I am a co-founder and the editor of drinkfive.com. In order to stave off fantasy football insanity, Dave and I have branched out to cover a variety of interests. When I'm not knee deep in wikipedia pages, I like to hang out at breweries or a disc golf course (especially both in the same day). FSWA Member for 5+ years.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
45.9 QB Rating
Tom Brady had an abysmal QB rating in Sunday’s game, his lowest rated game since 2006, although his Week 16 game last year against Buffalo when he put up a 48.3 rating is close. This is trying to develop into a division rivalry, though Brady’s pure dominance against Buffalo (31-3), suggests otherwise. It’s been hard to find a division rival for the Patriots in the last couple decades. Still, Brady put up a whopping 4.7 points as the QB26 so far this week, so at least we know he’s human. What may not be human is the Patriots defense and special teams this season. They scored another touchdown this week, which means that they have 3 TDs vs just 1 yielded on defense (and another on special teams). At 86 points on the season, they are the 6th highest scoring “player” across all positions. They have 60% more points than the next highest scoring D/ST, the Bears – who have looked incredibly dominant.
15,021 Rush Yards and 1,326 Receptions
Congrats are due to Frank Gore and Larry Fitzgerald, who both reached milestone career stats on Sunday. Gore became just the 4th player to rush for over 15,000 yards – just north of 8.5 miles gained from scrimmage. We’ve constantly been wrong when predicting the demise of Frank Gore, so I just want to say that you rock, Frank! Keep proving us wrong, because this must be his last season, right? I suppose being the RB20 and putting up double digits each of the last 3 weeks begs to differ. Meanwhile, down in the desert, Larry Fitzgerald is now second all time on the career receptions list, just behind Jerry Rice, whom is 226 receptions ahead, which is probably 3 seasons away if Larry wants to make a run at it. Fitzgerald is the WR20 so far this year and has put up 42 points, while Gore has 42.10 points. Aside from the position they play, they’re basically the same player.
81 Yard Rushing…. non-Touchdown
Leonard Fournette broke free on Sunday for an 81 yard rumble, the longest play in the NFL this season that did not result in a touchdown. Still, Fournette wound up as the RB3 on the week so far, with 225 rushing yards and another 20 receiving yards tacked on to that. The real story in Jacksonville is Gardner Minshew II, clearly a future hall of famer. Maybe that’s just what I want to happen, but I’ve been a fan since he got in the game Week 1 and completed 13 consecutive passes to start his career. Minshew is the QB16 on the season, ahead of guys like Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers. He’s only owned in 11% of Yahoo leagues and has a floor of 16 points on the season – pretty good for a rookie who wasn’t supposed to start.
36.30 Fantasy Points
Your clubhouse leader in points in Week 4 is Nick Chubb, who had a ridiculous 183 yards from scrimmage to go along with 3 TDs. The Browns offense finally exploded for the first real time this season, beating the first place Ravens. The Browns, 2-2, are now tied with those same Ravens for first place in the AFC North. Chubb was a one-man wrecking crew, far outpacing his fellow fantasy star teammates, Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr., who both had a higher QB rating than anyone for Washington. Mayfield had his best game of the season, 16.78 points, which is basically Gardner Minshew’s floor. Minshew Mania, baby!
5 of the Top 10 QBs in Week 4
So far this week, 5 of the top 10 QBs this week, by fantasy points, are owned in 68% of leagues or fewer. This stat can only get crazier tonight if either Andy Dalton (36% owned) or Mason Rudolph (10% owned) can put up a 20-point game. Jameis Winston leads the way in both points and ownership, throwing for 4 TDs in a high scoring upset of the LA Rams where his team put up a franchise record 55 points. Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota and Joe Flacco all found themselves in the top 10. Between the 4 of them, their ownership overs around 27%. The top 10 QBs combined for a 4-6 record, so maybe we need to start picking, or at least streaming, QBs from bad teams instead of the good ones. Nah. I’ll take my chances with a Patrick Mahomes, this week’s QB12, who is on pace for 6000 yards this season. He didn’t even throw a TD this week despite his team putting up 34 points.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
5 Players over 30 Fantasy Points
Week 3 saw the return of big fantasy totals, with Russell Wilson leading the way at over 41 points. Unfortunately for Wilson, it was in a losing effort as most of the 4th quarter was basically garbage time for the Seahawks, who were trounced by the Brees-less Saints. We also saw newcomer Daniel Jones put up numbers we’ve never seen from a rookie before, throwing for over 300 yards and scoring 2 TDs through the air and another 2 on the ground. The big scoring numbers went deep, with the top 10 players all scoring at least 25 points, and the top 24 players all hitting at least the 20-point mark. This likely translated into fantasy success for lots of people, as the position players in the top 24 were all owned in at least 75% of Yahoo leagues.
4-4 Record
Rookie and Backup QBs were the big story this week, with 25% of NFL teams now having turned to either a rookie or a backup this season. Six of these guys were starting for the first time this week, and we saw Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen lead their teams to victories in games where they were not expected to do much of the heavy lifting. Jones and Allen were responsible for 4 TDs each, while Bridgewater played an admirable game manager. Elsewhere in the rookie watch this week, Kyler Murray did what he could, but was sacked 8 times and his first victory still eludes him. Next up is a home game against division rival Seattle – a softer target that you might have thought in the preseason. Finally, we’ve got our number 1 boy, Gardner Minshew II. Minshew led the Jaguars to victory in the annual Thursday night Crap Bowl sponsored by NFL network versus the Tennessee Titans. Minshew is playing so well that whispers of what to do with Nick Foles when he comes back have turned into full on serious conversations.
0.79 Points Per Target
49ers tight end George Kittle was part of the preseason “big 3” at his position, but he’s fallen quite short of that mark so far. In 3 games, he hasn’t topped more than 5.7 points, but is remarkably consistent, with 5.4 points in the other 2 games. His targets are there, he has 21 on the season, but he’s just not doing anything with them. This is very disappointing when you consider that only Travis Kelce (1.38 PPT) has made it into the top 10 from the preseason top 3. This means that lots of guys who you could have taken very late are doing quite well at the position. Leading the way at TE is Evan Engram, a high-volume guy who will probably maintain that role with his shiny new QB, leads all TEs in scoring with 39.70 points. The most efficient so far? That’d be Mark Andrews, who has a very nice 1.48 points per target, despite his very disappointing week 3 performance.
0.20 Fantasy Points
The once great John Ross has returned back to irrelevance, at least for one week. Going in to week 2, Ross led all WRs in fantasy points, but his 2 catches for 22 yards and a fumble have dropped him down to 7th overall at the position. He’s just behind DJ Chark, who is only owned in 41% of Yahoo leagues and will likely be this week’s hot WR pickup on the waiver wire. Chark has scored a TD in each of his first 3 games and is a clear favorite target of Gardner Minshew II. Elsewhere at WR, Davante Adams is having a very slow start to a season, which is surprising since the Packers are 3-0. Adams is averaging just 6.6 points per game and hasn’t found the end zone yet. Adams is lagging behind his usual pace of receptions and touchdowns since his 2016 breakout season, but his yards per game isn’t that terrible and his catch rate is as high as it’s ever been. Perhaps it’s just positive game script that’s keeping Adams from putting up big numbers. The Packers haven’t been challenged too much by their opponent’s offenses so far, so that’s translated into a quiet air attack so far this season. The Packers are 27th in pass attempts and passing yardage, which is bound to improve as the season goes on, so don’t fret, Rodgers and Adams owners.
0 Offensive TDs Allowed
The Patriots D/ST keeps putting up great performances, and it’s because their real-life defense has been stellar. Through 3 games, they have only allowed 3 points to opposing offenses, a field goal early in week 1. The D/ST has double digit points in each game so far this season, and a schedule with the Redskins, Giants, Jets and Browns coming up after this week’s meeting in Buffalo show that they have a decent shot at keeping this streak alive. In Week 3, the team did give up a pick-six and fumbled a punt in the end zone, both resulting in TDs for the Jets D/ST, who led the way with 16 points this week. The Jets have a bye coming up, so they are not useful just yet, but they have 3 TDs on the season and are tied for third in total points among all D/STs.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
2 Players over 30 points
This week, we had just two players break the 30-point mark. As I write this during the MNF game, I don’t expect anyone else to join this club. Everyone, however, expects Patrick Mahomes to be a prolific fantasy player, but they probably didn’t think all of his action to come in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson has been better than anyone expected this year. Following up a huge opening game with another big fantasy performance, he went to the ground this time. Jackson racked up 120 yards rushing on 16 carries, after just 6 yards on 3 caries last week. Jackson’s passing numbers weren’t as gaudy as Week 1, but perhaps the most important number is zero turnovers. We’re the real winners here though, these guys will match up in Week 3.
1 Player from the Top 10
After last week saw tons of no-names find their way to the top of the fantasy charts, this week only saw one player owned in single digit leagues make their way into the top wide receivers. Demarcus Robinson did his best Tyreek Hill impersonation, catching 6 balls for 172 yards and 2 TDs. Robinson’s 29.2 points was the third highest of the week, and he was basically a statistical error, having been started in “0%” of Yahoo leagues. I’m sure that number is going up for next week, especially since there weren’t a ton of really high scoring WRs. Only Julio Jones at 22.6 broke the 20-point mark, and Robinson more than doubled up the #10 WR, Marquise Goodwin. Again, while watching the MNF game, I don’t see anyone surpassing Robinson, or Goodwin for that matter. (Late edit: Odell Beckham Jr. did manage to join the 20-point club.)
34 Fantasy Points
Through 2 weeks, Mark Andrews is leading all tight ends in fantasy points, having put together two excellent games in a row. He’s caught 16 of his 17 targets, which has really helped out his QB, the aforementioned Lamar Jackson. His 220 yards are 6th in the league so far this season. With an ADP in the 14th round, he was a really great value for anyone who was planning on streaming tight ends this season. Travis Kelce is the only one of the big three drafted who is playing well. In fact, he’s got more points than George Kittle and Zach Ertz combined.
0 Points Allowed
The Patriots somehow improved on their 3 points allowed in Week 1 by pitching a shutout down in Miami. The hapless Dolphins could only manage 11 first downs in 13 drives, while giving up 43 points. On the season, the Patriots have now scored 76 points compared to just 3 given up. The Dolphins are on the opposite end of that spectrum, with just 10 points scored compared to 102 allowed. The Patriots D/ST managed 2 pick-sixes on Sunday, got the rare shutout bonus and tallied 7 sacks. The 37 points they scored is more than the season total for any kickers or tight ends, and led everyone in Week 2, technically.
2 QBs with 300+ Yards Passing
In Week 2, two QBs managed to throw for over 300 yards without throwing a touchdown. One is a QB on his way up, the other is a QB that could be on his way down, and at least along the way, they didn’t throw any picks. Cam Newton just didn’t look right on Thursday night, in this week’s first Heisman Trophy winner matchup. Newton disappointed owners with a piddly 11.32 points in a game that many had him pegged to do much better. There’s now whispers that Cam could be done in Carolina, as he just doesn’t look right. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray, who played in the second battle of Heisman winners, is still working things out by throwing the hell out of the ball. He has 94 pass attempts through 2 games and has passed the 300-yard mark in each of those games. Murray is looking decent to start the season, but he needs to put together 4 good quarters in a game and throw some TDs for us fantasy players.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
18 QB ADP
If you combine the top 5 QBs so far this week – Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes and Case Keenum – you have an average ADP of QB 18. So much for expert draft advice, right? All 5 players scored at least 28 points, 3 TDs and 300 passing yards. All of them, except for Mahomes, were not expected to be fantasy studs, and were not drafted to be a main starter. Lamar Jackson is the highest of the remaining 4 at QB14, and he had the best game out of all of them. Jackson managed to log the very first perfect QB rating game in franchise history. Even more impressive, Red Zone channel took a break from a competitive game just to show us his first incompletion. I suppose this all goes to show that drafting QBs early in a single QB league is mostly pointless. Case in point – Andy Dalton had over 400 yards passing. This is why I like superflex leagues!
6 of the top 25 Fantasy Players
Waiver wires will be hopping this week, with people racing to pick up all of the forgotten, unknown and surprise players who had big games in Week 1. 6 of the top 25 fantasy performers so far in Week 1 are owned in 10% of leagues or less. Everyone in the top 25 scored over 20 points this week, and you’re sure to see names like DJ Chark (2% owned), Phillip Dorsett (4% owned) and John Ross (9% owned) pop up on waiver articles, not to mention Marquise Brown, who’s only owned in 31% of Yahoo leagues. A few QBs wind up in this niche as well, like Case Keenum, Andy Dalton and Marcus Mariota. They are a bit less relevant, however you may want to consider picking up one of them if you relied on Cam Newton, Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield in Week 1, all of whom scored 12.4 points and under.
10 WRs owned in 100% of Leagues
It was a rough Sunday for the top end of the fantasy world. In Yahoo, there are 10 wide receivers who are owned in 100% of leagues (2 more play on Monday night), and their average points scored was a meager 8.1. Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper were the only ones with a respectable game of 100 yards and 1 TD. 6 of the 10 players were under 8 points. In fact, if you expand this field to the top 25 by ownership percentage, only one player, TY Hilton, broke the 20-point barrier. The average total of the top 25 was still only 8.9, so it’s not like there was a lot of help among all the players who were drafted to actually help you win games. Who was helping win games? 6 of the top 10 point scorers at WR are owned in 50% of leagues or less, with 4 of those players in just the single digits.
4 Rookies Over 100 Receiving Yards
There were 4 rookies who managed to break the 100-yard mark on Sunday. Marquise Brown did it early after just two TD catches of 47 and 83 yards in the first quarter of his game. Titans Rookie A.J. Brown had 3 catches, but one was for 47 and the another was for 51 yards. OK, so he managed to just match the 100-yard mark and not pass it, but hey, it’s nice to finally see a deep threat in Tennessee, something that Marcus Mariota probably has never had. Terry McLaurin of the Redskins led his team in receiving with 125 yards. You may remember him from me telling you to draft him as a sleeper, just before I picked the Redskins to have fewer victories than the Giants. Rounding out the rookie group is T.J. Hockenson, who had 6 for 131 and a TD, leading his team in receiving and leading all tight ends (so far) this week in fantasy with 19.1 points. An honorable mention goes to Devin Singletary, who had 98 yards from scrimmage and averaged nearly 11 yards per touch. If he had gotten more than a measly 9 touches, he certainly would have broken the century mark.
17 Players at 100 Rec Yards
So far in Week 1, 17 players have matched or eclipsed the 100 receiving yards mark. Only 5 of those players are owned in 90% or more of Yahoo leagues. All these players average out for an ownership of just 55%. Does this mean anything? Not really, but it illustrates that the NFL is usually chaos, and Week 1 doubly so. Early season waivers are as important as ever this year, but it’s also important to remember to be patient with the players that you drafted high. Many of these performances are flukes, some of them are the start of trends, and some of them are introductions to future superstars. If I could tell you exactly which is which, I’d be in Vegas getting banned from various sports books. I’ll just leave you with this last nugget – Kyler Murray bringing his team back to get a tie with the Lions is the best result that a rookie QB has had in Week 1 since David Carr got a win in 2002. Let’s hope for all our sakes that Murray can be better than Carr’s career 29% win rate.