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Could be a tough week for the confidence pool, but fortunately, this looks like an easy week for the survivor pool. That's the thought I'm left with while making this week's picks. Last week we got both of our picks through when the Ravens and the Raiders both booked easy wins at home.

Wk1 Pit Buf
Wk2 Bal Oak

The New England Patriots opened as 13.5 point favorites as hosts to the Houston Texans. This is a no-brainer pick. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are just too smart to give this game away to the Texans defense. No way that rookie Deshaun Watson has what it takes to outscore the Pats and until he proves otherwise I will assume they need their defense to win games for them a la the 2001 Ravens.

My second pick was a little harder to decide on, so many good options. Broncos, Packers, Steelers, Dolphins, even the Ravens in London. But after much soul surfing*, my lack of faith in the Chicago Bears was just too strong. I think this could be the game that Le'Veon Bell gets right fantasy wise, after his last two weeks of training camp. It is just a matter of weeks before Bears fans will get to see the much-anticipated Mitch Trubisky. Hopefully, it's not an omen that spell check suggests Trubisky gets corrected to Rubbishy.

The Packers were just behind the Steelers for me this week facing what will ultimately be a better opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals. I haven't been impressed yet by Green Bay this season. I expect them to win this game at home but maybe this new offensive coordinator gets the Bengals scoring some points and makes this game competitive.

Also, would like to mention I have seen the Broncos at -2.5 at the Bills. I'll take that all day after watching what they did to the Cowboys last week.

Good Luck this week!
Drink five

*Note: I mistyped soul searching as soul surfing and kinda liked it. #soulsurfing

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve got another week of data on this rookie crop, so we’re starting to get a better idea of who these guys are. Hopefully all of your teams are off to 2-0 starts, but obviously not everyone’s is. The key if you’ve started 0-2 is not to panic (unless you’re the Bengals). Be patient with your stud players. I’m looking at you owners of OBJ, Le’Veon Bell, Isaiah Crowell, Kirk Cousins, Doug Baldwin, and Tyler Eifert. Speaking of Tyler Eifert & the Bengals, they did in fact panic after an 0-2 start, and have replaced their offensive coordinator with former Dolphins’ OC Bill Lazor. Hopefully this can jump-start the offense and help Eifert and Joe Mixon get going. Of course Mixon needs to get on the field more for that to happen. Let’s dive in and take a look at what to expect in week 3…

Rookies to Start:

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 3: @LAC): You have to play Kareem Hunt. He’s the number one scoring running back so far by a wide margin, and this week he faces a defense that just allowed 122 yards rushing to Jay Ajayi last weekend. Hunt is decidedly a different style runner than Ajayi, but he should have success running in this matchup. TD regression is coming at some point for Hunt, but he should be a locked in RB1 in your lineups right now.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. NO): McCaffrey hasn’t gotten off to the start that most fantasy owners had hoped he would, ranking as the RB27 in PPR leagues so far. His usage has been strong, but he hasn’t made any of the spectacular plays we were used to from him at Stanford. Things should get better this week. New Orleans hasn’t shown they can cover anyone. They’ve allowed 92.5 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, and CMC should see extra passing game targets with Greg Olsen out. This game is a real opportunity for McCaffrey to blow up. He should be at least a solid RB2 with week-winning upside if things go his way.

RB Dalvin Cook, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): Cook managed a surprisingly solid 5.3 yards per carry against a normally stout Steelers front despite having Case Keenum under center. The Steelers were without Stephon Tuitt on their defensive line, but it was impressive from Cook nonetheless. His fantasy totals weren’t inspiring since he saw just 12 carries in a lopsided loss and he was vultured at the goal line by CJ Ham, but his performance showed that he can succeed against good defenses. Tampa isn’t quite as stingy as Pittsburgh typically is, and it sounds like there is a good chance that Sam Bradford will return in this one. Even if Bradford is out, Cook should put up RB2 numbers.

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Fournette faces a tough matchup this week, so he’s more of a volume RB2, but with a score each week so far he should be in your lineup. The Ravens allowed the 6^th-fewest RB fantasy points last year, and the 11^th-fewest so far in 2017, but Fournette has seen 40 carries and 8 targets already. As long as the volume keeps up, and it should, Leonard should be able to post a respectable line again.

Borderline Rookies:

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 3: @Ind.): Kizer is a borderline option in 2-QB leagues this week, and is an interesting DFS tournament play with a meager $5,000 cost on DraftKings. The Colts have allowed over 300 passing yards in each of their first two games with top corner Vontae Davis sidelined, to Jared Goff and Carson Palmer. If Davis is out again, Kizer makes for an interesting play now that he has found a trusted possession receiver in Rashard Higgins. The Colts have stifled the running game, allowing just 2.73 yards per carry and have forced teams to throw instead. The throwing has worked out pretty well for those teams. I don’t know that I’d expect 300 passing yards out of Kizer, but I think he’ll post his best yardage total to date, and his rushing skill gives him an added boost. He’s worth considering if you are struggling for a second QB this week.

RB Chris Carson, SEA (Wk. 3: @Ten.): Carson put the Seahawks on his back in week 2, and may have earned the starting RB job in the process. The Titans’ run defense isn’t an easy matchup this week. They allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points in the league last year, and although they are off to a slower start in 2017 they held the Jacksonville running backs to 3.3 yards per carry. In addition to the tough matchup, there is always the chance that Rawls plays more as he gets healthier, and Carson was barely used in the passing game with Prosise around to handle 3^rd down work. I see Carson as a risky flex play this week, but one with big upside if the game script is in Seattle’s favor.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Dalvin Cook above, the Steelers’ defense has been pretty stout against opposing runners, but they have been susceptible to receiving yards out of the backfield. Pittsburgh allowed the 4^th-most RB receiving yardage and the 13^th-most receptions to the position a year ago. This is a matchup that already favors Cohen over his backfield mate Jordan Howard, and Howard is battling a shoulder injury that had him in a sling after their last game. The rookie’s usage has been outstanding through 2 weeks, with 12 rush attempts and 16 catches on 21 targets. He should be a strong PPR flex option once again.

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 3: @SF): Kupp saw the same 6 targets in week 2 that he did in week 1, but he did quite a bit less with them. I got ahead of myself by calling him a ‘Rookie to Start’ last week. He gets another solid matchup this week, but I won’t make the mistake of going all in on him this time. The 49ers have been improved against WRs so far compared to 2016, but they’ve still been in the bottom half of the league against the position. Kupp should see another 6-7 targets, which puts him firmly on the flex radar again, especially in PPR leagues. Give him a slight bump up if both 49ers safties are out.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Golladay is going to remain a boom-or-bust option for the time being, and he’s shown both extremes through 2 weeks. Atlanta has a talented secondary and has allowed just 4 completions of 20+ yards so far this season, but they did struggle to contain Green Bay’s wide receivers late in their win over the Packers. What you do with Golladay depends on what your other options are, but he’s a volatile flex play for deeper leagues.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 3: @Phi.): He’s in the concussion protocol at the moment, so there’s a chance he doesn’t play this week, but most updates I’ve seen are suggesting he’ll be able to go. He’ll likely need a TD to return real value as a streaming TE, and the Eagles had allowed just 4 TE touchdowns in their last 17 games before being shredded by Zeus last Sunday. Engram has some appeal as a streamer in deeper PPR leagues, as 4-40 seems like something he can keep putting up, especially if Brandon Marshall continues to struggle. The Giants’ protection issues are making it hard for Eli to throw anything down the field, so Engram will continue to make his living on shorter catches. Engram is a borderline top-15 option this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Deshaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 3: @NE): Even against New England’s defense, which has allowed 362 passing yards per game so far, Watson would be a shaky QB2 option. He salvaged his fantasy day last week with a 50-yard TD run, but plays like that are pretty fluky, and Bill Belichick knows how to gamplan for rookie QBs. In the last 10 games the Patriots have played against a rookie QB, New England is 9-1 and has allowed just 8 total TDs to those rookie signal callers.

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 3: @GB): While it was nice to see Mixon actually outperform Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard in week 2, the timeshare continues to hamper his upside. He could be worth a dart throw in GPP daily tournaments after seeing what Atlanta’s backs did to Green Bay (145 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs), but the Cincy offense hasn’t been anywhere near as effective as Atlanta’s. The Bengals did swap offensive coordinators this week, promoting QB coach Bill Lazor to the OC position. Hopefully Lazor will start to get Mixon more involved, but in his initial media session after getting the promotion, he didn’t really clarify what his plans were for the RB position. He said that he hadn’t done a 3-back committee before, “but that’s where we’ve been so far.” I’ll need to see Lazor actually increase Mixon’s role in a game before I trust him in season-long leagues.

RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 3: @NE): Foreman saw a decent workload last week, but week 3 may be a different story. Houston was able to pound the ball on the ground thanks to the stagnant Bengals’ offense keeping the game close. The Texans are likely to be playing from much further behind this week going to New England. If Houston is in catch-up mode, it should be mostly Lamar Miller and a little Tyler Ervin sprinkled in. Foreman offers nothing in the passing game. If you play D’Onta, you’re counting on a TD that is unlikely to come.

RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): This outlook could change if Rob Kelly has a setback or winds up missing the game Sunday, but if Kelley plays you’d have to expect ‘Fat Rob’ to start. The Raiders are vulnerable against the run, so Perine becomes a flex play option if Kelley sits. He’s a worse option in PPR leagues than in standard, since he offers little in the passing game. Oakland allowed the 9th-most RB points last season, and the 6^th-most rushing yards, and they just allowed the lowly Jets’ running backs to post 95 yards on 21 carries (4.5 ypc). If Kelley is a go, Perine likely won’t see enough work to be started.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 3: vs. Cle.): The Browns may look like a good matchup on paper, but Mack is still working well behind Frank Gore, and a Brissett-led offense is unlikely to make this game a blowout win where he’ll get garbage time run. Gore out-touched Mack 14-7 last week and out-gained him 46-8. Outside of a 24-yard carry in week one, Mack has a total of 15 carries for negative-3 yards.

RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): You probably don’t need me to tell you this, but even though the Jets have claimed that this will be a 3-man committee going forward, Elijah McGuire is not someone you should be considering for your fantasy lineup. The offense is a mess for the Jets so far, and a 6^th-round rookie RB isn’t going to be the guy to jump start it.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Sea.): This is an easy decision now that Davis has been ruled out with a hamstring issue. I likely would have recommended you to sit him against the Legion of Boom even if he were going to play.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 3: @Chi.): JJSS played 51% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps in week 2, but saw just 4 targets and gained only 16 yards. The TD was nice, but it’s not something to expect every week based on his usage up to this point. He has received 2-of-8 red zone targets that Ben has dished out so far, so he may find some stray TDs here or there, but the weekly chances aren’t great and he won’t put up enough yardage to buoy his point totals whether it’s in a season-long league or DFS. The Steelers are also likely to lean on the run game in this one as a 7.5-point road favorite. Steer clear.

WR John Ross, CIN (Wk. 3: @GB): Ross finally got on the field last week, but was given just one touch, a rushing attempt. Green Bay’s secondary is beatable, allowing the most WR points in the NFL a year ago, but Cincinnati’s offense just hasn’t gotten anything going on offense to make you think they’ll take full advantage here. Ross hasn’t been involved enough so far to use anywhere. Hopefully Lazor gets him more involved, but you should avoid Ross for now.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): The last thing Zay Jones needed after opening the season with a 3-39 line on 10 targets in the first two weeks was a meeting with Denver’s corners. That’s exactly what he’ll get this week. There’s no reason to use Zay in any format against the best CB group in the league.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 3: @Ind.): The Colts have allowed 60+ yards per week to TEs so far, but have also allowed just 3 receptions per week to them. Njoku is still only playing about half of the offensive snaps and is splitting work with Seth DeValve, who seems the more likely Browns’ TE to get hit with a deep ball after posting a 49-yard catch last week. Njoku is a TD dart throw this week, and there are better options available. He won’t see enough volume to be a punt play in DFS tournaments either.

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 3: @Min.): Howard ran just 11 pass routes last week despite playing more snaps than Cameron Brate, who ran 22 pass routes. He played more because the game script called for a lot of running, and Howard is the superior blocker. The volume simply isn’t going to be there for Howard early on this year if they are going to use him as blocker this much.

TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 3: @SF): Everett has made a big impact every time the ball is thrown his way, posting 4 catches for 134 yards on just 4 targets so far, but he’s still being more than doubled in snap count by teammate Tyler Higbee, and he’s battling through a thigh injury. To make matters worse for him, the 49ers have been much improved so far against tight ends this year, holding Greg Olsen to 2-18 and Jimmy Graham to 1-1. That’s right…3 catches for 19 yards between two of the best tight ends in the game. There will be better spots to take a shot on Everett.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): Kittle rarely leaves the field, but he’s seen just 8 targets through 2 games and is dealing with a couple of injuries. He also faces a Rams’ defense that ranked 6^th against tight ends last year, and hasn’t allowed a TD to the position yet this year. There’s not enough upside to try him in DFS, and too much downside to try him in season-long leagues.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 3: @Car.): Kamara is probably a better option for DFS tournaments than for season-long leagues this week. The Panthers ranked 7^th last year in limiting RB fantasy points, and 5^th so far this year, but they allowed the 3rd-most RB catches in ’16 and are tied for 4th-most allowed so far this year. Kamara is the best receiving back the Saints have, and they are a 5.5-point underdog on the road. I’d expect Alvin to get a lot of run, and likely catch 6+ passes. He’s been targeted 13 times in the first 2 weeks.

WR Taywan Taylor, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Sea.): With Corey Davis sidelined by a hamstring issue, I’d expect Taywan Taylor to be the guy who benefits the most in terms of playing time. In week 2, it was Jonnu Smith who benefitted from Davis’s injury, playing 37 offensive snaps and scoring his first career TD, but the Titans were playing from ahead all day. I’d expect Taywan to play a bunch this week. Some are speculating that it will be Eric Decker in the slot and Taywan outside since Decker played there a lot in New York, but Taywan spent more time in the slot in camp while Davis was out. The reason this matters is because the Seahawks’ weak link in the secondary is slot corner Jeremy Lane. Whoever gets to face off with him will be the best matchup the Titans have in the passing game. If that guy is Taywan, he would be in line for a strong day. He’s a sneaky DFS tournament punt play.

WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Samuel saw his first targets of the year in week 2, and with Olsen hurt, it’s likely he becomes a bigger part of the offense. The Saints’ pass defense has been abysmal, and Samuel has a trait that Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin lack…speed. There’s a real chance he gets behind the defense for a big play or two. With just 3 targets on the year, he’s probably not to be trusted as anything more than a DFS punt play, but he costs just the minimum in DraftKings and has some nice upside.

TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Sea.): As spelled out in the Taywan Taylor description above, I’m not really on Jonnu for this week. Sure, he could find another TD, but Seattle is stingy to tight ends. I list him here because I think he’s a great dynasty league stash at this point. Delanie Walker is 33 years old, and has just one more year left on his contract. Jonnu is quickly earning the coaching staff’s trust with offensive snap percentages of 38% and 54% in the first two weeks. He’s also looked every bit the part of Walker’s heir apparent. I think he has a chance to be a really good player, and is in an ascending offense with Mariota, Derrick Henry, Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor around. Stash him if you can.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury report all week and check back before kickoffs to see if there are any surprise inactives. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything included above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

11/11, 5 TD in the Red Zone

Thursday night's game provided us with tons of big numbers (thank you Gurley, Watkins, Hyde, Garcon) but the most impressive numbers that I saw are Jared Goff's red zone passing stats. Through three games, he's a perfect 11/11 passing in the red zone for 82 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Rams barely eeked out a win in San Francisco, but they're now 2-1 behind impressive performances from lots of young players, not to mention the head coach. Goff has already matched his TD total from last season,  but only in 3 games instead of 7. With just one pick on the year, he's looking like one of the most improved rookies from last year, and the Rams are in a good position in a very winnable division.

2 Pick Sixes...in 10 Years!

Aaron Rodgers threw only his second pick six of his career on Sunday (thanks, pro-football reference.com for confirming and being generally awesome). Now in his 10th year of being the starter in Green Bay, Rodgers has always been known for throwing very few interceptions. Let's just put this stat into perspective, shall we? In today's game of lots of passing, Jameis Winston has three to his name. Derek Carr has 4 and Blake Bortles already has 11. All of these guys started playing in 2014 or later, which was 5 years after Rodgers threw his first pick-six. Brees, Palmer, Rivers and Manning all lead the active players with more than 20 each in their career. Of course, the king of the pick six is Rodger's predecessor, who threw 31 in his career.

24 Players Scored More than 20 Points

This was a fantastic weekend for football, and it really felt like big fantasy points were back too. 24 players scored at least 20 points in standard scoring. Granted, there were some outliers like Marcedes Lewis and a bunch of QB's that are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. I'm talking about guys like Russell Wilson, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Howard and T.Y. Hilton, who were all drafted high and finally delivered with big points this season. This week's 58:30 TD:INT ratio also was a great way to get unstuck from the muck that was Weeks 1 & 2. Even Odell Beckham Jr. got going, and got weird. He could have even joined this group if he had 1 more yard.

3 Receiving Touchdowns

Marcedes Lewis, you know, the guy who's been on the Jaguars since George W. Bush was in Office, caught 3 touchdowns Sunday morning (afternoon?) in London. This equals his total since the 2014 season started and is now about 10% of his career total. These aren't metric touchdowns either, they count for 6 points no matter how many meters or yards the touchdown actually is. On the other side, the Ravens #1 expert consensus ranked D/ST did what can only be described as crapping the bed. They managed zero sacks, picks and fumbles on their way to a -4 point fantasy finish. Blake Bortles sends his regards.

2.2 Points Per Touch

Here at drinkfive.com, we think that considering a player's potential starts with just how many points they can score when they touch the ball. A good player approaches 1.0. A great player averages just over than for their career. This season, still young, has Chris Thompson up to 2.2 points per touch. He has 350 yards from scrimmage on 27 total touches with 4 touchdowns. He's also racking up the long plays this year, with a long run of 61 yards and a long reception of 74 yards. I don't expect Thompson's touches to go up astronomically, but he could see an increase to maybe 12 per game, from the 9 he's currently getting. At his pace, that's like him scoring another touchdown. Last week was the time to pick him up in most leagues, but still look to see if he's in yours!

Bonus stat:

61 Yards

I like to pick on kickers from time to time in this column. I also like to give them props, when appropriate (but not as much as I like picking on them). But I digress, congrats to rookie kicker Jake Elliott who kicked two field goals in the last minute of the game, one to tie and one to take the lead. They were from 46 to tie and an incredible 61 yards for the win. Bravo young man, you no longer need to buy drinks in Philly, as long as you don't miss next week.

Every year I like to take some time to remind everyone of a little clause that is in almost all season-long confidence pools.

That exception is that the lowest score of the season is removed from your total points in a last-ditch effort to give you a little boost. I usually write about this when we have a bad week.

Didn’t really think I would be writing about it in the first quarter of the season though! Is what it is though, and luckily, for the most part, everyone had a bad week.

That’s why they play the game, and that’s why the game is great!

Week 4 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – SEATTLE over Indianapolis – The Colts looked impressive for the first time this season last week … … … against the Browns … … … against the Browns.

15 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – The week kicks off with the biggest rivalry in the game. The Bears looked good last week, but they don’t have the defense to contain an Aaron Rodgers air assault.

14 – NEW ENGLAND over Carolina – How big of a nose dive have the Panthers and Cam Newton taken? A game in Foxboro isn’t exactly the best way to fix their problems.

13 – ATLANTA over Buffalo – The Falcons look primed to make a return to the Super Bowl this year. A home game against Buffalo won’t slow them down a bit.

12 – DALLAS over Los Angeles Rams – Dak Prescott won the game for the ‘Boys last week, now it’s Zeke’s turn. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that EZEKIAL ELLIOT WILL HAVE HIS BREAKOUT GAME WITH OVER 150 YARDS RUSHING.

11 – ARIZONA over San Francisco – The 49ers looked impressive last week. But even with how impressive they looked they could beat the Rams. Good luck on the road against the Cardinals.

10 – KANSAS CITY over Washington – Boy the Chiefs are good!

9 – TAMPA BAY over New York Giants – Why would you have confidence in the Giants? Put 11 guys on Beckham and let the rest of the Giants’ offense beat you and your gold.

8 – MINNESOTA over Detroit – The NFC North is going to be a bit of a barn-burner this year. A win here will go a long way for these two teams. Lucky for the Vikings they are the home team this week.

7 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – DeShaun Watson is for real. He showed that he could maintain himself and almost beat Tom Brady on the road. It was a perfect warmup for a big early season divisional matchup this week.

6 – MIAMI over New Orleans – It feels weird to put a team that was just dominated by the Jets to win this week. Call it the “because they’re the home team” win of the week.

5 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – Big Ben is hard to stop when the Steelers have a home game. On the road…eh…not so much.

4 – DENVER over Oakland – This hurts me to say, but after their performance last Sunday night, it’s hard to have confidence in the Raiders in such a pivotal road game.

3 – Philadelphia over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Carson Wentz is on the verge of being a perennial Pro Bowl quarterback. Going across the country to get a big win will help persuade voters (I hate fan voting!)

2 – CLEVELAND over Cincinnati – When you think the Browns are going to win a game, they should ALWAYS be on the one point line. That is unless…

1 – NEW YORK JETS over Jacksonville – …you also think that the Jets are going to win in the same week.