Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

0 Punts

On Thursday night’s game, the Minnesota Vikings managed to not have to punt the ball for the first time in 15 years. Despite that amazing offensive feat, they put up a meager 19 points on offense. The Vikings had two 70+ yard drives that resulted in short field goals in a thoroughly underwhelming performance against perhaps the biggest dumpster fire of a team in the league (though the Bengals may have something to say about that). The Washington Redskins were led in fantasy by Adrian Peterson (10.3 whole points) in his, uh, revenge game? There were lots of “revenge” storylines in this game, with Kirk Cousins and probably Case Keenum too. None of them really lived to up to the pregame hype, considering it was maybe the worst Thursday night game all year. Heck, at least the Titans and Jaguars annual Thursday night suckfest featured Gardner Minshew.

45% Average Ownership

This may be the most chaotic week at the tight end position so far this year, and on “National Tight End Day”, of course. On average, the top 10 TEs were owned in only 45% of Yahoo leagues. For a snapshot example, only 4 of the top 10 TEs were owned in the drinkfive fantasy league. From week to week, we wind up seeing random players like Ryan Griffin (0% owned) leading the week in points. He had 20.6, courtesy of 2 TDs, 66 yards and a 2-pointer to top it off. Behind him were Darren Fells (18%) and Jonnu Smith (19%) which rounded out the top 3 TEs on the week. It’s surprising to me that Darren Fells is still in this group, as he’s now the TE6 on the season with 54.4 points, outscoring both George Kittle and Zach Ertz, who were early-to-mid round draft picks. Perhaps most surprising to me is that Travis Kelce, the TE2 overall on the season, put up just his second double-digit performance on Sunday night, scoring his 2^nd TD of the season and putting up the 5^th best performance by a TE this week. This position is all messed up from a fantasy aspect, so don’t expect any worthwhile insights from anyone, anywhere. Other than starting Austin Hooper, of course.

21 (more) Fantasy Points

The New England Patriots D/ST continued their amazing pace this week, scoring another 21 points against the turnover prone Cleveland Browns. How prone are they? Well, the Browns turned the ball over on 3 straight offensive snaps in the first quarter.  This is the 5^th time this season that the Pats D/ST has scored 21+ points out of 8 games. Their low mark was 10 points in Week 1. They have a total of 173 points on the year, which is blowing the 2^nd place 49ers out of the water by 71 points and more than double that of the D/ST3 Panthers, who sit at 75 points total on the year. Among all fantasy players, the Patriots D/ST would now be the 4^th highest scoring “player” in all of fantasy football. Can we nominate an entire unit for MVP? They’re definitely the fantasy MVP this season. Through half a season, the Pats now have more points on D/ST than all teams last season except for the Bears, who finished 2018 with a paltry 187 points. And we thought that they were impressive.

3 of the Top 10 WRs

Unknown tight ends were not the only group having fun on Sunday. We also saw 3 WRs make it into the top 10 of WR points who are owned in very few leagues. Darius Slayton (4% owned) caught a pair of TDs from fellow rookie Daniel Jones to put up a 17-point performance and clocked in as the WR5 on the week. Right behind him was Chris Conley (3%) who caught 5 passes on 7 targets for 103 yards and a score. Conley now has 15 targets in the last 2 games and double-digits in each performance. Check him out this week for waiver wire adds, as he’s definitely available in your league. Rounding out the top 10 WRs was Hunter Renfrow (1%) who scored his first TD on a 65-yard catch and run early in the game in Houston. Honorable mentions go to Josh Reynolds, WR13 and Marvin Hall, WR17, who are both owned in 0% of Yahoo leagues. These rounding errors both found the end zone and put up double-digit points while helping their teams to victory in Week 8.

28.18 Fantasy Points

This week’s leading QB was not a guy named Watson, Rodgers, Brees or even Wilson. No sir, it was the plain and boring QB for big blue, Daniel Jones. Jones had an impressive day - 322 passing yards with 4 TDs and no interceptions. This performance was just enough to land him on the top of the QB list for Week 8, and I don’t think it’s a reach to say that nobody in the Monday night game will pass him. If it wasn’t for the fumble he gave up that was returned for a TD, he might have even been able to win his third game of the season. At this point, it’s pretty clear that the Giants have found their successor to Eli Manning. Elsewhere, we see that many of the top 10 QBs this week are still a bit random. We saw a favorite of this column, Gardner Minshew, put up his second straight 20+ point performance, showing he’s back on track after a tough Week 6 against New Orleans. Derek Carr had a great game on the road, his best of the season in fact. Honorable mentions go to Matt Schaub and Matt Moore, both impressing in relief of their starters. This was only statistically impressive, however, as both guys lost.

Last week was a good week for the picks. Heading into Monday night, I was a perfect 14/14 relying on the Steelers to win at home vs the winless Dolphins to capture my 14 point pick and survive another week in the big pool. Never in my life had I picked every game correctly in a week and was quite nervous. I even texted friends early in the first quarter when Miami jumped out to an early lead to tell them I was kicking myself for not switching the pick to Miami before kickoff. (Seriously considered it, no way the football gods could let me be perfect.)

 Ahh but alas, the Dolphins have no intentions of winning a game and ran a boneheaded defense at the end of the half allowing the Steelers to score a long TD and bring the game to within 4 points. The Dolphins were to never score again and Pitt got the easy victory.

This week’s schedule has been the toughest for me to make a pick. Halfway through the season and I have used up many of the stronger teams with good matchups. That left me with 2 options pick the Packers in Carson,CA against the Chargers or the 49ers in Arizona on Thursday night. I opted to go with the latter.

The 49ers are the biggest favorite of the week and have looked unstoppable on defense. Add to that facing a first time NFL coach and rookie QB, it should be a no brainer. Right? Well anyways Thursday night games always seem to burn me, so I will be watching this one with my fingers crossed and a bottle by my side to ease the nerves.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 8 brought us the coming-out party for David Montgomery, touchdowns for Miles Sanders & Devin Singletary, multiple touchdowns for DK Metcalf and Darius Slayton, and another sparkling Gardner Minshew performance. Week 9 has already brought us the benching of Andy Dalton for rookie Ryan Finley and the games haven’t even started yet. Finley may be worth a speculative add in 2QB leagues despite the Bengals being on a bye in week 9. I expect him to be more of a game manager type in the same vein as Dalton, but he will have some weapons to work with. Dalton was the QB18 on the year and hasn’t had AJ Green on the field for a single snap. Green is expected to return after the bye. We’re approaching the home stretch of the fantasy regular season and hitting some of the biggest bye weeks of the year. Hopefully, you’ve got the depth to withstand the byes, but if not, there are certainly some rookies who might help you survive. Let’s dive into the week 9 outlook.

Rookies to Start:

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): Jacobs had his lowest rushing yardage total since Week 3 and failed to find the end zone last Sunday, but he still posted a passable week with 10.1 PPR points. It’s certainly not the kind of output you hope for from him, but if he’s going to finish as the RB28 when he has a bad game, I’d be more than comfortable firing him up as an RB2 every week. Jacobs gets a favorable matchup against the Lions this week. Detroit has allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game on the year and ranks 19^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat which measures defensive efficiency. They’ve given up a league-worst 62 receiving yards per game to opposing backs, and while Jacobs hasn’t been Oakland’s primary receiving back, he does have multiple catches in 3 straight games. Jacobs should be in your lineups if you have him.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Now that Metcalf has finally broken through and had his first top-24 week of the season, he gets a chance to duplicate the feat in about the best possible matchup. The Bucs are what we call a pass funnel defense. They rank 1^st in the league in run defense DVOA, but 26^th in pass defense DVOA. Seattle will undoubtedly be looking to establish the run in a game where they’re a touchdown favorite, but this secondary is too porous to not go after. The Bucs allow the 5^th-most WR points per game and have given up 9 receiving TDs to opposing receivers through 7 games. Metcalf has been Russ’s favorite weapon in close with 11 red zone targets. I like his chances at 50+ yards and a score this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou. (London)): Gardner Minshew continues to make it harder for the Jaguars to go back to Nick Foles whenever he is ready to return. Minshew posted his best fantasy game of the year last week, finishing as the QB5, and gets another favorable matchup in London Sunday morning. Gardner had a passable fantasy day when these teams met in week 2, finishing as the QB15, but the Texans’ pass defense has been trending in the wrong direction since then, and they lost JJ Watt for the year. They’ve given up at least 270 passing yards and 3 TDs through the air in 4 straight games, a stretch that included matchups with Jacoby Brissett and Derek Carr. I wouldn’t just assume Minshew will match that kind of day, but he’s more of a borderline QB1 this week than just the usual solid QB2 play that he typically is. The Texans allow the 6^th-most QB points per game and rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA.

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Dal.): With Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees all on byes this week, and Brandon Allen and Dwayne Haskins likely to make starts, Jones has to at least be in consideration as a QB2. He posted his best passing day of the year in Detroit last week and finished as the QB1 for the week. The matchup this week is much tougher with Dallas coming to town. The Cowboys have allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game, but they have been notably worse on the road, allowing 16+ points to Case Keenum and Sam Darnold in 2 of their 3 road games this year. That’s obviously a small sample and hard to bank on, but Jones is starting to make some strides as his offensive weapons get healthy, and I like his chances of finishing this week as a mid-range QB2 or better. Dallas ranks just a middling 17^th in pass defense DVOA.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): Sanders has been doing an incredible job of making the most of a less than ideal situation. He’s had to deal with being used as a second fiddle to Jordan Howard in the running game, but in the last 3 weeks, he’s turned 21 touches into 242 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 RB9 finishes. Those top-10 weeks were sandwiched around an RB36 finish in week 7. It appears that the Eagles are figuring out how to best deploy Sanders to maximize his game-breaking ability, but the lack of consistent touches is going to give him a low floor in weeks where he doesn’t cash in a big play. The matchup with the Bears this week is actually better than you might think. Chicago is allowing the 8^th-most running back points per game, and they’ve struggled to slow down pass-catching backs. They’ve allowed the 4^th-most receptions and 6^th-most receiving yards per game to the position. The volume is suspect, but this is a decent spot to use Sanders in your flex and hope his strong performances continue.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 9: @Phi.): The difference in Montgomery’s output in week 7 and his output in week 8 is staggering. It really makes you wonder what Matt Nagy was thinking against New Orleans when he only ran Monty 3 times. The ISU product was a revelation in week 8, piling up over 130 rushing yards and a touchdown against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. In week 9 he’ll face one of the best. The Bears would be wise to continue to feed him the ball given how poorly Mitch Trubisky has played, but success has been hard to come by for running backs against the Eagles. Philly has allowed 5 backs all year to finish as the PPR RB17 or better (only 1 higher than RB15), and every single one of them tallied more than 9 and a half points as a receiver. Monty’s best receiving output of the year was the 5.2 PPR points he put up last Sunday (4 catches for 12 yards). The Eagles rank 6^th in run defense DVOA. Volume alone should keep Monty in consideration this week as an RB2/flex option, but this could be another one of those weeks where you’re cursing his name afterward.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): The final numbers from week 8 are extremely promising for Singletary. He found the end zone for the second time this year and finished as the PPR RB17 despite handling just 7 touches, and more importantly played 68% of the Bills’ offensive snaps while Frank Gore handled just 29%. I’d like to take a moment to tell people with Singletary on their rosters not to get ahead of themselves just yet. Singletary saw just one offensive touch before the Eagles had opened up a two-score lead in the early second half. Frank Gore is still going to be the lead back in this offense when the Bills play from ahead, and they should do that this week as a 9.5-point favorite against Washington. There should still be a good amount of work for Singletary in a pretty favorable matchup, but don’t expect him to play two-thirds of the snaps again this week unless the Bills are playing from behind. Washington allows the 10^th-most RB points per game and ranks 18^th in run defense DVOA. Singletary is an upside flex play this week.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Brown is expected to return this week, and the Ravens have had the bye week to try and come up with a plan to attack the Patriots’ defense. The Pats have been performing at a historic level, but the Ravens’ offense is something different than what they’ve faced this year. Hollywood’s production had dipped a bit prior to his hamstring injury, as he totaled just 9-93-1 on 21 targets in the previous 3 games he’s played, but I’d look for the Ravens to try and get him involved early in this one. New England allows the fewest WR points per game, so this is a dicey spot to get Brown back in your lineups, but he’s an intriguing contrarian play in DFS lineups at just $4,800 on DraftKings. You also are going to be hard pressed to find a player with more upside than Brown if you need a bye week fill-in this week in deeper leagues.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (WK. 9: vs. Ind.): With Mason Rudolph at QB, Johnson has ascended to the clear WR2 in the Pittsburgh offense. He’s got almost as many targets from Rudolph as JuJu does, and in the 3 games that Rudolph has started and finished, Johnson has totaled 14-211-3 on 19 targets. The Colts have been worse against the run than the pass, but they’ve been no more than a middling defense against wide receivers. With both James Conner and Benny Snell unlikely to play, the Steelers may be throwing a bit more than usual in this one. Johnson should be right on the cusp of being a WR3 option this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. SF): Murray is coming off his two worst fantasy games of the season, and this week runs into an absolute buzzsaw on a short week. The 49ers defense has been playing at an insane level of late. Since their week 4 bye, they haven’t allowed a single passing touchdown or QB rushing yard and have limited their last 4 opponents to 412 passing yards total. It’s true they haven’t faced a real running QB yet this season, so Murray could test them in some ways they haven’t been tested yet, but there’s no way I would trust Murray in fantasy lineups this week.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 9: @Buf.): It looks as though Haskins is likely to make his first career start this week if Case Keenum can’t get out of the concussion protocol, but this is a brutal spot to get an opportunity. The Bills allow the 5^th-fewest QB points per game and haven’t allowed any passer to throw for multiple touchdowns against them yet. Nothing we’ve seen from Haskins suggests he’ll be the first guy to do it. Washington looked afraid to throw the football in the second half last Thursday with Haskins in, as he attempted just 5 passes in the second half despite the team trailing for the entire half. I’d be surprised if Haskins throws the ball more than 20 times, and even more surprised if he does anything productive with those throws.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 9: @KC): Mattison did what I expected him to do last week and thrived in a game the Vikings won easily. Earlier this year you would not have pegged this game at Arrowhead as one the Vikings were likely to win easily, but with Matt Moore at QB it’s a very real possibility. The Chiefs have struggled against opposing backs, allowing the 4^th-most fantasy points per game to the position and ranking 30^th in run defense DVOA. All of this adds up to Mattison having some sleeper appeal, but I would struggle to pull the trigger on that this week. The Chiefs have played better than I would’ve expected with Moore at QB, and Mattison needs the team to be up comfortably to get significant touches. With a price tag of $5,000 on DraftKings, he’s a little too expensive to be a sneaky option in GPP tournaments for me.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Snell exited Monday night’s game with a knee injury and seems to be at best very questionable for Sunday’s tilt with the Colts. James Conner was hurt as well, but early reports make it sound like Conner has a better chance of suiting up this week than Snell. The guy who should pick up the slack is Jaylen Samuels, who will serve as the lead back if Conner is unable to go. There is some upside here with the Colts ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA, so Snell has some minor sleeper appeal if he plays and Conner doesn’t, but he would still be the change of pace back to Samuels in that case. He’s probably best left on the bench this week even if he does play.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Some of you might not have the luxury of being able to sit McLaurin and as Washington’s WR1 there is still at least a little upside here, but I list him in the ‘Rookies to Sit’ section to drive home just how unfavorable this spot is for him. If Haskins starts it’ll be hard to justify starting McLaurin. The Bills allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game and the total passing volume for Washington would be limited. The Bills haven’t allowed a receiver touchdown this season and have only allowed 3 receivers all year to average 15 yards per catch or more: Josh Gordon (3-46), Allen Hurns (3-53) and Alshon Jeffery (4-64). If McLaurin has a limited number of targets, it’s going to be hard to put up big yards or TDs in this one. If Keenum plays, McLaurin becomes more of a low-ceiling borderline play, but this could be a tough week for the F1.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 9: @Car.): Ryan Tannehill reminded us last week that he’s still Ryan Tannehill and made any of us who believed in the offensive resurgence the Titans showed in week 7 look like fools. Brown salvaged his fantasy day with a touchdown, but 3 targets isn’t the kind of volume that fantasy winners thrive on. The Panthers have been a better pass defense than you might realize, ranking 3^rd in the league in pass defense DVOA. Look for the Titans to focus on the ground game for much of this one, making Brown more of a TD dart throw again this week.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 9: @Ari.): The 49ers have been scheming the ball into Deebo’s hands, which is exciting to see, but this offense isn’t high-volume enough to have 3 fantasy-viable pass catchers, and the top 2 look to clearly be George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders. Samuel will have weeks where finds the end zone and/or has nice production, but this is unlikely to be one of those weeks with the Niners favored by double-digits. It should be a lot of Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and even some Raheem Mostert this week.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Hardman managed to produce a long touchdown on Sunday night, but he did so on just 2 targets while splitting WR3 snaps with Demarcus Robinson due to the return of Sammy Watkins. With Matt Moore under center that is about the best performance you can expect from Hardman. He’ll be a TD dart throw once again this week. The Vikings have allowed just 2 pass plays of 40+ yards all year, and if I had to bet on a Chief to put up a 3^rd one it would be Tyreek Hill. There are likely safer options available this week than Hardman.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): This isn’t the worst spot to hope for Renfrow to build on what he did last week, but almost all of his production came on one long play that isn’t likely to be repeated this week. The Lions have struggled with slot receivers, but most of the guys they have had those issues with have been much more proven than Renfrow (Golden Tate, Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald). That one TD accounted for more than 30% of Renfrow’s PPR points for the season. Outside of that play he has just 17 catches for 138 yards in 7 games. Don’t chase a repeat performance that isn’t coming.

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 9: @ KC): All signs point to Adam Thielen returning to the lineup Sunday, so Bisi Johnson should return to your league’s waiver wire. There won’t be a ton of opportunity for him in the pass game with Diggs and Thielen on the field, and this week’s opponent allows the 7^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 9: @Bal.): As expected, the Mohamed Sanu trade has impacted Meyers’ playing time. He saw the field for just 25 offensive snaps last week, the fewest he’s played since week 4, and was targeted just twice. I would expect that number to go down further as Sanu gets more acclimated to the offense. The Ravens haven’t been a pass defense to fear, but they’re getting healthier and Meyers isn’t likely to have a useful fantasy day on just a couple targets.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Boykin posted his best yardage game of the year headed into the bye in week 7 (55 yards against Seattle), but he still hasn’t seen more than 3 targets or 2 catches in any game this season, and the Ravens didn’t have Marquise Brown for 2 of them. He continues to be a complementary player that isn’t getting enough usage to be trusted in fantasy lineups.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Campbell returned from his abdominal injury last weekend, but he’s got more work to do to get back into the receiver rotation in Indy. He played just 8 snaps in week 8 and was targeted only once. The Steelers have long been a team to target with slot receivers, but I would need to see Campbell be more involved in the offense before using him in any format.

WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. SF): There isn’t a whole lot to say about this duo. With Christian Kirk back this week, Johnson was a healthy scratch and Isabella played just one offensive snap. I’d love to see Isabella to get a chance at some extended run in this offense before the year is out, but there’s no way to be sure that happens at this point.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 9: @KC): Smith has seen his snap percentage grow for 4 consecutive weeks and has multiple targets in each of the past 3 games, but his role just isn’t big enough to count on him in fantasy yet. The Chiefs are a decent defense against tight ends. Darren Fells is the only tight end to reach 40 yards against them since week 3, and they have given up just one touchdown to the position all year. Smith should be glued to your bench if you have him anywhere.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (WK. 9: vs. Cle.): Fant set new season highs last week with 8 targets and 5 catches, but he still finished with just 26 yards and was the PPR TE15. This outing still should have been reason for optimism with Fant’s role growing with Emmanuel Sanders gone, but that optimism is dashed by the new man under center. While we may not like Joe Flacco to be the QB for our fantasy players, I don’t believe Brandon Allen will prove to be an upgrade. Allen has never thrown a pass in an NFL regular season game, and over the past two preseasons with the Rams averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt while posting just 1 TD and 5 picks. Until further notice, the only Denver pass catcher worth considering is Courtland Sutton.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): Moreau is no more than a TD dart throw against a defense that has only allowed 2 scores to the tight end position this year. Moreau’s playing time took a small dip last week as the Raiders played more 3 receiver sets. I’d wouldn’t expect that to be the norm moving forward though. The Lions have had issues with backup tight ends this year, allowing Deon Yelder to go 2-43, Marcedes Lewis to go 2-50, and Irv Smith to go 5-60 all within their last 4 team games. I’d still avoid Moreau this week if possible.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk.9: vs. Was.): With Tyler Kroft healthy for the first time this year, Knox played his lowest snap total of the year (28 snaps) and wasn’t targeted once. This looks like it’ll be a time share moving forward that favors Kroft. I wouldn’t expect Knox to consistently see zero targets, but his volume isn’t a sure enough thing to trust him in lineups.

TE Josh Oliver, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou. (London)): Oliver has been back on the field for two weeks now. In those two weeks he’s played 55 offensive snaps but totaled just 1 catch for 6 yards on 2 targets. His role may expand in the coming weeks but there isn’t enough there right now to consider him in lineups.

Rookies on Byes: QB Ryan Finley, CIN, RB Darrell Henderson, LAR

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Brett Rypien, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): It sounds as though it will be Rypien, and not 1^st round pick Drew Lock that will be activated to serve as backup to Brandon Allen with Flacco sidelined for the next month plus. I wouldn’t be surprised to see head coach Vic Fangio have a quick hook for Allen if things go poorly, and I think Rypien could potentially thrive in the same ways that Gardner Minshew has. Rypien doesn’t have the arm strength that Drew Lock does, but he was a 4-year starter at Boise State that was a consistently efficient passer and shouldn’t be a deer in headlights if given the chance to play. Allen was a one-year wonder in college, and as I mentioned earlier, he has 1 TD and 5 INTs in the 8 preseason games he’s played in. I liked Rypien more than Lock prior to the draft, and I’m hopeful to see him get a shot here. If you’re in a really deep 2-QB league, Rypien might be worth a stash this week to see if he gets a chance.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 9: @Oak.): Johnson’s role in week 8 was a frustrating one for fantasy players who made him a priority on the waiver wire. It was Tra Carson getting the early down work and somehow even Paul Perkins mixed in a bit as Johnson found his way to just 38 scrimmage yards and 4.8 PPR points. There is hope for Johnson this week though. He was easily the most impressive back for Detroit in that game and had 21 yards nixed by penalties. Importantly for this week, Johnson and McKissic are the only Lions RBs getting targets in the passing game. The Raiders allow the 7^th-most catches and 10^th-most receiving yards to the position. There will be opportunities for Johnson to make an impact. I’m not sure he’s worth playing anywhere outside of really deep leagues and possibly a GPP DFS tournament, but I like his chances at a much better performance this week.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 9: @NYG): The Cowboys enter this week as a 7-point favorite and have had an extra week to get ready for the Giants after appearing to get themselves right in a week 7 drubbing of the Eagles. Pollard didn’t find a ton of running room against Philly, totaling just 28 yards on 8 carries, but the Eagles are one of the best run defenses in the league and Pollard played more snaps in that contest than he had in the previous 3 combined. The Giants aren’t a complete pushover against the run, but they are significantly worse than Philadelphia. They rank 12^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game. If Dallas controls this game as expected, Pollard has a good chance at double-digit touches and should be in play in the deepest leagues.

WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 9: vs. NYJ): This isn’t a bad week to take a shot on Preston Williams in deep leagues and GPP tournaments. $4,200 is an extremely reasonable price tag on DraftKings for a guy that is averaging 8 targets per game in his last 5. The Jets rank 21^st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 8^th-most WR points per game. One of these weeks it will be Williams’ turn to find the end zone, but he offers a nice floor this week with upside for people looking for a bye week fill-in in deeper leagues.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Dal.): This will sound a bit like point chasing after Slayton scored 2 TDs last week on just 2 catches, but I think people are going to overlook the rookie with Sterling Shepard returning. Slayton was targeted 5 times the last time both Shepard & Tate played together, and clearly the team likes going to him in the red zone. He’s averaging 17 air yards per target, which means he only needs a few balls thrown his way to post a nice game. I would probably avoid Slayton in season-long leagues, but at just $3,800 on DraftKings, I like him as a guy who will have really low ownership rates in DFS tournaments and has the potential for another strong day.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 9: @Oak.): If there was ever a week to take a shot on Hockenson returning some value, this is it. The Raiders have been beaten up by tight ends this year, giving up 63 yards per game to the position and 6 scores in 7 games. Only the Cardinals and Bucs allow more fantasy points to the position. It’s been rough out there for TJ since putting up 131 yards in the opener. He has just 109 total yards since and hasn’t eclipsed 32 yards in any one game in that span. You’re not playing him expecting big yardage. You’re just hoping he scores a TD.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with the toughest decisions you have this week involving the rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure everyone in your lineups is good to go, and don’t forget that the Jaguars/Texans game this week is at 8:30 AM CT in London, so if you have any players on those teams make sure you are on top of setting your lineup. If you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about what is written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re down to just 4 weeks left of the fantasy regular season, so it’s crunch time if you’re not where you want to be in the standings. Week 10 brings SIX bye weeks (HOU, PHI, WAS, NE, DEN, JAX), so there are probably plenty of you out there in need of bye week fill-ins. Week 9 was a big one for the rookies, with David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, DK Metcalf, Devin Singletary and Kyler Murray all posting banner weeks. Parris Campbell was on his way to a breakout game before suffering another significant injury. It’s a bummer for him since he was in line for extended work with TY Hilton sidelined, but there are plenty of other rookies who could potentially help moving forward. Let’s talk about what to expect in week 10…

Rookies to Start:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 10: @TB): It took a late long TD to get there, but Kyler became the first QB all year to top 20 fantasy points against the 49ers last week. He’s been better at home than on the road, but the Bucs pass defense has been a mess this year. They’ve allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game on the year and rank 26^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. With Wentz, Watson and Brady all on byes this week, Murray should have no trouble finishing as a top-10 QB in a great matchup.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): If you have Jacobs on your roster, he should be in your lineup this week. He’s topped 120 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games and faces a Chargers defense that ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 10^th-most points to the position. The Chargers have been playing well as of late and could get out to an early lead, but Vegas doesn’t expect that to happen with LA favored by just 1 point. You should trust Jacobs to perform once again.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): It was only a couple weeks ago that Montgomery ran for just 6 yards on 3 carries and Matt Nagy had to tell the world he isn’t an idiot. All that’s happened since then is back-to-back RB7 finishes for Monty. The Bears may feel like a dumpster fire at this point, but it hasn’t affected Montgomery. This week he gets to face the defense that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. The Lions have had more trouble with pass-catching backs than pure runners, but the Bears seem to finally be committed to giving Monty the ball. He should be a solid RB2 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 10: @NYJ): After allowing 6 passing scores total in their first 6 games of the year the Jets have given up 6 more in just the last 2 weeks and over 275 yards passing in each game to Gardner Minshew and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Jones has proven to be turnover prone, but with the wheels coming off for the Jets he should be able to post a nice day. The Jets rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA and haven’t been able to generate much of a pass rush since shipping Leonard Williams to the G-Men. I’d expect Jones to be a solid QB2 this week who could push for a top-12 week with so many players on byes.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Week 9 felt like a turning point for Singletary. It was the first time all year that he out-snapped Frank Gore in a game that the Bills played mostly from ahead. He had played big snaps in week 1 when they trailed the Jets all game, and again in week 8 in the loss to the Eagles, but the Bills never trailed in week 10 and Singletary saw the lion’s share of the work. He out-snapped Gore 41-21, and out-touched him 23-11. He had as many carries in week 10 as he did in the other 4 games he suited up for combined. The Bills are somehow actually underdogs this week in Cleveland, but that may play more into Singletary’s favor as the primary pass-catching back. The Browns allow the 9^th-most RB points per game, and Singletary has scored double-digit PPR points in every game he’s played. I’d try to find a way to get him in your lineup this week if you can.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 10: @Chi.): Despite their recent struggles, the Bears are still considered to be a formidable defense, but they’ve given up the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backs. Johnson’s playing time jumped to 62% of the offensive snaps with Tra Carson out last week, and I’d expect that sort of workload to continue. Johnson hasn’t reached 30 yards rushing in any game since the Kerryon injury, but the Bears allow more receptions per game to the position than every team but the Texans. JD McKissic will mix in a bit, but Johnson seems likely to see 15+ touches in this game and that should put him in play as a PPR flex option.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Brown looked to be over his hamstring injury on Sunday, posting 3 catches for 48 yards against the Patriots. That isn’t exactly a useful fantasy line, but it came against one of the best pass defenses in the league. This week he faces off with one of the worst. There is a real possibility that the Ravens throw fewer than the 23 passes they threw last week if this game gets out of hand, but Brown has a reasonable shot to do some damage before it gets lopsided. The Bengals allow the 3^rd-most pass plays per game of 20+ yards and they rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. With 6 teams on byes this week, Brown is a reasonable WR3 play and upside DFS option.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 10: @Chi.): It’s becoming a repetitive weekly refrain with Hockenson…he’s in play as a low-end TE1 option pretty much every week due to the lack of depth at the position. To illustrate that point, Will Dissly is still a top-10 scorer at the position on the year despite not playing a game since week 5. Hockenson posted his best yardage total since week 1 last Sunday against the Raiders, and it feels like the Lions have been making a concerted effort to get him more involved. This week he faces a Bears’ defense that allows the 4^th-most points per game to the position. The low floor we’ve seen makes TJ a less than appealing option, but it’s brutal out there if you’re looking for a fill-in and Hockenson does offer nice upside this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Ryan Finley, CIN (Wk. 10: vs. Bal.): You probably don’t need me to tell you to sit Finley this week, but here I am doing it anyway. Patrick Mahomes is the only QB to tally more than 1 touchdown against the Ravens all year, and I really don’t expect Finley to be the second, especially with the news Thursday that he won’t have AJ Green back for this one. He’s worth monitoring in superflex and 2-QB leagues, maybe even a stash in deeper ones, but putting him in the lineup this week would be asking for trouble even with 6 teams on bye.

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Malcolm Brown is trending in the right direction to return for the Rams this week, and that is likely to push Henderson down to the RB3 role on his own team. The Rams are favored by 3.5 points this week, so it doesn’t exactly shape up to be a blowout where the backups will get extended run. I’d stay far away from Henderson this week unless it becomes clear that Brown isn’t playing. Even in that scenario you’d have to be desperate to consider Henderson. He’d still be looking at a very limited workload against a defense that allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Once again Mattison reminded us that he carries a very low floor in weeks that the Vikings don’t play from ahead. Mattison carried the ball just 3 times last Sunday for in the loss to the Chiefs and the Vikings are a 3-point underdog in Jerry World this weekend. Mattison will probably get a handful of carries, but I wouldn’t expect a usable fantasy game unless the Vikings somehow run away with this one.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): A comfortable win over the Giants got Pollard just 15 snaps, 3 carries and 3 targets. I wouldn’t expect things to be nearly as comfortable this week against the Vikings. Pollard is worth taking a shot on in matchups where the Cowboys are expected to win in a romp, but when they aren’t there isn’t much reason to consider him unless Zeke isn’t healthy.

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 10: @Cin.): I keep waiting for Hill to get more opportunity in this offense and it may happen at some point, but I’m not willing to roll the dice that it will be this week. Hill did put up 31 rushing yards in the first meeting with Cincy in week 6, and the Ravens are comfortable road favorites in this game, but in the 3 games this year that Baltimore has won by double-digits Hill has seen a total of 10 carries and 1 target. It has been Gus Edwards getting the extra carries and not Hill. You could throw a dart at Hill this week in DFS tournaments, but I wouldn’t expect much from him even if the Ravens win in a rout.

RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 10: @Ind.): Don’t fall into the trap on Gaskin as a potential sleeper down the stretch. Gaskin is likely to be active for the first time all year this week with Mark Walton suspended, but the Dolphins have had just 2 double-digit PPR scoring performances from a running back all year. Two of the four games Walton will miss are against teams in the top 8 at limiting RB points, including this week’s opponent the Colts. Gaskin would be a dicey option if it were clear he was going to be the lead back, but he’s likely to split work with Kalen Ballage. Let someone else chase the opportunity here.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 10: @SF): The matchup this week is less than ideal for Metcalf squaring off against the team that allows the 6^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA. The 49ers showed some cracks against Arizona last week and Russell Wilson has proven himself to be a magician all season, but the Niners been a different animal at home allowing an average of 144 passing yards per game and a 2:6 TD-to-INT ratio in 3 games at Levi’s Stadium. Metcalf posted his best PPR game of the season last weekend with 25 points, but I wouldn’t expect anything near a repeat performance. I don’t expect Josh Godon to take a big chunk out of DK’s workload in his Seahawks’ debut, but he adds another layer of uncertainty to the mix. The tough matchup doesn’t render Metcalf completely unplayable this week with so many byes, but I’d lean against it if you have other reasonable options.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Renfrow posted his 2 best games of the year in the last 2 weeks, with totals of 10-142-2 on 11 targets. It’s exciting to see him get more involved in the offense and make plays, but for the year he still has just 2 games with more than 5 targets and just 2 catches of longer than 12 yards. He needs volume to get by. The Chargers allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game and have allowed just 4 WR touchdowns in their past 7 games. You could use Renfrow as a flex in deeper PPR leagues if you really need a fill-in, but I’d probably avoid him anywhere else.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): You could do worse than Samuel this week, but he remains no higher than 3^rd in the target pecking order of a passing attack that throws the ball less than any other team in the league. He seems to have solidly established himself as the WR2 behind Emmanuel Sanders and is playing close to 70% of the snaps, but he’s only topped 44 yards in a game once this season. The Seahawks rank just 22^nd in run defense DVOA, so the 49ers would be wise to stick to what they do best and run the ball to keep it away from Russell Wilson as much as possible, and that’s going to affect the upside Samuel has. If you think 3-4 catches for 40-50 yards is going to help you win this week, Samuel should be able to produce somewhere in that ballpark. I’d look for someone with more upside in most leagues.

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Adam Thielen looks to be back on the shelf this week, which should get Bisi back into the mix, but the Cowboys have been solid against opposing WRs. They allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game and have allowed multiple wide receivers to reach 50 yards in the same game just twice all year. Stefon Diggs should be the clear lead option this week, so I’d look to Johnson to finish in the 30-40 yard range. I’d look for better options if I were considering Bisi.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Hardman should get Mahomes back at QB this week which should give him a better chance at maximizing his big play opportunities, but with the whole WR group healthy he’s played just 20 snaps total in the last 2 weeks. There’s still that weekly chance of a home run play, but it’s not something to take a shot on outside of a DFS tournament.

WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 10: @TB): Each of these guys found the end zone last week against the 49ers, but I wouldn’t count on them doing it again even in a great matchup. The Bucs allow the most WR points per game, and rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA, but the duo combined for just 38 snaps and 4 targets last week. That just isn’t enough volume to count on for fantasy production. Kliff Kingsbury has already said Isabella isn’t going to see a spike in playing time as a result of his 88-yard TD, and the team is expected to use David Johnson lined up out wide quite a bit this week with Kenyan Drake involved. These guys are best left on your bench.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 10: @Cin.): You probably don’t need much explanation here. If Boykin’s season totals were all put up last week, he still would’ve been just the WR3 for the week. I love his talent, but the opportunity just hasn’t been there for Boykin so far this year.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): As Darren Waller has drawn more attention, Moreau has made a habit of getting in the end zone. He’s scored 3 TDs in the last 5 weeks, but if you throw out the TDs he has just 4 catches for 37 yards over the last 3 weeks. He needs to find the end zone to be useful for your team, and the Chargers haven’t let a tight end score all year. If any Raider breaks that streak this week I’d expect it to be Waller.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Knox’s playing time rebounded in week 9 as he was back up to a 76% snap share, but he hasn’t posted a useful fantasy day since week 4 and has just 2 useful games all year. The Browns do allow the 11^th-most points to the position, so there is some appeal as a DFS dart throw hoping for a touchdown, but that feels like wishful thinking at this point.

Rookies on Byes: QB Gardner Minshew, JAX, QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS, RB Miles Sanders, PHI, RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX, WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI, WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE, TE Noah Fant, DEN, TE Josh Oliver, JAX

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. LAR): Johnson doesn’t get a great matchup this week against a Rams’ defense allowing the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, but I think the opportunity is there for a stronger game that expected. Jalen Ramsey probably won’t follow JuJu Smith-Schuster into the slot, but he’ll be matched up on him whenever he lines up outside. Johnson had a disappointing game last weekend, but his snap share was right on par with where he’s been. The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog this week and the Rams rank 4^th in run defense DVOA and 15^th in pass defense DVOA, so the way to attack them is through the air and the script should give Pittsburgh reason to throw. If Ramsey locks horns with JuJu a bunch, Diontae should be the biggest benefactor.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 10: @NYJ): Slayton’s usage has dipped a bit with Golden Tate integrated into the offense since returning from suspension, but the Giants are likely to be without Evan Engram on Sunday and face a Jets team that has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game. Slayton is far from a sure thing this week, but I like his chances to post a solid game with Engram’s 8.5 targets per game out of the equation.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. KC): Brown gets mentioned as a sleeper this week due to the potential that Corey Davis misses this game. Brown has been targeted 18 times in the last 3 weeks with Ryan Tannehill at QB, and while Tannehill also has shown an affinity for slot receiver Adam Humphries the Chiefs have been more vulnerable to outside WRs. Kansas City allows the 7^th-fewest WR points per game, but the biggest fantasy days they’ve allowed have been to athletic perimeter receivers like Courtland Sutton (6-87), Kenny Golladay (5-67-2), Marvin Jones (3-77), DJ Chark (4-146-1), and Tyrell Williams (5-46-1). They even let Laquon Treadwell post a career-high 58 receiving yards last week. Brown is much closer to the type of receiver they’ve given up points to than Humphries is. If Davis misses this game, Brown becomes a big upside WR4 despite a seemingly tough matchup.

TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 10: @Dal.): The Vikings will have some extra passing volume to spread around this week with Adam Thielen sidelined again, and Smith has been proving to be a reliable target. Over the past 4 weeks he has the same number of receptions as Kyle Rudolph (14) and 9 more receiving yards (143), and he has an impressive 83.6% catch rate on the year. The Cowboys allow the 7^th-most points to the tight end position, which leads me to believe that tight end is where many of those extra targets will go. Smith is an interesting dart throw this week in the deepest of leagues and in DFS tournaments.

TE Jace Sternberger, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): There is no reason to play Sternberger this week against a Panthers’ defense that allows the 7^th-fewest points to the position, but it’s worth noting that he has been activated off injured reserve and the Packers haven’t really gotten what they’d hoped for from the soon to be 33-year old Jimmy Graham. The 22-year old Sternberger was a field stretcher at the tight end position for Texas A&M and he may get the chance to do the same for the Packers sooner than we’d expect. Sternberger was second among all tight ends in NCAA yards per catch last year. He’s certainly worth a stash in dynasty leagues if he’s out there, and he might come in handy in deeper TE premium leagues before this season is out.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you aren’t starting anyone who will be inactive or roadblocked by an active player who was hurt. If you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about what is written above, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.