Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
14.6 Yards per Carry
Isaiah Crowell (CAW!!!) turned in the best rushing yards total for anyone on the season with a whopping 219 yards. What's more impressive is that he reached that total on just 15 carries, good for a 14.6 yards each time he was handed the ball. As stated by our very own Mike Mocerino just two weeks ago on our podcast, Crowell is an odd-week player. It's now...a trend? In weeks 1, 3 and 5, Crowell has 68.4 points thanks to 355 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In weeks 2 and 4, he's got a whopping 4.20 points. For now, Mike's Nostradamus-like prediction of Crowell's season has held true and is a trend that I'll be considering when setting my lineup on at least one team. Crowell finds himself as the 8th best RB on the season in total fantasy points. If you take the average of just his odd week games, he's 3rd, behind only Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley.
2 Turnovers, 28.68 Fantasy Points
Aaron Rodgers had one of the most unique games of his career in Detroit on Sunday. In the first half, all the Packers drives either ended on an Aaron Rodgers fumble, or a Mason Crosby missed field goal. Rodgers would finish the game with his best stat line of the season, throwing for 442 yards and 3 TDs and was the QB2 this week (so far) just behind Tom Brady. Unfortunately for Rodgers, the Packers just can't quit Mason Crosby, who missed 4 field goal attempts and his lone extra point try. That's 13 points in a game that the Packers lost by 8, if anyone's counting. Crosby did kick a 41 yard FG as the game ended, so I guess he's warmed up for next week. Given the state of kicking in the NFL this year, Crosby's job is assured through at least next week, but I have to at least wonder if the Packers might go for it on 4th and medium a bit more now, considering that no-man's land seems to be expanding for their kicker.
5 Straight 100-yard Games
Adam Thielen has set a league record by starting the season with 5 straight games with at least 100 receiving yards. This amazing consistency (with a brand new QB) has him as the #1 WR in standard scoring, just above Cooper Kupp. That's right, Cooper Kupp is the #2 overall WR through 5 weeks of the NFL. They say that the white WRs are gritty, maybe they have the emergence of Gritty to thank for this success. Thielen's 13 targets per game is tied with Antonio Brown for the most on the season. I expect his production to continue considering the Vikings running game is non-existent so far this season. At 2, Kupp is maintaining his strong fantasy performances by finding the end zone 5 times this year. In fact, he only has one game where he has not scored a TD. The Rams continue to roll, the Vikings are finding an offensive groove, and both of these WRs will have the opportunity to turn in career years if they can keep this up.
9 TDs on the Season
Todd Gurley is steamrolling through all the teams he has played this season, finding the end zone 9 times in just 5 games. He's averaging almost 25 points per game and has amazing consistency. His low total was in week 3 where he had 19.6 points. It feels nice when a consensus #1 overall pick can play like it. Right behind him at the top is Alvin Kamara, who hasn't even played this week, but is still the #2 overall RB. These two guys are in a class of their own and are on offenses that are total juggernauts. If Gurley can keep up this pace, he will have over 2000 yards from scrimmage and 28 TDs on the year. That's a bit of a stretch to extrapolate that over just 5 games, but what else is this column for? While we're at it, Jared Goff is going to throw for 5500 yards and 38 TDs. This is fun!
22 Points for the D/ST
A pair of teams reached 22 points for the defense and special teams in week 5. The Cincinnati Bengals scored twice on defense in their impressive comeback against the Dolphins. The Kansas City Chiefs defense finally found their way to the field on the same day as their offense. The picked off Blake Bortles 4 times, sacked him 5 times and scored a TD en route to putting up 22 fantasy points. An honorable mention goes to the Arizona Cardinals, putting up 21 fantasy points in their first victory of the season. I don't know what conclusions to draw from all of this, as I find D/STs (and kickers) to be very chaotic and unpredictable. Backing up my claim is the fact that the top 5 D/STs this week are all owned by less than 50% of Yahoo teams. The Rams, Jags and Eagles all combined for 10 points this week. Streamers rejoice!
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
3 Hot WR Pickups This Week
So far, week 6 has seen 4 WRs go over 20 points. We all watched Tyreek Hill go off for three scores on Sunday night, but there were three surprises Sunday afternoon that will be popular waiver pickups tomorrow. Albert Wilson, Tyrell Williams and Cole Beasley all put up at least 22 points while helping their teams to wins. All three players are currently owned in no more than 10% of Yahoo leagues. For Wilson, this is his third time in double digits on the season and is actually the WR16 so far this year. He was gaining more targets under Tannehill, and then had a season high of 9 with backup QB Brock Osweiler in on Sunday, so Wilson is definitely trending in the right direction. Williams and Beasley are a different story. Between them, their previous high was Beasley's 7.3 points in week 1. Williams seems to get 3-4 receptions per week, so he is a dart throw as a replacement. Beasley's usage is chaotic, and I still don't know what to make of the Cowboys offense. Hopefully you just have Tyreek Hill on your team and you're not so worried.
2 Games over 30 Points
Speaking of the best WR in fantasy football this year, Tyreek Hill now has two games north of the 30 point mark and he is now the #1 standard and #2 PPR scoring at his position. Hill as a wide receiver is what I imagine Devin Hester would have looked like, if he was any good at playing the position. Hill now has 27 TDs (both returning and receiving) in 37 games - 19 of those scores are 30 yards or longer. An exciting player, he is feast or famine for your fantasy team. Going into this week, he had turned in three straight performances of under 10 points. Despite this chaos (or maybe because he creates it), Hill is thriving and getting better as a WR. He's established himself as a red zone target for Patrick Mahomes, with a pair of 1-yard TDs on the season so far. He's also on pace for 90 receptions this year, 15 more than the career high he set last season. If Hill and Mahomes stay healthy, this is going to be a hell of a fantasy football combo for quite a while.
19.60 Fantasy Points
Hey, that's a pretty good performance from a running back. Should be good for top 10 any week, maybe top 5. The thing about that specific point total is that it represents the floor on the season for Todd Gurley. Gurley's season is so good that he's second only to Patrick Mahomes in total fantasy points. Gurley is averaging 25.8 points per week, more than 3 points per game higher than the RB2, Melvin Gordon. In fact, Gordon has 3 games where he didn't even reach Gurley's floor - and Gordon's floor is 14.40 points this year, also incredible! What I'm getting at is that great running backs seem to be in abundance in Los Angeles this year. Gurley is now leading the league with 11 TDs on the season - 9 rushing and 2 in the air. His 9 on the ground are just 4 behind his league leading 13 last season. He's scored at least 1 TD every game this season. This is just an incredible performance from the preseason #1 draft pick.
5 Consecutive 300+ Yard Games
Yeah, I've mentioned him several times already, but he deserves his own entry, doesn't he? Patrick Mahomes has now thrown for over 300 yards in his last 5 games. The game he didn't throw for that many, he just had 4 TDs. Mahomes is averaging 27 fantasy points per game and sports an 18:4 touchdown to interception ratio. Mahomes' streak of 5 games at 300+ yards is impressive, but he's got a long way to go to match Drew Brees' mark of 9 games, which he reached twice. Another impressive streak is Adam Thielen going for over 100 yards in 6 straight games to start the season. This is now just one game shy of matching the record for consecutive 100 yard games to start the season. He's just two games behind Calvin Johnson's all time mark of 8 straight games with 100 yards. Thielen is the WR2 on the season, and amazingly consistent as all his games are between 10.5 and 19 points.
27 Fantasy Points - From a Kicker!
Congrats to Jets kicker Jason Myers, for making 7/7 FGs and 3/3 XPs on his way to outscoring the Titans (0), Raiders (3), Jaguars (7) and Bills (13) combined! Two other kickers passed the 20 fantasy point mark on Sunday, Stephen Gostkowski and Cowboys kicker Brett Maher. Maher is leading all kickers with an average of 13 points per game over his last 4 games. The best part is that he's only owned in 6% of Yahoo leagues. There were some interesting D/ST performances as well. We saw the Bears finally stumble, and the Ravens score the cleanest 21 points I can think of. They had 11 sacks (ELEVEN!) and got 10 points for completing the shutout, something the Raiders had to take away from the Seahawks. At least the Raiders prevented the fine people of London from seeing yet another shutout.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it past the halfway point of the regular season. By now you should have a pretty good idea of where your team stands. Are you a contender? Or are you just hoping to squeak into the playoffs and hope for the best? This is the time of year when unlikely players start to make waves due to injuries and attrition, and a lot of the time those unlikely fantasy heroes are rookies. The Carlos Hyde trade has put another rookie on the map as Nick Chubb becomes the every-week starter in Cleveland. Peyton Barber’s injury may have opened up more playing time for Ronald Jones II. Ted Ginn’s trip to IR could pave the way for Tre’Quan Smith to be a stud down the stretch. I’m sure there will be others as well. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop in week 8…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Of course you’re going to start Barkley in all season-long formats this week. He’s been the number 2 fantasy RB this season (all scoring and rankings referenced are in PPR format), but this may not be the best week to fire him up in DFS tournaments. Saquon did finish as the RB5 in his first game without 100 scrimmage yards, but Washington has allowed the 10th fewest RB points per game this year and ranks 4th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat on throws to opposing backs. While Saquon is capable of overcoming a less than tempting matchup, he’s not the chalk DFS play this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Sea.): Kerryon put on a show last Sunday in Miami, but until Matt Patricia and the Lions realize that LeGarrette Blount shouldn’t be getting 10 carries per game, Johnson will remain a boom-or-bust RB2 option each week. After the monster rushing game Kerryon posted in week 7, I’m optimistic Detroit will start to unleash him a bit more. He does get a decent matchup against a middling Seattle run defense. The Seahawks rank 15th at limiting opposing RB points on a per game basis, and rank 12th in run defense DVOA. It would be hard to sit him after what he did last weekend even if it is a bit of point chasing.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): Lindsay could be poised for a big game if teammate and fellow rookie Royce Freeman is unable to suit up this week, which seems a likely scenario. The Chiefs allow the 2nd-most RB points per game and rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Even if Freeman plays, the game script will likely be to Lindsay’s advantage with Kansas City a 10-point favorite. I like Lindsay as a solid RB2 this week, and he has legit RB1 upside if Freeman’s high-ankle sprain keeps him sidelined.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): The Steelers have been playing better pass defense of late, but they still rank just 20th in pass defense DVOA on the season. Mayfield has been a bit turnover prone since taking the starting gig, but he’s still finished as the QB15, QB21 and QB6 in the past 3 weeks. He’ll be a borderline QB2 in super-flex and 2 quarterback leagues once again in this one.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Chubb’s increased role should make him a sure-fire starter in most formats, but the matchup this week is a tough one. The Steelers allow the 2nd-fewest RB fantasy points per game, and the Steelers are a touchdown favorite. If game-script keeps the Browns throwing, it’ll be Duke Johnson who benefits most in the Cleveland backfield. The Steelers are the only team in the league that hasn’t allowed an opposing backfield to get to 20 PPR points in a game all year.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): As mentioned above with Phillip Lindsay, Freeman is nursing an ankle injury that may sideline him in a prime matchup. If he’s able to play, he’ll be an intriguing flex option against the team that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA, but game script won’t play in his favor with Denver a heavy underdog. Keep a close eye on the injury updates Sunday to confirm he’s active if you’re considering starting Royce.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Kirk remains a decent flex option for deeper leagues this week. He’s averaging 4.6 catches and 66.4 receiving yards per game in his past 5, and he posted 3-85-1 in the first meeting with San Francisco. He’s clearly Josh Rosen’s favorite target in the passing game, and the 49ers rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Rosen is one of just 2 quarterbacks all year to finish lower than QB13 when facing the 49ers. The matchup is good, and I’m confident Rosen will eventually get things together, but you just can’t bank on a productive game from Rosen in any matchup. He’s no more than a QB2 in a league where you have no other options.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Chi.): Darnold hasn’t shown enough upside consistently to be trusted in any format this week. You could roll the dice in a 2-QB league, but Darnold and the Jets average the 6th-fewest passing yards and the 4th-lowest QB rating in the league. The Bears’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Chicago ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA and have are in the top-10 in the league at limiting QB rating.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 8: @Buf.): This would be a great spot to use Michel if he were fully healthy. The Patriots are a 2-touchdown favorite and the Bills are allowing the 9th-most RB points per game. Sony seems to have avoided any sort of serious damage despite his injury looking bad when it happened, but I’d still be surprised if he were able to play this week. Even if he does, I’d expect his work to be limited since the Pats probably won’t need him to get a win this week. Michel will play a big role down the stretch, and I don’t think New England wants to risk his health in a game they should win easily.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 8: @Oak.): With Marlon Mack storming onto the scene over the last two weeks, Hines and Wilkins have taken a back seat. They did see some work late in a blowout win over Jacksonville last week, but Mack appears to be the clear lead back for now. Hines does have some upside in deep PPR leagues, but his pass-catching role has been diminished lately. He averaged nearly 6 catches per game in the first 5 weeks, and has just 3 total receptions in the past 2.
RB Ronald Jones II, TB (Wk. 8: @Cin.): Even if Barber does sit the week out, the Buccaneers have struggled mightily to run the ball, and RoJo likely will have to contend with Jacquizz Rodgers for 3rd-down work. Jones has averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry for the season, and Barber wasn’t much better with less than 3.5 per carry.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Moore is still just a secondary option for the Panthers’ offense, and Baltimore has allowed the 3rd-fewest WR points per game. DJ has been more involved lately, but this isn’t the best week to roll the dice on a spike in production.
WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 8: @LAR): With Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison both on track to play this week, the pair of rookie receivers should be relegated to backup duty once again. Valdes-Scantling does have WR3 upside this week if either Cobb or Allison sits again.
WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): Chark got a bit more run last Sunday than we’ve seen from him this year, but that came in a blowout loss to the Colts. It also likely helped Chark that the team turned to fellow second-stringer Cody Kessler at QB during the game. The Eagles are a vulnerable pass defense, but I’d still expect Chark to go back to his normal bench role. DJ is a shoot the moon DFS tournament play at best.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 8: @Jax.): Goedert had a strong showing in week 6 with a 4-43-1 line, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance with the Jaguars allowing the 2nd-fewest TE points per game. With Ertz at the top of the target pecking order, there won’t be enough to go around for Goedert in this one.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Gesicki had a reasonable performance in week 6 with a 3-44 line. He out-produced Nick O’Leary in the game, but played just 16 offensive snaps compared to 39 for O’Leary. Until that changes Gesicki remains an un-startable option.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 8: @Car.): The Ravens’ tight end group has proven to be a muddled mess all season. No TE played even 50% of the week 7 snaps for Baltimore. Andrews played just 38%, and Hurst played an even more paltry 26%. Those aren’t useful snap counts.
Rookies on Byes: RB Ito Smith, ATL, WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, WR Michael Gallup, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 8: @Min.): I’d have a lot more faith in Smith this week if he had a better matchup. The Vikings have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game, which is incredible considering they gave up an astounding 83.9 to the Rams’ receivers. Smith has established himself as the Saints’ WR2 with Ted Ginn on IR, and that’s a fantasy role with lots of upside as long as Drew Brees is under center. He didn’t post a huge game last weekend, but his 6 targets were 6 more than Cam Meredith saw. At the very least, Tre’Quan should be rostered in all formats.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Miller was targeted 7 times in his 2nd game back from a shoulder injury, and the Jets allow the 5th-most WR points per game. I don’t expect Trubisky to throw 50 times again this week, so Miller is more of a DFS dart throw than a season-long option, but the fact that he got more opportunity than Taylor Gabriel last Sunday is a promising sign.
WRs Antonio Callaway & Damion Ratley, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): The Steelers are a touchdown favorite, and are allowing the 6th-most WR points per game. Jarvis Landry isn’t going to score all the fantasy points from this group, which means one of this duo should have a better than expected day. Callaway has been playing more snaps and getting more opportunity, but Ratley has been more efficient with his opportunities. Callaway’s blazing speed gives him the higher level of upside.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): This is a decent opportunity for Sutton to be an intriguing DFS dart throw. Denver will be throwing, and Sutton has been playing nearly as much as Demaryius Thomas lately. The Chiefs are allowing the 13th-most WR points per game. Sutton is hard to trust in season-long leagues, but you can pick your spots to try him in DFS, and this is one of those spots where he’s worth considering.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions that involve rookies as we get deeper into these pivotal weeks. Keep an eye on the injury report to see what happens with Peyton Barber, Sony Michel and Royce Freeman, and anyone else on your teams that is nicked up right now. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to harass me about any of the info above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Here’s hoping the first 6 weeks of the season have treated you better than they have Devonta Freeman, Marcus Mariota, and the entire Arizona Cardinals team. Week 6 saw a couple of promising rookies come back to earth a bit as Nyheim Hines, Calvin Ridley, and Keke Coutee all saw dips in production, and both receivers suffered injuries as well. Both are likely to play this week, but it’s a setback nonetheless. We’re getting closer to the part of the season where unexpected rookies start to take on bigger roles. We’re also getting into the serious bye weeks with some high-powered offenses taking week 7 off – Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Are there rookies who can help you fill in? Is this the week we finally start to see something from Nick Chubb, Mike Gesicki, or Ronald Jones? Let’s dive into week 7 and discuss…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 7: @Atl.): Of course Barkley is an every-week starter at this point as the number 3 fantasy running back on the year (all ranks and point totals are in PPR scoring), but he should be worth his lofty price tag in DFS lineups this Sunday. The Falcons have allowed the most RB catches on the year, and the 2nd-most RB receiving yards. They also allow the 3rd-most fantasy points to the position. This is probably the best matchup Barkley will get all season.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 7: @Chi.): The matchup is a tough one for Michel this week. The Bears rank 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, but Sony and the Pats are on too much of a roll to hide from a tough matchup. Sony has averaged 105 rushing yards per game and found the end zone 4 times in the last 3 weeks. Even if he doesn’t match that kind of output this week, he should be a solid RB2 in week 7.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Arizona has been gouged by opposing backs, allowing the 2nd-most points to the position per game. Lindsay’s receiving floor makes him the safer and more attractive play between he and fellow rookie Royce Freeman. There is upside there for both guys this week, but I’d lean Lindsay if you have both. With the number of byes this week, you’d have a hard time convincing me Lindsay isn’t a top-20 RB play this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 7: @TB): The Bucs haven’t met a QB that they could hold under 330 passing yards yet, and only one that they’ve held below 3 passing scores. They’ve allowed more QB fantasy points per game than any other team and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Mayfield has been less efficient than I’d like and has turned the ball over a bunch, but this matchup gives him big upside. I dare you not to start him in a 2-QB league this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 7: @Mia.): This is about as good a matchup as Kerryon has had all year. I’d be listing him as a back to start if I had any faith that the Lions would commit to getting him the ball. The Dolphins allow the 5th-most RB points per game, and the Lions should be in a positive game script as a 3-point road favorite. Miami is vulnerable to receiving backs, so Theo Riddick could be in line for a nice flex-worthy game as well, but Kerryon should be right on the cusp of an RB2 this week assuming the touches are there.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 7: @Ari.): As I mentioned with Phillip Lindsay, the Cardinals are bad at defending running backs. The Cardinals have allowed 8 rushing scores on the year and have coughed up 140+ rushing yards to the position in 3 straight weeks. While I like Lindsay a little better this week due to his receiving floor, Freeman has enough upside to be a solid flex play this week.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): Kirk is quickly building a rapport with fellow rookie Josh Rosen, but he gets a reasonably tough matchup this week. There’s a low floor for everyone in this passing game, but Kirk has caught for 77+ yards in 3 of the last 4 weeks. That’s at least flex-worthy in a week with some top talent on byes.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 7: vs. NYG): Ridley’s game was cut short last week due to an injury. The TDs have dried up a little bit over the last couple games, but that upside that we’ve seen keeps him in the flex/WR3 discussion this week. Only Jacksonville allows fewer WR points per game than the Giants, but this game has the 2nd-highest over/under of the week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): Only 2 quarterbacks have thrown for multiple TDs against this Broncos’ defense on the year, and Denver ranks 8th in the league in pass defense DVOA. Rosen is averaging just 10.2 fantasy points per game through 3 starts. This isn’t a good week to count on that improving.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 7: @TB): You know the deal here. He just isn’t getting enough opportunity to be useful. He carried just 3 times last week.
RB Ronald Jones, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Jones is finally starting to see a little bit of playing time and gets a favorable matchup this week, but played just 12 snaps total and saw 4 touches last week. He’s not ready for primetime just yet.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 7: @Ari.): If Patrick Peterson would just follow Emmanuel Sanders into the slot, there might be some legit opportunity for Sutton this week. Instead, Peterson will likely be blanketing Demaryius Thomas while the Cards let Sanders have his way in the slot. Sutton remains just a DFS dart throw.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Coutee is working through a hamstring injury, which saps his biggest asset – his speed. Deshaun Watson is also a bit banged up and they face a Jaguars’ defense that allows the fewest points in the league to opposing WRs. I’d expect a performance closer to last week from Coutee (3-33) rather than the 17 catches he put up the 2 weeks before.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. NE): The Bears’ passing attack has broken out a bit over the past couple weeks, but Miller is yet to top 35 yards or 5 targets in a game. He’s no more than a DFS tournament punt play for the time being.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): Goedert gets a decent matchup this week, but as I’ve noted in this column in previous weeks, his role is nearly non-existent with Alshon Jeffery back. Two targets a week isn’t going to result in usable stat lines.
TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. NO): The tight end position is heavily utilized in the Ravens’ offense, but there are too many guys involved to trust any of them. Andrews seems to have the most receiving upside of the quartet, but he and Hurst each played 20 snaps or less last weekend. Until someone really separates himself, there isn’t much use for these guys.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Gesicki has seemingly been passed on the depth chart by Nick O’Leary. Yikes.
Rookies on Byes: RB Rashaad Penny, SEA, WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown, GB, WR James Washington, PIT
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): Darnold has actually been a top-15 QB in each of the past 2 weeks, and the Vikings have quietly been struggling to defend the pass. Minnesota ranks just 25th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 8th-most QB points per game. You could do worse than Darnold as a QB2 this week or as a cheap DFS tournament option at QB in a week with no Big Ben, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 7: vs. NYG): Devonta Freeman was placed on IR this week, and Ito actually out-touched Tevin Coleman last week. The Giants rank just 22nd in run defense DVOA, and Atlanta is a 5.5-point favorite this week. I like Ito as a flex play in deep leagues where you’re looking for a replacement option. He’s found the end zone in 3 straight. That streak will eventually end, but he’s got nice upside for week 7.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Hines’s snap count saw a pretty big dip with Marlon Mack back in the lineup last weekend, but he still played more snaps than the aforementioned Mack. The Bills have been solid at defending RBs, but they rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing backs. Hines is the best receiving RB on the team. He might see his production bounce back a bit this week in PPR leagues.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 7: @Phi.): Moore has now seen solid production in back-to-back weeks (minus the 2 fumbles last week). He’s posted 4-49 with an 18-yard run, and 4-59 with an 18-yard run in the past 2 contests. The Eagles allow the 7th-most WR points per game. Moore hasn’t been consistent enough this year to warrant more than a flex play in the deepest of leagues or in DFS tournaments, but if he continues to progress you’ll be using him in normal 12-team leagues before you know it.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 7: @TB): Callaway saw his snaps and targets return last week, but still without the production. He turned 72 offensive snaps and 10 targets into just 2 catches for 9 yards. If he’s ever going to get it going now is the time. The Bucs allow the 2nd-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. He’s no more than a cheap DFS tournament play, but this could be the week where he finally puts something together.
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Smith’s Monday night outburst before the team’s bye may have seemed like a one-time fluke, but it looks like Ted Ginn may be out again this week. He isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. Smith played about two-thirds of the offensive snaps with Ginn sidelined in week 5. If that repeats itself here, Tre’Quan is an intriguing DFS tournament play against a Ravens’ defense that has hardly been a shutdown unit against competent passing attacks.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher rookie lineup decisions this week. Keep an eye on the injury report this week. There are plenty of rookies dealing with their own injuries, and a few others who could be impacted by injuries to teammates like Tre’Quan and Ito Smith. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.