Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

After this weekend's group of games, we will already be a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season. It's definitely the fastest and most exciting four months of the year, so make sure you're ready every week to play your winning picks. And remember, if you wait until the end of the week to make your picks(as I do), the lines may change out of your favor in a certain game(s). If that happens, feel free to move those lines up to a point and a half in either direction depending on your battle plans. I wouldn't wager anywhere that wouldn't let me adjust the numbers to at least a minimal degree. Most places taking action would rather not have you move the lines and risk taking what is offered. You'd be surprised at how little, shaving or adding a point and a half reduces your potential earnings. Definitely an option to think about when it comes to winning those parlays.

NICK'S PICKS:

NEP -7.5  The Pats will be taking on the Bills in this intriguing AFC East matchup. And even though I thought Buffalo had somewhat of a shot at the division title before the regular season started, New England's defense has been telling me otherwise. I don't think this spread is too high, even with this being a division rivalry with the Patriots playing on the road. Once they do lose, and/ or come back down to Earth, is when I'll scrutinize the data a little bit closer on future lines, and start hating Tom Brady again at my high level.

KC -6.5  Detroit's defense may be better than KC's, but we know this game is coming down to the offense and how many TDs Patrick Mahomes will throw. I mean, at the way the Chiefs score, they just have to pull off a ten point victory you would think. And I would think that's at the bottom of the spectrum. KC has the hottest offense, so go ahead... play with fire.

BAL -7  Okay, this is a game that I'm taking down half a point to -6.5. The only thing I'm really liking about the Brown's offense is Nick Chubb. They are on the road against a Raven's team that has one of the strongest running games in the league, as well as an emerging star in Lamar Jackson, a known 'run first' QB who is starting to develop quite an arm in his second year in the league. Baltimore's defense is pretty solid and the only tangible I can see making this one close, is because it's a division game.

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your $$$):

(PHI +4 / GB -4)  Aaron Rodgers needs to live up to the hype of his mustache.

(WAS +2.5 / NYG -2.5)  Daniel Jones will need to live up to the rookie hype for the second straight week.

(MIN +2.5 / CHI -2.5)  A battle between good defenses and below average QBs.

(DAL -2.5 / NOS +2.5)  Another great defensive battle. Who is the game's leading rusher... Alvin Kamara or Ezekiel Elliot?

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

(LAC -990 / NEP -327 / KC -293)

(BAL -300 / LAR -431 / SEA -239)

CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):

* = Winner

LAC* - 16 - MIA

KCC* - 15 - DET

CLE - 14 - BAL*

SEA* - 13 - ARI

TBB - 12 - LAR*

OAK -11 - IND*

NEP* - 10 - BUF

CAR - 09 - HOU*

WAS - 08 - NYG*

CIN - 07 - PIT*

TEN - 06 - ATL*

PHI - 05 - GBP*

DAL* - 04 - NOS

JAX - 03 - DEN*

MIN* - 02 - CHI

We are going into week 3, and most teams are going to start and find their rhythms, grooves or what have you. The coming weeks will definitely get easier for picking the right games to put safe action on. You still want to be conservative in the first quarter of the season with your picks, but it's definitely a great time to see how and where teams are trending. As far as shaking off early season rust, I apologize for my misleading information last week, stating that Minnesota was at home instead of Green Bay and giving out wrong moneylines. So much for the new phone app. Hey, I'll admit it if I state something wrong, but you'll just have to live with my advice... no apologies there. 

NICK'S PICKS:

BUF -6  The Bills will be at home against a very bad Bengals defense. Buffalo's ground game may not be as explosive without injured rookie RB Devin Singletary, but Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon should be solid enough against Cincinnati's 25th ranked defense. Besides, I heard the Bills have this guy named Josh Allen that's pretty good. This game might not be a massacre like some are predicting, but I do think a victory by 7 points is definitely within reason.

DAL -22.5  Dallas has Ezekiel Elliot, Dak Prescott, a good defense and home field advantage. Miami has, well... nothing. The Cowboys have scored the second most amount of points in the league so far, at an average of 33.0 per game. It would be very safe to say the Dolphins defense won't be bringing anything but a physical comedy routine. I'm usually not a fan of very high spreads, however, this is the year that anti-Miami = money.

ARI -2.5  Cam Newton is banged up for the Panthers and may not play this Sunday against Arizona. I feel it doesn't matter if backup Kyle Allen gets the start over Cam, as the Cardinals and Kyler Murray get their first win of the season. The Cardinals are at home and Carolina has to play across the country(in the desert) which gives Arizona some edge points for their half of my game algorithm(the one that operates inside my head anyway). A field goal win isn't a lot to ask for in this one. BTW, someone has to tell Larry Fitzgerald that "I want in!", on that fountain of youth discovery.

TB -6  Benching QB Eli Manning for backup Daniel Jones won't help the Giants in any game category, other than rushing attempts/ yards by a quarterback. As far as I could tell, New York's O-line has had pass protection issues and the receiving core collectively greases their gloves before game-time. Tampa Bay isn't a team I would fear but their main receivers(Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) are the real deal. QB Jameis Winston will also click for gainful production this game with TE O.J. Howard. The Giants have the 28th ranked defense, which is another factor forcing me to pry open my wallet. Damn you G-Men... or not.

Season Record: 1-2  33.3%

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your $$$):

(BAL +5.5 / KC -5.5), (HOU +3 / LAC -3), (LAR -3 / CLE +3), (CHI -4 / WAS +4)

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

(BUF -254 / GB -356 / MIN -424), (TB -261 / SEA -224 / SF -278)

CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):

 W              L 

DAL - 16 - MIA

NEP - 15 - NYJ

BUF - 14 - CIN

MIN - 13 - OAK

TBB - 12 - NYG

SEA - 11 - NOS

ARI - 10 - CAR

GB - 9 - DEN

ATL - 8 - IND

TEN - 7(lost on TNF) - JAX

SF - 6 - PIT

LAR - 5 - CLE

HOU - 4 - LAC

PHI - 3 - DET

CHI - 2 - WAS

KC - 1 - BAL

Week one has passed, and hopefully those of you that felt compelled to seek early, yet riskier action, were able to make the right moves. Actually, this first week, other than a few upsets, played out as the forseen wagering results the experts would of expected.

NICK'S PICKS:

MN +3 - The Vikings are at home and their Defense might be too much for Rodgers and his brood of young receivers. I know Adams is no pup, but if Minnesota's corners shut him down, I think Green Bay's day is over before it begins, as they'll quickly run out of options to move the ball against a top five D. The Vikings are going to pound the ball on the ground and have great play makers on the receiving end from Diggs, Thielen and Rudolph. Take Minnesota and the points all day.

DAL -5.5 - The Cowboys are on the road against a division rival, but they will still have too much firepower for the Redskins to handle. Michael Gallup is emerging as a receiver playing opposite side of Amari Cooper, and I think Josh Norman is going to have a coverage breakdown trying to keep tabs on these guys. Randall Cobb and Jason Witten will also be creeping around, and oh yeah, Zeke with the ground attack. Dallas should definitely win by 2 field goals... take advantage of that extra half point.

PIT -4 - The Steelers are at home in their safe place after being routed by New England on the opener, which just happened to be a prime-time game on Sunday Night Football, for all to see. Now, I don't expect a complete dismantling of Seattle by Pittsburgh, but I'm thinking them pulling out a win by a touchdown or couple field goals is totally within the Steelers' ability.

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your $$$):

CHI -2.5/DEN +2.5, KC -7/OAK +7, CLE -2.5/NYJ +2.5, NE -19/MIA +19

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

NE -109/KC -110/HOU -110, BAL -110/PIT -110/DAL -110

Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck! 

Did you have another solid week? I sure did. That’s why you HAVE TO keep it here for solid wagering advice. I’m not the one who will you steer you down that dark alley of football futility… I’m the cop in the squad car with his ‘alley light’ shining bright on your perplexed face, telling you to, “Get in, I can provide a ‘safe place’ for your gambling dollars”. The only entities that will screw you out of your money are outdated, wagering advice books that were published before today’s NFL and the teams themselves who get upset by a weaker rival. Sure, I might suggest the occasional ‘bad pick’, but those usually are not my fault; “It’s a witch hunt”, as some politicians might say. So, keep hanging in there as teams are finding their identities and games should be easier to call. Also, as temperatures drop across the nation, defenses will pick up their game due to not, ‘over-heating’ in the cooler temps and them ‘gelling’ as defense units as a whole. So, with week 6 upon us, you can start to increase your confidence and amount of action as well as ticket amounts… if you feel comfortable. Again, it’s up to you, don’t spend all your weekly ‘vice’ money just on this vice. Something has to take the blues away when a kicker loses cash for the masses.

CHI(-195) -4 @ MIA(+174) +4 (U/O 41.5) – The Dolphins have a decent pass defense but have much to improve on against the run. Obviously, we know the Bears’ D is one of the best and their offense is a work in progress with a very positive showing before their bye last week. I’m still going to take the Bears definitely with the moneyline but am being a little more cautious with the spread. Not a fan of the O/U when a team is coming off a bye.

SEA(-147) -2.5 @ OAK(+132) +2.5 (O/U 48.5) – The Seahawks’ D has declined a bit, however I still believe they can beat the Raiders by at least a FG. Grab the moneyline and spread with confidence. I’d lean towards the Over.

CAR(-118) -1 @ WAS(+106) +1 (U/O 44) – The Panthers seemed a little flat after their bye, almost losing to the G-Men last week. However, I think they can easily slip past the Redskins with this favorable spread and moneyline, so definitely be keen on them both. Washington was able to put up some points against the Saints last Monday night, but that defense is kinda weak and the Redskins are on a short week, so I’m hesitant with the U/O. If I were to pick, I’d lean towards the Under.

LAC(-104) +1 @ CLE(-108) -1 (U/O 48.5) – I’m taking the Chargers all the way on this one. Browns have a ways yet to go before I bet in their favor. I like the Over.

PIT(+108) +1.5 @ CIN(-121) -1.5 (U/O 51) – The Steelers will pull this out by at least a field goal. The Bengals had issues with a bad Falcons’ defense. I’m comfy with the spread and moneyline as well the Over.

IND(+123) +2 @ NYJ(-137) -2 (U/O 46.5) – STAY AWAY! STAY AWAY! STAY AWAY! Nothing about this game I like. Too hard to predict. Indy is slowly on the rise and the Jets are too streaky.

TBB(+140) +3 @ ATL(-157) -3 (U/O 57.5) – I’m throwing down the duckets on Atlanta with both the spread and moneyline. I’m also taking the Over, in which I believe will be the highest scoring game of the week.

BUF(+347) +10 @ HOU(-408) -10 (U/O 40) – I’m not a fan of the spread and think the moneyline is also a bit high, unless you want to include it in a mid-to-large parlay. I am a fan of the Over in this contest.

ARI(+396) +10.5 @ MIN(-469) -10.5 (U/O 44) – Again, I’m fine with the moneyline here, when included in a parlay, but definitely don’t like the high spread until the Vikings can get Dalvin Cook and the running game going. Also stay away from the U/O.

LAR(-299) -7 @ DEN(+260) +7 (U/O 51.5) – Another one that you can add the Rams on a parlay, and if dropping the spread a half-point to -6.5, you can safely take ‘em both. I like the Over as I feel the Rams will put up at least 40.

JAX(-169) -3 @ DAL(+151) +3 (U/O 40) – I definitely dig the Jaguars with the spread and moneyline. If taking on a big parlay, maybe knock the spread down half a point. The U/O is UGLY! Don’t kiss her… I don’t care how beautiful she is on the inside.

BAL(-137) -2.5 @ TEN(+123) +2.5 (U/O 42) – I’d stay away from everything but the Over. This game already has left a bad taste in my mouth.

KCC(+170) +3.5 @ NEP(-191) -3.5 (O/U 60) – A game that should just be viewed and enjoyed. Too many variables and outcomes for these high octane offenses/ sub-par defenses. It’s going to come down to big plays, not one team dominating the other. The only option that makes sense is the Over… but 60 is when the old man starts turning bitter.

SF(+343) +10 @ GBP(-403) -10 (O/U 46.5) – I love the moneyline mixed in with a dominant parlay. I’m willing to grab the spread if lowered a half point to 9.5. The U/O is not a looker but I’d lean towards the Over.

NICK’S PICKS to CLICK for WEEK 6:

3 TEAM PARLAY (MIN ml) – (LAR -6.5) – (JAX -2.5)

3 TEAM PARLAY (BAL -2.5) – (GB -9.5) – (HOU ml)

2 TEAM PARLAY (ATL -3) – (CAR -1)