Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Betting on sports can be a fun way to make watching sporting events even more exciting than they already are! When done correctly, it can also be a way to generate some extra pocket change. Occasionally I will place wagers on other sports, but my bread and butter has always been on the NFL. There are a couple of things I like to keep in mind when I'm wagering. First and most important is to stay within your means, it's no fun when you are gambling with money you need. Next don't chase a loss: if you make a losing wager it is tempting to just bet on the next game and catch up. Whenever this comes up for me it usually leads to making a bad play on a game I don't feel strongly about. And the last thing I like to do is try to avoid making parlay bets. Parlays are tempting because you can win a lot by wagering a little and there is a reason for that! In the coming weeks I will use this forum to share some plays I am making and offer some insight on the picks I make.

First, here is a little recap on plays I've made so far this season. I have made 4 total wagers so far and have hit on 3 out of the 4. The first play I made was on the Chargers +1 at Buffalo in week 3. The public's opinion on the Bills was inflated after their victories over the Bears and Dolphins so I jumped on San Diego. Generally speaking whenever a home team is favored by less than 3 points it means they really aren't favored. Next I won betting on the Lions -1 against the Jets. That one was pretty simple for me, the Jets can not score enough to beat the Lions. Then I made an error: I tried to run up my roll too quickly and decided to bet the Saints -3 in Dallas on Sunday Night Football (as it was the only game left to bet on the day). Generally I will try to avoid betting on a road team in a prime time game when there isn't a wide disparity in talent. Finally most recently I won on the Packers -10 Thursday night over the Vikings. That line opened at Packers -9, and when Christian Ponder was announced as the Vikings starter I knew I would have to bet the Packers at home and was willing to take on the extra point.

This week there are three games on my radar for placing a wager. I like the Bears to bounce back getting 3 points vs. the Panthers. I think they will win outright with the Panthers down to their 3rd running back. Matt Forte should be able to have a good day against the Panthers who haven't stopped the run yet this season. Next I've been told by a trustworthy source that the Eagles have an 82% chance to cover 6 points against the Rams at home. Currently the line is set at -7 so if I place a wager on this game I probably will buy one point. Lastly I think the Patriots getting 2 points at home on Monday night will be a good bet. The Bengals are good this year, but you can never count out the Pats. I think they will have a strong performance in prime time and silence some doubters.

Week six in the NFL is full with a tough docket of games.  Expect to see low scores in confidence pools and teams struggling to find production with big name players on the injury report.  When looking over the betting lines there is not much that I like this week, so I will be sitting this week out.  If I were to pick some games to wager on this weekend though, I think the following offer the most promise.  

Denver's high powered offense is going up against a weak Jets' secondary favored by 10 points.  Since the Jets can't put up a lot of points this number is probably realistic, however I don't like such a high number for a road team with their starting running back out.

The New England Patriots are -3 at Buffalo against the Bills.  After looking impressive last week against the Bengals, logic would say they should have an easy time with Kyle Orton and the Bills.  If the Bills get the running game going though, they might be able to keep this one a little too close for comfort.  I feel a little bit better about betting the over in this game at 45 points.  New England put up 43 on a tough Bengals defense last week and might have finally put some things together on offense.

The Ravens and Packers are both favored by 3.5 on the road.  The Packers seam to be gaining momentum, so i would feel ok about taking them against the Dolphins.  The Ravens however are facing a Tampa Bay Bucs team that is playing hard for coach Lovie Smith.  Lovie coached teams always seem to play tight games and spoil bettor's weekends.

The Game I like the most this week would be for the Pittsburgh Steelers to bounce back on the road against the Cleveland Browns.  The Steelers are 1 point dogs and I like them to outright win.  A home team should automatically get 3 points if they are indeed the favorite.  So the Browns only getting one point is a sign that I want to jump on the Steelers.  

Good luck this week betters! I will be sitting on my money this week but maybe I will regret it.

Welcome gamblers to another section geared towards winning the big $$$ on Fanduel.  Taking a different approach this week by going with two high priced running backs vs. looking for the bargain backs with high volume potential.  This may hurt my wide receiver selections, but I couldn't pass up on the running back matchups.  Good luck to you all!

QB – Drew Brees, NO ($9,400): Brees should be up for a huge performance at home this week going up against a Carolina defense that averages 2 touchdowns allowed through the air per game.  Expect Brees to top that average in what looks to be a high scoring affair. 

RB – Arian Foster, HOU ($8,700): Foster is healthy coming into this dream matchup so I can't pass up on this one.  Jacksonville gives up 129.4 rushing yards per game and at least 1 touchdown per game.  Foster should hit those numbers on the ground and add to them since he is involved in the passing game as well.

RB – Eddie Lacy, GB ($8,500): Taking another high ticket RB this week since Lacy has a great matchup against a Falcons defense giving up 118.3 yards per game on the ground.  As we start getting into more cold weather games expect the Packers to lean more on the ground game vs. their norm of airing the ball out.

WR – Kenny Stills, NO ($6,400): Great price for someone who has stepped up to be the number 1 receiving option for the Saints.  I love pairing my quarterback with one of their receiving options for Fanduel tournaments as well.

WR – Robert Woods, BUF ($5,900): Should be a decent play for the price as Buffalo will inevitably need to be throwing for touchdowns to keep up or catch up to the Broncos.  Throw in Orton returning to Denver where he had success and Sammy Watkins being banged up adds some more incentive.

WR – James Jones, OAK ($5,400): Breaking a rule of never playing anyone from Oakland, but going high on other positions this week makes the receiver selections limited.  Strictly went off of who has been averaging the most fantasy points in this price range for this selection.

TE – Antonio Gates, SD ($5,600): New England has been shutting down opposing teams outside receivers but tight ends and slot receivers have had success.  This game has potential for high scoring and if it does expect Gates to be involved in that.

K – Phil Dawson, SF ($4,800): Looked to be the best priced kicker not playing in a cold weather location.  Oakland also gives up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing kickers.

DEF – Houston Texans ($5,300): I love playing any defense against the Jaguars and especially love playing an elite fantasy defense against them.  Good chance for some touchdowns coming here.

Welcome to the article geared to winning the Fanduel Sunday Million.  This week I've made heavy picks around two games that I expect to be fantasy gold mines (Steelers/Falcons and Bears/Saints).  Good luck gamblers!

QB – Matt Ryan, ATL ($7,900):  Going on the cheaper side for my quarterback selection this week.  Ryan goes up against a Steelers defense giving up the 4th most passing touchdowns to opposing QBs so expect him to toss a few in the air to White and Douglas.

RB – Justin Forsett, BAL ($7,700): Forsett has a great match up against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense giving up the 3rd most rushing touchdowns in the league and 130.3 yards per game.  Expect some involvement from Forsett in the passing game this week too.

RB – Jonathan Stewart, CAR ($6,700): It looks like DeAngelo Williams will be sitting out another week which leaves Stewart to get the bulk of the carries against a Tampa Bay defense near the bottom of the league against opposing running backs.  Great volume play for the price here.

WR – Antonio Brown, PIT ($9,100): This is a dream matchup here, the top fantasy wide receiver going up against a Falcons defense giving up the most yards per game to opposing wide receivers.  Should be a huge day for Brown which should compliment my QB pick of Ryan if this turns into a high scoring affair.

WR – Roddy White, ATL ($7,000): Julio Jones should be sitting out on Sunday which gives White a huge boost in value.  Besides that I love this play complimented with the aforementioned Ryan and Brown.

WR – Marquess Wilson, CHI ($4,500): With Brandon Marshall out for the season Wilson will step in as the number two receiving option on a pass happy Chicago Bears team.  He will face a terrible Saints defense ranking near the bottom of the league against the pass so this play has a ton of upside for the price.

TE – Jimmy Graham, NO ($6,900): Graham has posted back to back terrible weeks but this should be where he gets back on track playing a Bears defense ranked 28th against the pass.

K – Steven Hauschka, SF ($5,200): The matchup of Seattle/San Fran should be dominated by defense which means great field goal opportunities from both clubs.  I like taking the home team kicker on this one.

DEF – Kansas City Chiefs ($4,900): The Chiefs get a plus match up playing at home against an Oakland Raiders team that turns the ball over the 3rd most in the league.