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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you…this week is the regular season finale. You should have a really good idea of what you need to do to make the playoffs if you’re fighting for a spot. If you need to win and make up some points, it might be worth taking some swings on some riskier plays. If you just need a win, I wouldn’t get too cute. Make sure you know what you need to do when setting your lineups. Each week there have been more and more rookies becoming fantasy relevant. It’s hard to imagine you’re in a matchup that doesn’t involve any rookies this week. Let’s dive in and look at what to expect this week…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Of course you’re not going to sit Saquon in season-long leagues, but he isn’t exactly the chalk play in DFS cash games. Only New England, Detroit and Miami have managed to tally 20 RB points in a game against the Bears this season (all point totals and rankings are based on PPR scoring). The Bears have been a little vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing the 8^th-most receptions to the position on the year, but they’ve given up fewer than 70 RB rushing yards in 8 out of 11 contests on the year. Double-digit points for Barkley are likely a given, but don’t count on a ceiling week from the rookie.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): How bad are the Bengals against running backs this year? They’ve been burned by both ground and air. Cincy has given up the 4^th-most rushing yards and 5^th-most TDs on the ground, and the 7^th-most receiving yards and are tied for the most TDs allowed by air. They also rank 28^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Lindsay has been one of the best fantasy backs in the league this year despite being underutilized, and he should be a locked in RB1 this week.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): The Texans are a tough matchup, ranking 2^nd in run defense DVOA and allowing the 10^th-fewest RB points per game, but Nick Chubb has been red hot since the coaching change in Cleveland. He’s averaged 26.6 points per game in the past 3 contests since the switch. You can’t sit a guy producing like that.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Falcons have been getting shredded by backs catching passes out of the backfield all year, and lately they’ve started getting beat up by them on the ground as well. Atlanta has given up 151 rushing yards per game to backs over the past 3 games, and they rank 29^th in run defense DVOA. Edwards has exploded onto the scene in Baltimore, topping 100 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 outings while averaging a robust 5.8 yards per carry. He hasn’t done anything as a receiver, but he’s a solid RB2 this week in most formats, and a solid flex play even in PPR leagues. He did pop up on the injury report with a missed practice Wednesday, but it’s likely nothing. I’d expect him, to play. If he sits, Ty Montgomery is a sneaky play this week.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Adams looks like he’s for real so far, and the Eagles appear to be treating him as their feature back. He carried the ball 22 times in week 12, and should be in store for a plenty more work this week. Washington has allowed more than 125 RB rush yards in 3 of their past 4 contests, and rank 26^th in run defense DVOA. Adams looks like a strong RB2 option this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 13: @TB): DJ Moore was a bit let down the last time he faced the Buccaneers, but I have faith that he doesn’t repeat that dud this time around. Both Devin Funchess and Curtis Samuel were held out of practice Wednesday with injuries. If both are out, Moore and Christian McCaffrey will likely be the beneficiaries. The Bucs have allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game, and Moore has tallied 15-248-1 over the past 2 weeks. He should be a strong WR2 option this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): The Texans allow just the 7^th-fewest QB points per game, but Baker has been dealing since the regime change and Houston managed to let Marcus Mariota go 22/23 for 302 yards and 2 scores on Monday night. Mayfield has posted 13 touchdowns and just 2 turnovers in his past 5 starts. He’ll likely finish as a back-end QB1 this week in most leagues.

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Falcons’ banged up defense has been bad on all levels this season, and they’ve given up the 2^nd-most QB points per game on the year. With no byes this week, Lamar’s lack of passing volume likely makes him a low-end QB1 at best this week, but his rushing upside makes him a fun streamer and DFS play.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 13 vs. Min.): Michel has been fantastic whenever he’s been healthy, but he gets a tough matchup this week. You should still probably start him if you’ve got him, but the Vikings rank 4^th in run defense DVOA, have allowed just 3 RB rushing scores all year, and have coughed up 100 rushing yards to the position just once. Volume should carry Michel through, but he’s certainly not an ideal DFS cash game play.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Johnson’s status is still very up in the air for this week. I’d struggle to sit him if he’s healthy. Kerryon has tallied 15+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 outings, but he could see his volume limited if he isn’t 100% this week. The Lions likely see no need to rush him back with their playoff hopes basically dead. The Rams do rank 29^th in run defense DVOA, so there is upside for Kerryon to be a solid flex play, but the Rams are heavy favorites and will probably force Detroit into a negative game script. Make sure you have a backup plan if you’re counting on Kerryon.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Ridley has been a TD or bust option most weeks. He found the end zone and had a big game last week, but this week’s matchup is the polar opposite of what he faced in week 12. The Saints allow the most WR points per game, and the Ravens allow the 3^rd-fewest per game, and have allowed just 5 WR touchdowns in their past 9 games. Ridley is still in play as a viable WR3 option, but you’ll likely be disappointed if he doesn’t find the end zone.

WR KekeCoutee, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): DeAndre Hopkins has been the only sure thing in this passing game since the trade for Demaryius Thomas. There is upside with the Browns allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game, but the addition of DT and the recent emergence of Lamar Miller’s running game have made Coutee a dicey weekly flex option.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 13: @NYG): We’ve seen the upside with Miler over the past few weeks, but the Bears seem to feature a different receiver each week and Mitch Trubisky may be out again. I like Miller more if Trubisky plays, but it feels like each week one of Miller or Taylor Gabriel will be targeted 7+ times. The trick is guessing which one it will be. The Giants allow the 9^th-fewest WR points per game. Playing Miller outside of really deep leagues is a roll of the dice this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Allen has only managed to be productive when he’s been able to do damage with his legs, and only 5 teams have allowed fewer QB rushing yards than the Miami Dolphins. The Bills threw just 19 times in a competitive game in week 12, and they’d prefer to stay in that range most weeks. Allen does seem to have his best games when least expected (against Minnesota and Jacksonville), but It would be a pretty big risk to try him this week outside of deep 2-QB leagues.

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 13: @GB): The Packers’ defense hasn’t been great, but Rosen has remained a low-volume passer even in matchups where they’ve been way behind. Green Bay doesn’t give up a lot of passing yards either. Only Kirk Cousins has thrown for 300 or more yards against the Pack, and they’ve allowed an average of less than 225 yards per game to all the other QBs they’ve faced. Even if he throws for 2 scores, Rosen is likely no better than a mid-level QB2.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Ten.): It’s likely that Darnold will stay sidelined this week. If he does play, the Titans’ pass defense isn’t anything to fear but Darnold has averaged just 8.2 points per game in his 5 road starts. He hasn’t topped 13.8 in any of them. Stay away.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): In the last 3 weeks, Ito has posted just 14 carries for 21 yards and 8 catches for 34, and zero total TDs. The Ravens allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. There is no reason to have any faith in Ito this week.

RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 13: @Jax.): Both rookies were a little more involved last weekend than they’ve been in a while, but they still combined for just 11.2 fantasy points on 14 touches. The Jaguars allow the fewest RB fantasy points per game.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Tre’Quan seems likely to play this Thursday, but I feel a big game coming for the Saints’ usual suspects (Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram) after Brees threw TDs to everyone else last week. The Cowboys do try to shorten the game with a ball control offense, and that’s helped them allow the 2^nd-fewest WR fantasy points in the league so far. Smith still has big upside as the WR2 in this offense, but we’ve seen low-floor weeks from him before, and I have a hunch we see another this week. I’d still play Smith over any other receiver listed in the ‘Rookies to Sit’ section.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 13: @GB): As mentioned above, this probably won’t be a big week for Josh Rosen. That doesn’t mean that Kirk can’t have a productive week. The Packers do allow the 6^th-most WR points per game. I’d just prefer to play a receiver in a higher upside offense this week.

WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): Both receivers are no more than a DFS dart throw this week. St. Brown appears to have moved ahead of MVS on the depth chart for the time being, but I’m not confident that it will continue this week. Both are risky plays in a game that could be over early on. The Packers are 2-touchdown favorites and could be running a lot.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Callaway’s efficiency has been much better of late after some early season struggles. He’s grabbed 14 receptions on 18 targets in the past 4 games after grabbing just 16 on 42 targets prior to that. He still isn’t seeing enough volume to be productive without a TD, and the Texans have allowed just 1 receiver score in the past 5 games.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Sutton has flashed big upside at times, but he’s yet to catch more than 3 passes in a game or reach 11 fantasy points. You can’t trust that kind of track record with your season on the line.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Quinn has shown a nice PPR floor with Colt McCoy at QB, and the Eagles have allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game so far, but they’ve been burned by perimeter receivers, not slot guys. With a full slate of games this week, there are likely better options available.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. NO): The Saints allow the most WR points per game, but don’t be fooled into thinking Gallup is a sneaky DFS dart throw in this matchup. The Saints have been carved up by number 1 receivers, and in the 3 games since the Amari Cooper trade Gallup has 6 catches for 53 yards on 14 targets.

WR Auden Tate, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Tate came out of nowhere last week with 7(!) targets, but he caught just 2 of them for 15 targets. There may be some rapport with new starter Jeff Driskel, but Tate will likely struggle to get on the field with AJ Green back healthy.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Ten.): Herndon has become a big part of the Jets’ passing attack, but the Titans have allowed no more than 5 catches and 52 receiving yards to any TE group other than the Eagles and Zach Ertz. They haven’t allowed a tight end score all season. Herndon likely needs to be the first one to find the end zone for a productive week.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Washington has given up just 3 tight end scores on the year, and no tight end group has made it to 55 receiving yards. Even Ertz may struggle here. Goedert is just a TD dart throw that isn’t likely to hit.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): The Broncos may finally have a game where they are playing from ahead with the Bengals rolling with Jeff Driskel at QB. That could give Freeman some extra run in garbage time against one of the worst RB defenses in the NFL. He’s got a better than average chance at a TD this week.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Penny is only an option in DFS tournaments. The Seahawks love to run the ball when they can, and they’re favored by double-digits against the 49ers. Chris Carson is still the lead back, but one of Penny or Mike Davis is likely to have a solid fantasy day in mop-up duty. The hard part will be guessing which one.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Melvin Gordon will be out multiple weeks after aggravating an injury against the Cardinals. I can’t say I understand why the Chargers played Gordon in a week they were likely to win by multiple scores without him, but it’s happened now. Austin Ekeler should be the lead back in his absence, but Justin Jackson will certainly get some extended run as well. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues. He flashed in garbage time last week with 7 carries for 57 yards against the Cardinals. This week’s matchup is tough, but it bears watching to see how Jackson is used since Gordon could be out up to 4 weeks.

WRs Dante Pettis & Richie James, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Marquise Goodwin is still not with the team as of Wednesday dealing with a personal matter, and Pierre Garcon was limited in practice Wednesday and is still no sure bet to play. Mullens has given the 49ers at least a respectable passing game, and the Seahawks’ defense has been middling against WRs. Pettis posted 7 targets a week ago, and could have a similar target share this week if both Goodwin and Garcon are out. James played more snaps that a healthy Trent Taylor for the first time all year. Both he and Pettis are trending up this week. James is more of a stash at this point, but Pettis has real DFS upside if the top 2 WRs are out.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Foster is a boom-or-bust option in a lackluster passing attack, but one that has boomed in back-to-back weeks. He’s posted 5-199-1 in the past 2 games, and while he isn’t likely to repeat that production this week, only 3 teams have allowed more than the 9 passes of 40+ yards that the Dolphins have surrendered. With Josh Allen’s big arm, Foster has a chance to post a run similar to the one former Rams’ receiver Chris Givens went on as a rookie back in 2012 where he caught a 50-plus yard pass in 5 straight games.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Ateman didn’t produce last week, but he saw a ridiculous 10(!) targets. Jordy Nelson is practicing and looks likely to play this week, but the Raiders don’t have a lot of reason to keep featuring the old guys. I’d expect Ateman to continue to see a decent number of targets. Kansas City is just a middling defense against WRs. Ateman should have upside in DFS tournaments this week if the targets keep up.

TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Arnold has slowly started to make an impact for the Saints, and he is starting to look like the successor to Ben Watson as the TE of the future. He won’t get many years of Brees, but he’s still an intriguing dynasty stash. He’s a converted WR who has plenty of upside. Arnold is also a sneaky DFS play this week against a Dallas team that has given up 28-339-3 to TEs in the past 3 weeks.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Hayden Hurst led the Ravens’ tight end group with 4 targets last Sunday, and Andrews had just one, but Andrews is the one I’d take a shot on this week if you’re digging deep for a TE sleeper. Andrews is the best vertical threat the Ravens have at the position, and vertical TEs have given the Falcons and their banged up safety group trouble. They’ve given up solid games to Vernon Davis (5-62), Dan Arnold (4-45-1), OJ Howard (4-62-1) and Ben Watson (5-71).

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies in this critical week. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week, and make sure to check for any surprise inactives on Sunday. You’d hate to miss the playoffs because you take an unnecessary zero. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

4 of the top 8 QBs - Owned in 34% of Leagues or Less

Week 13 was a rough one for fantasy footballers. The end of the fantasy regular season brought a ton of chaos at the QB position. Only half of the top 8 QBs are likely to be owned in your league. Josh Allen (2nd - 5% owned), Derek Carr (4th - 18% owned), Nick Mullens (6th - 7% owned) and Marcus Mariota (8th - 34% owned) all put up at least 22.5 points in standard leagues. We also saw three regular starters finish outside of the top 25 QBs. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan both had terrible statistical games and were led by Jared Goff who at least won his game on the way to his 9.08 points. With all of this inconsistency at the position, we must give props to Patrick Mahomes, who once again led the way with 33 points and threw for 4 TDs for the 7th time this year (now up to 41 on the season). If the Chiefs can avoid off-field distractions and hold off the red-hot Chargers, then Mahomes is definitely in line to win the league MVP in his first year as a starter.

3 of the top 5 WRs - Owned in 3% of Leagues or Less

Whaaaaaaa? Who are these mystery men that dominated week 13's stat sheets? Well, Dante Pettis led the way with 24.70 points and is owned in just 3% of leagues. Pettis is actually a decent waiver pickup this week, with 20 targets in the last 3 weeks he is definitely trending up. Outside of the Sunday night game, where Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown put on a show, finishing 2nd and 3rd in points this week, we're right back to the guys that are not on any teams. Zay Jones (20.70 pts - 1% owned) and Jaron Brown (18.70 pts - 0% owned) both had 67 receiving yards and 2 TDs, with Jones adding a 2pt conversion. Ultimately, 13 of the top 30 WRs this week are owned in 30% of leagues or less.  In a week where points were at a premium, there were sure a lot of touchdowns that made you say "That helps nobody!".

23% More Fantasy Points Than 2nd Place

Saquon Barkley is having a hell of a season. He's nearly to 1000 rushing yards, he's got over 600 receiving yards and has found the end zone a dozen times, but he's in a distant second this year behind Todd Gurley's 282.90 points at the RB position. Gurley is dominating his position in a very Mahomes-esque fashion. He has nearly doubled up the RB10 and has more than doubled up the RB12. Gurley has paid off as the consensus #1 draft pick before the season started, something that usually does not wind up happening. So far, he's racked up 1649 yards from scrimmage along with 19 touchdowns. He's still got 3 weeks to go for fantasy players, so good luck if you've in the playoffs with him. Gurley has topped 20 points in 9 out of 12 games this season. He's got a couple of tough matchups in weeks 14 and 15, but his week 16 matchup is a juicy one in Arizona, so once again he will be delivering some fantasy championships for Christmas.

3+ TDs in 8 Straight Games

Andrew Luck had  a great streak of games going, throwing 27 TDs in 8 games, but that was broken on Sunday by the confusing and sometimes-decent Jacksonville Jaguars defense. The Jags blanked the Colts, 6-0 in Cody Kessler's first start for the Jaguars since the official benching of Blake Bortles. Kessler is clearly not the answer at QB, based on the 6 whole points that the Jags were able to muster. But back to the Colts for a moment - their last shutout was in week 7 of last year - also to the Jaguars. Before that, the Colts hadn't been shutout in the regular season since week 13 of the 1993 season - that's right, I had to go all the way back to the Jeff George era. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have a lot of rebuilding to do - with 4 weak opponents on the remaining schedule, they will still struggle to get another win.

135 Rush Yards

Josh Allen has been cut loose and is running free over his last two opponents. Week 13, he put up 135 rushing yards on only 9 attempts, giving him 234 yards on 22 attempts over two games, good for 10.6 yards per attempt. Allen is now third in rushing yards for QBs and has only played 8 games, compared to 12 games for the two guys above him. Extrapolated for a full season, he would have over 580 yards by now, on pace for 778 in 16 games. That's 75% of what Tom Brady has on his entire career, and yes, fine, congrats on getting to 1000 rushing yards, the most meaningless stat of your life. To wrap up on Josh Allen, his 30.74 points in week 13 were second best among all players. He's got 57 points in the last two weeks and has cupcake matchups against the Jets and Lions the next two weeks, so he could wind up as the best streaming option for the first couple of weeks of the playoffs.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve found our way to the fantasy playoffs…man did this season fly by. Hopefully your teams are still alive and kicking, and if they are, you’ve probably gotten some help from a rookie along the way. Each week more rookies have put their imprint on this season and the list of useful first year guys continues to grow. In week 13 it was Justin Jackson, Dante Pettis and Jeff Wilson Jr busting onto the scene. These one-week studs can be hard to trust with your season on the line this week, but the Rookie Report is here to help you sort it all out. Keep in mind that any players at the same position and under the same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 14…

Rookies to Start:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Mayfield has been playing at a high level over the last month plus, and the Panthers have been scuffling in a big way. Baker’s final stat line wasn’t pretty last week, but he had a strong second half after an abysmal first. Carolina has been giving up 23.5 points per game to opposing QBs over the past 5 games, and have let 4 of them reach 22 or more (all point totals and rankings are in PPR scoring format). The Panthers have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game on the year, and rank just 28^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’d expect Mayfield to finish the week as a top-10 performer at the position.

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 14: @Was.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Barkley. He should be a chalk play in DFS cash games this week as well. All you really need to know is that the 4-win Giants area 3.5-point favorite on the road. Washington is in shambles right now and Saquon should run wild on them.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Lindsay has scored in double-digits in every game this season that he wasn’t ejected from, but he’s really hit his stride lately. He’s been averaging 19.5 fantasy points over the past 6 games with 7 rushing scores in that span, and his top 2 rushing yardage totals of the year came in the past two weeks. The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites this week on the road against the 49ers, so game script should keep Lindsay running, and running well. You can’t sit him this week.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): I was tempted to list Chubb as a borderline option this week due to the tough matchup, but couldn’t bring myself to do it. His use as a receiver has kept him useful even when he hasn’t had big rushing days. The Panthers allow the 5^th fewest RB points per game and rank 8^th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has had just one game outside the top-20 RBs since becoming the unquestioned starter in Cleveland. The upside is too good to leave sidelined.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 14: @Mia.): The Pats are heavy favorites in Miami this weekend, and the Dolphins have coughed up the 7^th-most RB points per game on the year. The return of Rex Burkhead might limit Michel’s upside just a bit, but he still handled 17 carries last Sunday with the Patriots up most of the day. If the workload is similar this week, and it should be, the Georgia alum should have a strong RB2 finish.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): This will be an interesting week for Jackson. Kansas City has allowed the 5^th-most QB points per game on the year, but they rank a passable 13^th in pass defense DVOA and Lamar hasn’t reached 180 passing yards in any of his 3 starts and has just 1 passing TD total in those games. His rushing yards give him a solid weekly floor, especially with the Chiefs ranking dead last in run defense DVOA, but he’ll need a more productive passing day than he’s had so far to hit his ceiling. He’s a risky QB1 streamer in deeper leagues, but a solid QB2.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): As I just mentioned above, the Chiefs rank dead last in the league in run defense DVOA. Edwards provides nothing in the passing game and the Chiefs are a TD-favorite, but the Ravens with Lamar Jackson under center aren’t going to abandon the run game even if they fall behind. With 61 carries and 315 rushing yards in the last 3 weeks, Edwards should be a high-floor flex play this week who will pleasantly surprise if he finds the end zone. He remains a better play in non-PPR formats.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 14: @Dal.): The workhorse usage continued for Adams in week 13, his second straight game with 20+ carries, but like Gus Edwards he’s been a non-factor in the passing game. Dallas is a tough matchup, ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 8^th-fewest RB points per game. He’s still in play as a flex option, but I’d be hopeful I have better options at the RB1 and RB2 spots.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): Jackson became fantasy relevant at just the right time to showcase his skills. There aren’t many matchups better than the one he faces this week. Melvin Gordon will be sidelined again, and Jackson was far more effective last week than Austin Ekeler has been in a lead back role. Coach Anthony Lynn claimed Ekeler is worn down at this point of the season, and hinted that Jackson would have a bigger role moving forward until Gordon returns. Cincy ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA, and has allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. In the past 7 games, the Bengals have given up 145 rushing yards per game to RBs along with 11 rushing TDs. There’s risk here since we don’t really know how the split will look between Jackson and Ekeler, but Jackson has the upside to finish the week as a top-10 back.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 14: @Oak.): Samuels should have a big opportunity this week with James Connor out, but head coach Mike Tomlin has stated it will be a running back by committee game plan with Samuels and vet Stevan Ridley. Samuels is more likely to catch passes than Ridley, but Ryan Switzer may also pick up some of the dump offs vacated by Conner. The Raiders rank 31^st in run defense DVOA, but only the Vikings run the ball on a lower percentage of their offensive plays than the Steelers. Overall, Samuels makes for an intriguing flex option with plenty of PPR upside, but I think he’s riskier than Jackson this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Somehow Cleveland ranks an impressive 4^th in pass defense DVOA, but still allows the 8^th-most WR points per game. Although his production has been a little uneven, Moore’s usage has been consistent. He’s been targeted at least 8 times in each of the past 3 games. With Greg Olsen done for the year, Moore and Christian McCaffrey are the two focal points of this passing game. Moore is a solid WR3 this week.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): With the news Wednesday night that Emmanuel Sanders is done for the year with an Achilles tear, Sutton suddenly becomes the de facto WR1 in Denver. He’s posted 78+ receiving yards in each of his past 3 road games, and saw a career-high 7 targets last Sunday before Sanders was hurt. The 49ers rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA. He’s a safe bet for 7+ targets again this week and should be a legitimate WR3 play this week even in this lackluster passing attack.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): There isn’t much to say about Ridley except that he’s going to be a boom or bust option once again this week. He lives on the WR3 borderline. Green Bay has been mediocre against WRs, allowing the 9^th-most points per game to the position, and this one feels like it could be a shootout between 2 teams mired in disappointing seasons. Keep an eye on the weather report for this one. If it’s going to be bitter cold, I’d probably shy away from Ridley a bit, but his usual upside is there.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): In the last 4 road games that Smith has started in, he has totaled 6 catches for 62 yards with zero scores. That’s not exactly impressive, but I like his chances to have his best road game of the season this week. Tampa allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game and ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA. The Saints’ passing attack will be looking to get right this week after laying an egg in Dallas last Thursday, and the Bucs are as good a matchup to do that against as any. Smith should be closer to full health after being a non-factor last week. Tre’Quan remains risky, but he’s a fun option if you’re feeling lucky.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): If you’re scrounging the waiver wire this week for a TE (Olsen owner, worried about questionable tag on Ebron, not enthused about Brate, Burton, or Hooper), Andrews is worth a look this week. He’s quietly posted 121 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks with Lamar Jackson at QB, and Kansas City allows more TE points per game than any other team. They’ve given up 85+ receiving yards to TEs in 6 of their 12 contests, and have given up 30+ fantasy points and multiple scores to tight ends in each of the last 2 games. The floor is low, but Andrews seems to have emerged as the top TE target in Baltimore and has as good a matchup as possible.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): The matchup with the Lions is an OK one for Rosen. The Lions have given up an average of 2 passing TDs per week, but the volume just isn’t there for Rosen to be useful, and he just lost his most productive receiver to injured reserve (Christian Kirk). The Lions have held 6 of the 12 QBs they’ve faced to 230 or fewer passing yards. I’d expect Rosen to make it 7 of 13.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Darnold will likely return to the starting role this week, but this is not the matchup to roll the dice on him. The Bills rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and no team in the league has allowed fewer QB fantasy points. Just one QB they’ve faced in their past 10 games has topped 15 points, and 6 of them were held to 10 or fewer.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Ari.): At 4-8, the Lions have no reason to rush Kerryon back into action. He’s currently listed as doubtful, so it’s probably a moot point to even list him here. If he is active, I’d expect the Lions to really limit his playing time. I’d avoid him this week.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Penny has made the most of limited opportunities in recent weeks with 223 rushing yards on 31 carries in the past 4 weeks, but the Vikings are stingy against the run and rank 9^th in run defense DVOA. I’d have some interest in Penny as a sleeper if he were being used as a receiver, but he has zero targets in those 4 games. The Vikings do rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to backs. There just isn’t enough upside in Penny to take a shot this week.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Hines was targeted a surprising 9 times last week and caught all of them, but I’d be stunned if that happens again. His usage remains wildly inconsistent, and the Texans rank 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. Hines provides little in the run game, and needs to make a splash as a receiver to be useful. This isn’t a great spot to bet on him doing that.

RB Chase Edmonds, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Don’t expect a repeat of the game Edmonds posted in week 13. He saw just 5 carries to 20 for David Johnson. I would expect a similar split this week…I just wouldn’t expect Edmonds to be as efficient with those limited touches this week.

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Pettis had a blowup game last weekend, but the Broncos have a strong pass defense. They rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, and Marquise Goodwin should be back this week. The 49ers should be passing plenty, so Pettis is worth consideration in deeper leagues, but for most formats there’s too much at stake to count on a repeat performance by Pettis.

WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside here, but your guess is as good as mine when it comes to which guy will make good on that upside. The Falcons rank an abysmal 31^st in pass defense DVOA, but have been mostly burned by RBs and TEs. I’d expect a lot of Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham this week. ESB and MVS are both too risky to roll with in the fantasy playoffs.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 5^th-fewest WR points in the league, and Coutee is battling his 3^rd hamstring injury of the season. It kept him out of last week’s game against Cleveland, and even if he’s able to play this week he’ll likely be the 3^rd option in the passing attack behind Nuk Hopkins and DT.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): With Jordy Nelson back at full strength, Ateman’s opportunity pretty much dried up. The Raiders would be smart to let the youngster get some valuable experience in a lost season, but it looks unlikely that Gruden will allow that. You can’t trust Ateman in any format this week.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The return of Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder should render Quinn irrelevant even if he is able to play this week. That duo will handle the majority of the targets that Quinn can compete for. It’s also hard to count on any passing game target in an offense that is quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): The Bills rank 2^nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. They’ve given up fewer than 2 TE points four times, and fewer than 9 points seven times. Herndon’s had some nice games along the way, but I wouldn’t want to bank on him finding the end zone in Darnold’s first game back on the field.

TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Thomas is a TD dart throw facing a team that has given up 3 tight end scores all year. Thomas has been a pretty good TD bet lately, catching 4 of them in his past 5 games, but he’s posted just 16.8 total points in the 8 games he didn’t find the end zone. A goose egg would be tough to swallow in a playoff game.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Allen has a consistently low floor, but he’s shown the upside with his running ability over the past few weeks. The removal of Kelvin Benjamin could be addition by subtraction for the Bills’ pass attack. The Jets have allowed 5 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced to reach 20 fantasy points, and another made it to 19. Allen is a decent QB2 streamer in a solid matchup.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Wilson caught 8 passes in his first meaningful game action of the season, and he should see more work going forward. Matt Breida is out this week, and the Broncos rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. He should be in play as a flex option in PPR formats. I’d expect Alf Morris to be active and be part of the game plan, but Wilson will be the better fantasy option of the 2.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): If you’re desperate at RB, you could do worse than take a shot on Freeman finding the end zone this week. He’s found the end zone in half of the games he’s played this season, and the Broncos should be able to control this game or at least keep the game script neutral. The Niners are just a middling run defense, ranking 16^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): This is the first time in 4 weeks that Smith actually has a decent matchup after squaring off against the Cowboys, Saints and Ravens over the past 3 weeks. This week he faces the Packers, who rank 27^th in run defense DVOA. Smith hasn’t exactly gotten a lot of run with 17 carries and 5 targets in his past 3 games, but Tevin Coleman hasn’t gotten that much more with 22 carries and 10 targets in that span. Smith is only really in play in the deepest of leagues, but I expect him to have the best game he’s had in over a month.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Callaway’s turnaround since the first half of the season has been stark. In the first 6 games of the year, he caught just 15 of 40 targets for 186 yards and 1 TD. In the past 6, he went 18-186-2 on just 26 targets. The volume hasn’t been great, but the efficiency has been solid. The targets will come if he continues to play this well. Carolina has allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game, and I’m confident Callaway will see 6+ targets in this one. A WR4 week is a realistic hope for the rookie in this one.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): It appears likely that the Bears will get Mitch Trubisky back this week, and the Rams have struggled to contain ancillary receivers this season. They rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs other than the #1 or #2 guy (A-Rob & Gabriel). The Bears love to spread the ball around a bit, so Miller is a volatile option, but the upside is there for deeper leagues.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Phi.): Gallup finally seems to have emerged as the clear WR2 in Dallas after seeing inconsistent targets and playing time for much of the year. The Amari Cooper trade seems to have crystallized the receiver depth chart. Cooper will continue to be the lead guy, but Gallup showed last Thursday he has some upside as well. The Eagles allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game and rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #2 WR. Cooper is still the obvious play here, but Gallup is intriguing against the banged up Eagles’ secondary as well.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The Jets have allowed the 4th-most WR points per game and rank just 18^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. The deep ball is Foster’s bread and butter. His target share should increase with Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes kicked to the curb. He’s worth a stash in deeper dynasty leagues, and is worth looking at as a punt play in DFS tournaments.

WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Hamilton is more of a stash than anything at this point. With Emmanuel Sanders done for the year (and possibly part of next year), Hamilton should be on the field a lot more going forward. The Broncos have a low volume passing attack, so it would make sense to take a wait-and-see approach to figure out how the targets break down going forward.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Thomas managed to pull in 5 catches after Greg Olsen got hurt last weekend, and the Browns allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. Tight ends are averaging 75 yards per game with 4 TDs against Cleveland in the past 4 games. We saw Thomas as a starter earlier this season when Olsen was hurt, and his production was underwhelming, but there’s a chance he’s more useful in this go-round. He’s worth consideration as a bargain basement DFS option.

TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): The Buccaneers have given up 9 or more TE points in 11 of their 12 games this season. Arnold has been ascending over the past few weeks. Ben Watson has gone 2-21 on just 4 targets over the past 4 weeks while Arnold has gone 10-115-1 on 13 targets in that same span. Arnold is the guy to take a shot on here if you’re going to target the Bucs porous TE defense.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week to make sure your guys are playing. The last thing you want this week is to put up a goose egg from a player because you forgot to check his status on game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's semifinals week! Hopefully you had a bye and were able to avoid having to deal with the bizarre week 14 results to get to your semis. If you had any Rams, Kenny Golladay, Kirk Cousins, Cam Newton, Mitch Trubisky, Corey Davis, Chris Godwin, Golden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, or went up against Derrick Henry or George Kittle...hopefully you still found a way to claw your way to victory. Here's hoping week 15 gets back to normal a little bit. The lineup decisions this week are just as critical, so I'm still going to do my best to give you sound advice on what rookies can help you through to the championship. Note that the comments on Justin Jackson and Darrel Williams were written Thursday. Check the @drinkfive twitter feed for receipts on that. Let's dive in...

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): Of course you don't need my help on what to do with Saquon in season-long leagues, but I have a few tidbits for you DFS players. This isn't an ideal matchup for Barkley, so he might not be the chalk play in DFS, but the Titans have shown cracks in their run defense of late. 3 of their 4 worst performances against opposing RBs have come in the past 4 games, and Saquon has posted 4 straight 100-yard rushing performances.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): The Browns have been coughing up the 7th-most running back points per game (all ranks and point totals are in PPR scoring format), and they rank 26th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat. Lindsay had a disappointing performance in week 14 against San Francisco, but still finished as the RB17 for the week with 15.1 PPR points. He's scored 8 touchdowns in his last 7 games, and has the kind of week-winning upside that you can't leave on your bench.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): The Broncos have been solid against RBs, ranking 11th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has been remarkably consistent since taking over as the lead back in Cleveland. He's posted 14+ PPR points in 6 of his 7 starts, and found the end zone in all 6 of those as well (5 straight games with a score). His receiving usage is also trending in the right direction, and the Broncos rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Chubb is a solid RB2 this week.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. NE): This is fully contingent on James Conner missing another week...if Conner plays, you sit Samuels. If Samuels starts, he should be heavily involved in the passing game against a defense that ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs, and is just a middle of the pack defense against RBs overall. The possible absence of Ryan Switzer should make Samuels an even bigger part of the short passing game. He'll be a top-20 option if Conner is out again. Keep a close eye on the injury report on this one.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 15: @KC): Jackson disappointed many fantasy owners in week 14 after playing second fiddle to Austin Ekeler and managing a paltry 12 rushing yards on 7 carries. Ekeler is out of the way this week, and Jackson is poised for a breakout game against a Chiefs' defense that is coughing up the 2nd-most PPR points per game to RBs. The Chiefs' biggest problem has been limiting receiving production from the position. Only 2 teams have allowed more than the 85 receptions to RBs that KC has given up, and no one has given up more than the 831 receiving yards KC has surrendered to them. Jackson has the receiving skills to capitalize. He's caught 5-of-5 targets on the year for 61 yards, and while that's a small sample size, he caught 79 passes over his final two college seasons at Northwestern. Justin should be a surefire top-20 RB this week with week-winning upside. If you have him, you should probably be starting him. (Update: Jackson posted 16-58-1 on the ground and 3-27 receiving for 17.5 PPR points Thursday night)

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. NO): Moore's production has been a little uneven, but his usage has not. He's been targeted at least 8 times in 4 straight games and this week faces the defense that allows the most points per game to WRs. The Panthers will likely be throwing as a 6-point underdog, and Moore should be a high-floor WR3 in a game where the Panthers' season is pretty much on the line.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): The Bucs have been playing improved defense of late, allowing just 13 points per game to opposing QBs over their past 5 games, but 4 of those contests were at home. The road hasn't been nearly as kind to Tampa. Eli Manning is the only QB that has failed to top 20 points when hosting the Bucs. Jackson has a solid rushing floor that should give him a good chance to keep Eli on that island. Jackson is a low-end QB1 option with upside if he can ever have a productive passing game to go with his rushing.

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): Mayfield has been in a mini-slump for fantasy purposes with just 1 TD pass in each of the last 2 games after posting multiple scores in the 5 games prior. The Broncos have been solid against QBs, allowing the 12th-fewest QB points per game and allowing only 3 QBs all year to reach 20 points, but they've been struggling of late. Since their bye in week 10, the Broncos have given up an average of 355 passing yards per game and won't have their star slot corner Chris Harris Jr. in this one. Mayfield is still a dicey QB1 option, but he should be solid as a QB2 or superflex.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Detroit has had one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA. Allen has posted some impressive numbers as a runner in the past 3 weeks, helping him finish as the QB4, QB2, and QB15. He ran for at least 99 yards in each game, but I'm not sure he keeps it up this week. No team has allowed fewer QB rushing yards than the 62 Detroit has given up. They've faced Cam Newton (2 rush yards), Russell Wilson (15 yards) Dak Prescott (2 yards) and Mitch Trubisky (18 yards). Allen will likely need to increase his passing production to be useful in fantasy this week. I'm not sure he'll do that. Allen has thrown for multiple TDs just once all year, and is yet to throw for 250 yards in a game. He's shown enough upside in the past 3 weeks to be considered a low-end QB1 option in deeper leagues, but I would be really hesitant to pull the trigger this week.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Keep an eye on the injury status of Matt Breida if you're thinking of playing Wilson. Breida has to sit for Wilson to be a viable option. Wilson has handled 47 touches in the past 2 weeks with Breida sidelined, and Seattle's defense is solid but unspectacular against opposing RBs. They allow the 11th-most RB points per game. As long as Breida is out again, Wilson should be a solid flex option with a strong floor. His receiving production dipped last week, but that was because the 49ers played with a lead for most of the game. I wouldn't expect a repeat of that in week 15.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Michel's workload has remained solid even with the return of Rex Burkhead. He's had 37 carries in the past 2 games with Burkhead back, but my concern is that his receiving usage has been non-existent. His targets in the last 3 weeks have been 2, 1, and zero. This week he faces a Steelers defense that allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 7th in run defense DVOA. New England is favored on the road, so the game script should be positive, and the game has one of the higher over/unders of the week at 52, so there should be scoring opportunities for Michel. The lack of passing game usage still has me concerned enough to not claim Michel is an automatic start in this tougher matchup. He's still a viable option, just temper your expectations.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Speaking of guys who don't get much receiving work, Gus Edwards has one target all year, and is now dealing with a bit of a challenge for work from Kenneth Dixon. Dixon posted 59 yards on 8 rushes last week and vultured a TD from Edwards at the goal line. Edwards still appears to be the lead back, but the 16 carries he handled last week were the fewest he's seen since taking over as the starter. That usage still puts him in the flex conversation against the Bucs. Tampa ranks 30th in run defense DVOA, and allows 21.1 points per game to opposing RB1s. Dixon's increasing usage worries me a bit, but if you're a gambler Edwards could pay off big.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 15: @LAR): Philly should lean on the run a bit more going forward since it looks like Carson Wentz will miss the remainder of the season with a back injury. Corey Clement went on IR this week, thinning out the Eagles' backfield a little more, so Adams should continue to get plenty of work. The biggest concern here is game script. The Rams are an 11-point favorite, and outside of week 11 when he was targeted 6 times, Adams has just 2 targets all year. If the Eagles can keep this game tight, Adams could do good things. The Rams rank just 24th in run defense DVOA. Adams has value as an RB3/flex option this week, but he's risky.

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Pettis popped up on the injury report with a foot injury on Friday, but I'd still expect him to play this week. The 49ers have been dealing with a bunch of WR injuries, which have opened the door for Pettis to play a bunch. He's been targeted 7 times in 3 straight games, posting a line of 12-255-4 in those games. Marquise Goodwin also popped up on the injury report Friday. If Pettis plays and Goodwin doesn't, Pettis would be the de facto WR1. The Seahawks allow the 3rd-most points per game to opposing WR1s. Even if Goodwin plays, Pettis is an intriguing WR3 option who has shown a clear connection with Nick Mullens.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Sutton was a big letdown last week in his first game without Emmanuel Sanders on the field, but he should be in a good spot for a bounce back this week. Browns allow the 10th-most WR points per game, and almost half of the points they allow go to the opposing team's WR1 (19 out of 39.5). Sutton is a WR3/flex option in leagues with 12 or more teams.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Foster has quickly emerged as the best fantasy WR option in Buffalo. That's not really saying much, but he's cleared 90 receiving yards in 3 of his past 4 games and had a season-high 8 targets last week. With Zay Jones only in the slot about half the time, Jones should share the attention of Lions top corner Darius Slay with Foster. Even with Slay, the Lions pass defense has been no bueno. Detroit ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, 24th on throws to the opposing WR1 and 30th on throws to the WR2. Foster could be in line for another strong game, especially if the Lions are able to keep Josh Allen from running on them.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. NO): The Saints are one of the toughest matchups possible to a tight end, but Thomas has been targeted 16 times in the past 2 weeks and the TE position has been a bit of a wasteland this season. I'd play him over any other rookie TE and would start him over other borderline guys CJ Uzomah, Cameron Brate, and Austin Hooper.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Darnold's return to action went about as well as expected last week. He posted 170 yards with one score and one pick. He hasn't shown enough upside to be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. Darnold has topped 230 yards passing just twice in 10 starts, has thrown for multiple TDs in just 3 of them, and has thrown 15 interceptions on the year. Houston allows the 11th-fewest QB points per game and is tied for 8th in the league with 13 interceptions. I'm not sure I'd trust Darnold as a desperation QB2.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 15: @SF): Penny's role is to split the scraps that Chris Carson leaves behind with Mike Davis. That isn't a role you can trust in the fantasy playoffs. The 49ers allow just 7.4 PPR points per game to opposing RB2s. There is some upside for a cheap DFS tournament play, but he won't be in any of my lineups.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Freeman is no more than a TD dart throw at this point, and Cleveland allows less than 6 points per game to opposing RB2s. He's scored just 2 TDs in his past 7 games, and reached 40 rushing yards just once in that span.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Hines has scored more than 7 points just twice in the past 8 games, and the Cowboys allow just 6 PPR points per game to opposing RB2s. Hines isn't a smart bet if you're taking a chance in a DFS tournament or a really deep league.

RB Darrel Williams, KC (Wk. 15: vs. LAC): I'd be excited to see what Williams can do tonight with Spencer Ware sidelined, but I'm not convinced the Chiefs will give him the opportunity after they signed the Charknado, Charcandrick West last week. West is a player that has played for Andy Reid and the Chiefs in the past and will likely leapfrog Williams on the depth chart. Damien Williams will be the number one back for KC Thursday, and it will likely be West serving as his primary backup. Darrel Williams was stuck behind Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice at LSU, yet he still managed to post better receiving numbers and more yards per carry than Guice last year. Keep an eye on his usage against the Chargers, but there's no reason to put him in your starting lineup in any format. (Update: Darrel Williams posted 2-13 on the ground and 2-19-1 receiving for 11.2 PPR points)

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals have actually been one of the better WR defenses in the league, and they've really only been burned by WR1s. Ridley has been a boom or bust option weekly, with fewer than 10 points or more than 16 in each and every game this year. He's scored a TD in just two of the past 9 games, and this is looking like a bust week again. Julio should be a fantastic option, but Ridley is a risky flex in deep leagues at best. The Cardinals allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): Callaway gets a reasonable matchup this week with the Broncos allowing the 3rd-most points per game to opposing WR2s, but he isn't getting enough run lately to take advantage. Callaway has run 17 or fewer routes in 3 of his past 4 games and didn't make it to 3 targets in 2 of them. The Browns will benefit from not having to face Chris Harris Jr. in the slot, but Callaway plays almost exclusively on the perimeter. I'd stay away this week.

WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Hamilton could be fun in a Saturday-only DFS slate, but I'd be hard-pressed to play him in the fantasy playoffs. He had a nice game a week ago, but he has just a one-game track record and the Browns allow just 11 points per game to the slot. Sutton is a much better play than Hamilton this week.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Gallup's role has been much more defined since the Amari Cooper trade and his usage has actually increased with Coop on board, but his production hasn't really followed suit. He's averaged nearly 7 targets per game over the past 4, but averaging just 3 catches and 32 yards in that span. The Colts allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game. This isn't a week to take a chance on Gallup.

WRs Equanimeous St. Brown & Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 15: @Chi.): The Bears boast the best overall defense in the league, and Randall Cobb has regained his spot as the WR2 in Green Bay. Cobb played 44 snaps in week 14 compared to 34 for St. Brown and 30 for Valdes-Scantling. This was actually the first time that St. Brown out-snapped Valdes-Scantling all year. If you really want to roll the dice on one of these two guys, my choice would be MVS, but I wouldn't recommend using either.

WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 15: @Car.): This is a great matchup for Smith, but he's been a ghost most weeks lately. Smith has posted 3 goose eggs in his last 4 games (10-157-1 in the other). He's an intereting cheap DFS option, but it would take a massive leap of faith knowing you could very easily get a zero from him. The Panthers do rank dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR2.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 15: @Cin.): The Bengals are actually favored in this game, so the Raiders should be throwing, but Ateman hasn't topped 50 yards in a game all year and has had more than 5 targets just once in the last 4 games. The Bengals aren't a good defense, but Ateman is just too risky to trust this week.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Don't get cute here. Ryan Switzer is questionable this week, and that could lead to additional playing time for Washington, but we've seen him play increased snaps before. It hasn't resulted in increased production. Washington hasn't topped 25 receiving yards in any game this year. You'd be crazy to count on him having the best week of his season in your fantasy playoffs.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 15: @LAR): Goedert nearly had his best game of the season last week. He had a long receiving TD wiped out by a bogus offensive pass interference penalty and was still the TE8 for the week. The QB change to Nick Foles changes things for this offense though. We don't have much to go off of since Goedert has only played with Foles for two games...the first two of his career. Goedert's role has grown since then. There is a bigger sample size to look at last season with Foles. Philly's TE2 last year, Trey Burton, totaled just 4-36 on 8 targets in the 6 Foles starts last season. Goedert remains a TD dart throw, but one that I don't feel great about with Wentz sidelined.

TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 15: @NYJ): The return of Ryan Griffin makes the Texans' TE usage even messier than it was before. All 3 TEs were able to get involved last weekend, with Akins and Thomas combining for 6-71 while Griffin posted a 5-80 line. The matchup this weekend isn't nearly as giving to TEs. The Jets allow the 5th-fewest TE points per game and rank 11th in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. I'd steer clear of the whole trio this week.

TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): If I had any faith that the Ravens would use one of these guys as their primary TE, I'd feel good about playing them in this matchup. After seeing Maxx Williams score an unexpected TD last week, I don't feel good about predicting anything with this TE group. The Bucs rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends, but your guess is as good as mine on which TE will benefit from that. I can't trust any of them in the fantasy playoffs this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Rosen's rookie year could be kindly called forgettable so far. He's reached double-digit fantasy points just twice in his last 8 games and hasn't thrown a TD pass in the last 2 weeks, but I like his chances for a surprising week. I expect him to reach double-digits for the 3rd time in 9 games. Atlanta has allowed at least 14.8 QB points in every game after week 1, and they rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Rosen would be a sneaky play if you're in a tough spot at QB2. He should have one of his best games of the season.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals have spent much of this season playing from behind and have surrendered plenty of points to opposing RBs. They've been down enough that the number 2 backs frequently get in on the act, allowing 10.6 PPR points per game to the opposing RB2s. The Falcons are 8.5-point favorites this week, and Ito actually out-touched Tevin Coleman last week. Smith had his best game since week 9 last Sunday, and I think there is a pretty good chance he tops what he did last week in this one. The Cardinals allow the 4th-most RB points per game.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Miller is mostly a TD dart throw, but he may be a pretty good dart throw this week. The Packers allow the 4th-most WR points per game, and the 5th-most points per game out of the slot where Miller plays 67% of his snaps. He's had just 10 targets and totaled 6-67 in the last 4 games, but he's found the end zone twice in those games. He's scored in 6 of the 12 games he's played. If you're desperate, you could do worse than a coin flip bet for a TD against a bad defense.

WR DeAndre Carter, HOU (Wk. 15: @NYJ): Carter isn't a well-known name, but he's probably my favorite sleeper for the 2-game Saturday DFS slate. Keke Coutee has been ruled out for this game, and Carter is expected to be cleared to play. No team allows more points per game to opposing slot WRs than the Jets. Carter shouldn't be considered in season-long leagues, but he has a bunch of upside in a strong matchup if you're looking for a bargain basement WR in DFS.

WR Trent Sherfield, ARI (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Sherfield posted 5-77 on 7 targets out of the blue last week. He's clearly going to be involved going forward with Christian Kirk on IR. Atlanta ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, and the Cardinals should be throwing as 8.5-point underdogs. He's too risky to try in season-long leagues, but is another name to know as a cheap DFS option this week.

TE Anthony Firkser, TEN (Wk. 15: @NYG): Firkser isn't technically a rookie after spending last year on a practice squad, but I wanted to mention him since casual fans don't know who he is. Firkser finally gives Ryan Fitzpatrick company as a Harvard alum playing in the NFL. He's managed to haul in at least 3 catches in 4 straight games, and topped 40 receiving yards in 3 of them. Jonnu Smith, who was starting ahead of Firkser was put on IR earlier this week. This should be the first game all year where Firkser is the unquestioned TE1, and the Giants rank 24th in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. Firkser is a low-end fantasy TE1 this week.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Herndon's production has been down over the past couple weeks and Darnold's return last week didn't do anything to help, but this week's matchup is a good one. The Texans allow the 9th-most TE points per game on the year, and in the past 5 games they've given up 65+ yards and a score to the position 4 times. Herndon is more of a TE2 than TE1 for fantasy, but I like his chances to post his best game in weeks.

TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 15: @Car.): Arnold was a surprising healthy scratch last Sunday. I'm not sure if it was a disciplinary thing or what happened, but the matchup this week is juicy if he's active. The Panthers allow the 3rd-most TE points per game and Ben Watson hasn't exactly been a factor in the Saints' passing attack. If Arnold is active, he could be worth a swing in DFS tournaments.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies and helps you into your league championship. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, please feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure not to start anyone inactive. You'd hate to put up an unnecessary goose egg with your season on the line. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.