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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s semifinal week, so hopefully your fantasy squad is still alive and kicking, and hopefully you didn’t get hit too hard by injuries last week. There were a number of players who saw their season cut short last weekend. Alshon Jeffery, Rashaad Penny, Mike Evans, Derrius Guice and Calvin Ridley were just some of the casualties that could have you looking for replacements this week. There are a few rookies who might be able to help you out with that this week. Let’s take a look at which rookies are in line for big things this week. Keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I’d play them this week…

Rookies to Start:

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): Jacobs missed last week with a cracked bone in his shoulder, but he had been playing through it pretty well for weeks before sitting in week 14, and all indications are that he will play this week. The Jaguars have gone in the tank in the last few weeks and have been one of the worst run defenses in the league. They rank 31^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allow the 4^th-most RB PPR points per game. They’ve allowed five 100-yard rushers in their last 5 games and 10 running back scores in those games. Jacobs is a strong RB2 play this week if all systems are go with his shoulder.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Arizona’s offense has looked a bit different in recent weeks compared to the early part of the season. They’ve moved away from the 4-wide receiver base sets they were using early in the year and started using the tight end position and 2-back sets more often. It’s hurt Murray’s passing yardage output but helped him find the end zone more frequently. In the first 8 games of the year, Murray totaled just 7 TD passes and averaged just under 250 yards per game. In the last 5, he’s found the end zone 9 times but averaged 215 yards per game. I’d look for him to be around 200 yards in this one, but if you play him, you’re hoping for multiple touchdowns and some rushing production for him to return value. For their part, the Browns have allowed the 8^th-most QB rushing yards per game and did let Ryan Fitzpatrick go for 45 and a score on the ground a couple weeks ago. Murray is best treated as a top-flight QB2 option with upside for more this week.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Monty has proven to be difficult to trust on a weekly basis, but the matchup here is a good one. Green Bay has been shredded on the ground for much of the season. They rank 26^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-most RB points per game. The Bears’ offense has been playing better lately and Montgomery has had at least 15 touches in 7 straight games. I’d expect him to be in the 15-20 touch range in this one, and that puts him on the RB2 radar against such a burnable defense. Montgomery did get a questionable tag this week, so make sure he plays before you start him, but the upside is there.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Singletary faces a tough matchup this week, but his usage keeps him in the flex conversation. The Steelers rank 4^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, but the biggest reason they’ve been so good against the position is their ability to keep backs out of the end zone. They haven’t allowed a running back rushing score since week 5 and have given up just 6 RB scores all year. Singletary is going to be heavily involved and should be a nice play in PPR leagues. The Steelers are favored in this one, and Singletary has had at least 6 targets in the passing game in all 3 of the Bills’ losses this year. I’d expect nice passing game usage again.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): Sanders had a forgettable performance on Monday night, showing a lack of vision that eventually had him ceding work to Boston Scott. Scott impressed enough in his opportunities that I’d expect him to steal more work from Sanders going forward. Washington is not a challenging match-up for running backs, allowing the 10^th-most PPR points per game and ranking 24^th in run defense DVOA, so even if Sanders doesn’t get a full workload he may still return usable value. There’s risk here, but Sanders is still worth consideration for a flex spot.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Brown’s match-up looked like a smash spot on paper, and he made good on it in a big way. He gets another plus matchup this week, but not quite as juicy as the one with Oakland. The Texans rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA but aren’t as giving to wide receivers as that number would imply. They allow the 15^th-most WR points per game. Brown’s production has come from big plays, and the Texans allow the 9^th-most passes of 20+ and 40+ yards. The last 2 games are the first times all year that Brown has out-snapped Corey Davis. He’s unquestionably the WR1 in Nashville now, and his connection with Tannehill has been solid. There is still a bit of a low floor with Brown, but we’ve also seen the ceiling and he’s got 80+ yards in 3 of the last 5 games. Brown is a volatile WR3 this week.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Samuel has been on fire over the last month. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 5 straight games after reaching that mark just twice in his first 7 games of the season. This week the 49ers face off with Atlanta, who allows the 12^th-most WR points per game and ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA. They also just lost both of their starting corners to injury last week. This looks like a smash spot for Deebo (and Emmanuel Sanders), but the concern is that it gets out of hand early and the Niners lean on the run. San Francisco is favored by 11 points, and Deebo has fewer than 5 targets in 2 of the last 3 games. I do like his chances at a strong game this week but be aware that there is some risk.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 15: @Car.): Metcalf has become the most consistent part of the Seahawks’ passing attack in recent weeks. He has at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of his last 5 games even as the overall passing volume for the team has been down. Seattle hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game since November 3^rd. Carolina is the worst run defense in the league, so there should be a lot of Chris Carson and limited pass volume again. Metcalf is still in play as a WR3 this week. Despite their struggles against running backs, the Panthers have also managed to allow the 7^th-most WR points per game. The limited volume puts a little damper on Metcalf’s ceiling, but he’s shown a solid floor that makes him a decent option this week.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Slayton showed out on Monday night, proving that his production wasn’t just tied to Daniel Jones. This week he gets to face the Dolphins, who allow 4^th-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, so there is plenty of upside. The potential return of Evan Engram could pull some targets away from him, but Slayton is in the WR3 discussion regardless of who suits up for the Giants. I would move him to the ‘Rookies to Start’ section if Engram sits again.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Brown has been a volatile weekly fantasy option this year. He’s topped 20 PPR points twice and topped 15 four times. He’s also finished below 7 points 5 times. The Jets are a solid run defense, and not so solid against the pass. They’ve allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game and rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. I’d expect the Ravens to try and get Brown going this week after catching 3 passes for negative 2 yards last week, but they might not be throwing much in the second half. He’ll have to do his damage early. Brown is a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Fant is questionable for this week after suffering an injury last weekend, but if he plays, he’s got a nice opportunity at a strong game. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Denver is likely to be playing from behind and throwing and Fant has scored 10+ PPR points in 3 of the last 5 games (20+ in 2 of them). I wouldn’t be considering him over an elite option at the position, but he’s not too far behind that group this week if it sounds like he’s close to 100%.

Rookies to Sit:

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): I’d be tempted to consider Blough as a deep sleeper this week if he hadn’t lost Marvin Jones for the year last Sunday. Tampa is the best run defense in the league in terms of DVOA, but they are just 19^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-most QB points per game. We’ve seen that Blough has a willingness to push the ball down the field, and the Bucs have been burnable. He’s still got Kenny Golladay, but the limited weapons and limited track record make Blough impossible to trust with your season on the line.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Lock has been a big surprise in his first two starts, but I think the hot streak ends this week. Kansas City has been playing at a high level lately. They rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last 3 games they’ve allowed just 3 passing scores and have 7 interceptions. Lock has fared well through two games, but they were against below average pass defenses. The Chiefs are not that despite allowing the 12th-most QB points per game for the year. Lock may be able to produce in garbage time if Kansas City gets out in front, but I wouldn’t be inclined to start him outside of deeper 2-QB leagues.

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Hodges should finally have a full complement of weapons to work with as JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are both expected back, but Buffalo is one of the toughest QB defenses in the league. The Bills allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game and rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges failed to capitalize on a great match-up last week, finishing as just the QB23 due to limited passing volume. I wouldn’t want to roll him out there expecting more this week in a bad match-up.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Do you really want to risk your season on a player who has thrown for less than 200 yards in 4 of 5 starts and thrown just 3 touchdowns all year? I didn’t think so.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): Thompson finally saw some real playing time last week, but still played fewer snaps than both LeSean McCoy and a fresh off the street Spencer Ware and he didn’t touch the ball until the Chiefs were up two scores. It’s entirely possible the Chiefs get out in front again this week. They’re 9 and a half point favorites, but they also are likely to have Damien Williams back. The best-case scenario for Thompson is that he gets some late run with the Chiefs out in front, but Denver allows the 12^th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing backs. You could talk yourself into trying him as a cheap DFS tournament option, but not much more.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Don’t be tempted to try Johnson with Bo Scarbrough likely to miss this week. The upside just isn’t there. He’s still going to be splitting work with JD McKissic, and the Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game in the league and rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. Look elsewhere.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Dalvin Cook clearly looked healthy enough last week against Detroit, which means Mattison will continue playing second fiddle. He’s been his most productive in blowout wins, and the Chargers just don’t get blown out. They haven’t lost by more than 7 points all year. LA does struggle to stop the run. They rank 23^rd in run defense DVOA and allow 13^th-most RB points per game. Mattison will get some touches, but this probably isn’t the best week to run him out there. He’s averaged 49.5 rushing yards per game in the 7 games Minnesota won by 2+ scores, and 16.4 in the 7 games they didn’t.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Snell’s run as the Steelers’ lead back is likely to come to an end this week. James Conner is likely to return Sunday night, and we’ve seen Snell’s efficiency and fantasy production drop over the last 3 games anyway. The Bills are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air (they rank 17^th in run defense DVOA), but I expect Snell to be playing just a change of pace role to Conner at most. If Conner is somehow out again, Snell becomes more of a dicey flex play.

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Although there is a great chance that the Ravens win in a waltz Thursday night, we’ve seen that happen several times this year and it hasn’t turned into garbage time production for Hill. Baltimore is favored by 16.5 points in this game, but that likely means a lot of Gus Edwards in the second half. Even if Hill gets extra opportunity late, the Jets rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA.

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Washington’s passing attack just isn’t consistent enough to trust any of the pass catchers in it in the most important weeks of the season. Philly does allow the 5^th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, so I understand if you have to start McLaurin in a deeper league. He’s the only receiver that has shown enough to even consider. The Eagles have been burned by Darius Slayton and DeVante Parker in the last two weeks, but each guy may have caught for more yards than Haskins is likely to throw for this week.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Johnson posted a nice game last weekend, but the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster will be a problem for him moving forward. Devlin Hodges is averaging just 20 pass attempts and 1 TD in his starts, and with JuJu taking a handful of those targets, it’s hard to imagine more than just a few for Diontae. You’re banking on a touchdown if you play him, and Buffalo is one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. I’m staying away from Johnson this week.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): The big plays are enticing, but Hardman has just 8 offensive touches in the last 6 games. He’s been productive with those touches, but they aren’t enough to count on with your season on the line.

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 15: @Cin.): Harry missed out on a touchdown last week on a blown call by the officials, but it was his only target of the game. Meyers continued to play a decent amount of the offensive snaps but has seen his targets drop each of the last two weeks as Sanu and Dorsett get healthier. The duo combined for 2 catches and 47 yards last week. There just isn’t enough here to trust in the semifinals.

WR Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL (Wk. 15: @SF): Zaccheaus came out of nowhere to score a 93-yard touchdown last week, but it was his only target of the game. He should see additional work moving forward with Calvin Ridley done for the year, but this week draws one of the best pass defenses in the league. San Francisco ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers.

WR Riley Ridley, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Ridley was the receiver thrust into action with Javon Wims going down with injury last Thursday, but there isn’t a lot of leftover receiving work to go around after Allen Robinson, and Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen will both be ahead of Ridley in the pecking order. Monitor Ridley to see how he performs with extended opportunity, but don’t use him in fantasy lineups.

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Adam Thielen is on track to return this week, and Bisi wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire in his absence. The Chargers aren’t a great matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. I wouldn’t consider Johnson anywhere this week.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): It looks like Evan Engram has a good chance to return this week, and even if he doesn’t there are higher upside options out there than Smith. I’d stay away from him this week. As bad as the Dolphins have been, they are at least a middling defense against tight ends.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): The Steelers have allowed just one tight end to reach 30 receiving yards since their week 7 bye, and Knox has just 8 catches in the last 4 weeks. Knox is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week.

TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): The Chargers allow the 9^th-fewest TE points per game, and the return of Adam Thielen this week should leave less passing volume to go around to the other weapons. Smith hasn’t had many fantasy relevant weeks this season, and I wouldn’t count on this to be one either.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 15: @Oak.): Minshew hasn’t looked quite the same since being re-inserted into the lineup in place of Nick Foles, but the Raiders are a perfect spot for him to get right. Oakland has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. The Jaguars are likely to lean on Leonard Fournette, so there may not be a ton of volume for Gardner, but against this defense he should make the most of the passes he does throw, and he’s always a candidate to add a few points with his legs. I like his chances of finishing as at least a mid-QB2, but he is just the 27^th-highest priced QB on DraftKings at $5,500.

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 15: @NYG): Laird was the full time running back last week in the Dolphins’ first game since Kalen Ballage was hurt, playing 82% of the offensive snaps. While 15 carries for 48 yards doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, it’s more impressive than it looks on the surface. Ballage couldn’t manage to run for 2 yards per carry behind this offensive line. Laird averaged 3.2 per carry against the defense that ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. The Giants aren’t a pushover, but they aren’t as stingy against runners as the Jets. Laird has also seen 5 targets in each of the last 2 games, making him an interesting option in PPR leagues. I know it’s not exciting to start any Dolphins’ offensive players, but Laird is at least intriguing as a flex option in deeper leagues.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): The Eagles have to throw the ball to someone, and only JJ and Greg Ward are healthy at this point. The Eagles will undoubtedly use two tight end sets as their base offense, but JJAW will be on the field almost every snap. Washington ranks 18^th in pass defense DVOA and Arcega-Whiteside is a big bodied receiver who excels in the red zone. He’s as good a bet as any Eagle pass catcher to find the end zone this week.

WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 15: @Det.): Miller is practicing this week and looks likely to return. I’ve seen a lot of fantasy pundits talking up Justin Watson this week with Mike Evans done for the year, but Miller and Breshad Perriman were both playing ahead of him before Miller got hurt. The Lions allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and the Bucs are a pass-happy offense. Miller is an upside option in DFS tournaments this week. He costs the minimum in DraftKings. Obviously, he shouldn’t be considered if Jameis Winston ends up sitting, so keep an eye on his status if considering Miller.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

One of our newest segments on the podcast is Pick Your Poison, where Dave, Jason and a guest pick between two close players based on the drinkfive.com player rankings. This week we were joined by site contributor Mike Mocerino. Our choices will be listed below each of the matchups. Let us know in the comments which players you would pick!

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott (#6) @ PHI or Drew Brees (#7) @ TEN

Dak Prescott was limited in practice on Wednesday for the first time in his career. This really isn’t significant for his matchup, I just thought it was an interesting tidbit to illustrate his durability. Don’t worry about Prescott’s availability for Sunday – he has a decent matchup. The Eagles are somehow giving up the 19^th most points to opposing QBs, while giving up the 3^rd most points to opposing WRs. Regardless of any anomalies you may find with Prescott, he should be in shape to have a very high floor this week against the Eagles.

Last week Drew Brees broke two impressive records, the all-time TD record and the single game completion percentage. What does he do for an encore? I suspect he’s going to throw the ball to Michael Thomas an awful lot. The Titans are giving up the 18^th most points to opposing QBs, and have only surrendered more than 22 points to one player all year, Patrick Mahomes. Brees has 9 TDs in his last 2 games, and 16 in his last 5 – I expect him to continue to ride high going into the playoffs, though his ceiling in this game is probably a little lower than the last 2 weeks.

Mike: Drew Brees, Dave: Dak Prescott, Jason: Drew Brees

Matt Ryan (#11) vs JAX or Ryan Fitzpatrick (#12) vs CIN

Ryan gets the struggling Jaguars at home, a team that gives up the 11^th most points to opposing QBs. Last week he targeted Julio Jones a whopping 20 times, and if he wants to win this completely meaningless game, then he might as well target him another 20 times. The Jaguars have given up big games to Rivers, Mahomes and Tannehill this year, and have recently kept Winston to under 11 points, so they’re kind of all over the place. Matt Ryan has a range of just 18.5-21.3 over his last 3 games, and has not put up a really big game since he went down with an injury in week 7.

Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball an awful lot this year, with at least 37 attempts each of the last 5 weeks. He has 2 games with no TDs in that span, however he did manage to rush for 65 yards in one of those. Regardless, they were against tough defenses, Buffalo and the Jets – his opponent on Sunday, the Bengals, are definitely not that. They are giving up the 9^th most points to opposing QBs. They have given up 7 games of 20 points or more this season, including Lamar Jackson’s 2-30 point games. I expect Fitzpatrick to throw the ball a ton – he’s averaging 38 attempts per game since week 7 and he’s the QB7 over the last 4 weeks.

Mike: Matt Ryan, Dave: Matt Ryan, Jason: Matt Ryan

RB

Melvin Gordon (#17) or OAK or Devin Singletary (#18) @ NE

Melvin Gordon’s snap share has dipped lately, hitting a season low of 40% last week after a high water mark of 65% just a few weeks prior. Gordon also carried the ball only 7 times, the fewest he’s seen all year. The one bright spot is that he’s had 5 receptions in each of the last 2 games, and that’s his high on the season. He’ll be facing Oakland, who give up the 13^th most points to opposing RBs, though they did surrender 19.3 to Gordon when they played back in week 10.

Devin Singletary, aka the TRUTH, has been used a lot more on the Bills. He’s seeing a 70+% snap share every week since week 11, after having a max of 68% before that. He’s got almost 18 carries per game over that time period as well and is the RB18 over the last 4 weeks. Singletary has good volume that you can chase, however his biggest problem is his opponent this week, the Patriots. New England is giving up the 2^nd fewest points to opposing RBs, though last week Joe Mixon set a season high mark against them of 15.6 points.

Mike: Mike Singletary, Dave: Melvin Gordon, Jason: Melvin Gordon

Le’Veon Bell (#24) vs PIT or Raheem Mostert (#25) vs LAR

There’s been lots of flippant talk of #RevengeGame(s) this year, but this one could be real. Bell will face his former team, and probably better for him that this is in New York (Jersey) rather than Pittsburgh. Bell has struggled both on and off the field with his team lately, but he needs to have an impressive showing in order to market himself to a new team for next season. The Steelers are giving up the 6^th fewest points to opposing RBs. They have only given up 5 double digit performances all season, and several of those were very flukey, like to David Johnson in week 14, Rashaad Penny in week 2 and Jeff Wilson (the week doesn’t matter there, it’s just an anomaly). Bell still hasn’t broken 100 rushing yards this season, and the Steelers haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher either.

Mostert is the kind of player that you picked up late and probably helped many teams make and win in the playoffs. Last week he disappointed with a 9.9 point performance, but his role on the 49ers should still be pretty safe. The game against the Falcons was something to forget for the Niners, and considering they fumbled the ball 4 times, I don’t expect a repeat. Since Matt Breida had 2 of those fumbles, I don’t see him overtaking Mostert, and Tevin Coleman has very clearly moved from the Guest House to the Dog House, with only 4 carries last week and only 13 touches in the last 3 games. The Rams are giving up the 14^th most points to opposing RBs, a number that is skewed by the fact that they gave up 48 points to Zeke and Pollard just last week.

Mike: Raheem Mostert, Dave: Le'Veon Bell, Jason: Le'Veon Bell

WR

Kenny Golladay (#14) @ DEN or Stefon Diggs (#15)  vs GB

Kenny Golladay is a very talented receiver, in fact, he broke a record that even Megatron didn’t have – he’s the first Lions receiver to have 1,000 yards in two of his first three seasons. Unfortunately, his QB is David Blough (that name again is David Blough) and that really sucks from a fantasy perspective. Blough has only 3 TDs in his 3 games, but he is throwing the ball a decent amount, averaging about 41 attempts per game (probably because the Lions are always losing). It doesn’t get any easier against Denver this week, who are giving up the 8^th fewest points to opposing WRs. The silver lining is that Denver is giving up big numbers to a lot of #1 WRs since Week 11 to guys like Diggs, Hopkins, Hill and Allen.

Speaking of a fellow NFC North wide receiver, Stefon Diggs has not been lighting it up lately, averaging only 7.5 points per game over the last 3 weeks. Diggs has had the volume, with 24 targets over that time, but his matchups have been tough. This week against Green Bay is kind of a middle-of-the-road matchup. They are giving up the 14^th fewest points to opposing WRs and held Diggs to 8.9 points back in Week 2. With Adam Thielen returning to the mix, Diggs is a mixed bag and more of a risk to than he was in the middle of the season.

Mike: Kenny Golladay, Dave: Stefon Diggs, Jason: Kenny Golladay

Anthony Miller (#31) vs KC or John Brown (#32) @ NE

Anthony Miller has been lighting it up lately, well, for a Bears WR anyways. Over his last 3 games, he has 42 total points and his target volume has been very high. He saw 13 targets in Wk 13, then just 4 the next week, but scored a TD. Finally he had another 15 targets last week in Green Bay. Over the last 5 weeks, he is averaging over 10 targets per game, so it’s clear that he’s becoming a favorite of Trubisky. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have really fixed their secondary this season and are giving up the 4^th fewest points to opposing WRs. Since Week 3, they have only given up 3 double digit performances. The Chiefs are much weaker against the run, though they’re also likely to get out to an early lead, so I do expect the Bears to continue to throw the ball, even against a tough passing D.

John Brown has had a breakout season this year (he was even our sleeper pick on the Bills during the preseason). He’s broken 1,000 yards for the second time in his career, and is easily having the best season of his career, with high marks in receptions, yardage and yards per game with 2 games still left to go. Unfortunately for him this week, he’s going to be shut down by Stefon Gilmore and the Patriots league leading pass defense. They give up the fewest points to opposing WRs by almost 3 points compared to the next team on the list. They’ve only given up 5 double digit performances all year, all of them to guys who scored TDs. They’ve allowed just 3 receiving TDs to WRs, which means that one of those performances contained a rushing TD, and the other contained a passing TD. This defense is really good.

Mike: Anthony Miller, Dave: Anthony Miller, Jason: Anthony Miller 

TE

Tyler Higbee (#5) @ SF or Austin Hooper (#6) vs JAX

Higbee has 3 straight 100 yard games over the last 3 weeks, and he’s just been tearing it up since taking over for Gerald Everett. Going in to week 13, Higbee had 884 career yards, and he’s increased that number by 37% since then. He’s already the TE14 on the season, and is the TE4 over the last 4 weeks. Higbee will be facing the 49ers defense, who give up the 2^nd fewest points to opposing TEs this season, though in weeks 13 and 14, they gave up big games to both Mark Andrews and Jared Cook.

Austin Hooper was leading all TEs in fantasy scoring when he went down with an injury and sat out Weeks 11-13. He has not produced since coming back, though he’s had 6 targets per game and probably scored a TD last week that was not ruled a TD. This week Hooper faces the Jaguars, who give up the 10^th most points to opposing TEs. Just last week they gave up a 10 catch, 122 yard performance to Darren Waller, so I expect that Hooper can get open and go back to his production that he had earlier in the year, especially since Jacksonville is likely to focus on Julio Jones.

Mike: Tyler Higbee, Dave: Tyler Higbee, Jason: Austin Hooper

O.J. Howard (#11) vs HOU or Dallas Goedert (#12) vs DAL

OJ Howard has not been a stellar TE this season, but he’s basically the default #2 target on the Bucs after their WR group has been decimated by injury, with 3 guys going down in the last 2 weeks. Howard has 19 targets in his last 3 games, and that number should just go up this week against Houston. The Texans give up the 6^th most points to opposing TEs, including double digit performances each of the last 2 weeks. I expect Howard to be used a lot and Houston will be able to focus on him since there’s not a lot of other options, however Howard is an ok spot start if you’re in a pinch.

Dallas Goedert has been a TD dependent TE on a team that also has a depleted WR group, but he’s way behind Ertz when it comes to a share of the targets. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks, though his high is only 8. Goedert is a high floor, low ceiling type player, just remember that the floor for most TEs is still pretty low. Dallas is giving up the 11^th most points to opposing TEs, and just last week got torched for 111 yards by Tyler Higbee. Dallas has given up 5 TDs to TEs this year, and Dallas will have to score a TD against Dallas to make Dallas a good start. Confused yet? Well I’m done, so good luck this week!

Mike: O.J. Howard, Dave: O.J. Howard, Jason: Dallas Goedert

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Championship week is upon us. There are several rookies who have helped us get here along the way, but few that are easy to trust this week whether due to injury or tough matchups. This week is slated to have 8 rookie QBs under center, but unless you are in a 2QB league you probably won’t be starting any of them in your championships. The rookies that matter this week are the top tier running backs and the handful of receivers that have shown to be useful weekly options. I’ll still talk a bit about the QBs and a few deeper league guys that could help in DFS this week, but I know who you’re here to see. A lot of the rookie RBs and WRs are listed as borderline options. Keep in mind that all the guys at the same position and same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s look at which rookies could help carry you across the finish line…

Rookies to Start:

RB Alexander Mattison, Min (Wk. 16: vs. GB): I’m listing Mattison here to emphasize just how much I like him if he’s somehow able to play. He still wasn’t practicing Friday, and the Vikings don’t play until Monday night. There is a real chance that you don’t have much clarity on his status until Monday. The Packers have struggled to defend opposing backs all year, coughing up the 8^th-most PPR points to the position and ranking 25^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Dalvin Cook torched them for 191 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the first meeting, and Green Bay has allowed a double-digit scorer at the position in half PPR scoring in 13 of their last 14 games. Damien Williams ended up with 9 in the other one. Mattison was considered a high value handcuff all year. This is the reason why. There has been a lot of hype this week for Mike Boone on fantasy twitter, and it’s warranted if Mattison isn’t able to play, but if Mattison does play he could win you your league. If you have other quality options that play Saturday or Sunday, I’d certainly consider starting them rather than waiting on Mattison, but if your other options are guys like Tevin Coleman or Carlos Hyde or other low-upside RB3 types, I’d move Mattison to a flex spot, pick up a Packers’ receiver as a fallback and hope he plays (assuming you weren’t able to get Boone as your fallback). Jake Kumerow should be available in most leagues. If Mattison does play, I like his chances to be a top-15 finisher at the position this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): It feels like Murray is close to turning a corner as a passer in his young career. After an up and down first half of the season, he’s posted a passer rating of 98 or better in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s also posted 12 total touchdowns in that span (10 passing, 2 rushing). The Seahawks are a slightly above average pass defense, ranking 12^th in pass defense DVOA, but this could turn into a shootout. Along with Tampa-Houston, this game is tied for the highest Vegas total of the week. Murray is a bit volatile for my tastes if I’m starting him as my QB1, but he should be a strong QB2 option this week and an interesting DFS play at a reasonable $6,100 on DraftKings.

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Atlanta has been playing improved football over the past several weeks, and to be honest I’m not quite sure how they’ve pulled it off. They’re missing their top corner Dez Trufant and have their number 2 and 3 guys battling injuries as well, and this week sent leading pass rusher Takk McKinley to IR, yet they’ve managed to go 4-2 since their bye week and have held Kyle Allen, Drew Brees and Jimmy Garoppolo to an average of just 207 passing yards in their last 3 games. I’m not sure that Minshew is the guy to break that trend. He hasn’t had quite the same magic since being re-inserted into the starting role, but he showed flashes of getting it back last week in a comeback win against Oakland. If he’s able to carry over the way he played late in that game, he should have a great chance to finish as a mid-range QB2 this week. Despite their recent improved play, the Falcons still allow the 5^th-most QB points per game for the year.

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Jones has been cleared to return this week, and he gets to face a Washington defense that can be burned by mediocre QBs. The list of QBs that have tallied 3 total touchdowns or more against Washington this year includes Mitch Trubisky, Kyle Allen, and Sam Darnold, but Jones’ Achilles heel has been turnovers and it’s one that Washington can exploit. Washington’s overall numbers aren’t terrible. They rank a middling 18^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 14^th-most QB points per game. Jones has turned the ball over 20 times in his 10 starts this year, and Washington has forced 8 QB turnovers in their last 5. There is a bit of a ceiling to chase this week with Jones, but coming off a high ankle sprain I wouldn’t expect him to augment his score much with his legs. I’d view him more as an upside QB2 than anything else this week.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): Over the last 4 weeks, Sanders has averaged almost 16 carries and just over 5 targets per game. He doesn’t always make the most of his opportunities, but he’s playing well enough to be a fantasy asset when his usage looks like that. The Eagles are going to be without Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor again, so his passing game work should be secure. The key for how big a ceiling he has will come down to how efficient he is with his rushing attempts. We’ve seen him not always show the best vision and ability to get what’s blocked. He’ll have to do a better job of that here if the Eagles hope to win. Even if he doesn’t, Sanders should be on the cusp of the RB2 range. He has a top-10 ceiling and should probably be in your lineup this week unless you have a stud to play ahead of him.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Singletary has been one of the brightest spots of the entire rookie class this year, but he gets a tough draw for championship week. He’s been held below 79 scrimmage yards just once since week 9 but must go to Foxboro to battle the Patriots’ league-best defense this week. New England has hung their hat on not letting running backs into the end zone. They’ve given up just two running back scores all year. Singletary hasn’t been putting up his points on touchdowns, so there is still a chance for him to post a nice day. If you’ve been starting him all year and have been happy with his output, you should strongly consider playing him again this week. This is unlikely to be a ceiling week for him, so he’s more of a contrarian DFS play, but the Pats have given up 90+ scrimmage yards to 6 different running backs this year. It’s probably close to a 50/50 bet that Singletary makes it 7 this week.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 16: vs. KC): David Montgomery with good on-paper matchups might be one of the most frustrating things in fantasy football this year. Even when he gets good usage and runs well, the final stat line ends up being unsatisfying. Will this week continue that trend? Kansas City allows the 3^rd-most running back PPR points per game. They’re bad against the run, ranking 30^th in run defense DVOA, and they’re bad at limiting backs as receivers, coughing up the 2^nd-most RB receiving yards per game. Monty is unlikely to take advantage of their struggles to stop pass catching backs. Even as Montgomery has rattled off a stretch of 8 consecutive games with at least 15 touches, he’s been out-targeted by Tarik Cohen 47-19. It’ll likely take a touchdown for you to be happy with Monty’s output. He’s had red zone usage with 7 carries inside the 20 in the last 5 games, but none of them have ended in 6 points. Montgomery is best viewed as a high floor, low ceiling RB3.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. NO): AJ has been a revelation since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB. He’s put up the bulk of his fantasy points with Tannehill in 3 blowup games against bad defenses, but he’s still averaged 77.5 yards per game across all of Tannehill’s 8 starts. The Saints rank a respectable 10^th in pass defense DVOA, but they allow the 8^th-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers. The Saints haven’t proven to be a matchup to run away from, and I don’t see how you sit a player that has put up 23.5 PPR points or more 3 times in his last 4 games. I can live with starting Brown this week and him flopping much more easily that I’d be able to live with benching him if he blows up again.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. Ari.): Metcalf has been remarkably steady from a fantasy perspective in the 2^nd half of the season. He’s topped at least 11 PPR points in 6 of his last 7 games and had at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of the last 6. He hasn’t really shown the kind of ceiling that we’d hope for in recent weeks, but this may be a week where he’s able to do that. Only Detroit and Oakland allow more completions for 20+ yards than the Cardinals do. Metcalf fell flat in the first meeting between these teams with just 1 catch for 6 yards, but he’s become a much bigger cog in the offense since then. With Seattle favored by 9 and a half points, there is a chance this gets out of hand early and Metcalf winds up with a poor day, but I think it’s more likely that Metcalf comes up with a deep catch or two before things are settled.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): McLaurin made it two weeks in a row with a touchdown last Sunday and posted his best yardage day of the season, and this week he faces a New York defense that has given up the 6^th-most WR PPR points per game. They also rank an abysmal 30^th in pass defense DVOA. McLaurin seems to have re-established his connection with his college QB, but Washington’s run-first attack and inconsistent QB play always lurk as threats to Scary Terry’s opportunities. The passing game should still run through McLaurin, especially the high value deep targets, but just know that his chances to bust are a little higher than your average WR2 option.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Slayton managed to salvage his fantasy day with a touchdown Sunday, but the low volume might have been alarming for those of you who started Slayton last week. The Giants were playing the Dolphins and won easily. It isn’t something that happens often for them and they were able to lean on the run game late. This game should be a bit more competitive. Prior to last week, Slayton had been targeted 38 times in the previous 4 weeks.  Some of that came with other receivers sidelined, so don’t expect Slayton to be targeted 10+ times this week, but he should be more involved than he was last Sunday. Washington isn’t a terrible pass defense. They rank 18^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13^th-fewest WR PPR points per game, but Slayton has proven to be a threat to find the end zone in every game, and he’s scored multiple TDs 3 times this year. He’s got the kind of upside you don’t want to leave on your bench if you’re between him and a lower ceiling option.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Week 15 didn’t go according to plan for Deebo. He was held to single-digit PPR points for the first time since week 9 in what looked like a plus matchup on paper. This week’s matchup looks a little less inviting. That could change if it turns out Jalen Ramsey is going to shadow Emmanuel Sanders. The Rams have deployed Ramsey in shadow coverage in spots this year, but with San Francisco being a run 1^st offense with a tight end as their leading receiver, I’d be surprised if Ramsey is deployed that way in this one. That means both receivers will see a bit of him. Samuel is still in play as an upside WR3 this week. He’s shown the ability to post solid fantasy games with limited opportunity. He may have to do so again this week.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 16: @Cle.): Brown has been a volatile weekly option for fantasy lineups, and I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger on starting him this week with the title at stake. The Browns gave up three 100-yard days to wide receivers in the first 3 weeks of the season and have allowed just one since. Brown was held mostly in check in the first meeting between these two teams with 4 catches for 22 yards on 7 targets. In the past 5 weeks Brown has had PPR scores of 21.2 and 14.5 points…and failed to reach 5 points in any of the other 3 games. The highs are fun, but the lows are low for Hollywood. This doesn’t look like a smash spot for him, so I would suggest thinking long and hard about it before putting him into your championship lineups.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Fant has played fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games, but he also topped 50 receiving yards in each, a mark he reached just twice all year before week 14. The Lions have been better against tight ends this year than their recent history, but still allow the 15^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t look for Fant to post a blowup game this week, but he’s been utilized enough by Lock that he’s in play as a low-end TE1 for a consolation game. I wouldn’t be excited about him in a championship.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): There is an outside shot that Hodges puts up a better game than expected this week since the Jets are strong against the run and may force Pittsburgh to throw more than they typically would, but we’ve seen Hodges fail to cash in against bad pass defenses a couple times now. The Cardinals are the worst QB defense in the league; The Bengals are bottom-10; The Browns are bottom-half, and Hodges didn’t reach 15 fantasy points against any of them. Sure, the Bengals’ game is tough to count since he didn’t start and instead replaced an ineffective Mason Rudolph, but I still wouldn’t want to bet on this week being the first time Hodges posts a big day.

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 16: @Den.): Since throwing his second 1^st-quarter touchdown against the Bears on Thanksgiving, Blough has posted just 5.16 yards per attempt and thrown just 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions across almost 3 full games. This week he faces a Denver defense that allows the 9^th-fewest QB points per game. A low upside option in a bad matchup is not a recipe for fantasy success.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Last week was a fun one to have Pollard in best ball leagues as Dallas unexpectedly trounced the Rams and Pollard piled up points in garbage time. Don’t treat that as a reason to start him this week. The Cowboys are unlikely to put that kind of beating on Philly, and the Eagles allow the 9^th-fewest RB points per game. Sure, there is a chance that the Cowboys decide to give Pollard a bit more work this week after his impressive performance, but chasing last week’s unexpected points is a recipe for disaster.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): It’s been nice seeing Thompson get a chance to get on the field and produce some fantasy points these past few weeks. He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he’s flashed some of the talent that made people excited about him this preseason. Still, he was only playing about a third of the offensive snaps each of the past 3 weeks with Damien Williams out, splitting time with LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware. Williams is going to return this week and push him back to the bench or at least into a smaller role. I’m out on Darwin this week.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 16: @LAC): Just listing Jacobs in case you missed the news that he’s taking the week off to rest his ailing shoulder. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard will work in his place.

RBs Benny Snell & Kerrith Whyte, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): With James Conner back on the field last week, Snell & Whyte combined to play just 8 offensive snaps. The Jets rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA and Snell still costs nearly $5,000 on DraftKings. Steer well clear of this duo.

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Harry appears to have pushed Meyers and Phillip Dorsett to the bench for now, playing 38 snaps last week while the other 2 combined for 19, but we’ve seen New England switch things up before. This isn’t a great matchup to play any New England wide receivers, even Julian Edelman who is clearly playing at less than 100% and just put up a 9-yard game last week. The Bills allow the 4^th-fewest PPR points to the position and rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard receiver all year and only 8 receivers to reach 10 fantasy points in half-PPR. This isn’t the week to try Harry or Meyers in DFS or regular lineups.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 16: @Chi.): You know the drill with Mecole by now. With the full complement of Kansas City receivers healthy, Hardman just isn’t playing a whole lot. He’s made some exciting splash plays in those limited snaps and gotten in the end zone a few times, but that’s what you’re banking on if you use Hardman in any format, and the Bears have allowed just 7 offensive plays of 40+ yards all year against them. Mecole isn’t even the most likely guy on his own team to cash in on a big play as long as Tyreek Hill is around.

WRs Kelvin Harmon & Steven Sims, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Both of these players have made some positive plays this year, but the passing volume just isn’t robust enough to consider anyone but McLaurin for fantasy lineups right now. The matchup this week is conducive to throwing the ball, but we’ve seen Haskins throw 30+ times just once in 6 starts, and the highest value targets are going to McLaurin. If I were scrounging for a deep DFS sleeper for tournaments I’d prefer Sims to Harmon as he’s been targeted 18 times in the last 2 weeks, but both have low ceilings unless they’re getting in the end zone.

WRs Hunter Renfrow & Keelan Doss, OAK (Wk. 16: @LAC): Renfrow is on track to return this week, but the injury that sidelined him was cracked ribs and a punctured lung suffered just a few weeks ago. I’d be surprised if the Raiders throw him back into a full-time role in his first game back no matter how good they claim he looks in practice. He was just a low-upside PPR WR4 most weeks before suffering the injury. His return will also render Doss unplayable. It was Doss who had picked up the extra snaps at WR in his absence. I’d stay away from both this week as the Chargers allow the 3^rd-fewest WR PPR points per game.

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. GB): With Adam Thielen back in the lineup, Bisi was limited to 26 offensive snaps and one passing game target. He’ll be irrelevant for fantasy purposes with both Diggs and Thielen on the field. No team plays fewer 3-wide sets than Minnesota.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Although he found the end zone last Sunday and this week faces a defense allowing the 9^th-most PPR points per game to tight ends, Smith is at best a touchdown dart throw this week. He’s playing plenty of snaps, but this just remains such a low volume passing attack that he isn’t getting enough opportunity to break through to fantasy relevance when he doesn’t find the end zone. It doesn’t help Smith that the team’s number 3 tight end Tyler Conklin has been playing 40+ percent of the snaps in each of the last 2 weeks as well. Irv’s cheap in DFS, but there are higher-upside tight ends to chase.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Knox has been an afterthought in the Bills’ offense for the last month, and I don’t see this as the week where that changes. In his last 4 games, the rookie has pulled in a total of 7 passes for 76 yards on 11 targets, and New England allows the 7^th-fewest TE PPR points per game.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Lock has acquitted himself pretty well since taking over as the starting QB in Denver. He struggled last week in snowy conditions in Kansas City, but he performed well against the Chargers in his debut and shredded a mediocre pass defense in Houston two weeks ago. This week he gets to face the best matchup he’s gotten so far. Detroit has allowed 5 of the last 9 teams they’ve played to throw for *at least* 320 yards and 3 touchdowns. I’m not suggesting that Lock will put up those kinds of numbers. The Broncos are a touchdown favorite and will likely lean on the run game if they get out in front, but something in the range of 15-20 fantasy points wouldn’t be surprising for Lock. He’s a sneaky QB2 this week and an intriguing cheap DFS option.

QB Will Grier, CAR (Wk. 16: @Ind.): The Will Grier era in Carolina is upon us, at least for the next two weeks. Grier was known as a gunslinger in college. He was willing to push the ball down the field and had great results at West Virginia. He averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt and threw 37 touchdowns as a senior. He had a shaky preseason where he connected on just 1 of 11 deep passes and ultimately lost the backup job to Kyle Allen, but he’s behind Allen no more. As Carolina has fallen out of the playoff picture with 6 consecutive losses, they’ve finally decided to give Grier a shot. Grier’s debut comes in a pretty good matchup for him. The Colts allow the 10^th-most QB points per game and have given up the 5^th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. They don’t give up a lot of deep balls, but this still feels like a game where Grier may connect downfield with Curtis Samuel a couple times. Grier costs barely more than the QB minimum on DraftKings, and Indy has coughed up 762 passing yards and 8 touchdown tosses in the last two weeks. There are worse options out there if you want to take a crazy swing in a DFS tournament.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Haskins had his best yardage game as a pro last weekend and gets a favorable matchup this weekend as well. The Giants allow the 8^th-most QB points per game and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. The Giants are much better against the run, ranking 8^th in run defense DVOA, so the burden to make plays will likely fall on Haskins. It remains to be seen which team will be more motivated to win this game. The winning team will get rivalry bragging rights, but the losing team will likely get to draft Chase Young. I don’t know that I expect Haskins to do enough to be trusted in lineups, but 200+ yards and 2 scores isn’t out of the question this week, and he’s only hit those marks twice in 6 starts.

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been a defense to target with your running backs all year, and that will hold true even in this toilet bowl of a matchup. The question of which running back to target them with this week got a little more muddled with Gaskin playing the same number of offensive snaps as Laird in week 15, but I think both have a chance to return nice value. Cincinnati ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and coughs up the 6^th-most RB PPR points per game. Neither player would be trustworthy in your league championship, but in deep leagues and DFS tournaments both are worth looking at. I’d still prefer Laird over Gaskin. He got the start and played most of the first two drives on Sunday, but Gaskin will be involved moving forward as well. Even as the playing time evened up, Laird still handled 3 more carries and 2 more targets than Gaskin.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): Johnson becomes much harder to trust if JuJu Smith-Schuster returns this week, but he’s carved out a nice role for himself with JuJu sidelined and Duck Hodges under center. Diontae has been targeted 15 times in the last 2 weeks and turned in 11-122-1 with at least 60 yards in each game. The Jets have proven to be a strong run defense and bad pass defense, which plays into Johnson’s hands a bit. They allow the 10^th-most WR PPR points per game despite playing a pretty easy WR schedule. The only top-14 WRs (in total PPR points) they’ve faced all year are Julian Edelman and Amari Cooper, and Cooper got hurt very early on in their meeting. Disregard Johnson if JuJu suits up, but if not, he’s got interesting upside for deep leagues.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): I know, talking about using JJ in any format feels like a joke at this point, and a bad one if you have him in any dynasty leagues. I don’t know if there is such a thing as a contrarian flyer in DFS, but that’s what I would call JJ this week. He costs just $3,500 in DraftKings and he’s been playing more than 90% of Philly’s offensive snaps with Alshon and Agholor out. He only has 6 targets and 2 catches to show for it in the last two weeks, but he also has 4 red zone targets in the last 5 games. It’s almost purely a gut call, but I have a feeling that Arcega-Whiteside cashes in his opportunities this week and posts a surprising 2 touchdown game. The Cowboys rank just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Smith became a bit of a forgotten man in the past 2 weeks as Eli Manning filled in at quarterback. That could change this week with Daniel Jones back at the helm. With Jones under center Smith was targeted 14 times in weeks 12 & 13, tallying 11-87-1. With Eli in he was targeted just 8 times in the last 2 games and ended up with just 5 catches for 47 yards. There is some threat that Rhett Ellison returns this week, but Smith seemed to have a connection with Jones, and Washington allows the 5^th-most TE PPR points per game. It would be a big leap of faith to use Smith in the fantasy championship with Ellison looming, but I could see my way to using him in DFS lineups.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most folks, the fantasy season ended last week, but I know there are leagues out there that still hold their title games in week 17. Week 17 is a tough one to navigate for fantasy lineups. There are typically only a handful teams with anything to gain by winning. The keys to success are to identify those teams and identify the stud players who play for teams that have nothing to gain. If you can avoid those landmines you’ll have a much better shot of winning. I count 12 teams that potentially could improve their playoff position, and only half of those don’t need any help from other teams to do so. I’ll give you a quick rundown of which rookies have something to play for in case you have a championship this week, but most of the advice this week will have a decidedly DFS slant.  Let’s dive in…

Rookies to Start:

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): The Eagles are expecting Jordan Howard to return this week, but Sanders is likely to continue as the lead back. As the Eagles’ pass catching corps has become the walking wounded, Sanders has seen his receiving usage increase. In the past 4 weeks, he’s had at least 4 catches and 5 targets in each game, and he’s found the end zone through the air in 2 of them. Even if Howard manages to siphon off a decent chunk of Sanders’ rushing attempts, the passing game usage will keep Miles as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. The Giants surprisingly rank 8^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and Sanders is no worse than 3^rd in the Eagles’ current pass game pecking order. You’re banking on the upside if you use him in DFS lineups (I like him better for cash games than tournaments), but he should be fired up in season-long leagues.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 17: @Hou.): Brown’s lack of usage last week was a little alarming, but he still managed to put up 15.3 PPR points despite just one catch and one carry. He absolutely torched the Texans the last time he faced them (8-114-1 on 13 targets), and this week the Texans might not have anything to gain by winning. The Titans have everything to gain. A victory clinches them a spot in the playoffs. Brown should be heavily involved and can’t be left on your bench in season long leagues. The Texans rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be as keen to pay the $7,000 DraftKings price tag, but he should be a fine WR2 this week.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. SF): Metcalf managed to post a goose egg on just 1 target last week despite playing 98% of the offensive snaps in a game where Seattle threw 31 times. Don’t expect a repeat this week. Prior to week 16, DK had managed to post 11+ PPR points in 6 of the previous 7 games, and I like his odds to get back on track this week. Since the start of week 9, the 49ers have allowed 22.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (only the Dolphins and Cardinals have allowed more than that per game on the year), and they’ve given up 15+ points in half PPR scoring to 4 wide receivers in the past 5 weeks (they allowed just 3 to reach 15 before that). Their elite defense has shown cracks, and I think Metcalf exploits them this weekend. He posted 6 catches for 70 yards on 10 targets in the first meeting with San Francisco, and he should be a solid WR3 in the rematch. Metcalf is a sneaky option in DFS showdown slates for the Sunday night game.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): This will be a must win game for the Eagles, but their pass defense has been an issue for much of the year. Philly has coughed up multiple passing scores in 3 of their last 4 games, and Jones flourished in his return to the lineup last Sunday as the overall QB1 for the week. Jones has thrown for multiple TDs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and 4+ in three of his last 6. Jones has been a solid starting option when his weapons are healthy and he has a real chance to be a QB1 again this week, although repeating as the QB1 seems highly unlikely.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders still have a shot at the playoffs with a win and a lot of help this weekend, but the Broncos have some positive momentum of their own and aren’t likely to roll over for Oakland. The Raiders have been abysmal defending the pass, allowing the 4^th-most QB points per game and allowing the 2^nd-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. Lock has played well through 4 starts outside of one poor performance against the Chiefs, and he is in a great spot for a strong game to close his rookie year. Lamar Jackson won’t play this week, and several other fantasy QBs like Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins will be unplayable due to the chance they won’t play for long. Lock will be a high-end QB2 option with the upside for more and is reasonably priced on DraftKings at $5,800.

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Leonard Fournette has been downgraded to doubtful for this week, and Armstead has been his handcuff all year. The Colts rank 21^st in run defense DVOA and Jacksonville is one of the few teams that doesn’t employ a committee. It’s a rare occurrence that you can get a locked-in starting running back for $4,400 on DraftKings. Armstead has shown an ability to catch the ball, so he won’t be limited to just rushing output. The Jaguars have been bad as a team of late, but Armstead has plenty of appeal in DFS lineups at that price tag.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): With the Ravens locked into the AFC’s top seed, they have nothing to gain with a win in week 17. Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram will be sitting out entirely, and I would expect several other starters to not play the full game. The Steelers will be without James Conner again, so Snell will be thrust back into the early down grinder role once more. Baltimore has been stingy against the pass but ranks a middling 17^th in run defense DVOA. Snell’s lack of pass catching prowess hurts his fantasy upside, but he should be viewed as a reasonable RB3/flex play this week. He also costs just $4,500 on DraftKings.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Slayton was targeted just 3 times in week 15 against the Dolphins, then was sidelined by injury last week before recording his first catch in a game where Daniel Jones threw 5 touchdown passes. Slayton is on track to return this week and the Giants don’t really have reason to hold him back as they try to play spoiler to the Eagles. Philly has allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game, and Slayton may be the squeaky wheel that gets the grease this week. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure that he plays and that he won’t be limited by the knee injury, but Slayton remains in play as a WR3 option this week. His price tag of $4,900 on DraftKings is really tempting in both cash games and DFS tournaments.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 17: @Sea.): The 49ers will be pulling out all of the stops to try and win this game. A victory means a week off, and a loss means a trip to Dallas or Philadelphia next weekend. The Seahawks are better attacked on the ground than through the air, ranking 26^th in run defense DVOA and 14^th in pass defense DVOA. Samuel has been productive with 6 games of 12 or more PPR points in his last 7, but his volume has been inconsistent. He’s averaged just 4.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks. He’s managed to be productive with sporadic rushing attempts (7-89-1 in the past 4 weeks), but he’ll have to continue making good on limited opportunities to have a big day this week. He’s in play as a borderline WR3 option.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Johnson has managed to produce despite the game of musical quarterbacks being played between Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, He’s put up at least 60 yards and been targeted 7+ times in each of the last 3 games, and the Ravens are likely to play their starters less than a full complement of snaps. Even JuJu’s return hasn’t slowed Johnson down. He’ll have Hodges throwing him the ball this week, but that shouldn’t keep him from posting a 4-60 type of line in this one, and possibly more.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders allow the 8^th-most TE points per game. Fant’s snap count has dropped quite a bit with Jeff Heuerman back at full strength, but Fant has been the one getting the more useful fantasy targets. He’s still risky for regular lineups, but he’s an interesting in DFS lineups at just $3,600 on DraftKings and in a plus matchup.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 17: @LAR): It’s looking more and more likely that Murray is going to be sidelined this week with a hamstring injury and it will be Brett Hundley getting the nod instead. Even if Murray plays, the first meeting with the Rams was one of his worst games of the season and they rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Only a late rushing TD got him to double-digit fantasy points in that first meeting. Hundley wouldn’t be a great option this week either.

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Minshew has had a number of plus matchups since getting back under center, but he’s failed to produce meaningful fantasy games. In the last 4 weeks he’s averaged 173 yards passing and 15.5 rushing yards per game and totaled just 5 touchdowns. The Jags are basically phoning it in to close out the year, and you can’t bank on them getting out of that funk in the season’s final week. This game is likely to feature a lot of Ryquell Armstead and Marlon Mack.

QB Will Grier, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. NO): Grier’s first NFL start was an unmitigated disaster against a below average pass defense. The offense managed to score just 6 points as Grier threw 3 interceptions and took 5 sacks. More than 50% of his passing yards went to Christian McCaffrey and he’s not going to have DJ Moore on the field this week. The Saints rank 13^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s all shaping up to be another rough week for Grier.

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Don’t get cute with Hodges. In his last 2 appearances he’s thrown 1 touchdown against 6 interceptions. The Ravens’ secondary might not be playing at full strength, but that’s not a reason to get crazy and consider Hodges in any format.

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): It’s likely you weren’t considering Blough in any format, and that is the correct approach. Blough has thrown just 2 touchdowns in the last 3 and a half games, and Green Bay ranks 11^th in pass defense DVOA. There is no reason to consider Blough in week 17. It may wind up as his final career start.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): We’ve seen Monty come up small in big opportunities, and this week he faces a tough matchup. The Vikings rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. Montgomery has just been too consistently mediocre from a fantasy perspective to use him this week unless you’re desperate. Monty’s best hope is that Minnesota goes to their backup defense early on and he gets in the end zone. I’m not willing to count on that even at a price tag of just $5,100 on DraftKings.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): The Bills have absolutely nothing to gain from winning this weekend. They’re locked into the 5^th seed in the AFC playoffs. They have no incentive to put a critical player like Singletary in harm’s way. If he does get the start, I would be stunned if he plays into the second half. Josh Allen is also likely to have a short day if he plays at all. TJ Yeldon is the running back I’d expect to have the best fantasy day for Buffalo. His ability as a pass catcher gives him the edge over Frank Gore, especially with the Jets being stout against the run. New York ranks second in run defense DVOA.

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 17: @NE): The Patriots actually care about winning this game, and they’ve allowed the fewest RB PPR points per game. Laird and Gaskin have played a much more even split of the backfield snaps in the last two weeks, making both untrustworthy for fantasy purposes. If I had to pick one it would be Laird, but both are bad fantasy plays this week.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): With the 6^th seed already etched in stone for Minnesota, I’d expect Mike Boone and CJ Ham to handle most of the running back duties against Chicago. Mattison and Dalvin Cook might both end up inactive again. Even if they don’t, I wouldn’t expect either one to see a carry in the 2^nd half. The Bears will be playing for pride and for a .500 season, and despite their struggles still have one of the better defenses in the league. Boone is the option I’d look at if considering a cheap DFS play in this backfield.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Brown has a questionable tag this week, and I can’t imagine he plays more than a few series even if he is active. The Ravens have nothing to gain by winning, so there shouldn’t be a lot of Brown, Mark Andrews or Willie Snead. There certainly won’t be enough of Brown to trust in fantasy lineups. Keep him sidelined.

WR N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): I’d like Meyers quite a bit this week if the Pats had already clinched a bye in the first round, but they haven’t. The Patriots need to win this week to secure the bye, and it’s been a guessing game in recent weeks as to which receivers will get the playing time. Julian Edelman is the only receiver on the team who has played 60% of the snaps or more 3 times in the last 4 games. Sanu seems to be back to a full-time role, but it always feels like that could change at a moment’s notice. The Dolphins are a great matchup for any offense to face, but there isn’t a lot of evidence pointing to Harry or Meyers being a good option this week.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): I put my faith in JJ last week, and after posting 2-39 on the game’s opening drive he wasn’t targeted again. You’d think at some point the Eagles will have to start utilizing him more as the depth chart thins out, especially in a must-win game like this one. Zach Ertz has been ruled out for this game, so it’ll be Greg Ward, Dallas Goedert and the running backs aside from JJAW. The Giants are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so there is upside in JJ at his meager $3,700 price tag on DraftKings, but I’ve been intrigued by him before and been burned. He’s not a player I’ll be taking a flyer on this week.

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Terry McLaurin may have been ruled out for this week already, but that won’t change the fact that Harmon is mainly a low-upside PPR option who just posted his best career game at 10.8 PPR points. Don’t buy in to upside for Harmon that just isn’t there for him right now. Dallas allows the 6^th-fewest WR PPR points per game. You should probably avoid Harmon this week.

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): Johnson is likely to play a lot this week, but we’ve seen him do that with Thielen out and he only mustered sporadic production. The Bears allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Johnson hasn’t reached 50 yards in any game all season. Don’t think of him as an upside DFS option just because he’s cheap and Diggs & Thielen are unlikely to play much.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Smith bounced back in a big way last weekend with 2 touchdowns against Washington, but he is unlikely to have a strong follow up. The Eagles have allowed just 3 tight ends to reach 9 PPR points all season long, and just one since week 4. Philly has struggled to contain wide receivers but has been one of the best teams in the league at stopping the tight end position. I’d look elsewhere for upside DFS tight ends this week.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Knox could get a boost from any extended Matt Barkley playing time. He caught 2 passes for 37 yards among Barkley’s 16 pass attempts in week 4. He costs just $2,700 on DraftKings, but the Jets allow the 4^th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. There are higher upside options to chase.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): With Mark Ingram sitting out, it’ll be Gus Edwards and Hill handling most of the rushing attempts. This should be the first real extended look we get at Hill all year. Hill posted 51 yards and a touchdown on 6 touches last week and should see his way to double-digit touches in this one. The Steelers boast a solid defense, but Hill’s speed makes him a home run threat at just about any time. He’s an inexpensive $4,600 on DraftKings. I’d only be thinking of him as an upside DFS tournament play.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 17: vs. Was.): Pollard has been a non-factor in most games where the Cowboys are trailing or playing close, but they’re a 12-point favorite this week against a Washington defense that allows the 3^rd-most RB PPR points per game. This is a prime spot for Pollard to have a big game and he costs just $4,000 on DraftKings. There’s a low floor, as evidenced by his negative point performance last week, but he’s a very interesting DFS Tournament play.

WR Steven Sims, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): The matchup isn’t ideal, as I laid out with Kelvin Harmon above, but Sims has been heavily involved with 21 targets and 3 touchdowns in the last 2 weeks, and his DFS price hasn’t caught up with his production yet. With McLaurin out he should see close to double-digit targets again, and he’s a small, speedy receiver who should see a couple deep targets from Case Keenum. He’s not exactly a safe play, but he has a great chance to outproduce his $4,700 price tag on DraftKings.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Like Justice Hill, Boykin should get a chance to shine as the guys ahead of him on the depth chart get a light week to keep them healthy for the playoffs. Boykin has turned 3 of his 13 catches on the year into touchdowns, and he costs just the minimum on DraftKings. He’s a TD dart throw for DFS tournaments with the upside to be more. With the Steelers favored by a couple points, the Ravens may throw a little more than they typically do.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): The majority of the practice snaps this week for Minnesota tight ends have gone to backups Smith and Tyler Conklin. I’d be surprised if Kyle Rudolph doesn’t play a diminished role with nothing at stake for the Vikings, and the Bears allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. Smith costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and may very well lead the Vikings in receiving this week. He’s a worthwhile option in DFS tournaments.

That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.