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Welcome back to the Rookie Report, and happy Turkey Day! Hopefully, you’ve been able to find a safe, socially distanced way to see family for the holiday and still eat a gluttonous amount of food. There will be a bit less football on Thursday than originally planned with the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game moved to Sunday, but it’ll still be the first week with all 32 teams in action since September. The rookie class won’t be quite at full strength after injuries to Joe Burrow and LaMical Perine, and a positive COVID test for JK Dobbins and a benching for Jake Luton, but most of the rookies will be in action this week. The WR class continued to pace the field in rookie production with strong weeks from Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Michael Pittman Jr., and CeeDee Lamb (who made a spectacular TD catch), but the top of the running back class got back on track too. Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored two touchdowns, Antonio Gibson and JK Dobbins found paydirt as well, and Jonathan Taylor topped 100 scrimmage yards for the first time since week 6. In all, there was 4 rookie running backs in the top-12 RBs for the week. Even Cam Akers got into the end zone for the first time this year. Will the rookies continue to be useful in week 12 as you make your final push for the fantasy playoffs? Let’s dive in and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 12: @Buf.): The beat goes on for Justin Herbert after another stellar performance in week 11 against the hapless Jets. Herbert has accounted for 3+ touchdowns in 6 of his last 7 games and has thrown for more than 260 yards in 8 of his 9 starts. This week he gets to face a Bills’ defense that has numbers that don’t stack up to their reputation of being a tough defense. The Bills have allowed the 5^th-most QB points per game, and the only QBs they’ve held below 20 fantasy points are Sam Darnold (twice) and Cam Newton. The other 7 they’ve faced all hit that mark. Herbert should be locked in as your QB1 unless you have an elite guy like Mahomes or Russ ahead of him.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): The Jaguars have made the regrettable decision to turn to Mike Glennon at quarterback this week. While that isn’t an ideal change for the offense as a whole, it shouldn’t be a problem for Robinson, who has shown in recent weeks that he can run effectively with a bum at QB. Defenses focusing on him has not been a problem. Glennon at QB also shouldn’t hurt Robinson’s chances at being productive in the passing game. In his last stint as a starter with the Bears in 2017, Glennon targeted Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard a combined 44 times in 4 starts (albeit on a team with a bad WR group). Cleveland looks like a tough matchup on paper, allowing the 8^th fewest running back points per game, but that’s mostly a product of a positive game script. The Browns have been leading on the scoreboard for 56% of their defensive snaps. Cleveland ranks just a middling 15^th in run defense DVOA, and just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Robinson has had at least 17 touches every week so far. I’d expect that to continue again in this one, and there is nothing in this matchup to scare me off of treating him like a low-end RB1 this week.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): We finally got a chance to see last Sunday what it looks like for Gibson when Washington plays from ahead. Gibson played more snaps than JD McKissic for just the 3^rd time all season and the first time since week 5, and he finished with 104 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. This week’s matchup with the Cowboys should be close for much of the day, so Gibson should stay heavily involved. Dallas ranks just 25^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 14^th-most RB points per game. Most of the running back production they allow is on the ground, which should favor Gibson over McKissic. Dallas allows the 2^nd-fewest RB receptions and the fewest RB receiving yards per game. I like Gibson’s chances at putting up 80+ yards and finding the end zone for the 5^th-straight game.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 12: @NYJ): It looks like Ahmed may get one more week as the Phins’ lead back before Myles Gaskin returns from injury, and the Jets are a good team to get a start against. If Gaskin ends up playing this week, you don’t want to play Ahmed, and the rookie is dealing with a shoulder injury himself so keep an eye on the injury report this week before plugging him in. Assuming Ahmed plays and Gaskin doesn’t, Ahmed should be a strong fantasy play as the Dolphins face a defense that has allowed the 9^th-most running back points per game. They also enter the week as a touchdown favorite, so the game script should be on Ahmed’s side as well. He’s handled 22 and 17 touches in the two games he’s started, and that kind of volume against the Jets probably makes him a high-end RB2. We did get to see him show off some pass-catching ability last week (5-31 on 6 targets), giving him a higher floor in PPR leagues than previously expected.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): Jefferson posted another strong outing in week 11 with 84 yards and a touchdown, and this week may get to play without Adam Thielen on the field. Thielen tested positive for Covid-19 early in the week, and while there is still a chance it was a false positive, there’s no guarantee he’s able to play on Sunday at this point. The concern with any Viking pass catchers is always that they could have so much success running the ball that there isn’t a lot of passing volume. Cousins has thrown the ball 25 or fewer times in 4 separate games this year, but we’ve seen Jefferson clear 60 yards in two of those 4 games already, and those concerns are pretty much nonexistent if he’s not sharing targets with Thielen. The Panthers are in the bottom-12 of the league in pass defense DVOA, and I’d bank on the rookie’s upside again. I’d view him as a WR1 if Thielen is out, and a WR2 if he plays.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Despite his week 11 benching, Tua is expected to be under center again in week 12. The matchup this week is much more forgiving. The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. Tua has been a little bit up-and-down so far this season, but I would expect this to be an ‘up’ week. We haven’t seen Tagovailoa show off a top-10 QB ceiling just yet, but he should be a quality QB2 this week for those of you in superflex and 2-QB formats assuming he can mentally shake off the benching.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Taylor had a bit of a resurgence last Sunday, playing 56% of the offensive snaps and handling 26 of the team’s 40 running back touches (65%). It was the second-highest touch number of the season for JT, and his highest snap share since before the team’s week 7 bye. The million-dollar question is – does it carry forward? Will Taylor continue to lead this backfield? I think the answer is yes, at least for this week. The Colts’ backfield is a fluid situation, but I think Taylor has earned another week as the lead back. The matchup could be a little bit of a concern despite the Titans allowing the 7^th-most RB points per game. This is the same defense that held Taylor to 12 yards on 7 rushes just a couple of weeks ago, and the backs they’ve had the most trouble with have been the smaller and more agile backs. The 5 best running back fantasy performances they’ve allowed this year came from Dalvin Cook, Nyheim Hines, Giovani Bernard, JK Dobbins, and James Robinson. None of that group is all that similar to Taylor stylistically. Despite that, I expect Taylor to get a dozen or more touches this week and get the chance to prove that last week’s bounce-back wasn’t a fluke. Hines will be involved again, but I think Taylor will be a borderline RB2 in this one and keep Jordan Wilkins at bay.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 12: @TB): CEH posted his best game in weeks last Sunday, but playing against the Raiders was a predictable smash spot for the rookie. This week’s matchup with the Bucs should be much tougher. Tampa allows the 4^th fewest RB points per game and ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA. There will still be a decent amount of rushing work for Clyde, but the saving grace for Edwards-Helaire is that Tampa has allowed more running back receptions than any team in the league, and the rookie has pulled in 3+ catches in 7 of the last 9 games. Tampa boasts one of the best secondaries in the league, so I think you’ll see more of CEH catching the football out of the backfield than we’re used to. He should finish the week as a solid RB2 in PPR leagues, but more of a flex play in non-PPR formats.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): We’ve now seen Moss out-snap Devin Singletary for 3 weeks running, and he’s out-touched him 19-10 in the last two weeks. We haven’t seen big yardage totals out of either back most weeks, but Moss has found the end zone 3 times in the last 3 games while Singletary hasn’t scored in that span. Both backs ran well against New England totaling over 80 rushing yards each in that contest, but the duo has combined for just 115 scrimmage yards in the last two games. The Chargers allow the 10^th-most RB points per game but allow the 16^th-most scrimmage yards to the position, so getting back on track with the yardage may not be in the offing. Moss will need to get into the end zone to be worth playing this week. The Chargers might be willing to oblige. They’ve coughed up 7 running back rushing scores in the last 5 games.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): It was another productive day for Claypool last Sunday, posting 4-59-1 on 8 targets in a blowout win over the Jaguars. It was his 4^th consecutive game with 8+ targets and 50+ yards, and he’s scored 4 touchdowns in those games as well. It appears that James Washington has eaten into Claypool’s snap share a bit in each of the last two weeks, but that doesn’t really concern me. Claypool continues to be a featured part of the offense. What concerns me this week is the matchup with Baltimore. The Ravens’ secondary has gotten healthy, so that means a tough matchup for all 3 Pittsburgh receivers. Big Ben threw for just 182 yards in the first meeting with the Ravens, and only JuJu Smith-Schuster reached 50 receiving yards on the team. Ben threw into the coverage of one of those top three corners (Jimmy Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters) 18 times in that game, and completed just 10 of those throws for 63 yards. Claypool still has his usual upside in this one, but it will probably be more of a floor game. I would treat him as a WR3 this week.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Pittman may be in the process of dethroning TY Hilton as the Colts’ WR1. He’s played 80%+ of the snaps in 3 straight contests and averaged 6 targets and 81 scrimmage yards per game in that span. He also scored his first TD of the season last weekend. No other Indy WR has played more than 67% of the snaps in either of the last 2 weeks. Tennessee is an opponent to target for wide receivers. They rank 25^th in pass-defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game. With that snap share and this matchup, Pittman should be a solid WR3 option this week in most formats.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Jeudy had a bit of a down game in week 11, totaling just 3 catches for 37 yards, but he was still targeted 8 times in the contest. It was the 4^th straight game he’s seen at least 8 targets, and that kind of volume will keep him in consideration for a WR3 spot most weeks. This week he faces a Saints defense that ranks an impressive 5^th in pass defense DVOA, but has allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game, and the receivers they’ve been most vulnerable to play on the perimeter. They’ve allowed 6 different receivers to tally 15 fantasy points against them this season, and all of them play primarily on the outside. If Jeudy is targeted 8+ times again this week (and I think he will be), there is a great chance of him getting back up to 60+ yards and finishing as a useful fantasy starter.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): If there was ever a golden opportunity for a blowup game from Reagor, this is it. Carson Wentz has been struggling to get himself right, but Reagor has been a full-time player and seen at least 5 targets and 3 catches in each game since his return, and this week he gets the matchup of all matchups for wide receivers. The Seahawks have given up by far the most WR points per game. The defense right behind them in that category, the Cowboys, are closer in average points allowed to the 13^th-ranked Raiders than they are to Seattle. Wentz’s poor play keeps me from getting too optimistic here, but there is a big ceiling if the Eagles can get their passing game just a little more on-track. I’d treat Reagor like a WR4 with a big upside. His floor is probably in the ballpark of 4 catches for 40 yards.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 12: @LAR): The situation for Aiyuk this week remains in flux as of Wednesday. He was placed on the Covid list for the 2^nd time this season early in the week, but it was just as a close contact and he may still get cleared. Teammate Deebo Samuel returned to practice this week and may also suit up on Sunday, but could be a game-time decision. If Aiyuk plays and Samuel is out, we know he’ll see enough volume to be in play as a WR3. He’d have the unfortunate circumstance of matching up with Jalen Ramsey, one of the truly elite cover corners in the league, to take away any real ceiling he’d have, but he’d have volume. If Deebo and Aiyuk both play, Samuel would more likely be the receiver chased around by Ramsey, which could free up Aiyuk for a productive day on less volume. In either case, he’s still facing the defense that allows the fewest WR points per game. With the 49ers playing in the late afternoon Sunday, I’d probably look for another option this week. If you’re planning on playing Aiyuk, make sure you have a backup plan that plays in the late afternoon or later in case Aiyuk ends up inactive.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Lamb made one of the catches of the week last Sunday against the Vikings, contorting his body on his way to the ground in the end zone. CeeDee has done an admirable job of keeping himself fantasy viable despite a revolving door at QB since Dak Prescott went down. He’s finished with 13+ PPR points in 3 of the 5 games since Dak was injured. This week’s matchup is a tough one though. Washington allows 2^nd-fewest WR points per game and held Lamb to zero catches on 5 targets in the first meeting between the two teams. I wouldn’t count on Lamb being blanked again, but I also think it will be an uphill fight to get to 13 PPR points in this one. I’d probably look for other options unless you have to play Lamb, and I wouldn’t target him in Thanksgiving DFS lineups.  

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): Higgins has several factors working against him this week. The Bengals will be without Joe Burrow after he was knocked out for the season last week, and instead, it will be former Bronco Brandon Allen under center. There’s also a chance he is going to spend most of his day tangling with James Bradberry, who has shown himself to be a true shutdown corner this year. The Giants have given up some receiver production, allowing the 15^th-most WR points per game, but the guy matching up with Bradberry usually isn’t putting up much of it. There are some glimmers of hope for Higgins. It’s possible the Bengals could move him around to try and get him away from Bradberry at times since this might not be a true shadow situation. Also, if you look at Brandon Allen’s performances in his 3 starts last year, you see a willingness to force the ball to his #1 WR. Allen targeted Courtland Sutton at least 8 times in all 3 of his starts last season. If that volume finds its way to Higgins this week, he could wind up with a respectable game even in the tough matchup. Just know that the ceiling probably isn’t going to be there this week, and you’re just hoping that he manages to put up 10 PPR points if you play him.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. SF): Akers did find the end zone for the first time on Monday night, but don’t be fooled into thinking it makes him fantasy viable yet. He was still a distant 3^rd in snap share behind Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown in the game, and he only posted 19 scrimmage yards on 6 touches. The 49ers allow the 7^th-fewest RB points per game, and Akers is third in line among the guys trying to score those points against them. I’d look elsewhere if desperate at RB this week.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 12: @Buf.): With Troymaine Pope back from his concussion, Kelley was limited to a season-low 11 offensive snaps last week. Kalen Ballage has established himself as the clear lead back with Pope and Kelley splitting the work that’s leftover, at least until Austin Ekeler returns. Considering that Ekeler’s return is probably coming within the next week or 2, there’s no reason to hold on to Kelley in season-long leagues at this point.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): You likely don’t need me to tell you to avoid McFarland this week, but he’s played a total of just 19 offensive snaps in the last 4 games he’s been active for. Baltimore is a tough matchup for running backs, ranking 4^th in run defense DVOA, but it’s even tougher to produce against that defense if you aren’t getting onto the field.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Mims has been solid since getting healthy, drawing an average of 6.5 targets per game, and many of them downfield. He’s posted 217 yards on 13 catches over the 4 games he’s played, but the bulk of that production has come with Joe Flacco at QB. Sam Darnold has returned to practice this week and may start on Sunday. If Darnold starts, I’d expect him to have tunnel vision for Jamison Crowder. Crowder has been targeted at least 10 times in each game he played with Darnold this season and just 5 total targets in the last two games with Flacco at QB. He also draws the easiest CB matchup this week. While Mims and Breshad Perrriman deal with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the outside, Crowder gets to tangle with Nik Needham in the slot, who he should have no problem with. The Dolphins rank 11^th in pass defense DVOA, so this isn’t an easy matchup to begin with. I’d give Mims a bit of a bump if it’s Flacco at QB again, but if it’s Darnold as expected I would lean against playing Mims.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Drew Lock’s injury and the positive game script may have had a negative impact on Hamler’s playing time in week 11. The Broncos leaned on the running game and played a lot more 2-tight end sets against Miami than we typically see from them. Some of that may have been to protect Lock, who has been dealing with a rib injury, but more likely it was the result of a positive game script. Denver didn’t lead much in the 3 games prior to the tilt with the Dolphins but led for nearly 3 full quarters last Sunday. That run-heavy game script limited Hamler to just 58% of the offensive snaps. He did see 6 targets and turned them into 4 catches for 35 yards, but he had been targeted 10 times in each of the two games before that. The Broncos could go back to playing from behind this week, but I’m not sure it will result in a boost in production for Hamler. New Orleans has allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game, but they have been good at limiting slot production. Of the 13 wide receivers who have put up 10 fantasy points or more against the Saints, only 3 of them play primarily in the slot, and none of those 3 were among the 6 receivers that reached 15 points against them. Hamler is best avoided this week.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Shenault has missed the last two games with an injury, and now he’s in line to come back to a game with Mike Glennon at QB. Throughout his career, Glennon has heavily targeted tight ends and big outside receivers like Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Almost a quarter of his career targets were aimed at V-Jax. I’d expect DJ Chark to be the most useable receiver in this offense while Glennon is under center, but even he would be tough to trust. Volume from a bad QB doesn’t always lead to fantasy production. The Browns are a decent matchup. They allow the 11^th-most WR points per game and will be without their top CB Denzel Ward, but Glennon may render that a moot point. Keep Shenault sidelined this week.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Is this the week that Ruggs finally has a blowup game again? It could be. The Falcons have allowed a league-high 47 pass plays of 20+ yards on the year, and the Seahawks are the only other team to give up 40 or more of them so far, but I wouldn’t count on a strong day from Ruggs. He’s got just 67 scrimmage yards on 9 touches over his last 4 games and played under 60% of the snaps last week for the first time all season (in games he’s been active for). He’s got a little more upside than usual in this game, but I wouldn’t take the chance. He’s a little pricier than I’d like in DFS where his price tag is $1,300 above the minimum on DraftKings. I also wouldn’t go near Bryan Edwards in any lineups after he played just 9 snaps last weekend in his 3^rd game since returning to the field.

WR Austin Mack, NYG (Wk. 12: @Cin.): I was tempted to list Mack as a sleeper this week but can’t really imagine where it’s feasible to play him. Most of his value comes from the volatility of the relationship between the Giants and Golden Tate. Mack was the beneficiary in week 9 when Tate was benched for complaining about his usage, serving as the team’s WR3 and posting a 4-72 line on 5 targets. The interesting thing was that Mack didn’t go completely to the bench in week 10 when Tate was re-inserted. Instead, the two split the WR3 role. Mack wasn’t heavily utilized, catching his only target for just 9 yards in that game, but this week’s matchup is an interesting one if Mack continues to see time on the field. The Bengals allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to ancillary wide receivers (not the team’s WR1 or 2). If Mack does see some time on the field again this week, he could potentially make the most of the opportunity. That opportunity would probably be just 3 or 4 targets though.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Hou.): This is a week where there should be some sneaky upside for Cephus, but I’m not buying that he’ll make good on it. The Lions will be without Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola on Thursday, but that was also the case last Sunday and Quintez played his lowest snap total of the 3 games that Golladay has missed. The signing of Mohamed Sanu has Cephus splitting the WR3 role behind Marvin Jones & Marvin Hall. Houston is a pretty good matchup, allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game, but Cephus hasn’t been targeted more than twice in a game since week 2. I wouldn’t consider playing him as anything more than a cheap dart throw in a Thanksgiving slate DFS tournament.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): Davis’s playing time has been pretty steady this year. He’s been on the field for more than 30 offensive snaps in all but one game on the season, but his production has been anything but steady. He’s topped 9 PPR points 4 different times this year…and come up short of 2 points 3 different times. I wouldn’t bank on this being a week where he tops 9 again. The Chargers rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to ancillary wide receivers. This isn’t a week to roll the dice on Davis being productive.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 12: @Jax): Since his breakout game against the Bengals in week 7 where he scored a game-winning touchdown, DPJ has played an average of just 9 snaps per game and seen 2 total targets across 3 games. He doesn’t play enough to warrant consideration even in a plus matchup like this one.

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 12: @Den.): Now that Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are back to health, Callaway has been on the field for just 14 snaps in the last 2 weeks. With Taysom Hill at QB, there isn’t enough passing volume to justify considering any pass-catchers on this team outside of Thomas and Sanders. Hill threw just 23 times in his first start, and 17 of those throws targeted the top 2 receivers. Brees was averaging nearly 36 attempts per game in the 8 full games he played.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. SF): Jefferson did score a touchdown last Monday, but like with his teammate Akers, don’t be fooled into thinking his role is growing. He was on the field for just 4 of the team’s 72 offensive snaps and was targeted just the one time. He’s still a distant 4^th on this WR depth chart.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 12: @GB): The playing time has been increasing for Kmet, but the fantasy production has not. Kmet played more snaps than Jimmy Graham in week 10 before the last week’s bye, but he turned that into just 1 catch for 7 yards, and I wouldn’t expect him to continue playing more than Graham going forward. It was likely a product of a game plan that called for better blocking tight ends in front of the backup running backs since David Montgomery was sidelined. Green Bay allows the 4^th-fewest tight end points per game, and if any Bear tight end is going to put up production against them my money is on Graham.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 12: @Jax.): Bryant went without a target last Sunday for the 2^nd straight game since Austin Hooper’s return to the lineup. The weather has played a role with both games being played in downpour conditions, but it’s never a good sign to put up back-to-back goose eggs. We also saw David Njoku play over 50% of the offensive snaps in a game with Austin Hooper on the field for the first time all season. The Jaguars do allow the 4^th-most points per game to tight ends, so I doubt Bryant gets completely skunked again, but if Njoku is more involved the rookie has even less upside than usual. Bryant has had more than one catch just once in a game that Hooper played.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Carson Wentz’s play is starting to make it difficult for the Eagles to keep running him out there. Sitting at 3-6-1, it’s hard to believe they’d be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but they may start looking for a spark if they want to stay in that position. Hurts could get the call eventually, and his running ability would give him instant upside even if he isn’t very productive as a passer. Hurts made strides throwing the ball in his last year in college after transferring to Oklahoma, but obviously, there is a difference between Big 12 defenses and NFL defenses. He had 3 separate college seasons with over 850 rushing yards, including nearly 1,300 yards and 20 TDs on the ground in 14 games as a senior. We all know that running QBs can be a cheat code in fantasy. If you have the bench space in a 2-QB league, especially a dynasty league, it would make some sense to stash the Eagles’ rookie QB.

RB Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Perry has been quietly becoming more involved in the Dolphins’ offense in recent weeks, playing regularly at wide receiver since Preston Williams went down a few weeks ago. Perry saw season-highs of 5 targets and a 78% snap share in week 11. If he’s on the field a similar amount this week, he’ll have some upside against a Jets’ defense that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game. Perry has RB eligibility, so if you’re hard-pressed for a running back in a deeper PPR league, Perry could fit that bill this week, and he’s an interesting stash in those same deep PPR leagues in case his role grows going forward. Perry was an option QB at Navy, running for over 2,000 yards and throwing for over 1,000 as a senior, so there may be some trick play potential here as well. It’s normally a good sign for a player learning a new position to get on the field this much as a rookie.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Dallas will likely return to the bench this week as Chris Carson is expected to return on Monday in Philly, but Dallas does intrigue me for the Monday night showdown slate DFS tournaments. Backup Carlos Hyde was splitting the backup work with Travis Homer in the early part of the season when Chris Carson was healthy and even spent a couple of weeks as a healthy scratch. In recent weeks, Dallas has sort of moved into Homer’s 3^rd-down specialist role, and he may get the opportunity to spell Carson a bit, especially if the Seahawks decide not to overwork Carson in his first game back. The Eagles rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA on throws that target the running backs, so there is some sneaky upside if Dallas plays more than expected.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 12: @GB): It’ll be an interesting week for the Bears with Mitch Trubisky back at quarterback. He was inefficient early in the year, leading to his benching, but the change back likely won’t be a big downgrade for Mooney. Trubisky targeted Mooney 6 times in the first two weeks of the season, when he was still behind Ted Ginn on the depth chart, and connected with him for one of the two TDs the rookie has scored. This week, I’d expect Jaire Alexander to shadow Allen Robinson, which could open things up for Mooney. Alexander has the highest coverage grade of any cornerback from Pro Football Focus this season, and the Packers rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to a team’s WR2. Chicago is an 8.5-point underdog, so they’re likely to be playing from behind and throwing. If Trubisky provides any kind of spark at all, I’d expect a surprisingly good showing from Mooney.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. @Pit.): The Ravens will be without JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram this week, and Duvernay is a track star who played running back in high school before converting to wide receiver in college. He lost snaps at wide receiver last week with Dez Bryant activated, but I’d expect Baltimore to get creative this week in trying to get the ball into the explosive rookie’s hands. The Steelers rank 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve still managed to give up the 16^th-most WR points per game. I don’t think the Ravens feel entirely comfortable going into the week with just Gus Edwards and Justice Hill at running back, and I’d look for them to manufacture a few extra touches for Duvernay. I’m not sure what format you’d be able to play him in, but don’t be surprised if he leaves the week with 60+ scrimmage yards.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates before kickoff, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. It’s been a long, strange trip this season, but hopefully you’ve made it to this point with a postseason berth secured, or at least a chance to earn one this week. We had our first Wednesday Afternoon Football in recent memory a couple days ago, and week 13 brings us two Monday games, a Tuesday night game, and two of the latest byes we’ve seen in years (Tampa & Carolina). If the Vegas betting lines are on point, it’s also going to have a LOT of uneven scores. 7 of the week’s 15 games have point spreads of more than 6 points. A week with a lot of lopsided games can be tricky to navigate when setting fantasy lineups, but there should be some exploitable matchups as a result. Which rookies does that apply to? Let’s take a look and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 13: @Min.): You already know what to do with Robinson. You can’t sit him. He’s given rock solid production week in and week out, and there is nothing about the matchup this week to scare you off of that. In Mike Glennon’s first start Robinson played all but one snap, and he was a popular passing game option as well with 6 targets and 5 catches. Minnesota ranks a middling 16^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and they’ve given up over 100 rushing yards in 4 of their past 5 games. For the season, Robinson has 80% of the Jaguars team rushing yards. He should be safe for 70+ rushing yards and a handful of catches once again, and he’s always a threat to put the ball in the end zone.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Taylor’s trip to the COVID/reserve list came at a pretty inopportune time as he just seemed to be getting back on track. I don’t think the week off is going to derail his momentum. He seems to have separated himself from Jordan Wilkins again for the early down work, and this week’s matchup is a great one for him. The Texans allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game, but more importantly they allow the most running back rushing yards in the league. Nyheim Hines will of course mix in a fair amount as usual, but I’m going to make a bold claim that Taylor runs for over 100 yards and finds the end zone in this one. I think he’ll run with a little extra juice after the week off.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): This week’s attack could feature a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for Minnesota as they’re favored to win by 10 points, but you know the kind of upside that Jefferson brings to the table. Jacksonville boasts one of the worst secondaries in the league. They rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. Jefferson has been more consistent in recent weeks after having some boom-or-bust performances in the early part of the season. He’s averaged 5 catches for 89 yards on 8 targets over the past 4 games, and found the end zone 3 times in that span. The potential limited volume in an easy win this week makes him more of a WR2 than a WR1 against the Jags.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Claypool gets a difficult matchup on paper, but his usage has been very reliable over the past few weeks and Washington has been vulnerable to big plays, an area where Claypool has had success this year. The Football Team has given up more 40+ yard completions this year (9) than every team in the league except the Chargers (10). Pittsburgh hasn’t made a living on the deep ball this year, with only 8 completions of 30+ yards on the season, but 5 of those 8 went to Claypool. Washington has allowed the 2^nd fewest WR points per game and ranks 3^rd in pass defense DVOA, but Claypool has had 8+ targets in each of the last 5 games and his splash play prowess gives him additional upside in this one. The absence of James Conner should result in even more passing volume for this offense despite a likely positive game script. Roethlisberger attempted a season-high 51 passes last week with Conner sidelined. Claypool’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling this week even though it looks like a tough spot. Fire him up as a WR2 this Monday.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): This week isn’t a great one to bet on a ceiling game out of Herbert. The Patriots have struggled against the pass on paper, ranking 30^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also slow the game down when they can and limit play volume on the other side. New England ranks 29^th in pace in the first half of games (seconds per offensive play run), and 31^st in pace when they have a lead. They’ve allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in 6 of their 11 games, and 2 or fewer total TDs to the opposing QB in 8 of 11. They also haven’t allowed any QB they’ve faced to throw 35 or more pass attempts. Herbert has thrown the ball 40 or more times in 6 of his 10 starts. The rookie should be a solid high-end QB2 and passable low-end QB1 this week, but it’s not crazy to consider sitting him this week in 1-QB leagues if you have a replacement you really like this weekend. Lower volume could cap his upside.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Reports out of Miami on Saturday make it sound like Tua is trending toward starting this week, and he should be a reasonable QB2 if that proves to be the case on Sunday. The last time we saw Tua in action, he was lifted for Ryan Fitzpatrick due to a shaky performance against the Broncos when he was sacked 6 times. The Bengals aren’t anywhere near as daunting of a defense. They rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have just 13 sacks total in 11 games this season. Cincy has limited fantasy production out of Alex Smith and the combo of Daniel Jones & Colt McCoy over the last two weeks, but had allowed 2+ total TDs to 8 QBs in a row before those two games. Tua also has the benefit of a healthy Myles Gaskin at running back. I expect a solid performance in a plus matchup.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): Dobbins will return from the COVID list this week, and it comes at just the right time. Dallas is burnable opponent, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 6^th-most RB points per game. We saw on Wednesday how uninspiring a healthy dose of Gus Edwards can be (10 yards and a TD on 9 carries vs. Pittsburgh). The Ravens get both Dobbins and Mark Ingram back this week, but in the last two games both were healthy for, Dobbins saw 20 carries and 4 targets to Ingram’s 7 and 2. The game script should be very positive in this game assuming Lamar Jackson is able to play. Baltimore was favored by a TD with Lamar’s status still uncertain. I’d look for 15 or so touches from Dobbins this week, and a strong likelihood he finishes the week as an RB2.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy production has been wildly uneven since the team signed Le’Veon Bell. He’s put up fantasy point totals of 12.8, 4.6, 10.9, 20.2, and 4.4 in the 5 games with Bell active. He did, however, play his highest snap share yet with Bell on the roster in week 12, and he’s found the end zone 4 times in those last 5 games. Denver is a defense that is easier to attack on the ground than through the air, especially since AJ Bouye returned from IR in week 7. The Broncos have allowed 18.5 or more QB points in 8 games this year. Bouye was inactive for 5 of them and left one of the other 3 with injury. Denver ranks just 19^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game. There is risk with CEH every week, but this is a week that I would bet on him returning RB2 value. Make sure he suits up before pulling the trigger. He was questionable with an illness as of Saturday.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Gibson has been on fire lately, finishing as a top-8 fantasy back in 4 of his last 5 games (and the RB17 in the other). He found the end zone 8 times in those 5 games, with at least 1 score in each, but I’m here to dump a little cold water on the rookie this week. Gibson’s hot streak has coincided with an easier stretch of the schedule where Washington has played from ahead regularly. 3 of their 4 wins on the season came during the stretch, and Gibson still hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards in a team loss. His passing game usage has kept him fantasy viable in most of his down weeks, but he still gives way to JD McKissic on a lot of 3^rd downs when they’re trailing. In the team’s 7 losses, Gibson averages playing just 46% of the snaps gaining just 66 scrimmage yards, and Washington is an 8-point underdog against the Steelers this week. The Steelers are one of the toughest RB matchups in the league. They allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA. They also should limit Gibson’s receiving output. No team in the league allows fewer RB catches and receiving yards than the Steelers do. I know it would be hard to sit Gibson this week given the output you’ve gotten from him recently, but if he doesn’t find the end zone for the 6^th straight game, you may be cursing his name Monday.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Keep an eye on the health updates with Swift. Editor's Note: Swift is inactive for Week 13. Obviously it’ll be tough to sit him if he plays, but there were reports that his snaps would be limited if he’s able to go and he was downgraded to doubtful on Saturday. The matchup isn’t a great one with the Bears ranking 5^th in run defense DVOA, but they do allow the 8^th-most RB rushing yards per game. Swift has topped 95 scrimmage yards in 3 of his past 5 games and was heavily involved in the passing game with at least 4 targets each week in that span. I wouldn’t expect him to be nearly as involved this week if he is able to play. I’d view him more as a desperation flex, and would probably lean against playing him if he’s active.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Pittman has come into his own as the Colts’ WR1 in recent weeks, averaging nearly 7 targets per game in his last 4, and this week faces a defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game. He had a bit of a down game last week with just 2 catches for 28 yards against the Titans, but he was targeted 9 times in that game. The volume should be there again this week. Phillip Rivers has thrown the ball 36 or more times in 5 of his last 6 games, and Pittman gets the best opportunity to take advantage of this defense against Phillip Gaines thanks to Bradley Roby’s PED suspension. Gaines has allowed a team-worst 18.3 yards per completion on throws into his coverage, and allowed a 60% completion rate. Roby was injured earlier this year 3 snaps into a game against Green Bay in week 7 and missed the following game as well. The opposing WR1s in those two games were Davante Adams (13-196-2) and DJ Chark (7-146-1). I’m not saying Pittman is going to have that kind of day, but I’d be shocked if he has another 2-28 kind of performance. He’s a great value in DFS tournaments at just $4,900 on DraftKings, and a WR3 with big upside this week.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): Jeudy had a predictably terrible fantasy day last week with zero catches with practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton throwing the ball. Hinton completed just one pass all day. Drew Lock should be back under center in this one, and that should be a big help to all of the receiving weapons. Keep an eye on the injury report as Jeudy is questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s got a healthy amount of upside. The entire passing game struggled in the first meeting with Kansas City, including Jeudy who posted 2 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. In the 4 games since that meeting (not including last week), Jeudy has averaged 10 targets and 76 receiving yards per week. He gets a tough individual matchup this week with Bashaud Breeland, but the Broncos should be throwing a lot this week and that volume will keep Jeudy in play as an upside WR3 if he’s able to take the field.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Aiyuk should return from his stint on the COVID/reserve list this week, and he was performing well before being placed on it. The rookie had topped 70 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games he played in, but Deebo Samuel wasn’t active for any of them. His return should make the target breakdown tougher to predict with both active. Samuel commanded 13 targets in an upset win last weekend while Aiyuk was out, and having the duo out there together this week will probably limit the ceiling for each. The Bills have a formidable secondary with Levi Wallace and Tre’Davious White each allowing right around 8 yards per target. Neither corner is allowing even 3 yards after catch per completion into their coverage. Aiyuk averages 5 yards after catch per reception. Samuel averages 13. Kyle Shanahan is creative enough that he’ll be able to scheme the ball to these guys in positions to make plays, but only Seattle has managed to get two receivers to 10 fantasy points against Buffalo in the Bills’ last 8 games. If only one 49er gets to 10, there is a chance it’s Aiyuk who has the solid game, but my money would be on Samuel after what we saw from him last week. Aiyuk is on the flex radar Sunday.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Lamb should be a floor flex play once again this week in another tough matchup. He’ll draw coverage from Marlon Humphrey in the slot. Humphrey has allowed just 6.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and zero touchdowns. The Cowboys are probably going to play from behind and will have to throw, and Lamb has 4 receptions in each of his last 4 games. He’s got the raw talent to have a big game unexpectedly, but if you’re playing him you just hope he gets in the end zone or clears 10 PPR points.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Higgins did manage to post a 5-44-1 line on 5 targets in Brandon Allen’s first start last weekend, but that’s pretty much what a successful week is going to look like for him with Burrow out. Tyler Boyd did lead the Bengals in targets last week and he gets the best individual matchup of the Cincy receivers this week, facing Nik Needham in the slot. Higgins will match up mostly with Xavien Howard, who has been tough but given up some big plays. He’s allowed just a 46% completion rate into his coverage, but has given up 15 yards per completion and 3 touchdowns on the year. Higgins is always a threat to find the end zone, and that keeps him in the flex discussion, but you’ll probably need him to score to provide a useful fantasy day.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Mooney and Mitch Trubisky seemed to have a connection early in the year even with Mooney playing limited snaps, and Trubisky continued to look his way in his return to the starting QB role. In the first two weeks of the season, Mooney turned 6 Trubisky targets into 6 catches for 74 yards and a TD. The efficiency wasn’t nearly as high last week against Green Bay, but Trubisky threw Mooney’s way 9 times in the loss. It resulted in 3 catches for 34 yards. The game script should be a bit more positive this week for Chicago, so passing volume could be down, but against Detroit’s rag-tag secondary the efficiency should be better. The Lions rank just 28^th in pass defense DVOA, and allow the 9^th-most WR points per game. Mooney has been a dicey flex option most weeks, only reaching 60 receiving yards in 1 game this year, so he’s more of a desperation option this week, but I do like his chances of having one of his better games of the year.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 13: @GB): There was a lot of talk of Hurts getting to play a bit more last week with the way Carson Wentz has been struggling, but that didn’t really come to fruition on Monday night with Hurts playing just 2 snaps. He did make a crisp throw to Alshon Jeffery on one of those snaps, but it looks like he’ll have to supplant Wentz as the starter to have any fantasy value. For his part, Wentz didn’t really do anything to inspire confidence in his ability to get the job done against the Seahawks, but Philly has so much invested in their QB that it would take an awful lot for them to bench him. Keep an eye on the situation, but for now Hurts is no more than a stash for 2-QB formats with more value in dynasty leagues than redraft.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 13: @SF): The 49ers defense allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and has been getting healthier, and Moss is still splitting snaps with Devin Singletary. He’s been playing slightly more than his backfield counterpart, but he’s only reached 60% of the offensive snaps once all year and Cam Akers is the only running back to score 11+ fantasy points against the 49ers while playing less than 66% of the snaps. In fact, Frank Gore is the only non-Ram to run for more than 60 yards against San Francisco all year, and that was back in week 2. If Moss falls into the end zone in this one he’d return at least flex value, but I’d probably avoid making that bet. Josh Allen is as likely (actually more likely) to get the goal line rushing opportunities as Moss.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): The return of Austin Ekeler puts a pretty solid cap on Josh Kelley’s opportunity going forward. It was nice to see Kelley get into the end zone to vulture a TD from Ekeler last weekend, but it’s entirely possible that he goes to the bench for Kalen Ballage when Ballage gets healthy, which could happen as soon as this week. Kelley has played less than 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 weeks, and Ekeler and Ballage haven’t both been active at the same time in any of them. There is more chance of Kelley’s playing time going down than up if this backfield is healthy.

RB Anthony McFarland Jr., PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): With James Conner out after testing positive for Covid-19, this seemed to be a golden opportunity for the Steelers to get McFarland more involved and see what the rookie can do. He did play his highest snap count of the year on Wednesday against the Ravens, but that was still just 19% of the offensive snaps and he ended the day with just 4 touches and 26 scrimmage yards. The Washington defense he faces this week allows fewer RB points per game than Baltimore. You can’t roll him out there in any leagues this week even though Conner is expected to be out again.

RB DeeJay Dalls, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): With Chris Carson back in action Dallas didn’t play a single offensive snap last week. I don’t foresee a big playing time spike this week that would result in him being a playable fantasy option. The Giants allow the 14^th-most RB points per game, but Dallas isn’t the one who will be scoring those points for Seattle.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): In case you missed the news Saturday, Ahmed is listed as doubtful and isn’t expected to play in this game. Even if he were surprisingly able to suit up, Myles Gaskin has been activated off injured reserve and will function as the lead back. Ahmed would only see change-of-pace work or garbage time work if he ends up active on Sunday.

WRs Laviska Shenault & Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 13: @Min.): Collin Johnson announced himself with some authority last weekend, posting 4-96-1 on a team-high 8 targets. We’ve seen throughout his career that Glennon likes big targets on the outside, and the 6’6” Johnson fits the bill. Unfortunately for him, the return of DJ Chark and Chris Conley this week will force him back to a backup role. The 80% snap share he played in week 12 was his highest of the season by nearly 50%. I would expect DJ Chark to be the guy Glennon looks to most often in week 13. Laviska Shenault has some upside in a plus matchup (the Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game), but Viska hasn’t been anything more than a floor flex play most of this season. He’s topped 50 scrimmage yards just 3 times all year and found the end zone just once. He’s not the kind of player you want to bet on having a big game in a week where you may need it most. I’d prefer both DJ Chark and Keelan Cole to Shenault this week.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): As I mentioned with Jerry Jeudy, there’s no reason to take anything away from last week’s game with Kendall Hinton at QB. Burn the tape and throw it away and pretend it never happened when looking at Denver pass catchers. Prior to last week Hamler had been putting up reasonable performances, but still comfortably behind Jeudy’s production. In the 3 games before facing the Saints, KJ totaled 14 catches for 160 yards and 1 rush for 15. Much like the rest of the Denver offense, Hamler wasn’t great in the first meeting with Kansas City as he posted just 2 catches for 24 yards on 3 targets and a rush for 10. I like his chances to exceed those numbers this time around, but he gets a tough individual matchup. Kansas City’s slot corner L’Jarius Sneed is allowing just 4.9 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and Hamler is unlikely to see as many targets as Jeudy or fellow teammate Tim Patrick. I’d leave Hamler benched this week unless Jeudy winds up inactive.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 13: @GB): Things are trending in the wrong direction for Reagor to be able to make a fantasy impact as a rookie. He was shaping up to have WR1 usage for this team for a few weeks there, playing 73, 88, and 93% of the offensive snaps in the three games prior to week 12, but last week he lost snap share to Alshon Jeffery. Reagor played just 61% of the snaps in week 12. The Eagles are also likely to get Zach Ertz back from IR this week, and that could siphon targets away from the rest of the passing game. Ertz was averaging 7.5 targets per game before going down with injury, and while he wasn’t particularly efficient with those targets, Carson Wentz still looks to him as a safety blanket. Reagor has been averaging about 6 targets per game and 31.5 receiving yards per game over the last 4 contests, and any volume coming away from that will make him pretty unusable for fantasy purposes. The opponent this week, Green Bay, allows the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, so it isn’t a plus matchup for Reagor. There’s a chance that getting Ertz back as an underneath weapon helps open up the deep passing game more and helps Reagor, but I’d rather see that before I trust it’s going to happen. The Eagles’ passing game as a whole has been a mess this year.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): I’ve tried to predict potential breakout games for Duvernay a couple times this year without much luck, so I’m not going to do that this week. Dallas is a great matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 3^rd-most points per game to the position. They’ve also been burned for big plays, allowing 8 catches of 40+ yards on the season (only Washington and the Chargers have allowed more), but Duvernay hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this year. The addition of Dez Bryant has resulted in more target competition for Duvernay, making his breakout game even more unlikely. Bryant has been targeted 7 times in the last two weeks. Duvernay has been active for all 11 games and has just 23 targets for the season.

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 13: @NYJ): The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-most WR points per game, and you still can’t trust either of these rookie wide receivers to help your fantasy squad this week. Ruggs has reached double-digit fantasy points just once all year, and hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in any game. Is there a chance he hits a big play and has a good game? Sure, but if he doesn’t, I hope you enjoy your 2-25 on 4 targets line. Bryan Edwards played just 30% of the snaps last week in a blowout loss where the Raiders were throwing all game. He’s well behind Nelson Agholor and Ruggs for playing time right now.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Kenny Golladay is on track to miss yet another game this week, but Danny Amendola seems to be on track to return. Golladay missed the first meeting with the Bears, a game where Cephus saw 10 targets come his way, but his role has pretty much evaporated since then. Quintez has been no more than the team’s part-time WR3 with Kenny out, and has seen exactly 2 targets in each of the last 4 games. He’ll need more volume than that to be useful, and you can’t count on him getting it this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 13: @Ten.): This is a decent matchup for a tight end with the Titans allowing the 8^th-most TE points per game, but Bryant has been a non-factor as a receiver since Austin Hooper returned to the lineup. Bryant has just 1 catch on two targets over the last 3 games combined despite playing more than 55% of the offensive snaps in each game. He’s more of a run blocker than a receiving threat right now, and isn’t likely to help you this week in any formats.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Kmet has seen his snap share increase in 4 straight games – he even played 30 more offensive snaps than Jimmy Graham last week – but Graham is still the tight end seeing the targets and receiving yards. Kmet has just 3 catches for 17 yards on 7 targets over the last 4 games. Graham has posted 11-100-1 on 19 targets in that same span. The changing of the guard hasn’t happened yet, and Detroit allows the 9^th-fewest TE points per game.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 13: @Ari.): Akers hasn’t reached the point where he’s a good weekly fantasy option just yet, but he’s at least part of the rotation again. In weeks 5, 6 and 7, Akers played a total of 17 offensive snaps. Since then he’s averaged 17 per game, and his play has improved as Darrell Henderson’s has faded. Henderson has just 24 rushing yards on 18 carries in the last 2 weeks while Akers has 101 yards on 14 carries. He’s their only back that has given them any kind of spark in the running game in recent weeks, and it’s bound to lead to more opportunities for the rookie. It’s not great that 31% of his scrimmage yards from the past 4 weeks came from one play, but he’s trending in the right direction. It would take some serious balls to play him in a less than ideal matchup this week (Arizona allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game, and this is still a 3-man committee backfield), but he shouldn’t be sitting out there on the waiver wire in most leagues. He remains available in 65% of ESPN leagues.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. LV): Mims is currently one of the most overlooked weekly WR options in fantasy football. I get that the Jets are a terrible team, but there has been fantasy production to take advantage of here. Mims is available in 91% of ESPN fantasy leagues, and all he’s done since getting activated in week 7 is average 6.6 targets and 57 yards per game. In the past 3 games those numbers are at 7.7 and 66. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but it’s coming. This week he gets a favorable matchup against struggling rookie corner Damon Arnette. Arnette has allowed a team-worst 75% completion percentage on throws into his coverage, and while he hasn’t been tested deep very much, Mims has the wheels to burn him if the Jets test it out. Mims ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine while Arnette ran 4.56. The Jets as usual should be playing from behind and throwing a bunch, and I like Mims’ chances of posting his best fantasy game of the season.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 13: @SF): The 49ers are not an easy matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8^th-fewest points per game to the position, but we saw again last week that Davis typically produces when John Brown is out of the lineup. Davis has caught for 50+ yards 4 times this season, and 3 of them came in the 4 games where Brown played less than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps (3 games Brown missed and one that he left early with injury). Davis has also played at least 95% of the offensive snaps in all 3 games Brown missed. Jason Verrett isn’t an easy matchup on the outside, but #1 receiver Stefon Diggs will be dealing with Richard Sherman on the other side. Davis isn’t much more than an upside dart throw in DFS tournaments or a deep league flex option, but 50+ yards is probably a reasonable expectation.

WR Isaiah Coulter, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Editor's Note: Coulter is inactive for this week's matchup. Coulter has been gifted a huge opportunity thanks to the positive PED test and suspension of Will Fuller this week. Coulter is expected to step into Fuller’s spot in the lineup at least until Randall Cobb returns from IR (it’s unclear how the lineup will look when Cobb returns since both Cobb and Keke Coutee are best suited to the slot), and any full time role with Deshaun Watson as your QB warrants a look from fantasy players. Coulter is a bit raw after playing at the FCS level for Rhode Island, but he has the tools and traits to develop into a decent NFL receiver. He’s got speed, running a 4.45 40-yard dash at the combine. That isn’t Will Fuller fast, but it’s fast enough. He also steps into an offense with a lot of passing volume, and one where most of the receiving volume goes to the wide receivers. The Texans are 5^th in the league in passing yards with Watson averaging 291 yards per game, and 70% of their receiving yards have gone to the receivers. With that situation, Coulter is worth stashing in deep leagues, but he shouldn’t be plugged in anywhere this week. His fantasy ceiling will only come if he’s able to replace Fuller’s deep threat role, and the Colts have allowed just 4 completions of 40+ yards all year. This isn’t a week to hope for a big play from Isaiah. He should be monitored though.

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Trautman isn’t a name that most people know, but he’s actually led the Saints in tight end snaps in each of the past 3 games, likely because he’s a better run blocker than Jared Cook & Josh Hill and the team has been run-heavy with Taysom Hill at QB. There haven’t been a ton of targets for the rookie (he’s had one catch on one target in each of Hill’s two starts, including 1-19 against these Falcons), but matchups don’t get better for tight ends than this one. Atlanta allows a league-high thirteen TE points per game. I wouldn’t play him in season-long leagues, but he’s a decent dart throw for DFS tournaments. He’ll cost the minimum for normal DraftKings tournaments, and just $400 on the Showdown slate for the Saints-Falcons game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. There are a lot of rookies with fluid injury situations this week, and COVID could strike a player at any time, so make sure to check the active/inactive updates before kickoff and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

1 Pass Completion

A trio of position players completed passes this week. Perhaps, I should be more specific that they each completed one pass to their own team, but more on that in a moment. On Thursday, we saw Logan Thomas, a TE on a Football Team, hit Terry McLaurin on a 28-yard completion in the first quarter, the longest pass play of the day for Washington. Washington only really needed Antonio Gibson on Thursday, but we’ll get to him in a little bit. Cole Beasley joined in the fun on Sunday, throwing a 20-yard pass to Gabriel Davis in the Bills’ victory over the Chargers. Which brings us to the more infamous player who completed only one pass on Sunday. This, of course, needs a qualifier, because Kendall Hinton did complete two passes to the wrong team, and only one to his own team. A stat line of 1 for 9 with 2 INTs is not something I thought I would see in the NFL in a game that didn’t include some sort of blizzard or hurricane. Here we are, in 2020, where a practice squad player gets to start at QB because he was a backup QB in college.

51.4 Fantasy Points

We’re not here for tiny numbers, generally speaking, though sometimes they can be fun. Let’s break down the top fantasy performance of the season. Tyreek Hill did most of his damage in the first quarter, coming just a few yards shy of the all-time record for receiving yards in a single quarter. Hill started off with a 34-yard completion on the very first play of the game. He added another 23 yards on the same drive and had 57 yards total before 2 minutes had elapsed in the game. Two drives later, Hill got loose behind the defense and caught a 75-yard touchdown, his 6^th receiving TD from Patrick Mahomes of 50 yards or more. A good quarter, you say? There was still 7 minutes left to go! On the next Chiefs drive, Hill caught 3 more passes, capping it off with a 44-yard TD reception. Hill ended the quarter with 7 receptions on 7 targets for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. In comparison, Hill slacked off the rest of the game and finished with “only” 13 receptions for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns.

3 Touchdowns on the Ground

Tyreek Hill wasn’t the only player to find the end zone three times in Week 12. A pair of running backs managed that feat. First, on Thursday, Antonio Gibson was all the offense that Washington needed to defeat the Cowboys in their annual “why do the same teams always play on Thanksgiving?” afternoon naptime entertainment. Gibson started the game just fine, scoring early to put fantasy owners at ease. It was his finish that was truly impressive. He had fourth-quarter touchdown runs of 23 and 37 yards to turn his average day into the best game of his rookie season. A pick-six by Washington on the play following Gibson’s last touchdown put away the game for the Football Team and also buried the Cowboys' last playoff hopes for this year. Gibson was outdone on Sunday by Derrick Henry, who did almost all of his damage in the first half against the Colts. Henry finished with 178 yards and 3 more touchdowns. This brings his season totals to a league-leading 1,257 rush yards and 12 touchdowns, just one behind Dalvin Cook.

1 WR Over 1,000 Yards

We’re 12 weeks into the season, so while almost every team has played 11 games, we have just one wide receiver averaging 100 yards per game, Davante Adams at 100.9 yds/gamee – a definite departure from the high-flying passing numbers that we’ve seen in recent years. Tyreek Hill is the only WR who has cracked the 1,000-yard mark (1,081) and it took a monster game from him on Sunday to do so. His teammate, Travis Kelce, who is the TE1, 2, and 3 is second in the league in receiving yards with 978. On the rushing side, we have two players averaging 100 yards per game – the aforementioned Derrick Henry with 114 yds/game and Dalvin Cook just behind him at 113 yds/game. The lack of a truly dominant top end in fantasy football has probably prevented teams from running away with it and made waiver wire moves and starting the right guys in the right matchups even more important in this chaotic football season.

23 Fantasy Kicker Fantasy Points

In a surprise to no one, kicker ownership is completely off track. This week’s top kicker was Younghoe Koo of Atlanta who went 5/5 on field goals and 4/4 on extra points for a whopping 23 points, second on his team to only the D/ST, who put up 28 fantasy points on their own. Of course, the Raiders turning the ball over 5 times helped, but I digress, this is about the ridiculous ownership numbers of kickers. Going by our drinkfive writer’s league, Koo is the only kicked owned (by yours truly) of the top 12 kickers this week. In fact, only 5 of the top 20 are on a team at all. The average ownership in Fleaflicker of the top 12 kickers is only 34.5%. So have fun picking a kicker for next week, I suggest that whatever you do, just swap out the kicker you have for someone at random!