Injuries are a huge part of the fantasy football season. This year, they have already taken a bite out of the fantasy production of many teams with extended injuries to such players as Adrian Peterson, Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, Ameer Abdullah, and more. The hits just keep coming! This week we’ll look at a few key injuries that may change the direction of some fantasy match-ups.
Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
Newton is in the league’s concussion protocol and has a number of tests to go through and pass before he can suit up on Monday Night Football. Still likely to play, but it puts a lot of owners in a tough spot if he ends up sitting out!
Carson Palmer (QB, ARZ)
Palmer is no ‘Spring Chicken’ and he is also in the concussion protocol for now. The difference for Palmer is that he is scheduled to play on Thursday. If he doesn’t go, Drew Stanton will fill in and likely make the Cardinals look even worse than they already have this season.
Trevor Siemian (QB, DEN)
Siemian has been one of a few surprises this season, putting up some great numbers recently. With a sprain in his non-throwing shoulder, Siemian could easily start under center on Sunday but the Broncos’ healthy new toy Paxton Lynch is also chomping at the bit to play after getting his first NFL snaps in week 4. Regardless, Kubiak has said, “Trevor is our starting Quarterback”, so as of right now we should expect him to resume active duties.
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)
A hairline fracture (and not having Tony Romo as QB) are both keeping Bryant from being especially fantasy relevant so far this year. With only Jerry Jones speaking up on the issue, we have no idea whether or not Bryant will start against the Bengals in week 5. Even if he did start, Bryant may be a suggested sit depending on your bench depth.
Kevin White (WR, CHI)
A sprained ankle has sidelined Bears’ wide receiver Kevin White for now – watch for more news later this week. White has yet to score a TD in the NFL, but with Hoyer playing QB his stats have improved over the beginning of the season. One of these games could prove to be a breakout for White if he avoids serious injury.
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI) & Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN)
Both Ertz and Eifert are scheduled to return to fantasy rosters everywhere. Temper expectations for Eifert in what could be his first game of the season this week, but the Bengals desperately need more targets on that offense and there’s a reason why Eifert is already nowhere to be found on waiver wires. Ertz has been sidelined with a rib injury since week 1, but he’s an exciting prospect with rising star QB Carson Wentz controlling his fantasy destiny. Could be a good year for Ertz.
Chris Johnson (RB, ARZ)
Now on IR indefinitely for a sports-hernia injury, this just means more carries for David Johnson.
Dwayne Washington (RB, DET)
A sprained foot and ankle could sideline Washington for a few games. Be aware of the situation, as The Lions are rapidly losing depth at the position and may look to someone like Karlos Williams or make a trade for other talent at the position if they cannot get healthy.
Doug Martin (RB, TAM)
Looks like Martin will miss one more week (the following week is a bye for the Bucs) and so Sims will continue to fill in as the lead back in Tampa Bay. Not a great play against Carolina, however.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)
News is starting to bubble up in the media about Gronkowski’s hamstring injury and subsequent lack of fantasy production. Not many people expected him to be this hampered early in the season, but if he can’t perform this week with Brady under center it’s already past time to panic.
Jordan Cameron (TE, MIA)
Cameron is out with another concussion and his past history of them means that we can’t expect him back anytime soon. Deep league? Dion Sims is not a terrible choice at the position against a Titans defense with some holes in it.
We're on to week 5, and I'm sure I'm not alone when I say that I am welcoming my Packers and Eagles back with open arms. This week we won't have our Jaguars, Chiefs, Saints or Seahawks - lots of guys that will be fill-ins this week. We recommend making sure that Latavius Murray and Darren Sproles find their way into your lineup, rather than warming your bench. On the receiving side, Eddie Royal might be a good option to pick up and start right away if you have bye week troubles, but stay away from DeSean Jackson if you can.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and it's pretty clear that this season will be a wild one...like every NFL season. The Falcons managed to drop 500 passing yards on the defending NFC champs, the Rams (?!) topped the Cardinals to go to 3-1, and the Patriots finally proved to be beatable, much to the dismay of Ben Affleck. They get Tom Brady back this week, so their vulnerability may be short-lived. The Cowboys' rookies had a field day against the 49ers, Will Fuller found the end zone twice, and Jordan Howard showed that he was ready for a full workload. The rest of the rookies weren't quite as successful, but there were still some noteworthy performances like the debuts of Paxton Lynch and Paul Perkins. Week 4 is in the books, and the decisions don't get much easier this week with 4 teams and several productive fantasy players on byes. Let's take a look at which rookies could help get you through...
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 5: @Det.): I've been hesitant to buy into Wentz as a QB1, but it's hard not to consider him a top-10 play this week with Brees and Russ Wilson on byes. Wentz gets to square off with the Lions hapless pass defense. Through 4 weeks, the Lions have allowed a 12:1 TD:INT ratio, and a league-worst 120.2 QB rating to opposing signal-callers. The Lions also rank dead last in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat, which measures defensive efficiency. I think the Lions will play a little better at home than they have on the road, but it's hard to not see Wentz as at least a lower-end QB1 this week.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): I don't think you need me to tell you that you should be playing Zeke, but let me give you some numbers to support it. The Bengals have been decent against the run and are likely to stack the box against Elliott (especially if Dez is out), but for the season Elliott has put up a 28-128-2 line on carries against an 8-man box. He also likely put to bed the worries that he'd keep getting vultured at the goal line after scoring a short TD last week. He's got 12 carries in the red zone on the year, and the rest of the team has 7. His volume gives him a safe floor, and those stats I listed should make you feel comfortable starting him in a slightly tougher matchup.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Howard is clearly established as the Bears' lead back after a strong performance against a weak Lions defense. The competition doesn't get that much tougher this week. The Colts rank 26th in run defense DVOA, and have allowed the 4th most RB fantasy points on the season. He should easily return RB2 value this week, and likely more if he's able to get in the end zone.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 5: @Oak.): Make sure that Antonio Gates is officially inactive before pulling the trigger here, but Henry has shown that he has a great connection with Philip Rivers thus far and has made good on most of his chances. The Raiders have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Henry is a solid streaming option again this week, and a great pickup if your starter is on a bye this week.
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Lynch acquitted himself well in his first regular season action, and there is a chance that Trevor Siemian could miss a game or 2 with a shoulder injury in his non-throwing shoulder. If Lynch does get the call, he's got a great chance at a top-15 week, which would make him a solid QB2 option and even a low-end QB1 play in really deep leagues. The Falcons allow the most QB points in the league and have allowed at least 3 passing TDs in each of their first 4 games. Lynch has shown that he can pick apart a bad defense last week against Tampa, and I'd like his chances to do it again if he gets the nod.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have allowed 10 passing TDs in 4 games, but they've been better versus the pass than that number would imply. They've ranked 10th in pass defense DVOA thus far, and the Cowboys may be without Dez Bryant again. WIth that said, Prescott has been a top-16 QB in each of the past 3 weeks. He's still a viable option as a low-end QB2, but I don't see a lot of upside for a top-10 performance.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 5: @Mia.): Sharpe has been inconsistent so far, but this is a plum matchup for him. The Dolphins have allowed at least 22 fantasy points to WRs each week, and have been absolutely shredded by WR1s to the tune of 117 yards per game. You're probably a little gun-shy with Sharpe after the way he's played over the past couple weeks, but he actually makes for a nice fill-in option if you have some byes to get through.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Green Bay has been torched by opposing WRs, allowing the 2nd-most points to the position, but the Giants' offense hasn't exactly been on track and the Packers' secondary is getting healthier and had an extra week to prepare. Shepard has been fairly consistent despite a less than stellar outing against the stingy Vikings. He's in play as a WR3/Flex option again this week. I'd be surprised if he totaled less than 50 yards, but I wouldn't bank on this being a big game even though the Packers have been giving up so much to WRs.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 5: @Min.): Fuller's blazing speed has helped him to be a difference-maker for the Texans so far, and likely frustrated some DeAndre Hopkins owners. The Vikings have been excellent against WRs though. They've allowed the 2nd-fewest points to wide receivers so far and just one WR touchdown. Only 3 different teams have allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards than the 9 allowed by Minnesota. This week is more likely to be a bust than a boom for Fuller, but he's still a borderline option with several top wideouts on byes.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NE): The return of Tom Brady could lead to the Patriots running up the score on Cleveland as they get out some frustration from last weekend's loss to Buffalo. As a result, there could be some garbage time stats for Kessler, but I wouldn't count on much here. The Patriots have allowed the 15th-fewest points per game to opposing QBs, and Kessler's previous two opponents had allowed the 14th- and 16th-fewest (Miami and Washington), and Kessler tallied just 9 and 10 points in those games. Expecting much more here would likely be a mistake.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Washington's breakout was put on hold when he suffered an ankle injury early on against the Bears. He had put up 14 yards on 3 touches before the injury, but now he's questionable for week 5 at best and faces a much tougher defense. The Eagles allow the 2nd-fewest points to opposing RBs, and I'd expect Zach Zenner to see some work even if Washington is able to play. The Lions also continue to force a square peg into a round hole with Theo Riddick mixing in on early down work as well.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. SD): The Raiders' backfield has quickly become a situation to avoid. Even Latavius Murray isn't a safe play at this point as things devolve into a full-blown 3-way split. Jack Del Rio talked up DeAndre Washington last week and mentioned that he would see more action, but he received just 8 touches on Sunday. He's averaged 7.25 per game. In the past 2 weeks, Latavius has handled 21 touches, Washington has had 15, and Richard 10. While San Diego is a great matchup, none of these guys are safe options. Even if you play Latavius, you're hoping he finds the end zone.
RB Josh Ferguson, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): Ferguson had his best opportunity yet in week 4, but failed to take full advantage of it as the Colts tried to battle back from behind in London. The rookie did pull in 7 receptions, which is nice in PPR leagues, but he totaled just 31 yards from scrimmage on 10 touches. Chicago is hardly an imposing matchup, but I would have to be really desperate in a really deep PPR league to even consider playing Ferguson this week.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Booker remains just a handcuff for CJ Anderson. He's a really talented handcuff, but the volume just isn't there for him to have stand-alone value. He's seen just 25 touches for 114 yards through 4 games (6.25 for 28.5 per game).
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 5: @Mia.): You probably aren't playing Henry this week anyway, but if you were considering him as a bye week fill-in, just be aware that he played only 9 snaps in week 4 and the Dolphins have allowed just one rushing TD. His snap share has been steadily declining as DeMarco Murray's strong play has continued. The volume won't be there for Henry to be a viable option this week.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Perkins may still be worth a stash, but for now he's best left on the bench. He managed to put up 80 yards in week 4, but he did so on just 4 touches. Bobby Rainey saw 11 touches and seems to have the receiving back role for now. Rashad Jennings should also be back before long.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NE): Louis has been playing a lot of snaps over the past 2 weeks with Corey Coleman out, but he hasn't turned it into much production with just 6 catches. He's a burner and is capable of beating the defense for a deep ball, but Cody Kessler has the shortest average target depth in the league thus far, and the Patriots are one of just 2 teams that haven't allowed a pass play of 40 or more yards. There isn't much upside here. Louis likely winds up with 30-40 yards on 2-3 catches.
WRs Charone Peake & Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Eric Decker is very likely out for this week (and potentially quite a bit longer), and the matchup is decent for the Jets, with the Steelers ranking 17th in pass defense DVOA. There's a decent chance that Peake or Anderson will make an impact this week, but good luck guessing which one. Anderson got the start last week, but Peake out-produced him on half as many targets, and also scored a TD on a fumble return. Because of that, I think I'd lean towards Peake if I were picking one of these two, but neither is more than a DFS tournament punt play.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 5: @Den.): Hooper did crack double-digit fantasy points last weekend, and the Broncos stout defense has been vulnerable to tight ends (Cameron Brate just went for 5-67 against them), but he produced those double-digit points on just one target. Jacob Tamme is the tight end you'd want in this matchup, not Hooper.
Rookies on byes in Week 5: RB CJ Prosise,SEA, WR Michael Thomas, NO, WR Tyreek Hill, KC
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 5: @Det.): The Lions still haven't allowed a running back TD this season, but they've allowed over 140 scrimmage yards per game to them and they rank 31st in run DVOA. It's only a matter of time before the TDs follow. Ryan Mathews should be back in this game, but head coach Doug Pederson has already said that they will use more of a committee approach, and Smallwood is coming off a very impressive game in week 2. He'll still have to contend with Mathews and Darren Sproles for touches, but I think he gets more work than Mathews this week and has some legitimate flex appeal in leagues with 12+ teams.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Was.): John Harbaugh declined to endorse Terrance West as the lead back despite his impressive week 4 performance, and Dixon seems to be on track to play in week 5. There isn't necessarily a ton of upside this week for Dixon, but with Justin Forsett gone, Dixon should absolutely be owned. West has never shown much ability as a receiver, and Marc Trestman's offense has averaged 9 passing targets per game to RBs after averaging 10.5 last year. Dixon should be the receiving back going forward, and he'll have a chance to earn a bigger role if West struggles. He's a better PPR add right now, but there is upside for him to become a viable standard league option as well.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 5: @Dal.): Boyd hasn't made the splash that many predicted he would, still struggling to beat out Brandon LaFell in the pecking order, but this week's matchup may work in his favor. The Cowboys rank 24th in pass DVOA, and 3 of the 4 passing TDs they've allowed to WRs have been to slot WRs (Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, and Jeremy Kerley). Boyd runs most of his routes in the slot. If Eifert returns this week, it'll hurt Boyd's outlook, but he's got a real shot to find the end zone this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you make some of the tougher lineup decisions this week to deal with your bye weeks. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week to not be caught off-guard on Sunday if someone winds up sitting at the last minute. The lack of the 'Probable' injury designation has made it tougher than ever to stay on top of who's in and out, so stay vigilant. If you want to tell me how wrong I am or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
In what seems like a blink of an eye we are already at the quarter post of the NFL season.
Once again last week provided an exciting weekend of, apparently, unpredictable football. This seems like a good time to remind you that a lot of season-long pools will throw out your lowest score of the year.
Let’s just throw week 4 into that category and move on …
Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
14 – PITTSBURGH over New York Jets – The Steelers were looking scary and now they have Le’Veon Bell back. Going to be tough to top them this year.
13 – MINNESOTA over Houston – A defense without JJ Watt is one to not really be feared.
12 – New England over CLEVELAND – New England lost at home last week…Tom Brady is back…Tom Brady is mad…this could be ugly.
11 – INDIANAPOLIS over Chicago – The Colts need a pick-me-up and they need it soon. A home game against the Bears should do the trick.
10 – GREEN BAY over New York Giants – OBJ is off, which means the Giants’ offense is out of options.
9 – OAKLAND over San Diego – The Chargers’ offense seems to be clicking, but their defense won’t be able to contain Derek Carr.
8 – LOS ANGELES over Buffalo – The Rams are 3-1, we’ll call this a deserved gift to be this high on the board.
7 – MIAMI over Tennessee – Someone has to win this one, right?
6 – DENVER over Atlanta – That now makes four weeks without a correct pick for the Falcons. So, again, take this pick for what it’s worth.
5 – BALTIMORE over Washington – The Ravens made a move this week to prove they are going younger. So look for another big game from Steve Smith Sr. … wait a minute …
4 – CAROLINA over Tampa Bay – This pick is based on Cam Newton not playing. IF he is, bump the Panthers up a few lines. But not too far, they have been confusing this season.
3 – DALLAS over Cincinnati – I have no good reason to explain this pick other than the game is played in Dallas.
2 – Philadelphia over DETROIT – The Eagles had an extra week for this one. This week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that CARSON WENTZ WILL HAVE HIS FIRST 4 TOUCHDOWN GAME THIS WEEK.
1 – SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona – The Cardinals were shaky before losing Carson Palmer this week. The 9ers may just be able to pull this one out.