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The secret to a good offense is balance. But what rings true in the NFL is not always true for fantasy football. Sometimes a team with a huge imbalance can be very helpful for fantasy - or at least tell us what we should be avoiding. Let’s have a look at teams who are on both sides of the run/pass balance sheet. First up is the team that is running the ball far, far more than any other team in the league.

Chicago Bears - Run 67%, Pass 33% - The Bears are tied for the fewest plays per game in the league, so it’s not as if this offensive imbalance can be exploited all that much. What we do know for sure are two things. One, that this can’t last forever. Eventually, they will have to throw the ball. The Bears run the ball 10% more than the next highest team on the run-heavy side. That’s just absurd. Fields has only one game with double-digit completions, and that tops out at 11. He’s bound to throw the ball more, eventually. Until then, he’s a sit in all formats. Along with any pass catcher on the Bears.

Justin Fields has the same number of rushes and completions this season. The Bears are running the ball this much because their offense is basically anemic. The second thing we know is that there is only one fantasy player worth starting on the Bears, Khalil Herbert. The silver lining we can take away from the analysis of this imbalance is, I suppose, that we can feel confident in starting a backup RB while David Montgomery is out. When he comes back, it’s all going to be thrown into chaos again.

General Analysis - Though it’s not a hard rule, it can generally be interpreted that running the ball too much in this league is a sign of a bad offense. Only 3 of the teams that run the ball more than 50% of the time are in the top 10 of scoring. In the NFL, you need to have a good run game to be good, but you need to be good enough to not have to use it that often. The most balanced team - the one closest to a 50/50 split - is the Tennessee Titans (50.7% run/49.3% pass), and there are only 6 teams that run the ball more than they do. This is clearly a passing league.

Let’s look at the best offense in the league for a moment. The Detroit Lions have scored 140 points in 4 games, and are right smack in the middle of the pack when it comes to run/pass. That doesn’t mean they are 50/50 - they are actually 42.4% run and 57.6% pass. They just have found the best balance that works in today’s NFL. They are 16th in run% and 17th in pass%. The second-best offense in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, are just two spots away from the Lions, leaning towards the pass. Both teams have found the sweet spot of the run-to-pass ratio that is keeping offenses honest and keeping their teams scoring points - the only two in the league to be averaging over 30 points per game.

New York Jets - Run 30.8%, Pass 69.2% - Now we look to the Jets, the team with the biggest imbalance in the league. The Jets throw the ball 4% more than any other team. Despite this imbalance, they are in much better shape than the Bears. The Jets are in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring points (18th), and actually have the 8th most yards from scrimmage in the league. Even though they’re imbalanced, they are still moving the ball a lot since their imbalance comes due to the pass, instead of the run. Passing plays just rack up more stats and that’s a fact. The Jets, with their 5.5 NY/A (net yards gained per pass attempt) are only 24th in the league. It’s still higher than the Bears 5.2 Y/A running the ball, which is a shiny 4th in the league!

Now that we’ve established that passing the ball is intrinsically more valuable than running the ball, even when you are at either extreme, what fantasy insight can we glean on this Jets team? Well, they do have tons of completions - the second-highest number of receptions (tied for 3rd in the league), so there’s lots of value in PPR formats. Unfortunately, they do spread the ball around a ton. Already, 6 players have at least 15 receptions through 4 games. Their leading pass catcher, Tyler Conklin, has 21 catches on the season and is tied for 21st in receptions - I do love fun coincidences like that one. The Jets like to spread it around so much, they even have 4 players who have thrown pass completions already this season. 

Perhaps if the Jets had fewer offensive players to choose from, they would have one or two stand out in fantasy. As it stands, the Jets only have one player who is in the top 10 of points at his position, Tyler Conklin, currently the TE10. The other high water marks are Breece Hall (RB) and Garrett Wilson (WR), both at 19 of their respective positions. I believe that perhaps the most accurate conclusion we can draw from our two examples thus far is that it’s not a good idea to have fantasy players from any team on either extreme of the run/pass split. At least the Jets are running 70 plays per game and have fantasy value based on their expected volume alone, though there are no studs to be seen.

Buffalo Bills - Run 36.3%, Pass 63.7% - Finally, let us take a look at an offense that is unbalanced AND performing well. The Bills are 5th in the league in terms of total points with 114, and they are 6th when it comes to being a pass-heavy offense. The Bills are obviously a good, talented team, whereas the previous two are not. Take a look at where just a few stats can make a world of difference. The Bills have a 6.7 NY/A when passing and are able to squeeze many more fantasy points out of their passing game compared to the Jets, who threw the ball 23 more times, but actually have 2 fewer completions! It’s not about how much you do the thing, it’s about how well you do it.

The Bills are also running the ball efficiently with the time they do run it, probably because defenses have to defend the pass so much. They are gaining 4.8 Y/A, the 11th best in the league, and not that far behind the Bears. Since the best runner on the Bills is Josh Allen, this sort of ruins any chance they have at a candidate for a good fantasy RB. Their best is Devin Singletary, at RB26. They do have Allen all the way up at QB2, and Stefon Diggs at WR2, so it’s clear that their more focused, pass-heavy offense is netting tons of fantasy points.

So, what conclusions can we draw from this exercise? First, it’s not going to help being the team that runs the most or passes the most if you don’t have the right players to exploit it. Chances are, you’re just being forced into those situations because you’re a bad team. Second, it’s best to be in the middle of the pack regarding the split (somewhere around 42% run, 58% pass) to find the most offensive success. Third, you need to have all-pro players to really be a predictable offense and still succeed. If you do not have those players, you are going to struggle to find fantasy success. As much as we want our players to dominate touches or carries, your average player is going to be more likely to excel on a more balanced team.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

42 Pass Completions

If I told you that the franchise record for passing completions for the Colts was 42, you would immediately think of Peyton Manning. Nope, he only has 40. Maybe you would remember Andrew Luck – also topped out at 40, also against Houston, just like Peyton. It turns out, that record now belongs to Matt Ryan, who completed 42 of his 58 pass attempts on Sunday. I guess that’s really called for when Jonathan Taylor has to sit for his second straight game. Ryan threw 13 more passes than the next closest QB (Jacoby Brissett with 45), and had 13 more completions than the next highest total (Garoppolo with 29). Ryan may not be scoring a ton of points in Indy this year, but he’s led the team to a winning record and he has thrown the ball at least 37 times in all but one game this season. There may not be a lot of fantasy production from Ryan, though he is definitely a starting superflex QB every week, there’s value to be found at the WR position. 4 of their WRs are averaging at least 3 catches per game, and 8 players have at least double-digit receptions (Jonathan Taylor not among them).

28.6 Fantasy Points

Ja’Marr Chase led all WRs in fantasy points this week, putting up 7 catches for 132 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. His 28.6-point total was the second-highest of the week, behind his QB, Joe Burrow. Both players seemed to relish in their return to Louisiana, where they won a national championship with LSU. It’s the 4^th time in 23 regular season games that the pair have connected on multiple touchdown passes in one game. Chase has 7 games with 100+ receiving yards in his career, and now 6 games with over 20 fantasy points. He’s the WR5 on this season after this performance, despite half his games being under 9 fantasy points. His forever-teammate, Joe Burrow, is also 5^th at his position in fantasy points. He’s been a bit more consistent, accumulating a respectable total with only two top-5 finishes this season.

19 Total Points

Thursday night football has really been stinking it up lately. It’s best to go ahead and make dinner reservations on Thursdays if the last two games are any indicator. Week 6’s matchup between the Bears and the Commanders was just 3-0 at halftime. Chicago, despite rushing for a ridiculous 238 yards, generated only 7 points. This just goes to show that imbalance I have spoken of over the last few weeks is still a big problem, and not resulting in any good outcomes for the Bears. The previous Thursday resulted in only 2 more points, a 12-9 game that excruciatingly went into overtime – extra football that nobody asked for. Tonight, we’re being given our 4^th primetime look at the Broncos in 6 weeks. Someone at the scheduling office is clearly a fan of bad football. The Saints @ Cardinals this coming Thursday does nothing to dispel that notion. The only advice I can give is to bet on bad football and not start anyone on Thursdays if you can help it.

116 Rushing Yards

Breece Hall is really getting going now in his rookie season. This week, he posted his first game with 100+ rushing yards. He’s now scored a rushing TD in 3 straight weeks – all of them victories for the Jets. He’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry over the last 2 games, and though he’s had only 2 targets per game in the last 3 games, he’s still 3^rd in the league in receiving yards among running backs. Hall is the RB6 on the season and is putting up very consistent fantasy points. He has at least 12 points in every game other than week 1. He has increased his carries every single week, and is averaging just over 5 yards per carry on the season. Hall is really having the season you hoped for if you drafted him first overall in dynasty leagues, and the Jets are surprisingly good, though apparently, it’s not very surprising to them.

616 Rushing Yards

The Jets, however, aren’t even the best team from NYC. The Giants are 5-1, showing that their win last week was not a fluke with this week’s comeback against the Ravens. The Giants now have more wins this season than they did all last year when they went 4-13. Led by Saquon Barkley, the RB2 in fantasy, he has the 2^nd most rushing yards in the league, the 7^th most receiving yards among RBs, and leads the league in rushing attempts. Barkley looks like the player he was in his first two seasons. He has at least 17 points in all but 1 game this year. His next 4 matchups are very favorable, including one against the Texans, who are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs. All 4 of those opponents are giving up top 10 points to opposing RBs. Barkley could definitely be a player to target if you need that one more piece on your squad to put you over the top.

The Carolina Panthers have officially traded star running back Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers, according to a recent tweet by Adam Schefter and announced during a rare Thursday Night Football matchup that was actually high-scoring and entertaining! In return for CMC the Panthers will receive 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks in 2023, and a fifth-rounder in 2024.

Stunner: Panthers are trading Pro-Bowl RB Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for draft picks, sources tell ESPN.

McCaffrey returns to the Bay Area, where he attended Stanford. pic.twitter.com/R474r3eSkv

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 21, 2022

After losing starting running back Elijah Mitchell in the opening game against the Chicago Bears with a sprained MCL, the 49ers have struggled to fill the position and often employ a rotation of players. This move certainly signifies a strong push for the team to go deep into the playoffs and will be looked at positively by fantasy football team managers as the 49ers have far more talent on the roster with the likes of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.

It remains to be seen how quickly Christian McCaffrey will be phased into the offense, but I'm guessing immediately. Sometimes a star player moving to a new offensive scheme and playbook can develop slowly, but all signs point to the fires burning hot here with CMC the uncontested lead back for the 49ers - one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. Look out, NFC West. Look out NFC. 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it through one bye week but getting through a second one could prove to be more of a challenge. The teams off this week contain some of the biggest names in fantasy football – the Bills, the Eagles, the Vikings, and the Rams all boast an elite wide receiver and multiple every-week fantasy starters. There is a plethora of injuries to key fantasy contributors again as well. You may have some work to do to round out your fantasy lineups this week, and you’re probably going to be considering some options that make you feel like vomiting. There’s bound to be at least one rookie you’re considering for a lineup. Luckily, I’m here as always to help break down what to expect from the rookies this week.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 7…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 7: @Den.): Zach Wilson’s return hasn’t spelled fantasy success for the Jets’ pass catchers, but it’s been great for Hall, who has finished as a top-6 PPR RB in each of the last two weeks and has now finished top-15 at the position in 5 straight weeks. The Broncos are a tougher matchup than he’s seen in recent weeks, but at 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA they aren’t exactly a frightening matchup. The Broncos are also forced to start Brett Rypien at QB this week, so game script could be favorable for Breece once again. Treat Hall as a low-end RB1 this week.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): Walker has run for 80+ yards and a touchdown in each of the last two weeks, and he gets a juicy matchup with the Chargers this Sunday. LA ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA.They’ve also allowed 20+ PPR points to a running back in 3 of the last 4 weeks and 15+ in 4 out of 5. Walker still sees limited passing game involvement, so that 20+ number in PPR leagues may be a lofty goal, but KW3 should be a solid RB2 against a bad run defense this week in all formats.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 7: @LV): I still have concerns about Pierce getting usage in the passing game (Rex Burkhead has played 100% of the two-minute offense snaps and 93% of the long down & distance snaps for the season), but Pierce is handling almost all of the rushing work and is going to be a weekly RB2 in any weeks where the Texans don’t get blown out in the first half. The Raiders are 7-point favorites in this game, so there’s some risk of game script getting away from Houston, but I trust that Pierce will get enough opportunity to be useful against the Raiders’ middling run defense. Vegas ranks 15^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB): Robinson’s first two games have gone pretty much as expected. The Commanders have used him as an early down hammer in the run game, and he’s been an afterthought in the passing game. He managed to grind his way to 60 rushing yards last week, and a late TD pushed him up to a top-20 PPR finish for the week. The biggest takeaway for me was that Robinson handled nearly 60% of the team's rushing attempts. The team is making a point to get him the football, and this week he faces a defense that ranks 32^nd in run defense DVOA. Robinson should be more efficient running the ball this week against that unit, so there’s a lot of upside for him if the Commanders can keep this game competitive and keep feeding him the football. Be warned that Robinson’s usage is game-script dependent. He isn’t going to be used in clear passing situations, so if you think Green Bay has a bounce-back game and wins easily, you shouldn’t start Robinson. I think this game stays close enough that the Commanders’ rookie back is a top-20 RB option for me.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 7: @Was.): The Packers’ offense has been out of sorts in recent weeks, but that’s no reason to shy away from starting Doubs this week. Romeo has earned 8+ targets in 3 of his past 4 games, Christian Watson and Randall Cobb are out this week, and the Commanders allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. The production has been inconsistent for Doubs, but he should see solid volume in a plus matchup. I’d view him as a WR2 this week.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 7: @Cin.): London’s biggest weekly concern is team passing volume. He’s had at least a 29% target share and 27% air yardage share each and every week, but the Falcons have averaged just 21 pass attempts per game in the last 5 weeks. The biggest key for London will be the Falcons playing from behind and needing to throw the ball more often. I actually think that happens here. The Bengals’ offense has been due for a breakout game for weeks, and the Falcons are the worst defense they’ve faced this season (29^th in total defense DVOA). I think the Bengals put up points, and Atlanta is forced to throw 30+ times for the first time since week 1. The matchup isn’t ideal against a decent Bengals’ defense, but with so many top WRs off this week, London is still a fringe WR2.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 7: @Ten.): Pierce has seen his playing time jump in recent weeks, but that jump coincided with injury absences for Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. Don’t be shocked if he’s back in the 45-50% snap range this week with both backs expected back, but Pierce was producing even before the playing time increase in the last two games. He’s caught for at least 60 yards in 4 straight contests, and the Titans rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Pierce should still have a nice floor as a low end WR3 even if his snaps get scaled back, and he’s got a nice ceiling in a great matchup if those increased snaps continue.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pickens has earned 6+ targets in each of the last 4 games, and he gets Kenny Pickett back at QB this week. The Dolphins allow the 8^th-most WR points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and their best corner Xavien Howard will match up mostly with Diontae Johnson. Everything is shaping up for a strong showing for Pickens on Sunday. He’s a solid WR3 option this week.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Robinson was eased back into action in his first game since week 1, playing just 15 offensive snaps, but he was targeted on 35% of his routes run and finished the day with a 3-37-1 line. His playing time should go way up this week and the Giants are desperate for pass-catching help. Robinson should spend most of his time in the slot, matched up with Darious Williams, who has a PFF coverage grade of just 41.9 this season (100^th out of 108 qualified CBs). I expect 6+ targets this week. Robinson should be a fine floor WR3 play in PPR leagues, with upside for more if the individual matchup is as fruitful as it looks on paper.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pickett’s a fine option this week if you’re looking for a QB2, but I’d probably look elsewhere for a starter in 1-QB formats. The matchup may look enticing on paper. The Dolphins have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game and as I mentioned with Pickens Miami ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA, but when you look at what QBs they’ve faced those ranks look like they may be skewed by a tough QB schedule. The Phins have faced 3 QBs currently in the top-5 in fantasy points this season – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. Those 3 QBs averaged 30 fantasy points against the Dolphins. The other 3 QBs they’ve faced (Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins and Zach Wilson) have averaged just 13.5 fantasy points in those games. Pickett probably fits in better with that second group than the first one. There are 26 QBs who average more than 13.5 fantasy points per game so far this season.

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): It looks like Mac Jones is going to be able to return on Monday night to face the Bears, but if he isn’t and Zappe is under center again, I’d treat him as a mid-range QB2. The Bears are much worse against the run than the pass (27^th in run defense DVOA, 14^th in pass defense DVOA), and the Pats will be happy to run it down their throats with Rhamondre and Damien Harris. Anything over 25 passing attempts for Zappe or Mac would be a bonus. Either QB would likely need to hit their ceiling efficiency to crack the top-12 QBs for the week.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 7: @Cin.): Allgeier has played an expanded role in each of the last two weeks with Cordarrelle Patterson sidelined, but he’s finished with just 4.5 and 5.1 PPR points in those two contests against tough run defenses and gets a tough matchup again this week with the Bengals. Allgeier hasn’t been involved in the passing game (just 2 total targets on the year), and the Bengals have allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. Cincy has only allowed 60+ rushing yards to two backs all season, and only 1 running back rushing TD. Caleb Huntley has been more impressive than Allgeier on limited opportunities, so there’s no guarantee that Tyler keeps playing more than half the snaps. If you start Allgeier you’re crossing your fingers that he manages to fall into the end zone.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 7: @Den.): It may seem like a good thing for Wilson that the Jets will play without Elijah Moore this week, but Moore’s absence likely solidifies that it will be Wilson who operates as the Jets’ WR1 and draws the coverage of Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos have held opposing WRs to the 2^nd-fewest fantasy points per game this year, and they’ve been especially effective against the top options on those teams. Surtain helped limit Mike Williams to 2-17, Michael Pittman Jr. to 5-59, and DK Metcalf to 7-36. The Jets are already struggling to put up aerial production with Zach Wilson under center. Wilson averages just 14 completions and 191 passing yards per game through 3 games, and I wouldn’t expect a substantial change this week against a tough Broncos’ secondary. Garrett Wilson is a contrarian DFS option and dicey WR4 this week.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Thornton made a big impact in his second game of the season last week, scoring 2 TDs on 4 catches and 3 rushing attempts, but his playing time may have been boosted by injuries to Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Both players practiced in a limited capacity on Friday and are questionable for this game. The Patriots are 8-point favorites this week, and the Bears are abysmal against the run, so Thornton likely will need to make a splash play or two on limited opportunities in a run-heavy game plan. He has the wheels to score on almost any play, but he’s an upside dart throw with a low floor against a Chicago defense that allows the 4^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB): Dotson is listed as questionable for this week, but I’d guess he’s on the wrong side of that tag after tweaking his hamstring again in practice Thursday. The Packers have been much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. They allow just the 7^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA. If Dotson is able to play, I’d view him as a WR4 this week.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Bellinger has been a pleasant surprise this season for the Giants, ranking as the TE13 in PPR points per game so far this year, and he played his highest snap share of the season last weekend (94%). It’s an exciting development for those who drafted Bellinger in dynasty leagues or got him late in deep redraft leagues, but this isn’t a great week to plug him in as your TE1. The Jaguars have allowed the 11^th-fewest TE points per game and only 1 TD to the position. Bellinger hasn’t topped 40 yards in any game this season, so he needs a TD to return value. I also worry that his snap share last week could be a bit of a mirage. Backup Tanner Hudson was held out of practice with an illness on Thursday and Friday last week before playing only 12% of the snaps in the game Sunday. He’d played 35%+ of the snaps in each of the 4 games prior to week 6. If his snaps come back up this week, it will likely be at Bellinger’s expense. Bellinger is still the clear TE1 here, but he’s just a high-end TE2 in a tougher matchup this week.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Dulcich played a full-time role in his NFL debut and ran a route on about two-thirds of the team's passing dropbacks on Monday night against the Chargers. He scored a long TD and finished as the TE9 for the week, and this week he faces a Jets’ defense that’s only a middling unit against TEs (17^th-most TE points per game allowed). Unfortunately, it’s a big question what kind of quarterback play he’ll get this week with Brett Rypien starting in place of an injured Russell Wilson. Rypien has made just 1 NFL start in his career (oddly enough, it was against the Jets). It’s not a big sample size, but in that game, he was willing to push the ball down the field to his perimeter wide receivers. He finished with 242 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. This year’s version of the Jets’ defense is much better than the one Rypien faced the first time around. There’s too much uncertainty in what we’ll see from Rypien for me to confidently start Dulcichas a TE1 this week.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 7: @Car.): Cam Brate has been ruled out for week 7 with a neck injury, so Otton should serve as the full-time tight end against the Panthers. Otton drew 7 targets the last time Brate missed a game in week 5, but I expect the Bucs to play from ahead for most of this game and don’t expect nearly the same passing volume in this one. Tom Brady threw the ball 52 times in that week 5 contest. The Panthers also have defended the TE position well, allowing just the 8^th-fewest points per game to the position. There’s upside in any game where Otton plays a full-time role with Brady under center, but I’d view him as a mid-range TE2 this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Tua is practicing this week and is expected to make the start against the Steelers with Teddy Bridgewater back to serving as the backup. Thompson looked good early on Sunday against the Dolphins, but he suffered a nasty injury to his thumb on his throwing hand that cut his day short. Hopefully, he gets another chance to play at some point.

QB Sam Howell, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB): Staring QB Carson Wentz was placed on IR this week with a thumb injury, but the Commanders will turn to Taylor Heinicke to start in his absence rather than the rookie Howell. Keep tabs on this situation…if Heinicke performs poorly it could open the door for Howell to get on the field, but there’s no reason to consider him this week.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Najee Harris continued to be his usual, inefficient self last week, totaling 49 scrimmage yards on 16 touches, but Warren handled just 2 carries and zero targets in the game. He’s touched the ball more than 5 times just once this season. It’s impossible to rely on him in starting lineups until his touches start to increase or Najee gets a week off.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 7: @SF): The trend has continued to look the same for Pacheco. When the Chiefs win in a romp, he gets late playing time. When the game is competitive, he only gets a few opportunities. He’s yet to handle more than 4 touches in a game where the Chiefs didn’t win by double-digits. Kansas City is just a 1-point favorite this week, and the 49ers are the best team in the NFL in run defense DVOA.

RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF (Wk. 7: vs. KC): TDP was activated from IR last week, and there was a chance for his role to grow this week after Jeff Wilson Jr. was mostly ineffective against Atlanta, but the 49ers dumped cold water on that when they added Christian McCaffrey in a trade on Thursday. I’d expect McCaffrey to be able to play at least a part-time role this week, and that leaves nothing for Davis-Price behind CMC and Wilson. If McCaffrey somehow isn’t ready to play this week, Davis-Price is no more than an upside dart throw in DFS showdown contests.

RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Rhamondre Stevenson handled 85% of the backfield touches in week 6 with Damien Harris sidelined. The two rookie backs did play a little bit, but neither recorded a single touch until the Pats were up by 3 scores in the third quarter. There isn’t enough here for either guy to be relevant unless Rhamondre gets hurt, and it also appears that Damien Harris will return this week.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 7: @NE): Ebner has been an afterthought for the Bears since Khalil Herbert returned from injury in week 5. He’s played just 4 total offensive snaps in the last two weeks.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 7: @SF): Moore’s playing time seemed to be headed in the right direction, but he’s plateaued at about 30% of the team's offensive snaps in the last few weeks. He may eventually gain more traction in this offense, but a 30% role against a defense that allows the 5^th-fewest WR points per game isn’t the profile of a player you want to start.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Philips showed out in week 1 as the Titans’ starting slot wide receiver, but he was hurt in week 2 and has been slow to get his playing time back after returning in week 4. He played just 2 snaps in his first game back, and 18 snaps in week 5 ahead of the team bye last week. He could see those snaps take another step forward this week, but the Colts have allowed the fewest PPR points per game to WRs lined up in the slot per Sports Info Solutions. It’s worth monitoring his playing time with Treylon Burks still on IR, but don’t start Philips anywhere this week.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Bell saw a season-high in snaps and route participation rate in week 6 with the Browns playing from behind by multiple scores for much of the game, but it resulted in just 2 targets and 1 catch for 13 yards. Nothing has changed for Bell going forward.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 7: @NE): Jones is slowly getting more integrated into the offense, but he was at just 12 offensive snaps in his 3^rd game of the season, and he muffed a punt in that game. He’s playing a limited role in an offense that ranks 28^th in yards and 31^st in points in the NFL.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Tolbert will probably be inactive for the 6^th time in 7 games.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 7: @Was.): In case you missed the news, Watson has been ruled out for week 7 with injury.

TEs Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): I included Kolar this week because he’s been cleared for practice and may be close to returning from IR. I wouldn’t expect him to step into a significant role right away with Mark Andrews and Likely pretty deeply cemented as the TE1 and TE2 in front of him. He may eventually take some of Likely’s role, but it’s a role that hasn’t made Likely a viable fantasy option. Likely has totaled just 6 targets in the last two weeks with Rashod Bateman sidelined. Mark Andrews caught a questionable tag this week with a knee injury. If Andrews sits, Likely becomes a fringe TE1, and Kolar a DFS dart throw (assuming he’s active).

TE Jake Ferguson& Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): The matchup here is good – Detroit allows the 8^th-most TE points per game – but it appears that Dalton Schultz will return this week after being a surprise inactive in week 6 with a knee injury. Schultz has practiced in full all week and gets back his QB in Dak Prescott as well. If Schultz plays, Ferguson and Hendershot will be afterthoughts. If Schultz were to sit again, they’d split the TE role evenly. In that scenario, I wouldn’t want to start either player.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Okonkwo has yet to play more than 16 offensive snaps in any game this season. The Colts do allow the 7^th-most TE points per game, so there’s maybe some hope for the rookie as a DFS dart throw, but Okonkwo has a low ceiling and a non-existent floor.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 7: @Car.): The Panthers have essentially waved the white flag on this season after trading away Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey in the last week. The Bucs enter the weekend as 2-touchdown favorites against those Panthers, and that should open the door for some garbage time work for Rachaad White. Rachaad has already handled 7+ touches in each of the last 3 games, but if this game goes the way Vegas expects it to that should rise into the 12-15 range against Carolina. I think White is an upside RB3 in what should be a blowout win for the Bucs.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 7: @Sea.): It’s been reported that Spiller will be active for the first time all year on Sunday with Joshua Kelley placed on IR, and it’s possible he sees some work in his debut. Austin Ekeler is still the clear lead back here, but the Chargers have had an average of 11.5 non-Ekeler backfield touches per game this year split between Kelley and Sony Michel. Kelley is out, and Michel has been ineffective, averaging just 3.4 yards per touch. This may be Spiller’s best opportunity to carve out his role as the complement to Ekeler. Seattle is 21^st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game. I mention Spiller here mostly as a stash in deeper leagues, but he costs just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests.

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 7: vs. TB): I mention Blackshear here as a stash option in the deepest of PPR leagues. He’s a small receiving back who was a UDFA out of Virginia Tech. Blackshear should now be active on game days with McCaffrey traded away, but I’d expect that he’ll start out behind both D’onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard on the depth chart. Hubbard has struggled as a receiver at the NFL level, but the Panthers have shown a continued willingness to use him in a pass-catching despite the struggles. Keep an eye on what the backfield usage looks like this week, but none of the RBs in Carolina are great options against a Tampa defense that allows the fewest RB points per game.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 7: Bye): The Rams are on a bye this week, so it might be your last chance to grab Kyren for free if he’s still available in deeper leagues. Cam Akers was away from the team last week due to frustration with his role/usage, and the Rams are making efforts to trade him away. That will leave just Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Kyren as available running backs for the Rams. Henderson will be the RB1, but the Rams had plans for Williams to contribute on offense this year before his injury hit, and he should have a role as a receiving back behind Henderson after the bye. One thing to be aware of here though…the Rams have targeted a running back on just 4 of their 55 third-down pass attempts this season. Kyren isn’t a priority stash, but he’s worth consideration if you’re desperate for running back help in PPR leagues.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 7: @Dal.): Williams isn’t going to be activated this week, but he shouldn’t be on waivers in most leagues, especially those with an IR slot available. Jameson has league-winner upside once he’s able to get on the field. He has 4.3-second speed and put up over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs at Alabama last season. He’ll immediately be a top-2 wide receiver on the Lions along with Amon-Ra St. Brown once he’s able to play. DJ Chark going on IR this week has cleared a runway to immediate playing time for Williams when he’s ready to go.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 7: @Ten.): Woods still isn’t playing a large portion of the snaps for Indy, but he’s seen his snaps and route participation rate steadily go up as the season’s gone on, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that he expects the Colts to look to get him more involved going forward. Woods has been the target on 21% of the Colts’ pass attempts into the end zone this year, and the Titans gave up two tight end scores when they faced the Colts in week 4. Woods is by no means a top-10 TE option this week since he plays less than half of the offensive snaps, but he’s got upside for DFS or if you’re desperate in season-long leagues.

TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB):I mention Turner here because Logan Thomas is already ruled out for this week and John Bates is questionable to play after injuring his hamstring in pre-game warmups last week. Turner was targeted just twice in that game last week, but he was on the field for 93% of the Commanders’ offensive plays. He’s going to play a full-time role if Bates is out, and if you’re looking for a waiver wire TE in deeper leagues, anyone with a pulse is worth consideration. That’s pretty much all Turner is this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.