Time for a little mini-rant!
The Cowboys are playing the Cardinals this week in a battle of two of the NFC’s best teams. After taking a shot in the back last week, Tony Romo’s status for the game is up in the air and will more likely be a game-time decision. Obviously this will play into our decision on what line to put either team. BUT, because we have a game every Thursday, the pools are locked at kickoff.
I don’t get it! Why can’t the one line you use on the Thursday game be locked leaving the other lines available for editing up until their kickoff? Makes sense to me! So to those that run the Fantasy Football sites on Yahoo and CBS, since, you know, they are avid readers of mine, it’s time to change your system!
OK, I’m off my soapbox and ready for a new week of football!
WEEK 9! HERE WE GO!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
13 – SEATTLE over Oakland – Do…do you need an explanation?
12 – SAN FRANCISCO over St. Louis – The Rams defensive line is starting to live up to their pre-season expectations. Unfortunately the Rams offense has been hit by the injury bug and will have no chance of putting up enough points against a fresh San Francisco team.
11 – CINCINNATI over Jacksonville – The Bengals have been struggling a bit, but the Jags are still the Jags. AJ Green could be making his return this week. Even if he doesn’t, you shouldn’t have any worries over putting Cincy this high.
10 – KANSAS CITY over New York Jets –Alex Smith is hurting a bit, but the Chiefs offense doesn’t really need a quarterback anyway. The Jets won’t be able to stop Jamaal Charles, which means they won’t be able to stop the Chiefs.
9 – CLEVELAND over Tampa Bay – I know that I have been talking about the Browns a bit the last few weeks, but it does still feel a little odd to put them this high. The fact that it’s a home game against Tampa makes it a lot easier.
8 – PITTSBURGH over Baltimore – Welcome back to relevance Big Ben! I’ll go out on a limb and say that Roethlisberger won’t put up another 500 yards/6 touchdown game, but he will be able to do enough to get a huge divisional win.
7 – Indianapolis over NEW YORK GIANTS – The week ends in Jersey with a Colts team coming to town that has something to prove after giving up the previously mentioned 500 yards/6 touchdown game.
6 – San Diego over MIAMI – The Chargers have looked good despite losing two big division games recently. The second half of the season has traditionally been San Diego’s time to shine. The Dolphins should be able to put up a good fight but the Chargers should be able to hold on and win a close game.
5 – DALLAS over Arizona – We already talked about this one before. Dallas at 5 is based on Tony Romo playing. I think he will and the Cowboys should fight behind him.
4 – CAROLINA over New Orleans – The week starts off in Charlotte with two teams who have three wins…and are playing for first place? The NFC South has seen better days. We’ll make this week’s BOLD PREDICTION that the winner of the NFC South will NOT have a record above .500. Cam needs a bounce back game and he gets it against the Saints defense.
3 – HOUSTON over Philadelphia – This could be the sleeper Game of the Week. The Eagles have looked solid all year but Arian Foster may just be too much for them to handle this week.
2 – NEW ENGLAND over Denver – Brady vs Manning in a rematch of last year’s AFC title game. The change in venue will be enough for the surging Patriots to get a bit of retribution.
1 – Washington over MINNESOTA – It was announced today that RGIII will be back and start. I didn’t have too much faith in him when he was healthy let alone coming back from (another ) injury.
Week 9 featured plenty of winners and losers (an equal amount of each, as it turns out), but who wants to hear about losers anyway? Here's a breakdown of 10 real winners in week 9.
- Ben Roethlisberger, step right up into the history books. Ben is the only QB in NFL history to have thrown for 12 TD's total over two consecutive games. He has 862 passing yards in those two games, and a glorious zero interceptions. The Steelers seem unstoppable right now, manhandling the likes of the Colts and Ravens, both good teams. All of Ben's offensive weapons seem to be playing well during this stretch, and rookie Martavis Bryant is a sensation, scoring 5 TD's in his first 3 games. The Steelers have two more juicy matchups against the Jets and Titans before they go on bye for Week 12.
- Jeremy Hill lead all RB's with 28.3 pts in standard scoring leagues in Week 9. Hill was called upon with Giovani Bernard out with multiple ailments, and delivered in a big way. Hill put up 154 yards with 2 TD's and added 1 catch for 9 yards. Hill showed great versatility, scoring on a 1-yard run, doing short yardage work, and torching the Jags in the fourth quarter with a 60-yard touchdown run that sealed the game for the Bengals. Hill should get the start at least one more time as the Bengals play on Thursday night next and will likely sit Bernard one more week. Don't expect 20+ carries to continue for Hill once Gio is back.
- Mark Sanchez played three quarters in relief on Sunday, leading the Eagles to victory in Houston. Impressive is the best word to describe Sanchez's play in this game, but is it really a surprise? This is a guy, after all, who played in two straight AFC championship games while being a wild card team each year. Enough about the past though, how well did he really do Sunday? Pretty damn well, from the coach's perspective. Sanchez had 202 yards passing on 22 attempts, so very efficient. He also found the Eagles best target Jeremy Maclin early and often. Finishing the game with 2 TD's and 2 INT's shows there's still room for improvement, but the early indications are the Sanchez could finish the season as the Eagles' starting QB.
- Brady vs Manning #87 (or whatever) wasn't that different than most of the previous matchups. Peyton "Crybaby" Manning (This is about as tongue-in-cheek as it gets. We used to poke fun at him, but he's seriously a QB god at this point...anyways) struggled in bad weather in Foxboro and the Patriots smashed his team. Manning is now 5-11 against Brady, and while his stats weren't bad for fantasy, his 57 pass attempts show that they were not balanced on offense at all, mostly due to being down for the whole game. Make any team one-dimensional, and Bill Belichick will own them every time. So who is the winner here? Clearly it's Tom Brady owners, who after sticking out a really bad start, have been rewarded with 27.4 points per game over the last 5 games.
- Terrance West continues his march up the Browns depth chart. He's already passed Isaiah Crowell, but on Sunday he also out-touched Ben Tate 16 to 14. West is a rookie still, but has run the ball OK on an offense that isn't that great. His biggest splash on Sunday was his pass blocking. He picked up a huge block in the 4th quarter which gave Brian Hoyer time to find Taylor Gabriel for a 34 yard TD in the 4th quarter, sealing the win for the Browns. The Browns are now a comfortable 5-3 and don't have a particularly tough schedule going forward. As for West, he will settle into the main role for the remainder of the season, but look for more of a committee approach on Thursday night with the short rest. Bonus: Check out Terrance West's awesome block.
- No team was as impressive on Sunday as the Miami Dolphins. They thoroughly whooped the Chargers, who yes, had to play at 1pm on the east coast. But seriously, is it that hard on a professional athlete going from San Diego to Miami. Life's tough, I know. Back to the Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill, who would likely be discussed as one of the better young QB's if it wasn't for Ben Roethlisberger throwing a TD every few minutes. Tannehill is now a must-start in 2 QB formats and is a great streaming option with lots of bye weeks coming up. One more note about the Chargers - I have never seen a team do something like win 31-0 and lose 37-0 in the same season...only 5 weeks apart too! It takes a special kind of...well special to accomplish that.
- The Cardinals have established themselves as the best team in the NFC thus far. They have lots of things to hang their hat on so far - they are the the last team in the league with only 1 loss and they are the first team to hold Demarco Murray to under 100 yards rushing. On a side note - congrats to Demarco for beating the great Jim Brown's record by two games! The Cardinals are getting contributions from everyone on their team on offense, including a bunch of people that were anonymous in the fantasy world at the start of the season, like John Carlson, Jaron Brown and Marion Grice. The Cardinals have the offense and defense to keep winning games, and if they secure the #1 seed in the playoffs, they will be a tough team to beat since they seem to have an answer for everyone they play in the NFC.
- The Rams defense was quiet stat-wise to start the season, but they have really turned it up lately. Sacking Colin Kaepernick 7 times is a great way to get a win on the road, it turns out. The defense nearly lost the game too, but had perhaps the play of their season when they recovered a Kaepernick fumble with just seconds left in the game. The Niners had just drove all the way down to the Rams 1 yard-line and were positioned for a winning score or at least a tying FG. Kaepernick fumbled away the game and James Laurinaitis was there to scoop it up and secure the Rams victory. The Rams DST should be a good start later on in the season, but they do need to play Denver before you want to try and grab them.
- On a day when everything went right for the Chiefs, they were not going to be denied victory. After a first quarter crazy tipped pass touchdown to Anthony Fasano, you knew it was the Chiefs' day. Jamaal Charles continued his excellent production, gaining 88 yards from scrimmage and scoring a TD and Alex Smith was very serviceable with 199 yards and 2TD's and no picks to go with that. In all, a pretty ho-hum afternoon for the efficient but not flash Kansas City offense. The Jets were a little more interesting, if only because of their drama. While giving Geno Smith a timeout and having Michael Vick start, there is talk that Vick might not be available in Week 10. Vick wasn't great, but he wasn't bad either, not turning the ball over, but only scoring 1 TD.
- The Seahawks are just not the same team they were 11 months ago. With a record of only 5-3, you would have still expected them to handle the 0-8 Raiders better than they did, letting it come down to an onside kick at the end of the game. Russell Wilson may be the biggest up and down QB in fantasy football, scoring in the 20's just once, but in the 30's twice. He tends to have huge games, or games where he's just managing things and handing the ball the Marshawn Lynch all day. Don't expect this pattern to change much as the Seahawks will want to milk every last carry out of Lynch before they (likely) part ways with him at the end of the season.
- Carson Palmer has gotten over the shoulder issue now and is putting up very consistent points, while limiting turnovers. While it may be hard to tell which receiver on the Cardinals will have a great game between Fitzgerald, Floyd and Brown, the one thing they have in common is the guy under center. A consistent option as an every week starter or an incredible bye week replacement, if he's available.
(249yds, 3TD, 1int, week 9 @DAL) - 61% owned
- Ryan Tannehill was rumored to be close to losing his job in Miami earlier in the year. Of course that was just nonsense, and he's been proving his worth in spades over the past few games. He's not putting up gaudy numbers but he's improved on his turnovers and continues to work on chemistry with his receivers. What's really put him on the radar this year though (he's the #11 QB overall right now in standard scoring leagues), are the rushing yards that he's putting in. Over the past 5 games he's averaged 40+ yards on the ground.. bonus!
(288yds, 3TD, 4car for 47yds) - 57% owned
Palmer and Tannehill both already owned in your league? Kyle Orton (10% owned) is a great pickup that has been consistently good over the past few weeks, throwing over 230 yards and scoring at least 2 TD's per game in weeks 6-8. I hesitate to pick him up and play him over the next two weeks since he goes up against the Chiefs and Dolphins, both teams that don't allow a lot of fantasy points to opposing QB's but his match-up in week against the Jets' poor passing defense is a tasty one.
Deeper Leagues:
- Mark Sanchez was blamed for a lot of things in New York during his time with the Jets, but he is still a young quarterback that has a lot of upside. It's just as easy to blame the lack of receiving talent, coaching and playcalling during his time as a Jet. Anyway, now Sanchez is taking over the reins of a potent Philadelphia Eagles offense and he showed quite a spark coming off the bench to take over for Foles on Sunday. Since Foles will be out almost indefinitely with a broken collarbone, Sanchez is a legitimate weekly starting option with QB1 upside.
(202yds, 2TD, week 9 @HOU) - 4% owned
- Zach Mettenberger was on bye in week 9 but really impressed in his debut in week 8 against the Texans. There are a few good weapons on the Titans (Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Delanie Walker) for Mett to throw to and we should only see him get more comfortable as the year progresses. He does have a bad match-up in week 10 against a surely angry Ravens team though, so Mettenberger remains a wait-and-see in most leagues, only holding value in 2QB leagues as an upside bye replacement or lower-end QB2.
(299yds, 2TD, 1int, week 8 vs. HOU) - 2% owned
- Martavis Bryant will score a TD in almost every game from here on out. Roethlisberger is absolutely on fire, the Steelers' passing offense is clicking and Bryant is the big redzone receiving target that Big Ben hasn't had since Plaxico Burress. Still playing less than half of the game's snaps on average, Bryant is a little dependent on the success of the offense but regardless he should get at least a few good-lucking targets in each game going forward.
(3rec for 44yds, 2TD, week 9 vs. BAL) - 42% owned
- Mike Evans has appeared to struggle from afar, but a lot of that is just the usual rookie jitters paired with poor play in general from Tampa Bay QB's and being thrust into an important role right out of college. Talk about trending up, over the last 4 games that he has played he is averaging about 5 receptions for 80 yards and a TD. Evans is a guy that you must own for the rest of the season and 39% of leagues still haven't figured that out.
(7rec for 124yds, 2TD week 9 @CLE) - 61% owned
- Kenny Britt has shown flashes throughout his career, but never seems to be able to put it all together for a long stretch of time. Who cares though, right? Fantasy Football is all about match-up play, especially going into these tough bye weeks, and the season-ending injury to Brian Quick has propelled Britt to an immediate increase in relevance. In week 10, Britt goes up against a Cardinals team that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs this season. If stars actually aligned for specific events, they may be moving around up there right now.
(2rec for 32yds, 1TD week 9 @SF) - 9% owned
- Josh Gordon's story is very familiar to everyone by now, but consider this to be just one more reminder to pick him up in your league if he is available. Gordon comes off of suspension in week 12 against the Falcons and it's almost likely that playing Gordon in your playoff run could be the difference that your team needs down the stretch. Let's not worry about his stats.. the guy is an idiot - but he's an all-pro idiot.
65% owned
Flip a coin:
Allen Robinson (41% owned) and Allen Hurns (15% owned) are toss-ups every week for the touchdown dance.. but Robinson is actually a decent PPR start on the regular. Davante Adams (13% owned) has secured the WR3 job in Green Bay and therefore is deserving of a FLEX spot each week in most leagues. Jarvis Landry (8% owned) is a secret Dolphin pick that may pay off, as he's been getting 4 or 5 receptions per game and has scored 2 TDs in the last 4.
- Terrance West started the year off strong, rushing for 100 yards against PIT in week 1. His decline after that was a result of being outplayed by fellow rookie Isaiah Crowell. The problem here isn't whether Crowell or West can be productive, but rather that the RBs in Cleveland are one of these 3-headed committees that we've been seeing lately in the NFL. The Browns take on the Bengals in Week 10, who have given up the 6th most fantasy points to RBs so far this season.
(15car for 48yds, 1rec for 2yds, 1TD week 9 vs. TB) - 24% owned
- Alfred Blue has played snaps in every game so far this season, and the Texans have no problem going to him as their lead back when Foster goes down or needs to be spelled. Some beat reporters in Houston believe that Grimes may be a better talent, but the Texans have already demonstrated who will take the role over. Since Foster may be out for a week or two following the Texans' bye week, Blue is a speculative add that could provide FLEX quality fantasy production but the latest news is that Foster may be okay to jump back into the #1 role come week 11.
(13car for 78yds week 3 @NYG when Foster was injured) - 12% owned
- Ryan Mathews looks to resume his lead back role when he comes back after the Chargers' bye this week (latest news, speculative information) even though Branden Oliver has flashed with some brilliant plays over the past several weeks. It's much more likely for Oliver that he will take the Danny Woodhead / Darren Sproles type role for the rest of the year which bodes well for Mathews as the Chargers get back on their feet against Oakland's porous rushing defense in week 11.
67% owned
- Bobby Rainey should now be considered the lead back on Tampa Bay. Take this with a grain of salt, however, since Rainey has had some ball control issues this year and was not given a heavy workload toward the end of the game in week 9 even though it was winable. Still, although Charles Sims has upside, he's an untested asset and could easily falter whch would leave Rainey with the uncontested job for the rest of the season.. unless they sign Ray Rice. :P
(19car for 87yds, 1rec for 34yds week 9 @CLE) - 46% owned
- Charles Sims was picked up by hosts of fantasy team managers hoping for a miracle to solve their bye week and injury woes. Unfortunately Sims - who was just coming off of IR last week - was inactive for the game, but it looks like he'll be 100% for week 10's match-up against the Falcons. Yes, that's the Falcons - the team currently giving up the most fantasy points to RBs each week. My thoughts are that Sims will impress and eventually get the #1 job in Tampa Bay this season, but that is still quite a gamble.
26% owned
- Jeremy Hill was one heck of a play last week and now that it looks like Giovani Bernard might be sidelined for a few games, he is an every week starter on your team. He is owned in 75% of leagues though, so this is a sidenote for those of you that may still see him as available.
- Denard Robinson used to be on this list, but he is now over 70% owned and therefore past the threshold of a possible pickup in leagues populated with mildly intelligent people. Now, if you're not in one of those leagues.. best of luck with life, and go grab him up ASAP!
- Adrian Peterson is a must add this week if you have the space, because he was able to plead the child abuse charges against him down to a misdemeanor. Since he has already been out for 8 games, the NFL may allow him back to play as early as next week. We'll see how the Vikings will use him now that they have been going to the tandem of Asiata and McKinnon each week, but one would think that AP's talent would make them switch back to him immediately as the lead back.
Deeper Leagues:
Tre Mason (38% owned) could be great but I don't see him breaking free of the committee approach in St. Loiuis, Anthony Dixon (18% owned) and Bryce Brown (22% owned) are just not good enough to be owned in 10-12 team leagues, Chris Polk (1% owned) has some value as LeSean McCoy's backup, but not enough to be rostered in 10-12 team leagues.
- Owen Daniels has been a consistent TE most weeks, but in the last two has averaged 6 receptions and 50 yards or more in each game. He's not going to be amazing, and only has 3 TDs so far this season, but TEs are few and far between so far once you get past the top several and the Ravens play the Titans in week 10, giving up about 9.5 fantasy points per match-up.
(5rec for 46yds, 1TD week 9 vs. SD) - 31% owned
- Mychal Rivera served as a capable TE last year and is doing the same this year for the Raiders. On track for the same kind of season (500 yards, 4 or 5 TDs), he seems like someone to avoid but his targets and redzone looks have been picking up in the past two games and Derek Carr loves him as a dumpoff target. Rivera is immediately a playable PPR TE with upside.
(8rec for 38yds, 2TD week 9 @SEA) - 3% owned
Ravens (vs. TEN), Cowboys (@JAX), Steelers (@NYJ), Bills (vs. KC), Dolphins (@DET), Packers (vs. CHI)
We almost lost our top line game last week when the Raiders nearly pulled off the comeback to beat the Seahawks in Seattle. This brings up an interesting point though. As most of you who read this know, I am a HUGE Raiders fan (pause for sympathy). Watching Oakland pulling closer and closer to the defending champs last week, I wasn’t thinking about losing my top line game. The only thing that was on my mind was the potential of my team pulling off one of the biggest upsets in recent memory.
Whether it is with your confidence pool or your fantasy team, I think that your actual team should come first. It just makes both the fantasy game and the real game a lot more fun to watch. Use it as justification if you want, but don’t openly cheer for your fantasy quarterback to throw a touchdown against your favorite team. It only sets yourself up for a lose-lose situation.
Alright – Week 10 – HERE WE GO!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
13 – Denver over OAKLAND – Once again my Raiders are on the wrong side of the top line. Hard to argue that when they play last year’s two Super Bowl teams in back to back weeks.
12 – SEATTLE over New York Giants – Seattle just squeaked by the Raiders last week. They may just squeak by again, but it is hard to think of a scenario where the Giants come out on top.
11 – ARIZONA over St. Louis – Both teams are coming off of big road wins last week. The luck will run out for the Rams though. The Cardinals are a much tougher home team to play.
10 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – One team spent the bye week giving their coach an extension and one team spent the bye week explaining reports that their coach doesn’t have control of the locker room. Green Bay will be ready for this game, the Bears won’t.
9 – BALTIMORE over Tennessee – The Ravens are sitting in last place in a division without a team under .500. Every win is crucial. Lucky for them they get a home game against the Titans.
8 – Dallas over JACKSONVILLE – The Jags make their yearly trip to London and take the Cowboys with them. Just like last week, this game depends on Tony Romo’s availability. They’ll still win, but if Romo doesn’t play they should be dropped down a few lines.
7 – Pittsburgh over NEW YORK JETS – Logic would tell you that there is no way that Ben Roethlisberger will have a THIRD consecutive six touchdown game…although I don’t think logic realizes that Big Ben is playing the Jets this week.
6 – NEW ORLEANS over San Francisco – A pre-season possible NFC Championship preview turns into just another week 10 game. Not only will the 49ers not make it to a fourth straight title game, but my BOLD PREDICTION is that the 49ers will not make the playoffs this season.
5 – DETROIT over Miami – Calvin is expected to make his long awaited return after the bye week. The Dolphins have been hot as of late but they won’t be able to stop a Lions offense that includes Megatron.
4 – PHILADELPHIA over Carolina – Well, the potential for a butt-fumble sequel has returned with Mark Sanchez filling in for the injured Nick Foles. This bumps the Eagles down a few lines but they should still be able to beat the struggling Panthers.
3 – BUFFALO over Kansas City – The Bills are still fighting for a playoff spot. This will be a close one, but game-manager sensation Kyle Orton should be able to find a way to get a win against a hungry Chiefs team.
2 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – Yes, I do realize that the Falcons treated Tampa like a high school JV team in their first meeting. Even with that, there really is just no reason to have faith in Atlanta – especially on the road.
1 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – The week starts off with a strong AFC North game that both teams need to win. A full healthy offense would give me more confidence in the Bengals, but they should still be able to pull this one out.