Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

37 Completions

Thursday night, the Bengals unleashed their #1 overall pick in a prime-time game – though if you didn’t have NFL network handy, you struggled to find it. Broadcast rights aside, this Browns-Bengals matchup was better than it had any business being. In only his second game of his professional career, Joe Burrow attempted 61 passes, completing 37 of them for 316 yards and 3 TDs with zero interceptions. The 37 completions are a record for rookie passers. Now, perhaps, the Bengals would like to consider acquiring a defense so that their rookie’s arm doesn’t fall off by the end of the season.

50 years

Raheem Mostert, one of 49 (probably) players injured for San Francisco, recorded a feat that hasn’t been done in over 50 years. He became the first player in 50+ years to score a TD of 75+ yards in the first two weeks of a season. Last week, he had a 76-yard TD reception, and yesterday he opened the game with an 80-yard TD run where he was clocked at a blazing 23.09 MPH. Seriously. Get in your car and drive 23 mph and see if anyone could possibly keep up. Hell, Mostert would have been speeding on the street that I grew up on. Limited to only 10 touches since apparently injuries are more contagious than Covid-19 to the 49ers, Mostert still sits as this week’s RB14, and the RB4 on the season. Hopefully Mostert can stay on the field as he has the two fastest speeds clocked by ball carriers this season – and they’re the fastest regular season numbers since 2016.

75,000 Yards

Tom Brady became the second player, behind fellow quadragenarian Drew Brees, to reach the 75,000 passing yards mark. Brady has yet to really impress in a fantasy football sense this season, but he did lead his team to an impressive victory over the, admittedly lame, Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The question of whether Brady still “has it” is unresolved in my mind, but he does win games, so we can go ahead and give him credit for this one. He does need to stop throwing interceptions – that’s 4 games in a row including the playoffs last year. Nonetheless, we celebrate Brady’s 75,000 yards, a distance so damn far that it would take Raheem Mostert nearly 2 hours (111 minutes) running at full speed to cover all those passing yards. You can tack on another 17 minutes to include his playoff yardage.

60+ Fantasy Points

So far in this short season, 4 QBs are averaging 30+ fantasy points per game. Leading the pack is no surprise, it’s Russell Wilson, who has an amazing 82.5% completion rate to go with 9 passing TDs already. It’s the 3 players who also average 30+ per game that may have you surprised. In order, you have Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Kyler Murray. Between them they have 8 rushing TDs, obviously an invaluable asset to fantasy football QBs. Amazingly, Cam Newton has landed here with only 1 passing TD in 2 games so far this season.  Last year’s MVP, Lamar Jackson sits just outside the top 10, just a few points ahead of 2020 Rookie of the Beginning of the Year Joe Burrow.

43.6 Fantasy Points

Aaron Jones is insane. This is the note that was my placeholder and I really can’t start this section any better. Since the start of last year, he has 13 games over 15 points (and 2 more games of 14.8 points). Two of those games are over 40 points, 8 of those are 22+ points or better. On Sunday, Jones was everywhere. He carried the ball 18 times for 168 yards, good for a 9.3 yards per carry average. He found the end zone twice on the ground and once more through the air, where he added 4 catches for 68 yards. His performance in Week 2 was so dominant over all other RBs that the difference between Jones and the RB2, Nick Chubb, is an entire Raheem Mostert – 17.8 points! If you take the highest non-QB, non-Jones scorer in Week 2, Calvin Ridley, you would need to increase his output by 65% just to reach Aaron Jones’s performance. This guy is insane, and the Packers are really, really good this year.

Dion Lewis (NYG) – Saquon is done for the season, and the Giants signed Devonta Freeman, but he won’t be ready yet. So, in Week 3 you can roll with Dion Lewis as a spot start. This is unlikely to last longer than a week or two, so if he has a big week, go ahead and put him on the trading block. Lewis found the end zone last week and had 14 touches against a tough Bears defense. This week, he’ll be facing the 49ers who have their own slew of injury problems. Week 1, they gave up double digit points to both Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. I expect Lewis to be in the 15+ touch range this week, and he’ll get work mostly based on the fact that he is the only 3^rd down back on the team, and I expect the Giants to find themselves in 3^rd down often.

Joshua Kelley (LAC) – While not replacing anyone directly with injury (yes, this is a stretch), the Chargers did lose their starting QB and will need to tweak their game script with Herbert taking the reins. He will lean on a strong run game for now. Both Kelley and Ekeler are tied with 35 carries on the season, good for 6^th most in the league. This week they will feast on the awful Panthers defense who are currently giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. With Kelley getting even more carries than Ekeler in Week 2, I’m not hesitant to ride with a rookie this early in the season. Ekeler has always succeeded as the second guy, and this really appears to be a 1A/1B situation they’re setting up for the Chargers.

Jerick McKinnon (SF) – McKinnon has 6 carries this season, his first since 2017. Finally healthy, he’s basically the last man standing in the 49ers backfield for now. Tevin Coleman has been put on the IR and Raheem Mostert is likely to sit this week, so it’s McKinnon all the way. He already has 2 touchdowns this season and a 55 yard run last week, showing that he’s got the talent to take advantage of the opportunities that Kyle Shanahan creates for this offense. The Giants have given up 2 good fantasy games already this season, one to backup Benny Snell and one to David Montgomery, so there’s nothing to fear in terms of this week’s matchup, aside from perhaps turf monsters, which the 49ers seem overly concerned with.

Tre’Quan Smith (NO) – Last week, with Michael Thomas out, Smith had 5 receptions on 7 targets for 86 yards, all respectable. There’s going to be plenty of extra volume to go around if Michael Thomas sits another week. The Saints play the Packers this week, who have probably been the most dominant team in the NFC. However, if there’s one thing that they don’t do incredibly well, it’s limit WRs. The Packers are giving up the 9^th most points to opposing WRs. While the Saints will surely lean on Alvin Kamara for a majority of their offense, they will still need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with Aaron Rodgers. I expect the Saints to play very well and clean up their sloppy play from Monday night. They are 10-1 following a loss since 2017, so I expect lots of fantasy fireworks in this game from both sides. Smith is a good option to slide in your lineup if you’ve been bitten by the injury bug.

Dalton Schultz (DAL) – Going in to last week’s game, Schultz had 14 career receptions. He added 9 more on Sunday on 10 targets and turned that into 88 yards and 1 TD. He did fumble once, but it seems like the Cowboys will be sticking with him due to Blake Jarwin’s torn ACL. This week is a big game against Seattle, one that could very well mirror last week’s script where Dallas finds themselves playing catchup. The Seahawks defense has been stout against the TEs so far this year, but they also haven’t faced much high profile competition yet. Dak Prescott is playing very well this season, so you need to trust in Dak to get the ball to the TE. The top players at TE have been so random this year (Smith, Fant, Gesicki, Reed, Hockenson all in the top 10), why not Schultz too?