Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was a quiet one for several of the top rookies (byes were a factor in that), but there were some new rookie faces making waves this past weekend. Teddy Bridgewater, Bishop Sankey, Andre Williams, Mike Evans and Eric Ebron each made their first dalliance into an NFL end zone. Jerick McKinnon also burst onto the scene with over 150 yards. These are just the first of many standout performances to come from most of these guys. Let’s take a look at which rookies might standout in week 5…
Rookies to Start:
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Sankey continued to perform with garbage time snaps last week, and coach Whisenhunt said this week he’ll see more carries, and he’ll see them earlier in the game. The Browns allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Sankey should be a decent RB2 this week. Double-digit points are likely.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): The Panthers’ pass attack runs through Kelvin. The Bears allow over 24 points per game to opposing WRs, and I’d think Kelvin is a good bet for half that number. The only other relevant Panther WR is Cotchery. Feel safe firing up Benjamin as a WR2/3.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 5: vs. TB): Cooks is always going to be a better PPR play than standard league, but even in a down game last week he pulled in 5 receptions and was on the field for 82% of the Saints’ snaps. He’s crushing Marques Colston in targets, and the Bucs allow the most fantasy points to opposing WRs at 30.8. Cooks should be a solid WR3 even in standard leagues this week, and potential WR2 in PPR.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): The potential is there for a really nice game out of Bortles. Pittsburgh has had an explosive offense so far, and a leaky defense. They’ve allowed a 7:1 TD-INT ratio so far and just got done letting Mike Glennon have a strong game against them in his first start of the year. Bortles should continue to get better each week as he gains more experience. I’d view Bortles as a mid-to-high QB2 this week. I’d trust him more than Tom Brady vs. Cincy.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 5: @NE): Hill is always a threat to score a TD, but the matchup this week may favor his teammate Gio Bernard. New England has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing RBs, but they’ve allowed them just 2 rushing TDs as opposed to 4 receiving scores. Gio is a bigger part of the passing game than Hill. I’d still expect 8-10 carries for Hill, more if the Pats play like they did last Monday, but Hill is a hope-for-a-TD flex play this week.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 5: @Ten.): With Ben Tate coming back from injury, it makes Crowell a dicey flex option. The Titans do allow 20 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, but it’ll likely take a TD for Crowell to be productive. I like his chances of getting that TD, though.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Zo-Bot found the end zone again in week 4, but he lost out on starter’s carries to Justin Forsett. Forsett is undersized and just a change-of-pace back, but until we start to see Taliaferro doing work early and often, it’ll be hard to trust him. The Colts give up a good amount of running back points (19.3/game), but a lot of it has been in the passing game. View Taliaferro as a low floor flex option.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 5: @GB): With Teddy likely to sit tonight, the Vikings will have to rely heavily on the ground game. That’s good news for McKinnon, but it’s better news for Matt Asiata. Asiata is still running as the lead back, and Green Bay will likely play from ahead. Asiata is the better back in the passing game despite his obviously inferior talent. McKinnon will see some work, and he could be a fun roll of the dice since the Packers do allow the 4th most RB fantasy points. He’s a high-risk, high-reward flex option.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. @Det.): Watkins definitely has the role to be a star, and Kyle Orton taking over at QB should actually help Watkins. He’s been the focal point of the offense and Orton is a more accurate passer than Manuel. With that said, the Lions’ defense has been fantastic. I’d expect 4-5 catches and 50-60 yards from Watkins, with the possibility for a little more.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): The Steelers defense allows plenty of points to opposing WRs, and Robinson has the most talent amongst the Jacksonville WRs. His production has been a little inconsistent like most rookie WRs, but he’s a promising WR3 option this week. I’d look for 60+ yards.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Hurns’s outlook is a little less promising than Robinson’s. He’s reliant on the deep ball, and he might not get one in this game. His upside is greater than Robinson’s, but so is his risk. He’s just as likely (maybe more) to put up 2 or fewer points as he is to hit double-digits.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Adams seems to have moved ahead of Jarrett Boykin, but he’s yet to produce. He did have a long TD called back on a penalty against Chicago, and the Packers play more 3-WR sets than any team in the league. His breakout game is coming eventually. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 5: @GB): This one isn’t rocket science. Teddy’s unlikely to play this week, so he shouldn’t be in your lineup. Even if he plays, he’s a low-end QB2 at best. The Packers are just 13.3 points per game to opposing QBs, and that has come against Russell Wilson, Matt Stafford, Jay Cutler and Geno Smith. Take out Geno and that’s quite a gauntlet.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 5: @Ten.): Tate should be back, and it appears he’s been passed on the depth chart by Crowell. Despite the good matchup, West won’t see enough work to be a productive option this week.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 5: @Dal.): Foster should be a little healthier this week after limited touches a week ago, and the Cowboys’ defense has been much better than advertised. Blue will see limited touches, and I just don’t see enough upside for Blue to be a strong play. His only TD this season came on a blocked punt.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): Despite Donald Brown’s struggles, Oliver isn’t a good bet to do damage this week. The Jets allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league by a significant margin. It looks like Donald Brown will still start this week, and there won’t be enough stats for even one productive RB in this matchup.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 5: vs. KC): Hyde has yet to put up a reasonable yardage day, so he needs a TD to be productive. The Chiefs’ defense has been stout, allowing just 12.3 points per game to opposing RBs. I don’t expect a strong showing from Hyde this week. With just 2 byes this week, there are plenty of higher upside options you can play instead.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 5: @NO): Just making sure you’re aware that Evans is out for the next few weeks. Make other plans.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Lee has already struggled to get involved in the Jags’ offense since week 1. Ace Sanders returns from suspension this week and could steal some slot looks from Lee, who already has a minor role in the offense. There just isn’t enough upside to even consider Lee.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. StL.): I don’t love Matthews this week. The Rams have been getting gashed in the run game, and as a result, teams don’t have to throw. They’ve allowed under 190 yards per game through the air. Matthews has to compete with Maclin, Riley Cooper, Zach Ertz, Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy for targets. There just isn’t enough to go around this week to rely on Matthews.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 5: @SD): Jace’s time is coming, but it’s not quite here yet. His role is rapidly expanding, but the Chargers are allowing just 6 points per game to opposing TEs. I don’t see Amaro eclipsing that number. He’s safe to expect a few catches for about 30 yards from, but anything more would be a bonus.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Fauria is still out, which keeps Ebron on the radar, but with Calvin back closer to full strength, his targets should drop this week. The Bills have been decent against tight ends, and Ebron will just be too touchdown dependent for my taste this week.
Rookies on Byes this week: QB Derek Carr, OAK, RB Damien Williams, MIA, WR Jarvis Landry, MIA
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. vs. Atl.): Williams tallied over 60 yards and a score in garbage time in last Thursday’s win over the Redskins, and Atlanta allows the most RB points in the league. Their run defense is putrid. If the Falcons keep this game close, it’ll be more Jennings than Williams, but I love the upside Williams has this week. Atlanta couldn’t even contain Matt Asiata last week.
RB Darrin Reaves, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): With injuries to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Panthers’ coach Ron Rivera announced this week that Darrin Reaves is the starting RB right now. The Panthers haven’t consistently committed to the run game this year, and they’ve been predictable when they do with Cam staying in the pocket, but the Bears’ run defense isn’t very good. Reaves is an ok flex option in 12-team leagues.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): It’s hard to suggest playing Beckham in his debut game, but you should certainly keep an eye on his usage. He has incredible athleticism, and could find a big role in this offense as a dynamic playmaker. Make sure to pay attention.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 5: @Den.): Brown is still unlikely to be starting in many fantasy leagues, but he should be a sneaky flex/WR3 yet again this week. The Broncos allow the 2nd most passing yards in the league and the Cardinals have made Brown a part of the gameplan. When asked after the week 3 win over San Francisco if he was included in the gameplan because they didn’t know who he was, he responded “No one knows me.” I love that response, and I like Brown’s chances at a TD this week.
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 5: @NO): This isn’t a great matchup, with New Orleans allowing less than 5 points per game to opposing TEs, but with Mike Evans out, ASJ should have a much more prominent role in the passing game. He has already passed Brandon Myers on the depth chart and played on every offensive snap last week. Glennon helped Tim Wright to some big games last year, and he could do the same this week. ASJ could be a sneaky good option this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you to fantasy victory. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
With so many options to choose from, sometimes fielding a fantasy lineup can be quite the headache. Obvious are the starts akin to Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Matthew Stafford, Jamaal Charles and the game's other bigger names. However, it’s the tougher choices – namely the less obvious starts – that will end up winning your league.
Here are a few names you might want to consider:
Ben Roethlisberger QB Pittsburgh – Big Ben and Antonio Brown have been hooking up like nobody’s business in the first few games of the 2014 season. That should continue in Week 5. This should be another big week for the Pittsburgh tandem as they hit the road to take on Jacksonville – a team that sits on the bottom against the pass. Rookie wide receiver Markus Wheaton has also begun to make his presence known giving Roethlisberger yet another speedy target. Roethlisberger is off to one of the best starts in his career already having 6 touchdown passes and nearly 1,100 passing yards in just four games. Ride with Ben as your QB1 this week and don’t look back.
Justin Forsett RB Baltimore – This week’s matchup at Indianapolis could be a decent one for Forsett. Although Bernard Pierce could be in the picture, Forsett has been the most productive and versatile runningback in Baltimore’s backfield. Last week Forsett averaged over 4.5 yards gaining 66 yards on 14 carries and also scored a touchdown against Carolina and is averaging just under 5 yards per carry in four games so far this year. Coach Harbaugh cannot ignore Forsett’s early season success and should move forward with him as his featured back whether Pierce plays or not. Forsett should get some scoring chances making him a good gamble as a RB2 this week.
Bishop Sankey RB Tennessee – Bishop Sankey is emerging as the clear cut featured runningback as most predicted he would after the first few games. Coach Ken Whisenhunt thought Sankey’s footwork wasn’t quite there a couple weeks ago but much changed a week later and the rookie back is now slated for more carries – and against a bad Cleveland run defense. Riding high after his first career touchdown last week against Indianapolis, Sankey will certainly have his sights on the endzone at home against Cleveland this week. Sankey should be looked at as a solid RB2 for Week 5.
Michael Floyd WR Arizona – It looks like Drew Stanton could be Arizona’s quarterback for the foreseeable future and though that will undoubtedly be a hit to Floyd’s overall value, he should still be a decent contributor when he takes to the road in a matchup against the high-flying Broncos. Stanton might not have Palmer’s accuracy but he does target Floyd enough to make things happen. In Week 3 Floyd got 9 targets and went off for 114 yards against a tough San Francisco defense. Stanton’s security blanket should be a good bet to top the 100-yard mark again this week and is a good bet to nab his first touchdown of the year. Maybe Palmer’s absence will pay off as Stanton probably won’t spread the ball around as much. Start Floyd with confidence as a WR2.
Roddy White WR Atlanta – White was targeted a whopping 14 times last week against Minnesota but only managed four catches. Still, it was good enough for 73 receiving yards and a touchdown grab. Though the catches don’t indicate it, the targets certainly show Matt Ryan has a renewed faith in his former number one receiver. I fully expect a shootout this week when Atlanta goes to New York to take on the Giants and White should find himself right in the middle of the action. Julio Jones has a funky ankle, which if still affected by game time could make White an even more enticing start. White enters Week 5 as a high end WR2 or low end WR1 – however you want to look at it.
Garrett Graham TE Houston – Garrett Graham was supposed to move into a bigger role with the departure of fellow tightend Owen Daniels. But a back issue has kept him out of the season opener and he hasn’t exactly taken off since his return. Still, Graham has all kinds of potential to shine in Week 5’s matchup against Dallas, a team that has given up the most points to tightends this season. Starting Graham is a stretch in leagues that start one tightend, but not the worst play in the world. In leagues that start two tightends Graham is definitely worth a shot as he should get a handful of catches, decent yards and is always an endzone threat.
I think we have reached a point in the season where we can start looking back.
Five weeks are now in the books. If there’s anything that we have learned from this season, its that we should just expect anything. We’ve seen dynasties seemingly fall, bottom-dwellers doing what they can to make an impact, coaches losing jobs and others seemingly on their way out.
With all the confusion, I feel that we have done well to keep us towards the top of the ranks this year. We have managed to score nearly 70% of the possible points so far which should be good for a top 5 ranking in most confidence pools – especially if you can throw away your worst score.
But enough of looking at the past, here’s to the future!
WEEK 6! HERE WE GO!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
15 – Denver over NEW YORK JETS – I’m with you, a road team on the top line doesn’t normally make sense. But with a week of what looks like great matchups, and the fact that it’s the Broncos playing the Jets, you should feel comfortable with it in this one instance.
14 – ARIZONA over Washington – The Redskins just look like a team trying to find themselves right now. A game in Glendale with the Cardinals defense is not the best place to be looking.
13 – SEATTLE over Dallas – I’d like to thank the Cowboys for making me look not as dumb for picking them to win the East this year. That still doesn’t mean they have a chance playing IN Seattle though.
12 – San Diego over OAKLAND – It’s odd to have a road team on the top line, but honestly you could make a case for having a road team on the top TWO lines this week. The only reason I have the Chargers down a few spots is that you never know how a team will react to a mid-season coaching change.
11 – TENNESSEE over Jacksonville – The Titans have something to prove after giving up the biggest road team comeback in history last week … to the BROWNS nonetheless! This week they get the Jags, so they won’t really be able to prove anything with a win, but at least they can start to get the Brown taste out of their mouth. (It’s EXACTLY what it sounds like!)
10 – CINCINNATI over Carolina – Carolina won a big game last week, but that was really more of the Bears giving it away than the Panthers taking it. Cincinnati is not the place you want to be with as many offensive questions that the Panthers have.
9 – PHILADELPHIA over New York Giants – Don’t look now, but in terms of fantasy points, the Eagles have the number one defense. This makes me think that Eli may be taking a step back after a few straight wins for the G-Men.
8 – ATLANTA over Chicago – If the game only had one half, then the Bears would be dominant this year. The second half hasn’t been too kind to Chicago the last few weeks which is where you need momentum the most. The Falcons should be able to play off of the Georgia Dome atmosphere to get the win. Some may not call this that bold of a prediction, but my BOLD PREDICTION is that Devin Hester WILL return a kick against his former team.
7 – MINNESOTA over Detroit – I think the Vikings are a much different team both at home and with Teddy Bridgewater under center. With Calvin Johnson expected to be on the shelf, the Lions might not be able to keep up.
6 – Green Bay over MIAMI – It’s a scary thought to think the Packers defense is starting to come around. If they are, couple with the resurgence of the offense, Miami just doesn’t have what it takes to keep up.
5 – HOUSTON over Indianapolis – Could it be? Will we actually have an entertaining Thursday Night game? It should happen this week. This home and home series will be won by the home teams.
4 – San Francisco over ST LOUIS – Austin Davis gets his time to shine on Monday Night this week. While I think he may be someone to keep an eye on, he just won’t be enough against San Francisco.
3 – BUFFALO over New England – This could very well be the start of the passing of the torch. The Bills have a lot of young talent where the Pats are, well, old. Kyle Orton seems to be the veteran glue that is keeping this Bills squad together.
2 – CLEVELAND over Pittsburgh – Are the Browns for real? They have been in every game this year and just pulled off the biggest comeback by a road team in league history. A win against the Steelers would go a long way to solidify their presence – but it will be tough.
1 – Baltimore over TAMPA BAY – The Ravens have the offense to win this game. But with the way that the Bucs have been playing as of late, this game really is a toss-up.
With so many options to choose from, sometimes fielding a fantasy lineup can be quite the headache. Obvious are the starts akin to Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Matthew Stafford and the games other bigger names. However, it’s the tough choices – namely the less obvious starts – that will end up winning your league.
Here are a few names you might want to consider:
Ryan Tannehill QB Miami –Tannehill was on the hot seat as recently as a couple weeks ago but then cemented his spot, at least for now, with a strong performance against Oakland when the two teams hooked up in London. Throwing for 278 yards with two touchdowns in the contest, Moore may have gotten his self-confidence back but also comes into this Week 6 matchup well rested after a much needed bye. Tannehill will be at home against Green Bay, and though the Pack has not been too bad against the pass, Miami will most likely be forced to pass as they will probably find themselves trying to play keep up. Confidence, rest and a game that most likely will call for much passing all adds up to Tannehill being on your QB2 radar this week.
Shane Vereen RB New England – Shane Vereen has been getting increased carries over the past three games and there is no reason to think the trend won’t continue this week when New England goes to Buffalo. He’s always been a pass catching machine and though not as much as expected so far this year, he does have two games with five grabs. The Bills haven’t allowed more than 86 rushing yards to a team so far this season so don’t expect a huge ground game from Vereen. He should still top 60 rushing yards but his big damage could come in New England’s short passing attack. Vereen is a solid RB2 this week.
Emmanuel Sanders WR Denver –The Jets are ranked 25th against opposing wide receivers - like that even matters with Peyton Manning coming to town. Sanders has 18 catches on 24 targets in his last two games for a whopping 250 receiving yards. 149 of those yards were on the road against a very tough Seattle defense, making Sanders a receiver you’ll want to ride until he cools down – if he ever does. Sanders is a must start in all leagues and will be a WR1 so long as he has Manning throwing him the ball like he has been so far this season.
Brian Quick WR St. Louis – A star in the making, Quick is starting to make some noise in the NFL snagging three touchdowns in his last two games. This week St. Louis gets San Francisco at home and the 49ers defense has not been very scary since losing some key elements in the offseason and suffering a handful of big injuries.There’s always the Austin Davis factor to consider but it seems the two have been on the same page as of late. Quick makes a decent bye week replacement or serviceable WR3 with potential to do more.
Eric Ebron TE Detroit – Many drafted Ebron as a sleeper with high hopes of sneaky value from the tight end position. However, Ebron has not lived up to expectations as of yet. This week Detroit goes up against Minnesota who is currently ranked against opposing tightends. Detroit wants to see Ebron more involved in the offense and this could be the week in a heated division rivalry game. There are plenty of tight ends who I would rather start in a single tight end league, but that doesn’t mean Ebron won’t put up nice numbers. In leagues that start two tight ends, Ebron should be a decent TE2.