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Finally! They’re done!

We are heading into week 15 and FINALLY we are done with bye weeks! 16 games a week for the rest of the season! That means we’ll have more chance for points in our pools.

Of course…we do have to pick them correctly.

So let’s get to it!

Week 15 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – PHILADELPHIA over Las Vegas – The Eagles should thank the scheduling Gods that they were given a home game against the Raiders to get right.

15 – JACKSONVILLE over New York Jets – The AFC South will be a fun division to watch, and both remaining contenders …

14 – HOUSTON over Arizona – …yes both remaining contenders get easy wins this week.

13 – SAN FRANCISCO over Tennessee – Apparently this is the late-season week of no-brainers.

12 – CHICAGO over Cleveland - …as I just said, LOT of no-brainers this week.

11 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – I’m pretty sure the Falcons are already looking at mock drafts for next year.

10 – PITTSBURGH over Miami – Much like the Falcons, the Dolphins are just running out the clock at this point.

9 – SEATTLE over Indianapolis – This would have been a great game three or four weeks ago.

8 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Detroit – The Rams can do a lot to ensure they don’t have to see the Lions in the playoffs this week.

7 – Carolina over NEW ORLEANS – Tyler Shough is starting to show us something, maybe he can be the next Bryce Young … in a couple years.

6 – CINCINNATI over Baltimore – We are seeing the Bengals I think we all expected to see this season.

5 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Chargers – It’s still stunning to see this game this low on our list.

4 – Buffalo over NEW ENGLAND – This won’t be the last time we see this matchup. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THIS WILL BE THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP MATCHUP THIS YEAR.

3 – DENVER over Green Bay – The Packers won’t be able to come down from their big divisional win last week to be ready for kickoff.

2 – DALLAS over Minnesota – Someone has to win this one I guess.

1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington – You know our rule about picking New York teams to win this year.

Normally, being just a few weeks away from the last week of the season, playoff positions are solidified and we need to take into account that teams may be benching star players.

Not this year though! Only two teams have clinched a playoff spot at this point and it seems that every playoff seed is still up for grabs and this is just another week!

Week 16 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – HOUSTON over Las Vegas – I’ll be honest, I’m starting to think the Raiders won’t be making the playoffs this year.

15 – Buffalo over CLEVELAND – Shedeur Sanders won’t be able to put up enough points to keep up with the Bills.

14 – ARIZONA over Atlanta – Tells you how close this week is going to be when the Cardinals are this high.

13 – DENVER over Jacksonville – Who knew at the beginning of the year that this could be our AFC Championship matchup??

12 – Philadelphia over WASHINGTON – Nothing like a game against the Raiders to get the Eagles back on track.

11 – CHICAGO over Green Bay – A little worried about Odunze and Burden being out … but … DAAAAAAAAAA BEARS.

10 – NEW ORLEANS over New York Jets – If I were the Saints, I would give Tyler Shough a full season as QB1 next season.

9 – CAROLINA over Tampa Bay – The Bucs just seem like they want to give the division away.

8 – BALTIMORE over New England – This is a horrible time to collapse if you’re the Pats

7 – San Francisco over INDIANAPOLIS – No truth to the rumors that, following Phillip Rivers lead, Steve Young will come out of retirement…yet

6 – Cincinnati over MIAMI – Not the season the Dolphins were expecting. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that WE WILL SEE A NEW QUARTERBACK, COACH AND GM IN MIAMI NEXT SEASON.

5 – SEATTLE over Los Angeles Rams – Most meaningful game of the year so far to say the least.

4 – DETROIT over Pittsburgh – I feel like this game shouldn’t be this low, but that’s the level of confidence the Lions have given us this year

3 – DALLAS over Los Angeles Chargers – It’s really weird to think that the Cowboys have an outside chance to make the playoffs let alone win the division this year.

2 – TENNESSEE over Kansas City – Let’s all take a moment to appreciate that this year, the playoffs will not include random shots of a family skybox alllllll game!

1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Minnesota – If we think New York will win, yada yada yada

Christmas is indeed the time of giving.

And this year, the NFL is giving us a full slate of games on Christmas Day and another Saturday double-header to go with our regular slate of games. Let’s face it, we’ll all need some sort of a distraction from our families, now we have it! (just kidding, family members who might be reading this!)

Happy Holidays everyone!!

Week 17 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – CINCINNATI over Arizona – Seeing the Bengals at the top spot should tell you just how close the games are going to be this week.

15 – Denver over KANSAS CITY – Everyone outside of Missouri is loving the fall of the Chiefs! Well, maybe not some fantasy owners.

14 – Tampa Bay over MIAMI – The Dolphins have gone from “Tank For Tua” to “Tank to Replace Tua”

13 – New England over NEW YORK JETS – I just want to take this time to remind everyone that the season started with the Raiders beating the Patriots in New England in Week 1.

12 – Los Angeles Rams over ATLANTA – Safe to say the Rams are going to have a lot of frustration from last week to take out on the Falcons.

11 – Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND – Lot of road wins this week!

10 – Detroit over MINNESOTA – …and they just don’t seem to stop!

9 – BUFFALO over Philadelphia – This HAS to be the Bills year. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE BILLS WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL.

8 – New York Giants over LAS VEGAS – I know, put a New York team on the one-point line if we think they’re gonna win. Wel…unless they play the Raiders.

7 – WASHINGTON over Dallas – This just seems like one of those games the Cowboys will let slip away.

6 – Baltimore over GREEN BAY – Injuries may be derailing the Packers post-season aspirations this year.

5 – Seattle over CAROLINA – Fate does seem to be on the side of the Seahawks this season.

4 – TENNESSEE over New Orleans – Even in loss, look for Tyler Shough to continue to show the Saints he should be the Saints QB1 in week 1 of 2026

3 – INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville – The Colts have quickly turned into the spoilers this year …

2 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Houston - … but the Texans won’t be able to take advantage.

1 – SAN FRANCISCO over Chicago – This is just going to be a fun game to watch.

What an incredible time to be alive!  The sports betting business is booming as more and more states pass legislation to legalize and collect, on the once-taboo activity. Whether or not you’re new to sports betting or you’ve had means of betting for some time now, the fact remains that every bettor needs to have a strategy to have any shot at being successful. In that last couple of years, I would say that I transitioned from a true average Joe bettor to a more informed and strategic amateur bettor. The first step in the progression for me was identifying a strategy and sticking to it.

I don’t make a living betting on sports. As much as I would love to eventually learn to handicap and create my own power ratings, it’s not something that is in the cards for me right now. I would venture to guess that a majority of sports bettors feel this way. So what’s the next best thing?  Start your sports betting fundamentals with a contrarian strategy.

A contrarian is simply someone who “opposes or rejects popular opinion”. In sports betting this is also referred to as fading the public. I’ve been the public. The guy betting on my basic instinct and bias. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees on Monday Night Football, how can I not take the over!  Of course, I would look at the line, but my bias placed the bet before I had even grabbed my phone. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are very aware of public bias and they build this into their lines. Contrarian bettors take advantage of this to get more value in our picks.

Identifying public bias and understanding how the books play into this is the most important tenet of being a contrarian bettor. Favorites are a staple of the public bettors. The books build this bias into their numbers. So, let’s say a book runs their power rankings and it shows that Seattle should be a 4-point favorite, they will shade the line towards Seattle and make them, for sake of argument, 4.5 or 5 point favorites knowing the public is more often than not taking them anyway. Immediately out of the gate a contrarian bettor is getting a half-point to full point value simply because of public betting bias. The same is true for home teams. So, using the same example from above, Seattle is a 5-point favorite with the public bias computed in, if they are at home you would see this line increase even more making Seattle -8 or perhaps even higher. That is not to say that there are not advantages to playing at home, but rather that the bookmakers already take this into account when setting the number and essentially protect against the home field advantage bias. A team like Seattle could see a shade towards their home field advantage because it’s widely known that Seattle is a tough stadium to play in with the 12^th man. Notice that I didn’t even mention who Seattle was playing. Obviously, the opponent factors into the lines, but the point I am trying to make is purely to show how public betting bias plays into the creation of lines. A contrarian bettor in this fictional scenario is already gaining, at minimum, a half-point of extra value before we even break down other factors.

Overs are another popular pick for public bettors. Who doesn’t want to see points?  I will be the first to admit it is more fun to watch a shootout and more scoring, however, this is another bias that is built into the number. Much like the spread on the favorite is shaded to account for public bias, so is the over. So, let’s stick to the football examples. A matchup formula may indicate that a game total will be around 47 points. The house will shade this line to build in public betting bias and would open the line at 47.7, 48, or 48.5. Again, contrarians gain inherent value looking at unders to play because of this built-in adjustment.

Favorites, home teams, and overs are just 3 examples of how being a contrarian immediately builds value in your bets. Ranked vs unranked bias shades the lines toward the ranked team. A team with a better win-loss record may see shaded lines. Even recent games play into the psychological effects of betting. A team coming off a huge win is more likely to receive heavy betting from public bettors because that big win is fresh in their minds. At the end of the day, it is extremely important to recognize these biases and even more important to understand that the bookmakers have already taken them into account.

Being a contrarian is simply a foundation. It’s a starting point for which to build fundamentals in the way you bet and the games you bet on. It is not the end all be all, however, it does allow you to take advantage of the betting market and in many cases even capitalize on the extra value in your bets because you are fading the public bias.