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Mike Davis (CAR) – So, it’s the end of the world as McCaffrey owners know it, and they won’t be fine for 4-6 weeks until he returns. In the meantime, Mike Davis was a hot commodity on the waiver wire. Davis could hardly get anything going last year, and his 8 receptions in garbage time last week surpassed his catch total for all of 2019. Aside from garbage time, which the Panthers are likely to find themselves in most weeks, I don’t expect Davis to be able to do very much at all. This week, the Panthers have to travel across the country to LA and play the Chargers, a team that seems to play up and down to their competition. Down is the keyword this week, I expect this game to mostly be a lot of bleh with some meh thrown in. I don’t expect much out of Davis this week, or at all while McCaffrey is out to be honest. He is not a suitable replacement in your lineup for CMC and you need to rely on the bench depth that you drafted instead of a desperation waiver wire pickup.

David Johnson (HOU) – Johnson briefly, very briefly, reminded us on opening night of the player he used to be. Last week was a different story. Given the same opportunities (11 carries, 4 targets each game), he managed a mere 50 yards from scrimmage against the Ravens. This week gets no easier when the Texans travel the Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense completely shut down Saquon Barkley in week 1 and are giving up the 4^th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. With the Texans struggling this year after inexplicably trading away their best player not named DeShaun Watson, it’s going to take some time and more than an RB past his prime to fix this team. David Johnson is a bad fantasy start this week.

Jordan Reed (SF) – Reed found the end zone twice on Sunday and reminded us all of better times, like way back in 2015 when he could score TDs and we didn’t have to wear masks everywhere. If George Kittle sits, then Reed is going to be his replacement. While Kittle may be healthier than last week, he might still sit considering all the chirping that the 49ers have done regarding the turf at Metlife Stadium, where they played last week and will play again this week. This leaves a perfect storm of Jordan Reed completely returning to the player that we know him to be – a guy who gets injured all the time. Reed seems to be perfectly set up to get bitten by the turf monster if he does get the start this week, and I freely admit that I am not using a lot of numbers to make this call. Just don’t play Jordan Reed because he’s going to let you down as he has in many years past.

Justin Herbert (LAC) – Herbert had an impressive game last week when he was thrust into the starting role just before kickoff. Without any time to think about it, he scrambled well and threw the ball with a rocket arm, if not perfect accuracy. He did seem to make a couple of rookie mistakes, like the INT he threw late in the game to let the Chiefs back in it. This week he faces the Panthers and surprisingly, they have given up the 2^nd fewest points to opposing QBs. Perhaps this is due to the fact that they’re letting everybody and their mother run rampant over them. I expect a whole week to think about the start to make Herbert look more like a typical rookie, and for the Chargers to really lean on the run game. So, Herbert was only relevant in 2 QB leagues. Definitely roster him, but I wouldn’t dive in and start him until he puts a couple of good games together.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Once or twice a year, Matty Ice is going to deliver you a proper dud. The Bears are giving up the 4^th fewest points to opposing QBs, so even though Ryan has had a good streak to start the season, I think he’s going to run into a wall this week in Chicago. The Bears limited Matt Stafford to 1 TD in Week 1, and kept Daniel Jones under 10 fantasy points last week, so they’ve had a strong showing every week so far. The only thing that Ryan might have going for him is that he will probably throw the crap out of the ball to try and get out of the 0-2 hole the Falcons find themselves in. This is just going to lead to turnovers and more misery as the Falcons find themselves as the best 0-3 team, and the Bears will find themselves as the worst 3-0 team.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

16 Point Lead

It seems that in Atlanta, no lead is safe. Most recently infamous for blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI (which still fuels memes around the internet), the Falcons have now blown back-to-back games where they led by at least 16 points. Dan Quinn has achieved the impossible – he’s become less popular in Atlanta than Covid-19. In two consecutive possessions late in the 4^th quarter, the Falcons ran the ball just once and netted -4 yards total in those drives. The second drive of that sequence featured 3 straight incompletions with less than 5 minutes remaining in the game, burning off a whole 11 seconds. Perhaps it’s too early in the season to fire a coach, but I cannot imagine a seat that is hotter than Dan Quinn’s right now, especially considering his offense is playing well for 3.5 quarters of football every Sunday.

75 TDs

This offseason was all about letting Russ cook, and that’s exactly what he’s done. Russell Wilson is now the first NFL QB to throw for at least 4 TDs in each of his first three games of the season. If there was an MVP for September, he would be the unanimous choice. On the season, he already has 14 passing TDs, on pace for a Peyton Manning crushing 75 on the season (the current record sits at 55). Of course, Patrick Mahomes was on pace to break this record back in 2018, but only managed (“only”) 50 TDs. Wilson is slightly ahead of Mahomes’ pace – he was at 13 after 3 games, and only managed one over the next two weeks. I think it’s certainly plausible that Wilson can keep up a record-breaking pace for quite a while. To go along with this, he’s also the #1 player in fantasy football, already cracking 100 points on the season. #LetRussCook

12 Total TDs

Right on the heel of Wilson’s great start is Josh Allen taking the Bills to 3-0. On the season, Allen has 10 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs, 1,038 passing yards and has totaled 94.92 fantasy points, good for 2^nd overall. If it was not for Wilson, then Allen might be at the top of the MVP discussion, alongside Aaron Rodgers – the last of the top QBs without a turnover on the season. Allen has shown some vast improvement this season. His first two years, his best completion rate was only 58.8%, but he currently sits at 71.1% on the season and has only thrown one interception so far. He’s already matched his TD total from his rookie season, and he’s halfway to matching 2019 through 3 games. Allen is perhaps the most improved player and is the kind of fantasy pick that will help people win leagues – Allen’s ADP put him at QB8 and was being drafted sometime in the 8^th round in most drafts.

260 Kicking Yards

One of my new favorite changes in 2020 for fantasy football is the ability to directly award kickers for their exact yardage, instead of truncating the number and just giving 3, 4, 5, etc. This allowed Stephen Gostkowski to really max out his score on Sunday, where he kicked 6 field goals for a total of 260 yards, and threw an extra point in there for good measure. Under the old scoring system, he would have had 25 points, but yesterday, he put up 27 points, which is good for 1^st place among kickers by nearly 10 points. His 27 points Sunday are more points than 8 of the top 20 kickers have scored all season long. I don’t often devote an entry in this column for a kicker, but perhaps more performances like this one will change that. Mason Crosby deserves an honorable mention. His 41.6 points on the season put him just behind Gostkowski, but his perfect 7 for 7 FGs and 13 for 13 XPs certainly deserve praise. Until next week, have fun picking a kicker – 8 of the top 13 kickers this week are owned in only 26% or less of Fleaflicker leagues.

-3.33 Points per Week

Usually, you want to stream your D/ST against a team that struggles, and more on that in a minute, but let’s first marvel at the team you do not want your D/ST to go against. In 3 weeks, the D/ST going up against the Green Bay Packers have scored -4, -3 and -3 points. The Packers have scored 36 points or more in every game so far, and have only given up one sack each of the last two weeks. Perhaps this information isn’t that helpful to you to win at fantasy football, but it’s certainly something to marvel at, and that’s the real point of this column. If you want points, start whoever is playing the Jets, like the Colts in Week 3, who put up 26 points from 3 turnovers and 2 TDs. Or stream whoever is going against the Eagles, who have seen Wentz give up 2 INTs in every game so far this season, to go along with 11 total sacks. It won’t get any better for the Eagles, who now face the 49ers, Steelers and Ravens in their next 3 games.  

After 3 weeks of play, we can always draw some conclusions based on trends that are observed over the first few games. In this case, I've chosen a few players that have downward trends associated with their performances in Weeks 1-3. We'll see what comes to pass, but don't ignore the trends once they reach 3+ games - after a certain period of time they are statistically likely to continue or level off rather than to reverse course. Is it just about the matchups? Is it about a certain style of play or what schemes the coaches are running? Draw your own conclusions, of course, but use the information below to help with that as you see fit.

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) – Surprise! Jackson finished the 2019 fantasy season as the #1 QB overall with a ridiculous 421.7 fantasy points. The next best was Dak Prescott with 348.9 points. Crazy, right? Well, so far in 2020, Jackson is the #13 QB overall with only 19.8 fantasy points per game (59.3 total). For reference, the QBs on the top like Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Prescott, and Murray are all averaging around 30 fantasy points per game through the first three games.

Week 1 (vs. CLE): 20/25, 80% comp, 275 yards, 3 TDs, 7/45 rushing, 0 TDs – 27.5 fpts

Week 2 (@ HOU): 18/24, 75% comp, 204 yards, 1 TD, 16/54 rushing, 0 TDs – 17.56 fpts

Week 3 (vs. KC): 15/28, 53.6% comp, 97 yards, 1 TD, 9/83 rushing, 0 TDs – 14.18 fpts

What information can we garner from these stats? Well, Jackson has been trending down in several categories game over game: completions, completion percentage, and passing yards. Granted the Texans and Chiefs have better passing defenses than the Browns so far this season (at #20 and #17 highest fantasy points against QBs respectively vs. #10 for the Browns), but it’s disconcerting to see him not even break into the top 10 when he was being drafted in as high as the 1^st and 2^nd rounds of fantasy drafts earlier this year. Ouch. All of that said, what is the prognosis for Jackson over the coming weeks? He plays @WAS in Week 4 (#14 fantasy points against QBs), vs. CIN in Week 5 (#25 fantasy points against QBS), and @PHI in Week 6 (#19 fantasy points against QBs). Does it get better? Not really... in the weeks that follow, the Ravens play PIT, IND, NE, and TEN. You are going to keep Jackson on your squad because of his rushing and big play ability, but it is impossible to ignore this downturn. Week 4 is Jackson’s chance to bust out with a big fantasy game and experts still have him on top of the QB heap, but if it is a miss as well there is something not quite right in Baltimore. Run-first is a philosophy we can deal with – run-always is a problem. Marquise Brown is also tied in to this directly with Jackson as the WR1 in Baltimore (12.6, 6.7, 2.3)

Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI) – Drake had a fabulous finish to the 2019 season. He was traded to the Cardinals before Week 9 last year and immediately made his mark on the offense, putting up 162 all-purpose yards and a TD on the ground. Later that same season in Weeks 15-17, he amassed 363 rushing yards along with 7 TDs over those 3 games. It was hard to believe, but those points were very real. Especially to fantasy team managers that were playing against Drake late in the post-season. So far this year, though, he is the #24 RB overall with 32.4 fantasy points (half PPR) which is an average of 10.8 per game. For a running back being drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round earlier this year, that is very disappointing. Let us look at the first 3 games of the 2020 season:

Week 1 (@ SF): 16/60 rushing, 1 TD, 2/5 receiving, 0 TDs – 13.5 fpts

Week 2 (vs. WAS): 20/86 rushing, 0 TDs, 2/9 receiving, 0 TDs – 10.5 fpts

Week 3 (vs. DET): 18/73 rushing, 0 TDs, 1/6 receiving, 0 TDs – 8.4 fpts

What can we learn from this information… well, his amount of touches has been consistent – averaging around 20 per game, so he has the opportunities available to him. He has not gotten very much work in the passing game with Chase Edmonds being a factor (8 receptions including 1 rec. TD in the first 3 games), but the major problem with fantasy production has been his inability to break big plays during the game. This may all change this week, of course. Going up against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 provides a terrific matchup. The Panthers are giving up 32.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. If Drake cannot snap out of this funk in Week 4, his value will plummet, and we may see Edmonds start to chip away at his touches. If I had to bet money on this matchup, though, and I basically am since I’m both playing him and playing against him in multiple fantasy matchups this week, I would say we’re about to see Drake’s biggest game of the season. Could be 15-20 fantasy points in this trend-breaker.

Robby Anderson (WR, CAR) – A brand new weapon for the Panthers, Anderson had more than 100 yards in both weeks 1 and 2. The tallest of the starting receivers in Carolina at 6’3” and also coming with a bonus sub-4.4 40-yard dash that we saw often with his time on the Jets.

Week 1 (vs. LV): 6/8, 114 yds, 1 TD – 22.4 fpts

Week 2 (@ TB): 9/10, 109 yds, 0 TD – 13.4 fpts

Week 3 (@ LAC): 5/5, 55 yds, 0 TD – 8 fpts

With the Chargers focusing on taking D.J. Moore away, Anderson again took a large amount of the team’s targets (the most, actually) and was able to haul in all of them for 5 receptions. The Panthers were able to cruise to a victory using mostly Mike Davis and Joey Slye, but we should continue to see Anderson utilized in the passing game and developing more chemistry with Bridgewater from game to game. Anderson is being used constantly on this team and less of the boom/bust target he was on the Jets, so he seems to be a quality WR3 candidate going forward. His next matchup in Week 4 is against a stingy Arizona passing defense allowing only 15.5 fantasy points per game to WRs, but Week 5 looks like a much tastier matchup against the Falcons who have the 3^rd worst passing D in the league.

Three weeks are in the books, and that means that it's time for us to check out some player trends. After all, in a row does a trend make. Or at least that's what Dave says. Anyways, there's been a ton of points this season, so let's take this time to look at the players who are consistently improving on a weekly basis. These are guys who are both studs that you might expect to see atop the fantasy rankings, and guys who are moving their way up from the depths of the preseason ADP charts.

James Robinson (RB-JAX) – Wk 1 vs IND – 9.5, Wk 2 @ TEN – 19.5, Wk 3 vs MIA – 27.9. Robinson was the lone bright spot on the Jaguars last week. He has trended up for three weeks in a row in lots of categories – total yards, total points, touchdowns scored and even receptions. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, he is in the top 20 for both carries and receptions. He’s the overall RB5 on the season. There’s almost no competition for him at his position on the Jaguars, so Robinson looks like he needs to be an every week starter. Coming up, Jacksonville goes to Cincy and Houston, followed by playing Detroit at home before their bye week. All of these teams are in the top 7 when it comes to giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Now is the time to try and acquire Robinson, as his value is only bound to go up.

Jerick McKinnon (RB-SF) – Wk1 vs ARI – 11.9, Wk 2 @ NYJ – 13.7, Wk 3 @ NYG – 15.2. McKinnon has scored a touchdown in all 3 games so far this season, a great trend for fantasy football. It may even hold for a while considering how banged up the 49ers backfield is. He was used sparingly in the first two weeks, getting only 9 total touches, though he was also used in the return game a bit. With nobody else to take carries from him last week, he had 17 total touches. That’s a usage rate that I expect to continue as long as Coleman and Mostert are sidelined. Even when they come back, it seems as though McKinnon will see some touches, and if his knack for scoring touchdowns continues, it would be silly to keep him on the sidelines. Coming up the 49ers have 3 straight home games against Philly, Miami and the Rams, all of whom are middle of the pack when it comes to giving up points to opposing RBs.

Justin Jefferson (WR-MIN) – Wk 1 vs GB – 3.6, Wk 2 @ IND – 5.9, Wk 3 vs TEN – 27. Jefferson was the Vikings 1^st round pick this year and he has been thrown right into the offense. He’s increased his receptions, targets and yards each week, topping out last week with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 175 yards. He also found the end zone and his 27 points made him the WR2 on the week. There is a Stefon Diggs sized hole on the Vikings offense, and Jefferson looks like he might fill it very nicely. Coming up are games at Houston and Seattle, followed by Atlanta at home and then the bye week. Houston is halfway respectable against the WR, but Seattle and Atlanta are giving up the 1^st and 3^rd most points to opposing WRs, respectively. It’s time to get Jefferson on your team and into your lineup.

Keenan Allen (WR-LAC) – Wk 1 @ CIN – 5.7, Wk 2 vs KC – 13.1, Wk 3 vs CAR – 23.7. Allen is known as one of the players with the largest share of his team’s targets on an annual basis. He is currently tied with DeAndre Hopkins with a league leading 37 targets. His targets, receptions and yardage have all gone up week to week. Last week he added on a touchdown to make him WR4 on the week and WR12 on the season. Allen catching 13 passes on 19 targets from rookie Justin Herbert is a great sign as well. The distribution of the targets can suddenly shift when a new QB enters the scene, however it looks like Herbert is firmly focused on his top WR now. Upcoming games in Tampa and New Orleans, followed by hosting the Jets will all be tough. Tampa gives up the 12^th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, and they’re the least stingy of that group. I guess we finally found something that the Jets don’t suck at. Still, Allen is a solid WR1 and needs to be in your lineup every week, regardless of who is at QB for the Chargers.