Not too much to talk about this week – other than we hit on the top six lines last week. That is definitely worth mentioning.
No time to waste! Week 11! LET’S GO!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
14 – SAN DIEGO over Oakland – The Raiders get a rematch of the game that they came closest to winning. Unfortunately it’s now on the road against a fresh Chargers squad.
13 – Denver over ST LOUIS – Denver showed last week what they can do when they turn on the juice. The Rams just don’t have the offense to keep up with the Broncos.
12 – WASHINGTON over Tampa Bay – This is definitely more confidence in a team losing than a team winning. Tampa has showed us this year that changes are needed again. This time, make it more than just the uniforms!
11 – NEW ORLEANS over Cincinnati – Boy oh boy what has happened to the Bengals? It’s gotten so bad that it seems the old “Bungles” name may need to be dusted off and brought back out. Like the Rams against Denver, the Bung…no, not yet…the Bengals just don’t seem to have the offensive fire power needed to keep up with the Saints in the dome.
10 – MIAMI over Buffalo – The week starts with an AFC East matchup that may have the most meaning since the old Jim Kelly vs Dan Marino days. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot and the Dolphins should be able to take advantage of playing at home.
9 – GREEN BAY over Philadelphia – A lot of the Eagles success can be attributed to points put on the board by their defense and special teams. Aaron Rodgers won’t give Philly the opportunity.
8 – CLEVELAND over Houston – Cleveland needed a big road division win last week and they got it. Look for them to use that momentum to top a team starting a new quarterback.
7 – Pittsburgh over TENNESSEE – The Steelers were brought back down to earth in a big way in New York last week. It is hard for me to think the Pittsburgh can lose two straight against a lowly opponent, even if it is another road game.
6 – KANSAS CITY over Seattle – The champs simply have not been playing like the champs as of late. They almost lost to the Raiders and Giants at home in consecutive weeks and now have to go on the road to one of the toughest stadiums to play in. This week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that the Seahawks will NOT make the playoffs this year.
5 – Detroit over ARIZONA – Detroit heads to the desert at a very opportune time. Carson Palmer led the Cards to the best record in the NFL, signed a $50 million extension, and then tore his ACL days later. Drew Stanton won’t be able to keep up with a healthy Calvin and friends.
4 – CAROLINA over Atlanta – Everybody is wondering what is going on with Cam these days. He’s been struggling, but still should be able to pull out a home win against a weak Falcons offense.
3 – INDIANAPOLIS over New England – Wouldn’t be surprised to see this as the AFC Championship this year. Andrew Luck has been the MVP so far this year and to take the next step, he needs to win big games like this.
2 – NEW YORK GIANTS over San Francisco – Two straight weeks of the 49ers traveling to the eastern half of the country, this time all the way to Jersey, will prove to be too much.
1 – Minnesota over CHICAGO – Give me one good reason why I should have any confidence in the Bears right now? It’s a home game? Nope! They haven’t won a game at Soldier Field yet!
QB
- Mark Sanchez played badly last week despite his fantasy production being more than serviceable, but he'll bounce back next week at home against the Titans. The Eagles have quite a few weapons available to them and they are not afraid to go for those risky plays! I still believe that Sanchez is better than Foles and his struggles in New York were just as much a product of the lack of offensive talent and poor playcalling as anything else. We should see better chemistry and decision-making from Sanchez over the next few weeks.
(53% owned)
- Brian Hoyer has been playing well enough so far this season to rebuke advances from newly drafted rookie QB Johnny Manziel. Sorry, Johnny.. your time has yet to come. It IS time for Josh Gordon's return, though.. and apparently heralded by choirs of angels based on some reactions that I've read today! Anyway, Hoyer could show QB1 upside down the stretch with a weapon like Josh Gordon catching his passes.
(14% owned)
- Kyle Orton put together a string of quality games but more recently has been delivering up some poor performances. This should change pretty quickly as he goes up against the poor passing defense of the New York Jets in week 12. I would expect nothing less than 200 yards and 2 TDs for Orton when he and the Bills try to jumpstart their offense this week.
(13% owned)
- Zach Mettenberger still stands like a statue in the pocket, but we've seen him make some huge plays since taking over the starting job in Tennessee including the 80-yard touchdown bomb to Nate Washington last night against the Steelers. The Titans are certainly a rebuilding team but Mettenberger deserves a look with the right match-up and QBs playing the Eagles have had a good time of it in general.
(3% owned)
It's just not going to happen for ya: Robert Griffin III has all of the upside in the world and some great talents at multiple positions on his team, but it was long ago time to throw in the towel. Stop picking him up, people! Honestly, you'd probably be better off with Andy Dalton!
(62% owned)
RB
- C.J. Anderson is the man now in Denver.. mostly because he HAS to be! Clearly the feature back, the competition that he would have faced going forward includes such injured players as Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. Look for Anderson to settle in to his new role (at least for the next few weeks) and start to score some TDs as he gets more comfortable with his situation.
(66% owned)
-Tre Mason was slowly being eased into the lead role in St. Louis but had a difficult schedule to contend with. His production suffered because of the struggles that the Rams were having on offense and the opponents that were put in front of them. Playing the Chargers, Raiders and Redskins over the next few weeks should take a little of the pressure from Mason and I would consider him a startable RB2 candidate for the rest of the season.
(51% owned)
- Isaiah Crowell continues to do-si-do with Terrance West for the #1 RB job in Cleveland, but at least there is one less dance partner going forward after the Browns dropped the constantly under-performing Ben Tate today. I have a hard time recommending a situation where there is not a clear lead back, however I think we are likely to see Crowell field the majority of the carries. In a game against Atlanta, it would not be surprising to see both Crowell and West play a part once again, though.
(24% owned)
- Jonas Gray was explosive and violent last week, running like Beast Mode and racking up 199 yards on 38 touches for a staggering 4 TDs. Gray has now fully captured the Stevan Ridley role in the Patriots' offense, but with that comes a caveat: namely, the Belichick will play who the Belichik wants to play (and generally not who you are expecting). Those who want to chase numbers will likely see low usage of Gray this coming week just because, though surely he has not scored his last TD.
(23% owned)
It's finally time for this guy: Charles Sims may break out in a big way this week against the Bears. Looking like the lead back for the Bucs, Sims took the most snaps and had the most production against the Redskins in week 11. Sims looks healthy and is trending up over the other RB candidates, but there is always the chance that Doug Martin comes back this week and sucks up some of the available touches - turning this into a 3-headed monster of a situation that you'll want to stay away from. Still, I'm betting that Sims ends up being productive this week against Chicago.. predicting at least 60 all-purpose yards and 1 TD.
(30% owned)
WR
- Josh Gordon is included in this list because there are some leagues out there that still don't have him rostered. Say what you will about Gordon, but he's an absolute beast on the field and should put up WR1 numbers in every match-up.
(78% owned)
- Jordan Matthews had another great game last week, putting up 5 receptions for 107 and a TD. His chemistry with Sanchez has been beneficial for both players, and although Sanchez didn't have a great game (stats aside) last week, he should be able to perform much better at home against the Titans. It's a travesty that Matthews is still not owned in every league at this point.
(63% owned)
- Cecil Shorts is a name much-mentioned around drinkfive, but this year his performance has been hampered by the success of Allen Robinson and Robinson's chemistry with new QB Bortles. Now that Robinson is out for the rest of the season with a broken foot, however, Shorts is once again thrust into the 'garbage-time' spotlight and should put up solid numbers from here on out.
(45% owned)
- Doug Baldwin looked good last week against the Chiefs, but he's just not fast enough, big enough or strong enough to really break out with consistency. He'll continue to put up numbers like 4 or 5 receptions for 50 yards and a 20-25% chance of a TD. Pick him up if you're desperate for a low-end starter or bench depth in a PPR league.
(39% owned)
- Malcolm Floyd has been playing well this season, and his production looks to continue as Rivers and Co. get their heads out of their asses and back into the game. Mathews' return should bolster the offense and give the Chargers a believeable threat on the ground again which will keep Rivers upright and his receivers productive. Floyd is a better option in a standard league than Baldwin or Landry, but Matthews, Stills and Shorts are the superior plays here if they are available.. Consider Floyd the 'Andy Dalton' of WR free agents at this point in the season. You should not go with anyone ranked lower unless desparate.
(37% owned)
- Jarvis Landry is going to give similar production as Doug Baldwin, but is not owned in as many leagues. He also has a better track record of getting in for TDs this season, scoring 3 over the last 6 weeks. A high-floor, low-ceiling PPR league play, Landry will generally score you between 8 and 14 points per week. Would consider other options in standard leagues, as his production is too dependent on touchdowns.
(16% owned)
- Brandin Cooks has been sidelined for the rest of the season with an injury to his thumb, and meanwhile all-important fantasy games leading up to the playoffs are being played. What can Cooks owners (or those just trying to get a leg up) do to offset this inury? Pick up Kenny Stills, who has been averaging 4 receptions a game and has scored 2 TDs over the past 5 weeks. His production should only increase while Cooks is recovering.
(15% owned)
Don't pick him up, he's a BUST: Kenny Britt (16% owned) had a huge game last week but can't be trusted for these important games leading up to the playoffs.
TE
-Coby Fleener filled in for Dwayne Allen after he went down with an ankle injury in week 11 and ended up having an outstanding game, catching 7 passes for 144 yards. Fleener and Allen are both talented and share the load on a weekly basis so when either one goes down, the other should have a big boost in production. The Colts play the Jaguars in week 12 which is never bad news.
(43% owned)
- Jacob Tamme is worth a look this week since Julius Thomas went down with an ankle injury against the Rams in week 11. He has proven chemistry with Peyton Manning and should be targeted at least 3 or 4 times if he starts. With Sanders and Thomas both questionable for the week 12 match-up against the Dolphins, Tamme might even end up with a TD.
(2% owned)
DST
Bills(vs. NYJ), Colts(vs. JAX), Packers(@MIN), Bears(vs. TB)
Week 11, well we don’t really need to dwell on that too much!
Luckily last week was so topsy-turvy that it would’ve taken a DeLorean to get a high score. Some people in your league may have been able to call one of the upsets, some maybe two, but it is hard to imagine someone having too high of a score last week.
No point in spending too much time looking at the past – time to go back to the future!
WEEK 12 – HERE WE GO!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
15 – INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville – New England may have found some kinks in the Colts’ armor. Lucky for them they get a home game against the lowly Jaguars to work the kinks out.
14 – PHILADELPHIA over Tennessee – Philly made the mistake of heading into Lambeau to take on possibly the hottest team in the league right now. Hosting the Titans should help the Eagles get back on track.
13 – SAN DIEGO over St. Louis – After pulling off what some could call the upset of the year, the Rams head west to take on the Chargers. It may be close, like the Chargers vs Raiders last week, but the Rams don’t have it in them to pull off two big upsets in a row.
12 – BUFFALO over New York Jets – The Bills are offering $10/hour and game tickets to come out and help shovel out Ralph Wilson Stadium. Geno Smith might want to head to Buffalo early to get in on that, he may need to pad his nest egg.
11 – SAN FRANCISCO over Washington – Washington was kind enough to allow the Bucs back to the NFL and their prize is a cross-country trip for a game that they can’t win.
10 – DENVER over Miami – Peyton had an off day last week. Do you really think he will have two in a row?
9 – Green Bay over MINNESOTA – So Ben Tate goes from one crowded backfield to another. It’s a bit of an upgrade for the Vikes but not nearly enough to stop a team that is playing as well as the Pack are right now.
8 – CHICAGO over Tampa Bay – Lovie returns to Soldier Field and brings with him a gift win for the Bears. Mike Evans should be able to continue the tear that he has been on but the Tampa D won’t have enough to stop the Bears offense.
7 – NEW ENGLAND over Detroit – Tom Brady is playing like Tom Brady again. When that happens the Patriots are hard to top in Foxborough.
6 – Dallas over NEW YORK GIANTS – The Giants have had a chance to win a few more games, but Eli just keeps throwing it away … literally and figuratively!
5 – NEW ORLEANS over Baltimore – Quite honestly this game SHOULD be a lot higher, but the Saints have not given us any real reason to have real confidence in them this year.
4 – Arizona over SEATTLE – A huge battle for the NFC West in Seattle. The Cardinals are legit even with Drew Stanton at quarterback. The Seahawks have just too many questions this year.
3 – Cleveland over ATLANTA – With Ben Tate gone, the Browns will have a more focused running attack that should be able to run over the Falcons defense.
2 – Cincinnati over HOUSTON – A Bengals win will rest on the offense. AJ Green started the process of showing the league he is indeed back last week, but to solidify that fact my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that AJ Green will have a 200 yard receiving day.
1 – OAKLAND over Kansas City – This may be just a fan with a hunch (and does not deserve to be anywhere higher than the one point line) – but with the national lights on bright and the Black Hold going crazy, this may be the week the Raiders finally get a W.
Each week we discuss the best waiver moves to make on teams that need a leg up, positional depth or just to pick up that guy that fell through the cracks for no apparent reason. Heading into Week 13, this is the time to go for all upside plays and scratch anyone from your team that you haven't, or won't play on a weekly basis. Points, people! It's all that matters now. You don't need to carry handcuffs or roster 3 QBs in a one QB league. Listen up for some big tips on players that are not owned by the majority of teams out there (50% owned or less).
QB:
Alex Smith (vs. DEN, 36% owned)
Denver is currently giving up almsot 20 points per game to QBs in standard scoring leagues. Yes, this is mostly because they get up to a big lead against teams who are then forced to throw the ball - but regardless of the circumstance we're just interested in the points! Smith had some bad weeks against BUF and SEA but those are some of the best defenses against the pass. Last week vs. OAK Smith put up 234 yards and 2 TDs. In what could be a high-scoring game against the Broncos, Smith is a good QB2 and a possible spot start if your current guy has a bad match-up (here's looking at you, Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick) or is just bad in general (Michael Vick, RG3).
WR:
Malcolm Floyd (@BAL, 40% owned)
Floyd has caught at least 4 balls in the past 4 games and Rivers has been targeting him a lot in the passing game. Although he didn't capitalize on those targets last week, Floyd faces a Ravens' secondary this week that has had trouble with recent passing attacks (can you say Ben Roethlisberger?) so if Rivers can get in a good rhythm with his offensive line and receivers we may see on of Floyd's best games this season.
Jarvis Landry (@NYJ, 22% owned)
After talking about Landry for the past few weeks, he's still owned by less than 1/4 of Yahoo leagues. Sucking up receptions in the slot like usual, Landry garnered 7 receptions for 50 yards and 2 TDs against Denver. He, along with QB Tannehill, has been performing at a high level for ther past few weeks now and both look to continue this trend against a Jets' team that is playing for increasingly less each week.
RB:
Andre Williams (@JAX, 38% owned)
Rashad Jennings is back and taking most of the carries in the Giants' running game, but two important things have happened: first, the Giants have started to realize that Jennings is better (and healthier) when spaced out and avoiding too much short yardage work and second, the Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. That's probably the more important thing.. whereas earlier in the season the Giants were having trouble moving the football downfield and thus Williams did not get the opportunity to capitalize on the limited touches he received, the revitalized Giants' passing game should create more redzone touches here. Around 10 touches a game plus some goalline work is just fine for a flex play at RB.
LeGarrette Blount (@GB, 33% owned)
Less than a week removed from being fired by the Steelers, Blount was resigned by his former team (NE) and marched downfield for an impressive 78 yards on 12 touches, including 2 TDs. Yes, Jonas Gray was even more impressive the previous week but that is the mystery of the Belichick. In my humble opinion, Blount will remain the short yardage and goalline back for the Patriots - he had the same role last season and played well there. This is a dicey pick, but could pay off dividends throughout the playoffs.
TE:
Jordan Cameron (@BUF, 47% owned)
Cameron was outstanding last year but has only had 1 impressive game so far this season. He is an excellent candidate to break out in the next few weeks, though, since the Browns have been playing really well and he gets a lot of space given back to him on the field now that Josh Gordon is back out there. A tough matchup against BUF this week may not get him on any leaderboards, but the Colts and the Bengals (which he plays in weeks 14 and 15, respectively), are giving a lot of points to TEs. Don't sleep on Cameron - he'll be instrumental in someone's playoff run.
Kyle Rudolph (vs. CAR, 47% owned)
If Cameron is not available, Rudolph is an excellent choice. Injured for most of the year and on a team with a rookie QB, he is flying under the radar in some leagues after being eased back into an every-down role in MIN. Playing on almost every snap last week and grabbing 3 receptions for 50 yards on 5 targets, it looks like he's back on his feet for real. The 6'6" Rudolph is also arguably the best redzone target that the Vikings currently have rostered.
Defense / Special Teams:
MIA (@NYJ), DET (vs. CHI), IND (vs. WAS), BUF (vs. CLE), AZ (@ATL)