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It is crazy how fast the NFL season goes once you get into it. We are headed into week 5, the last week before bye weeks start. We also have our first London game of the year!  I think I speak for every American when I whole heartedly apologize to our British brothers and sisters for sending them the Jets and Falcons. Short note, that game kicks off at 9:30 AM Eastern time Sunday morning. Set your alarms, but more importantly set those fantasy lineups.

Two more wins for the official drinkfive picks brings our season record to 8-4. Seattle rolled in San Francisco and won outright as a road dog and we double dipped with the Ravens in Denver as a dog, or short favorite, and on the money line. Minnesota was a disappointing loss and my hat goes off to the Cleveland Browns holding that offense to 7 points on their own field. Aside from our official picks I had a lot of fun, and wins, with teasers last weekend, so I wanted to start with a little teaser blurb and point on some teams this week to consider throwing in a teaser play.

A teaser is similar to a parlay in the sense that you need more than one win to win the bet. Unlike a parlay though a teaser does change the spread and total. Traditionally teasers are done in 6-point increments. Dogs gain an extra 6 points and favorites subtract 6 points from their number; likewise, with totals. There at a few rules you should always follow when playing teasers. First, never cross the zero!  You lose value when you cross the zero with a favorite because you are “giving up” a whole point when the number crosses the zero. The second rule is to cross two key numbers. This works for both favorite and dog teasers. Crossing two key numbers present the best value and highlights a significant advantage to the bettor.

Teaser Teams for Week 5 Include:

Seattle +2.5 to +8.5

Washington +1.5 to +7.5

Minnesota -8.5 to -2.5

Cleveland +2.5 to +8.5

Baltimore -6.5 to -0.5

Buffalo +2.5 to +8.5

Two team teasers pay out roughly -110 to -120 odds so they are similar to a single straight up bet, but you are getting the extra 6 points one way or the other so you’re decreasing the risk. I recommend only focusing on two team teasers to limit the risk associated with needing multiple things to go right.

New York Jets +3.5 vs Atlanta

That’s right, I will be setting my alarm for an early morning sweat on the Jets in the London game. Atlanta opened as 4-point favorites and the line was bet down to 3.5 almost immediately before being bet down further to 3 by mid-week. Now that its rested at 3 I have seen some books bump back up to the 3.5 and I think that is the key number to take if you’re riding with me on the Jets here.  This is an ugly game with two bad teams and while the bets are virtually split the Jets are taking in a massive 78% of the money, which signals sharp action. Jets are also a short dog with a line move in their favor, a system that hits at 62% over the last two seasons.

New York Giants +7 at Dallas

Oh man this one is tough to swallow, but its simply too high a number given the situation. First of all, this is a divisional matchup and I am strong believer that division dogs are the best dogs to take. I will repeat this a lot, but teams are built to win their divisions which means they are built to play best against teams in their division. Beyond that they have familiarity because they play each other every season, twice a season. Danny Dimes is also an ATS machine when he’s on the road going 11-4 ATS (73%) for his career. That improves to 10-2 ATS (82%) as a road dog. As of right now this number has been locked at 7, which is a line move in favor of the Giant in spite of only having 22% of the bets. That being said I am going to hold off on locking this in right now until I can see if I can get a 7.5. If it never moves back I will be jumping on it officially at 7 on game day or before it moves lower.

Buffalo +3 at Kansas City

Aside from just being an incredible treat and matchup, this game is strength vs strength. Mahomes is playing out of his mind, even by his standards, with 14 TD passes already on this young season. Behind that phenomenal play the Chiefs have the top DVOA offense in the league. In comes Buffalo, and immediately people are going to be excited about Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes, however the Buffalo defense going against the top offensive weapon in the league should be the most polarizing aspect of this game. Buffalo’s defense is #1 in DVOA and it isn’t even close. When you break down the analytics Buffalo has a historic defense though the first 4 weeks. They stop the run (2nd best in the league) and they are the best at defending the pass. Like I said this is strength vs strength and outside of betting I am genuinely excited to watch this game on Sunday night. From a betting perspective this is a Bills play all the way. They are short road dog, 19-6 ATS, a prime-time dog, 7-5 ATS, and Josh Allen is 14-6-2 (70%) as a dog. It gets slightly better with Josh Allen going 11-4-1 (73%) in games with a line of 3 or less. Buffalo has the fire power against a weaker defense to get the lead early, and they have the defense to hold onto it. I am taking the points and putting a little on the money line. 

Through 3 weeks we are 6-3 on the official drinkfive picks!  Insert the “Its not much but its honest work” meme.  We are turning a small profit and I am looking forward to building on it in week 4! Underdogs and unders have been extremely profitable through the first 3 weeks. Dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%).  There are a couple of things I want to mention related to this incredible start; first, when betting underdogs, in particular short dogs, I advise putting a small portion of your bankroll on the money line. This is a great way to build extra bankroll and take advantage of plus money bets. Second, sports betting is not easy and trends are great for extra edges, but we have to be wary of regression. This is why sticking to a strategy is important. You’re going to ride some highs and lows, but trying to play both sides of the market is a recipe for disaster. I’m seeing some incredible value on dogs again this week so without further a due…

Seattle +3 at San Francisco:

This is a buy-low spot on Seattle as they are coming off of two losses in a row. Admittedly this line is a bit chalky with 72% of the bets and 77% of the money coming in on the Seahawks. I have this at +3.5 and my recommendation is to hold off and shop around for the hook if you can find it. That being said I am making it an official play +3. This is also a great spot to throw a bit of money on the money line currently at +130. First and foremost, this is a division game and I love taking division dogs. Division games provide an extra edge for underdogs because the teams are very familiar with one another, and GM’s build their teams to win divisions so they match up well regardless of record. I am betting on Russell Wilson in this one! He is 27-10 ATS (70%) as a road dog and 26-14-4 ATS (65%) off a loss. The extra edge is that he has never lost 3 games in a row in his entire career. I simply can’t pass up taking Wilson in a rare underdog spot.

Baltimore +1/ML at Denver:

Hopefully, you jumped on this one earlier in the week. I like Baltimore to win this game regardless, but the line is flipping and the Ravens will be the favorite before kickoff. This was an early week bet for me at Baltimore +1.5 and a little on the money line as well. I still like it here with Baltimore still showing as a slight dog. A small tidbit to mention when betting on this game. If the line flips and the spread is anything between a PK and -1.5 I would recommend looking at the money line instead of the spread. Even if that means paying a little more juice it protects you from losing the bet completely if Baltimore wins by 1. This is another chalky dog play with 74% of the bets and 80% of the money coming in on the Ravens. Ultimately, I think the Ravens were teased up when they opened as dogs, and are probably in a lot of money line parlays too. This explains the heavy action, but regardless I like other edges here outside of what the market is showing is the public play. Denver has been playing very well and Teddy Bridgewater has looked incredible, which is why now is the time to sell high on them. The Broncos look good, but then again look at the teams they have played; Giants, Jags, and Jets. The Ravens are a big step up in class compared to those teams. Harbaugh is another edge I like in this game. He is 58% as a road dog, including 4-1 with Lamar Jackson, but beyond that, he is significantly better than his counterpart Vic Fangio which could be the difference in what bookmakers are saying will be a coin flip game.

Minnesota +2 vs Cleveland:

I am back in my contrarian comfort zone with this pick. Minnesota is only getting 38% of the bets and 30% of the money this week when they play host to the Cleveland Browns. While Cleveland has the better record, they have not necessarily been the more impressive team. Sure, week 1 was a fight for the ages and for 3 quarters the Browns looks good, but ultimately, they came up short against Elite talent again. They followed up that disappointing loss with an uninspiring win against Houston and a drumming of the Chicago Bears; two severely bad teams that don’t earn them any merit from me. On the other hand, the Vikings are literally only a couple of plays away from starting 3-0. An OT loss to Cincinnati with a questionable fumble call and a missed field goal against Arizona in week 2. The fact that this game is in Minnesota makes all the difference. Mike Zimmer is 35-21-1 ATS (62.5%) at home and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) as a home dog.  Kirk Cousins has actually been playing very well and Dalvin Cook is looking to be back from injury. I don’t have faith that the Cleveland defense is complete enough to cover all the ways the Vikings can attack them. The only way I see this going south for the Vikings is if Cleveland jumps out to a big early lead.

Entering into week 4 and I want to change things up a bit. Moving forward, I am going to do a quick early week preview for some of the games I am liking early that week. Thursday night I will put my official drinkfive.com picks out. The goal is to dive a bit deeper each week into the strategies and trends I use to make my bets. I will also give plays or leans I have on each of these games outside of the official picks later in the week.

Last week we went 2-1 bringing our season record to a profitable 6-3 so far. Contrarian bettors have been on fire to start the season! Through the first 3 weeks, dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%). It’s a great start to the year, but if blindly following dogs and unders was all it took then we’d all be rich. I expect some regression at some point as the books get sharper with their lines and adjust. In the meantime, we stick to our contrarian roots to take advantage of extra value, but we also check off trends, systems, line movement, and any other edge we can find to make the best bet!

Note:  The spread number will always reflect based on the home team and does not represent my pick or play.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati -7.5 O/U 46:

The 2-1 Bengals host the 0-3 Jaguars in the week 4 Thursday Night matchup. This line opened at 7.5 and has pretty much stayed put since. The Bengals are getting 75% of the bets and 77% of the money and despite that lopsided betting we have yet to see major line movement. The lack of line movement is a classic line freeze, especially with the lopsidedness in betting, however this is a game I am not getting involved in from a spread perspective. The pros are all over Jacksonville and they have to be because 7.5 is a big number for any team in the NFL so it’s purely the value play. 

I do have this game in 4 separate teasers where I have Cincinnati teased down to -1.5. I also have a 1 unit bet on the under in this game as well. I got this at 46.5. The line opened at 47 and was bet down to 46.5 immediately, since then it has bounced around between 46.5 and 45.5. Bets and money are all favoring the over, but we see a dip in the line signaling reverse line movement. I am usually a fan of Thursday Night unders anyway because teams have less time to prepare, less time to heal up, and in general are off their normal routine.

Detroit at Chicago -3 O/U 42.5:

The early line opened Detroit +6 before being bet down to +3.5 by Sunday night. I am kicking myself for not jumping on this one early!  Detroit is taking the bets (78%) and the money (94%) early in the week which is what has led to the continued drop in the line. I even see a couple of 2.5’s on the board as of writing this. This is a divisional game and with that comes a built-in familiarity between the teams. The first goal for every NFL team is to win their division, so regardless of personnel or coaching changes these teams are built to compete with the teams in the division. This is usually something I feel I can take advantage of with divisional game underdogs. The bottom line in this one comes down to the very simple fact that Detroit is better coached. The Bears are at home, and they are coming off of an embarrassing loss, and we don’t know who the QB will be yet so I am laying off until later in the week.

I lean Detroit on this one at anything +3 or better. While they are 0-3 this season they have shown more than I think most of us expected to see this season. I think Matt Nagy has lost the locker room, while Detroit continues to fight hard in some tough early season games. This is a game I can see Detroit winning outright so I am also going to track the ML odds and sprinkle a little on it when I feel like I am getting my best value.

Cleveland at Minnesota +2 O/U 52:

This game is similar to the Carolina Dallas game in terms of my excitement level to bet it this week. This line opened with Cleveland favored at -1 and has since been bet up to 2, and even some 2.5’s. Cleveland has 70% of the bets and 90% of the money. To me this is purely a week 3 overreaction to Cleveland handling a very bad Chicago team and having the better record. Minnesota’s losses are to the Cardinals and the Bengals, both teams have winning records early in this season, and I do not think the Vikings are getting credit yet for how good those teams may be this season. The value here is too good to pass up; this game should be closer to a pick’em. If you want to feel better about this bet, throw Minnesota into a teaser bet and stretch that number across TWO key numbers in 3 and 7!

As I was writing this I grabbed Minnesota +2.5 because I don’t see any chance that the books move to this to 3 at any point this week. I also have Minnesota in a couple of teaser plays.

Kansas City at Philadelphia +7 O/U 54.5:

This one stinks, but this is a great example of how overreaction can create inflated value. The line on this game opened at 6.5 Sunday afternoon and bet down to 5.5 by Sunday night after the Chiefs lost, then hovered around 6 for most of Monday before jumping to 7 and 7.5 after the Eagles poor performance on Monday Night Football. The betting is predictably lopsided with KC grabbing 87% of the tickets and 98% of the money. I have a feeling a big part of the money coming in is in the form of teasers on KC. I have also teased the Chiefs down to 1.5-point favorites. I just don’t see a world where Mahomes loses 3 games in a row, not yet anyway. That being said, the Chiefs inability to cover the spread, slow start, and a big number on this game has me leaning Eagles early in the week. It’s a disgusting play, I know. 

Right now, this is only a lean to the Eagles and I would need to get it at 7.5 at least. I do have the Chiefs -1.5 in a couple of teasers already locked in. I have no love or opinion for the total in this one.

Carolina at Dallas -4.5 O/U 50.5:

Both the Panthers and the Cowboys remain undefeated ATS through the first 3 weeks of the season. Only one of them, barring a push, will leave week 4 remaining undefeated. This has been a crazy line to track and follow early in the week after opening early Sunday at 4 and jumping to 5.5 by Sunday night. The line has continued to bounce between 4 and 5 since. Bets are split 50/50, but the money is favoring Dallas with 67%. Typically, early week money is something that signals sharp action, which would be in favor of Dallas at this point. I am not making a play on this game yet, but I am heavily leaning Carolina in this game. Dallas is coming off a huge win on Monday Night Football against a division rival and is prime for a let down spot. Carolina has had extra rest and prep time, playing in last weeks Thursday night game, and have the top ranked defense in DVOA.

This number has been bouncing and if it gets back to 5 I may jump on it regardless of the day of the week. Dallas always draws heavy public action, plus they are coming off of the big prime time win where everyone saw them play. Right now, this is Carolina or no play for me. I also like the under in this game. It has been bet up from 48.5 to 50.5 and the bets and money are on the over, however I think this is inflated and I am looking to catch the high number before it dips back down again. No plays made yet, but this is a great betting game for week 4!

Seattle at San Francisco -3 O/U 52.5:

Both the Seahawks and the 49ers are coming off of a loss to NFC North teams and now face a division rival. You will come to know this about me, but I key into division matchup games immediately and I love division dogs! In this case especially we have a short division dog with a spread of 3 or less. This line opened at 3.5 and fell through the 3 to 2.5 Monday morning before settling at 3 (-115). Seattle is 1-2 while the 49ers are 2-1, which makes Seattle the more desperate team in this matchup. Russell Wilson is covering 65% of the time as a road dog in his last 33 games. Meanwhile, Shanahan is awful as a favorite going 8-19-1 (30%) in his last 28. If trends aren’t your thing, and you don’t like picking the highly bet (70% bets) and highly bought (78% of money) Seattle team, then consider the X and O’s; the 49ers run a man to man defensive scheme that is prime for Russ, Lockett, and Metcalf to pick apart.

I have a half unit bet on Seattle +3 -115 already in play. We will see what happens later in the week and if the opportunity presents itself to put the other half on them at +3 or better I will pull that trigger. This is a high total, but I see a high scoring game, I am just not sure if I can bet either way on this one confidently this early in the week.

Baltimore at Denver +1 O/U44.5:

It feels wrong to end with my last two picks being the “square” picks in terms of early week ticket and money count. Baltimore has seen 82% of bets and 88% of money since opening up at 1.5-point dogs on the road against the Broncos. I know Baltimore barely beat the Lions, if not for a record setting field goal by Justin Tucker, and the Broncos are 3-0, but let’s look at who these teams have each played. Baltimore lost in OT to the undefeated Las Vegas Raiders, beat the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, as previously mentioned. Denver has played the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets who are a combined 0-9 to start the season. I am far more willing to give the Ravens the benefit of the doubt for looking past the Lions after a huge win against a conference rival in week 2. Denver, on the other hand, doesn’t have anything near a signature win. The wrong team is favored and I would not be surprised to see this line close at a PK. 

This was my favorite bet early this week. I am on Baltimore +1.5, Baltimore +110 ML and I have them in a teaser play at +7 crossing the key number of 3 and landing on the key number of 7.

Bit of a rough week going 1-2 on the drinkfive best bets last week. Let’s look to bounce back in week 3 with a little bit more knowledge and some great trends to take advantage of. Underdogs regressed a little bit in week 2, however on the season dogs are an impressive 21-11 ATS. It’s still early in the season but there is a trend worth noting that is gaining some legs in the sports betting community; home field advantage does not seem to be as much of an advantage. Home teams are 16-16 straight up and 13-19 ATS through the first two weeks. What is eye opening, and worth tracking, is that home favorites are only 5-13 heading into week 3. 11 of the 16 games in week 3 have home favorites. High performing dogs plus underperforming home favorites; it’s a contrarian’s wet dream!

Miami +4.5 at Las Vegas:

The line for this game has been all over the place this week as both teams had questions regarding their quarterbacks. As of writing this the line is up to 4.5 and I am jumping on what I think is a severe over reaction. Miami got shut out last week and the Raiders are 2-0 so immediately there is contrarian value. Even though this line has bounced around due to injury concerns it opened at 5.5 and, even with clarity on the starting QB situation for both teams, it's down to 4.5. Despite having a backup QB start and only 26% of the tickets the line has never come close to going back to the original open of 5.5. I also see this as an overreaction play. Miami was shutout last week while there is suddenly, and embarrassingly, MVP talk surrounding Derek Carr after the Raiders 2-0 start. If that doesn’t scream over reaction I don’t know what does. The icing on top is Gruden’s 31% ATS record after multiple straight up wins.

Green Bay +3.5 at San Francisco:

There is some recent history between the Packers and the 49ers out in San Francisco. This will be the fourth meeting in 3 years at Levi’s Stadium. In 2019 the 49ers took care of business, while last year the Packers got their revenge. This is a rare popular dog with 63% of the bets coming in on the Packers and the line movement reflects that after dropping from 4 to its current line of 3. Tracking the line, I have seen what appears to be sharp buyback at 3, which is why I am recommending this pick at 3.5. As of writing this the line is juiced -120 to the favorite so I think there is a good chance 3.5 shows back up. There are a couple of trends that help tip the scales for me in this one too. Shanahan is only 22% (2-7 ATS) in his first game at home after coming off a multi-game road trip and he is only 31% ATS as a favorite in the last 27 games. Ultimately it would not surprise me to see Green Bay win this one outright, so of course I am going to take the points. San Francisco is dealing with tons of injuries and has not had a particularly confident win yet this season. Green Bay may have let the Lions stick around a bit longer than anticipated, but in the end, Aaron Rodgers did what future Hall of Famers do and found a way to confidently win the game with what was given to him. 

Tampa Bay -1.5 at Los Angeles Rams:

Tampa Bay is the public play and I am jumping on the bandwagon. There is a pro system that I like to follow on this one too; that is the dog to favorite system. Tampa Bay opened up as a +1.5 point road dog, however this line has been flipped and now Tampa is the -1.5 favorite. The dog to favorite system can be tricky, but ultimately it boils down to line movement and the public rarely moves lines, sharps move lines. The line currently sits at 1.5 and honestly, I am going to wait until the weekend to see if there is some buy back on the Rams now that it has moved so much. Aside from the line movement the Buccaneers are playing great football and are enjoying a 10 game winning streak dating back to last season. The Rams have looked good being led by Matt Stafford this year, but ultimately, they don’t have a signature win yet. Wins against Chicago and Indianapolis aren’t enough for me to fade the GOAT and reigning Super Bowl Champs. 

There is a profitable 0-2 ATS trend worth considering this week with 5 teams starting the season 0-2 ATS. Over the last 5 seasons teams that start 0-2 ATS are 26-12 ATS in week 3. Washington, New York Jets, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Atlanta all fit the trend this week. I could make an argument for Atlanta +3 at the New York Giants and Washington is clearly the sharp play at Buffalo after opening +9 and being bet down to +7/+7.5. Kansas City joining that list is honestly what makes the Chiefs Chargers game tough for me. KC has been bad ATS for longer than 2 games and ultimately, I do think the Chargers have value at 6.5, so do the books apparently who are not moving the line to the key number of 7 despite 71% of the bets and 79% of the money on the Chiefs.