Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Injury Updates:

Andrew Luck, QB, IND - partial shoulder separation may miss another game on a short week (Thursday vs. HOU)

LeSean McCoy, RB, BUF – hamstring injury aggravatated, 3-4 more weeks possible. Backup Karlos Williams suffered a concussion, Anthony Dixon may split carries with newly signed ex-Colts RB Dan Herron if Williams can’t go.

Lance Dunbar, RB, DAL – knee injury, out for season. This solidifies Darren McFadden as the Cowboys’ 3^rd down back and means that newcomer Christine Michael will start getting carries, but Joseph Randle looks to remain the lead back at this time.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – hamstring.. rumors of a grade 1 or 2 tear but nothing has been officially announced. Fred Jackson has a high-ankle sprain and will likely be gone for a few weeks. In the meantime Thomas Rawls will monopolize carries if Lynch can’t get back on the field – Seattle is not carrying any other RBs.

Nate Washington & Cecil Shorts, WR, HOU – Both have been somewhat productive this season so far across from DeAndre Hopkins, though the Houston offense is very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. We’ll likely see rookie Jaelen Strong take the field at this point but he is only a consideration in deep leagues due to the Texans’ QB woes.

Stevie Johnson, WR, SD – hamstring injury, has had the same thing in the past – may sideline him for a game or more so keep an eye out!

Jordan Reed, TE, WAS – Reed was playing well but it was only a matter of time before an injury caught up with him. Not only did he suffer a concussion in the game against the Eagles, but he also sprained his knee and his ankle. Yikes.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 10/6/15, Week 5 Preview)

Player Trends:

Blake Bortles, QB, JAC – After a disappointing week 1 against the Panthers stout defense (putting up 22/40 for 183 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT), Bortles has thrown 5 TDs with only 1 INT over the last 3 games (21.62, 17.28 and 19.02 points per game, respectively). He’s currently the #10 QB in overall fantasy points and we’re now entering into the bye weeks. Only 18% owned in Yahoo leagues currently, Bortles will likely be snatched off many a waiver wire to be played in weeks 5 and 6 against Tampa Bay and Houston (allowing 15.5 and 18.5 points per game, respectively. Plus, he gets Julius Thomas back shortly. Last year, Bortles finished as the 24^th highest scoring QB in standard leagues – can he keep up his current production to stay within the top 15 this year? Will Bortles finally lead Jacksonville to at least 6 wins in a season for the first time since 2010?

Sam Bradford, QB, PHI – Bradford hadn’t played in an NFL regular season game since 2013, but hopes were high this year for a landmark season out of the Eagles and a lot of that comes from the QB. So far this year he is only the 19^th highest scoring QB in standard leagues even though some experts had him as high as 7^th to start the season. Bradford has been trending down since week 1, having scored 15.44, 9.86 and then 8.52 fantasy points over the first 3 weeks, but his performance in week 4 against the Redskins was a bright spot, registering 270 yards and 3 TDs with no interceptions. Facing a hapless Saints’ passing defense giving up the 2^nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far in 2015, is this the beginning of a resurgence for the Eagles’ offense and Bradford’s fantasy hopes in general? He is owned in 63% of Yahoo leagues, and so likely not available, but looks to be a great spot start (at the very least) in weeks 5 and 6 against the Saints and the Giants.

Todd Gurley, RB, STL – Gurley didn’t play in an NFL game until week 3 against the Steelers, but he was really only getting his feet wet in that game, mixing in for a few touches only. In Week 4, Gurley broke out in a big way with 19 rushes for 146 yards and 2 catches for 15 yards. He didn’t hit pay dirt, but it’s looking like Gurley could definitely be a workhorse for this offense and a weekly mention among the top RBs. The Cardinals have a fairly stingy rushing defense, so this was a good test for Gurley. As the season progresses, the Rams play quite a few soft rushing defenses including Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago and Green Bay. Will Gurley continue to run all over them as was foretold by so many after the draft this year? Could he end up being a top 10 RB when the dust clears?

C.J. Anderson, RB, DEN – Anderson has only scored 17.4 points total so far this season, which basically makes him a big, red, neon sign flashing the words, ‘DISAPPOINTMENT’. Some of this can be attributed to the injury issues that Anderson had in the first few weeks, but the fact that the Broncos have looked more and more towards Ronnie Hillman in clutch game situations tells the story. No TDs on the year and no games with more than 50 rushing yards are certainly leading fantasy team managers that have played Anderson each week to frustration. Does C.J. get his groove back? Will Ronnie Hillman take the reins of the Broncos’ rushing offense, or will they just continue with the current RBBC that is shaping up in Denver?

Allen Hurns, WR, JAC – Hurns is currently sitting as the 21^st highest WR this year with a total of 41.40 fantasy points in standard leagues. He started off slow (so did Bortles), but has since scored 6.8, 13 and 17.6 fantasy points in his last 3 games, respectively. Against the Colts this past weekend, Hurns had 15 targets and brought down 11 receptions for 116 yards and 1 TD. He goes on to play the Bucs this week who have given up the 10^th most fantasy points to WRs. Is there enough room for several receivers on the Jacksonville offense? Maybe. Hurns is trending up but he does have to face the Bills and the Jets in his next two matchups. Regardless, he is an excellent spot start this coming week with 4 teams on bye. He is only 21% owned. *included in week 5 waiver picks

Marvin Jones, WR, CIN – There has been a lot of talk about Jones over the past few years. The Bengals have been clicking on offense this season, but there are a lot of mouths to feed: A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Mohamed Sanu are also soaking up targets, not to mention Giovani Bernard. We thought that Marvin Jones was settling in as the WR2 this year, but it looks like Eifert has usurped that role, leaving Jones as a boom or bust play on a weekly basis. His next game is against Seattle, who boasts a top passing defense, so it’s likely that Jones will not be a play in week 5 except in desperation. What do you do with a guy like Marvin Jones? Drop him? Keep him on your bench for a good matchup and roll the dice? His last 4 games have resulted in scores of 1.9, 11.1, 15.4 and 1, respectively.

Gary Barnidge, TE, CLE – Who is this guy? Seriously, I had barely heard the name ‘Barnidge’ until this week 2, when he exploded onto the scene with 6 receptions for 105 yards and 1 TD. His past 4 games have resulted in scores of 3.8, 1.7, 16.5 and 13.5 and he has scored TDs in the last two while averaging 8 targets per game. Will this 30-year-old tight end continue to act as a security blanket for Josh McCown and a redzone threat? Week 5’s matchup has him going against the Ravens who have somehow only allowed 8 receptions for 31 yards to all tight ends that they have played. Would it be crazy to play Barnidge against the Ravens knowing this information? *included in week 5 waiver picks

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! I hope you managed to cash in on the big days of Todd Gurley, TJ Yeldon, Duke Johnson & Karlos Williams in an eventful week 4. Gurley’s breakout came a week earlier than I expected, and Andrew Luck’s absence kept the Jaguars running deep into the game allowing Yeldon to break the century mark. The other two guys I was already high on in last week’s Rookie Report. Unfortunately, Melvin Gordon didn’t carry over the good vibes from that quartet. At WR, Amari found paydirt again, and some less heralded rookies like Willie Snead and Jamison Crowder made a splash as well. Let’s take a look at what we can expect in week 5…

Rookies to Start:

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 5: @GB): Wasn’t this guy impressive last week? Facing a really tough run defense, he gashed the Cardinals in a big way in the 2^nd half and led the Rams to a huge upset win. Pounding the rock with Gurley will be the formula going forward for the Rams, and the Packers’ run defense isn’t one I’m afraid of. The Packers will likely load up to stop him, and very well could run away with the game, making the run game useless, but I think Gurley is good enough to overcome that. I think the Rams feed him early and often, and they stay in this game en route to an RB1 day for Gurley. He’s ready to be unleashed.

Yeldon has 70 carries and 14 targets this season.

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 5: @TB): Yeldon didn’t quite have the coming out party that Gurley did last week, but he did have his best day as a pro and topped the century mark in rush yards for the first time in his career. He has a good chance to make it two in a row, and a solid shot to find the end zone as well. Yeldon is surprisingly 3^rd in the NFL in total carries, and also has at least two receptions each game. The Bucs have allowed over 100 rushing yards and at least 1 rushing TD in 3 of their 4 games this year, and with no one around to threaten Yeldon’s workload, he could produce like a borderline RB1 this week.

RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): Obviously this hinges on whether or not Karlos can play. He’s still in the concussion protocol, but if he’s able to play, he should probably be in the lineup. His talent is real, Shady McCoy should be out again, and the Titans have allowed 104 RB rush yards per game and 3 rushing scores in the past 2 games. Williams should be a very solid RB2 if he starts.

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): I’m not nearly as high on Cooper this week as I have been the past couple…the Broncos’ pass defense has been pretty impressive. Let’s face it though, if you have Amari, you’re going to play him. If you want a bright spot, the Broncos did look less than impressive in week 4 against the Vikings WRs. They allowed WRs to put up totals of 25 catches, 246 yards and zero touchdowns in the first 3 weeks combined. The Vikings WRs tallied a 21-249-1 line in week 4. Go ahead and get Amari in there, but know there is some risk.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): The Bills sound like a daunting matchup on paper with their great d-line and Rex Ryan’s aggressive schemes, but they have been shredded through the air so far. The Bills are allowing the 3^rd most QB fantasy points per game so far, and have allowed at least 15 points and multiple TDs to each QB they’ve faced. The guys they’ve faced are pretty good (Brady, Luck, Eli & Tannehill), but this defense shouldn’t be feared as much as you’d think. Mariota has low QB1 upside and is a solid option in 2QB leagues.

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Jax.): This recommendation is for 2 QB leagues, but Jameis could be a decent low end QB2 option this week. The Jaguars have allowed 293.5 yards passing and 1.5 TDs per game, and it’s only a matter of time before Winston starts clicking with Mike Evans. What should make this really interesting is that the turnover-prone QB faces a defense that has just one interception on the year. There is decent upside, and a 250 yard, 2 TD day is within reach.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 5: @Atl.): It’s hard to get a read on how Jones and Alf are going to split carries, but there is some upside against Atlanta. The Falcons allow a league-worst 26.3 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, but there is some reason to believe that the biggest beneficiary of the matchup will be Chris Thompson. Thompson is clearly the receiving back in this offense, and Atlanta has allowed 365 receiving yards to RBs and just 318 rushing yards. The good news for Jones…the Falcons have allowed 7 rushing TDs, and Jones has received 9 red zone carries in the last 3 weeks to 6 for Alfred Morris. I love Matt’s chances of finding the end zone this week, but his yardage may be limited. View him as a boom-or-bust flex option.

RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 5 vs. Pit.): Gordon failed to break out in a great matchup last week. It’s hard to see him doing so in a much tougher matchup this week. I’d lean toward sitting him this week, but you might not have any better options. Pittsburgh did struggle to slow down Justin Forsett last Thursday on the short week, but they allowed just 167 total RB rush yards in the first 3 games. The Steelers have 11 days to get ready for Gordon and the Chargers. The sledding could be tough.

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 5: @Bal.): The matchup gets much tougher for Duke this week. The Ravens did allow 100-yard rusher for the first time since 2013 last week, but the guy who broke the century mark was LeVeon Bell. I’m not ready to put Duke at that level yet. With the way he’s played the last couple weeks, Johnson has earned a bigger role and is worthy of flex consideration. His best area of point production is as a pass catcher though, and Baltimore has allowed just 19 RB receptions through 4 games. Tread carefully with Duke.

In case you aren't getting it, this is Willie Snead.

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Ari.): The Cards have been tough on every RB they’ve faced other than Gurley, and the Lions’ run game has been abysmal. When you add in that he’s ceeding passing game work to Theo Riddick, it’s hard to see a big day for Ameer. He’ll get a decent amount of volume in this one in a game I think the Lions will actually be competitive in, but like Gordon, if you have better options you should probably use them instead.

WR Willie Snead, NO (Wk. 5: @Phi.): You may be asking yourself ‘Who is Willie Snead?’ You should already know the answer. While the Saints’ offense has struggled to get going, Snead has quietly made his way up the depth chart, clearly passing Brandon Coleman and now possibly climbing over Marques Colston as well. He’s developing a great rapport with Drew Brees, and this week he faces off with an Eagles’ defense that has allowed at least 25 WR fantasy points to every team they’ve faced except the Dez-less Cowboys. Willie has caught at least 4 passes each of the last 3 games, and put up a season best 6-89 line against Dallas last week. He has a real chance to at least duplicate that against Philly. He’s a reasonable WR3 option this week, especially in PPR.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Agholor made the most impressive play of his young career last Sunday, making a ridiculous one handed catch on a deep ball from Sam Bradford. On the very next play, he fumbled a pitch on a reverse. That’s the kind of season it’s been for Agholor…a frustrating one, but there are reasons for optimism. His playing time hasn’t dipped, and the Eagles finally looked like they were getting the deep passing game figured out in week 4. I’m still scared to start him, but there’s upside for a decent day against a mediocre defense. The more this offense gets rolling, the better things will get for Agholor.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 5: @Cin.): The Seahawks are hopeful that Marshawn Lynch will be back this week, and if he is, you want no part of Rawls. The Bengals’ run defense is no joke with Geno Atkins terrorizing the middle of the line again, and the Seahawks’ run game hasn’t been the same without Max Unger at center and with non-blocker Jimmy Graham at TE. The Bengals are vulnerable to backs catching passes out of the backfield, but it was telling that FB Brandon Coleman was lining up at running back in some passing situations after Fred Jackson went down. I’m not sure Rawls has the skills to take advantage. If he gets the start, I’d expect similar output to what he produced on Monday night.

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 5: @Det.): Johnson did factor in again last week with Andre Ellington out another week, but AE is all but certain to return for week 5. DJ should slip to 3^rd in the pecking order for touches this week against a defense that has allowed just 9 RB fantasy points in each of their last 2 games. Arians referred to him as the odd man out.

WR Ty Montgomery, GB (Wk. 5: vs. StL): Montgomery was very quiet against a very suspect 49ers secondary. The Rams are much better than SF on the back end. Despite getting a bunch of snaps, Montgomery isn’t producing enough to be a viable starting option this week.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 5: @Cin.): It was a good sign that Lockett finally got involved in the passing game a bit more this week, but the Seahawks just haven’t had enough passing game volume to make any of their WRs a weekly start. Lockett remains a standout WR3 if your league awards points for return yards, but for now he’s more of a WR4 or 5 in regular PPR leagues.

WR Chris Conley, KC (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): I considered putting Conley in the ‘sleeper’ section this week, but I’m just not sure there will be enough extra to go around after Charles, Kelce and Maclin get their touches for Conley to have a big day. I’d expect his increased playing time to continue if Albert Wilson is out again, but I doubt it turns into a big fantasy day even in this plus matchup.

TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Even if Gillmore is out again, Maxx is still struggling to make an impact. Granted, the Ravens are even more short-handed for pass catchers with Steve Smith out, but I still think Maxx will be hard-pressed to top 50 yards this week. I personally think Gillmore will be able to play, which would hamper Williams’s value even more.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Keith Mumphery, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Mumph appears likely to get the start this week with both Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts already ruled out for Thursday night’s tilt with the Colts. Jaelen Strong was drafted higher than Mumphery, but he was beaten out by the MSU product in training camp. Vontae Davis is questionable for this week, and if he plays, I’d expect a few extra targets to go Mumphery’s way while Davis covers DeAndre Hopkins. Even if Davis is a go, Mumphery still managed to see 7 targets while Hopkins saw 22 last week. Expect a healthy workload for the rookie, and even with Ryan Mallett at QB should have a pretty solid game.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Here’s a quick fun note on Dorial…he ruined the NFL’s shot at an arrest-free month on September 30^th. The offense? Unpaid parking tickets. He was released after paying the $92 ticket. Arrests aside, DGB is a red zone monster, and the Bills have allowed 7 passing TDs to WRs in just 4 weeks. Green-Beckham is the best bet to get one this week, and coach Ken Whisenhunt has talked about getting him more involved. He’s a great punt option in DFS tournaments this week.

WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 5: @Atl.): It looks like there is a good chance that DeSean Jackson is out again, and Crowder has really come on in the last two weeks, tallying 13 catches and 110 yards in those contests. The Redskins figure to be throwing plenty once again to keep pace with the high-powered Falcons’ offense, and the likely absence of Jordan Reed should increase Crowder’s targets. He has great upside as a PPR WR3 this week in a plus matchup, and he’ll be dirt cheap in daily leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps decide some of those tough rookie lineup decisions this week. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Working the waiver wire is an important skill for all fantasy team managers, regardless of their team's record. Sure, it may be easier to sit back and relax if your team has been performing at a high level these past several weeks - but that's exactly what you shouldn't be doing. There is always someone who is not performing up to expectations and there are always up and coming players on the wire to bring onto your roster and hope that they will end up being the Victor Cruz or Devonta Freeman of that year. Generally, we recommend not sticking with players week after week who are under-performing and instead picking up one of our waiver wire picks and crossing your fingers. On the other hand, teams that have been performing poorly can catch back up with a great pickup like Charcandrick West or Brandon LaFell. So choose wisely this week as you're browsing the waiver wire and keep our picks in mind. Happy hunting!

Quarterbacks

Josh McCown, CLE – Wasn’t this guy coaching high school football like 3 years ago before the Bears called? It really should come as no surprise that a journeyman QB like Josh McCown is finding success with the Browns. In any case it doesn’t really matter who it is or what team. The bottom line is that in his last 3 games he has 1154 yards with 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. There are plenty of underperforming quarterbacks with better names out there. You know who they are and if you’re one of them then you should pick up McCown.

Jay Cutler, CHI – He makes his second consecutive appearance this week. While his fantasy scores have yet to truly impress his attempts and consistency are important to look at. The Bears continue to battle and Adam Gase seems to be getting the most out of Jay Cutler. His numbers are also being hindered by the fact that he is working with inexperienced WR5’s and 6’s. I really like Jay Cutler’s matchup next week against a dismal Detroit Lions team.

Running Backs

Charcandrick West/Knile Davis, KC – It’s always a sad day when a top running back goes down. At least for the owner who drafted him it is. This one is a double dose but I am leaning towards Charcandick West as the pick up here. West proved himself and was the backup before Jamaal Charles went down. Knile Davis will no doubt see an increased roll as well. Andy Reid seems to like West more at this time and he should be targeted first.

Charles Sims, TB – The second repeat of the week. Charles Sims is still only owned in 19% of leagues. He now has 3 weeks of consistent numbers to go on. He added four more receptions in week 5 for 85 yards. While Doug Martin continues to impress in Tampa Bay I don’t see them changing what’s working. That means Sims remains a high end prospect when it comes to RBBC players as he continues to hit double digit fantasy points three weeks in a row.

Wide Receivers

Jamison Crowder, WAS – Over the last 3 games Jamison Crowder has 197 yards on 21 receptions. Much of his usage is due to DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed being sidelined with injuries. That being said in week 5 he caught all 8 of his targets and is developing great report with Kirk Cousins. It would be nice to see him get in the end zone. Again, it’s week 6 and the pickings are getting slim as we focus on less than obvious waiver targets. Jamison Crowder is a good pick up that you can stash when Jackson comes back. Honestly I could see his value stay strong even on Jackson’s return as the field will be spread more.

Brandon LaFell, NE – It is that time to consider reaching out for Brandon LaFell. He is still on schedule to return in week 7 or 8. He was the clear number 2 in New England last year as he set personal bests in receptions, yards and touchdowns. The way the Patriots continue to play (cheat) makes LaFell a much anticipated return for fantasy owners.  If you have the room on your bench and can wait a couple of weeks for his return then go ahead and grab him early.

Tight Ends

Jacob Tamme, ATL – A prime example of week 6 thin pickins. Tamme had a great week last week with Leonard Hankerson exiting the game and Julio Jones nursing an injury. Those injuries are exactly why I like Tamme for one more week at least. It’s a Thursday night game so the Falcons have little time to rest their wounds. The New Orleans defense is also pathetically bad this season.

Kickers

Robbie Gould, CHI – Chicago has surprised the last two weeks with comeback victories. Robbie Gould is actually the 7^th best kicker when you look at fantasy points this season. The Bears have an ability to move the ball, without actually getting in the end zone; A big plus for fantasy kickers. He is also one of the most accurate kickers in the game today. It’s pretty offensive he is only owned in 23% of leagues.

Defense/Special Teams

Atlanta Falcons – Streaming defenses is a fickle thing. You’re going to have a better idea in your individual leagues depending on who is available. If you are looking for a little advice heading into week 6 then my suggestion is Atlanta. They have New Orleans on Thursday night in week 6. Traditionally Thursday Night Football is underwhelming due to lack of preparation so it’s a plus for defenses. They also have a pretty nice schedule over the next four weeks with New Orleans, Tennessee, Tampa Bay and San Francisco.