Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

What do you say here?

We all love football, that’s a given – especially if you’re reading this. Regardless of how your team is doing it is appointment television on a Sunday afternoon. It’s one of the greatest escapes from the real world.

This week though, the real world hit back, and hit back hard!

After what happened in Cincinnati last week, every single aspect of football, basketball, and sports in general immediately turned right back into being just a game. Thank God the news through this week has been nothing but positive and we can at least try to get back to our regular Sunday afternoon escape.

Prayers up for Damar Hamlin!

Before we get into the games, I just wanted to say thank you again for following along this year! I hope I helped you in your pools this year…and I’ll see you in September!

Week 18 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – BUFFALO over New England – Safe to say that we are all Bills fans this week

15 – SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona – The 9ers simply just look good. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE 49ERS WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL THIS YEAR.

14 – SEATTLE over Los Angeles Rams – I wish the Lions would be playing for a playoff spot Sunday Night, but the Seahawks are going to be selfish and say THEY want to be in the playoffs instead…so selfish!

13 – Kansas City over LAS VEGAS – Stop me if you’ve heard this before but … … … FIRE…JOSH.MCDANIELS!

12 – GREEN BAY over Detroit – The Packers will end up sneaking in to the playoffs…how did the NFC let this happen??

11 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – It’s been a while since there has been this meaningless of a Browns/Steelers matchup.

10 – CINCINNATI over Baltimore – It going to be a little weird to see a game played on that field this week.

9 – Minnesota over CHICAGO – The Bears have developed Justin Fields and will end up with the first pick in the Draft, this was the perfect season for them.

8 – PHILADELPHIA over New York Giants – The Eagles are playing for the #1 seed and the Giants can’t do better or worse than the #6 seed…simple math here.

7 – WASHINGTON over Dallas – This just seems like the type of game the Cowboys lose.

6 – JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee – The Jaguars are winning the AFC South – whoduh thunk it?? Well, if you read Bold Prediction from a few months ago, you would know that I thunk it :)

5 – New York Jets over MIAMI – Mike White being out is bad for the Jets…but Flacco starting instead of Wilson means they can win this one.

4 – NEW ORLEANS over Carolina – The schedule says this game has to be played.

3 – DENVER over Los Angeles Chargers – The Chargers really don’t have anything to play for so this is Russell Wilson’s time to shine!

2 – ATLANTA over Tampa Bay – Can’t see the Bucs caring about this game too much.

1 – Houston over INDIANAPOLIS – A road win to lose the first pick in the draft is the perfect way for the Texans to end the season.

Folk, give yourselves a round of applause! We all did it!!

We have all gotten through the pain and torment that is the annual six to seven month period of our lives that does NOT include football!

Yes, we got a small taste of football with a full college schedule this past weekend. But, I mean, come on! There’s nothing like a full Sunday of the NFL.

I don’t know about you, but I’d say that it’s been LONG enough, let’s get back at it!

Week 1 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – BALTIMORE over Houston – This will be the first of many Sunday’s Texans’ fans will be repeatedly telling themselves, “we’re rebuilding…we’re rebuilding…we’re rebuilding…”

15 – MINNESOTA over Tampa Bay – It seems like all of the NFC North hype has gone to Detroit and Chicago. I think the Vikings sends a bit of a reminder to the league this week.

14 – WASHINGTON over Arizona – Here something that won’t be a surprise to anyone in Glendale, apparently. My first BOLD PREDICTION of the season is that when the season ends, THE CARDINALS WILL BE ON THE CLOCK AFTER WINNING NO MORE THAN

TWO GAMES.

13 – SEATTLE over Los Angeles Rams – Cooper Kupp or no Cooper Kupp, what has happened to the Rams over the last couple of years?

12 – NEW ORLEANS over Tennessee – On behalf of the Raider Nation … we miss you, Derek :’(

11 – KANSAS CITY over Detroit – There’s something about this that makes me want to pick the Lions, but even with the Kelce uncertainty, its still the Chiefs.

10 – Cincinnati over CLEVELAND – If Burrow ends up not playing, feel free to drop this one a few lines, but still pick the Bengals.

9 – Jacksonville over INDIANAPOLIS – The Jags have gone from a laughing stock to being one of the more exciting teams in the league in just a couple years…gives me hope as a Raiders fan!

8 – Philadelphia over NEW ENGLAND – The dominant Eagles defense from a year ago got better…that’s scary!

7 – CHICAGO over Green Bay – Soak it in Bears fans, this is the season that you have been waiting for when dealing with your northern counterparts.

6 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Dallas – People overlooked the Giants last season – don’t make the same mistake again this season.

5 – Buffalo over NEW YORK JETS – I refuse to get caught up in the Hard Knocks hype and pick the Jets against a far superior opponent.

4 – ATLANTA over Carolina – The NFC South should be fun to watch this year … not good … but fun.

3 – San Francisco over PITTSBURGH – Kenny Pickett still has to show me something before I pick him to beat the 49ers in the potential Game of the Week.

2 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Miami – Potential playoff matchup in week 1 that the Chargers win simply because they are the home team.

1 – Las Vegas over DENVER – The Russell Wilson trade last season proved to be overrated for the Broncos last season…expect the same from the Sean Payton hire this season.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Months of anticipation have finally brought us to the precipice of another NFL season. Your fantasy drafts are done, and now it’s time to start setting weekly lineups and watch the fantasy points roll in. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, my task each week is to help you figure out what to do with the players that are hardest to predict in fantasy – the rookies. If you don’t spend your summer grinding college film or closely monitoring NFL training camp reports, you might struggle to know what to expect from the rookies you’ve drafted on a weekly basis. Luckily, I’m here to help.

Each week I’ll group the fantasy-relevant rookies into 5 categories – The rookies you know you should start, the rookies you know you should sit, the borderline rookies I’d lean toward starting, the borderline rookies I’d lean toward sitting, and some deep league sleepers, stashes, and cheap DFS options. For each player, I'll provide some additional stats or context to help you make the decision that works best for your team. I can’t stress enough that you should read the specifics and not just what header a player is listed under, and then apply it to your own roster and league settings before making your own decision of who to start. I’m not here to tell you what to do. I’m here to give you info to help you decide what to do for yourself.

For week 1, this task is especially difficult. I try to be more conservative with rookies early in the season until we have some NFL stats and usage data to judge them by, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t use any rookies this weekend. We can still lean on preseason usage and 2022 defensive stats of their opponents to help determine which rookies are usable this weekend. Defenses change from year to year, so take the defensive rankings with a grain of salt, but it’s unlikely that a team that was awful against the run a year ago will suddenly be good against it this year unless they made major changes.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

That’s enough preamble for this week. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): You’re not sitting your first-round pick in week 1. The Panthers were a middling run defense last year (ranked 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA), but no team was more efficient running the football than the Atlanta Falcons last season, and Bijan is an upgrade over every back who toted the rock for them in ’22. Week one should be his coming out party in a game where the Falcons are 3.5-point favorites. Fire him up with confidence.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 1: @KC): Like Bijan above, you drafted Gibbs too high to sit him in week one. With Jameson Williams sidelined for the first 6 weeks of the season, the Lions’ running backs will likely see even more receiving work than usual early in the season. The Detroit backfield had a 21% target share last season, and no team in the league allowed more running back catches per game in ‘22 than the Chiefs. Gibbs is a great bet for 5+ catches in his debut, and if the Lions can keep this game competitive, he’s got top-10 running back upside this week, especially in PPR formats.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Before I dive in on Young, I want to clarify that I’d lean towards starting the Panthers’ rookie signal caller in Superflex leagues only. In 1-QB leagues, I’d leave him on the bench this week. The matchup is good but not great (Atlanta allowed the 13^th-most QB points in 2022), and Carolina is short-handed at wide receiver this week with DJ Chark likely out, and both Terrace Marshall and Adam Thielen limited in practice this week by injury. If you’re looking for reasons to be confident in Young this week, look no further than the Falcons’ blitz rates and pressure rates from last season. The Falcons had the 4^th-lowest blitz rate in the league and were dead last in QB pressure rate. They changed defensive coordinators this offseason, bringing in Ryan Nielsen from the Saints, but the Saints had the 6^th-lowest blitz rate and 4^th-lowest pressure rate in ’22. If Bryce has time in the pocket to pick apart the Falcons’ defense, I like his chances of turning in a mid-range QB2 performance in his debut.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. LAR): It may be hard to make room in your lineup for Charbonnet this week given that there are no byes, and you probably didn’t draft him as a starter, but he’s got a great opportunity to make a splash in week 1 if you’re in deeper leagues or need a stand-in for Alvin Kamara or JT this week. The Rams stripped down their defense around Aaron Donald, and they’re going to struggle to slow down most competent offenses. The Seahawks certainly have a competent offense (they ranked 9^th in points scored and 13^th in total yards in ’22), and they may look to ease Kenneth Walker III in as he comes back from a preseason groin injury. Walker should be able to play in week 1, but Charbonnet will likely get more chances to spell him than you’d expect, especially if the Seahawks are able to pull away on the scoreboard. Seattle is a 5-point favorite, but I think this could be more lopsided than that. 15+ touches against a bad defense isn’t out of the question for Charbs in week 1.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. TB): The Vikings aren’t playing the same games with Addison that they did with Justin Jefferson in his rookie year. There’s no pretense about Addison sitting to start the year behind a veteran like Bisi Johnson. Addison sat out the entire preseason along with the rest of the starters and should be locked in as the WR2 to open the season. The Vikings are a team that figures to throw the ball a lot this season, and the Buccaneers allowed the 8^th-most PPR points per game to wide receivers last year. There’s an element of the unknown here since we haven’t seen the Vikings’ first-string offense at all this preseason, but I like Addison and an upside WR3/flex option this week. The Vikings are tied for the 4^th-highest implied point total this week in Vegas odds.

WR Marvin Mims, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. LV): Mims was an intriguing late pick in drafts coming into the preseason, but injuries to Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy have made him the opening day WR2 in what should be a much-improved offense under Sean Payton. The Raiders ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA in 2022, and while they brought in Marcus Peters to improve the secondary, Mims should mostly avoid his coverage. Courtland Sutton figures to be the top target earner in week 1, but things are wide open beyond that in this passing game. 6+ targets is very possible for Mims, and he’s an upside WR4 this week in a good matchup.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Richardson gets the starting nod for week 1 and his expected rushing output will give him top-12 upside every single week, but I would be cautious with him in his NFL debut. We’ve seen 8 prominent mobile QBs make their first NFL start in the last 5 years (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Desmond Ridder, and Malik Willis). None of them have finished as a top-10 QB in their first start. Kyler finished as QB11, Hurts as QB12, and Lamar as QB13, and none of the others finished higher than QB20. I like Richardson’s chances to post double-digit rushing attempts in this game against a Jacksonville defense that allowed the 3^rd-most QB rush yards per game last year, but I just don’t know that he has the ceiling to outweigh the potential downside in 1-QB formats this week. You should absolutely be starting him in Superflex leagues, but I’d look for safer options in 1-QB formats.

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 1: @Bal.): Stroud gets the starting nod for week 1, but the preseason showed us that he’s still got some work to do before he should be plugged into lineups. The Ravens were just a middling QB defense last season (14^th-fewest QB points allowed in ’22), but they ranked 5^th in the league in sacks last season and should have no problem getting after Stroud with the Texans missing starting tackle Tytus Howard. You might not have better options in Superflex leagues, but I’d lean towards starting a different QB2 ahead of him if you can.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 1: @Ind.): Bigsby should open the season in a backfield committee with Travis Etienne, but he’s on the wrong side of the committee. Etienne handled two-thirds of the short down & distance snaps with the first-team offense and ran more than 3 times as many receiving routes as Bigsby this preseason. Goal line work and receiving work are the high-value touches for fantasy, and those should go to Etienne at least early on this season. The Colts would be a favorable matchup if we knew Bigsby would get significant usage (they allowed the 8^th-most PPR points to running backs last season), but as the Jaguars’ clear RB2, I’d keep him sidelined this week.

RB Evan Hull, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Hull may have some appeal to you this week if you have him in deeper leagues. The Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss as they take on the Jaguars, leaving just Deon Jackson and Hull in the backfield. I expect the Colts will elevate Jake Funk from the practice squad to serve as the RB3, but Jackson and Hull should see the bulk of the work. If we knew for sure that Jackson would handle the early-down work and Hull would handle the passing-down work, I’d like Hull a bit more in week 1 - the Colts are 5-point underdogs who should have to throw more than they want to, and the Jaguars allowed the 2^nd-most RB catches per game last year – but I don’t think the workload split will be that clean. In the team’s final preseason game, Jackson and Hull both worked full drives while the first team offense was in the game, with Jackson playing 2 or 3 drives for every 1 that Hull played. That kind of workload isn’t going to get him to fantasy relevance in week 1. Take a wait-and-see approach and keep him in mind for week 2 vs. the Texans if his usage looks good this week and Moss remains out.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): There’s a lot of excitement this season about the new-look Ravens’ offense under Todd Monken. They should throw the ball significantly more than they have in years past, but I’m not sure they’ll need to throw a ton in week 1. The Ravens are 10-point favorites in this game, and the Texans were significantly better at defending the pass than the run last season. The defensive scheme could look a lot different this year under new head coach DeMeco Ryans. Former coach Lovie Smith is one of the godfathers of the Tampa-2 defense. Ryans figures to call more cover-3 and cover-4 and be more aggressive with blitzing. The Texans had the third-lowest blitz rate in the league last year. Those new coverage schemes could open up the short middle of the field for Zay to work some magic, but I’d still prefer to wait until we see how targets are distributed in this offense before getting Flowers into any lineups, especially since game script should keep the Ravens running the ball this week.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. LAR): JSN suffered a wrist injury in camp that made it look like he might be sidelined for the first game or two of the season, but he returned to practice this week and has a very real chance of playing in the opener Sunday. If he’s able to go, I’d expect that the Seahawks don’t immediately throw him into a full workload after he got such limited practice time in camp. If he draws even a handful of targets in the opener, I’d see that as a win. Smith-Njigba is eventually going to make his presence felt in this offense, but I wouldn’t trust him to do it in week 1, even in a plus matchup against a Rams defense that allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game last year and got substantially worse in the offseason.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Mingo enters week 1 as the Panthers’ WR2 behind Adam Thielen if preseason usage is to be trusted. Mingo was in a route on 94% of Bryce Young’s preseason dropbacks, and he earned a 20% target rate on those routes. What concerns me is that only 50% of those targets were catchable. He and Bryce were just not fully on the same page. Mingo’s got a little extra upside this week with the rest of the WR group battling injuries, but I wouldn’t treat him as anything more than a WR4 this week who is a better play in non-PPR and half-PPR formats rather than full PPR. That WR4 designation would only apply if Adam Thielen sits this one out. I’d slide Mingo lower if Thielen is able to play. The former Viking had a 35% target share from Young in the preseason, and all those targets were catchable.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Johnston has a ton of potential this year in what should be a high-powered, high-volume Chargers passing game, but that potential will likely wait a few weeks to shine through. The Chargers sat their starters in the final preseason game, and at wide receiver that meant Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joshua Palmer. Johnston was on the field for that game, signaling that he’s not yet a starter in this offense. The talent will eventually win out and he’ll leapfrog Palmer for the WR3 role, but it may take a few weeks for that to happen. For now, you should leave Johnston parked on your bench.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 1: @Was.): Wilson will open the season as the WR2 for the Cardinals behind Marquise Brown, but this is not an offense that you want to target for fantasy lineups. Whether it’s Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune under center, this team figures to struggle badly on offense. They have the lowest implied point total of week 1 at just 15.5 points. Wilson should get plenty of playing time and a healthy number of targets this season, but he’ll likely be a fringe flex play until Kyler Murray returns (IF Kyler Murray returns). In week 1, Wilson faces a Washington defense that allowed the 9^th-fewest PPR points to wide receivers lined up out wide in 2022.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Kincaid has been one of the more polarizing players in this year’s draft class. On the one hand, the Bills already have a pretty solid young tight end in Dawson Knox and rookie tight ends rarely ever produce in fantasy. On the other hand, all reports out of camp are that Kincaid will be used all over the formation and that he’s been a perfect fit in the offense and has a nice rapport with Josh Allen. I think Kincaid is going to be a fringe TE1 as a rookie and wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to start him this week, but I don’t love this matchup for him. The Jets ranked 4^th in pass defense DVOA last season and returned pretty much everyone, and while they were worse against tight ends last year than against wide receivers, they were mostly susceptible to in-line tight ends, which is the role Dawson Knox will play most often. Don’t be surprised if Knox finds the end zone and outscores Kincaid on Monday night.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Clayton Tune, ARI (Wk. 1: @Was.): Tune has a chance to be the starter in week 1 (Jonathan Gannon has declined to name a starter in hopes of keeping some sort of strategic advantage), but even if he gets the nod, you shouldn’t consider starting Tune unless forced to. The Commanders ranked 13^th in pass defense DVOA, and were 10^th in QB pressure rate in 2022, and there’s a chance they get Chase Young back for the opener. The Cardinals look like one of the worst teams in the league and have an implied point total of just 15.5 points in this game. Tune is probably a bottom-3 starting option among all starting QBs if he gets the start in week 1.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. GB): Johnson will have a ton of upside as the season progresses in what should be a very run-heavy offense for Chicago, but Khalil Herbert has entrenched himself as the RB1 on this team to open the season after seeing two-thirds of the team rushing attempts with the first team offense this preseason. Roschon needs to work his way into a bigger role before you can consider him in lineups.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 1: @NO): Spears has earned the Titans’ RB2 job in training camp and is electric with the ball in hands, but the problem is that his RB2 spot is behind RB1 Derrick Henry, who dominates backfield touches in Tennessee. In the games he played, Henry handled 89% of the running back rushing attempts and 51% of the running back targets for the Titans in 2022. Maybe that changes since Spears is an upgrade over Hassan Haskins, Dontrell Hilliard, and Julius Chestnut, but the likeliest place for Spears to contribute is in the passing game, and the Saints allowed the 5^th-fewest running back receiving yards in 2022. Keep Tyjae benched for week one.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Miller is battling a hamstring injury that could keep him sidelined in week 1. Even if he plays, I’d expect him to function as the clear RB2 behind Jamaal Williams. It’s a huge blow for Miller, who likely loses out on an opportunity to make an impression while Alvin Kamara is suspended.

RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Buf.): The addition of Dalvin Cook has relegated Abanikanda to RB3 on this team. There was hope that the rookie would get some work in the early part of the season as Breece Hall works his way back to full strength, but with Cook on board he’ll be limited to scraps during that period, and even less work as the season wears on and Breece hits 100%. He’ll likely need an injury ahead of him to be fantasy relevant.

RB Chase Brown, CIN (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Brown struggled to make any movement up the Bengals’ depth chart this preseason. He may open the season behind all of Joe Mixon, Trayveon Williams, and Chris Evans. He should be on the waiver wire in any non-dynasty leagues.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 1: @Sea.): Evans looks likely to open the season as the Rams’ RB3 behind Cam Akers and Kyren Williams. There’s no need to consider him this week.

RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): Rodriguez is the RB3 in Washington behind Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. His skill-set mirrors Robinson pretty well, so he may get some run if anything were to happen to B-Rob, but for now, he’s an afterthought in this offense.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Downs opens the season as the Colts’ WR3, but this figures to be a run-first offense with a potentially narrow target tree. Downs saw just a 7% target share with the first-team offense in the preseason. Jacksonville did allow the 6^th-most PPR points to slot wide receivers last season, but I wouldn’t count on a big debut from Downs even in this matchup. He may develop into a valuable PPR receiver later in the season, but there could be some growing pains for this offense early on.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 1: @Min.): Palmer enters the season as the WR3 for the Bucs, but he may be as low as 5^th in line for targets in this offense that figures to play slower and be more balanced than it was a year ago. They could throw the ball nearly 200 fewer times than they did last year, and it wouldn’t be shocking. The Vikings are a burnable defense, but Palmer likely won’t see enough week 1 opportunities to make a fantasy impact.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): The Giants’ depth chart at WR is going to be fluid this year, but I expect it’ll take time for Hyatt to develop into anything more than a situational deep threat. The Cowboys’ secondary has a reputation for being aggressive and giving up big plays when they get burned by it, but that reputation is largely a remnant from 2021. The Cowboys allowed 22 completions of 35+ yards in 2021, but cut that number nearly in half to 13 in 2022 while ranking 3^rd in pass defense DVOA. Hyatt’s chances at cashing in a deep ball in week 1 on limited snaps aren’t high.

WRs Xavier Hutchinson & Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 1: @Bal.): The WR depth chart is fluid in Houston, and Hutchinson & Dell both impressed in camp and in the preseason, but the Texans will open the season with Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods as starters in 3-WR sets. If you have the rookies or John Metchie rostered, the hope is that they make the most of limited opportunities early on and earn a bigger role as the season progresses.

WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): Tillman has flashed in camp, but he’ll undoubtedly open the season as no better than the team’s WR4 behind Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Elijah Moore.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Rice will start his career in Kansas City in a similar place on the depth chart to where Skyy Moore started his a year ago – as a sub package player who will only see a handful of snaps each week. Moore didn’t reach 50% of the snaps in any game last year, and he reached double-digit PPR points just once all season. Rice has even more competition for playing time than Moore had last year. 

WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): Boutte did well just to make the Patriots opening 53-man roster, but getting playing time will be another challenge altogether. Kayshon may have a sliver of opportunity with Tyquan Thornton opening the season on IR, but the starting WRs in 3-wide sets for week 1 figures to be DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kendrick Bourne. Boutte will have to work his way up the depth chart.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 1: @Den.): Mayer should take the starting TE job soon in Vegas, but preseason usage says that Austin Hooper will open the season as the starter. There are too many quality TE options available for week 1 to consider throwing a dart at Mayer when we don’t know how much he’ll actually play.

TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 1: vs. SF): You don’t need me to tell you that Washington is playing behind Pat Freiermuth in this offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Steelers try to work the rookie onto the field in goal line situations since he’s a good blocker and a match-up nightmare at 6’7”, but that’ll make him no more than a weekly TD dart throw unless something happens to Muth.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Devon Achane, MIA (Wk. 1: @LAC): Achane’s prospects for week 1 got an unexpected boost when Jeff Wilson Jr. was placed on IR last week. There’s still some uncertainty about his workload with Raheem Mostert and Salvon Ahmed still around, but this looks like a great opportunity for the speedy Achane to make a splash in his debut. The Chargers have ranked in the bottom-6 in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry allowed in each of the last 2 seasons, and they return 6 of their starting front 7 from a year ago and promoted from within for their new defensive coordinator. The one new addition up front, Eric Kendricks, should help with an 81.1 run defense grade from PFF, but this should still be a burnable run defense. The Chargers allowed 12.2% of rushing attempts against them last year to go for 10+ yards. Who better to punish that defense than Achane, who runs a 4.32 second 40-yard dash? There is sneaky upside here in deep leagues and DFS formats.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 1: @Min.): Tucker looks poised to enter the season as the Bucs RB2 behind Rachaad White, and if White doesn’t improve on his abysmal efficiency numbers from last season, we could slowly see Tucker evolve from change-of-pace back into the starter as the season wears on. I wouldn’t plug him in for the opener, but he’s a great bench stash if you have room for him on your roster. He could be a workhorse back by the back half of the season that you can acquire for free right now.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. LAR): McLaughlin hasn’t been talked about a ton this preseason, but he’s notable as an undrafted free agent who made the Broncos opening roster. McLaughlin is undersized at 5’7”, 187 lbs., but he’s an explosive athlete who rushed for nearly 1,600 yards at Youngstown State last year, and the Broncos’ offense may have a fantasy relevant role for him.  Head coach Sean Payton’s offenses have utilized what he calls a ‘Joker’ role that gets heavily used in the passing game. Payton describes it as “either a running back or tight end with exceptional ball skills, and then you can work matchups.” He’s used running backs Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara all in that role with great success in the past. He’s mentioned McLaughlin and tight end Greg Dulcich as candidates for the role this year. McLaughlin is nothing more than a stash in deeper leagues right now (especially dynasty leagues), but there’s a chance he has a meaningful role as a receiving back this year, and even an outside shot that he supplants Samaje Perine for the RB2 role behind Javonte Williams.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 1: @Sea.): It’s sounding like a long shot that Cooper Kupp will suit up for week 1 at this point. If Kupp sits out, Nacua seems like a lock to start in 3-WR sets along with Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell. The most important detail in determining which WR in this offense you want to start is pre-snap alignment. Which guy is going to play the slot? The Seahawks allowed just 89 PPR points all season in 2022 to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter. No other team allowed fewer than 140. The Seahawks allowed 327 PPR points to receivers lined up in the slot. Typically, Cooper Kupp is the Rams’ slot WR. Van Jefferson played just 17.5% of his snaps from the slot in 2022, and the diminutive Atwell played just 22.7% of his snaps there. Pay attention to reports this week to see if you can discern who will line up in the slot most often. My guess would be Atwell, but if it turns out to be Nacua, the rookie could have big upside in his debut for deeper PPR leagues. 

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 1: @Chi.): Reed could have a sizable week one role for the Packers if Romeo Doubs misses the opener. Reed is already set to open the season as the Packers’ WR3, but he’d be elevated to WR2 for this game if Doubs misses. We still don’t really know what the target distribution will look like here, but the Bears ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA last season despite limiting tight ends to the 4^th-fewest PPR points. WRs and RBs carved them up last season in the passing game. The addition of Tremaine Edmunds and his 88.1 PFF coverage grade should help them slow down the running backs, but it should open things up for Reed and Christian Watson to have a nice week 1. Reed could draw 6+ targets on Sunday.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 1: @KC): LaPorta dominated first team TE reps throughout the preseason, and he enters week 1 as the clear cut starting tight. The Lions are without game-breaking wide receiver Jameson Williams for the first 6 weeks of the season so LaPorta might be as high as 3^rd or 4^th in the target pecking order to open the season. The Lions are likely to be chasing points on Thursday night as 4.5-point underdogs to the defending champs, so game script should lead to a solid amount of passing volume. LaPorta should be in line for 5+ targets in the opener against a defense that allowed 9 tight end touchdowns last season. He’s a good option for DFS lineups this week and could be a valuable fill-in if your starter is Travis Kelce or you’re stuck without a top-10 tight end.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 1: @Chi.): I mention Musgrave here as more of a stash than an immediate starter, but he’s going to play a meaningful role in this offense from day one. Jordan Love had 37 dropbacks in the preseason, and Musgrave was in a route on 84% of them and earned a 22% target share. Musgrave could be start-able in fantasy leagues sooner rather than later, but I don’t love his week one matchup – as I mentioned above the Bears allowed the 4^th-fewest TE PPR points last season. Take a wait-and-see approach before inserting Musgrave into lineups.

That’s all I’ve got for week 1. Hopefully, it helps you pull out a victory in your season opener. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are already banged up entering week 1 and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was one of those NFL weeks that reminds us just how little we actually know about this game. Raise your hand if you expected Desmond Ridder and CJ Stroud to have more receptions last weekend than Tee Higgins and Drake London (Put your hands down, no you didn’t). Some things did go as planned, like the Vikings throwing 40+ times and Jordan Addison benefitting as a result, and Zay Flowers being a top target in the Ravens’ passing game, but many of the other top rookies saw smaller week 1 roles than we were hoping for.

Top running backs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs both looked excellent in their debuts, but both saw lower usage than we’d like. Bijan finished the week as an RB1, but he ceded 15 carries and 2 goal-line TDs to Tyler Allgeier. Gibbs would’ve finished as a fringe RB1 as well if he hadn’t tripped over his own feet on a red zone carry that should’ve gone for a score, but he was on the field for just 19 offensive snaps while David Montgomery played 55.

Other rookie top performers of the week included Puka Nacua and Anthony Richardson. Nacua had a massive debut with 10 catches for 119 yards on 15 targets as the Rams played without Cooper Kupp. The Rams’ strong overall performance was one of the more surprising storylines of the opening weekend. Fantasy players who took the plunge on Anthony Richardson as a QB1 look like they’re going to be handsomely rewarded this season. The Colts let Richardson throw the ball 37 times in week 1 while he also rushed for 40 yards and a TD. It’s hard to lean on the running game when your top back finishes with 14 yards on 13 carries. Richardson is going to be asked to do it all while JT sits out, and in week one that meant high-end QB1 production.

Rookie tight ends Luke Musgrave and Sam LaPorta played well in their openers, but neither cracked double-digit fantasy points. LaPorta was still able to finish as a TE1 for the week as tight end scoring was abysmal league wide.

My biggest tip after week 1 is this – Don’t let a 1-week sample cause you to completely abandon your priors. You should use the info from week 1 to make decisions going forward, but don’t overreact to it. Don’t drop players like Tee Higgins or Drake London after one bad game. There are ebbs and flows in fantasy. There will be better weeks for those guys. This is especially true for the rookies that were quiet in week 1. Rarely do we see rookies dominate right out of the gate, but they’ll often help you a ton in the back half of the season.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 2…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Richardson finished his first NFL week as the fantasy QB4, and there were a lot of numbers beyond that to like as well. Richardson is inexperienced as a passer with fewer than 400 career pass attempts in college, so it’s a great sign that Shane Steichen trusted him to drop back to pass 45 times in week one (including 4 sacks and 4 scrambles). The Colts are going to struggle to run the football without Jonathan Taylor, so passing volume is going to be much higher for this offense than any of us expected coming in. That passing volume paired with huge rushing upside (he handled 27% of the Colts’ designed rushes in week 1) means Richardson could be a top-5 QB all year. He’s an every-week fantasy starter until further notice.

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 2: vs. GB): Bijan didn’t play the dominant workhorse role we were hoping for in week 1. He was on the field for 65% of the offensive snaps but handled just 38% of the rushing attempts as Tyler Allgeier had the bigger rushing workload and scored a pair of short TDs. Luckily for Bijan and for us, he was a focal point in the passing game, earning a 35% target share and scoring a receiving TD en route to a PPR RB7 finish for the week. The TD reception was especially impressive, showing off Bijan’s elusiveness after the catch. This offense is going to be run-heavy enough to make both Robinson and Allgeier viable fantasy starters every week, even if it’s not quite the usage we envisioned for Robinson. In week 2 this backfield takes on a Green Bay defense that allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game in 2022 and allowed the 5^th-most points to the position in week 1. The Bears’ backfield racked up 143 scrimmage yards, 11 receptions, and a TD against the Packers last Sunday. Bijan should be locked into starting lineups again in week 2.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Gibbs usage in week 1 was far from what we were hoping for. He played just 19 snaps compared to 55 for David Montgomery, but he was explosive with his opportunities and should see his role grow as the season goes on. This week’s opponent, the Seahawks, allowed the 4^th-most running back points last season, and coughed up 3 TDs to Cam Akers and Kyren Williams in week 1. The Lions open the week with the 3^rd-highest implied point total in the league, so this is an offense that you want to target for lineups. I’m less confident in Gibbs as an auto-start given his week 1 usage, but Dan Campbell emphatically said on Thursday that Gibbs is going to get more touches going forward, and this is a matchup where he should be able to finish as an RB2 even if that usage doesn’t improve much.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Game one of the Todd Monken era in Baltimore didn’t go according to plan with just 22 passing attempts for Lamar Jackson, but that didn’t stop Flowers from piling up 9-78 on 10 targets. The 50% target share for Flowers isn’t going to continue when Mark Andrews returns (likely this week), but the Ravens will have to throw much more this week to keep pace with the Bengals. Cincy’s passing game was awful last weekend, but they should get back on track against a banged-up Baltimore secondary that will be missing Marcus Williams and probably Marlon Humphrey as well. This game has shootout potential, and I’d look for the Ravens to throw the ball 35+ times this week, and for them to continue to find ways to get the ball into Flowers’ hands. Flowers was Lamar’s first read often last Sunday, and that should continue in week 2. I’d expect something like 8+ targets this weekend and would be firing Flowers up as a PPR WR3.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. SF): Nacua started to get some hype late last week when it became apparent that Cooper Kupp would be out for the opener, but I don’t think any of us expected the WR9 finish he posted in a surprising upset win over Seattle. Matt Stafford looked much closer to the guy who led the Rams to a Super Bowl two years ago, and Nacua and teammate Tutu Atwell were big beneficiaries of Stafford’s bounce back. Nacua led the team with a 39% target share and 35% air yardage share, and he seems to be the player who has stepped into Cooper Kupp’s target hog role while the star is on injured reserve. The matchup this week looks much tougher at first glance, but the 49ers allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game in 2022 and the 14^th-most in week 1. I wouldn’t go into this game expecting another top-10 finish for the rookie, but he should be a solid WR3 play.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Addison had a strong NFL debut, posting 4 catches, 61 yards, and a touchdown on 6 targets vs the Bucs last weekend. The 6 targets accounted for just a 13.6% target share, but the Vikings figure to be one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league and Addison should see 6+ targets more weeks than not. The Vikings should be even more inclined to throw than usual this week as 6-point underdogs, and the Eagles will be missing starting corner James Bradberry and just gave up over 300 passing yards to Mac Jones and the Patriots last weekend. This could be a TJ Hockenson week with the Vikings o-line banged up and Kirk Cousins needing to get the ball out quickly, but there should still be plenty of volume for Addison to have a WR3 week.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): LaPorta didn’t finish with a crooked stat line in week 1, but he was in a route for 72% of the Lions’ dropbacks and still finished the week as the PPR TE8. This week he faces a Seattle defense that was absolutely shredded by tight ends in 2022, allowing a dozen or more PPR points to the position 9 times, including 39.9 points to TJ Hockenson playing in this Lions’ offense. The Seahawks didn’t allow a 12-point scorer in week 1 this year, but they did allow the 2^nd-most TE receiving yards of any team in the opening week, coughing up 70 combined yards to Tyler Higbee and Brycen Hopkins on 14 yards per target. This is a premium matchup for tight ends, and LaPorta should be primed to take advantage of it as the full-time TE1 in Detroit. There are elite TEs who should be back in action this week, but I still like LaPorta’s chances to duplicate his top-8 finish from a week ago.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Musgrave’s preseason usage carried over to week 1 as he logged an 80% route participation rate and a 25% air yard share in week 1 against the Bears. He gets a favorable matchup in week 2 against an Atlanta defense that allowed the 3^rd-most tight end points in the league last year and surrendered a 5-41-1 line to Hayden Hurst last Sunday, good for a TE2 finish on the week. Green Bay’s pass catching group should get a little more crowded this week with the likely return of Christian Watson, but I expect more than the 27 passing attempts we saw from the Packers last week. The TE options after the elite guys remain uninspiring, so give me the freak athlete (Musgrave boasts a 9.78 out of 10 Relative Athletic Score) who has a full-time role and a good matchup. I like Musgrave this week if you’re searching for a streaming tight end.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Stroud still has some developing to do before he’s a trustworthy weekly option, but the Texans are content to let him drop back and throw the ball a lot. Stroud attempted 44 passes in week 1 and could push for 40 attempts again this week. He could have some extra time to throw this week – the Colts’ defense had the lowest blitz rate and 4^th-lowest pressure rate in week 1 – but their game plan might look a little different facing off with a rookie QB rather than Trevor Lawrence. The high passing volume makes Stroud a viable QB2 option in superflex leagues, but he’s still got a low floor and I’d recommend playing a safer QB2 candidate if you can.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Johnson had a busy week 1 if you judge by the stat sheet alone. He led the backfield in snaps, tied for the team lead in targets, and found the end zone in the opener, but the vast majority of that happened in the 4^th quarter when the Bears were down by 3 scores. Roschon’s performance was promising, and his role will increase if he keeps playing well, but you shouldn’t overreact to his week 1 totals. Khalil Herbert remains the Bears’ RB1, and D’Onta Foreman will continue to be involved as well. Johnson remains a part-time player this week facing off with a defense that allowed the 6^th-fewest running back points and 4^th-fewest RB receiving yards in 2022. I’d view him as a dicey RB3 option this week.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 2: @Car.): Miller returned to practice on Wednesday after missing week 1 with a hamstring injury, but I’d be inclined to sit him Monday even if he plays. At first glance, it looks like a great spot to fire him up. Alvin Kamara is still suspended, Jamaal Williams was wildly inefficient in week 1 with 18 carries for 45 yards, and this week’s opponent coughed up more running back points than any other team in the league last weekend. This seems like a spot where Miller could seize a significant role in a plus matchup, right? As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends. The crooked point total the Falcons RBs put on the Panthers was an aberration. Atlanta added Bijan Robinson to an offense that was already a top-4 rushing offense in the NFL last season. They’re going to make a lot of defenses look bad. The Panthers aren’t an elite run defense, but they aren’t as bad as the Falcons made them look. This was a middling unit last season, allowing the 17^th-most RB points per game, and the Saints were a bottom half rushing offense even with Alvin Kamara. Don’t expect a blowup game from Miller here in a role where he’s sharing the backfield with Williams. He may still finish with a useful fantasy day if he can find his way into the end zone but starting him in a middling matchup when he has injury concerns and an uncertain role doesn’t sound like a good time to me. The fact that the Saints play Monday night is another knock against Miller. If you plan to start him and he winds up inactive, you’ll be scrambling for a replacement.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Bigsby found the end zone in week one and his week 2 opponent coughed up 116 running back rushing yards to the Lions last week, but Bigsby’s role isn’t big enough to rely on this week. Travis Etienne dominated the Jaguars’ backfield workload in the opener, playing 80% of the snaps, but Bigsby got the two carries when the Jags got in close. There’s a chance that goal line role continues for Tank, so he does have some fringe value since this matchup has the highest Vegas point total of the week, but if Tank doesn’t find the end zone, you’re going to be bummed if you started him.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 2: @Det.): As expected, JSN functioned as the clear WR3 for Seattle in week 1. He was in a route on 66% of the team passing dropbacks while DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were both at 90% or better, and while JSN did tie for a team-high 5 targets, he saw a measly 3% of the team air yards. Smith-Njigba turned those short targets into just 3 catches and 13 yards. You’d like to see more downfield usage from him, but the reality is that the Seahawks’ pass protection just wasn’t very good in the opener, forcing a lot of quick throws from Geno Smith. Smith faced the 8^th-highest pressure rate in week 1 and will be without both of his starting tackles in week 2 due to injury. Part of the plan to replace those tackles was signing 41-year-old free agent Jason Peters off the street. Aidan Hutchinson could have a field day in this game, and JSN should be in line for more short targets. A big game isn’t out of the question as the Seahawks have scored 48 and 51 points in their last two meetings with the Lions, but these aren’t the same Lions. I’d probably keep JSN benched another week unless you’re desperate in a deeper PPR league.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Week one included a lot of positive takeaways for Josh Downs. He was in a route on 77% of the Colts’ dropbacks and earned 5 targets in an offense that was much more pass-heavy than expected in the opener. The problem for Downs was his 3.4-yard aDOT. It would take a lot of targets or a lot of yards after the catch to compile a solid fantasy day on those kinds of short passes. The Texans allowed the 12^th-fewest wide receiver points last season, but they’re likely to be missing both of their starting safeties. I’d still probably avoid Downs this week in anything but deep PPR leagues. 10 PPR points would be a pleasant surprise.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Rice impressed in week 1, tying for a team-high 5 targets and turning it into a 3-29-1 performance on Thursday night. He’s going to earn more opportunities going forward if he keeps making the most of his chances, but his 27% route participation rate in the opener isn’t going to lead to sustainable production, especially with Travis Kelce likely back to hog targets this week. Jacksonville was just a middling WR defense a year ago, but the Chiefs have too many WRs that they’ll try to get involved for you to rely on any of them for fantasy right now. You’d be best served playing the waiting game until we really know what everyone’s role will look like.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 2: @Atl.): The final stat line didn’t look pretty for Reed as he turned 5 targets and a rushing attempt into just 6.6 PPR points, but a deeper look shows more positives than the surface level stats. Reed was targeted on 25% of his routes run and had a team-high 32% air yardage share. You’d prefer to see more than 2 catches on 5 targets, but just 3 of those targets were catchable and Jordan Love constantly looked for Reed on the money downs. 40% of Love’s 3^rd and 4^th down targets were intended for the rookie. The unfortunate thing for Reed is the impending return of Christian Watson. Watson is hoping to return this week, and if it happens, he’ll likely cut into Reed’s opportunities a bit. I do expect the Packers to have to throw more this week in a game that shouldn’t be as lopsided, but Reed will be hard to trust if the Packers’ WR1 is healthy. I’d keep Reed benched this week if Watson plays. If Watson sits again, Reed will have a great chance to at least match the 6 opportunities he got in week 1, so keep an eye on the injury report here.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Mingo was a full-time player in week one, running a route on 93% of the team’s passing dropbacks and earning 5 targets, but he’s going to have to endure some growing pains from teammate Bryce Young who posted the lowest PFF passing grade of any QB in week 1. Those 5 targets for Mingo turned into 2 catches and 17 yards, and the Saints are a better defense than the Falcons. There’s a chance for improved performance from Young and more production for Mingo this week, but I wouldn’t want to rely on it.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Entering the season there was a lingering question about what the snap share would look like between Buffalo’s TE2 Dalton Kincaid and WR3 Deonte Harty, and the week 1 returns overwhelmingly favored Kincaid as he logged a 76% route participation rate compared to just 26% for Harty. Kincaid is close to a full-time player, but a troubling development in week 1 was his lack of downfield usage. Kincaid was targeted 4 times against the Jets, but his average target depth was just a yard and a half downfield. The deeper targets were mostly reserved for Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. That could change as the season goes on, but I’d prefer one of the other rookie starting tight ends over Kincaid this week as both have better matchups. The Raiders did allow the 12^th-most TE points last season, but Kincaid is splitting the TE work with Dawson Knox and Las Vegas allowed the 7^th-fewest yards per catch to the position in 2022. If you can live with a ‘5 catches for 30 yards’ type of stat line from your tight end, Kincaid might be up your alley this week, but I’d aim higher in week 2.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): As I mentioned above, no QB earned a lower passing grade from Pro Football Focus in week 1 than Bryce Young. He’s got a learning curve ahead of him and faces what should be a brutal matchup in week 2. The Saints picked off Ryan Tannehill 3 times, sacked him 3 times, and held him to just a 28.8 passer rating in week 1. Expecting a bounce back from Young this week against that defense is just asking for a single-digit point total from your QB spot.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Tucker took a distant back seat to Rachaad White in the opener, handling just 15% of the snaps, but White looked like the same inefficient back we saw in 2022 as he rushed for just 39 yards on 17 carries. White should continue to get the bulk of the backfield work for now, relegating Tucker to benches in fantasy leagues, but if Rachaad doesn’t start to show signs of improvement, Tucker’s time is coming.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 2: @Det.): Two of my biggest misses of week 1 were expecting the Seahawks to beat the Rams without much difficulty and expecting Seattle to ease Kenneth Walker III back into the lineup after his preseason groin injury. Instead, the Seahawks were rolled by the Rams and KW3 dominated the backfield work, playing 65% of the snaps and handling 71% of the team rushing attempts. Charbonnet didn’t even have the rest of the workload to himself, he shared it with DeeJay Dallas. This matchup might look enticing considering that Seattle has scored 51 and 48 points in their two meetings with the Lions in the last 2 years, but these aren’t the same old Lions and Charbonnet won’t see the field enough to be trusted in fantasy lineups.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 2: @Ten.): Johnston earned more targets than Joshua Palmer in week one, but he ran about half as many routes as his teammate as he operated as the team’s WR4. The Chargers were more run-heavy than we expected in week 1, which limits Johston’s upside even more, but that may change in week 2 with Austin Ekeler banged up and LA facing a much tougher run defense in Tennessee. I’d keep waiting for Johnston’s role to grow before considering him in lineups.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): If you watched Josh Dobbs and the Arizona offense in week 1, you don’t need me to tell you that starting the pass-catchers in that offense isn’t a great idea. There were some promising numbers in Wilson’s debut, including a 91% route participation rate and a 39% air yardage share, but it resulted in just 2 catches for 19 yards. Dobbs is trying to get by with dink & dunk throws (he averaged just 6.3 yards per completion last weekend), and Wilson just isn’t going to produce much if this passing game can’t threaten the intermediate level.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Palmer scored a TD in week 1, but he totaled just 2 catches for 8 yards on 3 targets. The passing targets in this offense are going to be funneled to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Palmer is going to battle for scraps with Cade Otton, Deven Thompkins and the running backs each week. He’s no more than a TD dart throw.

WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Was.): Mims was expected to operate as the Broncos WR2 in the opener with Jerry Jeudy sidelined, and instead he worked as the WR4 behind both Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson. Russell Wilson spread the targets around in week 1 with 8 different players seeing multiple targets, and nobody seeing more than 6, but 2-3 targets for Mims on limited snaps isn’t going to make him fantasy viable.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 2: @Ari.): Hyatt was in a route on 39% of the Giants’ passing dropbacks in week 1, but he saw just 1 target that he didn’t catch. Your hope if you play him is that he catches a deep TD against a bad Arizona defense, but the Cardinals allowed just one completion of 20 or more yards in week 1. Another goose egg is entirely possible here.

TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. Cle.): Pat Freiermuth exited the Steelers’ week 1 game with a chest injury, but don’t let that fool you into thinking that Washington is a sleeper this week. It was Connor Heyward who stepped in and earned 4 second half targets. Washington was in a route on 31% of the team passing dropbacks (compared to just 25% for Heyward), but the ball didn’t come his way at all. Whether Muth plays or not, Washington isn’t much more than a TD dart throw.

Players to sit who are injured or had very limited or non-existent week 1 roles: RB Evan Hull, IND, RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Chris Rodriguez, WAS, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Tre Tucker, LV, TE Michael Mayer, LV

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Spears didn’t put up a big fantasy point number in week 1, but his usage is worth taking note of. Spears actually out-snapped Derrick Henry in week 1. Henry still handled 79% of the rushing workload, but Spears was in a route on 50% of the Titans’ passing drop backs and led all running backs in air yards in week 1. Spears isn’t just the passing-down complement to Derrick Henry. The Titans are making an active effort to get him involved in the offense. This might not be the best spot to get him into the lineup as the Chargers allowed fewer than 4 receptions per game to opposing running backs last year, but Spears shouldn’t be a free agent in 12-team PPR leagues. He’s worth a stash if you can make room for him.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Dell ran a route on just 46% of the Texans’ dropbacks in week 1, but Houston placed starting receiver Noah Brown on IR this week, and John Metchie’s status is still uncertain for week 2. That could mean Dell is in line to play a full complement of snaps, and I already mentioned that this offense may push for 40 pass attempts again this week. Robert Woods and Nico Collins dominated targets last week, but with more playing time we could see Dell reach 6-7 targets, and he has the kind of speed and run-after-catch skills that could turn any reception into a TD. He’s mostly an option for the deepest leagues and DFS lineups this week, but Dell has an intriguing ceiling against the Colts.

WRs Demario Douglas & Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): With DeVante Parker sidelined in week 1, Boutte was second on the team in routes run and Douglas was tied for second on the team in targets (both behind Kendrick Bourne). Both are worth a stash in deep leagues while the Patriots try to work out their receiver pecking order. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the highest paid WR on the team, but he was standing on the sideline during the Pats comeback effort last weekend. Of the two rookies, I’d prioritize Douglas since he was able to earn targets, but both have the chance to earn a substantial role if they make the most of their opportunities. Boutte was viewed as an elite WR prospect once upon a time, but Douglas had the higher day 3 draft capital of the two.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions this week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.