Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Random observation here …

We have a bit of an anomaly this week. Throughout most of the season we have to deal with bye weeks. Whether it is our fantasy teams or not being able to get more points in a week of a confidence pool, we have to deal with a stretch of the season where someone won’t be playing.

This week though, in the heart of it all, guess who has a bye week … … … bye weeks!

Yes, all 32 teams will be taking the field this weekend. It’s a good thing, too – after the last couple of weeks, we need more points!

Week 8 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – MIAMI over New England – The Patriots won a game they shouldn’t have last week – won’t happen two weeks in a row.

15 – BUFFALO over Tampa Bay – Buffalo will happily use the national stage for a “get right” game

14 – DETROIT over Las Vegas – Fire Josh McDaniels

13 – SEATTLE over Cleveland – The Brows just aren’t allowed to be on a roll for this long – it ends in Seattle

12 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Khalil Mack had six sacks against the Raiders, a former team, a few weeks ago…just gonna leave that there

11 – Kansas City over DENVER – The only reason this is not the 16 point game is that its in Denver

10 – SAN FRANCISCO over Cincinnati – Keep an eye on the Brock Purdy situation – if he can’t go, drop the 9ers way down…maybe even take the Bengals.

9 – Baltimore over ARIZONA – The Cardinals have made it a little harder to say this – My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE CARDINALS WILL HAVE THE FIRST PICK IN THE 2024 NFL DRAFT.

8 – DALLAS over Los Angeles Rams – Micah Parsons vs Aaron Donald … enjoy!

7 – New Orleans over INDIANAPOLIS – I see a big game from Derek Carr here – at least 300 yards.

6 – Minnesota over GREEN BAY – To quote the great Dennis Green – Jordan Love is indeed who we thought he was.

5 – CAROLINA over Houston – Bryce Young was just waiting to play #2 pick CJ Stroud for the first time to get his first win … … … is the denial that he is going with.

4 – Atlanta over TENNESSEE – I can’t really figure the Falcons out this season…but in a good way,

3 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – Hunch…and hunches stay low on our list.

2 – PITTSBURGH over Jacksonville – This just seems like a game the Steelers can pull out.

1 – NEW YORK JETS over New York Giants – I’d give the standard “New York Bragging Rights” comment here, but is anyone in New York bragging over either team?

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! You’ve survived the week 7 bye-mageddon, and the scheduling gods have given you a reprieve for week 8 with no byes on the schedule. There will be more challenging bye weeks ahead, but all options are on the table this weekend. Unfortunately, that means there may be fewer rookies that are worth rolling the dice on with fewer lineup holes to be filled.

There are fewer rookies I’d lean toward starting this week than in a typical bye week, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t reasons to be excited for the rookie crop this weekend. We do get a couple of fun rookie matchups in week 8. We were deprived of Tyson Bagent vs Aidan O’Connell last week when the Raiders opted to start Brian Hoyer, but we get the rookie QB main event this week with CJ Stroud vs. Bryce Young in Carolina. Stroud has undoubtedly been the more impressive of the two so far this season, but this should be a fun game to watch with two QBs who should lead their franchises for the next few seasons or longer. We also get a fun tight end duel between Sam LaPorta and Michael Mayer, who were drafted with back-to-back picks in the early 2^nd round. LaPorta has been a stud tight end all season, but Mayer has been emerging in recent weeks.

We also get the chance to see if some highly touted rookies can build on the breakout games they had in week 7. Dalton Kincaid, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jahmyr Gibbs all posted their best days of the season and will be looking to keep it rolling in week 8. Hopefully, we’ll also get to see a bounce-back game out of Bijan Robinson after the Falcons skirted the injury-reporting rules last week and didn’t indicate that Robinson might be limited until well after their game had started. Robinson was limited to just 1 carry for the day on a handful of snaps due to headaches or some sort of illness that started Saturday night. Hopefully, he’s back to his usual self this week.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 8:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 8: @Ten.): Last week was brutal for anyone who started Robinson in fantasy lineups. There was no warning that anything was off with the star rookie until the game started and he wasn’t getting touches. He finished the day with just 1 carry for 3 yards. All I can tell you is to flush that game from your memory. Forget that it happened. Keep tabs on the injury report and make sure Bijan is ok this week, but if he’s good to go, he should be in your lineup, even in a tough matchup with the Titans. Tennessee ranks 4^th in FTN’s run defense DVOA stat and has allowed fewer than 12 running back points per game if you throw out an uncharacteristically bad performance against the Colts’ backs, but if Bijan is back to his usual 15+ touch role, he should be treated as no worse than a high-end RB2.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Last Sunday’s tilt with the Ravens was an ugly one for Detroit, but we finally got to see Jahmyr Gibbs in a true lead back role where he was actually used in both the run game and as a receiver (although he didn’t really produce much until garbage time). Gibbs touched the ball just 4 times in the first half as the Ravens dominated possession, but he finished with 68 yards and a score on the ground and 9-58 on 10 targets as a receiver. I wouldn’t count on 9 catches from Gibbs again this week – game script should be much more positive as an 8-point favorite – but he should continue to function as the lead back in a plus matchup while David Montgomery continues to recover from his rib injury. He could lose some goal line and short-yardage work to Craig Reynolds, but Gibbs should still see plenty of work against a Raiders’ defense that has allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game and ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. He’s a locked and loaded RB2 this week (assuming Monty doesn’t make a miracle return).

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Nacua faces a tough matchup against a Dallas defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt by now. You don’t worry about the matchups with Puka, you just plug him into the lineup. He’s averaged 10 targets and 84 yards per game in 3 contests since Cooper Kupp returned from IR.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 8: @GB): Addison had his coming out party on Monday night against the 49ers. He wasn’t used as the obvious WR1 in Minnesota’s first game without Justin Jefferson, but that changed in week 7. Addison set season highs in targets and air yards and led the team with 4 targets on 3^rd or 4^th down. Kirk Cousins looked for him when he needed someone to make a big play, and Addison obliged, making arguably the play of the game when he ripped an interception out of the hands of Charvarius Ward and sprinted for a long TD just before halftime. Addison should continue to function as the Vikings’ lead wide receiver until Justin Jefferson is able to return. This week that means a healthy number of targets against a defense that ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #1 receiver, and 30^th on deep throws. Addison is a solid WR2/3 this week. I’d give him a slight downgrade if Jaire Alexander returns for the Packers this week, but not enough of one that I’d sit him without great options in front of him.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): Flowers has scored double-digit PPR points in 6 of 7 games so far this season, and the Cardinals have allowed 15+ PPR points to an opposing receiver in 5 straight games. The Cardinals rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and the Ravens have the 4^th-highest implied point total of the week. Everything shapes up for Flowers to be an easy call to start as a WR3. He’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling in this matchup. He may be a good option for DFS tournaments this week as the Cards have coughed up 148+ yards to 3 of the last 4 WR1s they faced (Aiyuk, Chase, Kupp).

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): LaPorta faced one of the toughest tight end matchups in the league last weekend (Baltimore allows fewer than 30 tight end receiving yards per game), and he finished the week as the PPR TE10 with 6 catches and 52 yards on 7 targets. LaPorta has yet to finish below the PPR TE16 in any week this season, and his matchup this week is a little more forgiving than last week’s. There may be less passing volume for Detroit this week as 8-point favorites, but LaPorta is 2^nd on the team in targets, and the Raiders have allowed the 18^th-most TE points per game and rank just 22^nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing tight ends. LaPorta remains a top-10 tight end option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Stroud hasn’t had to throw a ton in recent weeks, averaging just 30.5 pass attempts per game in his last 4 contests, but he’s still managed to average 258 passing yards per game in that stretch, and he’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 of his last 5 games. His opponents this week, the Panthers, have allowed multiple passing TDs to each of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced, and 3 passing scores to each of the last 2. Carolina ranks just 18^th in pass defense DVOA and will likely struggle to contain the very efficient Stroud, who should have his receiving unit back at full strength with the return of Tank Dell. Stroud’s ceiling could be limited by his lower passing volume, but his recent performance trends and this matchup tell me he should be a fringe QB1 for week 8.

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): I list Young under the same header as CJ Stroud, but I don’t view them as comparable options this week. Stroud is in play for 1-QB leagues, while Young is a borderline option in 2-QB and superflex leagues. The Panthers have dropped each of their last 2 games by 3 scores, But Bryce recorded his two best fantasy games of the season in those contests and showed signs of improvement. The Panthers simplified their offense in week 6, and Young seemed to be more comfortable, at least early on in that game. He’s now had a bye week to make more strides and this week he faces a Houston team that has allowed the 9^th-most QB points per game and ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. The reasonable ceiling here is probably 250 yards and 2 scores, and the floor is still low, but I like Young’s chances of cracking the top-20 QBs for the week.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Johnson has missed 2 weeks now in the concussion protocol, so I’d be surprised if he wasn’t able to return this week. The matchup is a decent one against a Chargers’ defense that ranks 23^rd in run defense DVOA and has allowed an opposing back to reach 12+ fantasy points in each game this season, but Johnson will likely be splitting the workload with D’Onta Foreman this week after Foreman showed out against the Raiders last Sunday to the tune of 120 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. Johnson’s biggest advantage over Foreman this week will likely come in the passing game. Game script should keep the Bears throwing as 8.5-point underdogs, and while Foreman did draw 5 targets last weekend, the Bears showed a preference early in the year to use Johnson in passing situations. He was the primary option in long down & distance situations and in the 2-minute offense early in the season, and he should resume that role if he returns this week. The Chargers have allowed 4 different backs to catch at least 4 passes in their last 4 games, and the Bears’ RBs earned a 32% target share in Tyson Bagent’s first career start. Johnson has a great chance to finish as a PPR RB3 or better assuming he’s able to suit up this week.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 8: vs. NO): The injury to Anthony Richardson may not be great for the Colts’ franchise, but it’s been good for Josh Downs’ fantasy output. The Colts throw more with Gardner Minshew under center, and Downs is one of his favorite targets. In his last 5 starts in a Shane Steichen offense, Minshew has averaged 39 passing attempts and 298 yards per game. Downs has earned a 22.2% target share from Minshew this year, and he’s averaged 6 catches for 68 yards on 8.7 targets per game in Minshew’s 3 starts. He’s also found the end zone in two of them. The Saints do rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, so this isn’t an easy matchup, but they’ve allowed the 4^th-most receiving yards and 5^th-most yards after catch to opposing slot receivers. Downs is 4^th in the NFL in WR slot snaps. For the season the Saints have allowed 12+ fantasy points to 5 different wide receivers. 3 of them play primarily in the slot. They’ve given up slot receiving lines of 7-54-1 to Adam Thielen, 3-63 to Jayden Reed, 4-45-1 to Deven Thompkins, and 6-90-1 to Christian Kirk. I wouldn’t count on another 20-point game from Downs, but there’s reason to like him as a WR3 in this matchup, even if Michael Pittman Jr. gets a bit of squeaky wheel treatment this week after complaining about his role.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 8: @Den.): Rice has tallied 10+ PPR points in 4 of his last 5 games, logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend, and faces a defense this weekend that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. Rice has seen fluctuations in his weekly route participation rate, but his targets have been consistent. He’s been targeted 5+ times in 4 of the last 5 games (and targeted 4 times in the other). He’s had a solid PPR floor as a WR3/4 option, and this week he might have a little extra ceiling against an awful Broncos’ secondary. Rice’s 53.1% slot rate means he’ll likely avoid Patrick Surtain’s coverage.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. TB): Kincaid finally had the breakout game that we’ve been waiting for all season last week. I mentioned last week that Kincaid has struggled this season because defenses haven’t treated him as a tight end when both he and Dawson Knox were on the field. They’ve lined up in nickel and dime and covered Kincaid with a cornerback. Last weekend with Knox battling a wrist injury and playing limited snaps, Kincaid finally was able to be used more as a traditional tight end, and the result was 8 catches for 75 yards on 8 targets. It’s been reported that Knox will now have wrist surgery and likely be placed on IR. That means Kincaid gets the TE role all to himself for a bit. The matchup this week isn’t great against a Tampa defense that allows the 10^th-fewest TE points per game, but a player with Kincaid’s skills playing a full-time role with Josh Allen as his QB is a sure-fire top-12 option at the position.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Demercado is right on the borderline for me this week. He was a big disappointment in week 6 after being the hot waiver pickup of the week and then totaling just 3 touches against the Rams, but his underlying usage gave reasons for hope. He still led the Cardinals backs in snaps and routes run in that game, and in week 7, he was given the lead back role we expected in week 6. The TCU product handled 13 carries and 5 targets last weekend en route to a PPR RB22 finish against what has been a stingy Seahawks run defense. He should have a similar role this week but gets a similarly tough matchup with the Ravens. Baltimore ranks 7^th in run defense DVOA and is favored by 8.5 points in this game, so I wouldn’t count on Demercado getting much going on the ground. If he’s going to produce, he’s going to have to do it through the air, where he hasn’t been particularly efficient. The Ravens have been vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing 30+ receiving yards to 4 different running backs this season, but Demercado has averaged just 4.2 yards per target on the season. He’ll have to improve on that number or find the end zone this week if he wants to repeat or improve on that RB22 finish. He’s in play as an RB3 this week, but I don’t see a ton of ceiling in a matchup where points may be at a premium for the Cardinals.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Spears has been surprisingly productive this year for a back playing alongside Derrick Henry. He’s played over 50% of the offensive snaps in 5 out of 6 games, including 4 in a row, and he’s finished as a top-30 PPR back 4 times this season. With that in mind, he’s definitely in play this week as a flex/RB3 option in PPR leagues, but I’d take a cautious approach here with the Titans’ QB situation in flux. The expectation is that Ryan Tannehill will miss this game, and that Will Levis will get the start with Malik Willis mixing in as well. Willis in his short career has targeted running backs in the passing game at a lower rate than Tannehill, and no running back caught 20+ passes from Will Levis in his two seasons at Kentucky. I’m not sure we can expect Spears’ usual 4-5 targets in this game, and Atlanta is a tough matchup in the run game. The Falcons have allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 5^th in run defense DVOA. Only Rachaad White has caught for 30+ yards against them out of the backfield. There’s still upside for Spears if he can break off a long run or reception, but there’s more risk of a down week than usual for the rookie.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): McLaughlin played just 10 snaps in week 7 as Javonte Williams got a week closer to full strength, but that may have been a result of some rare positive game script for the Broncos. There should be less of that this week against the Chiefs, who are 8-point favorites, and McLaughlin did still manage 46 scrimmage yards on the limited snaps last week. Still, even in a pass-heavy game script McLaughlin will be splitting receiving opportunities with Williams and Samaje Perine, and KC has allowed just one running back to catch more than 2 passes against them, and none to catch for more than 20 receiving yards.  With Mclaughlin’s limited role, you’ll need him to be extremely efficient to produce a fantasy-worthy performance.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Dell finds himself in his usual landing spot this week, squarely on the start/sit borderline, but I’d place him on the wrong side of the cut line with no teams on byes. The Texans have averaged just 30.5 passing attempts per game in their last 4 games, and they’re 3-point favorites this week and shouldn’t be forced to throw much more than that average. They also have quite a few pass catchers to divvy those targets up between. The Panthers aren’t a difficult matchup, ranking just a middling 18^th in pass defense DVOA. For the season, Dell has been targeted on 22.9% of his routes against zone coverage, and the Panthers play zone at the 3^rd-highest rate in the league. This feels like the kind of game where Dell will post something like 5 catches for 60 yards, but there’s so much weekly volatility in how the Texans’ receivers are used that it’s tough to rely on him as a WR3.

WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): DK Metcalf missed week 7’s meeting with the Cardinals, and JSN and Bobo each benefitted by seeing 5+ targets and finding the end zone. Metcalf is practicing this week and should return, but Tyler Lockett popped up on the injury report as well and missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring issue. It’s likely just precautionary, and I’d expect Lockett to play, but it’s worth monitoring. If Lockett misses this week’s game, both JSN and Bobo would get a boost again. If both Metcalf and Lockett play, Bobo would be the receiver most negatively impacted. He was putting up route participation rates in the 25-30% range prior to last week before spiking to 86% with Metcalf out. No matter what receivers are healthy, Seattle is facing arguably the toughest pass defense in the league. The Browns rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. If both starters are healthy, Bobo is off the fantasy radar. He just won’t see enough playing time to produce against this defense. If someone is out, he becomes more of a TD dart throw. I’d lean away from using JSN as well this week, but he’s more viable. The problem for him is that the Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and JSN just isn’t as effective at getting open vs. man coverage. Roto Underworld credits him with a 37% route win rate vs. man coverage compared to 54% vs. zone. I’d expect most of the WR production this week to go to Metcalf and Lockett. Even if Lockett sits, I’d treat JSN as a WR4 option in the tough matchup.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): Mingo was in a route on nearly every Carolina passing dropback in week 6 ahead of their bye, but he earned just 3 targets on 38 Bryce Young pass attempts in that game. We still haven’t seen Mingo reach double-digit PPR points despite playing a full-time role and averaging 6 targets per game. He’s mostly running routes to create space for Adam Thielen. I wouldn’t count on this week being the one where Mingo has a breakout game. The Texans have allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and week 6 was the first game of the Panthers new ‘simplified’ offense for Bryce Young, and Mingo saw his lowest target total of the year in that game. I’m not sure a bounce-back is coming this week. I’d take it as a pleasant surprise if Mingo topped 50 yards for the first time this season.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Wilson disappointed last weekend with just 3 catches for 26 yards in a matchup vs. the zone-heavy Seahawks. This week he faces off with the Ravens, who rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and are in the top-6 in the league in man coverage rate. Wilson has drawn a target on just 5.7% of his matchups vs. man coverage compared with an 18.8% target rate vs. zone. Wilson has caught for 50+ yards in 4 of 7 games this year, and there’s still upside here in a game where Arizona is almost certain to be playing from behind and throwing, but this doesn’t look like the type of matchup where Wilson has thrived this year. With no byes on the schedule, there are likely better options on your roster than Wilson this week.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Hyatt’s increased playing time finally resulted in a big performance last week as he pulled in receptions of 42 and 33 yards and set a season-high with 5 targets. He’s going to continue to operate as the Giants’ WR2 going forward, and he should keep seeing a few deep targets per game as long as Tyrod Taylor is under center, but this week he gets a tough matchup to cash in those opportunities. The Jets are on track to get both starting cornerbacks - Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed - back from injury this week, and for the season they allow the fewest WR points per game and rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. They’ve given up just 5 completions of 25+ yards to opposing wide receivers this year. Hyatt’s deep targets mean he has a chance to put up a solid game on just a few opportunities, but I wouldn’t count on him doing so in this matchup.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): Mims ran more routes than Brandon Johnson for just the 2^nd time all season in week 7. That only amounted to 14 routes and 1 uncatchable target in a game where the Broncos played from ahead for once, but they should be back to their usual trailing game script and throwing a bunch against the Chiefs this weekend. Mims still isn’t playing enough to be counted on for fantasy lineups, especially against a defense that allows the 8^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. He’ll need to make a splash play or two to return value this week, and while deep targets have been there for Mims, he’s recorded negative 7 scrimmage yards in the past 3 weeks combined. There’s more upside here than meets the eye if his increased playing time continues in trailing game script, but he’s still not really worth consideration outside of leagues that give points for return yards.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Musgrave’s season got off to a promising start, but his usage since suffering a week 4 concussion has been less than inspiring. Prior to the concussion, he had run a route on over 80% of the Packers’ dropbacks in each of the first 3 games of the year and tallied over 70 air yards in two of them. In the two full games he’s played since, that route participation rate has been around 70%, and he’s been under 20 air yards in each game. He’s still seeing a healthy number of targets (6 per game in the last two contests), but his 10 catches in those games turned into just 64 yards. The Vikings have been just a middling tight end defense, allowing the 15^th-most points per game to the position, but George Kittle is the only starting tight end to average more than 6 yards per target against them. Musgrave will probably be hard pressed to get to 50 yards this week, which means you’re counting on a TD for him to post a useful fantasy week. He’s probably still a top 15-18 option at the position, but there are safer choices you can use at tight end this week with no teams on byes.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): It looks like Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be able to return this week barring a setback, but even if O’Connell gets the nod, I’d probably look elsewhere in 2-QB formats. The rookie has shown an ability to move the ball in the two games where he’s seen action, but he’s also turned the ball over 4 times in just a game and a quarter. The Lions have been vulnerable to QBs, coughing up the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to the position largely because opposing teams have been chasing them on the scoreboard, but they still rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA and should be playing with an edge after getting trounced by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. This isn’t the week you want to catch the Lions’ defense if you’re a rookie QB. I would treat O’Connell as a bottom-5 starting option this week if by some chance he gets the start.

QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Ryan Tannehill has been battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this week, and head coach Mike Vrabel said that if Tannehill misses this game, Levis will start, but Malik Willis will mix in as well. You don’t need me to tell you that you shouldn’t start either QB of a Titans’ team that ranks 32^nd in pass attempts and 30^th in passing yards if 2 QBs are splitting the job. The Falcons rank just 29^th in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not enough for me to consider using Levis in his first NFL action. He’s worth monitoring in case he shows out, but he shouldn’t be doing it from in your lineup.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): Charbonnet’s ancillary role in this offense behind Kenneth Walker III has value in weeks where Seattle can play from ahead against bad run defenses. This isn’t one of those weeks. Seattle is favored by a field goal against Cleveland this weekend, but the Browns rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed just one running back to reach double-digit fantasy points against them on fewer than 14 touches. Charbs hasn’t logged more than 10 touches in any game this season. With no teams on byes, he’s in the RB4/RB5 range this week. This changes if Kenneth Walker is unable to play on Sunday. Walker, like teammate Tyler Lockett, popped up on the injury report as a DNP (did not practice) on Wednesday. If Walker sits, Charbonnet catapults up to the range of a low-end RB2 even in a tough matchup.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Miller logged just 3 offensive snaps and didn’t record a single touch last week with Jamaal Williams back from injury against the Jaguars. Williams didn’t play a ton either as Alvin Kamara dominated the backfield work. Head Coach Dennis Allen said that the plan going forward is to get Miller and Williams more involved and balance out those touches more, but I don’t know how you can rely on a running back who has touched the ball more than 3 times just once in the last 4 games, even when he’s facing a defense that allows the 6^th-most RB points per game. The one game in that span with extended work for Kendre was a 34-0 drubbing of the Patriots. I don’t expect that kind of lopsided game this week, where the Saints are 1-point underdogs to the Colts.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Evans seemed to be in line for a significant workload last weekend after both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers were placed on IR, but instead the Rams promoted Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson off the street and let that duo handle all of the running back reps. Evans wasn’t on the field for a single offensive snap, and I don’t see that changing much this week.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Bigsby has totaled just 13 carries and 2 targets in the last 5 games combined. He continues to be off the fantasy radar unless something happens to Travis Etienne.

RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): The Ravens were up 28-0 by the middle of the 2^nd quarter last weekend, and Mitchell still only managed to play two snaps and touched the ball just once. If he’s not going to be involved even in garbage time, there’s no reason to roster him.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Tucker hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 3. He’s limited to just special teams now.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Palmer set a new season-high with 32 routes run last week against Atlanta, but he was targeted just twice, making his 6-target game in week 6 look more like an aberration than a sign of an increasing role. The Bucs’ targets will continue to be funneled to Evans & Godwin, and Palmer will continue to battle with Cade Otton, Deven Tompkins, and Rachaad White for what’s left over. I wouldn’t expect a big target total this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR3.

WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Johnston set a season-high last week for receiving yards with just 20. He’s running a sizeable number of routes, but he hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this season. He was outproduced in fantasy points last week by rookie teammate Derius Davis, who ran all of 5 routes against the Chiefs. At some point, the Chargers are going to actually get Johnston more involved, and maybe it happens this week against a bad Bears’ defense, but I’d be much more willing to live with it if he had a blow-up game from my bench than if he had another 2–3-point game from in my lineup. Davis just isn’t playing enough snaps to be worth consideration.

WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Scott was in a route on nearly 70% of the Bears’ dropbacks in week 7 (a season-high), but that turned into just 2 catches for 19 yards on 3 targets. He also added 14 rushing yards as a bonus, but with Bagent at QB, the Bears’ passing game likely won’t be explosive enough for an ancillary receiver like Scott to be fantasy-relevant. I liked his upside last week as a deep threat against a bad Raiders’ defense but won’t go back to that well against a bad Chargers’ defense given Bagent’s 2-yard aDOT last weekend. If Bagent isn’t going to push the ball down the field, Scott isn’t going to provide fantasy value.

WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Tucker was over a 50% route participation rate for the 2^nd game in a row last week, but he didn’t see the same deep targets he did in week 6. Tucker will always be fighting for the scraps left over by Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs, so if those few targets he sees are short ones, there’s not a lot of fantasy value there. His aDOT prior to week 7 was 27 yards. His aDOT in week 7 was just 7.3 yards. Maybe the long targets return with Jimmy Garoppolo likely back under center, but both of Tucker’s multi-target games have occurred while Jimmy G was sidelined with injury.  

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Bagent acquitted himself well in his first NFL start, executing a conservative game plan well in an impressive victory over the Raiders. He completed over 70% of his passes, but his average throw traveled just 2 yards downfield, and he averaged a meager 5.6 yards per attempt. I’d expect a similar gameplan this week, but this is a great matchup for any QB. The Bears are 8.5-point underdogs this week, so Bagent likely won’t get away with throwing fewer than 30 passes again, and the Chargers have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA. The ceiling here isn’t high even in this great matchup, but don’t be shocked if Bagent dinks and dunks his way to a low-end QB2 finish for the week. 5 out of the 6 QBs to face the Chargers this year have topped 20 fantasy points.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Reed’s usage hasn’t quite been what we’d hope for since Christian Watson’s return to the lineup. Reed averaged 6.3 targets and 50 yards per game in the first 4 games of the year (including week 4 when Watson played limited snaps in his first game back), but he’s averaged just 3 targets and 14 yards in the two games since, and logged route participation rates below 60% in both games. That kind of workload means he’s probably not a starting option in most leagues, but he does get a decent matchup this week. The Vikings have allowed the 7^th-most receiver points per game, and they’ve allowed the 8^th-most receiving yards and 2^nd-most yards after the catch to opposing slot receivers. When you pair that with Reed’s usage in scoring range (he’s got 6 of the team’s 14 targets within 10 yards of the end zone), there’s some sneaky upside here in deep leagues or in DFS lineups.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 8: @Mia.): The return of JuJu Smith-Schuster from the concussion protocol is enough to prevent me from giving a full-throated endorsement of Douglas for this week, but at some point, the Patriots have got to realize what they have here. Douglas is consistently earning targets when he’s on the field (25% target per route run rate), and he leads the receiver group in yards per target and yards per route run. The Patriots just have to keep giving him routes. If he plays the same role he did last week (71% route participation rate) against a Miami defense that allows the 9^th-most WR points per game, he’s a viable WR4/5 option. I don’t trust that will happen with JuJu back, but Douglas shouldn’t be sitting on the waiver wire in deeper leagues. He’s just 5% rostered on Sleeper.

WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 8: @SF): Iosivas isn’t an option for this week, but now would be a good time to scoop him off your league waiver wire in dynasty leagues if he’s still available. The Bengals are coming off a bye week, so most folks aren’t rushing to add the Bengals’ depth guys this week, but Iosivas has sneakily started to see his playing time increase, and he’s impressed in his limited opportunities. He was an un-thrown coach’s challenge flag away from a dazzling toe-tap catch in week 5 and followed that up with his first career TD in week 6 ahead of the bye week. He’s still only run 21 routes in the last two games, but it seems the Bengals may be grooming him to be the Tee Higgins replacement in 2024. He’s a much better perimeter option than Trenton Irwin, Tyler Boyd, or Charlie Jones, and he may have a few spike game opportunities this season given Higgins’ issues with staying on the field in recent seasons. Higgins has left games early with an injury 4 times since the start of last season and was inactive for another, and he’s currently battling a rib injury that he said may bother him all season. With that said, anything you get from Iosivas this year should be seen as a bonus. This is a dynasty stash with 2024 in mind.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Mayer’s usage took a step backward last weekend after his breakout game in week 6. He’s still playing ahead of Austin Hooper as the Raiders’ lead tight end, but a 52% route participation rate isn’t what you’re looking for from a TE1. That doesn’t mean he can’t have a useful fantasy day in week 8. The Lions have allowed the 2^nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and have allowed 5 different tight ends to pull in at least 4 receptions against them. That overall points per game number is skewed a bit by the big game from Mark Andrews last weekend, but I’d still expect a handful of targets to go Mayer’s way. He’s a passable fill-in this week if you’re in a pinch at the position, and he could be a fun play in showdown DFS contests for Monday Night Football.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully you enjoyed the reprieve from bye weeks and had a fruitful week 8, but we’ve got 4 teams on byes in week 9 including some every-week fantasy starters, so you may be back to searching for some lineup replacement options. As usual I’m here to help you navigate which rookies are viable for your fantasy lineup, but this week has an especially interesting wrinkle.

This week it appears there are 7 rookie QBs slated to start for their teams. With only 28 teams in action, that’s a quarter of the signal callers league wide. With CJ Stroud and Bryce Young, we know what to expect, but for the other 5, we have to ask what kind of impact they’ll have on the players around them, and which ones should you consider if you’re searching for a QB2 option? I dive into all 7 rookie QBs that are expected to start this week (and touch on an 8^th rookie QB just for fun), but there’s plenty more where that came from in this week’s report.

Can we count on any rookie running back not named Bijan Robinson this week? How big of an issue are the QB situations for Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, Michael Wilson, and Michael Mayer? Is this the week Tank Dell gets back on track? Keep reading and find out.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 9:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Bijan left some points on the field Sunday due to catching zero of the 5 targets that came his way, but he still had a respectable bounce-back after the headache fiasco in week 7, finding the end zone and finishing as the RB17 for the week. He was back to his usual role in the offense, and that’s a good sign moving forward. The matchup this week isn’t a great one, with the Vikings allowing the 6^th-fewest RB points per game and ranking 12^th in FTN’s run defense DVOA. Don’t let that scare you off. The Falcons are 4.5-point favorites with Minnesota starting rookie Jaren Hall at QB. There’s a chance Atlanta wins easily and can lean on the run game, and I wouldn’t count on Bijan catching zero passes again. Robinson has caught 4+ passes in 5 of the 7 full games he’s played. He may not be a slam dunk top-12 play this week, but at worst Bijan should be treated as a high-end RB2.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Flowers posted his worst game of the season in week 8, finishing with just 5 catches for 19 yards on 7 targets, but the underlying usage was still strong. He was in a route on 94% of the team dropbacks and earned a 24% target share. He’s still been a top-30 PPR receiver in 5 of 8 games on the year and should be in line for a bounce back game against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game. Week 8 was the first time Flowers was held below 50 scrimmage yards in a game this season. I don’t expect week 9 to be the 2^nd. He’s a strong WR3 this week.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 9: @Cin.): This might sound like an overreaction to a small sample size, but the only tight ends I’d start over Kincaid this week are Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Part of the reason I say that is because he’s helped by the tight end landscape this week - Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram, and George Kittle are all on byes, and TJ Hockenson just lost Kirk Cousins – but Kincaid has a huge role in the offense with Dawson Knox out, and he faces a great matchup this week. Kincaid was in a route on 85% of the team passing dropbacks last week and has earned 15 total targets in the last two games, and this week he faces a Bengals’ defense that has allowed the most TE points per game. Mark Andrews and George Kittle both posted top-3 finishes against this defense, Tyler Higbee recorded a top-10 game against them, and all of Harrison Bryant, Zach Ertz, and Josh Whyle found the end zone against the Bengals. Kincaid is a high floor, high ceiling option this week. Double-digit PPR points feels like a slam dunk for the rookie in this one.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. TB): My fears about Stroud were realized last week. With the Texans favored and facing a defense that has been much worse against the run than against the pass, Stroud logged his fewest pass attempts of the season, throwing for just 140 yards and no TDs. He did score a rushing TD to salvage the day, but you were likely hoping for more than a QB23 finish for the week if you started him. This week’s matchup is a little more conducive to a better fantasy output for Stroud. The Bucs have allowed the 11^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and have given up an average of 309 passing yards per game in 3 games since their bye. Only Justin Fields and Derek Carr have fallen short of 250 passing yards against them for the year. This week there are a bunch of QBs who are out of action, and I like Stroud’s chances to get back up to around 35 pass attempts and get back up to a borderline top-12 finish. He’s a safe start in 2-QB formats, and at least a passable option in 1-QB leagues.

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Young hasn’t exactly been setting the fantasy world ablaze this season, but his play has notably improved in the last 3 games. In the first 3 starts of the year, Bryce averaged 168 yards per game on 7.5 yards per completion and threw 2 TDs and 2 INTs. In the last 3 games, he’s averaged 233 yards per game on 10 yards per completion with 5 TDs and 2 INTs. The Panthers took some responsibility off Young’s plate and simplified the offense, and it’s working wonders for his performance. He could take another step forward this week against a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game and ranks 21^st in pass defense DVOA. Taysom Hill’s stats last week in a non-QB role skew the points allowed average a bit, but the Colts have still allowed 15+ fantasy points to 6 of the 8 actual QBs they’ve faced, and 17+ to 5 of them. 15+ points for Bryce Young would be his 2^nd best game of the year, which is what I think he’ll post in this matchup. Young may be a top-15 QB option given some of the lackluster choices available for week 9.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 9: @GB): I list Nacua here on the borderline mostly because of the uncertain status of Matthew Stafford for this week. Nacua seemingly had his 2^nd down game in the last 3 weeks with just 3 catches for 43 yards against Dallas, but he was targeted 6 times by Stafford in the first half of that game. After Stafford exited with a thumb injury, backup Brett Rypien targeted Puka just once in the second half. If Stafford is good to go this week, Nacua should still be a fine top-20 WR option against a Green Bay defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA. If Brett Rypien gets the start or if Stafford will be seriously limited, Puka becomes a risky WR3. I’d still lean toward giving him the nod in your lineups with some notable receivers on byes, but know that there is extra downside here if Stafford is out.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): I don’t feel 100% confident in starting Addison with Jaren Hall under center, but he’s still the team WR1 facing a defense that ranks 28^th in pass defense DVOA. Hall should be looking his way regularly, and he should manage to compile his way to a fantasy relevant performance. Addison might draw shadow coverage from AJ Terrell, but that didn’t work out great for Terrell last week against DeAndre Hopkins, and he doesn’t always get a shadow assignment. Addison has been targeted 8+ times in 3 of the last 4 games and found the end zone in all 4, and the Vikings shouldn’t shy away from him against a defense that is much better against the run than the pass. I’d treat Addison as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 this week.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 9: @Car.): Downs is more of a floor play than a ceiling option, but that floor has been rock solid for more than a month now. Downs has averaged nearly 9 targets per game in Gardner Minshew’s 4 starts, and he’s tallied at least 13 PPR points in all 4 of those games and in 5 of his last 6 games overall. Most teams haven’t had to throw a ton against Carolina. The Panthers have allowed the 8^th-fewest points per game to receivers, but they rank just a middling 14^th in pass defense DVOA. Downs should be a solid PPR WR3 again this week, even in a matchup where passing volume could be lower.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Rice’s final stat line last week of 4-56 on 5 targets wasn’t a week-winning performance, but it’s another solid game stacked by the rookie receiver in a week where his QB wasn’t at his best. His route participation rate reached 60%+ for the 2^nd week in a row, and he’s now reached 50 yards and/or scored a TD in 5 of his last 6 games. The Chiefs-Dolphins game has the highest Vegas point total of the week, so KC should be throwing plenty in a game with shootout potential. The Dolphins allow the 10^th-most WR points per game and rank 17^th in pass defense DVOA, and Pat Mahomes should look more like himself. I’m not sure I’d count on an earth-shattering performance from Rice, but another ho-hum WR3 game feels like a reasonable expectation in this matchup.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Levis put on quite a show in his NFL debut, racking up 4 TDs (3 of them on connections of more than 30 yards), and finishing as the QB6 for the week. He’s bound to be a hot waiver wire pickup in most leagues, but there’s a real possibility he comes crashing back to earth in week 9. On his throws that didn’t find the end zone, Levis was 15-for-25 for just 81 yards, and his two longest TD throws of the day were aided by an uncalled offensive pass interference and a blown coverage. Of course, a lot of QBs would have bad numbers if you took away their best plays. It’s promising that Levis is willing to uncork deep throws to his best receiver, and his TD toss to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was unquestionably a dime. There was a lot to like, but this week’s matchup is significantly tougher. The Falcons ranked just 28th in pass defense DVOA. The Steelers rank 9^th. Don’t count on another blow-up game from Levis, but he should be fine as a QB2 this week with limited QB options to choose from. The Steelers have allowed 220+ passing yards to every QB they’ve faced this year, and they’ll be without Minkah Fitzpatrick this week, so there’s still a nice floor for Levis, even if he doesn’t have the same ceiling.

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Demercado missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a toe injury, so his status for this weekend is up in the air, but the sledding will not be easy if he’s able to play. Running back is the one position that has had a semblance of success against the Browns’ defense this year. Cleveland is allowing merely the 10^th-fewest RB points per game this season compared to being in the top-5 vs the 3 other skill positions. They’ve shown some vulnerability on the ground since the bye, allowing decent rushing days to the 49ers, Colts, and Seahawks in the 3 games since, but they still rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA, and the Cards aren’t quite as effective on the ground as those teams. This may be Demercado’s last chance to showcase what he can do before the return of James Conner, so he may have a bit of extra motivation, but the injury has me worried. Even if Demercado plays, we could see Keaontay Ingram and Damien Williams mix in more often. Arizona should lean on the run game with Clayton Tune in line to make his first start, and Demercado is at least worth consideration if you’re in a pinch but keep an eye on the injury report and make sure the toe won’t keep him sidelined. If you’re planning to start him and he misses practice again on Friday, I’d start making other plans.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 9: @Pit.): It’s easy to look at advanced stats for Spears and get excited about him as a player – he ranks 2^nd among all running backs in forced missed tackles per touch and is the highest-graded rookie running back for the season according to PFF - but at some point, the touches have to be there. Spears has logged 10+ touches just twice in 7 games (never more than 11 in a game), and while he’s explosive enough to turn those limited touches into a good game here and there, it’s hard for you to rely on him in fantasy. He’s cracked the top-30 PPR backs 4 times this season, and the top-10 once. The matchup this week isn’t a bad one. The Steelers have allowed the 8^th-most points per game to opposing backs and rank 14^th in run defense DVOA. The question is how much damage can Spears do against them on 8-10 touches? He has some appeal as a fringe RB3 (slightly higher than that in PPR), but the chances that he drastically outperforms that ranking are not good. He logged his 2^nd-lowest snap share of the season in Levis’ first start at QB.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 9: @Bal.): Week 9 was a banner week for Charbonnet. It was the first time all season that he out-snapped Kenneth Walker III, and the first time all year that he finished as a top-30 PPR back. Pete Carroll rode the hot hand against the Browns, and Charbs had the hot hand. He ran twice as many routes as a receiver as Walker as well – just the 2^nd time he’s run more routes than Walker all season. That usage is great to see, but it remains to be seen if it was just a blip, or if it will continue going forward. Even if he sees similar usage this week, the Ravens are a tough test. Baltimore has allowed the 15th-fewest RB points per game, which doesn’t sound too intimidating, but they also rank 5^th in run defense DVOA. It’ll likely take at least 1 TD for Charbonnet to have a game where you’re happy you started him, and the Ravens have allowed just 3 RB scores for the season. Only 1 running back this year hit double-digit fantasy points against the Ravens without scoring a TD (Joe Mixon). You could start Charbonnet if you’re in a tight spot this week, but there’s not a lot of ceiling to chase.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 9: @NO): Roschon finally returned from his concussion last weekend and led the Bears’ backfield in snaps, but he still found himself mired in a 3-way committee with D’Onta Foreman and Darrynton Evans. Johnson finished the game with 6.1 PPR points on 6 carries and 4 targets, and while I expect that role to grow going forward, the matchup this week is tougher and Khalil Herbert’s eventual return looms in the not-too-distant future. The matchup with the Saints is especially tough on Roschon. Johnson is the Bears’ back who is most active in the passing game, and the Saints rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing backs and have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. The Saints haven’t allowed a running back to put up 25 or more receiving yards against them since week 2. I don’t expect Roschon’s share of the rushing work to increase enough this week to make him a viable RB3 in a tough matchup. I’d keep him sidelined in this one.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Dell’s breakout games in weeks 2 and 3 are starting to feel like distant objects in the rearview mirror at this point. The rookie tallied 20.2 and 25.5 PPR points in those two games and has totaled just 18.3 PPR points since. He did miss some time with injury, but that’s still 2 and a half games worth of production. This week seems like as good a week as any to get back on track. The Texans will be without Robert Woods, and Tampa Bay allows the 9^th-most WR points per game, but Woods also missed last week’s game when Dell was out-targeted by Noah Brown. There’s still enough upside here to treat Dell as a WR4 this week, but be aware that he’s a volatile option.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): The Packers passing game has mostly been messy this season, with Jordan Love looking unlikely to be the long-term answer for the franchise at QB, but that hasn’t stopped Jayden Reed from putting up a 30+ yard catch and/or a TD in 6 out of 7 games this season. He’s quietly been the WR48 in points per game despite only earning 6+ targets 3 times, and there’s no reason he can’t finish right around that WR48 mark again this week. The Rams have only allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. If the Packers are forced to throw the ball, Reed should have enough upside to warrant real WR4 consideration. That likely only happens if Matthew Stafford starts this game. If Stafford sits and it’s Brett Rypien under center, Green Bay may be able to play from in front and lean on the run game, which would limit Reed’s ceiling. Pay attention to Stafford’s status if you’re considering Reed in a lineup.

WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 9: @Bal.): JSN scored a TD for the second week in a row last Sunday against the Browns, but his playing time and usage took a hit with the return of DK Metcalf. Smith-Njigba logged his lowest route participation rate since week 3 (64%), and more concerning was his aDOT of less than half a yard. He’s had an aDOT below 6 yards in 5 games this season and averaged just under 20 yards per game in those contests. In the 2 games where his aDOT has been higher than 6 yards, he's averaged just over 55 yards per game. The combination of fewer routes and shorter targets is bad news when you’re facing a defense that ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5^th-fewest WR points per game. Jake Bobo scored a TD as well last weekend, but his route participation rate was back under 30% with Metcalf back. He may have a splash week every now and then, but he’s not on the field enough to trust in lineups, especially against such a tough defense.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Wilson posted his 5^th game of 50+ yards of the season last Sunday against the Ravens, but Arizona’s QB switch this week could be a speed bump for the rookie, assuming he’s even on the field. Like teammate Emari Demercado, Wilson missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday and might not be able to suit up on Sunday. He’d built a decent rapport with Joshua Dobbs, but the Cardinals seem ready to hand the keys to Clayton Tune this week in an unforgiving matchup with the Browns. Cleveland has allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game, and Wilson has reached 11+ PPR points just once all season. Wilson hasn’t shown a high ceiling, and if he plays the downside in this matchup is just too great to trust Wilson with a rookie QB making his first start.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 9: @LV): Daniel Jones’ return to the lineup makes Hyatt a bit too risky to trust this week. Jones has nearly twice as many pass attempts as Tyrod Taylor this season, but 64% of Hyatt’s targets this season have come from Tyrod. His role had taken a big step forward in Taylor’s two starts, and it remains to be seen if that increased usage will continue with Jones back at QB. The Raiders allow the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, and they rank 13^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. The less-than-ideal matchup and questionable role with Jones back means this is not a spot where I’d want to use Hyatt.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Johnston posted his best game of the season last week against the Bears, setting season highs in targets (6), receptions (5), and receiving yards (50), but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance this week against the Jets. Only 3 receivers this season have caught for more than 50 yards or tallied 10+ fantasy points against the Jets – Stefon Diggs, AJ Brown, and CeeDee Lamb. If you think Johnston should be mentioned in the same breath as those guys, then feel free to take your chances. I’m not sure he’s a top-50 option this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 9: @NO): Bagent has made two starts so far this season. He finished those games as QB21 and QB22 despite facing two abysmal defenses in the Raiders and Chargers. The Chargers allowed 21+ fantasy points to 5 of the first 6 QBs they faced, but Bagent managed just 13.2 fantasy points against them and threw 2 interceptions last weekend. If Bagent has been finishing as a fringe QB2 in plus matchups, what’s he going to do against a good defense this weekend? The Saints have allowed the 6^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. I have zero faith that Bagent will get back on track in a tougher matchup this week. I’d view him as a bottom-2 QB option among the 28 guys starting in week 9.

QB Clayton Tune, ARI (Wk. 9: @Cle.): It was a surprise this week when the Cardinals announced immediately after their loss to the Ravens that Joshua Dobbs would start in week 9, and then reversed course just a day later and said that they weren’t sure who would start, but that Dobbs was benched, and it wouldn’t be him. The confusion was cleared up on Tuesday when the Cards dealt Dobbs to the Minnesota Vikings. With Kyler Murray close to a return, the Cardinals were smart to get draft capital back for Dobbs, but Murray likely won’t be quite ready to start this weekend. That means Tune will get thrown to the wolves against Myles Garrett and the Browns’ defense. Cleveland ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 5^th-fewest QB points per game, allowing less than a dozen points to 4 of the 7 QBs they’ve faced this year. Tune is a gamer, but I wouldn’t expect any heroics in this brutal matchup. The Cardinals have a Vegas implied point total of just 14.75 points, one of the lowest totals for any team this season. There are 28 starting QBs this week, and I’d rank Tune in the bottom-2 of all of them along with Tyson Bagent.

QB Tommy DeVito, NYG (Wk. 9: @LV): Daniel Jones is reportedly going to be able to return this week and start against the Raiders, but if for some reason those reports are wrong, DeVito shouldn’t be anywhere near your starting lineups. Here’s a quick recap of DeVito’s NFL action last weekend: He entered the game late in the first half after Tyrod Taylor was injured. Brian Daboll called 7 dropbacks in his first 10 plays as the Giants tried to get points before the half. Those dropbacks resulted in 2 scrambles for 8 yards, 2 sacks, and 3 incompletions. In the 2^nd half, Daboll called 34 designed run plays and just 2 pass plays. He finally let DeVito throw again in overtime, and the results were 2 completions on 3 attempts for negative-1 yard. The Jets are a very good defense, and the weather was bad, but it’s very difficult to play QB for more than half of a football game and throw for negative passing yards (DeVito’s total passing line was 2-for-7 for negative-1 yard). It was clear that the Giants didn’t trust DeVito to throw the ball, and if they’re forced to start him again this week, you shouldn’t trust him either. If stuck without a QB2 in a superflex league, I would start a running back, receiver, or tight end rather than roll with DeVito.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): The Saints talked about getting Miller and Jamaal Williams more involved after Alvin Kamara played virtually all the snaps against the Jaguars in week 7, and for Miller that meant 3 carries and 1 target in week 8. The Bears have been one of the stingiest run defenses in the league in recent weeks, allowing just 152 running back rushing yards on 62 carries in their last 4 games (2.45 yards per carry). Miller’s limited role against that defense isn’t worth consideration in fantasy lineups.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 9: @Hou.): Palmer led the Bucs in routes run in week 8 and reached 6+ targets for the 2^nd time in the last 3 games. He still finished with just 22 receiving yards and has only exceeded 25 in a game once all year. This week the Bucs face a Houston defense that has allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, and Baker Mayfield should make a concerted effort to get the ball to Mike Evans this week after the star receiver was shut down until late in last week’s game with the Bills. Don’t look for more than 5-6 PPR points out of Palmer this week unless he finds the end zone.

WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 9: @NO): Scott has been more involved in the offense since Tyson Bagent stepped in at QB, but that’s meant 10 total targets and 42 receiving yards in the last 3 weeks. There’s just not much upside here against a New Orleans defense that ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA.

WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Tucker pulled in multiple receptions in weeks 6 & 7, but then took a backseat to Hunter Renfrow in week 8. The Raiders’ passing game was a dumpster fire on Monday night, with just 4 completions to a receiver all game, and I’m not sure that firing the coaches and benching Jimmy Garoppolo for a 4^th-round rookie is the thing that fixes it. Even if things improve this week for the Raiders, the re-emergence of Renfrow makes Tucker a non-factor for now.

WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): Iosivas found the end zone for the second consecutive game last weekend, but he’s run just 9 routes and been targeted twice in those games. He’s not someone you can rely on without injuries to Higgins or Chase at the top of the depth chart.

WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): You could throw a speculative dart throw at Boutte if you’d like to in deeper dynasty leagues after teammate Kendrick Bourne suffered a torn ACL last Sunday, but realistically there’s no guarantee that it means playing time is coming for Boutte. He may still be 6^th on the WR depth chart behind DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pop Douglas, Jalen Reagor, and Tyquan Thornton. I’d suggest letting someone else waste the roster spot for now.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Mayer’s routes continued to climb in week 8. He’s now seemingly completed his takeover of the starting tight end job after logging a 79% route participation rate on Monday night, but that resulted in just 1 catch for 19 yards on 2 targets. Of course, that could change this week, but the switch to Aidan O’Connell at QB doesn’t bode well for the tight ends if his previous playing time is any indication. O’Connell has attempted 52 passes this season, and just 3 of them have targeted a tight end (all of them to Austin Hooper). Mayer logged a 30% route participation rate in O’Connell’s lone start this year and wasn’t targeted. This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 8^th-fewest TE points per game and have allowed just one tight end in the last 3 weeks to reach 20 yards against them. Mayer’s full-time role means he could put up a top-12 performance, but the evidence we have suggests that it’s pretty unlikely. I’d view him as a borderline top-20 TE for the week.

Rookies on byes in Week 9: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN, RB Tank Bigsby, JAX, WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN, WR Ronnie Brown, SF, TE Sam LaPorta, DET, TE Brenton Strange, JAX

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL, TE Payne Durham, TB

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Jaren Hall, MIN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Hall will get thrown into the fire this weekend with Kirk Cousins done for the year, Nick Mullens still on IR, and newly acquired Josh Dobbs not up to speed yet, but the rookie gets a somewhat soft landing spot in Atlanta. The Falcons are fresh off being shredded by another rookie QB (Will Levis), and they rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA and have given up 14+ fantasy points to each of the last 7 QBs they’ve faced. Hall has weapons in Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and KJ Osborn, and didn’t look overwhelmed when forced into duty to close out the win over the Packers last week. I would be surprised if he posts a top-12 finish for the week, but top-20 is certainly a reasonable hope. I’d prefer Hall over fellow rookie starters Tyson Bagent and Clayton Tune if you’re in a pinch, and I don’t think there’s any guarantee that Mullens or Dobbs will take this job from him when they’re ready if he plays well.

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): Of all the rookie starters being thrust into duty this week, O’Connell is the one with the longest guaranteed runway as a starter. Clayton Tune is just keeping the spot warm for Kyler Murray. Jaren Hall might be replaced by Nick Mullens or Josh Dobbs as soon as week 10. Tyson Bagent is starting until Justin Fields is healthy. Will Levis might keep the job once Tannehill is ready to return, but we don’t know that yet. But O’Connell’s situation is different. He’s been named the starter going forward, which means he’s definitely worth a pickup in 2-QB leagues even if I don’t have a ton of faith in him this week. The Giants’ defense has been playing better than you might think in recent weeks. They now rank 16^th in pass defense DVOA and have only allowed 1 QB in their last 5 games to score 15+ fantasy points against them. They’ve also forced 6 QB turnovers in the last 4 games. O’Connell has turned the ball over 4 times in about 5 quarters of NFL action, so don’t be surprised if he’s responsible for multiple turnovers this week. On the plus side, AOC was at least good for Raiders two best players in his first start, doling out 63% of his targets to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. I’d treat O’Connell as a fringe QB2 this week, but the Raiders’ pass catching weapons are talented enough that he could emerge as a reliable QB2 in the back half of the season.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Douglas has quietly worked his way up a shaky Patriots’ WR depth chart and might now find himself at the top of it after Kendrick Bourne suffered a torn ACL last weekend. Douglas led the team in week 8 with an 84% route participation rate, and he’s earned 13 targets in the last two weeks. That hasn’t resulted in crooked fantasy point totals in the Pats’ lackluster passing game (he’s totaled 19.3 PPR points in the last two weeks), but he gets an extremely favorable matchup this week and could be in line for a spike week. The Commanders rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed at least one WR to catch for 75+ yards in each of their last 7 games (100+ yards in 6 of those games). We don’t know what the WR usage is going to look like without Kendrick Bourne, but one thing I feel pretty confident about is that Douglas is the only WR that the coaching staff fully trusts right now. He’s going to continue to run a route on 80%+ of the passing dropbacks, and he’s consistently drawn targets this year when he’s on the field. I’d view it as a disappointing week if he doesn’t see 7+ targets against the Commanders on Sunday. If anyone in this offense is going to hit that 75-yard mark against Washington Sunday, it’s Douglas. I’d view him as a WR4 with upside in this juicy matchup, even in spite of the Pats’ struggles throwing the ball.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Mingo’s full-time role hasn’t translated to fantasy production yet in his young career, but he’s got sneaky upside this week against the Colts. Bryce Young’s play has been improving steadily, raising the floor for all the Panthers’ pass catchers. Adam Thielen has continued to dominate targets for the Panthers, but there are a couple signs that point to this being a potential spike week for Mingo. For starters, the Colts play the least amount of man coverage in the league. Thielen has been targeted on a whopping 34% of his routes against man coverage, but that number slips to just 21% against zone. The Colts also rank 30^th in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #2 receiver. Mingo is coming off his best fantasy game of the season (4 catches for 62 yards), and in this matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised if he duplicates it. That still makes him just a WR4 option, even with a handful of byes this week, but he should easily hit the over on his receiving props for this weekend.

WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): The Browns traded Donovan Peoples-Jones to the Lions at the trade deadline this week, opening up quite a bit of playing time in their offense. DPJ had logged a 78% route participation rate for the season prior to the trade, and the Browns have 3 internal candidates to step up and take that playing time. Those candidates are Marquise Goodwin, David Bell, and Cedric Tillman. Goodwin would probably be the one who could best duplicate the specific role Peoples-Jones was playing, running clear-out routes to create space for Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore, but Tillman is the most well rounded of the group. If the Browns want to put the best receiver on the field, Tillman will get the biggest jump in playing time. It’s likely that all 3 players see more snaps in the near term, but I’d bet on Tillman’s talent eventually winning out, and the rookie being a meaningful part of this offense when the fantasy playoffs roll around. He’s worth considering as a stash in deep redraft leagues, and certainly shouldn’t be on the wire in dynasty leagues. If he’s available in yours, you should rectify that.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): Musgrave’s usage hasn’t been great since his return from his week 4 concussion. He’s averaged a reasonable 5 targets per game, but his average target depth has plummeted. The Packers have been throwing to him just 2.7 yards downfield in the last 3 games, and he’s averaged less than 5 yards per target in those games (compared to 8.3 ypt in the first 3 games of the season when he was targeted further downfield). This week’s matchup with the Rams could be a prime opportunity for Musgrave to get back on track. The Rams have allowed the 4^th-most tight end points per game for the year, and in the past 5 games they’ve coughed up 4 tight end scores and allowed 4 different tight ends to hit 40+ receiving yards. No team in the league has allowed more yards per target to tight ends than the Rams. I wouldn’t treat Musgrave as a top-12 tight end this week. The Packers’ passing game has struggled too much to have that kind of confidence in him, but there’s more upside than usual if you’re digging deep for a starter or are looking for a cheap option in DFS.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Oh this is gonna be an interesting week for sure.

Looking down the list of games and there aren’t too many, if any, no-brainers! The Browns are sitting on the second highest line this week … … … need I say more?? So this could be a make or break week for us.

No point in delaying the inevitable any longer, let’s get going!

Week 9 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – BALTIMORE over Seattle – Baltimore has been playing with a purpose lately and will be hard to beat down the stretch.

13 – CLEVELAND over Arizona – Again, the Browns being this high should tell you enough about the state of the Cardinals right now.

12 – NEW ORLEANS over Chicago – Looks for Derek Carr to go off in this one. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that DEREK CARR WILL THROW FOR AT LEAST 375 YARDS AND 3 TOUCHDOWNS THIS WEEKi.

11 – LAS VEGAS over New York Giants – Safe to say the Raiders will be playing with a new sense of hope this week!

10 – Washington over NEW ENGLAND – The Commanders are 3-5 but could very well be 6-2 at this point.

9 – PHILADELPHIA over Dallas – This will be the first of two home team winning matchups this season for these two.

8 – Los Angeles Chargers over NEW YORK JETS – This is your Monday Night game…enjoy!

7 – HOUSTON over Tampa Bay – The Texans are an intriguing team that I just don’t think Tampa can handle

6 – ATLANTA over Minnesota – Atlanta is catching the Vikings at the perfect time!

5 – CICINNATI over Buffalo – Sunday is going to end with a fun one if the Bengals keep playing the way they have been.

4 – Miami over KANSAS CITY (in Germany) – This should definitely generate a lot of interest in Europe!

3 – Tennessee over PITTSBURGH – A road game against the Steelers defense will be a solid test to the legitimacy of Will Levis.

2 – GREEN BAY over Los Angeles Rams – No Stafford, no win – that simple,

1 – Indianapolis over CAROLINA –This game lost a LOT of interest when Anthony Richardson went down.