Die Hard Steelers fan and long time fantasy football player. Other hobbies include golf, drinking tasty craft brews, and getting dubs in Fortnite.
Week 1 is upon us and like many of you, my work week is going to suffer, and I have no plans on coming into the office on Friday. After doing player profiles and random articles for drinkfive over the last few years I wanted to change things up a bit and do a weekly post on key situations each week. We will look at three different matchups and their fantasy implications. I will also make a prediction. Hopefully we can find a dark horse or two to ride into the championship.
Alfred Morris/Matt Breida vs Vikings Defense
With Jerick McKinnon going down with a torn ACL, the door is open for a potential RB2 in a revamped San Francisco offense. Since news broke, owners quickly moved to claim either Morris or Breida. Neither is going to produce the way McKinnon was expected to, but there is some value to be found.
Last year in 16 games, Breida caught 21 passes. In his 3 years at Georgia Southern, he caught 22 passes. As the smaller back, I have seen a few experts say he is the PPR running back to own. I'm not saying Morris is going to get the passing down work (just 57 receptions in 90 career games), but temper expectations. I expect Garcon and Kittle to see an uptick in receiving targets.
Morris WILL get the goal line work and should get the early down work as well. At 5’ 10” and 224 pounds, Morris is better built to handle running between the tackles. Not to mention Morris’ history with Kyle Shanahan. One more fun tidbit…..Morris averaged 4.8 YPC on 115 carries last year.
If either are available in your league, I would recommend a stash. Tough matchup, but game script will be the thing to watch.
Prediction: Both backs look good against a tough defense. Morris capitalizes and gets in the end-zone and is named starter week 2.
Indianapolis Running Backs
The dreaded hamstring injury has Marlon Mack questionable for the opener. This leaves the door potentially open for rookie Jordan Wilkins and Christine Michael. This is not Christine Michael's first chance - I was drinking the Kool-Aid in Seattle. Looking strictly at upside, I am taking a stab at Jordan Wilkins. If he looks good week 1, he could end up keeping the job even when Mack returns. Michael is expected to split carries week 1 if Mack misses time, but we have been down that road before.
Do not forget about Nyheim Hines (4.38 forty at the combine). He fumbled 4 times in 2 preseason games, but the Colts drafted him as their ‘Alvin Kamara’ back. I expect to see him on the field in passing situations but will be on a short leash.
Whoever emerges as the RB1 on the Colts could be a steal. Highest chance is Marion Mack, but I would take a stab at rookie Jordan Wilkins since he is most likely available. If you are in a deep PPR league, keep an eye on how they use Hines and IF he can hold onto the football.
Prediction: Wilkins is the most impressive runner after Mack is ruled out. Does not do enough to keep the job from Mack who returns week 2, but does eat into his carries and this turns into a timeshare.
Packers Wide Receivers
The number 1 on Green Bay’s offense is Davante Adams. His ADP has him pegged as a mid-first round pick which is great value! But what about the other guys? Green Bay brought in Jimmy Graham in the offseason and some would argue he is going to be the number 2 target in the passing attack. I am buying Jimmy Graham as the top red zone target for Aaron Rodgers, but do not think he will be the number 2 option between the 20’s.
Randall Cobb. Dreamy eyed Randall Cobb is listed as the WR2 on the Packers depth chart. In recent news, the Packers have been shopping him for a trade. He is owed a little over 8 million and has had a nagging ankle injury so I do not expect him to depart Green Bay. Watching him last year, it looks like he has been running in quick sand. He does have a history with Aaron Rodgers, but Cobb’s best days are behind him. I am avoiding Cobb this year and looking to see who Aaron builds a connection with that has two good ankles.
Next up on the depth chart is Geronimo Allison. With an ADP in the 13th round, there is a chance that Geronimo is a free agent in your league. Since Cobb is primarily playing in the slot, Allison could be the WR2 opposite Adams, who will draw the most attention. Allison is also entering his 3rd year in the league, historically a break out year for wide receivers. I am willing to take a chance on anyone in the Green Bay offense that could potentially be 2nd in targets (Maybe even first IF Adams were to go down. He did have 2 concussions last year.)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown. Yes, those are the next two rookies in line behind Allison. I also just wanted to type those fabulous names out. MVS showed flashes in the preseason and is listed at 6’ 4” with a 4.37 40 time. Out of the remaining packer WRs he will be the one to keep an eye on. He could see some playing time week 1, but historically Aaron relies on his vets.
Prediction: Allison is the 2nd most targeted WR on the Packers week 1 and is one of the hottest waiver wire adds going into week 2.
Another week in the books and more injuries to many promising fantasy players. Although I do not have Dalvin Cook in any leagues, it is tough to see an exciting young rookie hit the deck. It was a rough week but hang on tight and be sure to check Jim Hutchins' suggested pickups for this week to keep the dream alive.
Derek Carr (Back) – Derek Carr has a transverse process fracture in his back and is out 2-6 weeks according to Rotoworld. This is a tough blow to the Raiders and all of those around Carr will suffer from his absence. Keep monitoring the injury reports and his activity. Amari Pooper and Crabtree owners will have to temper expectations until Carr is healthy. To read more about what the hell a transverse process fracture is, check out this article: http://www.sportsinjuryclinic.net/sport-injuries/low-back-pain/transverse-process-fracture
Marcus Mariota (Hamstring) Déjà vu with two young QB’s going down in the same week again. Last year both Carr and Mariota went down to season-ending injuries and it is not as severe this time around. Mariota is considered Day to Day and the Titans are prepping both Matt Cassel and Mariota to start. Same as Carr, temper your Titans in case Mariota is out this week.
Dalvin Cook (ACL) – And just like that one of the most promising rookie backs this year is out for the season. Rough night for a Vikings team that has already been playing without Sam Bradford. Look for Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon to pick up the slack. Murray will be a hot add on the waiver wire this year, but if you are in a PPR league I would be looking to grab McKinnon.
Chris Carson (Leg) – Another promising rookie, another season-ending injury. Carson fractured his leg and has been placed on IR. He was looking to take over that backfield and was a hot add in the weeks leading up to the injury. This backfield just turned ugly with Eddie Lacy, C.J. Prosise, and Thomas Rawls all in the mix. Eddie Lacy is the hungriest of the bunch, but I would proceed with caution.
Ty Montgomery (Ribs) – New broke this morning that TY is dealing with multiple broken ribs. Although this is a painful injury, Montgomery has a shot to play this week and he said he will be fine. If he is starting, it is tough not to play him. This injury makes me nervous though. This could linger throughout the year and he is only one big hit away from leaving the game at any moment. Look for Aaron Jones to pick up the rock if he were to miss time. I like Aaron Jones as an add this week. Not only does he share a name with Rodgers, he has been getting praises from the gun-slinging A-A-Ron stating, “I’ve been a big fan of his since the beginning.”
Ameer Abdullah (Ankle) – Ameer rolled his ankle late in the game after looking rock solid against a stingy Vikings defense. Abdullah should be good to go this week but keep an eye on the injury reports. If he continues to be fed the rock, Abdullah could be a strong RB2 play for weeks to come.
Paul Perkins (Ribs) – I contemplated not even including this injury because the Giants and running backs go together like peanut butter and anchovies. It is worth noting because 4th round rookie Wayne Gallman came in and looked like a competent runner and could see more playing time. He should be worth a look in a backfield I would usually recommend avoiding. The Giants need to shake things up and McAdoo could be coaching for his job. Gallman looked like the best runner on the field and McAdoo would be crazy for not giving the kid a larger role moving forward.
Julio Jones (Hip) – Julio is no stranger to the injury report and left the game in week 4 and did not return. Thankfully the Falcons are on bye this week and it gives Julio some much-needed rest early in the season. He is not expected to miss any time.
Jordan Matthews (Thumb) – Jordan Matthews' thumb injury does require surgery and he is expected to be out at least a month. Matthews developed some great chemistry with Tyrod Taylor and this will be a blow to the “potent” passing attack of the Bills. I expect Charles Clay to get peppered with targets and Zay Jones to take on a bigger role in the passing game.
Mohamed Sanu (Hamstring) – Sanu is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury. With Sanu out and Julio hobbled, expect Taylor Gabriel and Justin Hardy to pick up more looks.
We're 2 weeks into the year and already have a laundry list of injured players to discuss. Just when we thought it could not get much worse, some more big players go down this week. Don’t throw in that towel! Stay active on the waiver wire and pucker your butthole for a long year of misfortune!
Quarterbacks
Sam Bradford (Knee) - There is so much scar tissue in Bradford’s knees, the team is unsure what is going on in there. The Vikings are calling it a bone bruise. He went through warm-ups before the game and threw a few balls before declaring himself out. Keep an eye out for an update on Wednesday. The whole offense takes a major dip if he is not on the field.
Other –
DeShone Kizer (Head/Migraine) - took some painkillers and returned to the game in the third quarter.
Running Backs
Fat Rob Kelley (Chest) – Fat Rob was having a respectable game before getting knocked out with a rib injury. The Redskins feared this was a fracture but that does not appear to be the case. He is currently Day to Day and we will have a better idea of his status later in the week
Jordan Howard (Shoulder) – Howard was spotted after the game in a sling. He was dealing with a shoulder injury going into this week and was just shy of a first down worth of rushing for the day. (9 rushes – 7 yards) Also worth noting that Cohen out-touched him 15-9 in a blowout game. We should know more tomorrow but John Fox is notorious for keeping injury information to himself.
DeMarco Murray (Hamstring) – Murray is day to day with a tight hamstring. He struggled against the Jags and Henry looked like the better RB on the field. I expect to see more and more of a split in that backfield. Get whatever value is left out of Murray while you can.
Rex Burkhead (Rib) – Burkhead caught a nice 19-yard touchdown on Sunday but was unable to finish the game. He went to the locker room in the fourth quarter and mum's the word since his exit. Gives a nice boost to James White if he is out but look at the injury report on Wednesday for an update.
Wide Receivers
Jordy Nelson (Quad) – Nelson left the game in the first quarter vs the Falcons after getting a knee to the thigh. He was seen riding an exercise bike during the game. This leads me to believe he got a good Charlie Horse and should be good to go this week. The current update is 50-50 for this week. Keep an eye on the situation and have a backup plan just in case.
Corey Coleman (Hand) – 2nd year Browns' receiver Corey Coleman is now 2 for 2 on seasons with broken hands. This time around it does require surgery so he is expected to land on IR. Shame to see after building some chemistry with DeMigraine Kizer. Not worth a hold unless you have an IR spot available.
Other Notable injuries:
Corey Davis (Hamstring) - Returned to game
Phillip Dorsett (Knee) - More patriot WR’s hurt. Not too fantasy relevant
Kendall Wright (Arm) - AVOID BEARS PLAYERS
Jeremy Maclin (Shoulder) - Returned to the game
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen (Foot) – Greg underwent surgery on his broken right foot today and has been placed on IR. Thankfully they did not have to remove it! The Panthers believe he will be back this season but he will not be eligible to practice for 6 weeks. Dickson will take over TE duties for the Panthers. You should have better options available on the waivers.
Jordan Reed (Chest) – Reed left in the third quarter of the game with a chest injury and did not return. Today, they are calling this a bruised chest which is a new one for me. Doesn’t seem like an issue and he should suit up week 3. The toe remains a concern.
Rob Gronkowski (Groin) – Gronk left the game and did not return after tweaking his groin. Gronk looked great before exiting the game and is expected to be good to go this weekend. Thankfully the injury is to a part of his body that sees the most exercise in the offseason so I expect a quick recovery.
Well, week 1 is already in the books and if you are in multiple leagues, I would guess you've been hit with an injury! Notable fantasy related injuries this week include David Johnson, Danny Woodhead, and the focus of this post, Allen Robinson.
Now before we dive into who could pick up the slack on your fantasy team, let’s look at what we lost. After a monster 2015 (80/1400, 14TDs), Robinson put up disappointing numbers in 2016. 73 receptions, 883 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Many experts were expecting a bounce back year and I am sure many teams were drafting AROB as their WR2 in the 4th or 5th round. With a Jaguars team that is more focused on pounding the ball, I expect to see stacked boxes forcing Bortles to throw downfield.
So we've determined a clear void in targets, who is going to step up? The two players getting the most discussion are Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns.
Marqise Lee is expected to be the new WR1 on the Jags and has an opportunity to prove himself. Last year, Lee put up 63/851, 3TDs (He even threw a TD to Blake Bortles on Christmas Eve against the Titans). I was very excited about Lee as a prospect when he was drafted out of USC in 2014 but he has yet to get the spotlight and showcase his talents. He has always been buried on the depth chart and was mostly on the field for 3WR sets. Lee is not a go-up-and-get-it type of receiver, but he does handle the ball well in traffic and is a good deep threat.
Allen Hurns should be no stranger to fantasy owners. In 2015, Hurns went 64/1031, 5TDs, giving fantasy players two respectable WRs to have on the Jaguars (crazy, I know). Last year, Hurns put up 35/477, 3TDs (only played 11 games).
During the preseason this year, the Jags were shopping Hurns and he didn’t draw much interest. There was speculation that he was going to be the 4th or 5th receiver on the charts behind DeDe Westbrook (IR) and Keelan Cole (Rookie from D2 Kentucky-Wesleyan). Hurns has a history with Bortles and I expect them to have the best chemistry of the available players.
Overall this is a poor place to be for the Jags and as a desperate fantasy owner. Of the two, I would lean toward Hurns being a better fantasy asset for the weeks to come. He is a bigger body and has a slightly better track record then Lee. I expect Lee to be more of a possession receiver with his value going to PPR leagues. Hurns will be more of a TD target when defenses are stacking the box in the red zone.
WRs I would target this week before Hurns and Lee would be: Cooper Kupp (26% owned), Kenny Golladay (17% owned), and Kendall Wright (15% owned). Kupp being my favorite WR option of the week.
TLDR: Avoid the Jags WRs and look elsewhere for your WR replacement. Jags are a run first team and I expect their defense to keep them in more games this year so we will not get those glorious garbage points like in years past.