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Two weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals put up a gutsy performance defeating the San Francisco 49ers 18-15 at home while Larry Fitzgerald's son attended the state fair. Unfortunately, I watched some of this game. Now, fresh off their bye week, the Cardinals are poised to pick up their second straight victory when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. Just kidding! This Cardinals team could not beat the Chiefs if they had a million weeks to prepare!

Currently the Chiefs are sitting as 16.5 point favorites in this one. While the Browns did give them a little trouble last week in the first half keeping it within 6 points before ultimately getting blown out 37-21, Josh Rosen will suffer the same fate as Baker Mayfield. This is my clear cut pick for the week if you have the luxury of still using the Chiefs.

If you are not so lucky, I would recommend using the Chargers on the road vs. the Raiders. The team clearly quit on coach Jon Gruden last week in a touchdown-less blowout loss to the 49ers. If both those have been used I like this week as an opportunity to use an unreliable Jets team at home vs. the Bills.

Normally, I'd shy away from the Jets here as the Bills players have to see this as a rare game in which they have a chance of winning, But, with Darnold out that leaves the Jets with veteran QB Josh Mccown. The wiley vet will only have to outperform human interception machine Nathan Peterman, which means just complete more passes to your team than to your opponent. I'm just now reading Buffalo media being hopeful that freshly signed Matt Barkley will get the start. So in other words, they are hoping for a QB who doesn't know the offense to get the nod. Yikes!

Cheers,

Drink Five!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

36 Fantasy Points, Week 10's Leader

This year's fantasy football juggernaut is perhaps as unexpected as anything in the NFL. Mitchell Trubisky (yes, he gets to be called by his full name) tops the Week 10 leader board with 36 points. For the sake of argument, let's assume that future HoF'er Nick Mullens keeps his total under 36 tonight. This is the second time this season that Trubisky is the highest points scorer in a week. He also achieved this back in week 4, when he set the high water mark for any player this season at 43.46 points. Trubisky is the only QB to lead the league in points in a given week twice this season. The QB group that led the league just once is Patrick Mahomes (Wk 7), Drew Brees (Wk 3), Ben Roethlisberger (Wk 2) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Wk 1). That's pretty impressive company to beat, considering that a Bears quarterback and high fantasy ceiling have never been discussed together, ever. The only other player to lead the league in two different weeks in fantasy is James Conner, who did so in weeks 5 and 8.

249 Passing Yards

With just 249 passing yards on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes came one game short of tying Drew Brees' record for consecutive 300-yard passing games. Mahomes' streak ended at 8 games, but don't worry, he's still the league leader for passing yards and touchdowns and has a 9.0 touchdown percentage. His numbers were down this week against the Cardinals, but it didn't take a lot to beat them. His best stat from this game is that he did not throw an interception, which he had done in each of the last 5 weeks. Mahomes is still on track to throw over 5000 yards and could still get to 50 touchdowns at his current pace. This is perhaps the most impressive resume for MVP in a season with a few really top notch contenders. Mahomes will have a chance to separate himself if the Chiefs can beat the Rams this Monday in Mexico City - apparently the only good MNF matchup that we're allowed to have this season. I wonder how the crowd will react to the monstrosity that is the Booger-mobile. This is the last streak I was tracking in 2018, so let me know if there's something else out there I should be watching for.

501 Yards on Offense

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers accumulated a whopping 501 offensive yards against the Redskins on Sunday - a team that normally gives up just 324 yards per game. Given those stats, one would assume that Fitzmagic is back in full force - Ryan Fitzpatrick did have over 400 passing yards for the fourth time this year. Of course, we don't bring up stats like this because things went according to plan. The Bucs managed just 3 points, helped along the way by 4 turnovers (three of them to end long drives) and two missed field goals. Give credit, I guess, to the Washington Redskins, who are now 6-3 and are probably going to be hosting a playoff game. I don't even need to guess - just look at the remaining schedule for the Redskins, which features just two teams that have winning records. A final, weird note about the Redskins is that this team has not experienced a single lead change this year. They have either led all game or trailed after the first score, showing that this team is literally devoid of excitement.

21 TD in 6 Games

I'm willing to bet you haven't heard much about Andrew Luck's health since he attempted 121 passes in just 5 days back at the end of in weeks 4 and 5. There's a good reason, and it's that everything finally seems OK with @CaptAndrewLuck (that twitter feed is a must-follow). Andrew Luck has at least 3 TDs in the last 6 games and 21 total over that period of time. He's the 5th best QB over the last 4 weeks in fantasy and has the Colts on a 3-game winning streak. The Colts are just 4-5, but they have a good ground game, haven't given up a sack in the last 4 games and Luck is on track to throw for the most TDs in his career - all of them apparently going to tight ends. Also, nice game, Eric Ebron and your three TDs. Not a nice game, all of us who switched over to Jack Doyle once he returned from injury. The Colts could sneak into the AFC wildcard picture, or even the division picture, with two games against the Titans left to go.

50% More Offensive Touchdowns

The Bills can use this tag line when advertising their team for the rest of the season. They went into Sunday with just 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games, and increased that total by 50% with an additional 4 against the Jets. Heck, they even added a bonus defensive TD to make it a lucky 13 on the season. This was just the second game this season that the Bills did not have a turnover - the other was their Week 3 shellacking of the Vikings. The Bills also put up 451 yards of offense - their previous high water mark was just 333 - a 35% improvement! The new and improved Matt Barkley led Buffalo Bills (please, please do not give us any more Nathan Peterman) will have a bye this week before playing the Jags in week 12 and oh who cares, it's the Bills and they still stink. This is more of an indictment on the Jets, who have multiple turnovers in 8 of 10 games this year and somehow managed to lose the two games where they did not turn the ball over.

Week 11 got under way on Thursday night with a thrilling game between the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks. This one was back and forth the whole way with the Seahawks eventually squeaking one out after Mike McCarthy decided to punt on fourth and two late in the 4^th quarter. The Pack was unable to come up with a stop with their one timeout and never saw the ball again.

The schedule this week is a brutal one for making picks, with many close match ups. Also, you have the Patriots, one of the best teams, on bye as well as 4 of the worst teams in the Bills, Jets, Browns, and 49ers. If I hadn't watched the games last week my pick would have been a slam dunk choosing the Falcons at home against the Cowboys. However I did watch and the Falcons looked pathetic against the Browns, the Cowboys put a beating on the Eagles and the Titans proved they were for real vs the Pats, making the Cowboys loss to them in the previous week not look so bad.

So, facing a tough decision, I've decided to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers in their match up with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last season the Jags had the Steelers number, but this is a new year and Pitt has been rolling as of late and appear to be peaking at the right time, while the Jags are back to blaming Blake Bortles for all their woes. Only two other teams are bigger favorites than the 5.5 the Steelers are getting on the road in this one. Both of those teams have more dangerous offensive opponents. The Saints are 8.5 point favorites hosting the Eagles, and the Chargers are 7.5 point favorites hosting the Broncos (however Carson isn't a home field advantage for the Chargers).

Cheers,

Drink Five!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

14 Fantasy Points

Through Sunday, week 11's top TE scored just 14 points, and it's courtesy of old man Antonio Gates - owned in a whopping 3% of leagues. This season's volatility at the tight end position continues week after week. In the top 10 alone, we had Robert Tonyan (0% owned) at TE3, Ed Dickson (4% Owned) at TE7 and Matt Lengel (0% Owned) at TE10. Even top guys aren't guaranteed a respectable floor, as we saw Zach Ertz turn in a 1.5 point performance as the 30th best TE this week. Ertz wasn't alone - Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham all turned in scores either tied with Ertz or lower than him. I wish I knew how to see stuff like this coming - but the TE position has been so damn chaotic, it's impossible to predict what random guys will do well one week, and which ones will lay an egg. It's a position with a floor of basically nothing, and no players seem to be exempt from this. Perhaps the notion of eliminating the TE as an exclusive position isn't as crazy as it first sounded.

7 Wins in a Row

The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 and have followed it up with 7 wins in a row, becoming the first team since 1970 to go on a roll like that after such a bad start. During that streak, they've only faced two teams that were over .500 going in to the game - Miami in week 8 and Washington yesterday. Needless to say, the Texans have had it easy, and will continue to have an easy time with 4 of their last 6 games at home. Their toughest game remaining will be the Colts in week 14. The Texans are currently giving up the 6th fewest points and 7th fewest yards to opposing offenses, while keeping their offense in the top half of the league in both categories (despite the offense scoring over 23 points just twice this season).  Aside from J.J. Watt on defense, there are no real stand-outs on the Texans. Deshaun Watson, who was very impressive in 6 starts last year, has come back down to earth. He does have a few things going for him, however. First, his completion percentage is up, his yards per attempt is the same as last year, and he's throwing interceptions at a much lower rate than he was last year. His touchdown numbers have merely come back to earth - it's hard to keep throwing a TD in 9.3% of your passes, like he did last year.

27 Carries

A player getting 27 carries is usually the sign of a running back dominating the carries on their team, but this time it's a lot different. The Baltimore Ravens went into the bye week and announced that Joe Flacco was hurt - and they emerged with what seems like a completely different offense. Lamar Jackson (27 carries) and UDFA Gus Edwards (17 carries) combined for 232 yards on 44 rushes in a grand display of helping absolutely no one in fantasy football. Jackson's 27 carries broke the old QB record of 22, held by famously "awesome" QB Tim Tebow. Running the ball this many times by a QB is not a recipe for long term success, but it does go a long way to silence the talk about John Harbaugh being on the hot seat in Baltimore.  The QB situation is very muddy for the Ravens now, as it seems like Flacco will start if he's healthy, but there's no real indication what his timetable might be. I suppose it's time to abandon all hope, ye owners of Ravens wide receivers. Also, can someone please explain where the hell did Gus Edwards came from?

1-4 When Gaining 500+ Yards

The 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve strong consideration for this year's dumpster fire of a team. Since their Fitzmagical start, they've just won one game - an OT game against the Browns in Week 7. Throughout the course of the season, the Bucs have racked up the most yards on offense in the league and they are on pace to throw for 5993 yards, which would be a record if just one person threw all those passes. Instead, they've had a QB shuffle all season, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combining for 23 picks through 10 games. With all those turnovers, it's no wonder that the Bucs are giving up the most points in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. The turnovers are also the reason that they've only won 1 of their 5 games where they gained over 500 yards.  The defense is also contributing fuel to the fire, giving up a touchdown on 88.9% of their opponent's red zone trips. This team just has some of the most extreme stats in the league, and clearly can't get their shit together - however it's great fun for those of us who have a Bucs WR on our fantasy team.

604 Points

The Saints are on pace to score over 600 points this season and could approach or even break the 2013 Denver Broncos record of 606. This is all led by Drew Brees having one of his best seasons ever. He currently leads the league in completion percentage at 76.9%, as well as interceptions with just 1. The completion percentage is set to smash his previous record (and NFL record) of 72.0%, which he set just last year. In fact, Brees has 9 of the top 40 NFL passing seasons by completion percentage, including 2018. It's absurd that this man hasn't won an MVP award, but that just goes to show the talent across the rest of the league. As of Monday, before the epic MNF matchup, Patrick Mahomes led the MVP odds at -125, with Brees trailing him closely at +150. That's good money for Brees, if you ask me. I think the voters will give Brees a lifetime achievement award this season, especially if his team can lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, which is a real possibility given their remaining schedule.