Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

At least for right now, The Patriots will be without their #1 guy due to the 4-game suspension just handed out to Tom Brady by the NFL earlier today.

In addition to Brady's suspension, The Patriots will be fined $1 million and are being forced to give up two future draft picks, including their first-round pick in 2016. The statement from the NFL is available here: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000492190/article/nfl-releases-statement-on-patriots-violations.

This has been the big story for a few weeks now, and indeed the NFL did not back down despite many pundits thinking that the penalties incurred would be more slight (similar to past repercussions that violated NFL policies, such as Spygate and the Chargers use of Stickum). Players have indirectly admitted to NFL policy violations for years but when cases such as this one become very high profile (and considering the extra-bright spotlight that the NFL has been under after this past season's events), they have started to crack down more heavily.

From my perspective, this seems like a little too steep of a penalty for the crime (proportionately), but let's not rule out some kind of appeal that could bring this to more of a middle ground. Regardless, I'm sure we'll all hear quite a bit of debate about this on radio and television sports programs. So get ready for that. I guess it will also give us another window to see how far along Jimmy Garoppolo is in his development under Brady.

The AFC West division was fairly successful in 2014, and has been topped by the Denver Broncos for the past four seasons. Will the Broncos again come out on top in the West? How will the changes in the off-season this year affect the major fantasy players from each team? Read on to find out, and click on the podcast for more insights that didn't make it to the article. Cheers!

Denver Broncos

Additions:
Gary Kubiak (Coach)
Wade Phillips (Defensive Coordinator)
Owen Daniels (TE, from BAL)

Departures:
John Fox (Coach)
Julius Thomas (TE, JAX)
Jacob Tamme (TE, ATL)

What’s it all mean?
Well, the Broncos have been throwing in all their chips to try and win themselves a Super Bowl (or, “World Championship” as Elway calls it) for the past 3 years. They are led by a 39-year-old quarterback in Peyton Manning (albeit one who threw for a combined 10k yards and 94 TDs over the past 2 seasons) and are going to give the damn thing one more try, it seems. I’ve learned not to count Manning out, but he does seem to be slowing down toward the end of the season in his old age – if you’re interested in grabbing him for a fantasy league it may be best to capitalize on production early and sell him high after the halfway point in the season. Regardless, he should still end up in the top tier of QBs when the dust clears from the 2015 season, barring injury.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 6/23/15: AFC West Spotlight!) 

Running Back is an interesting position to discuss here as some still believe that 3rd year player Montee Ball could end up back on top of the depth chart. Personally, I would not count on that as C.J. Anderson seems to have impressed enough in the 2nd half of the 2014 season that he should monopolize the touches in the backfield. Anderson’s ADP is currently about 15 in a standard league. That’s the middle of the 2nd round. Let’s look at two players currently going after him: Jeremy Hill, and Alfred Morris. Would you want either of those over Anderson? I wouldn’t. It looks like there is a steep drop-off right around there as well. Ronnie Hillman may get some scattered work throughout the season but will not be fantasy relevant unless there is a major injury or production problem with Anderson.

Demariyus Thomas is easily the #1 go-to WR target for Manning this year and his numbers should reflect that. He has been very consistent over the past few years and we should expect over 1400 yards and at least 10 TDs as a floor. His ADP is currently holding around 13, which means that he is being drafted right below Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant. Personally, I would rank him higher than Beckham simply based on the years of production consistency that we have been able to see from Thomas. Emmanuel Sanders had a career year in 2014, effectively almost doubling his receiving yards and TDs from his previous high in 2013 while playing for the Steelers. Obviously he’ll still be used a great deal in the passing game, but these seem like unsustainable numbers to me in this new offense and even Sanders recognizes that, saying “You talk about going from a no-huddle offense to an offense that is predicated off running a football then throwing it. It’s different.”

We’ve heard some good things about Cody Latimer (lining up as the 3rd wide receiver currently), but he still hasn’t really shown us the money. We could chalk some of that up to rookie jitters but he’ll likely only get one more shot to prove himself here before someone else steps up to the plate. Veteran Andre Caldwell is hanging around as well but likely won’t get much playing time unless Sanders or Thomas are out for an extended period. The situation at tight end looks pretty clear to me: newly acquired Own Daniels should immediately play a large role in the passing game and nab a few TDs in the red zone, probably showing up his 2014 stats of 527 yards and 4 TDs. I’ll conservatively estimate his production on a Peyton Manning team at 850 yards and 7 TDs, which would be career highs at both stats. Daniels is an interesting player to keep in mind since his ADP is currently around 107 – here is someone you can grab in the 10th or 11th rounds that could perform within the top 10 at his position.

San Diego Chargers

Additions:
Melvin Gordon (rookie, RB)
Stevie Johnson (WR, SF)

Departures:
Eddie Royal (WR, CHI)
Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI)

Outlook:
Outlook hazy. That’s what the magic 8-ball says when I ask it about the San Diego Chargers, anyway. Philip Rivers will probably throw for his usual 4k yards and 30 TDs, putting his value this year squarely above the Andy Dalton line as a startable QB2 that you can pick up in the 10th or 11th round of most drafts.

Keenan Allen, who had a dip in production last year, looks to bounce back this year in his 3rd NFL season. I don’t see why this couldn’t be a possibility, especially since the other targets on the team are aging veterans Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates. The Chargers did sign former Bills and 49ers receiver Stevie Johnson to a three-year, 10 million dollar contract and will likely use him in place of Eddie Royal in the slot and to create mismatches where possible. People may have forgotten about Johnson’s successes in 2010-2012 with Buffalo, where he was averaging over 1000 yards and 8 TDs per season over three years. Only 28-years-old, I think that Johnson could have a bounce back year here and will certainly improve over last year’s dismal performance on the 49ers (435 yards and 3 TDs).

What am I saying here? Ok.. so I think that Allen is being undervalued and should prove a valuable part of someone’s team this year – you can currently find him going in the 6th round and I would have no problem picking him up there. Stevie Johnson is going undrafted in most leagues and could very well become someone to pick up and play mid-year in PPR leagues, but since he is sitting at the WR3 position for the Chargers I wouldn’t suggest drafting him on your team – rather just keeping an eye out in case he surprises early.

Melvin Gordon is the brand new bread & butter back for the Chargers who should immediately take the reins of the running game. He is not known as a passing-down back, though, and so the newly healthy Danny Woodhead should resume his role from 2013 as the pass catcher in the backfield. I don’t expect 76 receptions again, especially since Branden Oliver was able to showcase some ability in 2014 so he may spell Woodhead slightly, but I do expect fantasy relevant production from Woodhead as a RB3 in PPR leagues.

Gates is a gamble. He just turned 35. Not a good thing for an NFL tight end. Besides that, Ladarius Green is right behind him, waiting to cut into his playing time. Gates may have some good games this year, but I’m not drafting either Gates or Green for my squads.

Kansas City Chiefs

Additions:
Jeremy Maclin (WR, PHI)

Departures:
Dwayne Bowe (WR, CLE)

The Future:
All aboard the Alex Smith traaaaiiinnnn…. Yeah. That’s a train that I’m not too excited to take. He’s a consistent quarterback though, consistently mediocre. Consistently hands the football off to Jamaal Charles. Remember, in 2014 there were no wide receivers that caught a touchdown. None! And as much as we may think Dwayne Bowe has been criminally overrated for years now, Alex Smith is the reason.

Moving right along, Jeremy Maclin was acquired by the Chiefs in the off-season from the Eagles. To most, it was quite a surprise that Maclin was made available by Philadelphia but he should definitely help out the ailing Chiefs’ receiving core and maybe event tempt Alex Smith into throwing a few touchdowns, who knows? Expect statistical regression for Maclin but this may end up being a surprise for everyone involved here one way or the other. Let’s be honest, it’s more likely that Maclin ends up underperforming here with Smith under center. Too bad.

The real breakout here could be Travis Kelce. A rookie last year, Kelce built up a great rapport with Smith and ended up with over 800 yards and 5 TDs. This year should see even better stats, especially with Charles and Maclin stretching the field in several directions to pull defenders from Kelce’s routes. Kelce currently has an ADP of 53, going in the 6th round (based on all of the 6th round ADPs that we have mentioned so far, it looks like it’s filled with value at the moment) but could end up being a top 5 TE this year, easy.

Jamaal Charles has been carrying the offense of the Chiefs for a few years now, and that doesn’t look to slow down any in 2015. Not a bruising running back, Charles loves to find himself with the football in space, excelling in making the most of the yards after the catch. Because of this playing style, he may enjoy a few more years at the position than others. Nipping at his heels, though, is Knile Davis. Playing a very similar style to Charles, the Chiefs have had a lot of success with Davis when Charles was injured in 2014. They also use him to spell Charles during games. It’s clear, though, that when Charles is healthy and out on the field, Davis is relegated to backup duties exclusively. That said, Charles owners would be wise to think about scooping up Davis later in the draft if possible – I rarely ever advise going for a handcuff option during a draft but here is one that would immediately be a RB1.

Oakland Raiders

Additions:
Amari Cooper (WR, Rookie)

Roy Helu (RB, WAS)

Trent Richardson (RB, IND)

Michael Crabtree (WR, SF)

Clive Walford (TE, Rookie)

Departures:
Darren McFadden (RB, DAL)

Denarius Moore (WR, CIN)

Where is Oakland headed?

Thankfully, the answer is "in the right direction". Derek Carr performed fairly well as a rookie (3270 yards, 21 TDs, 12 INTs) and the Raiders' management has continued to rebuild the team with solid components. Most notably, Amari Cooper was drafted to be the WR of the future for the Raiders and he has been widely recognized as one of the better receiver prospects to come out of college in the past several years. We are expecting Carr to slowly improve his performance and he may end up being a franchise quarterback for the Raiders that we are talking about for the next 5-10 years.

Denarius Moore looked like he could be a breakout receiver for the team after his production increased in 2012 (posting 700+ yards and 7 TDs) from his rookie year, but after a steady decline since then and some injury concerns, he departs for Cincy. Amari Cooper was drafted to be the #1 WR here and he should step into the role without missing a beat. Most are predicting 80+ catches in his first year and we don't disagree with that assessment. Cooper should be the best receiving talent that Oakland has rostered in years. Slotting into the #2 spot is ex-49'er Michael Crabtree. Coming out of college, Crabtree was heralded as possible star but hasn't shown many glimpses of that outside of his 2012 season (1105 yards, 9 TDs). Don't expect any other receivers (Rod Streater, Andre Holmes) to produce much fantasy value outside of Cooper in 2015.

The RB situation looks promising for the first time in a few years - with the exit of aging backs Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew, a new era begins in Oakland with athletic freak Latavius Murray and complementary passing down back Roy Helu. If Murray is able to handle the load (he only averaged 3.8 yards per carry in the last 4 games of the season - his 5.2 average was due to some breakout runs in the games prior) he could easily be a top 10 running back going forward in the NFL. Helu is only relevant in deeper PPR leagues unless Murray washes out. The Raiders also picked up Trent Richardson, though likely only for depth and because he was an inexpensive commodity on the market after poor performances in the past few seasons.

Incumbent tight end Mychal Rivera and new rookie pick Clive Walford will compete for touches in this offense, but neither will be fantasy relevant outside of deep PPR leagues. In fact, these tight ends could cannibalize each other's value here because there won't be enough touches to go around after Cooper and Crabtree get theirs. We would stay away from this situation for the time being.

Thoughts do not get too much more random than this!

The process of studying for this year’s fantasy football drafts is in full effect. While going through some of the trends of drafts from yester-year, the time spent looking over when kickers were selected was equivalent to the amount spent watching The ESPY’s over the last 15 years – it didn’t happen.

Then out of nowhere, the unthinkable happened. For the first time since, um, ever, some thought needs to be put into kickers this year!
Pretty sure you’re laughing right now…so I’ll wait …

…

…

OK.

Hard to believe, but it’s true! I’m not saying that you need to spend hours upon hours comparing bye weeks, looking at who plays who during fantasy playoff weeks, analyzing field temperatures and average wind gusts at every stadium. But keep this in mind, with the recent rule changes, the extra point is no longer a sure thing.
Coach’s now have the option of kicking the extra point, which was moved back to the 15 yard line, or try for a two point conversion from the two yard line. Quick analysis says that an extra point from the 15 really isn’t that big of an adjustment.

What you need to look at though is the team’s willingness to go for two more often, which would obviously take fantasy points away from your kicker. When deciding on which kicker to take, which still should be the last round of your draft), look at the tendencies of the team they kick for.
Two teams jump out immediately as having the chance to take a few points away from their kicker –

New England – This will probably be the biggest impact in kicker decisions as Stephen Gostkowski has been one of, if not the first kicker taken in most drafts. The chance to score more points and add embarrassment to an embarrassing situation has always been a characteristic of the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick. Normally I would say that this would definitely be something to keep an eye on when the Pats play the Jets…and maybe fellow division rivals Miami and Buffalo, but with everything that has gone on now with the deflate-a-gate shenanigans, I am sure that Belichick and maybe even owner Robert Kraft from what it sounds like will want to stick it to the league as a whole this season…if given the opportunity.

Philadelphia – Do YOU know what Chip Kelly is thinking? Because I’m pretty sure that he isn’t too sure himself. All that we know for sure is that Kelly loves his high powered offense he brought from Oregon and he has roughly 14 quarterbacks on his roster…one of which being Tim Tebow. Though being the field general for a full football field is not exactly Tebow’s forte, a two-yard field might be right up his alley. Utilizing Tebow in a two point conversion situation may keep opposing defense’s on their toes enough to generate a high conversion percentage. This should bump Eagles kicker Cody Parkey’s ranking down a few spots.

No one has given this much attention to kickers since Adam Sandler. With the new PAT rules, kickers may become even more lonesome than even Sandler had thought.

Well it's here, folks. The 2015 fantasy football season is upon us. Here at drinkfive we're happy to bring you our preseason rankings, freshly baked from the oven. We'll continue to update these rankings over the coming weeks leading up to the start of the 2015 regular NFL season.

Some quick notes: Jamaal Charles grades out as our #1 overall draft pick in standard leagues - he is still very much the focal point of the Chiefs' offense, and the recent injury to backup Knile Davis can only play to Charles' advantage. Regardless, expect the world from a guy that has consistently put up the kind of points on a weekly basis that wins leagues. Newcomer C.J. Anderson on the Broncos is projected to be the bellcow back in Denver and has crept up to #3 overall in standard leagues. We're betting that Anderson builds on his excellent performances in 2014 to be a fantasy standout this season. Wide receiver Odell Beckham is out of control. Based on our ranking algorithm, he should be the #1 WR selected in standard leagues and should be all types of fun to watch play in 2015. Rob Gronkowski is leaps and bounds better than any other tight end in the league and will likely go toward the end of the first round in most fantasy leagues. Most other tight ends below Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are not valuable enough in our opinion to reach for early, so we would recommend waiting on that position to grab one or two of the lesser known guys like Travis Kelce or Jordan Cameron instead. Quarterbacks are a crap-shoot after Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, but if one of them falls to you early it's going to be hard not to pull the trigger!

Best of luck drafting in 2015, check back here often to see our updated preseason rankings for the 2015 season or catch up with us and other fantasy football experts at FantasyPros. To the 'ship!