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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was a wild one around the NFL with some stunning upsets, most of which involved the NFC North. More importantly, we finally started to see a bigger chunk of the rookie class making their presence felt. Calvin Ridley, Kerryon Johnson, Josh Allen, Christian Kirk, Dallas Goedert and Baker Mayfield all had breakout games, and Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman stayed productive as well. We’ve also arrived at the Josh Rosen era in the desert. The rookie crop will continue to make a larger impact as the season rolls on, whether through improvement or attrition. It’s going to get harder each week to decide which rookies to take a chance on, so it’s a good thing I’m here to help sort it out. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 4.

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. NO): Saquon continues to demonstrate week in and week out that he’s a must start every week. The Giants’ offense may not be great, but he’s part of a very select group when it comes to usage, and that isn’t going to change barring injury. He’s an RB1 until further notice, and the Saints’ D is nothing to be afraid of this week.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): The Chiefs have been really impressive through 3 games overall, but the defense has been less than stellar. While Freeman has been a bit touchdown-dependent, there should be plenty of chances for the Broncos to get into scoring territory. Don’t be stunned if Freeman finds the end zone more than once. Game script might have the Broncos throwing more than they’d like, but that kind of scoring upside makes Royce a solid RB2 option in 12-team leagues.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Kerryon became the first Lions’ running back since Reggie Bush to top 100 yards in a game last week, and while he’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate the feat this week, his performance should at least earn him more opportunities. The Cowboys, defense isn’t exactly stingy, but the offense slows the game down a ton and limits the number of plays for the opposing offense. The Lions are still a pass-happy offense at heart, so the slow down likely means limited work for Johnson. Still, the rookie should be a solid bet for 60-70 yards from scrimmage and a potential TD.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): Michel dominated the running back carries for New England on Sunday night as Rex Burkhead surprisingly didn’t have a single carry. The results were mixed, with Sony flashing solid skill on several runs and going nowhere on several others. At the end of the day, the usage was promising, and the production should get better as the Pats’ offense finds its footing. He’s worth taking a chance on again this week in a matchup with Miami, who has allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game (all rankings and point totals based on PPR scoring).

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Ridley put on a show last Sunday, but don’t get too enamored with the TD barrage he unleashed on the Saints. The pendulum will eventually swing back to Julio as defenses start to pay more attention to Ridley. The Bengals have been a much better pass defense thus far than the Saints, and I’d be surprised if they let Ridley get going the way he did last week again. This might be a week to target Julio in DFS lineups. As for Ridley, it’ll be hard to sit a player with the upside he’s shown over the past couple weeks. If you believe in the talent, keep starting him. I’d at least pause and look at my other options if I had solid other choices. At the very least, Ridley has demonstrated that it is possible for a prominent 1^st round rookie WR to start his career fast.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Kirk was heavily featured for the first time in week 3 posting a 7-90 line on 8 targets, and there is a decent chance it happens again this week as Larry Fitzgerald fights through a hamstring issue. There is some risk here with a new starting quarterback, but I believe the switch to Josh Rosen makes the Cardinals’ offense better, not worse, and Kirk was targeted 3 times in Rosen’s 2 possessions at QB. Kirk is a flex option in deeper PPR leagues.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 4: @GB): Allen is coming off his best day as a pro, a dazzling performance against the vaunted Vikings’ defense where he scored twice on the ground and once through the air in an emphatic victory. The win, however, included a bit of good fortune and good defense early on that staked the Bills to an early lead. Minnesota extended Buffalo’s first scoring drive with a late hit penalty on a 3^rd-down sack. Then Kirk Cousins handed the Bills the ball deep in Vikes territory with two bad fumbles where he just didn’t feel the pressure coming. I don’t expect the same kind of perfect start at Lambeau. There is a chance that Allen does some stat-padding if the Bills fall behind in this one, but I wouldn’t trust him as more than a low-end QB2. The Packers will be playing angry coming off a disappointing loss last week, and they won’t sleep on the Bills like Minnesota did.

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Rosen has officially been announced as the starter moving forward, and it hopefully will jumpstart the Cards’ offense. I’m hesitant to put much faith in him this week against a Seahawks’ defense that has been playing surprisingly well despite a lot of roster turnover. The ‘Hawks rank 4^th in the league in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’ll be watching Rosen closely this week, but he should only be started if you’re desperate in a 2-QB league.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Darnold has posted back-to-back shaky performances after a strong NFL debut, and now he gets to face one of the most feared secondaries in the league. The Jaguars have allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game and will make it a long Sunday for Darnold.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Lindsay was a disappointment last week after being ejected for throwing a punch on Sunday. It may have opened the door for Devontae Booker to push his way back into a role in the offense, and Lindsay might see some reduced playing time as a result of his transgression. There’s still a chance that the rookie goes right back to putting up 100 scrimmage yards this week, but I’d be cautious about trotting him out there in lineups this week.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): Penny seemed to be working his way into a big role, but that all changed in week 3 as Chris Carson tallied over 30 carries. Penny is clearly relegated to the second string again, and until we know that’s changed you just can’t trust him in lineups.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Chubb’s time seemed to be on the horizon as Carlos Hyde struggled with his efficiency in the first 2 weeks, but Hyde took a big step forward in week 3. The veteran back posted his best game as a Brown and likely bought himself at least a couple more weeks as Cleveland’s clear lead back. Chubb will continue to spell Hyde for the time being, but he isn’t getting enough work to be useful in fantasy right now.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Adams looks like the next man up in the Eagles’ backfield group with Jay Ajayi sidelined, but he’s not worth trusting in fantasy yet. He carried just 6 times in week 3 and wasn’t targeted. There’s a chance that Ajayi returns this week, which would render Adams totally useless. If Ajayi sits, 6-8 touches feels like the most you can hope for.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Smith will continue to see some work to keep Tevin Coleman fresh as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but not enough of it. Smith handled just 5 touches last week to 17 for Coleman. That kind of work gives him just enough opportunity to flash his skills without being useful in fantasy.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Washington has seen much more playing time over the last couple games than he did week 1, but it hasn’t resulted in big production. The Ravens aren’t likely to be the team he breaks out against. Baltimore ranks 6^th in the league in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed just 10 catches to WRs per game, and the vast majority of those will go to JuJu and Antonio Brown.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Gallup’s targets have climbed from 1 to 2 to 4 in the first 3 games of the year, but he’s caught just 1 pass each week. He also was on the wrong side of a highlight-reel interception by Earl Thomas after Gallup couldn’t hang on to the ball. His usage is trending up, but his production is not. Keep waiting on Gallup.

TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): The Seahawks finally got a chance to play from ahead in week 3, and Will Dissly’s production disappeared as a result. Seattle is a 3-point favorite on the road this weekend, and it’s hard to count on him to return to productive ways if they do in fact play from in front. The TE position has been a bit desolate this year, but there are probably better options you can find this week.

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 4: @NE): Gesicki posted his best game as a pro last Sunday, but it’s going to take a bit more than 3 catches for 31 yards for me to buy into the Penn State alum. He was targeted just 3 times against Oakland and had just 1 catch prior to last Sunday.

TE Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 4: @Ind.): The Colts are an inviting tight end matchup, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position and at least 57 yards each week, but Akins has totaled just 5-50-0 in 3 weeks.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): If you play in a 2-QB league and have Cam Newton or Alex Smith as one of your weekly starters, Baker could make for a nice bye week fill-in. He didn’t post a TD in his debut, but he looked fantastic in leading the Browns to just their second win since 2015. The Raiders rank just 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and I don’t think they have quite enough film on Baker to be able to shut him down this week. I’m excited to see what he does for an encore.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Hou.): Marlon Mack’s status is still up in the air for this week, and Hines has shown himself to be the only other Colts’ back worth considering. Jordan Wilkins hasn’t really made much happen with his limited opportunity, but Hines has shown himself to be a useful receiver out of the backfield. It would help him if Andrew Luck gets back the ability to push the ball down the field to create more space for screens and other short passes, but Hines has the athleticism to make a big play happen at any time. That explosiveness makes him an intriguing punt option in DFS tournaments.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Callaway was a letdown last week, but he was a letdown that was targeted 10 times. If that volume continues, it’s only a matter of time until he has that breakout game. Baker Mayfield’s accuracy and quick decision-making should open up the Cleveland offense a bit, and make Callaway even more of a threat. If he’s still available in your league, you should rectify that. He has solid upside in week 4 against a poor Oakland secondary.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): This week is a good one to take a chance on Sutton in DFS tournaments or if you’re desperate for a flex option in deeper leagues. The Chiefs are heavy favorites and lack much of a pass defense. If Denver is chasing points, Sutton is going to see a solid number of targets against the defense. KC is allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game so far.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Much like Sutton above, Miller is going to face a team with a lackluster defense and explosive offense. The Bears aren’t a team that’s likely to be involved in a shootout, but if you expect Fitzmagic to continue this week, Miller will have a chance to put up a solid day as the Bears try to keep pace. He’s worth a dice roll as a cheap DFS tournament play. He left last Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury, but posted that he was fine on twitter afterward.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Goedert may have been the most surprising rookie performance of last weekend. He managed to out-target and out-produce Zach Ertz in the return of QB Carson Wentz. Wentz’s affinity for his tight ends is well known, so I’d look for Goedert to remain a big part of the offense at least until Alshon Jeffery returns. The Titans have allowed the fewest TE points per game, but they have yet to face a decent tight end. Goedert is an interesting DFS tournament option this week.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 4: @Pit.): The Steelers have been absolutely shredded by tight ends each of the last 2 weeks, and Andrews is averaging just over 8 points per game (PPR). He’s still splitting work with Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams (at least until Hayden Hurst returns), but he is a decent DFS dart throw again this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you aren’t starting any injured players come game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) and let me know. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was an exciting one, and one that went much more according to plan than week 3. Fitzmagic may have died for good, Corey Davis finally had the breakout game we’ve been waiting for, and Patrick Mahomes saw his legend grow after an incredible left-handed throw helped the Chiefs to a come from behind win on Monday night. It was an exciting week for some rookies as well. Keke Coutee burst onto the scene with a 100-yard day in his NFL debut, Nick Chubb found the end zone twice, and Sony Michel posted 100 rushing yards for the first time. It wasn’t as fruitful a day for the rookie QBs, as all 4 came away with L’s in week 4. Baker Mayfield turned the ball over 4 times, and he still probably played better than Josh Allen. The fun continues this week, so let’s take a look at what to expect in week 5…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 5: @Car.): Barkley has shown himself to be a locked-in RB1 every week regardless of opponent. He’s not an ideal DFS option this week facing a Carolina defense that has allowed the 10^th-fewest RB points per game (all scores and ranks are in PPR format), but you can’t sit him in season-long leagues. His usage gives him too much weekly upside to bench him.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): The Patriots are a 10-point favorite this week at home against the Colts, and the Rex Burkhead injury has clarified the team’s backfield roles. Michel has taken the reins of the early down work, and James White will serve as the 3^rd-down receiving back moving forward. That makes both backs extremely valuable moving forward. In week 4, Michel handled 25 carries despite playing just 33 offensive snaps. He’s the focal point of the run game, and the Pats should get to do a bunch of running again this week. Sony has a chance at a big game.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Regression is likely coming for Ridley, but with 6 TDs in his last 3 games, you have to ride the hot streak while it lasts. That’s especially true with the Falcons traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers’ defense that is bleeding the 3^rd-most WR points per game to opponents. Keep rolling with Ridley for now. He may be here to stay.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 5: @SF): Rosen is an intriguing option in 2QB leagues this week facing a less than stellar 49ers’ secondary. The rookie looked at least competent in his first NFL start, and the 49ers have allowed the 8^th-most QB fantasy points per game and rank 20^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA statistic. San Francisco has also allowed at least 20 QB points and 2 passing TDs each and every week. Rosen has potential for a much better showing than what he did a week ago.

RBs Royce Freeman & Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 5: @NYJ): Freeman and Lindsay both have shown themselves to be weekly borderline RB2 options regardless of game script, and this week should be no different. The Jets have allowed 30+ RB points in back-to-back weeks, and are not a defense to run away from with this duo. Freeman is the better option in standard leagues, and Lindsay is the better option in PPR formats.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 5: vs. GB): It’s going to be hard to fully rely on Kerryon until the Lions give him the keys to the backfield. His efficiency has been off the charts. He’s averaged more than 5 yards per carry in each of the last 3 games, but he’s averaged just 11 attempts per game. If his efficiency drops a bit, the weekly floor is concerning. Kerryon played just 20 snaps last week out of 54 team offensive snaps. That’s just not enough playing time to treat Johnson as an every-week starter.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 5: @NE): Hines’s role as the top receiving back in Indy seems pretty secure after the way he played in week 4. If Marlon Mack returns this week, I still think Hines gets a decent number of targets. The game script certainly will play in his favor with the Pats favored by 10. He’s going to be a valuable PPR flex option going forward.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Will Fuller is questionable this week with a hamstring injury. If Fuller isn’t able to go, Coutee is a solid flex or WR3 in deeper leagues. He came on the scene in a big way last Sunday, putting up 11-109 on 15 targets in his season debut. The Cowboys do a good job of slowing down the game, but they rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA. It may feel like point chasing to use Coutee this week, but the opportunity should be there if Fuller sits.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): For all the excitement Mayfield brought in his first NFL action in leading the Browns to their first win in more than a year, he came crashing back to earth a bit in his first start. Mayfield turned the ball over 4 times against a lackluster Raiders’ team, and gets a tougher matchup with the Ravens this week. Baltimore ranks 5^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and they’ve allowed just one passing score total in the 3 games that they didn’t square off against the Bengals. You might not have a choice in deeper 2QB leagues, but I’d probably lean against Baker this week in most formats.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): The Broncos are not the shut down pass defense they once were, but they’re not exactly a defense to target either. Darnold has put up 3 consecutive shaky performances since his strong debut, and I don’t feel confident that this is the week he gets it going again. He’s a desperation QB2 at best.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): We got to see the good Josh Allen against the Vikings 2 weeks ago, and the bad against the Packers last Sunday…and it was very bad. The Titans are a decent pass defense that has been improving as the season has gone on, but the Vikings weren’t exactly slouches on that side of the ball. Allen’s Jekyll & Hyde act makes him a boom-or-bust QB2 option. There is too much QB production out there this season to take on that weekly risk in a matchup like this one.

RB Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 5: @NE): Game script is likely to be negative for the Colts in this one, and Wilkins hasn’t produced much in the opportunities he’s received thus far. Hines is a much better option at this point.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Even with Chris Carson sidelined in week 4, Penny played second fiddle to Mike Davis, who was extremely impressive in a win over the Cardinals. The Rams are stingy versus the run, and Penny may be the number 3 back moving forward if Carson returns. This is a player to avoid for now.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Chubb’s 2 long TD runs last Sunday were exciting to see and may have earned him more playing time moving forward, but he played just 3 snaps. The Ravens allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game, so I would steer clear even if you believe the playing time will go up. Don’t chase last week’s points.

RB Mark Walton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Walton did see a bit more work behind Gio Bernard in week 4, but even with Mixon out he’s no more than a change-of-pace back. He shouldn’t be in your lineups at this point.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 5: @NYJ): The Jets rank 2^nd in the league in pass defense DVOA, and QB Case Keenum’s play has been spotty at best. Sutton is no more than a DFS tournament dart throw this week, even though he’s been outplaying Demaryius Thomas lately.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 5: @SF): Kirk is averaging 5 catches per game over the past 3 weeks, but he also averaged 7 yards per catch or fewer in 2 of them. The QB switch to Rosen is likely good for him overall, but his current usage really isn’t helpful in fantasy leagues. A line of 5-30 isn’t going to be much benefit in anything but the deepest of leagues.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Callaway has seen plenty of opportunity over the past few weeks, but he hasn’t turned it into production and has made several mistakes on the field. Hue Jackson has talked about dialing back Callaway’s playing time this week. It may just be a motivation tactic, but I think he’ll make good on it Sunday. I’m staying away from Callaway this week, especially against a solid Ravens’ defense.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I’m hopeful the Panthers made an effort to come up with ways to get DJ more involved over the bye week, but I need to see it before I believe it, especially facing a Giants’ defense that has allowed the fewest WR points per game in the league.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 5: @Hou.): The Texans’ defense against WRs is trending in the wrong direction (22.6, 27.9, 42.4. and 67.4 PPR points allowed in the first 4 games), and Gallup is trending in the right direction (1,2,4, and 5 targets in the first 4 games), but he’s still not seeing enough action to be worth a roll of the dice here. Gallup has totaled just 5-76-0 in 4 weeks.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): With Alshon back Goedert just wasn’t a featured part of the offense in week 4. He was targeted just twice in Carson Wentz’s 37 passing attempts. It seems that at least for now Zach Ertz is back in charge of the TE passing looks in the Eagles’ offense. Goedert should stay on your bench for now.

TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 5: @Cle.): Hurst’s likely return this week makes an already murky TE situation even more confusing for Baltimore. There are already 3 tight ends playing a decent number of snaps, and adding a 4^th won’t add much clarity. We need to wait at least a week to see how things play out.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): The Giants are allowing the 5^th-fewest TE points per game, and Thomas has yet to clear 20 receiving yards in a game. He has been targeted in the red zone 3 times, but the Giants are yet to allow a TD to a tight end. I don’t expect Thomas to be the one to break through this week.

Rookies on bye: RB Ronald Jones III, TB

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): If Devonta Freeman is active this week, scratch everything that I write here about Smith this week, but Ito has been useful in the deepest of leagues while Freeman has been out. He’s averaged 8 touches and 43 yards per game over the last 3 weeks, and should make an intriguing fill-in for really deep leagues and DFS tournaments if Devonta winds up sidelined again. This game has the makings of a shootout, so there will be plenty of fantasy numbers to go around.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): The Falcons have been shredded by WRs thus far, and have lost 3 safeties to injury this season. Washington has been playing a ton of snaps. The targets are bound to come eventually. He’s an upside dart throw in DFS tournaments this weekend with this game having the highest over/under number of the week.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 5: @Det.): Randall Cobb wasn’t close to playing last week. Geronimo Allison was concussed last Sunday against Buffalo. Davante Adams will match up against Darius “Big Play” Slay. If Allison is out, There will be opportunity for one of Green Bay’s rookie WRs. Valdes-Scantling is the most likely beneficiary after playing 54 snaps in Cobb’s absence in week 4. We haven’t seen enough production to trust him in season-long leagues, but he’s a very interesting DFS dart throw for tournaments this week.

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 5: @Cin.): This is as good a week as any to try Gesicki in DFS tournaments. The Bengals have allowed the 5^th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and have allowed a TD to the position in 3 out of 4 games. Game script should keep the Dolphins throwing with Cincy favored by nearly a touchdown.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions this week that involve rookies. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make certain not to start anyone who is sitting the week out. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re 5 weeks in to the season now, so you should have a pretty good idea what your team’s strengths and weaknesses are…but things aren’t always so clear with the rookie class at this point. There are almost certainly some rookies that have been non-factors so far that will make a difference before season’s end. Ronald Jones, Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny, James Washington, and Anthony Miller haven’t had much of an impact so far, but it doesn’t mean they won’t before season’s end. With that in mind, most of this week’s sleepers are guys that are likely better as stashes for later in the year than players you should be using this week. That doesn’t mean there aren’t any usable rookies this week. Quite the contrary. Let’s dive in and see what to expect in week 6…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): Barkley remains an every week starter, even in tougher matchups like this one. The Eagles have allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB fantasy points per game (all scoring and ranks are in PPR format), but Barkley has tallied at least 16 touches and 100 scrimmage yards every week, and has found the end zone in 4 of 5 games.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 6: vs. KC): The Chiefs rank 32^nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 2^nd-most RB fantasy points per game, including over 140 rushing yards allowed in 2 of the past 3 games. Michel owns the early down work in New England with Burkhead on IR, and he’s safely a top-15 option this week.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. TB): There is some risk here after Ridley posted just 4-38 on 5 targets last week, but Tampa’s pass defense is miserable (ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA) and Ridley has scored more than half of Atlanta’s receiving TDs this season. If you don’t have 3 studs to start over him, you can’t keep Ridley’s upside benched this week.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 6 vs. LAR): Lindsay’s usage makes him the safer weekly play of he and Royce Freeman, and game script this week should certainly favor him with the Rams favored by 7 on the road in this one. Freeman has had very little impact as a receiver, and Lindsay’s use as a pass-catcher makes him a reasonable flex play in all formats this week.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 6: @NYJ): Hines remains a PPR flex option this week. He’s been averaging 7 catches a game in his past 3 contests, and his receiving floor should be safe even if Marlon Mack manages to return this week. His explosive speed makes him a constant threat to break a bit play, even if we haven’t seen that big play on the field yet.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): Will Fuller’s health has been a big factor in Coutee’s breakout over the past 2 weeks, but I like the chances that Coutee continues to impress even if Fuller is closer to full strength. The Bills have been very strong defending perimeter receivers, but they rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA on passes thrown to WRs that aren’t the #1 or 2 guy on their team. Tre’Davious White should be shadowing DeAndre Hopkins, and Coutee should be a great outlet for Deshaun Watson this week. He’s a little riskier this week than he’s been in the past 2, but I like him as a PPR flex play.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 6: vs. SF): There’s always value in being a starting WR playing with Aaron Rodgers. Randall Cobb is almost certain to sit again this week, and there’s no guarantee that Geronimo Allison returns either. That means Valdes-Scantling has a chance to be the team’s WR2 again this week. That’s a role that earned him a 97% snap share last weekend, and he’ll be a viable WR3 in all formats again this week if G-Mo is out again.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): This is a matchup that looks more inviting on paper than it really is. The Colts have given up the 5^th-most passing yards per game, but they haven’t been beaten deep, and Darnold has thrived on the long ball. Of his 8 touchdown throws, 3 of them went for 40+ yards, and 4 of the other 5 went for 20+. The Colts are one of just 2 teams that have given up zero passes that went 40 yards. Indy can be thrown on, but this doesn’t project to be a ceiling game for Darnold. He’s no more than a low-end QB2 this week.

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 6: @Min.): The Vikings’ pass defense hasn’t lived up to their reputation in the first 5 weeks, allowing the 6^th-most QB fantasy points per game and ranking 26^th in pass defense DVOA, but Rosen failed to come through in a similarly inviting spot a week ago. The Vikings talent is better than the numbers would suggest, and Rosen could be in for a long day with Larry Fitzgerald ailing.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 6: @Hou.): There isn’t enough upside to roll the dice on Allen in DFS tournaments, and his floor is too low to feel great about using him in season-long leagues of any format. He remains a boom-or-bust QB2 if you’re desperate.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Freeman saw as little work as he has all year in week 5 after head coach Vance Joseph claimed they were going to get him more involved. The Rams haven’t been shutting down the run game, ranking just 28^th in run defense DVOA, but game script could really work against Freeman here with LA a touchdown favorite. I’d be hesitant to play Freeman if I had other strong options. He’s a contrarian play in DFS tournaments. It’s within the range of outcomes that Denver leans on Freeman and the run game to keep the ball away from the Rams’ offense and has success, but it’s not the most likely outcome.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Sorry if you have Chubb shares, but like him you get to keep waiting for Hue Jackson to get a clue or for something to happen to Carlos Hyde. Chubb hasn’t seen more than 3 carries in any game, and the Chargers have allowed fewer than 55 rushing yards to opposing RBs in 3 of their 5 games. There’s no reason to bank on this being the week when Chubb sees increased opportunity.

RB Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 6: @NYJ): Marlon Mack is practicing in full this week, and if he plays it’s Wilkins who will lose the most work of the two Colts’ rookies. Wilkins’ role has already been shrinking and he’s yet to reach 10 fantasy points in any game this year.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): The Chargers are not great against wide receivers – they allow the 7^th-most points per game to the position, but Callaway has been unable to get out of his own way. He’s struggled with drops and mental mistakes, and he’s seen his targets scaled back as Hue Jackson promised. He saw just 5 targets in week 5 after drawing 10+ in each of the previous 2 contests. I’m not sure you can bank on more than 5 targets this week, and Callaway has been inefficient with the targets he’s seen.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): The Rams have allowed 8 touchdowns to wide receivers in the past 3 weeks, but they’ve also allowed fewer than 10 catches to the position in 4 out of 5 games. Sutton is still 3^rd banana in the Broncos’ passing game, and that makes him just a TD dart throw this week.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 6: @Mia.): There’s a decent chance that Miller returns from his shoulder injury this week, but he will likely be limited and Taylor Gabriel really emerged in his absence. The Dolphins allow just the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, so even if Miller gets a decent snap share, the chances he produces are slim.

WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 6: @Dal.): Chark had his best game as a pro last weekend, but that’ll happen when your QB throws the ball 61 times in comeback mode. The Jaguars are a 3-point road favorite this week, so it’s unlikely that the game script repeats itself. Chark will likely go back to being a spectator this weekend.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Gallup has just 6 catches in 5 weeks, and faces a Jaguars’ defense that has lived up to its reputation – they’ve allowed the 2^nd-fewest points per game to wide receivers on the year. This isn’t a tough call to sit Gallup.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 6: @NYG): The G-Men are allowing just the 3^rd-fewest tight end points per game, and the return of Alshon Jeffery has made Goedert a forgotten man in the Eagles’ passing attack.

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Chi.): The Bears have allowed a tight end score in 3 straight games, but Gesicki’s last red zone target came in week one, and he’s yet to hit paydirt all season long.

Rookies on Byes: RB Kerryon Johnson, DET, TE Hayden Hurst, BAL, TE Mark Andrews, BAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 6: @LAC): The turnovers from Mayfield over the past 2 weeks have been troubling, but he’s averaged over 300 yards per game in his 2 starts, and the 2 teams he faced have been less giving to QBs than the Chargers have been on the year. Los Angeles is allowing 284 passing yards per game and nearly 3 touchdowns per game. Mayfield is an intriguing play in DFS and a solid QB2 option.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. TB): It looks like Devonta Freeman is going back on the shelf this week, which means Ito is back in play as a cheap DFS option and flex option in the deepest of leagues. The Bucs allow the 6^th-most RB points per game, and this game has the highest over/under of the week. It’s always wise to target players in a shootout in DFS tournaments. Tevin Coleman will still be the main cog in the backfield, but Ito has shown that he can be productive as the number 2 guy.

RB Ronald Jones II, TB (Wk. 6: @Atl.): Peyton Barber has continued to be wildly inefficient, and Jones dressed for the first time in week 4 ahead of the bye week. It’s only a matter of time before the Bucs see what they have in the rookie. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues, and he might start to show what he can do as soon as this week. Atlanta allows the 3^rd-most RB points per game and ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA, and there isn’t much else to speak of in the Bucs backfield. Things could be lining up for a surprising day from Jones. He is at the very least a cheap punt option for DFS tournaments.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 6: @Min.): Kirk clearly has the best connection with Rosen of any Arizona wide receiver, and there should be plenty of garbage time in this game with the Vikings a double-digit favorite. Kirk will gain value as the year goes on and Rosen gains experience. He’s a player to target in DFS leagues if there are any impatient owners out there.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 6: @Was.): Moore is close to being a stash in all formats. He was finally utilized a bit last week, and he showed why people have been itching to see more of him. Moore caught all 4 of his targets for 49 yards, and took one rushing attempt for 18. He’s not quite start-able yet, but it’s coming.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Most people are going to be off Washington this week after he put up a goose egg and played limited snaps last Sunday, but it was more the result on an unexpected blowout rather than his role being diminished. Washington is still more of a stash in deep leagues and dynasty formats, but it’s possible that we get the shootout here that the Falcons-Steelers game was supposed to be. The Bengals-Steelers game has the 3^rd-highest over/under of the week, and Washington should be more utilized than he was last Sunday. He’s only worth consideration in DFS tournaments as a punt option, but his talent will start to show through eventually.

WR Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 6: vs. SF): St. Brown made a few plays last week and finished with 3 catches for 89 yards with Cobb and Allison both out. There’s a chance that we have the same situation again this week, and if that’s the case, ESB becomes a shoot the moon DFS tournament option. Valdes-Scantling is the higher percentage play this week, but St. Brown should be on the radar if Allison sits.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 6: @Was.): Thomas was quietly being more utilized over the past couple weeks and isn’t far from being a name to know in deeper dynasty leagues. It looks like Greg Olsen will be back this week, but Thomas has made huge strides this year after playing just 2 years of college ball. Olsen has had a hard time staying on the field in the last 2 years, and he may be rushing back from his current injury that will require surgery at some point. Thomas has seen 11 targets in the past 2 weeks, and that type of usage will become the norm again if something happens to Olsen. The production hasn’t been impressive so far, but it’ll come.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your tougher lineup decisions that involve rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week, and don’t forget to double check and make sure your players are all active before kickoff. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Last week I had some work come up and was unable to contribute! Hopefully you enjoyed all the upsets and won your fantasy matchup! Darn work gets in the way of fun from time to time.

Rookie QB’s

Something about Rookies gets me excited. It’s the potential. More often than not they are disappointing, but when they pan out it is exciting! This week we have 2 new Rookie QB’s getting thrown into the mix, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen get their first NFL starts. Why am I interested in watching them this week? Well, the potential.

Baker Mayfield looked much better then Tyrod Taylor when he came in to lead the Browns to victory last week. It will be interesting to see how this affects the rest of the team. Njoku should get back to the preseason hype level. Landry has already been quoted that Mayfield throws “with so much zing”. Calloway has some breakout potential and would have had an easy touchdown if Tyrod didn’t under throw him last week (he did drop a dime from Mayfield in the second half).

Josh Rosen got thrown to the wolves last week vs the Bears. Down in the 4^th quarter against one of the scariest defenses in the league, perfect time to let the rookie show what he is made of. Rosen had great chemistry with Christian Kirk in the pre-season and I would expect to see his name on some waiver wire lists next week. The big thing to watch will be how the rookie benefits David Johnson, because quite frankly it can’t get worse….right?

Prediction- Baker Mayfield goes off passing for 300+ yards and touchdowns to 3 different receivers (Landry, Calloway, Njoku). Rosen looks more like a rookie, but David Johnson owners breathe a sigh of relief as he targets his best weapon out of the backfield and has his best fantasy performance of the year.

Thursday Night Football

Any football fan will sit down and watch Thursday night football, even a Jets vs Browns game. This week should be one of the better matchups on the season with two of the favorites to win the NFC squaring off.

Minnesota was downright awful last week vs Buffalo and looks to bounce back on the road vs the 3-0 Rams. The Vikings hold 27-16-2 record all time vs the Rams including last season when the Vikings blew out the Rams 24-7. A lot of the same faces this year, but two very different starts to the season. With a Vegas over/under set at 49.5, this should be a shoot-out and great fantasy days for all involved. I’m just excited to start Week 4 with what should be an exciting game.

Prediction: Minnesota coming into LA as underdogs score the last points of the game and that proves to be the difference. Final 38-35 Vikings

 The Bills?

Did you see Josh Allen hurdle?! In an age when defenders are getting flagged for patting a quarterback on the head, no one expected Josh Allen to hurdle a tackle. He didn’t only do it with his legs (2 rushing TDs) he also went for 15-22 for 196 yards and a touchdown in a game where he did not need to pass much.

With LeSean McCoy coming back this week, I will be watching to see if McCoy can return any value with a new signal caller out there. Since Allen has already proved his ability to keep plays alive and use his legs, we might see more swing passes and option plays going McCoys way.

Prediction – The Bills lose to the Packers, but Josh Allen surprises with 250 yards, 1 passing touchdown and another one on the ground. His mobility opens up the game for LeSean McCoy and owners that nabbed him in the 4^th or 5^th round are starting to get excited. 

Week 2 Recap

Denver Backfield - Nailed my prediction of Freeman getting in the end zone week 2 (did it again week 3) and both backs are RB2/Flex worthy. Lindsay got ejected for throwing a punch week 3, but he will be back and we can expect a split backfield once again.

JETS - Missed badly here. Darnold looks…..like a rookie. I called for Crow to get into the end zone twice in week 2, and was off a week in both directions. He scored twice in week 1 and twice in week 3. Maybe start Crow on odd number weeks? Smarter play is to avoid the Jets all together.

Steelers vs Chiefs – It was the highest scoring game of the week with a whopping 79 points. Kelce and Hunt also had great bounce back games. Missed on AB being the #1 WR of the week, but can’t win them all!