Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

In typical The Leftovers fashion, any answers that we may think we're getting closer to actually just lead to more questions. Now I've been a fan of Damon Lindelof's work since his Lost days so this is mostly expected, but it does seem as though we're getting a constant stream of open-ended story arcs. The Guilty Remnant, Holy Wayne, Kevin Garvey Sr.'s (and now Dean's) mysterious voices, a specific issue of National Geographic, etc all twist and turn in an endless spin cycle of exposition. "We'll get to all of these things in time," The Leftovers seems to say, "but loose ends don't need to be tied up in the middle of a season."

Kevin Garvey is now becoming explicitly aware of his 'blackouts' and this awareness may drive him further into either aggressive, self-defeating behavior or perhaps (and I'm hoping) into accepting the unknown - specifically what his father, Kevin Garvey Sr. has been pushing him towards. Or maybe those are both actually the same path and there is no way out for the Chief. In "Cairo", Kevin falls asleep in his bed only to wake up at an old cabin - apparently some place that Kevin used to frequent when he was younger - with Dean. He discovers Patti tied up inside and we learn shortly afterwards that (according to Dean) Kevin had gone out, gotten drunk, kidnapped Patti and brought her here. 

The always conflicted Kevin Garvey tries to do what he feels is the right thing and let Patti go, but everything (and everyone) works against him. Patti maintains that she will report everything that happened if she is set free (which would certainly ruin his professional career and strain all of his relationships), and Dean physically restrains Kevin and tells him to go back to sleep so that the real Kevin (the one that supposedly spearheaded all of this craziness in the first place) might reappear. There is a lot of information to digest within these scenes at the cabin. First, the painting of the deer in the cabin closely resembles one that is actually in the National Geographic issue so prominently featured in the last episode. Second, Dean seems aware of the fact that Kevin doesn't fully grasp the situations that he continually finds himself in (to what extent, I'm not quite sure), and we also see Dean talking to "voices" at one point, much like Kevin Garvey Sr. One new question that presents itself here then is are those voices the same or are Kevin's father and Dean working on opposite "sides"? The way the show presents this information lends credibility to a few theories that I've heard about Dean being guided by "evil" and Kevin Garvey Sr. by "good". Or is it the other way around? Third, Kevin finds himself in the woods full of damning evidence that he has been here many times before - his shirts are bloody and dirty, hanging from the trees surrounding a well-used campfire. We also see quite a few dirty, used work boots - does this mean that Kevin may be leading a group of people, perhaps the same group that stoned Gladys earlier this season? That guy needs some sleep, for sure.

Something that I touched on in a previous review was that Patti and Gladys shared an "I'm ready" moment at the beginning of the "Gladys" episode earlier this year before she was stoned to death. In "Cairo", Patti eventually tells Kevin that Gladys had agreed to being martyred (presumably in that scene) for the cause and that she knew that her time was up as well. It makes you wonder if Gladys is somehow connected to what seems to be happening to Kevin as well as Dean and Kevin Garvey Sr. Certainly she knows more than she lets on. Going back to the stoning, something that bothers me is that Patti is talking when she is near death - begging her assailants to stop - perhaps this is just a natural reaction to being inches away from a cruel and violent demise, but one would think she would remain stoic if she had readily agreed. More than likely, then, she didn't agree so readily or there was more at stake. After entering the cabin to find Patti gasping for air under a plastic bag (Dean's doing), Kevin makes a decision to sacrifice his career and possibly a lot more by cutting Patti's bonds to set her free. Patti will have none of this, as it seems she has already set much of this in motion (including a larger Guilty Remnant plot to dress up Loved Ones versions of the departed in their stolen clothing for some kind of shocking demonstration), and kills herself with a shard of glass from Dean and Kevin's earlier physical confrontation. 

Here are Patti's parting words from a William Yeats poem called He Bids His Beloved Be At Peace:

I HEAR the Shadowy Horses, their long manes a-shake,

Their hoofs heavy with tumult, their eyes glimmering white;

The North unfolds above them clinging, creeping night,

The East her hidden joy before the morning break,

The West weeps in pale dew and sighs passing away,

The South is pouring down roses of crimson fire:

O vanity of Sleep, Hope, Dream, endless Desire,

The Horses of Disaster plunge in the heavy clay:

Beloved, let your eyes half close, and your heart beat

Over my heart, and your hair fall over my breast,

Drowning love's lonely hour in deep twilight of rest,

And hiding their tossing manes and their tumultuous feet.

Yikes, Patti. Thanks for the parting poetry - this seems to be referring to the four horsemen of the apocalypse while also expressing a new awakening (via the sunrise). I suppose Patti is alluding to what is about to happen in Mapleton (and perhaps across all of the chapters of the Guilty Remnant). Whatever the Guilty Remnant actually does with the fabricated bodies of the departed, it will surely be the most impactful thing that they have accomplished and truly have a lasting effect. We are already seeing more and more distraught people joining up with the Guilty Remnant (including Jill, although I think her intentions may be different). They may need to buy some more real estate.

As for Kevin, how can he do the noble thing now? Even with the best of intentions, he is obviously leading some kind of double life and exposing all of that (or even part of it) to everyone would only result in punishment for him. From the very beginning we see that Kevin is a good force in this town, and one of the only people who seem to have their head on straight (besides what happens when he falls asleep and/or blacks out, obviously), so is it better for him to plunge straight into chaos or give himself up to be locked away like his old man? The events of the next episode leading up to the season finale will no doubt be filled with fire and brimstone, and personally I dig it. Although obviously about the struggle between good and evil, The Leftovers exists in a time and place where morality itself is skewed, so who knows and who is to say which is which?

"Don't wake up. Don't anybody wake up. Go to sleep.. go back to fucking sleep!"

After the frantic pace of recent episodes "Gladys" and "Guest", you would think that The Leftovers would come up for some air. Quite the opposite. With only three episodes left in the first season, "Solace for Tired Feet" brings no solace at all to viewers and in fact continues to take us further under the current as the events in Mapleton start to intertwine and come to a head. This latest episode starts off with Jill and a group of her friends trying to see who can last the longest locked inside an old refrigerator in the woods. Some pretty terrific games that these kids are into, huh? Well, Jill breaks the record but the handle breaks off when her friends try to let her out and chaos ensues. Enter the character that perhaps we least expect to see at this moment, Kevin Garvey Sr., who has apparently broken out of the secure psychiatric facility that he was voluntarily remanded to soon after the Sudden Departure. 

In contrast to the previous two episodes, "Solace for Tired Feet" has an expanded focus but it does still tend to orbit around Kevin Garvey. Whether we're talking about his budding relationship with Nora Durst (one of the bright spots in the series so far), the strange chemistry with Jill's friend Aimee (Emily Meade), the jumbled and somewhat-tied-to-reality sequences with Dean (Michael Gaston) or the unsettling conversations with his father, Kevin is unwittingly the nucleus of all of this chaos. And that's not even mentioning his ties to the Guilty Remnant or the mess that his son Tom is wrapped up in.

Speaking of Tom Garvey, we learn (somewhat shockingly) that he is just one of many spokes in Holy Wayne's plans. Not only does he discover that there are other people like himself who are doing what Wayne has told them to, but apparently there are also other girls just like Christine (young, asian and pregnant?). I think that we as viewers of the show are supposed to be in the dark about Wayne and his motivations and abilities (supernatural or otherwise), but he has certainly been portrayed this far as an unsavory character which is very much at odds with the talent that he somehow possesses. Christine may have been having another vision when she was babbling phrases like 'there are spiders underwater", and I'm sure that we'll find some parallel to this later in the series, but the most important thing that we can garner from this episode is that Wayne has more than one baby and they are being referred to as 'The Bridge'. For whatever reason, Wayne seems to be in hiding and trying to make the money last until these babies have been born. This may be coming pretty soon, as at the end of the episode Christine is revealed to have given birth to her daughter.

Throughout the season so far, we have seen so many references to Kevin's possibly psychotic state (disappearing bagels, missing shirts, Dean, etc.) but at every turn he proves himself to be sane after all. In this episode, we see the real, tangible result of what Kevin perceives as a dream in the bite on his hand and the dog he has tied up outside. Aimee seems to have had a whole conversation with Kevin while he was blacked out, or having an episode - and in fact I'm not sure that Aimee is exactly what she appears to be. We haven't learned much about her and her back story but she seems to know some things about Kevin that he doesn't know about himself. Odd. Anyway, the whole episode culminates in a conversation that Kevin and his father have at a familiar diner.. for some reason an old issue of National Geographic seems to be some kind of token for Kevin to accept a new reality that may be happening to him and already happened to his father. Are things exactly as they seem, or could everything be completely different? Although Kevin does not want to, he ultimately does seem to accept that he has some new kind of purpose or connection waiting for him to explore when he grabs the magazine (not at the diner, but one that had been ordered by his daughter at their house on behalf of Kevin Garvey, Sr.).

Good luck to the citizens of Mapleton as things play out over the next couple of weeks. Things are about to get even crazier than they already are.. and that was already pretty nuts!

Every year when it gets close to draft time, websites are flooded with articles about who you should and shouldn't pick for your fantasy team. The thing is, unless you're in an auction league and have the ability to take a player at any time based on a value that you assign, you can really only target certain players that have a perceived value to you greater than where they are currently being taken in the draft (in other words, their ADP or Average Draft Position). It's my goal in the next few weeks to go through some fantasy relevant players at each position and provide a short argument for why they should be targeted above their current ADPs. Remember, if the team managers in your league have above-average football intelligence, you will likely have to select these players (and any others you have your eye on) several picks earlier than their ADPs. For the purposes of this article we'll be using the ADP statistics from recent mock drafts (10-team standard league) at Fantasy Football Calculator (a tool that we often use) and you can access that updated data here: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=standard&year=2014&teams=10&view=graph&pos=all.

Kelvin Benjamin

(Current ADP - 12.08)

I know, I know. I'm supposed to follow my own advice and temper my expectations for rookies. Especially for rookies like Kelvin, who has had problems in the past specific to dropped passes and a limited route tree. What you can't deny, however, are the favorable comparisons to guys like Alshon Jeffery and Plaxico Burress. Benjamin's measurables are immense: 6'5", 240lbs, 35-inch arms and a 4.5ish 40. Yikes. I'm going to be looking closely at Benjamin's play in upcoming preseason games to gauge his comfort level with the routes he is being asked to run, but from training camp reports we are hearing nothing but great things. In fact, it appears as though he has not yet dropped a ball at all. Finally, Benjamin looks to have no real competition for the starting WR role in Carolina. That said, there is a little talent there in Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant and of course Greg Olsen (who will likely end up leading the team in receptions). In fact, I tend to think that the Panthers' receiving core is actually better than it was last year.. Steve Smith showed a large decline in healthy game-to-game production last year (not to mention that his 5'9" frame is a little small for today's NFL) and Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn have never been standouts (and are easily replaced by Cotchery and Avant in the short term). Bottom Line: the rumors of Cam Newton's demise have been greatly exaggerated and adding a freakishly athletic receiver to the mix should only be a boon to his numbers. While I'm not predicting a top 20 season for Benjamin, I strongly believe that he will finish inside the top 40 wide receivers (if only because of his immediate use in red-zone situations) which would be the right value to select him in the 10th or 11th rounds.

Marvin Jones

(Current ADP - 13.06)

Marvin Jones stunned the fantasy world last season in his 2nd year when he scored 10 total TDs (including 4 vs. NYJ in Week 8). Even taking out that game (which could be considered a statistical outlier) he improved on his rookie year production by 500+ yards and 5 TDs. And all of this while sharing time on the field with Mohamed Sanu. Although Jones only just came off the PUP list (he had an ankle injury that was not considered serious), he looks to be locked in as the starting receiver for 2014 opposite A.J. Green. This absence from training camp could explain the current low draft position, but don't let it fool you - he will surely be on the rise over the next few weeks as news continues to trickle out from Cincinnati. Most likely, Jones should average between 4-6 receptions per game (I'm predicting around 70 total) which should increase his total receiving yards toward 1000. In other words, even if he doesn't match the 10 TD's from last year his stock should still hover around the same value (he finished 2013 as the #24 WR overall in standard scoring leagues). Even a slight regression in TD's from 2013 then would still put him at the bottom of the top 30 WR's. We're talking about guys here like Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Kendall Wright, etc. and all of those guys are being drafted right now between rounds 7 and 10. With an ADP of 13.06, Marvin Jones is a prospect that is still being undervalued in rounds 10-12. Wait as late as you can to pick him up.. but not too late! Bottom Line: playing behind A.J. Green will only continue to help Jones.. watch out for a rising ADP over the next few weeks and catch him while you can.

Mike Wallace

(Current ADP - 8.01)

Reports from training camp are saying that Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace are still struggling to find a good chemistry on deep routes. Well, just remember that this is still preseason and words fly around like footballs this time of year. Wallace performed better in the last six games of the 2013 season than earlier in the year which makes it a little easier to trust him as a solid fantasy commodity, and new OC Bill Lazor (formerly working as the QB coach under Chip Kelly on the Eagles) has vowed to use Wallace all over the field rather than simply as a deep threat. We know that Wallace is fast and can be productive, and on this team there should be a fair amount of playing catch-up as the Miami defense finished the season in the bottom half of the NFL. Wallace will fill the Desean Jackson role in Lazor's offense and whether or not he and Tannehill are hanging out on their days off, he will exceed his production from 2013. I Expect Wallace to at least more closely approach if not get back to the numbers he had as an instrumental part of the Steelers offense (1,000+ yards, 8+ TDs) which would put him squarely into the top 20 receivers when we look back on the 2014 season. Finally, the Dolphins actually have the most favorable schedule for WRs (calculated here: http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm?type=e&sortby=WR from 2013 season data). Bottom Line: Mike Wallace had a hiccup of a season due to a few reasons (change of teams, coaching staff, new quarterback, etc) but despite that he still finished as a top 30 receiver.. look for his return to form this year.

Kenny Stills

(Current ADP - 12.10)

Last season Kenny Stills was a one-trick pony, but oh what a nice trick it was. As a rookie, Stills led the league in yards per reception (20.0) and had only one drop while finding the end zone five times. With the departure of Lance Moore and Darren Sproles, there are a lot of targets (143) that need to be filled. There has been talk at camp about Nick Toon and Brandin Cooks, but they are really fighting for the third spot, with Stills solidly in the second spot as long as he's healthy. He will at least split those 143 targets, giving Stills a solid 70+ this year. Taking into consideration Stills' low drop rate, a 60 reception season should net him over 1100 yards. It will look a lot like DeSean Jackson's second and third seasons (2009 & 2010). Stills has the potential to be a solid WR3, especially with a QB like Drew Brees under center. Bottom Line: with an ADP of 12.10, Stills holds fantastic value even a round or two earlier.

Markus Wheaton

(Current ADP - not drafted in standard leagues)

Of course it's difficult to put faith in a guy that only recorded 64 yards in his rookie campaign. That's what these sort of articles are all about though, right? First, Markus Wheaton is a prototypical burner receiver with a 4.4 40 time and good hands - the reports out of training camp this year have been ridiculous, to put it lightly. "He can be that guy that teams look at in the first four games and are like, 'Who is that dude running past people?'" said Ike Taylor, who's been going against Wheaton at practices (from Rotoworld - http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/8406/markus-wheaton). Second, the Steelers lost Emmanuel Sanders to the Broncos in the off-season and did not look to replace him from outside sources (they drafted a developmental project WR in Martavis Bryant and picked up Lance Moore (possible split slot duty and Cotchery replacement) and Darrius Heyward-Bey who will provide some depth at the position). It was known last year that Wheaton would have had a bigger role if it wasn't for the two broken fingers that sidelined him for the majority of the 2013 season and it appears that the starting role opposite Antonio Brown is his to lose now. With the Steelers going no-huddle and after a very impressive offensive resurgence in the final weeks last year, it's pretty ridiculous that Wheaton is not even being taken off the board in standard redraft leagues. That said, the story here is that not many people who are casual fans of the game are familiar with the name. Bottom Line: Look for Wheaton's ADP to *exist* in a few weeks, but be sure to draft him in the late rounds for a value pick that could prove to be solid WR4 production. 

Although I might not share their opinions exactly, quite a few of my friends and colleagues have balked a little at the way that The Leftovers has presented itself over the course of the season so far. Fortunately, the latest episode, "Guest", seems to buck that trend and show us a side of the HBO series that I've been waiting to see. Among the grief-laden population of Mapleton and the thick fog of violence and depression I've been most enjoying the moments of levity and real life that pop up when you least expect them to. Ok, ok - The Leftovers is not a comedy, at least not in the familiar sense, but it is noted that Tom Perotta's novel (that the series is based on) was originally penned more along those lines than what it eventually turned out to be. Personally, I think that a lot of that seems to be seeping into the drama now.. albeit between some particularly hard to watch scenes (e.g., Gladys's death by stoning) that tend to root themselves a bit more firmly in our minds as we watch the show.

Anyway, "Guest" continues the trend started by Damon Lindelof back in his Lost days of focusing episodes on only one character and thusly delving far deeper into the character's psyche and motivations than can be accomplished over the course of a normal program that takes turns with multiple characters being the focal point. So, Nora Durst.. we've known for some time now that she has lost almost her entire immediate family (those particular odds being one in 128,000 apparently) to the Sudden Departure, harbors feelings of terrible guilt and remorse, carries a revolver with her in her purse and has a brother - the Reverend Matt Jamison. This episode, though, dives headlong into her day-to-day life - specifically into what are probably the most important few days that she has had since the day when her family disappeared. Through her work, Nora is invited to a conference to be a representative of the Department of Sudden Departures and speak on a panel. She had done this the previous year as well but this time would end up much more chaotic and ultimately rewarding for her.

But before we get there, it would certainly be remiss not to mention what happened before Nora left for the conference (and apparently at least one time previous to that as well). We knew Nora was slightly off the beaten path but for her to hire people to shoot her in the chest while wearing a Kevlar vest - just to experience something close to peacefulness through death.. yeah, crazy. But so is everyone else in this world - just look at the game that the High School kids were playing in the first episode - Fuck, Burn or Choke? Really? Yeah so we as viewers do need to understand as has been pounded into our heads by the first several episodes, that this new world in the wake of the Sudden Departure is an awful one.

During the conference, Nora runs into all sorts of trials and tribulations. First, someone has taken her badge and we find out later that there is a woman who impersonated Nora Durst to make some kind of a statement.. conspiracy theories! Who would have though it? We definitely need more of this going forward in The Leftovers. Second, Nora meets a married guy who works for the company called Loved Ones (whose commercial we see at the beginning of the episode). A little alcohol, drugs and craziness later, Nora has actually had a good time.. and in the meantime we are treated to some of the best scenes that The Leftovers has ever shared with us onscreen. Thank God for martinis and drugs that are as yet unapproved by the FDA. 

The whole theme of this episode is change. Nora was really one of the people most affected by the Sudden Departure and she showed it. From the unchanged paper towel roll to the trips to the grocery store, Nora was attempting to live life as though nothing had changed when she absolutely knew that everything had. Internal conflict at its best. Because Nora didn't have her badge, she was given one that said 'Guest' instead. During the party scenes, everyone only knew her as 'Guest'.. and she loved it. Separating her own individual identity from the poor woman that had lost her entire family only really happened, though, when she ended up meeting with Holy Wayne. Through someone at the conference she was drawn to an apartment building in a bad part of town, asked to pay $1,000 and then admitted to see Wayne. Two things: Wow, Nora has no problem parting with her money, huh? Also, Wayne's super power is hugs. There are two theories here, I suppose.. either Wayne is the most empathetic character ever in a TV series since Deanna Troy on Star Trek or he has some sort of power that lets him take people's grief from them - supernatural or otherwise. 

Bottom line is that now Nora is bereft of her long-held feelings of depression and grief. The Leftovers makes sure that we know.. showing us scenes of the teacher that she was previously stalking (because she allegedly was having an affair with her husband) and grocery shopping for only herself and no longer for the people that have disappeared from her life. I have to say, this episode was my favorite of the season and I'm really hoping that the trajectory of the show continues. The fact that I can go from absolute horror at the beginning of one episode to a satisfied grin at the end of the next speaks volumes about the quality of this series. Can't wait for the next one!