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The AFC West division was fairly successful in 2014, and has been topped by the Denver Broncos for the past four seasons. Will the Broncos again come out on top in the West? How will the changes in the off-season this year affect the major fantasy players from each team? Read on to find out, and click on the podcast for more insights that didn't make it to the article. Cheers!

Denver Broncos

Additions:
Gary Kubiak (Coach)
Wade Phillips (Defensive Coordinator)
Owen Daniels (TE, from BAL)

Departures:
John Fox (Coach)
Julius Thomas (TE, JAX)
Jacob Tamme (TE, ATL)

What’s it all mean?
Well, the Broncos have been throwing in all their chips to try and win themselves a Super Bowl (or, “World Championship” as Elway calls it) for the past 3 years. They are led by a 39-year-old quarterback in Peyton Manning (albeit one who threw for a combined 10k yards and 94 TDs over the past 2 seasons) and are going to give the damn thing one more try, it seems. I’ve learned not to count Manning out, but he does seem to be slowing down toward the end of the season in his old age – if you’re interested in grabbing him for a fantasy league it may be best to capitalize on production early and sell him high after the halfway point in the season. Regardless, he should still end up in the top tier of QBs when the dust clears from the 2015 season, barring injury.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 6/23/15: AFC West Spotlight!) 

Running Back is an interesting position to discuss here as some still believe that 3rd year player Montee Ball could end up back on top of the depth chart. Personally, I would not count on that as C.J. Anderson seems to have impressed enough in the 2nd half of the 2014 season that he should monopolize the touches in the backfield. Anderson’s ADP is currently about 15 in a standard league. That’s the middle of the 2nd round. Let’s look at two players currently going after him: Jeremy Hill, and Alfred Morris. Would you want either of those over Anderson? I wouldn’t. It looks like there is a steep drop-off right around there as well. Ronnie Hillman may get some scattered work throughout the season but will not be fantasy relevant unless there is a major injury or production problem with Anderson.

Demariyus Thomas is easily the #1 go-to WR target for Manning this year and his numbers should reflect that. He has been very consistent over the past few years and we should expect over 1400 yards and at least 10 TDs as a floor. His ADP is currently holding around 13, which means that he is being drafted right below Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant. Personally, I would rank him higher than Beckham simply based on the years of production consistency that we have been able to see from Thomas. Emmanuel Sanders had a career year in 2014, effectively almost doubling his receiving yards and TDs from his previous high in 2013 while playing for the Steelers. Obviously he’ll still be used a great deal in the passing game, but these seem like unsustainable numbers to me in this new offense and even Sanders recognizes that, saying “You talk about going from a no-huddle offense to an offense that is predicated off running a football then throwing it. It’s different.”

We’ve heard some good things about Cody Latimer (lining up as the 3rd wide receiver currently), but he still hasn’t really shown us the money. We could chalk some of that up to rookie jitters but he’ll likely only get one more shot to prove himself here before someone else steps up to the plate. Veteran Andre Caldwell is hanging around as well but likely won’t get much playing time unless Sanders or Thomas are out for an extended period. The situation at tight end looks pretty clear to me: newly acquired Own Daniels should immediately play a large role in the passing game and nab a few TDs in the red zone, probably showing up his 2014 stats of 527 yards and 4 TDs. I’ll conservatively estimate his production on a Peyton Manning team at 850 yards and 7 TDs, which would be career highs at both stats. Daniels is an interesting player to keep in mind since his ADP is currently around 107 – here is someone you can grab in the 10th or 11th rounds that could perform within the top 10 at his position.

San Diego Chargers

Additions:
Melvin Gordon (rookie, RB)
Stevie Johnson (WR, SF)

Departures:
Eddie Royal (WR, CHI)
Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI)

Outlook:
Outlook hazy. That’s what the magic 8-ball says when I ask it about the San Diego Chargers, anyway. Philip Rivers will probably throw for his usual 4k yards and 30 TDs, putting his value this year squarely above the Andy Dalton line as a startable QB2 that you can pick up in the 10th or 11th round of most drafts.

Keenan Allen, who had a dip in production last year, looks to bounce back this year in his 3rd NFL season. I don’t see why this couldn’t be a possibility, especially since the other targets on the team are aging veterans Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates. The Chargers did sign former Bills and 49ers receiver Stevie Johnson to a three-year, 10 million dollar contract and will likely use him in place of Eddie Royal in the slot and to create mismatches where possible. People may have forgotten about Johnson’s successes in 2010-2012 with Buffalo, where he was averaging over 1000 yards and 8 TDs per season over three years. Only 28-years-old, I think that Johnson could have a bounce back year here and will certainly improve over last year’s dismal performance on the 49ers (435 yards and 3 TDs).

What am I saying here? Ok.. so I think that Allen is being undervalued and should prove a valuable part of someone’s team this year – you can currently find him going in the 6th round and I would have no problem picking him up there. Stevie Johnson is going undrafted in most leagues and could very well become someone to pick up and play mid-year in PPR leagues, but since he is sitting at the WR3 position for the Chargers I wouldn’t suggest drafting him on your team – rather just keeping an eye out in case he surprises early.

Melvin Gordon is the brand new bread & butter back for the Chargers who should immediately take the reins of the running game. He is not known as a passing-down back, though, and so the newly healthy Danny Woodhead should resume his role from 2013 as the pass catcher in the backfield. I don’t expect 76 receptions again, especially since Branden Oliver was able to showcase some ability in 2014 so he may spell Woodhead slightly, but I do expect fantasy relevant production from Woodhead as a RB3 in PPR leagues.

Gates is a gamble. He just turned 35. Not a good thing for an NFL tight end. Besides that, Ladarius Green is right behind him, waiting to cut into his playing time. Gates may have some good games this year, but I’m not drafting either Gates or Green for my squads.

Kansas City Chiefs

Additions:
Jeremy Maclin (WR, PHI)

Departures:
Dwayne Bowe (WR, CLE)

The Future:
All aboard the Alex Smith traaaaiiinnnn…. Yeah. That’s a train that I’m not too excited to take. He’s a consistent quarterback though, consistently mediocre. Consistently hands the football off to Jamaal Charles. Remember, in 2014 there were no wide receivers that caught a touchdown. None! And as much as we may think Dwayne Bowe has been criminally overrated for years now, Alex Smith is the reason.

Moving right along, Jeremy Maclin was acquired by the Chiefs in the off-season from the Eagles. To most, it was quite a surprise that Maclin was made available by Philadelphia but he should definitely help out the ailing Chiefs’ receiving core and maybe event tempt Alex Smith into throwing a few touchdowns, who knows? Expect statistical regression for Maclin but this may end up being a surprise for everyone involved here one way or the other. Let’s be honest, it’s more likely that Maclin ends up underperforming here with Smith under center. Too bad.

The real breakout here could be Travis Kelce. A rookie last year, Kelce built up a great rapport with Smith and ended up with over 800 yards and 5 TDs. This year should see even better stats, especially with Charles and Maclin stretching the field in several directions to pull defenders from Kelce’s routes. Kelce currently has an ADP of 53, going in the 6th round (based on all of the 6th round ADPs that we have mentioned so far, it looks like it’s filled with value at the moment) but could end up being a top 5 TE this year, easy.

Jamaal Charles has been carrying the offense of the Chiefs for a few years now, and that doesn’t look to slow down any in 2015. Not a bruising running back, Charles loves to find himself with the football in space, excelling in making the most of the yards after the catch. Because of this playing style, he may enjoy a few more years at the position than others. Nipping at his heels, though, is Knile Davis. Playing a very similar style to Charles, the Chiefs have had a lot of success with Davis when Charles was injured in 2014. They also use him to spell Charles during games. It’s clear, though, that when Charles is healthy and out on the field, Davis is relegated to backup duties exclusively. That said, Charles owners would be wise to think about scooping up Davis later in the draft if possible – I rarely ever advise going for a handcuff option during a draft but here is one that would immediately be a RB1.

Oakland Raiders

Additions:
Amari Cooper (WR, Rookie)

Roy Helu (RB, WAS)

Trent Richardson (RB, IND)

Michael Crabtree (WR, SF)

Clive Walford (TE, Rookie)

Departures:
Darren McFadden (RB, DAL)

Denarius Moore (WR, CIN)

Where is Oakland headed?

Thankfully, the answer is "in the right direction". Derek Carr performed fairly well as a rookie (3270 yards, 21 TDs, 12 INTs) and the Raiders' management has continued to rebuild the team with solid components. Most notably, Amari Cooper was drafted to be the WR of the future for the Raiders and he has been widely recognized as one of the better receiver prospects to come out of college in the past several years. We are expecting Carr to slowly improve his performance and he may end up being a franchise quarterback for the Raiders that we are talking about for the next 5-10 years.

Denarius Moore looked like he could be a breakout receiver for the team after his production increased in 2012 (posting 700+ yards and 7 TDs) from his rookie year, but after a steady decline since then and some injury concerns, he departs for Cincy. Amari Cooper was drafted to be the #1 WR here and he should step into the role without missing a beat. Most are predicting 80+ catches in his first year and we don't disagree with that assessment. Cooper should be the best receiving talent that Oakland has rostered in years. Slotting into the #2 spot is ex-49'er Michael Crabtree. Coming out of college, Crabtree was heralded as possible star but hasn't shown many glimpses of that outside of his 2012 season (1105 yards, 9 TDs). Don't expect any other receivers (Rod Streater, Andre Holmes) to produce much fantasy value outside of Cooper in 2015.

The RB situation looks promising for the first time in a few years - with the exit of aging backs Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew, a new era begins in Oakland with athletic freak Latavius Murray and complementary passing down back Roy Helu. If Murray is able to handle the load (he only averaged 3.8 yards per carry in the last 4 games of the season - his 5.2 average was due to some breakout runs in the games prior) he could easily be a top 10 running back going forward in the NFL. Helu is only relevant in deeper PPR leagues unless Murray washes out. The Raiders also picked up Trent Richardson, though likely only for depth and because he was an inexpensive commodity on the market after poor performances in the past few seasons.

Incumbent tight end Mychal Rivera and new rookie pick Clive Walford will compete for touches in this offense, but neither will be fantasy relevant outside of deep PPR leagues. In fact, these tight ends could cannibalize each other's value here because there won't be enough touches to go around after Cooper and Crabtree get theirs. We would stay away from this situation for the time being.

Last year, the NFC South were essentially the basement dwellers of the NFL, with none of the teams even reaching .500. There were 22 wins between all 4 teams, Tampa Bay didn't win a single game at home, Carolina had a tie (ugh, the worst). 5 of Atlanta's 6 wins came inside the division, where they went an astounding 5-1. None of the teams had a better point differential than -23! Of course, with all of that being said, Carolina still managed to win a playoff game and had an OK showing in Seattle, for one half. So, enough looking in the past, let's see what these teams have done to make things better!

Carolina Panthers (7-8-1):

Add/Re-sign -

Greg Olsen, TE - 3 year extension

Michael Oher, T, 2 year FA contract, Jonathan Martin, T, claimed from waivers

Ted Ginn Jr., WR, 2 year contract (was on the team in 2013)

Cam Newton, QB, 6 year extension

Devin Funchess, WR - 2nd round pick (#41 overall)

Jarrett Boykin, WR - one year contract

Departures -

DeAngelo Williams, RB - Released, now in PIT

Issues:

Last year, the Panthers were severely lacking at the wide receiver position. Their first round pick in 2014, Kelvin Benjamin, did stand out and show a lot of promise. Even with that, it's clear that this offseason, the plan was to get much better at that position. The Panthers will now feature guys on the outside at 6'4" and 6'5", and should easily pass the 3828 yards they had cumulatively last season.

Cam Newton and Greg Olsen, their most legitimate and consistent threat over the last few years, have been re-signed. Olsen, Funchess and Benjamin will help Cam improve from an off year last season where he was troubled by injury early, and again late in the season. A healthy Cam ought to get at least 4000 yards with an improved receiving core.

Jonathan Stewart is now the clear #1 in Carolina, and we all saw how well that worked out at the end of last year. Over the years, fantasy owners have been constantly burned by the two-headed attack that the Panthers have had, splitting carries between Williams and Stewart. Well, worry no more. Stewart is backed up by Mike Tolbert and Fozzy Whittaker, so there's really no stopping him from getting the ball 20-25 times per game. The Panthers are packed with good fantasy potential this season, with 4 and perhaps 5 for sure weekly starters.

New Orleans Saints (7-9):

Add/Re-Sign -

C.J. Spiller, RB - FA, 4 year contract

Mark Ingram, RB - 4 year extension

Departures -

Jimmy Graham, TE - Traded to SEA

Pierre Thomas, RB - Cut

Kenny Stills, WR - Traded to MIA

Issues:

It would appear that the Saints have several issues. Traditionally a pass-first team, they traded away two of their top receiving threats, Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. This has a lot of people scratching their head, trying to figure out what the Saints are thinking. Last year's play selection, the addition of C.J. Spiller and the new contract for Mark Ingram all point to this team shifting their focus to a run-first attitude. The early prediction is that Spiller and Ingram will split carries, which, I suppose, will result in the same guessing game that fantasy owners have been dealing with for years.

Drew Brees will continue to be Drew Brees, that is, he's the guy that's thrown for over 4300 yards the last 9 years in a row, and once again lead the league (tied) in passing yards. He may not approach 5000 yards again, but it's probably a sure thing that he has his 10th straight season over 4000 yards. He will probably be a top 5 fantasy QB and will make use of whoever is there at WR.

Speaking of the WR's, who's left? Marques Colston is past his prime, but will still enter the season as the top guy. Brandin Cooks and Nick Toon both showed promise, and they will likely take another step up in their development, with Drew Brees leading the way. Finally, the question most people have been asking about the Saints all offseason, how do you replace Jimmy Graham? Josh Hill will try, but Drew Brees can't perform miracles, so don't expect one. The only sure fantasy value on this team seems to start with Drew Brees. Brandin Cooks has a good shot at being a solid WR2/3, and it's pretty unclear as to who is going to be worth starting at RB, but they're both worth owning.

Atlanta Falcons (6-10):

Add/Re-Sign -

Jacob Tamme, TE - 2 year contract

Tony Moeaki, TE - 1 year contract

Antone Smith, RB - re-sign 1 year contract

Eric Weems, WR - re-sign 2 year contract

Tevin Coleman, RB - 3rd round pick, #73 overall

Departures -

Steven Jackson, RB - Released

Harry Douglans, WR - Released, now in TEN

Jacquizz Rogers, RB - Signed by Bears

Issues:

The Falcons were only able to win one game outside of their division in 2014, yet still had a chance in week 17 to make the playoffs. The NFL is kinda weird sometimes. So, the Falcons already have a few well established fantasy names on their team that you can count on for 2015. Starting with the WR's, Jones and White are going to continue to dominate the targets on the team. Jones has the potential to finish as a top WR, and White, while getting older, can definitely be a threat and fantasy relevant if he stays healthy. Eric Weems was re-signed as the third WR to replace Harry Douglas, but like Douglas, he won't be relevant unless one of the big two guys goes down.

Matt Ryan finished as the #7 fantasy QB last year, and with the same weapons as last year, he will likely remain in the top 10. They're still trying to find a replacement for Tony Gonzalez. They'll use Tamme and Moeaki this season, with Tamme in a primary role. They won't likely wind up as top 10 fantasy guys, however the potential is there in this offense for big production at that position.

The rushing game has been lacking in Atlanta for the last couple of seasons. This year, it's all about the youth movement. Second year RB Devonta Freeman may sit on top of depth charts, but expect third round pick Tevin Coleman to have a good chance at starting. I'm interested in seeing if they will make more use of Antone Smith, a guy who seemed magical every time he touched the ball last season. Overall, the Falcons have three guys you can count on for reliable fantasy production, and a few spots where you could get a couple of surprise performances.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14):

Add/Re-Sign -

Jameis Winston, QB - First Overall pick in the 2015 draft

Donovan Smith, T - 34th overall pick, will protect Winson's blind side

Tim Wright, TE - Claimed off waivers

Henry Melton, Chris Conte, Major Wright - Lovie Smith is adding a bunch of guys that he used to coach on the Bears

Departures -

Josh McCown, QB - Went to Cleveland

Issues:

Last year the Bucs finished a dismal 2-10, they didn't win a single game at home, and they scored 133 fewer points than their opponents, the 4th worst in the league. So, with all of that in mind, the Bucs are putting their faith in Jameis Winston, their first overall draft pick and hopeful franchise QB. Winston is unlikely to break into the top 10 QB's in his first season (few ever do), but he might be worth keeping around as a backup and for bye weeks. His rushing ability will keep his fantasy floor high.

The Bucs current strength on offense definitely lies at the WR position. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are another tall duo on the outside, something that has become very popular lately in the NFL, and for good reason. Both Evans and Jackson went over 1000 yards each, with Evans scoring 12 times. I expect both of them to break 1000 again this year, but any production further down the depth chart is questionable at best.

Doug Martin has had a tumultuous few seasons in the NFL. He was a rookie phenom, but struggled and was also bit by the injury bug in the next two seasons. He's still in line for the starting job, but he has Bobby Rainey, Mike James and Charles Sims all breathing down his neck. This situation will get fleshed out through the preseason - it's anyone's guess at this point what will happen at RB for the Bucs. The Bucs will go with either Tim Wright or Austin Seferian-Jenkins at TE, but neither are really likely to bust out into relevance in Winston's first year. Overall, stick with the WR's on this team for fantasy relevance, and monitor the rest for waiver wire pickups or bench depth.

The NFC East division contains the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles & Washington Redskins. While the Cowboys and Eagles both had successful seasons last year, the Giants and Redskins had major issues that they tried to address during the off-season. It looks like the Cowboys are poised for another playoff run in 2015 and the Eagles may have a chance to try their luck as well after just missing the playoffs last year, but the Giants and Redskins may have some trouble turning the ship around. We'll see!

Dallas Cowboys (12-4 in 2014):

Arrivals -

Darren McFadden (RB, from OAK)

Greg Hardy (DL, from CAR)

Departures -

DeMarco Murray (RB, to PHI)

Analysis:

Let’s start at the quarterback position since it will likely be a fairly quick trip through the depth chart. Tony Romo has been the Cowboys’ starter since 2006 and known no other professional team during his career in the NFL. Romo has been a consistently undervalued fantasy QB over the past four years (2011-2014), putting up an average stat line of over 4,100 yards and over 30 TDs each year. His passing yards have decreased over the past two seasons due to the increased lean on the running game, but with question marks hovering over the talent of this year’s backfield he is likely to finish with over 4,000 yards yet again. Backup QB Brandon Weeden is barely worth mentioning as Romo is one of those guys that will play through injuries, even fairly major ones.

I mentioned the running back situation being a cloudy one: after the departure of DeMarco Murray (who rushed 392 times for over 1,800 yards and 13 TDs in 2014) this off-season, the Cowboys are left with 3^rd year RB Joseph Randle (51 rushes for 343 yards and 3 TDs in 2014 but also adding in 2 fumbles), Darren McFadden (who hasn’t even gotten close to rushing for over 1,000 yards since his breakout season in Oakland in 2010) and Lance Dunbar (a small framed, speedy back whose total all-purpose yardage over three years in the NFL is 633 and has never scored a TD). It’s likely that this unlikely bunch forms a committee with Randle as the lead RB unless he goes on any more shopping sprees without paying the bill. Rumors have been swirling in the past few weeks about the Cowboys signing another veteran running back (Ray Rice, Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Johnson and Pierre Thomas are all free agents currently), but no moves have been made as of yet.

Dez Bryant was finally signed to a long-term contract recently (five years, $70 million with $45 million guaranteed), making him one of the highest paid receivers in the NFL. Bryant should perform at a high level all year and some experts (including me) think that he will finish in the top 3 fantasy points at his position due to an increase in production for the Cowboy’s passing offense. Terrance Williams put up 621 yards and 8 TDs in 2014, but was very inconsistent in the second half of the season. According to ESPN Dalls, Williams had a great off-season and was able to run routes with the first team at all receiving positions (mostly because of Bryant’s absence during the majority of the Cowboys’ training and minicamp). Williams could contribute to fantasy teams but his production is dependent on the volume of targets he receives. Slot receiver Cole Beasley was recently resigned to a four year deal and was very productive (unlike Williams) in the second half of the season. In PPR leagues, Beasley is a late-round sleeper that could perform at a steady WR3 level all season. I don’t see any other relevance in the Cowboy’s receiving corps except to say that UDFA Lucky Whitehead has an unfortunate name.

Tight end Jason Witten has spent his career catching passes from Tony Romo and although he did see a decline in production over the past two years, that decline coincides with the recent rise of the running game in Dallas and since I am predicting an overall increase in passing yardage, Witten’s stats should rise slightly. At an ADP somewhere between rounds 10-12, Witten is a value pick that could end up finishing the season somewhere around #10 at his position. 33 years old this season, it’s my opinion that Witten is a great pick in redraft leagues (especially PPR) but is nearing the end of his relevance in dynasty and standard scoring leagues.

New York Giants (6-10 in 2014):

Arrivals -

Shane Vereen (RB, from NE)

Steve Spagnuolo (Defensive Coordinator, from Ravens – assistant head coach)

Departures -

Antrel Rolle, Quintin Demps and Stevie Brown (S)

Zackary Bowman and Walter Thurmond (CB)

Outlook:

We don’t often start the conversation talking about the defense, but the Giants loss of most of their backfield (see above) after just making it over in 2013 is troubling for a team that has been treading water lately. Still, they can’t be much worse after retooling their defense with a younger bunch of players; they ranked as the 4^th worst defense in total yards last year – just above the Chicago Bears – giving up 6012 all-purpose yards over the course of the season.

Eli Manning (or, ‘The Winning-est Manning’ as he likes to be called) has certainly has his ups and downs as a fantasy QB. Over the past four years (2011-2014) he has averaged over 4,200 yards and just over 25 TDs per season. The main issues at play here are his consistency and his interceptions. Manning has averaged 18 interceptions per year over that time (more than 1 per game!), which makes any smart fantasy football manager question the decision to draft him in leagues that penalize for INTs. This is his second season under new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo and that’s great news because his passing completion percentage last year of 63.1% was his highest ever and he only threw 14 interceptions (tied for his lowest ever when playing a full season). With great receiving talents and the addition of passing back Shane Vereen, I’m betting that Manning will have a great 2015.

Odell Beckham was a rookie in 2014. A rookie that put up insane stats, that is. 91 receptions for 1,305 yards and 12 TDs. Try as I might, I can’t throw his performance in 2014 away as a fluke. It’s difficult to put a 2^nd year receiver up there with guys like A.J. Green and Calvin Johnson, but – difficult or not – he deserves his current ADP of first or second round overall. I’m going to assume a slight regression in stats for Beckham now that he is on tape and opposing defenses have had time to study and plan against him, but he should still be a WR1 regardless – he’s just too talented not to be. Remember when picking up Victor Cruz as a free agent in 2011 would have won you a fantasy football tournament? Well, he’s back and supposedly ready to produce at a high level. After regressing each year since his breakout 2011 performance, though, I’m going to hold off on drafting Cruz and let someone else salsa their way into misstep during the draft (yes, I think his current ADP in the 10^th round is more than fair – Cruz will not be the same receiver that he once was. Reuben Randle is a name that has come up a lot in recent years, always with the possibility of breaking out as a big receiver in the red zone. He has not yet lived up to the hype, but if we are to follow the trends, he has continued to improve year after year (2014 stats were 71 receptions for 938 yards and 3 TDs) and he had some ridiculous games at the end of the year. It’s odd, because he currently has an ADP in the 21^st round but I see him ending up as the WR2 on the Giants – not Cruz.

Ah… running backs. The Giants have always kept a big stable of RBs on the roster and this year is no different. Rashad Jennings should lead the charge at the start of the season and perform decently, but he has never played all 16 games in a season (11 in 2014) and his yards per carry were dismal last year at just 3.8 – this should give pause to anyone looking to draft Jennings as a RB1 or RB2 to count on. He is also just recently celebrated his 30^th birthday. Old and injury prone is not what you should be looking for in your RB! Andre Williams is a 2^nd year RB that will start off the season behind Jennings, but will likely end up splitting the carries later in the season. He had 217 rushes for 721 yards and 7 TDs last year – making his average yards per carry even worse than Jennings’ at 3.3 but his age and ability at the goal line should not be ignored, especially in dynasty leagues. I would shy away from both RBs in redraft leagues unless you have a very accurate magic 8-ball. An interesting addition to the team is former New England Patriot Shane Vereen, who excelled as a passing back there and will have the same job in New York. He’s going to have a hard time putting up big numbers, but should be valuable in PPR leagues as Manning’s new best friend when the going gets tough.

Larry Donnell is a 6’6”, 265 lb. beast who ended up as the #12 tight end at the end of the 2014 season. This is mostly due to a 3 TD game against the Redskins in week 3, but he was involved in most games during the season, averaging 3-4 receptions per game. The major issue here is that he is a touchdown dependent player on a team that needs to utilize him for blocking as well except that he graded out as one of the worst blocking TEs in the NFL. Tough to pull the trigger on this guy.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6 in 2014):

Arrivals -

Sam Bradford (QB, from STL)

DeMarco Murray (RB, from DAL)

Ryan Mathews (RB, from SD)

Nelson Agholor (WR, Rookie)

Tim Tebow (QB)

Departures -

Nick Foles (QB, to STL)

LeSean McCoy (RB, to BUF)

Jeremy Maclin (WR, to KC)

Outlook:

The Eagles are likely the NFL team to have made the biggest moves in the off-season this year. We’ll see how it pays off for Chip Kelly & Co. There is certainly a lot of explosiveness and firepower here to go around and the Eagles have been running an exciting, fast paced offense that figures to get even more exciting and fast paced in 2015.

Sam Bradford is the QB that everyone thinks could be great but those expectations are continually cut short by injury and also by the lack of weapons that he had available to him in St. Louis. Here in Philadelphia, Bradford could be a high scoring fantasy QB but what are the odds that his knee acts up again? Probably about 1 in 2. Meanwhile, The Eagles have taken Tim Tebow and are looking to use him in any way possible (which will probably be to come out and confound the defenses in the red zone) and Mark Sanchez is fighting every day for the possibility of being the Eagles’ signal caller. He also knows that there is a good chance that Bradford either gets re-injured or doesn’t live up to expectations in this new offense that he knows well.

DeMarco Murray is the #1 RB here any way you slice it. Reports from the Eagles’ camp are saying that Kelly will spread the football around, but this probably just means that Murray will be spelled by both Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles from time to time and Sproles will mix in similar to how he was used last year. I’m not expecting big things out of Mathews with Murray around, so his 11^th round ADP is probably warranted, though if Murray were to go down Mathews would immediately become a RB1 in this system. Murray’s ADP, on the other hand, is currently in the middle of the 2^nd round. How likely is it that his production warrants such a high draft spot? I think he is being slightly overvalued but should put up similar numbers to RBs drafted around the same time, such as LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Hill.

The departure of former WR1 Jeremy Maclin came as a shock to many, but you have to remember that Maclin was not a guy picked by the current administration. After the shake-up, the new receivers of note here are Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, Riley Cooper and Josh Huff. Matthews was a rookie last year and ended the 2014 season with 67 receptions for 872 yards and 8 TDs behind Maclin. He showed great promise and ran routes both in the slot and as an outside receiver, and this year should have the most targets out of the Eagles’ receiving corps. Agholor is a rookie from USC with great measurable and projects to replace Maclin on most snaps – putting him in prime contention with Matthews for targets and setting the bar high out of the gate for production. It’s tough to say how well he will perform over the course of the season, but his 10^th round ADP is undervaluing him – I would have no problem reaching for Agholor in the 8^th round, for example, if I’m in need of some high risk/reward WRs at that point in the draft. Huff and Cooper both have too much preseason hype, if you ask me – I’m staying away from the both of them because even if they are strong fantasy producers, it won’t be consistent.

The tight end situation in Philadelphia is an interesting one. Zach Ertz has been heralded as the second coming, but the Eagles are too much in love with Brent Celek and his amazing blocking skills to truly switch over to Ertz as an every down player. I do think we’ll see more of Ertz this year, however, as he has just started playing over 50% of snaps in 2014 and has increased his blocking abilities. 2014 brought us a good stat line of 58 receptions for 702 yards for 3 TDs and I’m not jumping on the bandwagon like some others, but I think Ertz has a shot at being a top 10 TE if he has proved himself an able blocker in Chip’s system. His 9^th round ADP is not such a tough sell and I see some people probably reaching for him earlier than that in drafts this year.

Washington Redskins (4-12 in 2014):

Arrivals -

Terrance Knighton (DL, from DEN)

Chris Culliver (CB, from SF)

Matt Jones (RB, Rookie)

Departures -

Brian Orakpo (OLB, to TEN)

Leonard Hankerson (WR, to ATL)

Roy Helu (RB, to OAK)

Santana Moss (WR, Free Agent)

Outlook:

Everyone was so enamored with Robert Griffin III’s 2012 season that the subsequent years of sub-par performance came as quite a shock. Explaining away a poor sophomore effort doesn’t take much of a stretch, but he may never return to his previous form after having been injured and losing both physical explosiveness and mental confidence in his game. The Redskins are going to continue to give Griffin a chance, however, and he was starting to grasp Jay Gruden’s new offense. The interesting thing here is that RG3’s draft stock is so low that he could end up being an extreme value pick as a late round flier. That said, I’m avoiding this situation regardless of whether or not Griffin shows signs of turning his career around. Based on past history, we’ll likely see one of either Kirk Cousins or Colt McCoy taking the field at some point in 2015 – neither of which are worth much consideration.

Alfred Morris has consistently been a 1000+ yard rusher in the NFL and that will certainly continue in 2015. Morris has never been too involved in the passing game (former Redskins’ RB Roy Helu had 42 receptions last year), and rookie Matt Jones will be filling Helu’s role this season and trying to get as many carries as possible in this offense. I think Morris’s position in the offense is very secure right now, though, and he holds an excellent value at his current ADP (beginning of the 4^th round). Jones looks like a RB that could grow into a strong fantasy producer, but he’s currently off the draft radar except in deep PPR leagues or dynasty leagues.

The acquisition of DeSean Jackson in 2014 was a boost for the Redskins’ offense and he performed very well (56 receptions for 1169 yards and 6 TDs), although not approaching his career best numbers in 2013 as a Philadelphia Eagle (82 receptions for 1332 yards and 9 TDs). We’re projecting him to have a very similar season, putting up around the same numbers when all is said and done but being a high risk/reward play on a weekly basis. Pierre Garcon was the league leader in reception in 2013, with 113 for 1346 yards and 5 TDs. Obviously, his production went down when Jackson was brought on board (Garcon’s 2014 stats were 68 receptions for 752 yards and 3 TDs) but that also has a lot to do with Redskins’ troubled offense in general last year. All signs point to Garcon being more involved in the offense this year, but expectations should certainly be tempered here. Andre Roberts and Ryan Grant are intriguing prospects, but there is not enough to go around yet on this offense.

Jordan Reed has had some great games as a safety valve for Robert Griffin III. The problem is not his talent, but his health. A 3^rd year player in the NFL, Reed has never played more than 11 games in a season and it’s difficult to say with any conviction that he will be able to do so in 2015. When he is on the field, however, he is an asset to the team and a talented enough player to contribute positively on a fantasy team (especially PPR & deep leagues). Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s a smart decision to gamble on Reed this year based on his past history and also fellow tight end, Niles Paul, who will certainly be pushing for snaps on the field as well.

Thoughts do not get too much more random than this!

The process of studying for this year’s fantasy football drafts is in full effect. While going through some of the trends of drafts from yester-year, the time spent looking over when kickers were selected was equivalent to the amount spent watching The ESPY’s over the last 15 years – it didn’t happen.

Then out of nowhere, the unthinkable happened. For the first time since, um, ever, some thought needs to be put into kickers this year!
Pretty sure you’re laughing right now…so I’ll wait …

…

…

OK.

Hard to believe, but it’s true! I’m not saying that you need to spend hours upon hours comparing bye weeks, looking at who plays who during fantasy playoff weeks, analyzing field temperatures and average wind gusts at every stadium. But keep this in mind, with the recent rule changes, the extra point is no longer a sure thing.
Coach’s now have the option of kicking the extra point, which was moved back to the 15 yard line, or try for a two point conversion from the two yard line. Quick analysis says that an extra point from the 15 really isn’t that big of an adjustment.

What you need to look at though is the team’s willingness to go for two more often, which would obviously take fantasy points away from your kicker. When deciding on which kicker to take, which still should be the last round of your draft), look at the tendencies of the team they kick for.
Two teams jump out immediately as having the chance to take a few points away from their kicker –

New England – This will probably be the biggest impact in kicker decisions as Stephen Gostkowski has been one of, if not the first kicker taken in most drafts. The chance to score more points and add embarrassment to an embarrassing situation has always been a characteristic of the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick. Normally I would say that this would definitely be something to keep an eye on when the Pats play the Jets…and maybe fellow division rivals Miami and Buffalo, but with everything that has gone on now with the deflate-a-gate shenanigans, I am sure that Belichick and maybe even owner Robert Kraft from what it sounds like will want to stick it to the league as a whole this season…if given the opportunity.

Philadelphia – Do YOU know what Chip Kelly is thinking? Because I’m pretty sure that he isn’t too sure himself. All that we know for sure is that Kelly loves his high powered offense he brought from Oregon and he has roughly 14 quarterbacks on his roster…one of which being Tim Tebow. Though being the field general for a full football field is not exactly Tebow’s forte, a two-yard field might be right up his alley. Utilizing Tebow in a two point conversion situation may keep opposing defense’s on their toes enough to generate a high conversion percentage. This should bump Eagles kicker Cody Parkey’s ranking down a few spots.

No one has given this much attention to kickers since Adam Sandler. With the new PAT rules, kickers may become even more lonesome than even Sandler had thought.