Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Every year, fantasy championships are won or lost by the teams that managed to hit on a break out player or...those that passed over that player. One of the more predictable paths to break out players is when a WR enters his third year. Players that reach this point have at least shown flashes of being good, otherwise they would have been cut already.

A couple of guys will be exempt from our class this year, notably Michael Thomas (NO) and Tyreek Hill (KC), both of whom finished in the top 8 fantasy WRs in 2017. They've already been breaking things - mainly records. Thomas is certain to be a stud again next year, going over 1100 yards receiving in each of his two seasons. Hill's situation may seem a little uncertain with new QB Patrick Mahomes, but the fact that Tyreek Hill is one of the most exciting players to watch since Devin Hester will not change.

So that leaves us with 12 guys that were all drafted ahead Tyreek Hill (165th overall). We'll look at their breakout potential based on past performance and their team's current situation. Some of these guys have already shown some really good things, and some of them are valuable picks that aren't working out. This is part 1, where we'll look at the first 4 guys on the list, all first rounders. Next time, we'll take a look at more third year WRs, as well as some breakouts in the past and why those worked.

Corey Coleman (CLE) - Coleman was the first WR taken in the 2016 draft - he was 15th overall. His biggest problem in his first two years, apart from being on the Browns, is that he was unable to stay on the field. He's played in just 19 games during his first two seasons. He's also, and this can't be stressed enough, on the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are certainly expected to be a team with a good amount of turmoil, following a 0-16 season. Since coach Hue Jackson is sticking around, he's likely to stick with his very first draft pick for at least another year. This should guarantee Coleman an opportunity to produce on the team, if only for Hue Jackson to show that he can at least get one thing right.

The sample size that Coleman does have is big enough to show us some encouraging stats. First of all, he's being targeted 7 times per game, never going below 4 in any single week. He's firmly the #2 WR on the team behind Josh Gordon, so this means that he's unlikely to draw the toughest coverages. I don't see his targets average changing much to start off 2018.

Going in to 2018, the biggest worry for Coleman will be what the offense is going to look like around him. New OC Todd Haley should breathe some life into a team that only put up 20+ points four times last season. The most important role is going to be quarterback for the Browns. Improved QB play will do a lot to up Coleman's catch percentage, which is just 42.7% for his career.

So can Coleman break out in 2018? I say that yes, he can, but there's a couple things that need to happen along the way. First and foremost, he needs a good QB. I have no idea how this will happen, but if they sign a decent free agent (ahem, Kirk Cousins), then this could be a huge upgrade. This could make Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman a combination that puts up 1000 yards each. It’s more likely that they will draft a top QB, so that will take more time to develop.

 Second, he needs to stay healthy, especially early in the season. Coleman has basically missed the first couple months each of the last two years, which is a terrible way to start a career. If he plays 16 games, he has the opportunity to develop a good rapport with the new starting QB. I really hope there's a new starting QB.

So hey, it's the offseason, we can dream a little bit. If the Browns do wind up signing Terrelle Pryor, I wouldn't worry too much. Pryor would be more of an insurance signing than someone who would start immediately. I give Coleman a 60% chance to break out as a WR 2 if they sign a good QB. If not, he's probably more like 30% - in short, he (and the Browns) need help to get there.

Will Fuller (HOU) - The 21st overall pick, Fuller looks like he has a great chance at big fantasy numbers in 2018. With Deshaun Watson at QB, Fuller is definitely in the best situation of any third year WR going in to next season. The Texans are a team on the rise, mostly because their offense looks to be explosive with Watson at the helm.

Fuller also benefits from the presence of DeAndre Hopkins, last year’s #1 fantasy WR. Hopkins will demand tons of attention from opposing defenses, and should draw a lot of top coverage and even double teams. This will allow Fuller to exploit his matchups in an attempt to match his blistering touchdown pace from last year.

How great was his touchdown pace? Well, in 2017, Fuller found the end zone one out of every four touches he had. On the season, he had 7 TDs on just 28 receptions. Unfortunately, he had only an average of 5 targets per game, but with a 56% catch percentage, he is able to still be productive. Having 15 yards per catch helps a lot too. This kind of production probably means that Fuller will not slip in under the radar in 2018 drafts.

Due to his higher profile, compared to the rest of the guys on this list, he will definitely not be a sneaky pick you can get later in the draft. If you want Fuller on your team, it’s going to cost you a mid-round pick, if not higher. My suggestion for guys like this is generally to wait and let others overspend on him, but to take him if the value is right.

So, can Will Fuller break out as a bigtime receiver in 2018? I say that the chances are high that he has a successful season, provided he can stay healthy. He’s missed 8 games over his first two seasons, so he’s more reliable than Corey Coleman. That being said, he has to play more than 75% of the time to reach the WR2 territory that we’re hoping for.

I give Fuller an 80% chance to break out this season. This mostly depends on Watson being his QB and performing somewhere near the insane level that he had last year (18 passing TDs in just 6 starts, are you kidding me?). So keep an eye on him during the offseason to see how well he’s working with Watson. There will likely be a lot of hype surrounding the Texans offense going in to next year, so that may artificially inflate the ADP of everyone involved, especially Fuller – since Hopkins and Watson are already at the top of their respective positions.

Josh Doctson (WAS) - Doctson was the 22nd overall pick in 2016 and the Redskins first round selection for that year. His rookie year was a dud, appearing in just 2 games and racking up 2 receptions. Going in to last season, he seemed like one of the hot sleeper picks. Unfortunately his hype was just talk and he really couldn't get anything going until later in the season.

Injuries have been a concern for Doctson, and an obvious theme in this list. Through two seasons, he's appeared in only 18 games, after a mysterious Achilles injury early in the 2016 season kept him mostly grounded for an entire year. The encouraging stat to take away here is that he did appear in all 16 games in 2017 and ended the season healthy.

The 2018 season looks to be set up for an overall upgrade for Doctson. His new QB, Alex Smith, was one of the best in the league last year, though he's unlikely to repeat those gaudy numbers. Regardless, Smith is a guy who has learned how to make the most of a speedy guy on the outside, and Doctson will be the #1 outside target on the 'Skins with Pryor likely to depart.

Doctson has a few stats in 2017 that make his outlook quite positive for the upcoming season. Once he was back into full rotation with the offense, he was targeted consistently - averaging 6.8 targets per game from week 9 to the end of the season. He also found the end zone 6 times. With a long score of 52 yards, and a short of just 1, it's clear that he's a threat to score from anywhere on the field.

Still, there's room for improvement with Doctson. Obviously, he needs to develop a rapport with his new QB, but he also needs to up his catch %. 44% is just not going to cut it when your QB is a check-down king. He's also only had one game over 61 yards in his career, and that one was just 81 yards. He's going to be a key member of a potent passing game, so he's due to break the century mark - or maybe he's just lucky that he scored 6 times last year.

I give Doctson a 60% chance to break out as a WR3 this year. His low yardage totals have me worried, although his 15.4 career yards per reception could be the key indicator that he's going to put up good numbers if he catches more balls. I would put his chances at becoming a WR2 at more like 35%. Doctson has a lot of tools to be a good player in the NFL. I don't know if I've seen indications that he can be great...yet.

Laquon Treadwell (MIN) - 2016's 23rd overall pick is firmly in the bust category through two seasons on the Minnesota Vikings. Treadwell was the 3rd WR taken in a row - clearly a run, and anyone who's played fantasy football for a while knows that it really sucks being at the end of a run at any position. Perhaps the writing was on the wall for Treadwell all along.

Amazingly, he's been healthy enough to have appeared (or at least been on the active roster) for 25 games - that's more than any other WRs that were drafted in the first round. Treadwell just can't find his way on to the field for enough snaps to ever make a difference. Injuries to other players haven't allowed him to just jump up the depth chart, and he was never really able to earn his way into getting targets. He has just 38 targets on his career, a measly 1.5 per game.

The emergence of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have basically ended it for Treadwell in Minnesota. They're likely to part ways with him either through trade or just cutting him. If he gets cut, he'll probably stick with the team through late August, until final cut-downs, but don't get your hopes up.

I give Treadwell a 5% chance of being fantasy relevant in 2018, and this is contingent on him finding a new team and getting a prominent role. He's had many chances to prove himself and just can't do it. This one's a no-brainer. You're not drafting Treadwell, and because of that, thankfully, I don't have to dive into the messy QB situation in Minnesota.

Third year WRs tend to be a hot commodity come draft time, so let’s take a look in to some past successes and failures, along with a few more of the third year guys coming up in 2018. If you haven’t done so, check out Part 1.

A quick review over last year's WRs in their third season showed a few definite successes from further down the ranks, and a few disappointments from the top. Most notably, DeVante Parker was probably the most hyped player preseason, but turned in a crappy 670 yards and just 1 TD.

Amari Cooper was the other top draft disappointment. He put up over 1000 yards in his first two seasons, and then finished 31st overall at WR in 2017. Only 2 of the 9 WRs drafted in the first two rounds in 2015 finished in the top 25 - Devin Funchess (21st) and Nelson Agholor (22nd).

The lack of success stories from last year are a bit of a reflection of a down WR year in general. Stefon Diggs did manage to finish on top of the class, but he was only about 3 points higher than Funchess and Agholor.  In all, the best that the 2015 class could achieve is the 4th tier of WRs.

There are some lower round picks that still look promising, but didn't break out in their third year. Tyler Lockett, Jamison Crowder and J.J. Nelson have all shown at least a few flashes of being big fantasy producers. Heck, even the converted RB Ty Montgomery technically counts as a WR drafted in 2015.

The 2014 WR draft class had an even bigger group in the first two rounds - 12 guys, and considerably more success. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee, Davante Adams and Jarvis Landry are all guys who were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and either had a considerable jump in their 3rd year, or were already at the top and had another good season.

Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Robinson all took a step back in their third season, but remained fantasy relevant. The pickings were slim further down the draft board, with only Martavis Bryant really generating any interest, but winding up suspended that year.

Over the last couple of years, there's plenty of examples of big seasons from third year WRs, but a lot of them are from players who had success very early in their career. A true breakout WR1 performance like Davante Adams in 2016 isn't that common, but getting guys up to the WR3 level is a very reasonable thing to expect.

This year, there's 12 guys whose chances we're considering for a 2018 breakout. In Part 1, we had the 1st round guys - now we'll do guys from rounds 2 through 4 (some of them in there are already irrelevant and have been skipped). Part 3 will cover the last 4 guys that were drafted before Tyreek Hill.

Sterling Shepard (NYG) - Shepard was the 40th overall pick in 2016, and had a pretty respectable rookie year. Unfortunately, he dropped to only 85.5 points in 11 games (7.77 ppg) last year, compared to 119.4 points over 16 games (9.95 ppg). This drop in points per game also came with an increase in targets per game (from 6.56 in 2016 to 7.64 last year).

So, Sterling went through the stereotypical “sophomore slump”, but this is not all his fault (apart from injuries), considering how bad his team was last year. The WR position was decimated for the Giants last season – Shepard missing only 6 games made him one of the more reliable WRs on the team. When he was in, his production was volatile, mostly because the team had no idea what they were doing.

In 2017, the 3 games where he had 10 or more targets Shepard went over 100 receiving yards and had at least 14 fantasy points in each game. Those were his first 100+ receiving games since Week 2 of his rookie year, so we are seeing improvement in his ceiling, if not improvement in his floor as a fantasy player. What I want to see from Shepard in 2018 is better performances in his bad games. 5 (out of 11) games under 5 points in standard scoring is going to keep him on the bench most weeks.

We move on to the biggest question with Shepard, and that’s about his team. What will he be surrounded by in 2018? Thus far, he has a new coach – the offensive minded Pat Shurmur, who made Adam Thielen into a pro-bowler and Stefon Diggs into the best 3^rd year WR in 2017. It looks like QB Eli Manning will return for another season as the Giants starter, despite Ben McAdoo’s best efforts, so this is a definite plus for Shepard.

At WR, Shepard should move into the 2 spot once the Giants part ways with Brandon Marshall, which is very likely to happen since the 34-year old is coming off of a couple of major injuries and cutting him will save over $5 million from the cap. Odell Beckham Jr. will be back and will command a majority of the targets, as well as WR1 draft status and lots of attention from opposing defenses.

I give Sterling Shepard a 50% chance at breaking out into a solid WR3 for the Giants. This reflects the Giants likely drafting an offensive player at #2 that is not a QB or WR (meaning the pick will be complimentary and not take away from his possible production). I really have my doubts that he can move into WR2 territory, but anything is possible when you have a running mate like OBJ.

Tyler Boyd (CIN) – Drafted 55^th overall (2^nd round), Boyd was taken just a few picks after Michael Thomas (47^th) and was the last WR taken until late in the third round. A similar refrain with all these WRs, Boyd missed some time in his 2^nd season due to injury and this really caused him to take a step back in 2017. Boyd had at least 2 receptions in all but 2 games of his rookie season, which made his future look promising. The script was flipped in 2017, where Boyd only had more than 2 receptions in 2 games – just the last two of the season.

Boyd’s 2017 is almost a throw-away season, but he played so much that this has to be taken into account. If you remove the last two games, he averaged just 1.5 receptions per game. The one bright spot is that he scored the game winning TD in Week 17 to eliminate the Baltimore Ravens from playoff contention. His biggest play wasn’t even fantasy relevant since it occurred in Week 17, so he was a total zero in fantasy last season.

I don’t think that Boyd’s roster spot is guaranteed this season. Ahead of him on the depth chart are A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell, along with last year’s rookie dud John Ross. I have to assume that all things being equal, Ross will be given more chances than Boyd to produce on the field and make the team. This will likely be a preseason competition, but not one to bother following closely.

I give Boyd just a 20% chance to become a WR3 this season. He would need a lot of things to work in his favor and would definitely need to pass LaFell up on the depth chart. I put Boyd’s chances so low because of his 2^nd year regression and the rest of the skill position talent on the Bengals. Boyd’s only chance is really if he solidifies the starting spot opposite Green and if Joe Mixon takes over as a 3-down player, eliminating lots of Bernard’s targets.

Braxton Miller (HOU) - Miller was picked #85 overall by the Texans, and has struggled to make it in the lineup for various reasons during his first two years. Aside from injuries, he's been a healthy scratch several times and has only played in 21 games, having a reception in only 16 of them. Needless to say, Braxton Miller hasn't done much in the NFL.

The Texans are full steam ahead to squeeze through their Super Bowl window, and this will probably leave Miller as the odd man out in Houston. I give Miller just a 10% chance of being fantasy relevant at all this season. He will probably be in an NFL camp this summer, but at this point he's probably not worth keeping around on your dynasty roster into next year.

Chris Moore (BAL) - Pick 114 in the 2015 draft by the Baltimore Ravens was Chris Moore. He's played in a whopping 28 games, which is very good for this draft class. Much of this action is due to his good play on special teams, which definitely makes him more valuable to a team - and more likely to get chances with the ball. Thus far, he hasn't had very much action on offense, but at least his career has trended in the right direction.

After just 7 receptions in his rookie year, he improved in every receiving stat over year two, though he only had 18 receptions. He did manage 3 TDs last season and his yards per reception went up to 13.8. Moore has never really been the guy, but then again, the Ravens passing game has been sluggish at best over the last couple of years.

This year, the Ravens have acquired Michael Crabtree (and not Ryan Grant) who will sit atop the depth chart. Currently Chris Moore is going to be up against first round (thus far) flop Breshad Perriman and former Cardinal John Brown for the second starting WR spot on the Ravens. Moore has the good fortune of being in just the right spot at the right time to take this starting job.

I give Moore a 50% chance of being fantasy relevant this season - not too bad for a 4th round pick three years ago. This doesn't really put him in as a end of draft flier in my opinion, but he is a guy to keep on your radar during the preseason. I'd say he has only a 15% chance at being a WR3, or someone you would want to start on a regular basis next year.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've almost made it all the way through NFL Draft season, and Thursday night we can finally start to put all of the smokescreens, misinformation, and mock drafts behind us as we learn where these players are really going...but first, let's do just a little bit more speculating. The information you're about to read below isn't a mock draft. It isn't an indication of where these players are going to be drafted. It's simply me trying to fit the puzzle pieces together in a way that would be most beneficial to each of the players for their career development and long-term fantasy upside.

I will be posting breakdowns of the RB, WR and TE positions in the coming hours, but with the QBs in particular, a few of these landing spots have just about zero chance of actually happening without some really surprising trades. That's going to happen when a QB-needy team like Buffalo isn't a good landing spot for anyone. The Bills are going to draft a QB and will probably trade up to do it, but their weapons are so bad at this point I wouldn't want any QB saddled with that situation. With all of that in mind, here are my favorite landing spots for the top QBs in the 2018 draft.

(Player, College – Favorite Landing Spot)

Josh Rosen, UCLA - New York Giants: This landing spot would be a good one for Rosen, and for the Giants. New York is widely expected to draft Saquon Barkley at this point, but Rosen would be a better choice. The Giants don't plan on picking this high again any time soon, and Eli Manning is 37 years old and has led the team to just one winning season in the past 5 years. The time to put a succession plan in place is now.

Rosen is the safest QB in this draft, and the one who fits the Giants' offense best. He's a pure pocket passer who will play within the structure of the scheme, much like Eli, and he can throw with accuracy to all 3 levels of the field. He'll have exciting weapons in Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram that will give him QB1 upside as soon as he takes over as starter. There's been a lot of talk about Rosen's attitude and varied interests outside of football being an issue for him, but I think that's nonsense. His personality kind of reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, and that hasn't been a problem for Rodgers' game at the NFL level. As a passer, the more apt comparison is Matt Ryan. If the Giants select Rosen, I think their QB position will be secured for the next decade.

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Cleveland Browns: Mayfield's name has been popping up lately as a potential pick for the Browns at number 1, and that's who I hope they go with. If it isn't Mayfield, they should certainly go with Sam Darnold over Josh Allen. The reason I like Mayfield is because the Browns have the pieces to install more elements of a spread offense like the one Mayfield thrived in at Oklahoma.

Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku make for a formidable group of receiving threats, and Duke Johnson is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield as well. Gordon and Coleman each have experience in a spread offense from their time at Baylor. The Browns also have a veteran mobile QB on the roster in Tryod Taylor who can help Mayfield learn some of the nuance of the position at the NFL level. I would expect Tyrod to open the season as the starter, but Mayfield should take over at some point near midseason and never look back.

Sam Darnold, USC - Los Angeles Chargers: This pairing is highly unlikely to become reality unless the Chargers make a big trade up, but it's one that is fun to think about. The biggest strength of Darnold's game is his ability to make accurate throws from difficult angles when the defensive pressure causes him to throw without his usual mechanics. The two NFL QBs who do this best are Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford. Since Stafford is 30 and Rivers is going to turn 37 this year, LA is the team that will need a replacement sooner. It's hard to say how many more years Rivers will play before deciding to hang it up and spend more time with his 7 kids (seriously, he has 7 of them), but playing behind Rivers for a year or two could really help Darnold hit his ceiling as a QB.

Darnold has a ton of upside, but he has a tendency to be a bit of a gunslinger and makes some questionable decisions. Rivers would be a great mentor to help Darnold learn to rein that in a little bit, and the weapons in LA should be good for several years with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams around. It's easy to see the Favre-ian upside in Darnold, but if he doesn't improve his decision making, he could just as easily be the next Jay Cutler or worse.

Lamar Jackson, Louisville - New Orleans Saints: Jackson has more fantasy upside than any other QB in this class thanks to his rushing ability. He has the speed and elusiveness of Michael Vick, and is far more advanced as a passer entering the league than Vick was after playing in a pro-style offense under Bobby Petrino at Louisville.

The best-case scenario for Jackson would be landing on a team with a creative offensive coach who will build an offense around him to best maximize his considerable talents. There are 3 teams with coaching staffs that I would trust to do that: New England, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. The Eagles have Carson Wentz and Nick Foles still, so they don't have enough need at QB to spend the draft capital it'll take to land Jackson.

The other two teams should both be looking to life beyond their current Hall of Fame QBs. Either one would be a good landing spot for Jackson, but I give the nod to New Orleans because of the weapons he'll have to work with. In New England, Amendola is gone, Cooks is gone, Julian Edelman will be 32 years old, and Gronk is already hinting at retirement. The Saints have young stars in Alvin Kamara and Mike Thomas, and added another promising youngster in Cam Meredith. Because of that edge in surrounding talent, New Orleans is the place I most want to see Lamar.

Josh Allen, Wyoming – Pittsburgh Steelers: If NFL Draft scouts weren't so in love with size and raw arm strength from QBs, Allen to Pittsburgh might actually be realistic. Instead, the consensus is that Allen will be off the board in the top 10 picks, possibly even at number one. The Steelers, who currently pick at 28, aren't moving up to get him. Still, I think this is the spot that would best serve him in making good on his potential. Ben Roethlisberger was already talking about retirement after the 2016 season, so it's not hard to envision him walking away in the next year or two. Similarly to Allen, Roethlisberger is a big, physical, strong-armed QB who played his college ball in a smaller conference. He'd be a great player for Allen to learn from while he works on his game as the number 2 QB.

Pittsburgh is also a landing spot that wouldn't have nearly as much pressure as the other places he could go...the pressure of being a savior in Cleveland, the pressure of the media scrutiny in New York, or the pressure of having the franchise's hero QB in the front office in Denver. Buffalo is another spot that would lack that pressure, but Buffalo doesn't have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster or a winning culture. Although this landing spot won't happen, I think it would be ideal for Allen.

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State – Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals' offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has said that they will tailor the offense to fit the quarterback they end up with, but McCoy's NFL roots trace back to the vertical passing 'Air Coryell' offense and Mason Rudolph has better accuracy on the deep ball than he does on short and intermediate throws.

The Cardinals could use an upgrade in weapons, but Larry Fitzgerald and a healthy David Johnson are a good starting point. With Sam Bradford slated to start, Rudolph likely will get some action this year when Bradford inevitably misses games. Rudolph is the best QB in the draft after the group of guys expected to go in the first round.

Kyle Lauletta, Richmond - New England Patriots: Lauletta is accurate and is a quick decision maker that really fits what the Patriots' offense does. His arm strength is questionable, but so was Brady's when he came into the league. The things Lauletta does well are a great fit for the scheme the Pats already run. He's also great in the play-action game, makes good decisions, and maneuvers the pocket very well while going through his progressions. I fully believe Brady will play out the two years remaining on his contract before he retires, and drafting Lauletta would allow for a seamless transition when that happens. He's got the upside to be a franchise QB.

Luke Falk, Washington State – Washington Redskins: Falk has a bit of a transition and learning curve ahead of him after playing his college career in Mike Leach's 'Air Raid' offense which is pretty much exclusively a shotgun spread offense. Playing under center and learning more pro concepts will be important parts of a successful transition. Falk lacks the arm strength to throw deep consistently, and current Washington starter Alex Smith is usually too risk averse to go deep himself, but has managed to put together a strong NFL career despite that. Smith is the ideal player for Falk to learn from as he makes the transition, and with Smith being almost 34 years old, he's a player Falk could supplant as starter in a couple years. He has the upside to be a similar game-managing starting QB who can win if surrounded with the right pieces and scheme.

That's all I've got for the QBs. I'm sure you'll disagree with at least some of what I've said above. Don't be a stranger; reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Be sure to check out the landing spot pieces on the RB, WR, and TE positions as well. They're sure to have just as many things you disagree with as this one. Enjoy the draft!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally Draft Day! In just a few hours, we'll be able to start seeing where the top prospects are actually going to start their pro careers. So...that means I still have a few more hours for some wishful thinking about landing spots. I tackled the QB and RB positions yesterday, and today I dive into what my favorite landing spots are for the WRs. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the receives to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. It's likely that there will be at least one team that drafts multiple wide receivers, but for this exercise, I have every receiver listed going somewhere different. Let's dive in...

(Player, college - landing spot)

Calvin Ridley, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Ridley didn't test well athletically at the combine, but he has the technical skill to get separation and was a consistent playmaker at Bama. In 2017 he pulled in nearly 31% of all of the receptions and more than 35% of the receiving yards put up by Alabama players. He also had a catch rate that was more than 10% higher than the average of the rest of the Bama receivers. The Panthers' offense helps create space for receivers since the defense always has to account for the chance that Cam runs the ball, and that will enhance Ridley's already impressive ability to get open. The Panthers lack a true number 1 receiver, and Ridley has the ability to become that guy if selected.

DJ Moore, Maryland - Dallas Cowboys: Moore is my favorite receiver in this class, his game pairs very well with Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys have a glaring need at WR after dumping Dez Bryant. While a lot of people are tempted to project a big, physical receiver here to replace what they lose in Dez, I think they'd be better served to draft a technician who wins in the short and intermediate areas of the field and after the catch. Moore is the best player in this draft who fits that description. Dak is best suited to a precision west coast passing game that can keep him in rhythm, and Dez just isn't a good fit for it. This is evidenced by the fact that Bryant had a catch rate below 53% in each of his two seasons with Prescott at QB. He had a catch rate above 60% in 4 out of 5 seasons with Romo under center (I don't count 2015 where Romo played just 3 games with Dez). DJ Moore would help the Cowboys' offense be more consistent than a player more similar to Dez would.

Courtland Sutton, SMU - Green Bay Packers: There has been a ton of hype around Sutton throughout draft season, but he's not as much of a finished product as that hype would have you believe. One thing he does have that not many of the receivers in this class do is true WR1 upside, and Green Bay playing with Aaron Rodgers is a place where I like his chances to make good on that. The Packers moved on from Jordy Nelson this offseason, and will undoubtedly be looking for a wide receiver within the first 2-3 rounds of this draft. Considering how valuable Jordy has been to the Packers over the years, they should look for the player with the most possible upside to replace him rather than a guy who will step in and contribute immediately. Sutton might be actually be both of those guys, but if he isn't ready to be a starter day 1, the Packers have a capable placeholder in Geronimo Allison.

James Washington, Oklahoma State - Arizona Cardinals: If you read my QB landing spots article, you already know I like Mason Rudolph to land in Arizona, so it's only fitting that I would like his favorite college receiver to join him. Washington has a ton of skill as a deep threat that can help offset the loss of John Brown to Baltimore, and if Rudolph lands there I'd expect Mike McCoy to install more of a vertical passing offense that Washington can thrive in. He's not just a one-trick pony though. James certainly has skills that will translate to the short and intermediate areas as well. He earned a black belt in karate when he was younger, which will help him with discipline, precision of movement, and understanding leverage. The Cardinals' receiving depth chart is very unsettled outside of Larry Fitzgerald, and I'd expect Washington to contribute immediately if he ends up in the desert.

Anthony Miller, Memphis - San Francisco 49ers: Miller is a bit of a tweener who could wind up in the slot or on the perimeter as a pro, but I think he would be best served starting his career in the slot. San Francisco is looking to upgrade their receiving unit now that they've found their franchise QB, and Miller is an explosive athlete who would be a good fit in their scheme. He would likely start in the slot with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin on the outside in 3-wide sets, but he could eventually develop into the replacement for soon-to-be 32 year-old Garcon in a couple years.

Deon Cain, Clemson - Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have been very active in free agency in attempts to upgrade their wide receiver group. They've already signed John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, but they also showed they aren't content yet by offering a multiple year deal to Dez Bryant (that he rejected). Brown has battled a sickle-cell condition that has limited his ability to stay on the field after a promising start to his career, and Willie Snead was suspended 3 games last year due to a DUI charge and struggled to get his footing after returning. It's not far-fetched that Cain could vault into the WR2 role early in his rookie year. Cain fits the size/speed prototype for a perimeter receiver, and has ability in the vertical passing game that would pair well with Flacco's strong arm.

Christian Kirk, Texas A&M - Miami Dolphins: This pairing just makes too much sense to avoid it. Kirk is probably the best wide receiver in this draft that projects as strictly a slot receiver in the NFL, and the Dolphins just traded away their slot receiver who was the focal point of their passing game. Kirk can fill the same role at nearly the same level for a fraction of what the Browns just paid Jarvis Landry. If he lands in Miami, Kirk has 75+ reception upside as a rookie.

Dante Pettis, Washington - New England Patriots: Pettis lacks elite size and athleticism for a perimeter receiver, but he does just about everything well. He has great skill as a route runner, great hands, and is an excellent jump-ball receiver downfield as well. He was one of the best punt returners in the country last year, and he uses those skills effectively to gain yards after the catch also. The Patriots always seem to do a good job of finding bargains at the skill positions, and Pettis would certainly qualify as a guy who is expected to be drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. The depth chart might be a little crowded early on with the addition of Jordan Matthews and the returns of Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell, but none of the roles are settled outside of Chris Hogan's. At the very least, Pettis would get on the field as a punt returner as a rookie, and would work his way up the depth chart from there. He could be a long-term starter.

DJ Chark, LSU - Philadelphia Eagles: Chark ran the best 40 time in this receiver class at 4.34, and can be used as a speedy deep threat while the rest of his game develops. The Eagles' offense takes plenty of deep shots, and traded starting WR Torrey Smith away this offseason. He wasn't heavily targeted last year, but there were some deep throws that went Smith's way. DJ would have a chance to compete with Mack Hollins and Mike Wallace for the role, but I expect Wallace to win that position battle. I like this landing spot more for Chark's development. Wallace signed for just one year, so if Chark is able to make strides in his game, he could step into the high upside starting role in year 2.

Michael Gallup, Colorado State - Indianapolis Colts: Gallup was prolific in his two years at Colorado State, averaging 88-1,345-10.5. He lacks the top end speed to develop into a number 1 receiver in the NFL, but he has the skills to develop into a solid WR2 as a possession receiver and would complement TY Hilton really well. He could quickly become one of Andrew Luck's favorite targets (assuming Luck ever returns).

Marcell Ateman, Oklahoma State - Denver Broncos: Ateman is a big receiver who tries to win with his physicality rather than technique. He's going to need to develop that technique a bit to succeed at the NFL level, and Denver would be a great place for him to sit and learn early on. The Broncos will need to get younger at WR soon with Demaryius at 30 and Manny Sanders at 31 years old, and DT would be a great mentor to help Ateman learn some of the nuance of the position. He has tantalizing upside if he's willing to put in the work to realize it.

Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame - Oakland Raiders: St. Brown has gotten plenty of hype due to his dimensions and athleticism, but he has a lot of work to do on his game. Jon Gruden is an old school coach who will love the measurables ESB offers. If he lands in Oakland, St. Brown should get some usage as a red zone threat early on. The Raiders currently don't have a receiver taller than 6'2" on the roster, and St. Brown is 6'5". There's also an opportunity to progress into a starting role in the next couple years if he's able to develop his game since Jordy Nelson is going to be 33 years old this season.

DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State - Tennessee Titans: A lot of draft twitter would be up in arms if this happens since they love Taywan Taylor, but Hamilton might be able to step in as the slot receiver right away in Tennessee. His game profiles similarly to that of Cooper Kupp, and the Titans' new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur held the same role with the Rams last year where Kupp was his slot receiver. The job wouldn't be handed to him though. Taywan was impressive when he got opportunities last year and Hamilton will have to beat him out to contribute much as a rookie. With that said, Hamilton has the talent to grow into the number two role opposite Corey Davis if the Titans choose not to re-sign Rishard Matthews at year's end.

Keke Coutee, Texas Tech - Buffalo Bills: I'm not sure that Coutee is necessarily a scheme fit in Buffalo but he has the ability to take the top off a defense, which is something that Buffalo's WR group could definitely use. He's skilled enough that he could develop into an outside receiver despite his diminuitive 5'10" height. Receiver is definitely a position of need for Buffalo after Zay Jones' offseason arrest and Jordan Matthews' departure to New England. Number 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin is also coming off a season-ending injury. Injecting an exciting playmaker like Coutee into the offense would certainly help.

Richie James, Middle Tennessee State - Seattle Seahawks: James is an undersized 'tweener' who could find a fit in the slot or as a perimeter receiver, but that's an archetype that the Seahawks know pretty well. Both Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin also fit that mold. Adding James to 3-wide sets could make the Seahawks receivers interchangable and allow them to be more unpredictable as an offense. James is a skilled receiver who is dangerous in the open field, and Russell Wilson's improvisational skills behind the line create holes in the secondary where a player like James can make splash plays. There is a little bit of Antonio Brown to his game, and he could eventually become the top pass catcher in Seattle if they choose not to pay Doug Baldwin again when his contract is up in a few years.

Jordan Lasley, UCLA - Chicago Bears: Lasley struggled with some drops and maturity issues in college, but he has the game to be the long-term WR2 opposite Allen Robinson if he has those issues under control. It's no guarantee that Kevin White will ever stay healthy or regain the form he had before the injuries, and the Bears need to make other plans. Lasley is adept in the vertical game, but also has some shorter routes that he can win with in his repertoire. New head coach Matt Nagy's offense was explosive in KC last year, and adding playmakers like Lasley who fit it has been a priority this offseason for the Bears.

Allen Lazard, Iowa State - Atlanta Falcons: Lazard projects as a big slot receiver at the NFL level (or possibly even tight end), and the Falcons' slot receiver Taylor Gabriel left for Chicago this offseason. Gabriel and Lazard are very different players, and Lazard wouldn't be a great fit in the scheme that Shanahan used to run in Atlanta, but after a down year offensively in 2017 I expect Sarkisian to change things up a bit this year. The biggest benefit Lazard would provide is that he would help draw coverage away from Julio Jones in the red zone. With his 6'5" frame, you have to account for him in close, which should give Jones more room to operate. Lazard might develop into a fantasy asset down the road, but he would immediately be a boost to Atlanta's red zone offense.

J'Mon Moore, Missouri - Washington Redskins: Moore has the ideal size to play on the outside, where Washington is still a little unsettled. Jamison Crowder should be locked into the slot role, but Josh Doctson still hasn't made good on his potential and free agent acquisition Paul Richardson needs to show that he can continue to build on what he did last year in Seatte. Moore lacks deep speed and will be at his best working in the short and intermediate areas of the field. That should pair well with new QB Alex Smith, who is normally too risk averse to take shots downfield. Smith made strides as a deep thrower last year, but I'm not convinced that will continue as he transitions to a new offense and loses the playmaking speed of Tyreek Hill.

Daurice Fountain, Northern Iowa - Minnesota Vikings: Fountain is a raw athlete making the jump from FCS to the NFL. He's going to have to refine his technique as a receiver to make an impact at the NFL level, and where better for him to do that than Minnesota where they already have two receivers who are very technically sound? If he is able to develop as a receiver, he should be able to push Kendall Wright to the bench in 3-wide sets by year two. If Laquon Treadwell makes strides this year it would be more of an uphill climb for Fountain, but I'll believe it when I see it with Treadwell.

Byron Pringle, Kansas State - New York Giants: The Giants have a hole at WR for their 3-wide sets with Brandon Marshall being released, and I'm not sure Roger Lewis is the guy to fill it. Pringle is old for a prospect and had trouble with the law when he was younger, but he's had 4 or 5 years on the straight and narrow since. He runs crisp routes, has dynamic ability with the ball in his hands, and has good athleticism for an NFL WR. He also can be had with a day 3 pick, which will allow the Giants to fill some other holes before picking him.

That's all I've got for the wide receivers. There are so many players so close in skill level in this class that this was easily the toughest position to match players to teams. There is bound to be a lot of disagreement out there, so if you want to shout your disagreements at me feel free to reach out on twitter to do so (@Shawn_Foss). Also, go back and check out the QB and RB landing spot articles if you haven't already done so, and keep an eye out for the TE article later today. Enjoy the draft!