Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Over the years, many different kinds of draft strategies have come about for fantasy football leagues - I've tried to lay out the basics below for a few of the draft strategies that I see more frequently, and posed some questions that we try to answer on the podcast. Do you have any comments or insights to add? Feel free to leave them in the comments section!

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/11/15: 5 Draft Strategies to Consider) 

Best Available

It may seem perfectly obvious to some, but one very serviceable strategy during drafts is simply to take the best available player at any position that is available to you at that time. The main issue people run across when using this strategy is taking too many players at the same position. Say, for example, that the best player available on the draft board for 5 rounds in a row is a wide receiver. Should you simply continue to draft the best available player and hope to make trades later to make up any discrepancies at other positions? Should you compromise or bend your initial strategy to reach for another position that you have a bigger need at?

Zero RB
The prevailing strategy for a long time in Fantasy Football was to load up on RBs early. This was for a few reasons: RBs tended to be used as the focal point of the offense for a lot of teams (at least up until recently), RBs seemed to be more consistent than their WR counterparts on a week-to-week basis (at least up until recently) and there was a more severe drop off of talent at the position (since most teams had one particular RB that they fed the football. More recently, a lot of teams are favoring throwing the ball more consistently and using a RB-by-committee approach.
What does that information tell us? RBs are still an extremely valuable position for a fantasy football team, but recent changes to the game and to how the position is being used in the NFL have forced a shift toward WR value being closer to the top, or in some cases eclipsing the value of their more grounded counterparts. There are exceptions, and most of those involve either running backs that are also heavily involved in the passing game (Jamaal Charles & LeVeon Bell) or guys that still hold roles similar to those of the old days of smash mouth football (Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson).

Going with the Zero RB strategy asks you to forego the conventional fantasy wisdom that RBs are the most important assets to a team, and instead draft top-tier WRs, a TE and possibly a QB before dipping into the RB pool and selecting a variety of low to middle end situational guys with upside. Proponents of this draft strategy tell us that the top few tiers of RBs in the draft have the highest variance and therefore should be avoided. In other words, instead of high-risk picks at the beginning of the draft, you should be selecting guys that can offer a consistently good performance on the field while leaving some of that associated risk behind. Does this kind of strategy make sense even when you have the 1st or 2nd pick? Does the idea of Zero RB drafting get more enticing in a PPR league when WRs receive a rankings boost?

Value Based
Value Based Drafting (VBD) is a term that has been around since the 90’s. It refers to a particular strategy: by analyzing player’s past performances and calculating projections for them, and determining what the baseline player at each position is, you can determine the value of a player (which, using this strategy, is not simply how many points a player can score but rather how many more points he scores at his position than other players at the same position.

For example, although QBs score a large amount of points in most leagues, they are not usually among the most valued picks during the draft because in general they have low relative value compared to other positions at the same draft pick. That’s not to say that a player such as Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck will not score more fantasy points at the end of the year than other QBs, but the difference between their points and the QB baseline will be smaller than players like Marshawn Lynch relative to the RB baseline or Antonio Brown relative to the WR baseline. The problem is that these determinations rely on projected statistics, which are only estimations even if they are based on factual data.

Taking a look at the VBD data from 2014, for example, we can see that Rob Gronkowski was 40 points higher than the next best tight end in 2014 (Jimmy Graham). This tells us that if you can’t get Gronkowski in a draft, you should wait longer to select a tight end because their relative value decreases after Gronk. The same goes with Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. If unable to land one of these two QBs last year, you were better off waiting until later rounds and instead taking players at RB and WR that would be the difference needed to win games.

Guided Tour
A strategy that I see all too often but will always encourage people to avoid. Far too many times, people walk into a draft with a set strategy in their head – not a strategy based on player value or lack thereof, but with a strict plan of what positions to target and in what order. I used to do this too, when I first started playing fantasy football. I would look at the previous year’s performance, or what positions seemed to have the best players available at the top rounds and create a roadmap in my head for the rest of the draft. RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, QB.. or WR, RB, RB, WR, RB, RB, WR, etc.

It makes sense in a very shallow sense. This also applies to people that draft a starting lineup and then begin to select players for their bench. Regardless of which strategy you choose to adopt, you should never, ever have a preconceived idea of which rounds that you want to draft specific positions in. The draft itself should dictate that. Besides that, you’re more likely to succumb to picking a positional player at the end of a run if you are thinking in this way. Don’t do it!

Late-Round QB

The Late-Round, or “Zero QB” strategy has become a popular one recently as well. There are so many quarterbacks in this league that produce at a consistent level, that the drop-off after the first few is not very large. In this case, doesn’t it make sense to wait until later rounds when you get take someone like a Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning or Philip Rivers? Those guys all have top 10 potential but at a 9th or 10th round price in a standard league.

This is a bit of an offshoot of both VBD and Zero RB strategies, as the value in picking a quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck is not deemed high enough and it makes more sense to fill those slots with players that provide more of an advantage in a match-up. Just for example, say that you’re playing against someone that took a QB in the 4th round (Drew Brees, for example). Well, instead of Brees there you could have had someone like Brandin Cooks or DeAndre Hopkins. Signing on to this particular theory is as easy as saying that you would rather have DeAndre Hopkins and Ryan Tannehill than Drew Brees and Kevin White. I would. Would you?

Tips from 'Beer4TheBeerGod' – big contributor to the /r/fantasyfootball subreddit:

1. Know thy league. If your league uses PPR and your cheat sheet is for standard scoring you're putting yourself at a disadvantage. Know your roster requirements, number of teams, starting lineups, and all of your scoring rules. Things like 2QB, keepers, superflex (which is a nice way of saying 2QB with the option to fail), big play scoring, and six point passing touchdowns can dramatically alter how you draft. You should also know your opponents and their tendencies. Is one player a massive homer? Consider how that will affect his draft strategy. Does your league tend to draft QBs super early? Exploit that by picking up valuable skill positions and going with a streaming QB approach. This also applies to whatever sources your opponents use to draft, such as the default rankings.

2. The level of risk you are willing to take should correlate with the round of the draft. Your early picks are not for flyers, they're for reliable sources of points that can form the core of your team. I've come to be very risk averse in my early picks, mostly because of the damage done by drafting guys like Darren McFadden or Toby Gerhart. Look at the history of your player and any disruptive factors (age, usage, coaching change, team change) that could increase the uncertainty of the prediction. I'm also not a fan of taking rookies in early rounds for this reason.

3. Know the opportunity cost of your draft choices. Opportunity cost is the essentially the price you pay for the road not travelled. In fantasy terms it's the value of the players you won't draft because of your choice, either because your positional need is decreased or because someone else will draft them. This is one of the core philosophies behind value based drafting, but it's more than just points. It requires you to not only know how you will draft, but ideally also your opponents. Will you drafting player X force your opponent to draft player Y, or will that guy still be around on your next turn? The greatest feeling in the world is when you make your pick and someone after you cries out in anguish.

4. Develop your own tools for draft day and practice with them. I started making BeerSheets because I wanted something I could print out, bring with me wherever I went, and know that I could follow it to create my team. It needed to be fast, easy to read, and provide enough information to make the right decision without overwhelming you with data. Some drafts let you bring computers, others are just yourself and your mind. Whatever the rules, make sure you have the tools available so that you can stay on top of the draft order and always get the most value.

5. Tiers are superior to rankings. There is no way to predict that player X will do better than player Y with enough fidelity to rank them before the season starts. This is why I'm such a fan of using tiers to determine the relative projections of players. Realistically if two players are ranked right next to each other then there probably isn't enough of a difference to matter and you should be considering other qualities such as historic performance, opportunity, injury risk, competition, and upside.

6. Don't be a homer, but it's okay to have multiple guys on the same team. Aside from bye weeks it's not that big of a deal. What you don't want to do is be predictable enough for someone else to exploit your tendencies. The other side of this is drafting players from your team's rival. Can you stomach having someone you hate on your team? If the value is there consider swallowing your pride. Moral victories are for losers.

7. Don't be afraid to reach. The best experts in Fantasy Football average a 60% accuracy. Remember that the numbers are just guesses, and if you have a gut feeling there's nothing wrong with going with it. In the end it's your team and you should be happy with it.

8. The less predictable a position, the later that position should be drafted. This means drafting kickers and DSTs very late unless your scoring rules are weird enough to require a special strategy. Unless your draft rules require that you fill out your roster then don't bother getting a kicker. Use that last pick on a total flyer and see if anything changes leading up to Week 1. Just don't forget to pick up a kicker off the WW before your first game.

9. The maximum value you will get for your trade bait is the draft pick you just wasted, so don't even bother. Some people exercise a strategy of picking someone up with the express purpose of trading them immediately. Remember, the four QBs you cleverly picked up even though you didn't need them were passed over by everyone else. You just sacrificed a team need for a lottery ticket that isn't likely to pay off. This is a particularly egregious mistake in the top half of the draft. This is different from drafting a late round flyer and hoping they turn out to be a sleeper, which is sound draft strategy.

10. You can lose your league in the draft, but you win it in the waiver wire. No matter how well or poorly you draft, that's only a part of the game. Once the draft is done the real game begins. Follow the waiver wire religiously, and don't be afraid to drop your late round scrubs for something more promising if you get more information. I'm less enthusiastic about preseason trades unless you have access to new information or you're fleecing a homer.

11. Mock until you can draft in your sleep. Mock drafting is a fantastic resource. Not only is it fairly fun, but it also helps you see how players will be taken and understand trends. If you can get to the point where you can instantly see a reach or a steal then when the real draft happens you'll be far more prepared.

Let’s get ready for some football! In our discussion we’ll mostly be talking about standard leagues unless otherwise mentioned. But, in general, just keep in mind that pass-catching RBs will be slightly more valuable in PPR leagues and we’ll all be on the same page!

So last week we analyzed both the overvalued and undervalued QBs in the NFL this season by taking a quick look at our rankings for those players vs. the ECR (expert consensus ranking from fantasypros.com) and ADP (average draft position) that the players are currently going at. This week we’ll attempt to do the same thing with RBs.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/25/15: The Preseason RB Show!) 

I say attempt, because with any offensive positional player in the NFL that is not a QB the variance is going to be higher and depend a lot more on outside factors than for quarterbacks. Not to mention the fact that the likelihood or injury goes up substantially for these players, RB especially.

John Paulsen (of 4for4.com) recently wrote an insightful column about this very subject. In trying to determine whether or not wide receivers are safer picks at various points in the draft, he crunched quite a few numbers. Ultimately, his research seems to indicate that although the top 2 RBs in any given year will generally outperform any of the other WRs in the draft, the drop-off after that point favors WR value until later rounds. For example, over the last 10 seasons (after the top 2 RBs have been taken out of the equation) 5 of the next 7 receivers offer relative value (difference between points scored and points scored by a baseline player at that position) above their trend line, while that is only true for 5 of the next 11 running backs.

Another interesting bit is that RBs taken just a little bit later (early 2^nd round) tend to outperform those taken in the middle of the first round (relative to their draft position). Anyway, just something to keep in mind. Let’s get back to it!

Undervalued RBs

Antone Smith - #52 on our rankings, ECR #75 and ADP #61. We value Antone more highly than a lot of our colleagues because he is a very dangerous playmaker on the field. Already 29 years old, Smith has never had a substantial amount of touches until the 2014 season and he ended the season with 366 yards and 5 TDs on only 36 touches. Unfortunately for Smith, he broke his leg toward the end of the season last year and finds himself striving for carries behind the split backfield of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman but we know that when he gets the opportunity, he’ll make the most of it. Make no mistake, this is a flier or deep league pick only, but one that could pay off quickly should Smith see the field more than a few snaps per game.

Danny Woodhead - #25 on our rankings, ECR #42 and ADP #47. Woodhead is the little RB that could. He’s quick, scrappy and many people forget about the numbers that he put up during the 2013 season before he was injured at the beginning of 2014. In his first season on the Chargers, Woodhead rushed 106 times for 429 yards (4.0 YPC) and 2 TDs and put up 76 receptions for 605 yards and 6 TDs. Those numbers made him the #19 RB overall in standard scoring leagues in 2013. All signs point to Woodhead being healthy this year, and resuming his pre-injury role as a 3^rd down passing back and safety valve for Rivers which should lead to similar stats this year (although we will always plan for a regression from a career year).

Giovani Bernard - #18 on our rankings, ECR #28 and ADP #27. Bernard had a slight sophomore slump in 2014 and dealt with an injury toward the middle of the season. It seems that he is now firmly planted as the 3^rd down back behind Jeremy Hill, but even though we’re penciling Bernard in for less than 10 touches a game (down from the 16 that he averaged in 2014) he excels in the passing game and will certainly see more work in games where the Bengals fall behind on the scoreboard. At first glance it may appear that he is just a complementary back to Hill this season but the numbers say otherwise.

Chris Ivory - #20 on our rankings, ECR #27 and ADP #31. Ivory had some breakout performances in his first year with the Saints in 2010, but injuries held him back from being productive in subsequent years until he was traded to the Jets for the 2013 season. He has steadily improved there (putting up 7 TDs and almost 1000 all-purpose yards last year on 216 touches) and the other Jets’ RBs are underwhelming, to put it lightly (Bilal Powell, Zac Stacy, Stevan Ridley). With the recent news that Ivory may start being more active in the passing game and the current lack of quality depth at the position, we may see him in more of a 3-down role which more than warrants his position here.

Overvalued RBs

Rashad Jennings - #42 on our rankings, ECR #30 and ADP #24. Jennings had the #1 RB job for most of the 2014 season, with Andre Williams filling in at some spots and vulturing some carries as well. We’ve seen Jennings perform well, putting up 4.5 YPC in 2013 for Oakland and scoring 6 TDs that same year, but unless lightning strikes for Jennings it is likely he performs closer to his middling performance last year (only 3.8 YPC) and the Giants will form some kind of committee with Shane Vereen and Andre Williams preventing too much relevant production from Jennings this year.

Bishop Sankey - #56 on our rankings, ECR #38 and ADP #42. Sankey struggled mightily in 2014 despite being basically handed the job as lead back in Tennessee (3.7 YPC and only 2 TDs on 152 carries). With rookie David Cobb and scatback Dexter McCluster also on the squad, Sankey looks to settle in to a role as the 1a of a big committee. We’ve seen Sankey on sleeper lists and as someone to target in deep drafts but I don’t see any pluses here, especially as a part of such a young offense that has yet to prove themselves (and veteran talent Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas don’t exactly inspire trust).

Isaiah Crowell - #43 on our rankings, ECR #33 and ADP #33. Cleveland Browns.. need I say anymore? Alright, Crowell does have a little upside having scored 8 TDs last year and averaged just more than 4 YPC, but we haven’t seen either Crowell or Terrance West (both involved in a battle of irrelevancy last year for the lead back position in Cleveland) really show well on the field, which means that rookie RB Duke Johnson could just as easily find himself with the job. Seems that the overvalued RBs we’ve discussed are all having issues solidifying a role in their respective offenses.. Crowell is no different.

Carlos Hyde - #27 in our rankings, ECR #19 and ADP #17. Here’s another tough situation: although Hyde currently replaces Gore as the RB1 in that offense (which did add Reggie Bush as a passing-down back), it’s impossible to project Hyde as a top 20 pick based on his limited demonstrated skills in the NFL. Only rushing 83 times for 333 yards (4.0 YPC) last year does not tell us much, unfortunately. Even if Hyde does get the bulk of the early down work for the 49ers, though, their personnel list has been devastated in the off-season and those losses and the change to new team management does not bode well. No, it’s more likely that their offense has to pass the ball more because they fall behind in games without a dominant defense and Bush will probably factor more into that game plan than Hyde.

Hi everyone,

It's about that time. A few ground rules I want you all to remember as the season goes on:

1. My blogs are always a week behind, so if you see your team is not in their rightful 1st place slot at the time, don't be mad, lol. They will be the next week.
2. Don't kill the messenger, I read, I pass on, that's it that's all.

So as my Bears go 2-0 so far in the preseason, other things have been going on.  I know, it's only preseason but I don't care, say it with me people, A WIN IS A WIN!

N.Y. JETS:
Seems that Coach Bowles is making it tiring for his Jets to talk about "jaw break gate".  Anyone who talks about the sucker punch that Ike gave to Geno, has to run laps. Like that's going to work, some of these boys run laps for a living coach, I'm just saying.

NEW YORK GIANTS:
WR Odell Beckham already owns one of the top selling jerseys in the NFL. He has now inked a deal with ROAR beverages, never heard of it, so don't ask me. But, the CEO Roly Nesi said that OB embodies the spirit of this brand in the physical form. The loud, in your face, style in and off the field that kids want to emulate. I can go with that, but when he said "I think it's going to really change the way people look at a sports drink endorsement," he kinda lost me. We will probably gawk at the huge amount of $$ he got for the endorsement and if they put the pic of the one handed catch he made against Dallas I believe, I would look at the bottle, then I would grab my Gatorade. I am sure if it was not Dallas, someone will refresh my memory. But word on the street, he and Eli were not in sync for the first two preseason games.. now that's a reason for concern, Giants fans.

​OUCH, I HURT MY:
Yes, the injury bug is out there full force.  Some players will be back in 4-6 weeks and some are done for the season. Here's a look at the five biggest injuries coming out of games and practices in Week 2 of the preseason:

WR, Jordy Nelson: He has emerged as quarterback Aaron Rodgers' favorite target, posting career-highs last season in receptions (98) and yards (1,519) while catching 13 touchdown passes. The 6-foot-3 Nelson creates mismatches against smaller corner backs while also possessing the speed to burn defenses deep. He tore his ACL, no contact on this injury. He landed awkwardly while trying to cut after making a catch. The Packers were hoping for the better news, but it was not to be. Just got the official word yesterday that he is DONE for the season. "It's difficult to lose a guy like that in a meaningless game," said Rodgers, who made his disdain for the preseason clear during his post game news conference.

The only good news for Green Bay is that the Packers are deep at the position. Randall Cobb, who would be a No. 1 receiver for other teams, will likely replace Nelson in that role. Davonte Adams now steps into the starting lineup after off season work that drew raves from teammates and Packers head coach Mike McCarthy. Jeff Janis and rookie Ty Montgomery will vie for the No. 3 receiver spot while backup tight end Richard Rodgers appears ready to assume a bigger role in the passing game alongside starter Andrew Quarless.

Center, Maurkice Pouncey:  He is part of the reason why the Steelers finished with the NFL's second-ranked offense last year in the first season that Pouncey started all 16 games since 2010. He was injured Sunday when Packers safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix rolled up on his leg while tackling running back Le'Veon bell. His ankle was broken and it will take surgery to repair it.  He is out indefinitely, aka, the whole season. Cody Wallace, who started five games for Pouncey in 2013, will likely get the starting nod. He needs to shake some rust off.

WR, Kelvin Benjamin:  Like Nelson, his torn ACL was not due to contact. He crumpled last Wednesday when trying to cut in a passing drill during a joint practice with Miami. The Panthers announced that he will miss the 2015 season.​ Unlike the Packers, Carolina doesn't have another receiver like Randall Cobb who can step in for Benjamin. Devin Funchess is a big-bodied target like Benjamin, but some feel he isn't ready to handle the same type of load as Benjamin who caught 73 passes for 1,008yds and 9 TDs during his 2014 rookie debut. The Panthers will look to a small arsenal of players to replace Benjamin. It includes Funchess, Corey Brown, Ted Ginn Jr & Brenton Bersin. I bet they wish they would have picked up Reggie Wayne whom they had on their radar. He is now a Patriot.  But that may be a blessing in disguise that they let him pass through their fingers. Word on the street is that Wayne will mostly be serving in a mascot role, bringing leadership and a sure pair of hands as needed.  He just made his way bay from a torn ACL last season and he also is slowed by a triceps injury.  Wayne will be 37 in November, you do the math!! Belichick says that just have to see how it goes.

FS, Louis Delmas: The day before this injury, ex-Dolphin LB, Channing Crowder mentioned on his radio show that he noticed a hitch in Delmas running style. Crowder believes it came from Delmas making a quick but prmature return from last December's reconstructive knee surgery. Well, as fate would have it, the very next day, Delmas re-tore the ACL in his right knee and is out for the season. Walt Aikens, a 2014 4th round draft pick from Liberty, has replace Delmas in the Dolphins starting line up. Special teams ace Mike Thomas is now the top backup to Aikens & strong safety Reshad Jones.

Arizona nose tackle Corey Peters (Achilles tendon): Twenty months removed from shredding his right Achilles tendon while playing for Atlanta, Peters tore his left one last Thursday during practice. Peters was signed to replace the departed Dan Williams (Oakland) as Arizona's starting nose tackle. That responsibility now falls to Rodney Gunter, a 2015 fourth-round pick from Delaware State, with veteran Alameda Ta'amu serving as the backup.

On the Bears injury list, from what I heard, word is that Jay Cutler doesn't even know the names of some of the guys he will be throwing to this Saturday when they take on the Bengals at their home field. Like that's going to make a difference. We have so many guys out that I think I might borrow my grandson's Dolton Bears uniform, #54, and suit up to try and help my Bears this season. I'm just saying..

Overall Damage:
Former Packers TE, Tom Crabtree tweeted, "Preseason football is the worst," but that doesn't mean it will change.  For NFL owners who might even think of eliminating the 4 game preseason, it would mean a big loss of game day revenue.  It comes down to this: reducing player wear and tear is less important than the dollars generated from these preseason contests. Plus the owners say that the same injuries could happen at any time and they need the preseason to look at and evaluate the new guys.

The best approach for teams toward preseason contests is being ultra-conservative in how long starters and superstars play -- if at all -- to mitigate injury risk. For example, New England's Rob Gronkowski hasn't appeared in a preseason game since 2012. The absence certainly hasn't hurt Gronkowski's performance in the regular season as the NFL's top tight end.

A FEW OTHER THINGS:
The Houston Texans have named Brian Hoyer the Team's starting QB over Ryan Mallett.  I heard through the grapevine that Ryan is prettyyyy angry about that.

WHERE'S THE TRUST MAN!!
According to Bob Kravitz of WTHR, the Colts sweep the visitor's locker room at Gillette Stadium to check for bugs or listening devices. This is a sad tradition that the Colts have when playing the Patriots.  That in itself gets into their heads before the game. You are so focused on being cheated that you can't play the game, smh. The Patriots are now for sure the team that all other teams agree on.  They are cheaters! Jim McMahon, former Funky QB of the 1985 Bears Super Bowl team, says Belichick is a liar for sure and cheating isnt far behind. I think he's a little salty.

LAST WORD:
5 most boring NFL prime time match ups for 2015.....
As you all know, every team playing football in prime time is a must see game.  These are the ones that the "experts" at ESPN say that instead of watching, you can go wash your car or go out to dinner, etc. I'm just saying, there are 53 prime time games throughout the season. There are always a few that you can miss, and spend time with the family and score brownie points.

1. Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars, TNF, WK11. I'm falling asleep already. These two bottom feeding AFC South teams get a chance at prime time like everybody else. Even if they ONLY won a total of 5 games, COMBINED, last season. They played TNF in WK 16 last season with the Jaguars coming out on top 21-13. Hey, somebody had to win. My thoughts: I will probably work around the house on this one.
2. Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers TNF, WK12, Thanksgiving night. OK, stop laughing at my Bears. We are going to WIN this one, don't believe me just watch!!! OMG, this is what they said about my Bears playing the Packers, LMAO. This unexciting game might put you to sleep. In fact, it might have all of us snoring with a cocktail in our hands by halftime. With the Packers playing at home against what promises to be a suspect Bears team, this game has slaughter written all over it. The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 meetings with the Packers and with Jay likely to be under center, we can all expect that patented 2nd QTR interception to put this one away and send us all to bed. My Thoughts: Forget ya'll, my Bears are gonna win. They said that David wouldn't beat Goliath, didn't they, but guess what, Goliath went down!!
3. Tampa Bay Bucs @ St. Louis Rams, TNF WK15. In What will likely be QB Jameis Winston's prime time debut, this game does not offer much of a wow factor. Neither team will be anywhere near the run for a playoff spot at this point. This could be a TNF shutout, especially considering the Rams defense has been known to have its way with lower-scoring offenses in the past. The most we can hope for in this late season game is a sort of close scoring competition to keep us from changing the channel. My thoughts: Who really cares, my Bears will have already beaten GB on Turkey Day and I'll still be floating on that. Don't believe me just watch!!
4. New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys, SNF, WK16. Wait, this is funny, cuz Dallas is going to beat NYJ down, that's my prediction. Don't you all remember how well the Cowboys played during the stretch run in 2014? I do. The Jets, not so much. They will have their usual meager handful of wins, they will still think Geno is the answer and they will just not be a factor against the Cowboys, playing them in Dallas no less. I don't care who is the QB for the Jets in WK16, but if the Cowboy's have last year's December version of Tony Romo in the house, this game could be a blowout to the 3rd power. My thoughts: Dallas 46-Jets 7 or something like that. I'm just saying.
5. San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders, SNF, WK16. OK, this game is on Christmas Eve. Are you going to give up that mad rush for last minute shopping, I don't think so. If the Chargers are still led by Phillip Rivers in this one, they could very well be competing for a playoff berth. If the Raiders are competing for an actual playoff spot at this point, then something went really wrong in the AFC West. Then again, this might be the Raiders last home game in Oakland before heading to Southern California. The Raiders might actually put up a fight to win this one. My thoughts: The Raiders are moving???

​​
Lastly, I want to take a moment to say R.I.P. to Darryl Dawkins, AKA, Chocolate Thunder. He passed yesterday @ 58 years young, of a heart attack. If you don't know who he is, do yourself a favor and look him up. He was the reason they made shatter proof back boards & break away rims in the NBA. I loved watching him play with the Sixers.  As Shaq put it, "he was the father of the dunk, I am just one of his sons."

I tell you one thing, if this season is anything like the preseason was, we are in for a roller coaster ride.  There is so much petty stuff going on in the NFL, I swear I feel like I am reading a script to 90210. Ya'll know what I'm talking bout, don't play like you don't, lol.

MORE INJURIES:
Just when you thought it was safe to go back out on the field, BAM, a few more guys get jacked up. Green Bay got a second scare when Randall Cobb took a fall on his shoulder. They originally thought it was a broken collar bone but an MRI showed that it was an AC joint sprain. You guys KNOW, Cobb is NOT missing his chance to shine in GB, come on man, you thought he was going down that easily, not today people, not today. He will be playing.

​RB, Duke Johnson for Cleveland ended up on the bad end of a concussion in the 1st half of Saturday night's win over Tampa Bay. They said that he was ROCKED on a ​hit by Bucs CB Mike Jenkins and could be out for some time. The Browns were putting a lot of hope in Johnson for the season but he hasn't been able to stay healthy. With Johnson's injury and throw in veteran Shaun Draugh and Glenn Winston, this has left the Browns thinner than Olive Oil at the running back position. 2nd year backs Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell have pretty much NOT lived up to expectations and Pettine said the team may consider other options at the position. In a word, some people are about to get the boot. There's more, word is Ray Rice could be one of those options. All Pettine said is, "if we do come to the decision that we need to add a back that is not here, we'll look at the list and see who's open." Talk about not making a firm commitment.

I didn't believe it until just now. They say twins feel each others pain. Well Dolphins Center Mike Pouncey left the game against the Falcons with a knee injury when another player fell on his leg. and will undergo an MRI on Sunday. The injury left the Dolphins with only two OL starter at their regular season. If you recall, his twin brother Maurkice Pouncy, Steelers Center, was cut down early with an ankle injury in preseason week 2, that will require surgery and he is out indefinitely. Hot off the presses today, MIKE Pouncey practices Monday and will be ready for WK1. At least one of them is still standing.

It's not enough that we get some of the worst winters ever, but we [The Bears] are still dropping like flies.  So the Bears cut Tim Jennings, like they got a wide selection of players at any position at this point, but you cut a veteran player who could maybe help some of the youngsters that are coming in. With that being said, we lost the top two nose tackles to injuries during the preseason loss to the Bengals on Saturday. Veteran Jeremiah Ratliff left the game early and when he returned he was wearing a walking boot. The X-rays showed no fracture, but I am sure he will be out a game or two. Then 2nd round rookie Eddie Goldman suffered a concussion. I'm done with the injuries, too many to list anyway, it will never end.

IT'S GET'N HOT IN HERE!!!
OK, so there is a war in the Redskins' locker room. RGIII has been benched for the start of the season, even though his face is on the ticket for WK1. The starting honor now goes to Kirk Cousins, he is the new starting QB for the Redskins. Things have taken such a turn for the worse with the already-dysfunctional relationship between Griffin and the Redskins that reports indicate many high-ranking officials and several coaches want to move on from the quarterback. Sources have also said that the team discussed trading RG3. I heard St. Louis was peeking and another team too, can't remember which one.  But get this, they had an article explaining why RG3 would be a good fit in Chicago. My thoughts: No thank you, we still got some cleaning up to do ourselves.

IT JUST WON'T DIE.
That pesky "jawbreak" is still in the headlines. So my CI told me that the whole thing was about money and a promise not kept. Geno owed Ike $600. Geno promised to come to a charity event for Ike and then he doesn't show up. So Ike just wanted his $600 that he paid for Geno to come and $1000 for his charity. They even threw Mark Sanchez in the mix and said he would have gladly paid Ike back and given him money for the charity.   Come on man, you have an ATM right there in the locker room, but the way Geno's checking and savings is set up............well, you get my point. He paid for it in a more painful way and naturally, the locker room is split. My thoughts: I still think Geno Smith is overrated. Ryan Fitzpatrick will step up now.

As "deflategate" turns. So, Tom Brady's 4 game suspension was overturned. The Judge said that Tom was never told he could be suspended. You mean like if you rob a bank and you go to jail but then they overturn the sentence and let you out of jail because you were never told that you could go to jail for robbing a bank? Really, come on man.  I don't know what Brady did or didn't do, but you guys know that it always comes down to the money. You also know that if Brady doesn't play, it affects the money, do the math with me people.  Goodell was sucker punched on this one. He will NOT attend the season opener with the Patriots going up against the Steelers. Tom said the intern did it!  P.S. Snoop Dogg is not too happy with the judges decision, he's a Steelers fan. The NFL is already working on an appeal, stay tuned.

Speaking of interns.. so RG3 supposedly "liked" a tweet or post, whatever it's called on instagram, bashing the Redskins organization.  RG3 said, no way, you ain't pinning this on me, the INTERN did it. He put a full post on instagram, big ole giant letters saying, "I did not "like" that Post." Which I guess is what folks do when they like a post, lol. Really RG3, kinda sounds like, "I did not have sexual intercourse with that woman." We all know how that turned out. I'm just saying.  Just in this morning, it's 5 teams that are looking at RG3, they all only have slight interest, none have a strong interest.

​FYI: MO FOOTBALL, MO FOOTBALL.
In case you are looking for some really good football shows that showcase a different player/team/coach that played or coached over the years, you might want to check out, "A Football Life" and "30/30".  I have watched a lot of them but a few that really stood out were the ones on Bo Jackson, Jerry Rice, Walter Peyton and Lyle Alzado.  Last night, I watched  "The Book of Manning."  I love P. Manning and I think Eli is cool and I knew their dad Archie played and brought Ole Miss back to life, where Eli followed in his footsteps and attended Ole Miss and broke almost all of his dad's records. Peyton opted for Tennessee which brought him and his dad death threats and all kind of crazy hate mail. Then there was Cooper, the oldest, whose career was cut short by a disease that put him one hit away from a wheel chair, so he left the sports world. I was intrigued by a family where 2 sons of a QB went on to play pro ball, win Super Bowls and were MVP's in Super Bowls. Quick, name another family that has that mix?  If there is one, I would love to read up on them. I know about the Barber and Talib brothers already. Both shows are really good and if you are a football nut like me, you probably already know about these programs. Just my 2 cents.

Last tidbit. The K.C. Chiefs went undefeated this preseason. Did you know that the last 2 times they went undefeated in the preseason, they played in the Super Bowl those years?  No lie, lol. Maybe they will make it to the 50th in 2016.