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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

15 Passing TD's

Through 6 games, Texans rookie and frequent source of material for this column, Deshaun Watson has thrown 15 passing touchdowns, not to mention the two he's gotten via rushing. This total matches the 2016 Houston Texans entire season. Having the exact same receiving core makes this even more impressive, though you could argue that there are fewer weapons this season, with all their TE's injured. Watson has been beyond impressive and is set to crush all the rookie passing records and turn in the best rookie QB season ever, passing guys like Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Dan Marino. This hype train could roll all the way to Canton.

3 Points or Less

The San Francisco 49ers have lost their last 5 games by 3 points or less, a feat that is so rare it makes you think they should play the lottery, or perhaps, whatever is the opposite of the lottery. Yesterday even saw the benching of Brian Hoyer, destroyer of his own teams, for C.J. Beathard. Beathard, of course, is the grandson of Bobby Beathard, former NFL GM. Why the team calling the game had to announce this every 5 minutes is beyond me, but clearly it's important and must be repeated as often as possible. C.J. Beathard will soon be known as the guy who gets benched for whoever the 49ers sign next season (Kirk Cousins, anybody?).

25.40 Fantasy Points

No more old man jokes for the Purple Jesus (just blasphemous ones, please). Adrian Peterson was his old self, racking up 134 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs on Sunday. Who needs to catch the ball when you have Larry Fitzgerald doing all that for you. Peterson averaged 5.2 yards per carry and was explosive from the very start of the game, putting up more yards on the opening drive than the Cardinals averaged all season. The 160 yards the Cardinals got on the ground yesterday is only 99 short of their season total going into that game. Did Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson just become best friends?

25+ Fantasy Points

Move over Quarterbacks, the Running Backs are once again dominating the fantasy football scoreboard. Sure, Kirk Cousins led the way with 28.8, but the next 4 highest scoring players were RB's, and some familiar high draft picks as well. Melvin Gordon, Adrian Peterson, Le'Veon Bell and Mark Ingram all scored at least 25 points AND each had at least 25 carries. Maybe the talent available at this position is dictating a return to the bell cow back. I for one, welcome the return of the workhorse RB to fantasy football. There were 11 RB's that saw at least 20 touches in Week 6, led by Jordan Howard's 36 carries and 1 reception. As we head into fall and bad weather football, I expect to see even more work for running backs.

2.77 Inches per Carry

Thursday night was a rough one for the Carolina Panthers, and their running backs in particular. With 13 total carries, Christian McCaffrey, Fozzy Whittaker and Jonathan Stewart netted only 1 yard, good for an average of 2.77 inches per carry. A less classy organization might make lewd jokes about proudly carrying 2.77 inches, or letting the running game grow and not necessarily letting it show, but not us. No sir, I don't care what kind of flaccid running game you bring to Thursday night football, we won't make you the butt of the joke at the end of an article. Not us here at drinkfive, we have way more class than that. Or not. Penis.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 9 was a tough one for us here. A lot of outlooks changed after the report posted. Most notably, Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending leg injury. That threw a wrench into the expectations for Marlon Mack and D’Onta Foreman along with Watson’s. Leonard Fournette was suspended for breaking team rules right before their game with the Bengals, likely sending people scrambling for a running back. Hopefully you were able to find an adequate replacement. Hopefully things go a little more according to plan this week. The number of byes in week 10 drops to 4 (KC, PHI, OAK, BAL), so you shouldn’t be quite as hard pressed to fill gaps as the last two weeks.  With the Chiefs and Eagles on bye, we won’t get to dive into what’s wrong with Kareem Hunt or talk up Corey Clement’s garbage time bonanza, but we will talk about all of the fantasy relevant rookies who are playing this week. Let’s jump in and take a look at the week 10 slate…

Rookies to Start:

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): The Chargers have allowed 8 running backs to finish as a weekly top-20 back, and Fournette has landed in the top 14 backs in all 6 weeks he’s played (top-10 4 times). As long as he doesn’t suddenly get benched on Sunday again, he should be a safe RB1 again. The Chargers allow the 2nd-most rushing yards per game. Fournette will cost a bundle in DFS games, but he may be worth the price. He should be a chalk play in cash games.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): McCaffrey finally saw a spike in his rushing usage last week. It only took two early Jonathan Stewart fumbles to get us here, but McCaffrey handled a season-high 15 rushing attempts, and he actually had success, picking up 66 yards and a score (the score probably should’ve been ruled a pass play, but I digress). The Panthers said they traded Kelvin Benjamin to open things up for the running game, and for at least one week, it worked. McCaffrey’s receiving floor has already proven solid this year with at least 4 catches and 28 receiving yards in every single game so far. The rushing usage could be the key to unlocking his ceiling if it continues. The Dolphins aren’t a great matchup for him, but CMC has been at least a flex play every week. I’d look for him to be a safe RB2 in all formats this week, with higher upside in PPR.

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 10: @Buf.): Kamara put on a show last weekend with 31.2 PPR points, good enough to be the overall RB1 for the week. His point total has gone up each week since the Saints traded away Adrian Peterson. The matchup gets a little tougher this week, but the Bills have had some struggles vs. RBs lately. They allowed only one team’s RBs to top 20 PPR points in the first 6 games of the year, but have allowed 35 or more to the position in each of the last 2. Kamara should be an easy RB2 again this week. His price tag in DFS has finally caught up with his production a bit, but he should still be a strong option there as well.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 10: @SF): Engram has 29 targets in the 3 games since Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall were hurt, and he’s posted 15-212-3 with at least 60 yards and a score in each game. The return of Sterling Shepard last week didn’t cut into his volume at all, as he was targeted 10 times in week 9. The 49ers do limit TE production, allowing the 6th-fewest points per game to the position, but Engram is a featured part of this offense. The buckets of volume he should continue to see make him a top-3 TE option this week with Ertz & Kelce on byes.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Mixon should continue to return much the same value we’ve seen over the past several weeks. He’s scored between 8 and 14 points in PPR scoring each and every week since Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator. That range is uninspiring, but it can be usable. The Bengals’ shoddy o-line play has severely limited Mixon’s upside. The Titans do have a decent run defense, ranking 12^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but Mixon should still get his typical volume. That’ll keep him in play as a floor RB2/flex option as usual.

RB Aaron Jones, GB (Wk. 10: @Chi.): I actually like Jones this week, but it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in him after Monday night. Ty Montgomery has re-appeared and Head Coach Mike McCarthy has said TyMo will handle passing downs going forward. Against the Bears, I do like the Packers’ chances of being able to run on early downs, which would work in Jones’s favor. The Bears are actually a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which is incredible. That would make you think game script will favor Montgomery, but I’m not convinced. The Bears do allow the 11^th-most RB points per game. If Green Bay is able to keep the game tight or play with a lead, Jones should be able to return solid value as a flex option. If they play from behind, I’d be less optimistic. Go with your gut on how you think this game will go. If I had to guess, I like Jones to outscore Montgomery.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 10: vs. Pit.): Mack is in play again this week with the Colts a 10-point underdog at home. They lucked into facing Tom Savage last week, and were able to play in a positive game script for once, which undoubtedly hurt Mack’s output. I’d expect him to get a healthier dose of passing game work in this one. I’m not bullish on Mack’s prospects of finding the end zone though. The Steelers haven’t allowed a running back receiving score all year, and the Colts have run the ball from inside the 5-yard line just 4 times all year, and 3 of them were Robert Turbin carries. If you’re desperate for a fill-in back with some upside this week, Mack fits the bill, but it’s likely there are better plays available.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 10: @Ind.): JuJu gets a great matchup this week and is coming off his best game of the year before last week’s bye, but I’m not ready to go all-in on JJSS this week. As mentioned above, the Steelers are a 10-point road favorite and may not need to throw a lot as the game goes on. They also will have Martavis Bryant back, and he could get some squeaky wheel treatment after complaining about his role in the offense (I know he got suspended for those complaints, but they still may try to get him more involved). The Colts will also be without Vontae Davis, which means Antonio Brown should be able to do anything he wants to against this secondary. The Colts allow the 7th-most WR points per game and have allowed the most 20+ yard completions in the league. The matchup is ripe for JuJu to have a big day, but there are plenty of concerns as to just how much volume he’s going to see. He’s a WR3 option this week with some boom-or-bust to him.

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): The Texans have really struggled to slow down opposing WRs in the two games since their bye, coughing up an absurd 105 PPR points to the position total in those games. The Rams’ passing attack looked great against the Giants last week, and it may be Kupp’s turn to score a TD this week after Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins combined for 3 TDs last Sunday. Per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld, 27.7% of Kupp’s targets have come in the red zone, the highest percentage of any WR in the league. Volume could be a problem with the Rams a 12-point favorite, but if Kupp finds the end zone he should return decent value as a flex or WR3.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. GB): As I mentioned above for Aaron Jones, the Bears are stunningly favored to beat the Packers. If the game goes the way Vegas expects it to, the Bears should go back to the run-heavy game plan they’d been employing prior to the Saints game. Trubisky threw 32 pass attempts against New Orleans in that game. It was the most he’s thrown in a game. 24 teams average more attempts than that per game. The Pack can be thrown on, but I don’t expect Trubisky to throw enough to be even a usable QB2.

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 10: @Det.): As long as the Browns continue to let Kizer start, there will be some sneaky spots to use him once Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon are into the lineup. This week is not one of them. The Lions have allowed just one top-12 QB all year, and have kept 5 QBs out of the top-20. That list includes Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning and Carson Palmer. The Lions are currently tied for 3^rd in the NFL in takeaways, and no QB has turned the ball over more than Kizer. This is a great spot to play the Detroit defense.

RB RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 10: @TB): The Bucs have given up 7 running back scores in the past 4 games, and McGuire did just handle 14 touches last Thursday, but he’s still stuck behind Forte and Powell. As bad as the Bucs have been, it’s still hard to imagine the Jets blowing them out in Tampa by enough that McGuire gets extended run. Forte was held out of practice Wednesday, so monitor the situation as the week goes on. It’s likely just a precautionary measure, but McGuire would have pretty decent upside this week if Forte is out.

RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): Despite the 49ers having limited options on offense thanks to a litany of injuries (Kittle, Garcon, Trent Taylor), I wouldn’t expect big things from Breida this week. He’s been the clear second fiddle to Hyde for several weeks now, and I’d expect SF to lean on Hyde again this week. He was targeted an absurd 11 times in the loss to Arizona last weekend. Breida will continue to handle the scraps, but that isn’t enough to make him an intriguing option this week.

RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 10: @LAR): The Texans’ offense with Tom Savage at the helm just doesn’t generate enough production to consider playing the number 2 running back, even in a plus matchup like this one.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Zay Jones was written off earlier this year (by me and others) due to historic inefficiency, but he appears to have gotten his rookie season back on track in the last 2 weeks. He had his best game as a pro last Thursday with a 6-53-1 line. Unfortunately he got dinged up in that game. Jones was able to play much of the 2^nd half last week after being injured, so there is a real chance he plays this week, but he’s not practicing as of Wednesday. If he does play, his volume will likely take a big hit with Kelvin Benjamin getting up to speed and Charles Clay likely returning. I’d shy away even if Zay is a go.

WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): It was nice to see Samuel get more involved in the passing game with Kelvin Benjamin gone. The 3 catches, 23 yards and 5 targets were all season-highs (5 targets tied his season-high), and he tacked on a 14-yard rush as well. I’d expect his role to continue to grow moving forward, but I don’t like his prospects for this week. Both the Panthers and Dolphins like to slow the game down, and that will limit the total number of plays and overall passing volume. The Dolphins have allowed the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, and have faced the 2^nd-fewest overall pass attempts against. That limited volume curtails the upside that Samuel has this week. He’s still just the 3^rd option in the passing game at best. I’d expect somewhere around 25 passing attempts for Cam, and Funchess and CMC are averaging a combined 16 targets per game

WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Westbrook’s return from IR was delayed last week, and may be again. The Jaguars have said they aren’t sure if he’ll be activated this week. If he is, he should push Keelan Cole to the bench in 3WR sets. Even if Westbrook suits up, I’d be hard-pressed to trot him out there in any formats this week. Jacksonville should have their way with the Chargers on the ground, and the team has averaged just 178 passing yards per game when Fournette is in the lineup. Westbrook could be an interesting punt option in DFS tournaments if Marqise Lee sits, but there won’t be a ton of passing volume for the Jaguars in this one.

WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 10: @Jax): The Jaguars erase wide receivers. They allow the fewest points per game to the position in the league, and the Chargers have averaged 8 completions per game to WRs in their past 4 contests. I’m not even sure I trust Keenan Allen this week, let alone Williams.

WR Josh Malone, CIN (Wk. 10: @Ten.): I mention Malone because he now has 7 targets in the last two weeks, and Cincy does face a weak pass defense on Sunday. You still should avoid him. The Bengals have been a low-volume attack and I’d look for them to try and spark AJ Green in this one.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Even if Golladay finally returns to the lineup for Detroit, Stafford seems to have found a great rhythm with Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, and Kenny would still split snaps with TJ Jones for the WR3 spot. The Lions are also a 12-point favorite, so they should stray a little from their typically pass-heavy play calling. There is more risk than upside for Golladay this week.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 10: @Det.): The Lions have allowed a league-low 26 catches to opposing TEs on the year, and Njoku continues to split time with Seth DeValve. Until that changes, he’ll continue to be a low-upside TD dart throw. You typically don’t want to play a TD dart throw option in a game where the team’s implied total is only about 15 and a half points.

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): With Jameis sidelined, OJ’s already limited fantasy prospects get even more limited. You could argue Howard could get more usage as a receiver with Mike Evans out, but there’s a different guy I expect to pick up that slack that I’ll get to in a moment. I’d avoid Howard this week.

TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Everett is always capable of putting up a long catch and the Texans are allowing the 6^th-most TE points per game, but you’d have to be pretty desperate to trot out Everett. He played just 15 offensive snaps last week compared to 50 for teammate Tyler Higbee.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): As long as he gets the start, Beathard is in play as a streamer in 2QB leagues. Kyle Shanahan left the door open for Jimmy Garoppolo to start with comments to the media on Wednesday, but I’d expect it to be CJ. There’s no reason to rush Jimmy with the season already lost and a bye following this game. There are some concerns for Beathard, as the Niners are without George Kittle, Pierre Garcon, and Trent Taylor. Instead, his targets will be Hyde, Garrett Celek, Marquise Goodwin, and Aldrick Robinson. The matchup is still a pretty good one. The Giants have allowed 3 passing scores in 4 of their past 5 games, and allowed over 250 passing yards in all 5. Beathard is likely to put up less than the 23.7 points per game the Giants have allowed to QBs in that stretch, but there is still some upside to be had.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. GB): It’ll be tough to trust Cohen in season-long lineups after he handled just 6 touches in the past 2 games combined, but the Bears know they need to get him more involved. The Packers rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs, and Cohen is their most explosive pass catcher out of the backfield. He should be an intriguing punt options for DFS tournaments, but is probably a little too volatile to use anywhere else.

RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 10: @SF): While it appears Orleans Darkwa has taken over the lead back role for the G-Men, Gallman hasn’t completely disappeared. He handled 9 carries last week, and this week the Giants face a 49ers team that has allowed the most rushing yards per game and 2^nd-most rushing TDs in the league. Darkwa is a huge upside play this week, but I think some of the benefits spill over to Gallman. He did out-snap Darkwa in week 7 before the bye.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been excellent at limiting WRs (they allow the 4^th-fewest points per game to the position), but they struggled badly to contain Marqise Lee last Sunday. Davis looked healthy and played 75% of the offensive snaps. Head Coach Mike Mularkey said that his snap count is going to increase moving forward. With DeMarco Murray ailing, the Titans could lean on the pass a bit more this week, and Davis should be basically a full-time player. There are worse options you could go to if you need a fill-in WR. Davis was targeted 5 times last Sunday, and I’d expect at least that number again.

WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): With Mike Evans suspended for this game, Godwin should move into a starting role. He’ll have Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball, which doesn’t seem ideal, but Godwin likely catches a lot of balls from Fitz in practice since both are on the 2^nd team. I’d also expect the Jets’ top corner Mo Claiborne to be contending more with DeSean Jackson than Godwin. The Jets allow the 9^th-most points per game to WRs, and Godwin has been impressive whenever he’s been given a chance. He’s in a great spot and costs the minimum in DraftKings.

WR ArDarius Stewart, NYJ (Wk. 10: @TB): Stewart has been irrelevant so far this year, but his role is worth monitoring this week with Jeremy Kerley suspended for the next 4 games. Stewart looked poised to be the starting slot WR before Kerley was cut by the 49ers. Stewart is probably unlikely to make a fantasy impact in these 4 weeks with the Jets favoring Kearse, ASJ and Robby Anderson, but the Bucs do allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Don’t be shocked if Stewart has a decent game out of nowhere.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some lineup decisions wherever you have rookies. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to check before kickoff that there aren’t any surprise inactives like Fournette last week. If you have any questions or want to rant at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

39:31 TD to INT Ratio

So far this week, QB play has really been sloppy compared to the sharper, more efficient play that we saw the last few weeks. Of course, you can't blame all of these interceptions on QBs, some of this is the fault of awful play calling in the KC-NYG game. In that game, both Shane Vereen and Travis Kelce threw interceptions on plays that can only leave you scratching your head. Elsewhere in the league, there were 5 QBs that were responsible for at least 4 turnovers each. Among them, the Bills starter Nathan Peterman stands out, having thrown 5 interceptions in the first half, resulting in his benching and the second QB switch in as many weeks for Buffalo.  By contrast, Tyrod Taylor has 3 picks all season. How is there even a QB controversy in Buffalo?

32.40 Fantasy Points

Many of us were staring at a huge number all weekend after Antonio Brown had 10 receptions for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns. Hopefully, you were on the good end of this performance, which was the second highest total for a WR all season, just behind Amari Cooper's 33 points in Week 7, also on a Thursday night. The Steelers put up 40 points against the Titans and it's finally looking like their offense may be starting to roll in the ways that were predicted early in the season. With 3 of their next 4 games at home, the Steelers can get their offense back on track, as they are clearly better at home than on the road. They will also have a chance to really secure home field advantage in the playoffs since the Patriots visit Heinz field in Week 15.

54-34 Chargers vs AFC West

Going in to Sunday, the tied-for-last-place Chargers were the victims of many close losses early in the season, so being able to pull Philip Rivers in the 4th quarter must have been a great relief. They also outscored their entire division by 20 points, springing them into second place in a now very winnable AFC West. The Chiefs haven't been able to do much winning lately, and the Broncos and Raiders both seem very lost at this point in the season. The Chargers are one of only two teams in the league that are under .500, yet have more points scored for them than against. A wildcard spot may be tough to reach, but if the Chiefs keep losing (even Andy Reid's awesome record after a bye couldn't save them yesterday), the Chargers just might wind up taking this division. Pretty good for a team that almost nobody cares about anymore.

0% Owned in Yahoo Leagues

Two of the top three TEs in Week 11 are owned in 0% of yahoo leagues. Allow me to introduce you to Ricky Seals-Jones of Arizona and Adam Shaheen of Chicago. Seals-Jones had zero points going into this game with only 1 target on the year. With Blaine Gabbert starting, he caught two touchdowns, which HELPS NO ONE! At least Gabbert got one to Larry Fitzgerald as well - side note: congrats to Larry on his contract extension, I hope we get to see him play for many years to come. Anyways, back to the ridiculous situation that TEs are in this season. Who is the other guy in the top 3, you may ask? Well that's O.J. Howard, who is owned in a whopping 22% of Yahoo leagues. Of the top 10 tight ends this week, only 2 of them are owned in over 45% of leagues. This will make for some waiver wire fun towards the end of the fantasy regular season.

4 D/STs Over 20 Points

With such a sloppy week on offense, it's only logical that the defenses should clean up, and some of the bigger names this season did just that. It's the first time since week 6 that we had that many teams break the 20 point mark. Three of the four teams that hit that total this week, The Ravens, Jaguars and Eagles, all hit that back in Week One as well. All three teams also have at least 3-20 point games (the Ravens have 4 of them). The Ravens have really needed their defense, too. They have three shutouts on the season, but just 5 victories. Even with a feast-or-famine defense, I think it's worth keeping them around for the next couple of weeks. When your defense can put up 20 points for you, good things are going to happen to your fantasy team.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report and Happy Turkey Day! Things get a little wild this week with 3 Thursday games, so make sure to get your lineups set ahead of time. The Thanksgiving holiday also brings us the end of the bye weeks. It’ll be full 16 game slates from here on out, so some of those fringe guys you have been willing to try in recent weeks should be shelved for safer options. Oddly enough, in a lot of cases the safer options right now are rookies, especially at the running back position. 4 of the top-12 running backs and 6 of the top-25 in PPR scoring are rookies. Compare that with 2016: only 2 of the top-25 backs were rookies (Zeke and Jordan Howard) and you had to go all the way to RB43 to find the 6th-best rookie contributor. Just imagine how good this rookie crop would be if Dalvin Cook had stayed healthy. There hasn’t been as much success at the other positions, but that may change with Corey Davis’s schedule opening up, a possible TE changing of the guard in Tampa, and a certain turnover-prone QB getting some of his weapons back in Cleveland. Let’s jump in and see what to expect for week 12…

Rookies to Start:

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 12: vs. Buf.): With each passing week, it’s getting harder and harder to rely on Hunt as an RB1. He has zero TDs since week 3, and 3 straight games with fewer than 100 scrimmage yards after hitting that mark in each of his first 7 games. The Bills are an ideal get-right spot for him. Buffalo has coughed up 212.7 rushing yards per game and 11 rushing TDs in the 3 games since they dealt Marcell Dareus, and Hunt has accounted for nearly three-quarters of the Chiefs rushing yards on the year (73.7%). This is a chance for Hunt to find his ceiling again. A 20-point PPR day could be in the offing.

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 12: @LAR): You already know that Kamara is pretty much an auto-start at this point. The Rams are improving against opposing running backs and have held 3 of their last 4 opponents below 17 PPR points (the best RB defense in the league, Houston, allows 17.2 points per game), but the Rams played from ahead in most of those games and still have allowed the 4^th-most running back points on the year. You can’t bet against Kamara’s hot streak here. He’s been an RB1 for 5 straight weeks, and THE RB1 in 2 of the past 3. He’s well worth the cost in DFS formats and a locked in RB1 again.

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ari.): Fournette got back on track with 111 rushing yards last Sunday against the Browns. He’s still battling an ankle injury, but he played 67% of the offensive snaps and produced a solid fantasy day. The Cardinals have been decent at stopping the ground game, ranking 9^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but Fournette’s volume has kept him pretty much matchup-proof, and Arizona is coming off their worst game against RBs all year. I’d prefer Kamara or Hunt as a top flight option in DFS, but LF should be locked in to season-long lineups as usual.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 12: @NYJ): The Jets defense has been pretty formidable against running backs this year, holding opposing backs to the 10^th-fewest PPR points per game and ranking 13^th in run defense DVOA, but I’m not betting against McCaffrey. He’s posted back-to-back top-6 weeks since the Kelvin Benjamin trade. He’s more of an RB2 this week than RB1 given the matchup, but with KB gone he’s finally finding his ceiling, and it isn’t something you want to leave on the bench.

RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): I’d be a little nervous if I’m relying on Perine as an RB1 this week but Chris Thompson suffered a season-ending injury, Perine is coming off a breakout game, and the Giants have allowed the 3^rd-most rushing yards in the league. Washington also enters the game as a touchdown favorite, so game script should work in Perine’s favor as well. I don’t know if he’ll repeat the performance he had last week, but Samaje should be a solid RB2 based on volume and matchup. He’s a better option in non-PPR formats since he provides almost no receiving production.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 12: vs. GB): Make sure the hamstring isn’t a problem before pulling the trigger here. JuJu has averaged 8.3 targets per game in the past 3 contests, and Green Bay has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game. There is probably some worry after Antonio Brown exploded Thursday night and JJSS scored in single-digits, but the Packers have let 2 WRs finish in the top-24 in the same game 4 times (nearly 5, but Josh Bellamy of the Bears was the WR26 against them). Make sure to keep an eye on the hamstring updates. JuJu isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and the Steelers play Sunday night. Make sure you have a fallback option if he can’t play (Martavis, Bruce Ellington and Mike Wallace are all options that may be available on your waiver wire), but if he’s able to go he should be a borderline WR2.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 12: @Ind.): I am here for the Corey Davis breakout game this week. The snaps and targets have been there for Davis since he returned from his hamstring injury, and now he gets a matchup that will allow him to really get going. The Colts rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game. It would be a ballsy move to thrust Davis into lineups this week given how he’s produced so far, but I love Davis as a WR3 this week. He could drastically outplay his $4,900 price tag in DraftKings this week.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 12: @Was.): Don’t be scared off by his clunker last week. The wind was howling, and he was facing a tough matchup. Remember that Engram put up a goose egg in week 5 and then followed it with 4 straight top-5 performances before last Sunday’s dud. EE draws Washington this week, a defense much more giving to opposing TEs than the Chiefs. Washington has allowed the most yards per game to opposing TEs and the 4th-most fantasy points per game to them. The Chiefs have allowed the 3^rd-fewest TE points. Engram is a strong bet to get back on track on Thursday night.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Mixon has continued to show a lack of a ceiling all year in this Bengals’ offense. He hasn’t reached 14 PPR points in any game this year, and he has the fewest yards per carry of any back with at least 55 carries on the year (2.9). He’ll need receiving usage to find his floor this week, as the Browns actually rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. Gio Bernard is still stealing some of the passing down work. The Bengals are a heavy favorite, so game script could boost his volume, but he’s looking like no more than a flex play in this one.

RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 12: @Pit.): Williams had a usable day in his first start, finishing as the RB20 in a blowout loss to Baltimore on Sunday. He should see enough volume to push for fantasy viability again this week since the biggest threat to his carries, Devante Mays, fumbled twice in two attempts Sunday. If Ty Montgomery manages to return this week, Williams is off the table, but TyMo isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. The Steelers’ run defense has been stingy and ranks 4^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game so far. Game script should also work against Williams with the Steelers a 14-point favorite. If he continues to see some receiving work, there should still be enough volume for Jamaal to be in play as a flex option in deeper leagues, but there isn’t a ton of upside.

RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): If Forte is out again, and it appears he will be, Elijah is worth some consideration as a flex option. Carolina is a tough matchup, allowing the 3^rd fewest rushing yards and 2^nd-fewest rushing TDs in the league, so McGuire will need some receiving usage to show his value. The Jets will likely be playing from behind and McGuire saw 7 targets last week to Bilal Powell’s 2 with the Jets in comeback mode against Tampa. Elijah also played more snaps than Powell in that game. If that usage continues, McGuire could surprise this week in deeper PPR leagues.

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. NO): At this point you pretty much know what you’re getting with Kupp. He’s probably overdue for a TD but his volume has been steady with 7+ targets in 3 of the last 4 games. Robert Woods’s absence should also give his target number a boost. The Saints have been decent defensively, but Kupp’s volume makes him a safe floor WR3… I mean, what are they going to do, start featuring Sammy Watkins? Sammy Watkins owners know the answer to that question.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 12: @KC): This is a good spot for Zay this week with Tyrod re-inserted at QB. Jones has finally started to play at a solid level in the past few weeks, and with KB expected out in this one Tyrod should lean on Zay in the passing game. Charles Clay hasn’t looked right since returning from injury a couple weeks ago and Jordan Matthews will likely play limited snaps in his first game back. The Chiefs allow the 2^nd-most points per game to opposing WRs, and Zay has been averaging 7 targets a game in his last 4 played. He should be a PPR WR4 this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 12: @Phi.): The Eagles’ defense has been playing inspired football of late. They haven’t exactly been facing elite offenses (49ers, Broncos, Cowboys without Tyron Smith & Zeke), but the Bears and Mitch Trubisky don’t qualify as one either. Chicago ranks 26^th in offensive yards per game and 27^th in points per game. The Eagles have allowed 17.8 fantasy points to the opposing QBs in total in their past 3 contests. Mitch will be hard pressed to be a QB2 this week.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Cohen’s usage bounced back in a big way against Detroit on Sunday, but Philly allows the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game and Benny Cunningham is still mixing in during the 2-minute drill . You could try and plug Cohen in as your flex if you’re feeling lucky, but I’d like to see his usage repeat before I start considering him for the lineup again.

RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): You could throw CC in as a DFS tournament dart throw if you want to, but at some point the garbage time bonanza is going to dry up. Clement’s usage hasn’t been reliable enough to put him in season-long lineups with fantasy playoff spots at stake. He’s topped 50 rushing yards in 3 straight games and scored 4 TDs in the past 2, but he’s done so on just 28 carries and 1 reception in those 3 games, most with the games long decided. There is a legitimate chance that the script repeats itself for Clement with Philly a 2-touchdown favorite, but at some point the Eagles are going to have a letdown game. It’s hard to bank on a 4^th consecutive blowout. Even if it is a blowout, you’d still need a TD from Clement for him to return real value.

RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Breida posted a productive game against the Giants heading into the bye, but that was with the 49ers playing from out in front all day. I’d expect mostly Hyde this week with the Seahawks being a much tougher opponent. Seattle ranks 11^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. This isn’t a matchup to target with a rotational back like Breida.

RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 12: @Was.): Gallman has just 10 touches in the last 2 games, and with Darkwa playing well there’s no reason to expect that number to go up on Thanksgiving.

WR Keelan Cole, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ari.): With the return of Dede Westbrook, Cole’s role will diminish quite a bit over the next couple weeks. I’d expect Westbrook and Marqise Lee to be on the field in most 2-wide sets, and Cole in the slot when they go to 3 WRs. Few teams employ fewer 3-WR formations than Jacksonville. The matchup isn’t terrible with the Cardinals allowing the 9^th-most WR points per game, but I don’t expect Cole to find enough volume for a useful day.

WR Alex Erickson, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Don’t take his TD in week 11 to mean anything, and don’t read into the matchup this week with the lowly Browns. Erickson isn’t usable in fantasy at the moment, nor are his rookie teammates John Ross and Josh Malone.

WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): This matchup looks a lot better than it did a couple weeks ago, but even if Taylor is able to play he managed to post just 2 catches for 6 yards in the first meeting with Seattle, and his role in the offense already kept him away from Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman’s coverage. He’s scored 10+ PPR points just once on the year. If Taylor is out again, fellow rookie Kendrick Bourne will continue to see increased playing time, but he’s also not worth consideration as he battles Louis Murphy for WR3 snaps.

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 12: @Atl.): OJ made good on my ‘sleeper’ call last week with a 3-52-1 line while playing 70% of the snaps, but I’m not ready to double-down on him this week. It does appear that he’s slightly edged out Cam Brate for the lead TE spot, but they still share enough work that it hurts the fantasy upside for both guys. Howard out-targeted Brate 4-3 in week 11. While those few targets are enough to be productive in a great matchup like the one they faced last week, Atlanta isn’t a great matchup. The Falcons are right in the middle of the pack vs. TEs, allowing the 16^th-most TE points per game.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): I’d like Kittle as a sleeper if I were sure he’s healthy, but I’m not. TE gets pretty ugly after the top handful of options and the Seahawks have given up 11.9 or more PPR points to the position in 7 of their past 8 games. 10 PPR points is basically a borderline TE1 this year. With Kittle banged up though, I’d look elsewhere for TE streamers.

TE Adam Shaheen, CHI (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Shaheen has finally become part of the Bears’ game plan with injuries to Zach Miller and Dion Sims, but the Eagles have allowed 10+ points to the opposing TEs just 3 times all year, and only once in the last 6 games. This isn’t a good spot for Shaheen.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): With Corey Coleman back, Njoku was limited to just one target last weekend. It’s now been 5 games since Njoku’s last TD and 3 games since he reached 20 receiving yards. ‘Because he’s due’ isn’t a good reason to use him in lineups.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): The 49ers have announced that Beathard will get another start this week, and there actually is some upside in what is typically a demoralizing matchup. Seattle still has some defensive firepower to be reckoned with, but losing Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor is a huge blow to their secondary. Seattle is a 7-point favorite this week, so the 49ers should have to throw plenty, and CJ’s found some success of late with 17.4 and 25 fantasy points in his last 2 starts respectively. If you are playing a streamer in a 2-QB league, I like Beathard better than a lot of the other options at the bottom of the QB barrel.

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Cincinnati has been one of the better QB defenses in the league this year, allowing the 11^th fewest QB points per game, but they have shown some cracks of late. They’ve allowed at least 14.6 points to the opposing QB in each of the 5 games since their bye week, and all 5 QBs faced finished between the QB10 and QB17 for the week. That range might not be exciting, but it’s usable in 2-QB formats. It’ll be easy to point to Kizer’s 4 turnovers and 5.4 fantasy points last week, and his poor performance in the first meeting with Cincy and write him off as an option, but he actually posted the 5^th-highest point total any QB has against Jacksonville. He also scored 38 points combined in the two games before that against pretty formidable QB defenses (DET & MIN). The Bengals are one of 5 teams that have allowed 200 QB rushing yards on the year, so Kizer should create some extra points with his legs. He showed an immediate connection with Corey Coleman last week, and gets Josh Gordon back in week 13. I think DeShone will surprise some people down the stretch. We’ve seen flashes of his skills at times, and he’s getting weapons to work with. Now he just has to cut down on the turnovers and play more consistent football. He’s a high-risk, high-reward streamer for 2-QB leagues this week.

RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 12: @Dal.): The Cowboys’ run defense has suffered whenever Sean Lee is out, and he will miss this game. Dallas has allowed 120+ rushing yards in all 3 games that Lee has missed, and another 120 in the final 3 quarters against Atlanta after Lee left with injury. They’ve given up 64 rushing yards per game with him in the lineup (not including that Atlanta game). The question with Ekeler will be his volume. He was effective on limited touches last week, but he didn’t play at all until the game was well in hand. Melvin Gordon should have a great game this week, but if Ekeler sees another 8-10 touches spelling him, he could post another flex-worthy game as well.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Mack is likely becoming a forgotten man amongst the crowded rookie RB crop. He failed to score even 5 PPR points in week 9 or 10, and then was on bye in week 11. People likely are forgetting that the Colts played mostly from ahead in those two games. In positive game scripts, they are going to rely more heavily on Frank Gore. Despite playing with leads in those games, Mack still played over 40% of the snaps in each and handled 8.5 touches per game. I expect his usage to go up if Indy plays from behind, and the Titans allow the 5^th-most RB catches and 4^th-most RB receiving yards in the league. Mack is an upside play for DFS tournaments and the deepest of PPR leagues.

WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ari.): As I mentioned above with Keelan Cole, the Cardinals allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and I expect Westbrook’s playing time to increase a bit this week. With Keelan Cole playing as the slot WR, that keeps Marqise Lee on the outside and will allow Patrick Peterson to cover him. That could open things up for Westbrook, who put up 3-35 on 6 targets last week. There’s upside for Westbrook to have a breakout game, and might reward you as a DFS punt option.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Minnesota’s top corner Xavier Rhodes is likely to spend most of the day covering Marvin Jones, and while Trae Waynes has improved of late, he’s still the guy to go after if you’re going to attack the Vikings on the outside. Golden Tate will be the Lions’ best WR play this week, but there’s room for Golladay to have a game as well. Kenny’s snap count tripled from 11 to 33 in his second game back, and there’s something about Lions’ Thanksgiving games that brings out the best in their QB. Matt Stafford has thrown for 330+ yards in 4 of the last five Turkey Day tilts he’s played in. While the one game he didn’t hit that mark was last year against these Vikings, I still like his chances at a better than expected day. If Golladay’s targets climb from the three he saw last week, he’s got some real upside as a boom-or-bust WR4.

WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 12: @Dal.): It’s likely that Williams’ 8 targets last week were more a result of the game being out of hand than part of the original plan, but it’s still an encouraging sign. His usage has been too inconsistent to use him in season-long leagues this week, but he could be a tournament winner for the Thanksgiving DFS slate. He costs just $100 more than the minimum in DraftKings, and faces a Cowboys’ defense that allows the 6^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs.

WR Chad Williams, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Don’t play Williams this week against the ferocious Jaguars’ defense, but keep an eye on his usage and production. John Brown is likely to miss this game with a toe injury, and head coach Bruce Arians said Williams has impressed in practice and “is going to get his shot.” The Jaguars allow the fewest WR points per game by a wide margin, so if Williams has an even remotely productive game he’s likely worth a flier in deep leagues and dynasty formats.

TE Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Like his teammate Chad Williams, Seals-Jones is just a stash at this point, and for Ricky it’s specifically for dynasty leagues. He’s played just 9 offensive snaps all year (only one before week 11), and managed to see 6 targets and put up 3-54-2 with them. He finished as the TE2 in week 11. That kind of production isn’t sustainable on that snap count…still, starting TE Jermaine Gresham has just 2 TDs all year. Ricky is a converted WR who can be a matchup nightmare at 6’5”, 243, but I’d need to see his playing time increase to consider rostering him in season-long leagues. At the very least, his performance last weekend has made him a rookie to keep an eye on.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of the critical lineup decisions you have to make this week. If you see two players listed at the same position under the same header above, they are listed in the order that I like them for this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week, and make sure you don’t miss any players playing on Thanksgiving. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.