Welcome back to the Rookie Report. Another exciting week of NFL action is in the books, and it was comeback city. The Bills, Browns, Giants and Panthers all put up comeback victories and the Rams and Bucs nearly did the same. Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham Jr. were all big parts of their teams’ wins, and several other rookies made big contributions in week 5 as well. Will week 6 be more of the same?
Let’s talk about what to expect this weekend…
Rookies to Start:
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 6: @Oak.): Oliver exploded on to the scene last week with over 160 total yards and a TD against the number one run defense in the league. The Raiders are not close to number one. In fact, they allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Oliver is a top-15 RB play this week and a must-start.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 6: @Phi.): The Giants have been committed to the run game since they started turning their season around, and with Rashad Jennings likely out this week, Williams will assume the lead back role in a matchup against a less than daunting Eagles’ defense. The BC product should be a low level RB2 this week. I’d prefer Oliver to Williams this week, but both have solid upside.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Kelvin is going to be heavily involved as usual, and is pretty much a must-start every week because of his role in the offense. With that said, the Bengals’ defense is tough and should be eager to wash away the memory of last week’s game against New England. Kelvin is still a high ceiling option, but he’s got a lower floor this week than usual.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 6: @Ten.): The Titans aren’t as good a matchup as you’d think for Bortles, but it’s a better matchup than Pittsburgh, especially if the Jags’ run game is more effective this week. I see Bortles as a mid-range QB2 in 12 team leagues.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): The Bengals’ entire team should rebound this week, and they should lean even more heavily on the run game than usual this week with A.J. Green dealing with a toe injury. The Panthers allow the 6th most points to opposing RBs at just over 20 per game, so there’s a chance for both Gio and Hill to be good this week. Hill still likely needs a TD to provide good value, but he’s a pretty decent flex option this week.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): I’m getting the impression that Ken Whisenhunt must hate Bishop Sankey. After vowing to use Bishop more this week, he still finished with just 8 carries in a game the Titans led until the final minutes. With the miserable Jags up next, Sankey has a great shot to finally break out, or he could see less than 10 touches again. Play him at your own risk.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 6: @TB): Lorenzo has a plus matchup this week with Tampa, but the Ravens have been sticking to the committee approach, and Forsett remains the top option due to his prowess in the passing game. There is still a decent role for Taliaferro, and head coach John Harbaugh said this week he wants to give Taliaferro more carries, but until he takes more of a lead role he’s just a flex option.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): If Evans plays, the matchup isn’t as tough as you might think. The Ravens have allowed over 1,000 receiving yards to opposing WRs through 5 games. Vincent Jackson is limited in practice this week with an injury of his own. Evans is capable of 80+ yards if he suits up. Glennon has given this passing offense new life.
WRs Allen Robinson & Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee might both be out this week. Robinson remains a higher floor option than Hurns and is likely to haul in at least 5 catches, but Hurns has more upside. Both players have a shot at a decent week, and are WR3/flex options.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 6: @Phi.): The Eagles allow the most WR points in the league, and Beckham should play more snaps this week after his strong outing a week ago. Despite that, Rueben Randle is seeing 10 targets a game and Larry Donnell should be more involved this week after getting shut down against Atlanta. There’s still a ton of upside, but there’s certainly risk. I think he could steal some of Victor Cruz’s work if Cruz keeps dropping passes.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 6: @Min.): Megatron will either be limited again or out altogether this week, and the Lions will need Ebron to step up in passing game. He’s still a matchup nightmare, and the tight ends gave the Vikes fits last season. I think Ebron is a good bet for a TD and could be worth a streaming play.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): The Lions allow the fewest points to opposing QBs in the league. Teddy’s been good so far, but with Megatron, Joique and Reggie Bush all battling injuries, this likely won’t be a blowout and won’t have much garbage time passing for Minny. I expect a bump in the road this week for Teddy. He’s a really low end QB2 at best.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 6: vs. SD): Don’t even think about playing Carr. The Raiders’ offense has been a total dumpster fire so far, and with Tony Sparano now in charge they are likely to run the ball more often, further limiting Carr’s upside.
RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrence West, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. Pit.): With Ben Tate back from injury, West and Crowell are limited to change of pace work, and there isn’t enough to go around to make either of them a trustworthy flex play. I think Crowell is a guy to hold on to in case of another Tate injury, but for now you have to keep him benched.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): Arian Foster is back in business for now, putting up his best game of the season in week 5 against Dallas. Until he gets hurt again, Blue won’t see enough work to be a viable flex option.
RB Darrin Reaves, CAR (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Reaves seems like the best bet to play this week out of he, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but this matchup is imposing. I wouldn’t have faith in a big game out of Reaves. The Panthers just haven’t committed to the run so far.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): The Lions run D has been stout all year, allowing less than 3 yards a carry, and McKinnon is still playing second fiddle to Matt Asiata. He’s too much of a risk to trust this week.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 6: @StL.): Frank Gore’s resurgence over the past couple weeks is really hampering Hyde’s upside. His role should increase later in the season when the team tries to keep Gore fresh headed into the postseason. For now, his change of pace role makes him too much of a risk to trust. Believe it or not, the Rams are in the top 10 in the league at limiting opposing RB points.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. NE): Okay, benching Watkins after his 2nd best yardage game of the season probably sounds crazy. I don’t think it is. While it’s true that Orton at QB helps Sammy’s numbers, he draws Darrelle Revis this week, and the Pats defense allows the 3rd fewest WR points in the NFL. There’s very serious bust potential for Watkins this week.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. NYG): It might bite you in the ass to sit Matthews this week if he finds the end zone, but the Eagles continue to target Riley Cooper more than they should. Add in the solid defense the G-Men have been playing against the pass, and I just don’t want to rely on Matthews in anything but the deepest PPR leagues.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Was.): The Redskins’ defense isn’t particularly good, but since Palmer went down, Brown hasn’t been much of a factor. He shouldn’t be a consideration unless Palmer is back under center, and even then only as a roll of the dice flex option.
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): With Mike Evans possibly back this week, ASJ loses a lot of the appeal he had last week. He only caught one pass for 11 yards last week. The Ravens allow less than 5 points a game to tight ends. I doubt ASJ gets to 5 this week.
Rookies on Bye: WR Brandin Cooks, NO
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Jake Locker’s injury situation bears watching this week. There has been talk in the media this week that the Titans may turn to Mettenberger soon, and it could even be this week if Locker isn’t able to play. Mett led the NFL in passing yards in the preseason, and would face a soft Jaguars’ defense in his first start. He’d be at least a low end QB2 if he gets the nod.
RB Storm Johnson, JAX (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Johnson was impressive in his first NFL action, rattling off a Jags’ season best 20-yard run against Pittsburgh. Head coach Gus Bradley said this week that the running back position will be an open competition going forward, and they’d ideally like a 2-man rotation. Bradley openly praised Johnson this week, and he could have first crack at being part of the backfield tandem. He’s a roll of the dice flex play in deeper leagues that could pay off big this week. He should be comfortable playing with his college QB Blake Bortles.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 6: @NYJ): Thompson shouldn’t be anywhere near your lineup this week against the Jets’ stout run D, but with Montee Ball out for multiple weeks the backfield workload bears watching. CJ Anderson was inactive last week and Ronnie Hillman is still just a change of pace guy. Anderson is expected to get the bulk of the carries, but keep an eye on the situation.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 6: @Mia.): I have a gut feeling that this is the week Davante finds the end zone. He’s playing a ton of snaps as the WR3 in Green Bay, and it’s only a matter of time before he finds a big game. I like his chances this week with Brent Grimes covering either Jordy or Randall Cobb.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): The Jets are desperately in need of playmakers right now, and Amaro has the talent to be just that. It’s only a matter of time before they fully unleash him. The Jets should be playing from behind all day this week, so they should be throwing a bunch. I like Amaro in 2-TE leagues.
That’s it for this week. Hopefully you find something useful in there for your fantasy teams and are able to pick up a W in week 6. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Each week in the NFL brings new surprises and disappointments to our fantasy teams. Staying ahead of this stuff is one way to forge and maintain a quality team and get them to the all-important playoffs! Here are some important blurbs along with their associated analyses that may clue you in on some important information before your opponents!
Joe Flacco secured a spot in the record books when he passed for 5 touchdowns faster than any other QB in NFL history. He may have thrown some more later in the game if it hadn't devolved to a blowout against the Bucs, finishing with a score of 48-17. Including this week's stats (21 for 29, 306 yards, 5 passing TD's), Flacco is now the #8 fantasy QB overall in standard scoring leagues. Looking ahead to his Week 7 match-up with the Atlanta Falcons, Flacco provides a tantalizing value for a QB that is still only owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues. The Falcons have consistently had one of the worst passing defenses in the league so far this season, allowing an average of 278 yards per game so far. Interestingly enough, they've only allowed 6 TD's through the air this year though.. I believe this can be explained by the 12 TD's that they have given up on the ground - seems it's no problem for teams to pass the football down to the redzone against the Falcons, and then most of them tend to run it in. So, will Flacco finish the year as a top 10 QB? With Torrey Smith's breakout game last week will the Smith & Smith combo stay productive on a weekly basis? Is Flacco a good play in Week 7 against the Falcons, or will most of the TD's stay on the ground?
Andre Holmes had a standout performance against the San Diego Chargers (who had previously had one of the league's best passing defenses and been one of the more consistent fantasy defenses) with 4 receptions for 121 yards and 2 TD's. With that game, he leads the Raiders with 20 targets over the last two games. New interim head coach Tony Sparano seems to have put a spark into the Raiders' offense and Derek Carr has been playing fairly well by limiting turnovers (though he could have a better completion percentage - last week he was only 18-of-34). The other relevant receiver from the Raiders is James Jones, who caught 5-of-7 targets for 56 yards and 1 TD in Week 6. He has quietly put up consistently good numbers all year, cementing him as the #24 WR overall in standard scoring leagues while only being owned in 38% of Yahoo leagues. The only receiver who has performed better overall while being owned by less teams is Malcolm Floyd at #20 overall and owned by only 24% of teams. Pretty impressive performances by each of them so far this season and they don't look to slow down anytime soon. Both are solid grabs on the waiver wire this week before people realize what's going on!
Knowshon Moreno just went on the IR, after apparently tearing his ACL during the game against the Packers in Week 6. We knew that he was a dicey start, but didn't catch anything about this while watching the game until it popped up on Twitter. Ouch, Knowshon.. Well, moving on - right? With Moreno out for the year (and maybe moving on to a new uniform next season), Lamar Miller will keep his spot as the Dolphin's lead back. He's been no slouch in that role, either, grading out as the #14 RB overall in standard scoring leagues with 400+ all-purpose yards and 4 TD's so far. Owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues, you probably can't scoop him up of the wire at this point but he should be an every-week RB2 start now - especially going up against the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. Both teams are giving up over 100 yards rushing per game.
Injuries are one of the biggest pitfalls to your fantasy football team. Unpredictable and quick to rear it's ugly head, the injury bug is most prevalent during this middle stretch of the season when everyone is tired and physically drained. If you stay on top of the injuries, though, you can make good decisions with fill-ins and replacements. Take a look at our Week 12 Waiver Wire Picks for more helpful advice.
Quarterback Injuries
Joe Flacco (QB, BAL) – Flacco is officially out for the season with a torn ACL and MCL. In what can only be described as a disaster of a season so far in 2015, the Ravens are losing weapons by the second. Matt Schaub will start immediately but is without fantasy value, and the Ravens picked up Jimmy Clausen – ex Chicago backup who was just waived – to hold the clipboard on the sideline.
Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF) – Anyone who watched Monday Night Football (NE vs. BUF) could see that Taylor was obviously in pain at least during the last quarter of the game. Continually clutching at his shoulder/collarbone area after passing the football is never a good sign. Coach Rex Ryan said that he would be ok, but it’s something to keep an eye on if your intention is to start Taylor against the Chiefs.
Running Back Injuries
Justin Forsett (RB, BAL) – Forsett was not on track to match his impressive 2014 performance this year, but he was obviously the lead back on the Ravens. After breaking both bones in his forearm against the Rams in week 11, it looks like rookie Buck Allen will be filling in as the uncontested starter for now. He had 22 carries for 67 yards and caught 5 passes for 48. The Ravens did just recently acquire Terrance West, but it’s not likely that he gets meaningful playing time at this point.
Marshawn Lynch (RB, SEA) – Lynch has been battling injury all year, and it looks like that injury may end up being diagnosed as a sports hernia.. which will either continue to cause Lynch pain and missed games, or require possible [regular] season-ending surgery. In either case, Thomas Rawls is the man in Seattle until Lynch suits up again and that may not be for quite a while.
Charcandrick West (RB, KC) – Obviously Kansas City has a pretty killer offensive line and whoever their ‘RB of choice’ is will have some nice production. West was showcasing a lot of talent since he was called upon to fill in for Jamaal Charles at the position, but is having an issue with his hamstring. However long West is sidelined, Spencer Ware should be able to provide a big portion of that production. West may go ahead and play this week, though, which would make Ware’s week 11 performance nothing more than a blip on the fantasy radar.
Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI) – A concussion leading up to this short week for the Eagles will likely keep Mathews sidelined.
Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL) – Another concussion knocked Freeman out of the game, but it looks like he is on track to play.
Wide Receiver Injuries
Michael Floyd (WR, ARI) – Floyd put up some big numbers in his last two games, but has been nursing a hamstring injury recently and it doesn’t look like he’ll be hurried back. If that’s the case, we could see rookie J.J. Nelson who put up 142 yards and 1 TD on 4 receptions this past week continue to be a go-to target in the offense.
Danny Amendola (WR, NE) – Amendola went down on Monday night with a non-contact injury (the kind that doesn’t look bad but can turn out to be way more serious than initially thought). Thankfully it looks like the extent of the injury is just a sprain but we won’t know any more about his availability going forward until injury reports come out on Wednesday.
Aaron Dobson (WR, NE) – On a tough day for the Patriots, more wide receivers went down including Dobson. Looks like this injury is fairly serious, and so we may see more of Chris Harper and Scott Chandler. At this moment, the only healthy and experienced receivers that the Patriots have are Brandon LaFell and Rob Gronkowski.
Tight End Injuries
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI) – A concussion will probably keep Ertz from playing this Thursday, allowing Brent Celek to step into his role as a primary pass-catcher. Celek is no Greg Olsen, but he has brought down 11 receptions for over 200 yards in the past two weeks and a questionable passing offense will likely continue to look to Celek to produce.
Jordan Reed (TE, WAS) – MCL sprains can sideline players for weeks, but it looks like this injury may heal rather quickly and the team doctors and management are currently expecting Reed to play this weekend.
To sum up this week, well, it’s home sweet home.
Even though we saw a bit of a kink in what many consider to be the best home stadium in the league when the Cowboys won in Seattle (called the Cowboys to win the East…just saying) I still feel that a home game means the most in the NFL than any other league.
It should show this week. I can see 80% of home teams winning this week, and two of the three potential road wins really are toss ups.
But THAT’S why they play the games!
WEEK 7 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
15 – NEW ENGLAND over New York Jets – New England playing the Jets on a Thursday night…I know I’m not the only one that immediately thinks of the infamous “Butt Fumble.” This game won’t be as embarrassing, but it won’t be too far off.
14 – DALLAS over New York Giants – How ‘bout them Cowboys? If ever there is a way to show that you are a legitimate contender, it’s going to Seattle and coming back with a win. After another big offensive loss last week with the Victor Cruz injury, the Giants just can’t keep up with this rejuvenated Dallas team.
13 – GREEN BAY over Carolina – The way to score on the Packers is to run the ball. This could mean another big game for Cam Newton but he won’t be able to keep up with the Packers offense.
12 – DENVER over San Francisco – The 9ers looked good in the national spotlight last week. But that was in St. Louis – this is in Denver…BIG difference. Peyton Manning will be looking to break the NFL’s record for most TD passes so the Broncos’ offense will be firing on all cylinders.
11 – Seattle over ST. LOUIS – Some doubts on the Seahawks’ dominance have come up this week after a home loss. Pretty easy to see that they will use this as motivation and the Rams just don’t have enough to stop Seattle.
10 – BUFFALO over Minnesota – Other than one good game against the Falcons, the Vikings haven’t really given us a reason to be too confident in them. This is more of a lack of confidence in Minnesota than strong confidence in the Bills.
9 – WASHINGTON over Tennessee – Reports are starting to come out that RGIII could be ready to go in a few weeks. This means that time is running out on Kirk Cousins to show his stuff. Lucky for him he just has the Titans defense to worry about this week.
8 – SAN DIEGO over Kansas City – San Diego has sat comfortably in the top 5 of most power rankings for the last few weeks now. After a near loss to the lowly Raiders, look for the Chargers to step their game up against another divisional opponent.
7 – CHICAGO over Miami – It’s hard to call a team a contender when they haven’t won a game at home yet. Surprisingly, Soldier Field has not been too friendly to the Bears this season. Chicago needs to get that monkey off their back and should be able to against the Dolphins.
6 – DETROIT over New Orleans – Both teams come in hurting at the receiver position. The Lions, though, seem to have a defense that can contain the remaining Saints. Matthew Stafford’s inconsistency is the only reason that the Lions aren’t higher on the list.
5 – INDIANAPOLIS over Cincinnati – This could very well be an AFC title game preview. Expect a high scoring affair in this one. With the Bengals missing a key part of their offense in AJ Green, the Colts should be able come out on top in this shootout.
4 – Houston over PITTSBURGH – Houston made a valiant comeback after digging such a deep hole last week against the Colts. They have been in every game so far this year and I just don’t think the Steelers have what it takes to keep a team like the Texans down.
3 – BALTIMORE over Atlanta – Two teams that have been really hard to figure out this season. The Ravens, though, should be able to ride the momentum of a huge offensive outbreak last week to keep the Falcons struggling.
2 – Cleveland over JACKSONVILLE – Don’t look now, but the Browns might just make a playoff push. With a favorable schedule the next few weeks, they could very well be a 6-2 team! I’m still a little hesitant to put a lot of confidence on them on the road though – even if it is in Jacksonville.
1 – OAKLAND over Arizona – Oakland looked much better than they had all year in the first game of the Tony Sparano regime. So much so that this week’s BOLD PREDICTION will be that the Raiders will win their first game of the season this week.