Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

3 Touchdowns in a Game

Last night Le'Veon Bell scored three touchdowns to help the Steelers in a dramatic comeback win over the Ravens. Yesterday was also, I'm sure you're aware, the first week of the fantasy football players. When it comes to the playoffs, one guy really excels at getting you off to a good start. In his last three Week 14 games, he has scored 3 times each. Over those three games, Bell is averaging just under 40 points per game. That's a hell of a way to start the playoffs and well worth his high draft position every year. This year, his performance was a bit below average, putting up a measly 30.50 points, which was still good for the best fantasy performance of the weekend. This "disappointing" performance will cause me to limit my entries on Bell this year, unlike Week 14 of last season.

116 Receiving Yards Per Game

Even though Bell is scoring touchdowns left and right, he's not the MVP of his team. No sir, that title belongs to Antonio Brown. Last night he hung 213 yards on the Ravens on 11 receptions. This is his second 200+ yard game, and the 12th time he has gone over 150 yards in his career. 5 of those 150+ yard games have come this season. This year, Brown is averaging 116 receiving yards per game, he leads the league with 1509 (well ahead of the pack) and he's on pace to set a career high in receiving yards. This is his most explosive season of his career as well, averaging 15.2 yards per catch, another career high. His yards, yards per game, and total receptions of 99 also lead the league in 2017. If ever there was a case for a non-QB to be considered for league MVP, Antonio Brown's 2017 season is it.

2-0 Record

Since assuming starting duties for the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo has gone 2-0, leading the 49ers directly away from very high draft pick territory. If they're not careful, they could even drop out of the top 10 picks. Sarcasm aside, tanking is disgraceful (lookin' at you, John Mara). So, Jimmy G hasn't lit up the score sheets, but he is playing well and creating some fantasy value for himself (in 2 QB leagues) and the guys around him. Robbie Gould has 9 field goals in the last 2 games, a product of an offense that is moving the ball quite well. Marquise Goodwin has put together two solid games, Carlos Hyde is back to a regular RB2 and even Garrett Celek got in on the action this past week. The 49ers have matchups against the Titans and then Jaguars, so get them in your lineup for Week 15 and be very cautions for Week 16.

2-0 Record in Overtime

Not only did Brett Hundley preserve the Packers chances to make the playoffs, but he improved his career record in overtime to 2-0. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it looks a lot better than Aaron Rodgers' 1-7 record. The major side effect of this win for Hundley is that it basically assures that Rodgers will come back next week. Assuming that Rodgers is back to himself for this week (indications so far are that he is), this is great news if you stashed him for your playoff run. Jordy Nelson should also return to relevance, so check your wire to see if a frustrated owner cut him a few weeks ago. Davante Adams has actually been solid with Hundley, so hopefully you've already been starting him. The biggest question is going to be the production of Jamaal Williams. He has been a great waiver wire find to close out the season, scoring 67.6 points over the last 3 weeks. I feel that his production will take a hit with Rodgers in, but he has to be started because his usage should still be high.

161 Yards

No, that's not how much snow fell on the Colts-Bills game on Sunday. This was a freaking awesome game to watch on TV - I love watching bad weather games, and none look better than a game with a ridiculous amount of snow. In the, we'll say inclement weather, both teams combined for a whopping 161 passing yards. Jacoby Brissett's longest pass went for 11 yards, so maybe it wasn't exactly a banner day for all of the ex-Patriots quarterbacks. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy had 156 rush yards in the game. He had the walk-off winner, a 21 yard rush for a touchdown in overtime with only 1:33 left in the game. McCoy clearly loves playing in the snow - 4 years ago he had 217 yards and 2 TD's in Philly against Detroit in an equally snowy game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally made it. It’s championship week! All of the weeks of agonizing over lineup decisions and waiver wire pickups have come down to this. The key to this week is avoiding landmines. In most of the tough decisions you have this week, the rule of thumb should be to play the guy whose volume you feel the most confident in. You don’t want to get stuck with LeGarrette Blount getting 6 touches, or Sammy Watkins getting 4 targets. This week it’s all about trust. I’ll still list a few players who are mostly worth DFS consideration, but I’ll try to be as definitive as possible with my opinions on most of the rookies for this week. Remember, players that are under the same header and at the same position are listed in the order I like them for this week. Let’s dive in and look at what to expect in week 16…

Rookies to Start:

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Atl.): While Kamara wasn’t quite as studly in his return from a concussion last week as he had been the 5 weeks prior to sustaining the injury, he still topped 20 PPR points and finished as the RB10 for the week. The Falcons seem like a tougher matchup on paper, allowing the 12^th-fewest RB points per game this season, but they’ve been vulnerable to receiving backs all year. No team has allowed more than the 91 RB receptions that Atlanta has given up, and only 4 teams have given up more receiving TDs to running backs. Kamara is averaging over 28 PPR points per game in his last 6 healthy games with at least 20 in each. You have to play him this week if you’ve got him, and his high-end DFS price might actually be worth it to have him in your lineup. He should be a cash game staple this week.

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Good Kareem Hunt has finally returned! Hopefully it was in time to keep your season alive. As I said last week, you have to play him if you’ve got him. The upside is tremendous. Miami is a great matchup for Hunt this week. They’ve given up the 3^rd-most RB points in the league, and game script should be heavily in Hunt’s favor with the Chiefs a 10-point home favorite. In the past 2 weeks, both comfortable wins where the Chiefs played mostly from ahead, Hunt handled 29.5 touches per game. Strong volume should be there again this week, and Hunt should be right there with Alvin Kamara as the premier running back plays of the week.

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 16: @SF): It was a surprise that Fournette missed last week’s game, but he should be ready to go this week. A win this week would clinch the division for Jacksonville, so don’t look for them to rest any starters or limit their snaps just because they clinched a playoff spot. When healthy, Fournette’s volume is consistent enough that you could set your watch by it. He’s handled at least 15 touches in every game he’s been healthy and 20+ in 8 out of those 11 games. The 49ers have been much improved against running backs since Reuben Foster got fully healthy in week 9. In the first 8 weeks, the 49ers were coughing up 31.7 RB points per game, and at least 23 points in 7 of them. In the 5 games since, no opponent has reached 23 RB points and they’ve allowed an average of just 16.5 per game. Despite that improved play by the 49ers D, Fournette’s volume should carry him to a low-end RB1 day. I’d prefer Kamara or Hunt for DFS purposes, but Fournette should be in your championship week lineups in season-long leagues.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): McCaffrey returned to the RB1 ranks last week with his 3^rd 60+ yard rushing day and his 7^th touchdown of the season. This week he gets to square off with a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game and ranks 21^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. It should be another great opportunity for CMC to finish as a top-15 running back. He’s shown an incredibly stable floor with at least 8.3 PPR points and 4 targets in every game this year. He’s a reliably safe RB2 option this week in a plus matchup.

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): It’s still not a done deal that Mixon returns this week, but if he does, he comes back to an ideal matchup. The Lions have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game for the season, but since Haloti Ngata went on IR they’ve been coughing up 28 points per game to the position, and a large chunk of that has come on the ground. Detroit is giving up 109 rushing yards per game and has surrendered 11 rushing scores in the 9 games Ngata has missed. They’ve also allowed the 7^th-most RB catches and 11^th-most RB receiving yards for the season. The Lions are bad in every aspect of defending the opposing backs. If Mixon is a full go, he should be slated as an RB2 this week.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 16: @Hou.): This week could be as good an opportunity as JuJu has had all year to shine. The Steelers will be without leading receiver Antonio Brown and his absurd 11.6 targets per game (12.2 if you don’t include his shortened outing against the Pats). That volume has to go somewhere. There is a chance the Steelers will lean more on Le’Veon Bell and the run game to make up the difference, but the Texans rank 6^th in run defense DVOA and might force the issue. Houston ranks 23^rd in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game. This is a golden opportunity for JuJu, and you should treat him as a WR2 this week. He should pretty much be chalk in DFS lineups, especially at his $5,400 price tag on DraftKings.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 16: @Ari.): The Cardinals have been fairly stingy to opposing tight ends of late, allowing just 17-155-1 total to the position in their past 5 games (7.3 PPR points per game), but the Giants entire passing game revolves around Engram and Sterling Shepard, and there is a good chance Shepard is going to be chased around by Patrick Peterson in this one. Engram may not be an ideal choice for DFS lineups in this tougher matchup, but he should remain a top-5 or 6 option for season-long leagues. The Giants have to throw it to someone, and all year long Engram has consistently been that someone.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Trubisky has thrown for 585 yards in the last 2 weeks, and the Browns have allowed at least 17 fantasy points to 6 of the last 7 quarterbacks they’ve faced. There’s always a concern that the volume dries up on Mitch if the Bears play from ahead (and they are a 6.5-point home favorite), but the Browns have given up at least 19 fantasy points to all 4 QBs that have attempted fewer than 30 passes against them. That list of QBs includes Jacoby Brissett and Andy Dalton. Mitch is far from a sure thing despite the great matchup, but he is an intriguing streaming option for 2-QB leagues or leagues with 14+ teams.

RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 16: @Ari.): With Eli Manning having a shortage of WRs, he’s been leaning on the running backs in the passing game over the past couple of weeks, and Gallman has been a primary benefactor. Shane Vereen has still been involved with 9 targets in the past 2 games, but Gallman has seen 16 targets to go along with 20 carries in those 2 contests. He’s failed to find the end zone, but he’s finished as the RB15 and RB18 in those games. The Cardinals pose a tough test for most running backs, allowing the 9^th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’ve also given up the 10^th-most RB receptions and 11^th-most RB receiving yards. If Gallman’s usage remains the same, he should finish as a low end RB2 or high-end flex again. He’s definitely an option who could be available if you are trying to avoid using either Green Bay running back.

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 16: @Ten.): Kupp’s numbers took a big hit last week with the return of Robert Woods and the game script getting away from the passing game. The Rams built an insurmountable lead early and didn’t need to throw much in the 2^nd half, but I don’t expect this week’s game to be 34-0 by halftime, so Goff should be throwing at least a little more than the 21 times he threw last week. The Titans are vulnerable to WRs. Tennessee has allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, and has been especially vulnerable over the middle, where slot receivers like Kupp do a big chunk of their damage. The Titans rank dead last in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws over the middle. Kupp has a chance to eat them up. He’s back in play as a WR3 option this week.

WRs Keelan Cole & Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 16: @SF): I was fully bought in on Westbrook last week, but it was Cole came up big, finishing as the WR1 for the week in a stunning turn of events. If he’s not already owned in your dynasty leagues, he should be a priority stash right now with Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee both hitting free agency this offseason. While Westbrook has been getting all of the attention as the snaps and targets headed his way have piled up, it’s been Cole who has been the better fantasy player. Cole has scored a TD in each of the past 3 games, and now has put up 18-388-3 on 28 targets (5.6 per game) over the past 5 games while Westbrook has tallied 22-256-1 on 35 targets (7 per game). With Marqise Lee already ruled out for this week, both Cole and Westbrook are intriguing flex options in a decent matchup as the 49ers rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. The fact that Jaydon Mickens caught 2 TDs last week is a little concerning, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance this week. I’d expect Mickens to be mostly in the slot, and the 49ers rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA on throws over the middle, and 30^th or worse on throws to both the left side and right side of the field. Cole has shown a higher ceiling, but Westbrook has shown the safer volume.

Rookies to Sit:

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 16: @Chi.): This week should present a legitimate opportunity for the Browns to get their first win of the season, but to get it Kizer will have to manage to limit the turnovers, something he’s failed to do all season. He’s turned the ball over 7 times in the past 3 weeks and 25 times on the year. Being yo-yo’d in and out of the lineup by coach Hue Jackson has clearly stunted his development and hurt his confidence level. The Bears have the 3^rd-fewest interceptions in the league as a defense, but they also allow the 8^th-fewest QB fantasy points. Given how poorly Kizer played last week, you’d have to be much braver than I am to trust him in any lineups this week.

RBs Jamaal Williams & Aaron Jones, GB (Wk. 16: vs. Min.): This is a situation best avoided. Green Bay is eliminated from playoff contention, and the Vikings are still alive in the race for the number 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The motivation in this one could be pretty one-sided. Shutting Aaron Rodgers back down will probably increase Green Bay’s rushing volume, but it’s hard to be confident that Williams will still see the vast majority of the work, and the Vikings allow the fewest RB points per game in the league. Green Bay will also be without Hundley’s favorite passing target, Davante Adams in this one, giving Minnesota one less weapon to worry about defending. If you want to take a shot at one of these guys in a DFS tournament, go ahead. There’s a chance that one of them has a nice game. I’d be more inclined to try Aaron Jones than Williams thanks to the discounted price tag, but there is nothing certain about either of these two this week.

RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Perine has gone in the tank the past 3 weeks while the Broncos’ defense appears to have righted the ship in the past 2 after struggling mightily for a 5-game stretch. Denver has allowed 90 rushing yards total to opposing backs in the past 2 weeks and held the Jets’ and Colts’ offenses to a combined 13 points in 2 convincing wins. Perine posted back-to-back 100-yard rushing games a month ago, but he’s totaled just 120 rushing yards in the 3 games since, finishing as the RB33, RB33, and RB36 in those games. Denver is a tougher matchup than any of the 3 teams he just faced, and he also tweaked his groin in practice on Thursday. If Perine is able to play, he shouldn’t find his way into your lineup.

RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 16: @NYJ): Ekeler has just 7 touches in the last 2 weeks and managed to lose a fumble on one of those touches, and this week he might not even play. As of Thursday he looks like a true game-time decision, and there is no way to trust him even if he does play. I’d stay away in all formats.

RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Oak.): Clement played just 15% of the offensive snaps last week in Nick Foles’ first start for Philly, reversing a trend that had him playing ahead of LeGarrette Blount in week 14. He hasn’t seen more than 7 touches in any of the past 5 games, and hasn’t reached 7 PPR points in any of the past 4. Oakland’s defense isn’t anything impressive, but Clement hasn’t been receiving the kind of volume you can bet on, even against a bad defense.

RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): If I believed Matt Forte was actually going to miss this game, I would probably have snuck McGuire into the ‘Sleeper’ section below, but I don’t think he will. If the running back role stays a 3 person committee, it’ll be too muddled to rely on McGuire. The Chargers have been vulnerable to the run, allowing the 10^th-most RB points per game and ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA, but McGuire has seen just 19 touches total in the last 4 weeks. He needs an injury ahead of him to see the field enough to be useful.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 16: @Bal.): Mack is averaging about 40 yards on 7 touches per game in the past 3 weeks, and this week the Colts’ implied point total is around 14 points. You can do better than Mack this week. He’s nothing more than a punt option for DFS tournaments, but one who hasn’t produced in weeks and costs $1,000 more than the minimum in DraftKings.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 16: @Cin.): Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that Golladay’s opportunities will increase with TJ Jones now on IR. Over the past 3 weeks Golladay has out-snapped Jones 154-32, and in that time he’s posted just 9 catches for 90 yards on 12 targets. The deep balls are fun when they happen for Kenny G, but they’ve dried up of late, and the Bengals allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. There are better places to look for an upside DFS punt play.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): In case the pedestrian stat lines Davis has been putting up aren’t enough to convince you to bench him this week, the Rams have allowed the 8^th-fewest WR points per game so far this year. Davis hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points since week 1. I still believe in Corey long-term, but if you don’t you should be able to find a buyer who will still be willing to pay a pretty penny for him this offseason in dynasty leagues. I think a coaching change in Tennessee would help that entire offense a great deal.

WRs Trent Taylor and Kendrick Bourne, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): As well as Jimmy Garoppolo has been playing, I have a simple rule of thumb here…don’t trust fringe fantasy WRs against the Jaguars. They haven’t been quite as impenetrable over the past few weeks as they were for most of the year, but they’ve still only allowed 4 receivers all year to reach 80 receiving yards: Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Corey Coleman, and Tyler Lockett. Taylor and Bourne don’t belong in that group. If you wanted to buy into one of these guys as a contrarian play, I’d go with Bourne. The Jags have allowed 10 passing TDs in the last 6 weeks, and all of them have traveled over 20 yards. Nine of them went 25+ yards, and 4 of them went 40+ yards. Only Marquise Goodwin averages more yards per catch for San Francisco than Bourne’s 16.7. Taylor averages 10.1.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Zay saw just 2 targets last week while playing 70% of the offensive snaps. This has pretty much been a lost season for him, and I wouldn’t count on him getting it turned around this week. The Pats have allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game, but Jones has just 25 catches on 70 targets for the season. Steer clear.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Kittle had his best showing since week 5 last Sunday, but he finished as just the TE18 for the week, and I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance. He was still comfortably out-snapped and out-produced by teammate Garrett Celek, and he goes from facing off with the team allowing the 8^th-most TE points per game to the team allowing the 3^rd-fewest. There’s no reason to test out Kittle in any format this week.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 16: @Chi.): Njoku has just 1 catch for 3 yards on 5 targets in the last 2 weeks, and the Bears are in the top half of the league at limiting TE points. There’s no reason to chase a TD that is unlikely to happen. There are better dart throws out there this week. See below for two specific ones.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Tion Green, DET (Wk. 16: @Cin.): Green has seen 10+ carries in 2 of the 3 games he’s been active for, and this week Detroit faces a Bengals team that has allowed a league-worst 131.5 rushing yards per game. Theo Riddick was questionable earlier this week, but it looks like he’ll be able to play. If Detroit manages to get out in front in this game, they may rest Riddick and give Green extended run. With Riddick playing, Green will be no more than a DFS punt option (a better option in formats that aren’t full PPR), but he could have a really nice day if he finds his way to 15+ carries.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Cohen’s touches have been up and down of late, but his snap share has been fairly consistent over the past month or so. He’s played at least 35% of the offensive snaps in each of the past 5 games, and pushed up near 50% in two of them. This week’s matchup plays more into Cohen’s strengths than Jordan Howard’s. The Browns rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and allow a league-low 3.3 yards per carry, but they rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Cohen has twice as many catches as Howard on the year. I like Cohen if you are looking for a cheap DFS option at running back this week. He’ll cost just $3,700 on DraftKings.

WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 16: @Car.): Godwin could be a DFS tournament winner this week. DeSean Jackson looks unlikely to play Sunday (he’s not practicing as of Thursday), and Godwin costs the minimum on DraftKings. He posted a 5-68 line the last time a Tampa starting WR was out, and he’s played over 50% of the offensive snaps in each of the past 2 games. Tampa has also started to throw the ball with a little more success, putting up at least 270 passing yards & 2 TDs through the air in each of the last 3 games. The Panthers have allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game for the season, and over the past 6 games they’ve been especially bad, coughing up 44.4 points per game to the position. The Bucs are the worst team in the league at defending WRs, and they allow 40.7 per game. Godwin also may benefit from OJ Howard being on IR, as the Bucs could use another big, physical playmaker in his place. If Jackson is out, Godwin has serious upside this week.

WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 16: @NYJ): I mention Williams here solely as a stash option for dynasty leagues. If by some chance he’s landed on your waiver wire as he’s scuffled along to just 10 catches for 87 yards on 19 targets, you should be scooping him up before we hit the offseason and rosters lock. Tyrell Williams will be a restricted free agent this offseason, so there may be some targets that open up  in the Chargers’ offense, and top-10 draft pick rookie WRs rarely are available on the wire.

TE Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): If you’re looking for a DFS dart throw at TE this week, you’re not going to find one much better than Seals-Jones. The Giants have allowed 50+ receiving yards to the tight end position in 11 of their 14 games this year, and have allowed a tight end score in 11 as well. There is a little concern since RSJ’s connection seemed to be with Blaine Gabbert who was benched, and his snaps have been limited, but he’s clearly shown himself to be the best receiving tight end in the desert. If you’re throwing a dart at any Cardinals’ TE against the worst TE defense in the league, it should be Seals-jones.

TE Adam Shaheen, CHI (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): I mentioned under Ricky Seals-Jones that the Giants are the worst TE defense in the league. The Browns are the 2^nd-worst. Shaheen was inactive last week with a chest injury, but he was starting to show a nice rapport with Mitch Trubisky prior to that. You’ll need to monitor his health situation and make sure he plays this Sunday, but Shaheen is a great DFS dart throw option just like RSJ, and he’s $300 cheaper on DraftKings than Seals-Jones.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you parse through your toughest lineup decisions this week. I’ll be back next week for a quick look at the rookies for the week 17 slate. Most leagues will be over with by then, but there are a few outliers that continue through the final week of the season, and DFS will of course continue. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. DeSean Jackson, Allen Hurns, Theo Riddick and Leonard Fournette’s health situations could all have a major impact on some of the players included above, so keep an eye on this throughout the week. If you have any specific questions, or want to yell at me about anything above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Every year, fantasy championships are won or lost by the teams that managed to hit on a break out player or...those that passed over that player. One of the more predictable paths to break out players is when a WR enters his third year. Players that reach this point have at least shown flashes of being good, otherwise they would have been cut already.

A couple of guys will be exempt from our class this year, notably Michael Thomas (NO) and Tyreek Hill (KC), both of whom finished in the top 8 fantasy WRs in 2017. They've already been breaking things - mainly records. Thomas is certain to be a stud again next year, going over 1100 yards receiving in each of his two seasons. Hill's situation may seem a little uncertain with new QB Patrick Mahomes, but the fact that Tyreek Hill is one of the most exciting players to watch since Devin Hester will not change.

So that leaves us with 12 guys that were all drafted ahead Tyreek Hill (165th overall). We'll look at their breakout potential based on past performance and their team's current situation. Some of these guys have already shown some really good things, and some of them are valuable picks that aren't working out. This is part 1, where we'll look at the first 4 guys on the list, all first rounders. Next time, we'll take a look at more third year WRs, as well as some breakouts in the past and why those worked.

Corey Coleman (CLE) - Coleman was the first WR taken in the 2016 draft - he was 15th overall. His biggest problem in his first two years, apart from being on the Browns, is that he was unable to stay on the field. He's played in just 19 games during his first two seasons. He's also, and this can't be stressed enough, on the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are certainly expected to be a team with a good amount of turmoil, following a 0-16 season. Since coach Hue Jackson is sticking around, he's likely to stick with his very first draft pick for at least another year. This should guarantee Coleman an opportunity to produce on the team, if only for Hue Jackson to show that he can at least get one thing right.

The sample size that Coleman does have is big enough to show us some encouraging stats. First of all, he's being targeted 7 times per game, never going below 4 in any single week. He's firmly the #2 WR on the team behind Josh Gordon, so this means that he's unlikely to draw the toughest coverages. I don't see his targets average changing much to start off 2018.

Going in to 2018, the biggest worry for Coleman will be what the offense is going to look like around him. New OC Todd Haley should breathe some life into a team that only put up 20+ points four times last season. The most important role is going to be quarterback for the Browns. Improved QB play will do a lot to up Coleman's catch percentage, which is just 42.7% for his career.

So can Coleman break out in 2018? I say that yes, he can, but there's a couple things that need to happen along the way. First and foremost, he needs a good QB. I have no idea how this will happen, but if they sign a decent free agent (ahem, Kirk Cousins), then this could be a huge upgrade. This could make Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman a combination that puts up 1000 yards each. It’s more likely that they will draft a top QB, so that will take more time to develop.

 Second, he needs to stay healthy, especially early in the season. Coleman has basically missed the first couple months each of the last two years, which is a terrible way to start a career. If he plays 16 games, he has the opportunity to develop a good rapport with the new starting QB. I really hope there's a new starting QB.

So hey, it's the offseason, we can dream a little bit. If the Browns do wind up signing Terrelle Pryor, I wouldn't worry too much. Pryor would be more of an insurance signing than someone who would start immediately. I give Coleman a 60% chance to break out as a WR 2 if they sign a good QB. If not, he's probably more like 30% - in short, he (and the Browns) need help to get there.

Will Fuller (HOU) - The 21st overall pick, Fuller looks like he has a great chance at big fantasy numbers in 2018. With Deshaun Watson at QB, Fuller is definitely in the best situation of any third year WR going in to next season. The Texans are a team on the rise, mostly because their offense looks to be explosive with Watson at the helm.

Fuller also benefits from the presence of DeAndre Hopkins, last year’s #1 fantasy WR. Hopkins will demand tons of attention from opposing defenses, and should draw a lot of top coverage and even double teams. This will allow Fuller to exploit his matchups in an attempt to match his blistering touchdown pace from last year.

How great was his touchdown pace? Well, in 2017, Fuller found the end zone one out of every four touches he had. On the season, he had 7 TDs on just 28 receptions. Unfortunately, he had only an average of 5 targets per game, but with a 56% catch percentage, he is able to still be productive. Having 15 yards per catch helps a lot too. This kind of production probably means that Fuller will not slip in under the radar in 2018 drafts.

Due to his higher profile, compared to the rest of the guys on this list, he will definitely not be a sneaky pick you can get later in the draft. If you want Fuller on your team, it’s going to cost you a mid-round pick, if not higher. My suggestion for guys like this is generally to wait and let others overspend on him, but to take him if the value is right.

So, can Will Fuller break out as a bigtime receiver in 2018? I say that the chances are high that he has a successful season, provided he can stay healthy. He’s missed 8 games over his first two seasons, so he’s more reliable than Corey Coleman. That being said, he has to play more than 75% of the time to reach the WR2 territory that we’re hoping for.

I give Fuller an 80% chance to break out this season. This mostly depends on Watson being his QB and performing somewhere near the insane level that he had last year (18 passing TDs in just 6 starts, are you kidding me?). So keep an eye on him during the offseason to see how well he’s working with Watson. There will likely be a lot of hype surrounding the Texans offense going in to next year, so that may artificially inflate the ADP of everyone involved, especially Fuller – since Hopkins and Watson are already at the top of their respective positions.

Josh Doctson (WAS) - Doctson was the 22nd overall pick in 2016 and the Redskins first round selection for that year. His rookie year was a dud, appearing in just 2 games and racking up 2 receptions. Going in to last season, he seemed like one of the hot sleeper picks. Unfortunately his hype was just talk and he really couldn't get anything going until later in the season.

Injuries have been a concern for Doctson, and an obvious theme in this list. Through two seasons, he's appeared in only 18 games, after a mysterious Achilles injury early in the 2016 season kept him mostly grounded for an entire year. The encouraging stat to take away here is that he did appear in all 16 games in 2017 and ended the season healthy.

The 2018 season looks to be set up for an overall upgrade for Doctson. His new QB, Alex Smith, was one of the best in the league last year, though he's unlikely to repeat those gaudy numbers. Regardless, Smith is a guy who has learned how to make the most of a speedy guy on the outside, and Doctson will be the #1 outside target on the 'Skins with Pryor likely to depart.

Doctson has a few stats in 2017 that make his outlook quite positive for the upcoming season. Once he was back into full rotation with the offense, he was targeted consistently - averaging 6.8 targets per game from week 9 to the end of the season. He also found the end zone 6 times. With a long score of 52 yards, and a short of just 1, it's clear that he's a threat to score from anywhere on the field.

Still, there's room for improvement with Doctson. Obviously, he needs to develop a rapport with his new QB, but he also needs to up his catch %. 44% is just not going to cut it when your QB is a check-down king. He's also only had one game over 61 yards in his career, and that one was just 81 yards. He's going to be a key member of a potent passing game, so he's due to break the century mark - or maybe he's just lucky that he scored 6 times last year.

I give Doctson a 60% chance to break out as a WR3 this year. His low yardage totals have me worried, although his 15.4 career yards per reception could be the key indicator that he's going to put up good numbers if he catches more balls. I would put his chances at becoming a WR2 at more like 35%. Doctson has a lot of tools to be a good player in the NFL. I don't know if I've seen indications that he can be great...yet.

Laquon Treadwell (MIN) - 2016's 23rd overall pick is firmly in the bust category through two seasons on the Minnesota Vikings. Treadwell was the 3rd WR taken in a row - clearly a run, and anyone who's played fantasy football for a while knows that it really sucks being at the end of a run at any position. Perhaps the writing was on the wall for Treadwell all along.

Amazingly, he's been healthy enough to have appeared (or at least been on the active roster) for 25 games - that's more than any other WRs that were drafted in the first round. Treadwell just can't find his way on to the field for enough snaps to ever make a difference. Injuries to other players haven't allowed him to just jump up the depth chart, and he was never really able to earn his way into getting targets. He has just 38 targets on his career, a measly 1.5 per game.

The emergence of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have basically ended it for Treadwell in Minnesota. They're likely to part ways with him either through trade or just cutting him. If he gets cut, he'll probably stick with the team through late August, until final cut-downs, but don't get your hopes up.

I give Treadwell a 5% chance of being fantasy relevant in 2018, and this is contingent on him finding a new team and getting a prominent role. He's had many chances to prove himself and just can't do it. This one's a no-brainer. You're not drafting Treadwell, and because of that, thankfully, I don't have to dive into the messy QB situation in Minnesota.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally Draft Day! In just a few hours, we'll be able to start seeing where the top prospects are actually going to start their pro careers. So...that means I still have a few more hours for some wishful thinking about landing spots. I tackled the QB and RB positions yesterday, and today I dive into what my favorite landing spots are for the WRs. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the receives to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. It's likely that there will be at least one team that drafts multiple wide receivers, but for this exercise, I have every receiver listed going somewhere different. Let's dive in...

(Player, college - landing spot)

Calvin Ridley, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Ridley didn't test well athletically at the combine, but he has the technical skill to get separation and was a consistent playmaker at Bama. In 2017 he pulled in nearly 31% of all of the receptions and more than 35% of the receiving yards put up by Alabama players. He also had a catch rate that was more than 10% higher than the average of the rest of the Bama receivers. The Panthers' offense helps create space for receivers since the defense always has to account for the chance that Cam runs the ball, and that will enhance Ridley's already impressive ability to get open. The Panthers lack a true number 1 receiver, and Ridley has the ability to become that guy if selected.

DJ Moore, Maryland - Dallas Cowboys: Moore is my favorite receiver in this class, his game pairs very well with Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys have a glaring need at WR after dumping Dez Bryant. While a lot of people are tempted to project a big, physical receiver here to replace what they lose in Dez, I think they'd be better served to draft a technician who wins in the short and intermediate areas of the field and after the catch. Moore is the best player in this draft who fits that description. Dak is best suited to a precision west coast passing game that can keep him in rhythm, and Dez just isn't a good fit for it. This is evidenced by the fact that Bryant had a catch rate below 53% in each of his two seasons with Prescott at QB. He had a catch rate above 60% in 4 out of 5 seasons with Romo under center (I don't count 2015 where Romo played just 3 games with Dez). DJ Moore would help the Cowboys' offense be more consistent than a player more similar to Dez would.

Courtland Sutton, SMU - Green Bay Packers: There has been a ton of hype around Sutton throughout draft season, but he's not as much of a finished product as that hype would have you believe. One thing he does have that not many of the receivers in this class do is true WR1 upside, and Green Bay playing with Aaron Rodgers is a place where I like his chances to make good on that. The Packers moved on from Jordy Nelson this offseason, and will undoubtedly be looking for a wide receiver within the first 2-3 rounds of this draft. Considering how valuable Jordy has been to the Packers over the years, they should look for the player with the most possible upside to replace him rather than a guy who will step in and contribute immediately. Sutton might be actually be both of those guys, but if he isn't ready to be a starter day 1, the Packers have a capable placeholder in Geronimo Allison.

James Washington, Oklahoma State - Arizona Cardinals: If you read my QB landing spots article, you already know I like Mason Rudolph to land in Arizona, so it's only fitting that I would like his favorite college receiver to join him. Washington has a ton of skill as a deep threat that can help offset the loss of John Brown to Baltimore, and if Rudolph lands there I'd expect Mike McCoy to install more of a vertical passing offense that Washington can thrive in. He's not just a one-trick pony though. James certainly has skills that will translate to the short and intermediate areas as well. He earned a black belt in karate when he was younger, which will help him with discipline, precision of movement, and understanding leverage. The Cardinals' receiving depth chart is very unsettled outside of Larry Fitzgerald, and I'd expect Washington to contribute immediately if he ends up in the desert.

Anthony Miller, Memphis - San Francisco 49ers: Miller is a bit of a tweener who could wind up in the slot or on the perimeter as a pro, but I think he would be best served starting his career in the slot. San Francisco is looking to upgrade their receiving unit now that they've found their franchise QB, and Miller is an explosive athlete who would be a good fit in their scheme. He would likely start in the slot with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin on the outside in 3-wide sets, but he could eventually develop into the replacement for soon-to-be 32 year-old Garcon in a couple years.

Deon Cain, Clemson - Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have been very active in free agency in attempts to upgrade their wide receiver group. They've already signed John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, but they also showed they aren't content yet by offering a multiple year deal to Dez Bryant (that he rejected). Brown has battled a sickle-cell condition that has limited his ability to stay on the field after a promising start to his career, and Willie Snead was suspended 3 games last year due to a DUI charge and struggled to get his footing after returning. It's not far-fetched that Cain could vault into the WR2 role early in his rookie year. Cain fits the size/speed prototype for a perimeter receiver, and has ability in the vertical passing game that would pair well with Flacco's strong arm.

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M - Miami Dolphins: This pairing just makes too much sense to avoid it. Kirk is probably the best wide receiver in this draft that projects as strictly a slot receiver in the NFL, and the Dolphins just traded away their slot receiver who was the focal point of their passing game. Kirk can fill the same role at nearly the same level for a fraction of what the Browns just paid Jarvis Landry. If he lands in Miami, Kirk has 75+ reception upside as a rookie.

Dante Pettis, Washington - New England Patriots: Pettis lacks elite size and athleticism for a perimeter receiver, but he does just about everything well. He has great skill as a route runner, great hands, and is an excellent jump-ball receiver downfield as well. He was one of the best punt returners in the country last year, and he uses those skills effectively to gain yards after the catch also. The Patriots always seem to do a good job of finding bargains at the skill positions, and Pettis would certainly qualify as a guy who is expected to be drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. The depth chart might be a little crowded early on with the addition of Jordan Matthews and the returns of Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell, but none of the roles are settled outside of Chris Hogan's. At the very least, Pettis would get on the field as a punt returner as a rookie, and would work his way up the depth chart from there. He could be a long-term starter.

DJ Chark, LSU - Philadelphia Eagles: Chark ran the best 40 time in this receiver class at 4.34, and can be used as a speedy deep threat while the rest of his game develops. The Eagles' offense takes plenty of deep shots, and traded starting WR Torrey Smith away this offseason. He wasn't heavily targeted last year, but there were some deep throws that went Smith's way. DJ would have a chance to compete with Mack Hollins and Mike Wallace for the role, but I expect Wallace to win that position battle. I like this landing spot more for Chark's development. Wallace signed for just one year, so if Chark is able to make strides in his game, he could step into the high upside starting role in year 2.

Michael Gallup, Colorado State - Indianapolis Colts: Gallup was prolific in his two years at Colorado State, averaging 88-1,345-10.5. He lacks the top end speed to develop into a number 1 receiver in the NFL, but he has the skills to develop into a solid WR2 as a possession receiver and would complement TY Hilton really well. He could quickly become one of Andrew Luck's favorite targets (assuming Luck ever returns).

Marcell Ateman, Oklahoma State - Denver Broncos: Ateman is a big receiver who tries to win with his physicality rather than technique. He's going to need to develop that technique a bit to succeed at the NFL level, and Denver would be a great place for him to sit and learn early on. The Broncos will need to get younger at WR soon with Demaryius at 30 and Manny Sanders at 31 years old, and DT would be a great mentor to help Ateman learn some of the nuance of the position. He has tantalizing upside if he's willing to put in the work to realize it.

Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame - Oakland Raiders: St. Brown has gotten plenty of hype due to his dimensions and athleticism, but he has a lot of work to do on his game. Jon Gruden is an old school coach who will love the measurables ESB offers. If he lands in Oakland, St. Brown should get some usage as a red zone threat early on. The Raiders currently don't have a receiver taller than 6'2" on the roster, and St. Brown is 6'5". There's also an opportunity to progress into a starting role in the next couple years if he's able to develop his game since Jordy Nelson is going to be 33 years old this season.

DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State - Tennessee Titans: A lot of draft twitter would be up in arms if this happens since they love Taywan Taylor, but Hamilton might be able to step in as the slot receiver right away in Tennessee. His game profiles similarly to that of Cooper Kupp, and the Titans' new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur held the same role with the Rams last year where Kupp was his slot receiver. The job wouldn't be handed to him though. Taywan was impressive when he got opportunities last year and Hamilton will have to beat him out to contribute much as a rookie. With that said, Hamilton has the talent to grow into the number two role opposite Corey Davis if the Titans choose not to re-sign Rishard Matthews at year's end.

Keke Coutee, Texas Tech - Buffalo Bills: I'm not sure that Coutee is necessarily a scheme fit in Buffalo but he has the ability to take the top off a defense, which is something that Buffalo's WR group could definitely use. He's skilled enough that he could develop into an outside receiver despite his diminuitive 5'10" height. Receiver is definitely a position of need for Buffalo after Zay Jones' offseason arrest and Jordan Matthews' departure to New England. Number 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin is also coming off a season-ending injury. Injecting an exciting playmaker like Coutee into the offense would certainly help.

Richie James, Middle Tennessee State - Seattle Seahawks: James is an undersized 'tweener' who could find a fit in the slot or as a perimeter receiver, but that's an archetype that the Seahawks know pretty well. Both Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin also fit that mold. Adding James to 3-wide sets could make the Seahawks receivers interchangable and allow them to be more unpredictable as an offense. James is a skilled receiver who is dangerous in the open field, and Russell Wilson's improvisational skills behind the line create holes in the secondary where a player like James can make splash plays. There is a little bit of Antonio Brown to his game, and he could eventually become the top pass catcher in Seattle if they choose not to pay Doug Baldwin again when his contract is up in a few years.

Jordan Lasley, UCLA - Chicago Bears: Lasley struggled with some drops and maturity issues in college, but he has the game to be the long-term WR2 opposite Allen Robinson if he has those issues under control. It's no guarantee that Kevin White will ever stay healthy or regain the form he had before the injuries, and the Bears need to make other plans. Lasley is adept in the vertical game, but also has some shorter routes that he can win with in his repertoire. New head coach Matt Nagy's offense was explosive in KC last year, and adding playmakers like Lasley who fit it has been a priority this offseason for the Bears.

Allen Lazard, Iowa State - Atlanta Falcons: Lazard projects as a big slot receiver at the NFL level (or possibly even tight end), and the Falcons' slot receiver Taylor Gabriel left for Chicago this offseason. Gabriel and Lazard are very different players, and Lazard wouldn't be a great fit in the scheme that Shanahan used to run in Atlanta, but after a down year offensively in 2017 I expect Sarkisian to change things up a bit this year. The biggest benefit Lazard would provide is that he would help draw coverage away from Julio Jones in the red zone. With his 6'5" frame, you have to account for him in close, which should give Jones more room to operate. Lazard might develop into a fantasy asset down the road, but he would immediately be a boost to Atlanta's red zone offense.

J'Mon Moore, Missouri - Washington Redskins: Moore has the ideal size to play on the outside, where Washington is still a little unsettled. Jamison Crowder should be locked into the slot role, but Josh Doctson still hasn't made good on his potential and free agent acquisition Paul Richardson needs to show that he can continue to build on what he did last year in Seatte. Moore lacks deep speed and will be at his best working in the short and intermediate areas of the field. That should pair well with new QB Alex Smith, who is normally too risk averse to take shots downfield. Smith made strides as a deep thrower last year, but I'm not convinced that will continue as he transitions to a new offense and loses the playmaking speed of Tyreek Hill.

Daurice Fountain, Northern Iowa - Minnesota Vikings: Fountain is a raw athlete making the jump from FCS to the NFL. He's going to have to refine his technique as a receiver to make an impact at the NFL level, and where better for him to do that than Minnesota where they already have two receivers who are very technically sound? If he is able to develop as a receiver, he should be able to push Kendall Wright to the bench in 3-wide sets by year two. If Laquon Treadwell makes strides this year it would be more of an uphill climb for Fountain, but I'll believe it when I see it with Treadwell.

Byron Pringle, Kansas State - New York Giants: The Giants have a hole at WR for their 3-wide sets with Brandon Marshall being released, and I'm not sure Roger Lewis is the guy to fill it. Pringle is old for a prospect and had trouble with the law when he was younger, but he's had 4 or 5 years on the straight and narrow since. He runs crisp routes, has dynamic ability with the ball in his hands, and has good athleticism for an NFL WR. He also can be had with a day 3 pick, which will allow the Giants to fill some other holes before picking him.

That's all I've got for the wide receivers. There are so many players so close in skill level in this class that this was easily the toughest position to match players to teams. There is bound to be a lot of disagreement out there, so if you want to shout your disagreements at me feel free to reach out on twitter to do so (@Shawn_Foss). Also, go back and check out the QB and RB landing spot articles if you haven't already done so, and keep an eye out for the TE article later today. Enjoy the draft!