Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

One-thousand, five hundred and twenty entries are all that’s between me and early retirement. It took 15 weeks to whittle the field of 1275 down to one in last year’s pool, so I should have my work cut out for me. I decided on two entries this year (mainly to make sure I survive week 1). The first few weeks of the season can be some of the toughest to predict, that’s why a quarter to half of all entrants usually drop out in these first few games. I was listening to an odds making expert on the radio suggesting picking weak teams in the first week to save the premium teams for later and went on to suggest taking the Cardinals over the Lions. I however do not subscribe to this philosophy and actually will pick the Lions in that game.

I say - don't make it hard until you have no choice. My picks this week are the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles. Those two teams are the biggest favorites at 9.5 and 10 respectively and are both playing their games at home. We have been shown nothing in the preseason from anyone this year so I will assume that the Redskins and Bengals will still suck.

Week 11 got under way on Thursday night with a thrilling game between the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks. This one was back and forth the whole way with the Seahawks eventually squeaking one out after Mike McCarthy decided to punt on fourth and two late in the 4^th quarter. The Pack was unable to come up with a stop with their one timeout and never saw the ball again.

The schedule this week is a brutal one for making picks, with many close match ups. Also, you have the Patriots, one of the best teams, on bye as well as 4 of the worst teams in the Bills, Jets, Browns, and 49ers. If I hadn't watched the games last week my pick would have been a slam dunk choosing the Falcons at home against the Cowboys. However I did watch and the Falcons looked pathetic against the Browns, the Cowboys put a beating on the Eagles and the Titans proved they were for real vs the Pats, making the Cowboys loss to them in the previous week not look so bad.

So, facing a tough decision, I've decided to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers in their match up with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last season the Jags had the Steelers number, but this is a new year and Pitt has been rolling as of late and appear to be peaking at the right time, while the Jags are back to blaming Blake Bortles for all their woes. Only two other teams are bigger favorites than the 5.5 the Steelers are getting on the road in this one. Both of those teams have more dangerous offensive opponents. The Saints are 8.5 point favorites hosting the Eagles, and the Chargers are 7.5 point favorites hosting the Broncos (however Carson isn't a home field advantage for the Chargers).

Cheers,

Drink Five!

Two weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals put up a gutsy performance defeating the San Francisco 49ers 18-15 at home while Larry Fitzgerald's son attended the state fair. Unfortunately, I watched some of this game. Now, fresh off their bye week, the Cardinals are poised to pick up their second straight victory when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. Just kidding! This Cardinals team could not beat the Chiefs if they had a million weeks to prepare!

Currently the Chiefs are sitting as 16.5 point favorites in this one. While the Browns did give them a little trouble last week in the first half keeping it within 6 points before ultimately getting blown out 37-21, Josh Rosen will suffer the same fate as Baker Mayfield. This is my clear cut pick for the week if you have the luxury of still using the Chiefs.

If you are not so lucky, I would recommend using the Chargers on the road vs. the Raiders. The team clearly quit on coach Jon Gruden last week in a touchdown-less blowout loss to the 49ers. If both those have been used I like this week as an opportunity to use an unreliable Jets team at home vs. the Bills.

Normally, I'd shy away from the Jets here as the Bills players have to see this as a rare game in which they have a chance of winning, But, with Darnold out that leaves the Jets with veteran QB Josh Mccown. The wiley vet will only have to outperform human interception machine Nathan Peterman, which means just complete more passes to your team than to your opponent. I'm just now reading Buffalo media being hopeful that freshly signed Matt Barkley will get the start. So in other words, they are hoping for a QB who doesn't know the offense to get the nod. Yikes!

Cheers,

Drink Five!

Well, the Vikings twisted the knife that was put in my heart week one by the Saints loss, and ended my dream of survivor riches. Boy am I looking forward to tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Vikings of Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams. Clearly, the Vikings have been preparing for this game for two weeks based on their performance last week against the Bills. It has been 23 years since an NFL team has been favored by as much as the Vikings were last week vs the Bills and lost, a truly historic game. I haven't watched much Vikings football this season, but on paper it seems to me that we are all finding out why the Redskins wouldn't pay Kirk Cousins. I got the Rams in this game and if it wasn't for some uncertainty at corner-back caused by injury, I would like the Rams in a runaway.

On to my not-never-wrong survivor lock pick of the week. The three largest favorites this week (as if that means anything) are the Chargers -10.5, Packers -9.5, and the Jaguars -7.5. Out of these three I am going to eliminate the Packers from my options, Josh Allen has two legs and Aaron Rodgers only has one. The Pack still probably get the win here but I'm just not comfortable picking the Packers until Rodgers looks healthier.

I like the Jags at home against Sam Darnold and the Jets. That defense is just too good and I think they will be able to confuse the rookie QB. I was given a little bit of pause by the Jags loss to the Titans last week, but I guess it was “for the boys”.

That brings me to my pick the San Diego - I mean Los Angeles Chargers. If you didn't already use the Chargers in week 2 against the Bills, this is the next best spot for them. They get the 49ers and backup QB C.J. Beathard coming in for a bounce back game. San Francisco's season went down the crapper when Jimmy “G-spot” tore up his knee on a moronic sideline cutback play. Never have I heard so much hate on a guy for an injury. The Chargers looked like a borderline playoff team against the Rams last week and could easily win the division if their defense ever shows up.

Cheers! Drink Five!