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Week three was relatively safe for everyone in the pool, with all the big favorites taking care of business. About 15% of the league were resurrected by Saint Justin Tucker's NFL record 66 yard field goal as time expired, but who could root against that kick? The Chiefs loss against the Chargers knocked out 18 for the highest number of the week bringing the total survivors down to 1064. Already 199 people have moved on this week with that actually exciting Thursday night game, where the Bengals pulled out a comeback win with a game-ending field goal. That may have been the best spot all year to play Cincinnati and they almost punished you for it. After watching my first Jaguars game, I don't see a winless season in their future.

I decided to use my two picks on the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. The Bills are the biggest favorite of the week opening at -16.5 against the quarterbackless Houston Texans. Buffalo looks to be rolling now ever since their week one slip up against the Steelers. Houston has no chance against any of the better teams in the league until they upgrade their QB. 

The Titans are my second choice for the week. There is no need for concern about them not having any wide receivers, they are playing the Jets. The Titans will get plenty of receptions on defense to make up for the absence of Brown and Jones. Zach Wilson must be ecstatic for Justin Fields' start for the Bears so he is no longer the biggest embarrassment at QB so far. Titans defense and a heavy dose of Derick Henry should be all it takes.

Good luck everyone! And Drink Five!

ENTRY #1           ENTRY #2

RAMS                 BUCCANEERS

BUCCANEERS      BROWNS

BRONCOS           CARDINALS

BILLS                 TITANS

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

5 Rushing TDs

Nearly a quarter into the 2021 season, the league’s leader in rushing touchdowns is certainly not someone anyone expected. Sam Darnold now has 5 total rushing TDs on the season after back-to-back 2 TD games. He’s also got 5 total passing TDs, but his two INTs yesterday cost his team their perfect record.  But hey, fantasy football isn’t all about wins and losses. Darnold was the QB1 on the week, just edging out Patrick Mahomes and his 5 passing TDs. Darnold is now the QB5 on the season, just a fraction of a point behind Tom Brady for 4^th. Darnold is a game manager who just happens to be scrambling into the end zone at the right moments. His 20 carries for 58 yards on the year do not inspire confidence in his rushing abilities. My advice to you is to package Darnold in some sort of trade where you can sell him at his highest value of the season, especially before Christian McCaffrey comes back and the ground game takes over the Panthers' offense once again.

32.1 Fantasy Points

Cordarrelle Patterson is continuing his spectacular season. The 2013 first-round pick has bounced around the league for 9 years, and now finally on his 5^th team, it seems like they have unlocked his offensive abilities. Patterson finished Week 4 as the RB1 on the week, and sits as the RB2 on the season, behind only Derrick Henry (who is on pace for nearly 2,700 yards from scrimmage). Patterson’s 5 TDs is the highest total he’s had since his rookie season (and tied with Sam Darnold for the league lead). His 45 touches and 354 yards from scrimmage are both more than halfway to career highs. It’s pretty rare that a player can blow away their season-best stats 9 years into their career. He’s still only owned in 70% of Fleaflicker leagues, so I imagine that the rest of the leagues will be frantically scrambling on the waiver wire to pick him up.

4 of the Top 6 Quarterbacks are Free Agents

In fantasy football, we’re used to positional volatility. We might expect a bunch of the top-scoring kickers, defenses, or tight ends to not be on any team in a given week. What we generally don’t expect is that to be true for the quarterback position. Using our drinkfive.com fantasy league for reference, we find that 4 of the top 6 QBs in week 4’s scoring were all free agents. This includes the week’s top scorer, the aforementioned Sam Darnold (56%), Matt Ryan (76%), Taylor Heinicke (34%), and Daniel Jones (60%). We also find the most owned QB, Tom Brady (98%) put up a whopping 11.06 points, despite 43 passing attempts. So, it’s sometimes a crapshoot, even at the most consistent position in the game. That’s what makes fantasy football so much fun (and aggravating), isn’t it?

10% League Ownership

Want some positional volatility? The tight end position has it in droves. This week’s top scorer, C.J. Uzomah (another candidate for a late-career break-out) is owned in only 10% of Fleaflicker leagues. His monster game on Thursday night helped propel the Bengals to victory. 5 receptions for 95 yards and 2 TDs gave him a total of 24 fantasy points, almost 6 points more than the next highest scorer. Among the top 5 scoring TEs so far this week, their ownership caps out at 58% for Dalton Shultz. The average ownership is only 29%. When we look at the TEs who are owned in at least 90% of leagues (we must exclude Gronk and Waller, who did not or have not played yet), we find that they only scored an average of 6.6 points. This is going to be the season that benefits QB and TE streamers the most.

8-100 Yard Rushing Performances

With all of this craziness, let’s check out a position that’s all chalk, shall we? This week, there were 8–100-yard rushing performances by running backs. Every single one of those players are owned in at least 92% of Fleaflicker leagues. In fact, if you expand that list to include all-purpose yards, there were 13 such games by running backs. All but one, Cordarrelle Patterson (who led in both AP yards – the guy Is still returning kicks, and points) are owned in at least 89% of leagues. This consistency at the running back position is probably the most predictable thing in all of fantasy football this year. Even the WR position has some wacky stuff going on, like Randall Cobb’s 21.4 points, good for WR6 on the week and helping exactly nobody since he’s only owned in 24% of leagues. This is certainly an important week to work the waiver wire!

OK…so…about last week…

Well, now seems like a good idea to remind everyone that most season-long pools will allow you to remove your lowest scoring week from the total amount.

I didn’t really think we would have to look into that feature less than a quarter of the way into the season…but here we are!

Ah well, time to get back on that horse!

Week 4 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – GREEN BAY over New England – I won’t say that the Packers are back to normal after winning in Tampa last week…but there definitely at a point where they can easily handle Mac Jones’ backup.

15 – Minnesota over NEW ORLEANS – Remember to wake up early to catch the first London game of the year! Or don’t, its just Kirk Cousins vs Jameis Winston.

14 – PITTSBURGH over New York Jets – Zach Wilson is back!!! Yeah…it won’t matter.

13 – PHILADELPHIA over Jacksonville – So the Eagles look like the best team in the league…the Jaguars just went to LA and beat the Chargers by four touchdowns … … … where are we??

12 – LAS VEGAS over Denver – Yes, this is an ignorant hopeful homer pick. If  you choose to make adjustments with this one, I will more than understand.

11 – DETROIT over Seattle – The Lions are on a double-digit line…as the winner? This has been a weird start to the season.

10 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Chicago –  This will basically be Saquon Barkley and a bunch of middle schoolers.

9 – DALLAS over Washington – The Cowboys in another divisional matchup that, unlike last week, wont be nationally televised…thank God!

8 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – The Colts and Titans both battling to try and keep pace with the Jaguars …(checks notes confusingly)

7 – ATLANTA over Cleveland – Yes this will the Falcons back-to-back wins…but change is coming. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is DESMOND RIDDER WILL BE STARTING FOR THE FALCONS BY WEEK 12.

6 – Buffalo over BALTIMORE – One loss won’t change my Bills’ opinion. Safe to say Ken Dorsey will be making sure no mistakes are made this week!

5 – CINCINNATI over Miami – I don’t think there would be a bigger way to close the book on the 2021 season than the Dolphins going 4-0 by sending the defending AFC Champions to a 1-2 start…but it won’t happen.

4 – SAN FRANCISCO over Los Angeles Rams – Just like the Bengals, the Rams don’t exactly seem to have the dominant aura that a defending Super Bowl champion should have.

3 – Los Angeles Chargers over HOUSTON – I wanted to say the Chargers would lose to the Texans since they knocked me out of my survivor pool last week…but I have responsibilities.

2 – TAMPA BAY over Kansas City – This one is obviously a toss-up with the craziness surrounding it. Thoughts & prayers out to everyone in Florida – stay safe!

1 – CAROLINA over Arizona – Can you think of anything entertaining or helpful to say about this one? Go ahead, I’ll wait…

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

4 Lost Fumbles

I’ve been talking up Trevor Lawrence, so it’s only fair that I talk about when he’s remarkably bad as well. He’s the first player this century to lose 4 fumbles in one game. Those 4 fumbles canceled out Lawrence’s 2 TD passes. He finished the game with 6.66 points – truly not a great sign for what I thought was a step forward in his second year. Lawrence added one pick to his total, for 5 overall turnovers – the most he’s had in a single game in his career. Sometimes I wish that there was still someone on TV to hype the Jaguars so I didn't feel so alone in this. Meanwhile, their opponent the Eagles D/ST has been having a great year – they now have 5 INTs, 5 fumbles recovered, and 16 sacks through just 4 games. They are now the D/ST2 on the season, but have 2 tough matchups leading into their bye week, so – maybe time to try and trade a D/ST? Is that even a thing?

2 Quarterbacks Over 30 Fantasy Points

…And neither of them are owned in the drinkfive.com so-called “Experts League”. Well, let’s not be too tough on everyone, here. Geno Smith threw for 2 TDs and ran in another while accounting for 369 total yards on the day on his way to leading the Seahawks to 48 total points – and they needed nearly every one of them. More on that in a moment. Joining Smith in the 30+ territory was his opponent, Jared Goff. For the second time this year, Goff threw for 4 TDs and he’s now the QB5 on the season. Goff is also tied for the league lead with 11 passing TDs. This is likely a trend that can continue for Goff, considering his team has given up the most points in the league so far this year.

140 Points Scored on the Season

The Detroit Lions are leading the league in scoring, having scored 140 points on the year so far. Unfortunately for them, they have given up 141 points – also the most in the league. This is why they have a very disappointing 1-3 record. The Lions have scored 35 and 45 points in games they lost this season. They are leading the league in passing TDs (tied), rushing yards per attempt, and total yards. Second in the league in rushing TDs, and top 10 in lots of other important offensive milestones. Unfortunately, they are dead last in defense when it comes to points, yards, first downs given up, rushing TDs, and rushing yards per attempt. It’s really an extreme experience being a Lions fan this season.

5 of 5 Field Goals in the Home of the Hotspurs

Kickers haven’t come up much this year so far, and props go to Greg Joseph of the Vikings who completed 5 of his 5 field goal attempts in England on Sunday morning. He kicked for a total of 181 yards, including one with under 30 seconds left to answer Will Lutz’s 60-yard field goal which had tied the game just minutes earlier. The fans in England were treated to a good game, one that had 5 scores in the 4^th quarter alone. Unfortunately for Joseph, he can’t claim he had a perfect day, as he did miss 1 extra point. In fact, each of the top 4 scoring kickers missed one kick this week – 3 of them missing extra points attempts. Perhaps this shows that the NFL moving the extra point back is accomplishing what they wanted. Perhaps this shows that kicking is pretty damn random indeed. Perhaps they don’t even belong in a column about fantasy football. My apologies, it’s getting late.

35.9 Fantasy Points

I tried my best, but I just couldn’t avoid talking about one more Detroit Lion. It’s not as if he doesn’t deserve it. T.J. Hockenson scored 35.9 fantasy points, the most of any TE this season – by more than 10 points. Hockenson had 8 receptions for 179 yards (lead the league in receiving yards) and scored 2 TDs. He even tacked on a 2-point conversion catch just for the cherry on top. This catapulted him all the way to TE3 on the season, even though he had only 19.2 points going into week 4. He has 65% of his points in just one game this year. Sometimes a small sample size is really fun to play with.