Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

8-0

It’s good to be a team out west. Following Monday night’s victory by the Raiders, both the NFC and AFC West divisions are a perfect 8-0. They stand in stark contrast to the NFC North, which started 0-4. The Raiders certainly had the most exciting victory of the bunch, but honorable mentions go to Kansas City, where Patrick Mahomes kept his perfect September streak alive while moving to 35 TDs and 0 INTs during September. Kudos also go to the Chargers, who sit in last place after a very tough victory over the Washington Football Team. The Seahawks share their last-place standing, after having a ho-hum victory over a non-conference team in Indianapolis. 

3 Rookie WR Touchdowns

The three wide receivers who were taken in the first round of the 2021 draft all had an immediate impact on their respective teams. Devonta Smith started off the scoring for the Eagles, finding the end zone on an 18-yard pass from Jalen Hurts halfway through the first quarter. It would up being all the scoring the Eagles would need against an anemic Falcons team. Not to be outdone, Ja’Marr Chase caught a 50 yard TD from his former (and current) teammate Joe Burrow as time was running down in the first half of their game against Minnesota. Chase caught 5 of 7 targets for 101 yards and a TD, so clearly, the “lines on the ball” thing was a bit overblown. We should all cut rookies some slack when they’re accidentally candid with a reporter. Based on the public’s reaction, we don’t have to worry about him being candid any time in the near future. In the afternoon slate of games, Jaylen Waddle got in on the fun, scoring from 3 yards out early in the second half. All of these rookies’ teams won on Sunday.

0 TDs

Week 1’s top scoring fantasy RB managed to score the most points of the week and didn’t even find the end zone. Of course, it’s a familiar name - Christian McCaffrey put up 23.2 fantasy points, a low total for the top scorer of the week. He had 187 yards from scrimmage, or 49% of his team’s total offense. Add 9 receptions to that, and he had enough points to lead a week where only 4 other players managed to top the 20 point mark. Most notable in that group are Jamaal Williams and De’Andre Swift, who were avoided like the plague in most drafts and seemed to fall pretty far until being picked late. Both Williams and Swift had 8 receptions, over 100 yards from scrimmage, and scored a touchdown in the Lions’ opening day loss to the 49ers.

12-100 Yard Receiving Games

The NFL truly is a passing league in 2021. There were 12 wide receivers who hit the 100-yard mark, versus only 5 running backs who hit 100 rushing yards. Leading the way was one of the top WRs picked in the draft, Tyreek Hill, who put up a massive 197 yards on 11 receptions and 15 targets. He also found the end zone in the Chiefs' comeback victory, and thus assuring the Chiefs multiple mentions in this column, as is tradition. One rookie joined the group over 100 yards, the aforementioned Ja’Marr Chase, squeaking by at 101 yards. An old favorite also found himself in the group - Antonio Brown, who put up 5 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown in his best opening day performance since 2017. Finally, an honorable mention must go to Darren Waller, who cracked the 100-yard mark on his game-tying TD in the 4th quarter of last night’s game and managed to be the only tight end to hit the century mark in week 1 of this season.

5 Passing TDs

...And 148 passing yards. What? The Jameis Winston era in New Orleans (via Jacksonville) has begun with a stat line that the NFL has never seen. Never before has someone thrown for 5 TDs on less than 150 passing yards. Along with zero INTs, I suppose that Lasik surgery worked wonders. Winston had 14 completions on 20 attempts, totaling 29.62 fantasy points, good for the QB4 on the week. He is currently owned in only 56% of Fleaflicker leagues. The QB3 on the week, Jared Goff, is only owned in 40% of leagues! The wire is going to be hot this week. But I digress. The story of this game was the Packers scoring only 3 points. I don’t think that there’s much to worry about on the offensive side for Green Bay, but I do think their defense can be exploited in fantasy matchups all season long.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

6 Receptions

Sunday in Seattle, Derrick Henry had a career-high 6 receptions, his previous high-water mark was only 4 receptions. He now has 9 catches in two games this year – his career-high in a season are 19 catches in 2020.  Perhaps, however, I am burying the lead, much like Henry buried the Seahawks defense in the second half of the game. Henry finished yesterday’s game with an absolutely gaudy (albeit overtime aided) stat line. 35 carries for 182 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, 6 receptions on 6 targets for 55 receiving yards. This gave Henry a final fantasy total of 44.7 points, a single-game total that’s nearly 10 points higher than any other player in the NFL this season. Congrats on the win, everybody who has Derrick Henry on their team. Henry holds the lead in fantasy points among all non-QB players, and also leads the league in rushing yards, carries, rushing TDs, and touches. He’s picked right up on the pace he had last season and even has expanded on his receiving game, making it possible for him to be the #1 RB in all of fantasy football this year, even with a healthy Christian McCaffrey around.

2.01 Christian McCaffreys

Or would it be McCafferies? It’s not important. Just geeking out on Henry’s amazing 44.7-point performance, which just more than twice as many points as the second-best RB of the week, Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey does lead the league in yards from scrimmage with 324 already (170 rushing, 154 receiving) – only one other RB, Kenyan Drake, has over 100 receiving yards through two games. Among other players who scored nearly half as many points as Derrick Henry were Tony Pollard, Cordarrelle Patterson, and J.D. McKissic – none of whom are rostered in our drinkfive.com league. Now, this is mostly me calling out our league, since both Pollard (75% owned) and McKissic (58% owned) should really be rostered. Cordarrelle Patterson was definitely a surprise to fantasy players this week, finishing with 21.4 fantasy points and scoring both on the ground and through the air, the first time he’s done that since his rookie season in 2013.

50.84 Fantasy Points

Through two weeks, the QB5 on the season is Daniel Jones, and he’s still only owned in 50% of Fleaflicker leagues. Jones is third in rushing yards among QBs, has 2 rushing scores, and perhaps most importantly, has just one fumble and zero interceptions on the season. Jones is taking clear steps forward in improving his game, at least as far as fantasy football goes. I suppose that fans of the actual New York Football Giants might have differing opinions. Elsewhere at the QB position, Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins both find themselves in the top 10 of fantasy points, outscoring guys who were drafted way ahead of them like Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Ryan Tannehill. As of the time I’m writing this, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played in his Week 2 game yet, so it’s not really fair to pile on to his 3.32 point performance to open the season (though to be fair to me, that’s a really small target to try and pile on to).

4 Receiving Touchdowns

Rob Gronkowski is the early league leader in receiving touchdowns, nabbing two in each of his first two games. He’s also got 12 receptions through those two games, and he’s never finished a season above 5.6 receptions per game. It’s hard to say that this is a renaissance for Gronk, since nearly everyone expects his production to fall off at some point due to all the wear and tear he’s had through the years. I will, however, keep rolling him out at TE until he shows me that he’s going to slow down. Currently, he’s the TE2, but only behind Travis Kelce by 0.1 points, making them essentially both TE1’s on the year. They are way ahead of Darren Waller’s impressive 30.5 points on the year, who is in turn way ahead of the rest of the pack, which is in the low 20’s (pending T.J. Hockenson’s performance tonight).

12 Kickers with Double-digit Points

I avoided them last week, but you can’t dodge a kicker forever, so let’s see how they’re doing. This week was excellent for kickers, with a cool dozen players scoring 10 points or more, so great news, right? Surely, you started one of those kickers. Well, maybe not. In our drinkfive.com league, only 3 of those 12 kickers were rostered for last weeks’ games. 7 of those kickers were owned in 12% of Fleaflicker leagues or less, proving once again that this is probably the hardest position to predict on a week-to-week basis. Week 2’s leader, Graham Gano, is a name that has been around forever, yet he is on only 12% of teams, while going a perfect 5/5 on FGs and 2/2 on XPs for 23.2 total fantasy points. Remember folks, don’t just go for the guys who have big names, go for the guys who are on teams that cannot score touchdowns! Like Gano or the K3 on the week, Nick Folk of the Patriots. Of course, Folk missed an extra point, so his job is likely in jeopardy with a coach like Belichick.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

42 Offensive Plays

The Cincinnati Bengals had only 42 plays (excluding 4^th down) on offense against the Steelers on Sunday and showed me that perhaps quantity isn’t everything. On last week’s podcast, I stressed that the Bengals just need to throw the ball a lot more in order to get their offense going. After all, their strength is really in the receiving core they have built. So, Joe Burrow throwing 18 passes is not what I would have considered a ticket to victory. It would appear, however, that efficiency is everything. Burrow’s final stat line of 14/18 for 172 yards and 3 TDs (and 1 INT) was plenty for victory, compared to Ben Roethlisberger going 38/58 for 318 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. That’s right, Ben threw the ball an astonishing 40 times more than his opponent. Hell, he targeted Najee Harris 19 times – that’s more than Burrow’s total attempts! So, I still think that the Bengals need to throw the ball in order to have success this year – and I’m sort of backed up in the stats with 3 TDs through the air, but I certainly got a big lesson in how important it is to be efficient on the football field.

66 Yard Field Goal

Usually, kickers are buried at the bottom of my column, but this week they certainly deserve a more prominent position. First of all, congrats to Justin Tucker, who finally broke the NFL record for the longest made field goal at 66 yards. As the best kicker in history, (sorry, Adam Vinatieri), it feels like it was only inevitable that Tucker would eventually break this record – it was just a matter of being given a chance. Jacksonville taught us all a lesson this week about why you don’t necessarily attempt field goals that long. At the end of the first half on Sunday, Matt Prater lined up to attempt a 68-yard field goal, which fell short and was returned 109 yards by Jamal Agnew of the Jags for a touchdown as time expired in the half. Apparently, it’s really hard to stop a guy on a return when you have a kicker, a holder, and 9 linemen on the field – rather than your normal kicking team. Agnew wasn’t touched once he crossed his own 40-yard line. It was an eventful day for kickers across the league. 10 kickers finished with 10+ fantasy points, and we were treated to a night cap of Mason Crosby kicking a 51-yard field goal to cap yet another Aaron Rodgers comeback.

7 Players with Rush Attempts

The San Fransisco 49ers are currently on the hunt for a starting RB. Trey Sermon was the starter in name last night, and did receive 10 carries, but that wasn’t even quite half of the 21 carries attempted by the team in the game. Six other players carried the ball for the 49ers, none of them doing so very effectively. Overall, the team had 21 carries for 67 yards, good for just 3.2 ypc. At least they did find the end zone twice. The 49ers need a featured back to make their offense run correctly, and they have been decimated by injury this year, so unless someone can step up into the role, it’s going to be a long year in San Fransisco. Hell, they had more players attempt a rush than catch a pass. I’m not sure the last time that happened, but it feels like some 1940’s football right there. The Packers had the opposite true – targeting 9 different players (technically…) while only two players had rushing attempts. That technicality? Well, I’m sure that Aaron Rodgers didn’t mean to target himself when he caught a pass off a deflection for 4 yards.

47 Total Yards

The Bears offense reached new lows on Sunday against a Cleveland Browns defense that feasted on rookie QB Justin Fields. The Bears total yardage – basically a net total, gains minus losses, was 47 for the entire team. Fields had 68 total passing yards, and lost 67 yards over the course of the 9 sacks that he had. No player on the Bears had more than 2 receptions. The Browns were able to run the ball 42 times, while the Bears attempted a combined 33 passes and rushes. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both outgained the Bears with their rushing yardage totals, and then Hunt did it again through the air with 74 more yards. Odell Beckham Jr. returned to the lineup, and also outgained the entire Chicago offense. Throughout the league, we had a number of plays that outgained the entire Bears offense on a single snap of the ball. Justin Tucker’s 66-yard record breaking FG, Mason Crosby’s game winning FG (51 yards), Antonio Gibson’s 73-yard touchdown reception, Jamal Angew’s 109-yard return TD, and many other field goals and other big plays. The point I’m trying to make here is that the Bears gained just 47 more yards of offense than I did on Sunday, and I barely left the couch.

12 QBs over 20 Fantasy Points

Time for a quick QB roundup. Josh Allen led the way this week, scoring 5 total touchdowns in the second straight game where his team put up 35+ points on their opponent – this time it was on the Washington defense that was very respected last year. Speaking of Football Teams, capital F, capital T, Taylor Heinicke just put up his second straight game above 20 fantasy points. It’s looking like he could take the starting job for the entire season, and he’s only owned in 27% of Fleaflicker leagues, so hit that wire! Landing just outside this top 12 was Kyler Murray, putting up just 19.54 points in Jacksonville – though he still keeps the season lead among all QBs with 89.2 fantasy points through three games. Justin Herbert finally has a signature win in his young career, and had a huge fantasy day. Leading a late TD drive, Herbert put up 4 total TDs and broke the 30-point mark. Elsewhere at QB, Sam Darnold is averaging 21.6 ppg, Aaron Rodgers is averaging 16.22 points per game, and Tom Brady has 4 carries for 20 yards. Nice.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

5 Rushing TDs

Nearly a quarter into the 2021 season, the league’s leader in rushing touchdowns is certainly not someone anyone expected. Sam Darnold now has 5 total rushing TDs on the season after back-to-back 2 TD games. He’s also got 5 total passing TDs, but his two INTs yesterday cost his team their perfect record.  But hey, fantasy football isn’t all about wins and losses. Darnold was the QB1 on the week, just edging out Patrick Mahomes and his 5 passing TDs. Darnold is now the QB5 on the season, just a fraction of a point behind Tom Brady for 4^th. Darnold is a game manager who just happens to be scrambling into the end zone at the right moments. His 20 carries for 58 yards on the year do not inspire confidence in his rushing abilities. My advice to you is to package Darnold in some sort of trade where you can sell him at his highest value of the season, especially before Christian McCaffrey comes back and the ground game takes over the Panthers' offense once again.

32.1 Fantasy Points

Cordarrelle Patterson is continuing his spectacular season. The 2013 first-round pick has bounced around the league for 9 years, and now finally on his 5^th team, it seems like they have unlocked his offensive abilities. Patterson finished Week 4 as the RB1 on the week, and sits as the RB2 on the season, behind only Derrick Henry (who is on pace for nearly 2,700 yards from scrimmage). Patterson’s 5 TDs is the highest total he’s had since his rookie season (and tied with Sam Darnold for the league lead). His 45 touches and 354 yards from scrimmage are both more than halfway to career highs. It’s pretty rare that a player can blow away their season-best stats 9 years into their career. He’s still only owned in 70% of Fleaflicker leagues, so I imagine that the rest of the leagues will be frantically scrambling on the waiver wire to pick him up.

4 of the Top 6 Quarterbacks are Free Agents

In fantasy football, we’re used to positional volatility. We might expect a bunch of the top-scoring kickers, defenses, or tight ends to not be on any team in a given week. What we generally don’t expect is that to be true for the quarterback position. Using our drinkfive.com fantasy league for reference, we find that 4 of the top 6 QBs in week 4’s scoring were all free agents. This includes the week’s top scorer, the aforementioned Sam Darnold (56%), Matt Ryan (76%), Taylor Heinicke (34%), and Daniel Jones (60%). We also find the most owned QB, Tom Brady (98%) put up a whopping 11.06 points, despite 43 passing attempts. So, it’s sometimes a crapshoot, even at the most consistent position in the game. That’s what makes fantasy football so much fun (and aggravating), isn’t it?

10% League Ownership

Want some positional volatility? The tight end position has it in droves. This week’s top scorer, C.J. Uzomah (another candidate for a late-career break-out) is owned in only 10% of Fleaflicker leagues. His monster game on Thursday night helped propel the Bengals to victory. 5 receptions for 95 yards and 2 TDs gave him a total of 24 fantasy points, almost 6 points more than the next highest scorer. Among the top 5 scoring TEs so far this week, their ownership caps out at 58% for Dalton Shultz. The average ownership is only 29%. When we look at the TEs who are owned in at least 90% of leagues (we must exclude Gronk and Waller, who did not or have not played yet), we find that they only scored an average of 6.6 points. This is going to be the season that benefits QB and TE streamers the most.

8-100 Yard Rushing Performances

With all of this craziness, let’s check out a position that’s all chalk, shall we? This week, there were 8–100-yard rushing performances by running backs. Every single one of those players are owned in at least 92% of Fleaflicker leagues. In fact, if you expand that list to include all-purpose yards, there were 13 such games by running backs. All but one, Cordarrelle Patterson (who led in both AP yards – the guy Is still returning kicks, and points) are owned in at least 89% of leagues. This consistency at the running back position is probably the most predictable thing in all of fantasy football this year. Even the WR position has some wacky stuff going on, like Randall Cobb’s 21.4 points, good for WR6 on the week and helping exactly nobody since he’s only owned in 24% of leagues. This is certainly an important week to work the waiver wire!