Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Championship week is upon us. There are several rookies who have helped us get here along the way, but few that are easy to trust this week whether due to injury or tough matchups. This week is slated to have 8 rookie QBs under center, but unless you are in a 2QB league you probably won’t be starting any of them in your championships. The rookies that matter this week are the top tier running backs and the handful of receivers that have shown to be useful weekly options. I’ll still talk a bit about the QBs and a few deeper league guys that could help in DFS this week, but I know who you’re here to see. A lot of the rookie RBs and WRs are listed as borderline options. Keep in mind that all the guys at the same position and same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s look at which rookies could help carry you across the finish line…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Alexander Mattison, Min (Wk. 16: vs. GB): I’m listing Mattison here to emphasize just how much I like him if he’s somehow able to play. He still wasn’t practicing Friday, and the Vikings don’t play until Monday night. There is a real chance that you don’t have much clarity on his status until Monday. The Packers have struggled to defend opposing backs all year, coughing up the 8^th-most PPR points to the position and ranking 25^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Dalvin Cook torched them for 191 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the first meeting, and Green Bay has allowed a double-digit scorer at the position in half PPR scoring in 13 of their last 14 games. Damien Williams ended up with 9 in the other one. Mattison was considered a high value handcuff all year. This is the reason why. There has been a lot of hype this week for Mike Boone on fantasy twitter, and it’s warranted if Mattison isn’t able to play, but if Mattison does play he could win you your league. If you have other quality options that play Saturday or Sunday, I’d certainly consider starting them rather than waiting on Mattison, but if your other options are guys like Tevin Coleman or Carlos Hyde or other low-upside RB3 types, I’d move Mattison to a flex spot, pick up a Packers’ receiver as a fallback and hope he plays (assuming you weren’t able to get Boone as your fallback). Jake Kumerow should be available in most leagues. If Mattison does play, I like his chances to be a top-15 finisher at the position this week.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): It feels like Murray is close to turning a corner as a passer in his young career. After an up and down first half of the season, he’s posted a passer rating of 98 or better in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s also posted 12 total touchdowns in that span (10 passing, 2 rushing). The Seahawks are a slightly above average pass defense, ranking 12^th in pass defense DVOA, but this could turn into a shootout. Along with Tampa-Houston, this game is tied for the highest Vegas total of the week. Murray is a bit volatile for my tastes if I’m starting him as my QB1, but he should be a strong QB2 option this week and an interesting DFS play at a reasonable $6,100 on DraftKings.

 

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Atlanta has been playing improved football over the past several weeks, and to be honest I’m not quite sure how they’ve pulled it off. They’re missing their top corner Dez Trufant and have their number 2 and 3 guys battling injuries as well, and this week sent leading pass rusher Takk McKinley to IR, yet they’ve managed to go 4-2 since their bye week and have held Kyle Allen, Drew Brees and Jimmy Garoppolo to an average of just 207 passing yards in their last 3 games. I’m not sure that Minshew is the guy to break that trend. He hasn’t had quite the same magic since being re-inserted into the starting role, but he showed flashes of getting it back last week in a comeback win against Oakland. If he’s able to carry over the way he played late in that game, he should have a great chance to finish as a mid-range QB2 this week. Despite their recent improved play, the Falcons still allow the 5^th-most QB points per game for the year.

 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Jones has been cleared to return this week, and he gets to face a Washington defense that can be burned by mediocre QBs. The list of QBs that have tallied 3 total touchdowns or more against Washington this year includes Mitch Trubisky, Kyle Allen, and Sam Darnold, but Jones’ Achilles heel has been turnovers and it’s one that Washington can exploit. Washington’s overall numbers aren’t terrible. They rank a middling 18^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 14^th-most QB points per game. Jones has turned the ball over 20 times in his 10 starts this year, and Washington has forced 8 QB turnovers in their last 5. There is a bit of a ceiling to chase this week with Jones, but coming off a high ankle sprain I wouldn’t expect him to augment his score much with his legs. I’d view him more as an upside QB2 than anything else this week.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): Over the last 4 weeks, Sanders has averaged almost 16 carries and just over 5 targets per game. He doesn’t always make the most of his opportunities, but he’s playing well enough to be a fantasy asset when his usage looks like that. The Eagles are going to be without Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor again, so his passing game work should be secure. The key for how big a ceiling he has will come down to how efficient he is with his rushing attempts. We’ve seen him not always show the best vision and ability to get what’s blocked. He’ll have to do a better job of that here if the Eagles hope to win. Even if he doesn’t, Sanders should be on the cusp of the RB2 range. He has a top-10 ceiling and should probably be in your lineup this week unless you have a stud to play ahead of him.

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Singletary has been one of the brightest spots of the entire rookie class this year, but he gets a tough draw for championship week. He’s been held below 79 scrimmage yards just once since week 9 but must go to Foxboro to battle the Patriots’ league-best defense this week. New England has hung their hat on not letting running backs into the end zone. They’ve given up just two running back scores all year. Singletary hasn’t been putting up his points on touchdowns, so there is still a chance for him to post a nice day. If you’ve been starting him all year and have been happy with his output, you should strongly consider playing him again this week. This is unlikely to be a ceiling week for him, so he’s more of a contrarian DFS play, but the Pats have given up 90+ scrimmage yards to 6 different running backs this year. It’s probably close to a 50/50 bet that Singletary makes it 7 this week.

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 16: vs. KC): David Montgomery with good on-paper matchups might be one of the most frustrating things in fantasy football this year. Even when he gets good usage and runs well, the final stat line ends up being unsatisfying. Will this week continue that trend? Kansas City allows the 3^rd-most running back PPR points per game. They’re bad against the run, ranking 30^th in run defense DVOA, and they’re bad at limiting backs as receivers, coughing up the 2^nd-most RB receiving yards per game. Monty is unlikely to take advantage of their struggles to stop pass catching backs. Even as Montgomery has rattled off a stretch of 8 consecutive games with at least 15 touches, he’s been out-targeted by Tarik Cohen 47-19. It’ll likely take a touchdown for you to be happy with Monty’s output. He’s had red zone usage with 7 carries inside the 20 in the last 5 games, but none of them have ended in 6 points. Montgomery is best viewed as a high floor, low ceiling RB3.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. NO): AJ has been a revelation since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB. He’s put up the bulk of his fantasy points with Tannehill in 3 blowup games against bad defenses, but he’s still averaged 77.5 yards per game across all of Tannehill’s 8 starts. The Saints rank a respectable 10^th in pass defense DVOA, but they allow the 8^th-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers. The Saints haven’t proven to be a matchup to run away from, and I don’t see how you sit a player that has put up 23.5 PPR points or more 3 times in his last 4 games. I can live with starting Brown this week and him flopping much more easily that I’d be able to live with benching him if he blows up again.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. Ari.): Metcalf has been remarkably steady from a fantasy perspective in the 2^nd half of the season. He’s topped at least 11 PPR points in 6 of his last 7 games and had at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of the last 6. He hasn’t really shown the kind of ceiling that we’d hope for in recent weeks, but this may be a week where he’s able to do that. Only Detroit and Oakland allow more completions for 20+ yards than the Cardinals do. Metcalf fell flat in the first meeting between these teams with just 1 catch for 6 yards, but he’s become a much bigger cog in the offense since then. With Seattle favored by 9 and a half points, there is a chance this gets out of hand early and Metcalf winds up with a poor day, but I think it’s more likely that Metcalf comes up with a deep catch or two before things are settled.

 

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): McLaurin made it two weeks in a row with a touchdown last Sunday and posted his best yardage day of the season, and this week he faces a New York defense that has given up the 6^th-most WR PPR points per game. They also rank an abysmal 30^th in pass defense DVOA. McLaurin seems to have re-established his connection with his college QB, but Washington’s run-first attack and inconsistent QB play always lurk as threats to Scary Terry’s opportunities. The passing game should still run through McLaurin, especially the high value deep targets, but just know that his chances to bust are a little higher than your average WR2 option.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Slayton managed to salvage his fantasy day with a touchdown Sunday, but the low volume might have been alarming for those of you who started Slayton last week. The Giants were playing the Dolphins and won easily. It isn’t something that happens often for them and they were able to lean on the run game late. This game should be a bit more competitive. Prior to last week, Slayton had been targeted 38 times in the previous 4 weeks.  Some of that came with other receivers sidelined, so don’t expect Slayton to be targeted 10+ times this week, but he should be more involved than he was last Sunday. Washington isn’t a terrible pass defense. They rank 18^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13^th-fewest WR PPR points per game, but Slayton has proven to be a threat to find the end zone in every game, and he’s scored multiple TDs 3 times this year. He’s got the kind of upside you don’t want to leave on your bench if you’re between him and a lower ceiling option.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Week 15 didn’t go according to plan for Deebo. He was held to single-digit PPR points for the first time since week 9 in what looked like a plus matchup on paper. This week’s matchup looks a little less inviting. That could change if it turns out Jalen Ramsey is going to shadow Emmanuel Sanders. The Rams have deployed Ramsey in shadow coverage in spots this year, but with San Francisco being a run 1^st offense with a tight end as their leading receiver, I’d be surprised if Ramsey is deployed that way in this one. That means both receivers will see a bit of him. Samuel is still in play as an upside WR3 this week. He’s shown the ability to post solid fantasy games with limited opportunity. He may have to do so again this week.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 16: @Cle.): Brown has been a volatile weekly option for fantasy lineups, and I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger on starting him this week with the title at stake. The Browns gave up three 100-yard days to wide receivers in the first 3 weeks of the season and have allowed just one since. Brown was held mostly in check in the first meeting between these two teams with 4 catches for 22 yards on 7 targets. In the past 5 weeks Brown has had PPR scores of 21.2 and 14.5 points…and failed to reach 5 points in any of the other 3 games. The highs are fun, but the lows are low for Hollywood. This doesn’t look like a smash spot for him, so I would suggest thinking long and hard about it before putting him into your championship lineups.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Fant has played fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games, but he also topped 50 receiving yards in each, a mark he reached just twice all year before week 14. The Lions have been better against tight ends this year than their recent history, but still allow the 15^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t look for Fant to post a blowup game this week, but he’s been utilized enough by Lock that he’s in play as a low-end TE1 for a consolation game. I wouldn’t be excited about him in a championship.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): There is an outside shot that Hodges puts up a better game than expected this week since the Jets are strong against the run and may force Pittsburgh to throw more than they typically would, but we’ve seen Hodges fail to cash in against bad pass defenses a couple times now. The Cardinals are the worst QB defense in the league; The Bengals are bottom-10; The Browns are bottom-half, and Hodges didn’t reach 15 fantasy points against any of them. Sure, the Bengals’ game is tough to count since he didn’t start and instead replaced an ineffective Mason Rudolph, but I still wouldn’t want to bet on this week being the first time Hodges posts a big day.

 

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 16: @Den.): Since throwing his second 1^st-quarter touchdown against the Bears on Thanksgiving, Blough has posted just 5.16 yards per attempt and thrown just 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions across almost 3 full games. This week he faces a Denver defense that allows the 9^th-fewest QB points per game. A low upside option in a bad matchup is not a recipe for fantasy success.

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Last week was a fun one to have Pollard in best ball leagues as Dallas unexpectedly trounced the Rams and Pollard piled up points in garbage time. Don’t treat that as a reason to start him this week. The Cowboys are unlikely to put that kind of beating on Philly, and the Eagles allow the 9^th-fewest RB points per game. Sure, there is a chance that the Cowboys decide to give Pollard a bit more work this week after his impressive performance, but chasing last week’s unexpected points is a recipe for disaster.

 

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): It’s been nice seeing Thompson get a chance to get on the field and produce some fantasy points these past few weeks. He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he’s flashed some of the talent that made people excited about him this preseason. Still, he was only playing about a third of the offensive snaps each of the past 3 weeks with Damien Williams out, splitting time with LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware. Williams is going to return this week and push him back to the bench or at least into a smaller role. I’m out on Darwin this week.

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 16: @LAC): Just listing Jacobs in case you missed the news that he’s taking the week off to rest his ailing shoulder. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard will work in his place.

 

RBs Benny Snell & Kerrith Whyte, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): With James Conner back on the field last week, Snell & Whyte combined to play just 8 offensive snaps. The Jets rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA and Snell still costs nearly $5,000 on DraftKings. Steer well clear of this duo.

 

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Harry appears to have pushed Meyers and Phillip Dorsett to the bench for now, playing 38 snaps last week while the other 2 combined for 19, but we’ve seen New England switch things up before. This isn’t a great matchup to play any New England wide receivers, even Julian Edelman who is clearly playing at less than 100% and just put up a 9-yard game last week. The Bills allow the 4^th-fewest PPR points to the position and rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard receiver all year and only 8 receivers to reach 10 fantasy points in half-PPR. This isn’t the week to try Harry or Meyers in DFS or regular lineups.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 16: @Chi.): You know the drill with Mecole by now. With the full complement of Kansas City receivers healthy, Hardman just isn’t playing a whole lot. He’s made some exciting splash plays in those limited snaps and gotten in the end zone a few times, but that’s what you’re banking on if you use Hardman in any format, and the Bears have allowed just 7 offensive plays of 40+ yards all year against them. Mecole isn’t even the most likely guy on his own team to cash in on a big play as long as Tyreek Hill is around.

 

WRs Kelvin Harmon & Steven Sims, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Both of these players have made some positive plays this year, but the passing volume just isn’t robust enough to consider anyone but McLaurin for fantasy lineups right now. The matchup this week is conducive to throwing the ball, but we’ve seen Haskins throw 30+ times just once in 6 starts, and the highest value targets are going to McLaurin. If I were scrounging for a deep DFS sleeper for tournaments I’d prefer Sims to Harmon as he’s been targeted 18 times in the last 2 weeks, but both have low ceilings unless they’re getting in the end zone.

 

WRs Hunter Renfrow & Keelan Doss, OAK (Wk. 16: @LAC): Renfrow is on track to return this week, but the injury that sidelined him was cracked ribs and a punctured lung suffered just a few weeks ago. I’d be surprised if the Raiders throw him back into a full-time role in his first game back no matter how good they claim he looks in practice. He was just a low-upside PPR WR4 most weeks before suffering the injury. His return will also render Doss unplayable. It was Doss who had picked up the extra snaps at WR in his absence. I’d stay away from both this week as the Chargers allow the 3^rd-fewest WR PPR points per game.

 

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. GB): With Adam Thielen back in the lineup, Bisi was limited to 26 offensive snaps and one passing game target. He’ll be irrelevant for fantasy purposes with both Diggs and Thielen on the field. No team plays fewer 3-wide sets than Minnesota.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Although he found the end zone last Sunday and this week faces a defense allowing the 9^th-most PPR points per game to tight ends, Smith is at best a touchdown dart throw this week. He’s playing plenty of snaps, but this just remains such a low volume passing attack that he isn’t getting enough opportunity to break through to fantasy relevance when he doesn’t find the end zone. It doesn’t help Smith that the team’s number 3 tight end Tyler Conklin has been playing 40+ percent of the snaps in each of the last 2 weeks as well. Irv’s cheap in DFS, but there are higher-upside tight ends to chase.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Knox has been an afterthought in the Bills’ offense for the last month, and I don’t see this as the week where that changes. In his last 4 games, the rookie has pulled in a total of 7 passes for 76 yards on 11 targets, and New England allows the 7^th-fewest TE PPR points per game.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Lock has acquitted himself pretty well since taking over as the starting QB in Denver. He struggled last week in snowy conditions in Kansas City, but he performed well against the Chargers in his debut and shredded a mediocre pass defense in Houston two weeks ago. This week he gets to face the best matchup he’s gotten so far. Detroit has allowed 5 of the last 9 teams they’ve played to throw for *at least* 320 yards and 3 touchdowns. I’m not suggesting that Lock will put up those kinds of numbers. The Broncos are a touchdown favorite and will likely lean on the run game if they get out in front, but something in the range of 15-20 fantasy points wouldn’t be surprising for Lock. He’s a sneaky QB2 this week and an intriguing cheap DFS option.

 

QB Will Grier, CAR (Wk. 16: @Ind.): The Will Grier era in Carolina is upon us, at least for the next two weeks. Grier was known as a gunslinger in college. He was willing to push the ball down the field and had great results at West Virginia. He averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt and threw 37 touchdowns as a senior. He had a shaky preseason where he connected on just 1 of 11 deep passes and ultimately lost the backup job to Kyle Allen, but he’s behind Allen no more. As Carolina has fallen out of the playoff picture with 6 consecutive losses, they’ve finally decided to give Grier a shot. Grier’s debut comes in a pretty good matchup for him. The Colts allow the 10^th-most QB points per game and have given up the 5^th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. They don’t give up a lot of deep balls, but this still feels like a game where Grier may connect downfield with Curtis Samuel a couple times. Grier costs barely more than the QB minimum on DraftKings, and Indy has coughed up 762 passing yards and 8 touchdown tosses in the last two weeks. There are worse options out there if you want to take a crazy swing in a DFS tournament.

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Haskins had his best yardage game as a pro last weekend and gets a favorable matchup this weekend as well. The Giants allow the 8^th-most QB points per game and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. The Giants are much better against the run, ranking 8^th in run defense DVOA, so the burden to make plays will likely fall on Haskins. It remains to be seen which team will be more motivated to win this game. The winning team will get rivalry bragging rights, but the losing team will likely get to draft Chase Young. I don’t know that I expect Haskins to do enough to be trusted in lineups, but 200+ yards and 2 scores isn’t out of the question this week, and he’s only hit those marks twice in 6 starts.

 

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been a defense to target with your running backs all year, and that will hold true even in this toilet bowl of a matchup. The question of which running back to target them with this week got a little more muddled with Gaskin playing the same number of offensive snaps as Laird in week 15, but I think both have a chance to return nice value. Cincinnati ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and coughs up the 6^th-most RB PPR points per game. Neither player would be trustworthy in your league championship, but in deep leagues and DFS tournaments both are worth looking at. I’d still prefer Laird over Gaskin. He got the start and played most of the first two drives on Sunday, but Gaskin will be involved moving forward as well. Even as the playing time evened up, Laird still handled 3 more carries and 2 more targets than Gaskin.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): Johnson becomes much harder to trust if JuJu Smith-Schuster returns this week, but he’s carved out a nice role for himself with JuJu sidelined and Duck Hodges under center. Diontae has been targeted 15 times in the last 2 weeks and turned in 11-122-1 with at least 60 yards in each game. The Jets have proven to be a strong run defense and bad pass defense, which plays into Johnson’s hands a bit. They allow the 10^th-most WR PPR points per game despite playing a pretty easy WR schedule. The only top-14 WRs (in total PPR points) they’ve faced all year are Julian Edelman and Amari Cooper, and Cooper got hurt very early on in their meeting. Disregard Johnson if JuJu suits up, but if not, he’s got interesting upside for deep leagues.

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): I know, talking about using JJ in any format feels like a joke at this point, and a bad one if you have him in any dynasty leagues. I don’t know if there is such a thing as a contrarian flyer in DFS, but that’s what I would call JJ this week. He costs just $3,500 in DraftKings and he’s been playing more than 90% of Philly’s offensive snaps with Alshon and Agholor out. He only has 6 targets and 2 catches to show for it in the last two weeks, but he also has 4 red zone targets in the last 5 games. It’s almost purely a gut call, but I have a feeling that Arcega-Whiteside cashes in his opportunities this week and posts a surprising 2 touchdown game. The Cowboys rank just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA.

 

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Smith became a bit of a forgotten man in the past 2 weeks as Eli Manning filled in at quarterback. That could change this week with Daniel Jones back at the helm. With Jones under center Smith was targeted 14 times in weeks 12 & 13, tallying 11-87-1. With Eli in he was targeted just 8 times in the last 2 games and ended up with just 5 catches for 47 yards. There is some threat that Rhett Ellison returns this week, but Smith seemed to have a connection with Jones, and Washington allows the 5^th-most TE PPR points per game. It would be a big leap of faith to use Smith in the fantasy championship with Ellison looming, but I could see my way to using him in DFS lineups.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s semifinal week, so hopefully your fantasy squad is still alive and kicking, and hopefully you didn’t get hit too hard by injuries last week. There were a number of players who saw their season cut short last weekend. Alshon Jeffery, Rashaad Penny, Mike Evans, Derrius Guice and Calvin Ridley were just some of the casualties that could have you looking for replacements this week. There are a few rookies who might be able to help you out with that this week. Let’s take a look at which rookies are in line for big things this week. Keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I’d play them this week…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): Jacobs missed last week with a cracked bone in his shoulder, but he had been playing through it pretty well for weeks before sitting in week 14, and all indications are that he will play this week. The Jaguars have gone in the tank in the last few weeks and have been one of the worst run defenses in the league. They rank 31^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allow the 4^th-most RB PPR points per game. They’ve allowed five 100-yard rushers in their last 5 games and 10 running back scores in those games. Jacobs is a strong RB2 play this week if all systems are go with his shoulder.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Arizona’s offense has looked a bit different in recent weeks compared to the early part of the season. They’ve moved away from the 4-wide receiver base sets they were using early in the year and started using the tight end position and 2-back sets more often. It’s hurt Murray’s passing yardage output but helped him find the end zone more frequently. In the first 8 games of the year, Murray totaled just 7 TD passes and averaged just under 250 yards per game. In the last 5, he’s found the end zone 9 times but averaged 215 yards per game. I’d look for him to be around 200 yards in this one, but if you play him, you’re hoping for multiple touchdowns and some rushing production for him to return value. For their part, the Browns have allowed the 8^th-most QB rushing yards per game and did let Ryan Fitzpatrick go for 45 and a score on the ground a couple weeks ago. Murray is best treated as a top-flight QB2 option with upside for more this week.

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Monty has proven to be difficult to trust on a weekly basis, but the matchup here is a good one. Green Bay has been shredded on the ground for much of the season. They rank 26^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-most RB points per game. The Bears’ offense has been playing better lately and Montgomery has had at least 15 touches in 7 straight games. I’d expect him to be in the 15-20 touch range in this one, and that puts him on the RB2 radar against such a burnable defense. Montgomery did get a questionable tag this week, so make sure he plays before you start him, but the upside is there.

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Singletary faces a tough matchup this week, but his usage keeps him in the flex conversation. The Steelers rank 4^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, but the biggest reason they’ve been so good against the position is their ability to keep backs out of the end zone. They haven’t allowed a running back rushing score since week 5 and have given up just 6 RB scores all year. Singletary is going to be heavily involved and should be a nice play in PPR leagues. The Steelers are favored in this one, and Singletary has had at least 6 targets in the passing game in all 3 of the Bills’ losses this year. I’d expect nice passing game usage again.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): Sanders had a forgettable performance on Monday night, showing a lack of vision that eventually had him ceding work to Boston Scott. Scott impressed enough in his opportunities that I’d expect him to steal more work from Sanders going forward. Washington is not a challenging match-up for running backs, allowing the 10^th-most PPR points per game and ranking 24^th in run defense DVOA, so even if Sanders doesn’t get a full workload he may still return usable value. There’s risk here, but Sanders is still worth consideration for a flex spot.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Brown’s match-up looked like a smash spot on paper, and he made good on it in a big way. He gets another plus matchup this week, but not quite as juicy as the one with Oakland. The Texans rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA but aren’t as giving to wide receivers as that number would imply. They allow the 15^th-most WR points per game. Brown’s production has come from big plays, and the Texans allow the 9^th-most passes of 20+ and 40+ yards. The last 2 games are the first times all year that Brown has out-snapped Corey Davis. He’s unquestionably the WR1 in Nashville now, and his connection with Tannehill has been solid. There is still a bit of a low floor with Brown, but we’ve also seen the ceiling and he’s got 80+ yards in 3 of the last 5 games. Brown is a volatile WR3 this week.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Samuel has been on fire over the last month. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 5 straight games after reaching that mark just twice in his first 7 games of the season. This week the 49ers face off with Atlanta, who allows the 12^th-most WR points per game and ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA. They also just lost both of their starting corners to injury last week. This looks like a smash spot for Deebo (and Emmanuel Sanders), but the concern is that it gets out of hand early and the Niners lean on the run. San Francisco is favored by 11 points, and Deebo has fewer than 5 targets in 2 of the last 3 games. I do like his chances at a strong game this week but be aware that there is some risk.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 15: @Car.): Metcalf has become the most consistent part of the Seahawks’ passing attack in recent weeks. He has at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of his last 5 games even as the overall passing volume for the team has been down. Seattle hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game since November 3^rd. Carolina is the worst run defense in the league, so there should be a lot of Chris Carson and limited pass volume again. Metcalf is still in play as a WR3 this week. Despite their struggles against running backs, the Panthers have also managed to allow the 7^th-most WR points per game. The limited volume puts a little damper on Metcalf’s ceiling, but he’s shown a solid floor that makes him a decent option this week.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Slayton showed out on Monday night, proving that his production wasn’t just tied to Daniel Jones. This week he gets to face the Dolphins, who allow 4^th-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, so there is plenty of upside. The potential return of Evan Engram could pull some targets away from him, but Slayton is in the WR3 discussion regardless of who suits up for the Giants. I would move him to the ‘Rookies to Start’ section if Engram sits again.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Brown has been a volatile weekly fantasy option this year. He’s topped 20 PPR points twice and topped 15 four times. He’s also finished below 7 points 5 times. The Jets are a solid run defense, and not so solid against the pass. They’ve allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game and rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. I’d expect the Ravens to try and get Brown going this week after catching 3 passes for negative 2 yards last week, but they might not be throwing much in the second half. He’ll have to do his damage early. Brown is a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Fant is questionable for this week after suffering an injury last weekend, but if he plays, he’s got a nice opportunity at a strong game. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Denver is likely to be playing from behind and throwing and Fant has scored 10+ PPR points in 3 of the last 5 games (20+ in 2 of them). I wouldn’t be considering him over an elite option at the position, but he’s not too far behind that group this week if it sounds like he’s close to 100%.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): I’d be tempted to consider Blough as a deep sleeper this week if he hadn’t lost Marvin Jones for the year last Sunday. Tampa is the best run defense in the league in terms of DVOA, but they are just 19^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-most QB points per game. We’ve seen that Blough has a willingness to push the ball down the field, and the Bucs have been burnable. He’s still got Kenny Golladay, but the limited weapons and limited track record make Blough impossible to trust with your season on the line.

 

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Lock has been a big surprise in his first two starts, but I think the hot streak ends this week. Kansas City has been playing at a high level lately. They rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last 3 games they’ve allowed just 3 passing scores and have 7 interceptions. Lock has fared well through two games, but they were against below average pass defenses. The Chiefs are not that despite allowing the 12th-most QB points per game for the year. Lock may be able to produce in garbage time if Kansas City gets out in front, but I wouldn’t be inclined to start him outside of deeper 2-QB leagues.

 

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Hodges should finally have a full complement of weapons to work with as JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are both expected back, but Buffalo is one of the toughest QB defenses in the league. The Bills allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game and rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges failed to capitalize on a great match-up last week, finishing as just the QB23 due to limited passing volume. I wouldn’t want to roll him out there expecting more this week in a bad match-up.

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Do you really want to risk your season on a player who has thrown for less than 200 yards in 4 of 5 starts and thrown just 3 touchdowns all year? I didn’t think so.

 

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): Thompson finally saw some real playing time last week, but still played fewer snaps than both LeSean McCoy and a fresh off the street Spencer Ware and he didn’t touch the ball until the Chiefs were up two scores. It’s entirely possible the Chiefs get out in front again this week. They’re 9 and a half point favorites, but they also are likely to have Damien Williams back. The best-case scenario for Thompson is that he gets some late run with the Chiefs out in front, but Denver allows the 12^th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing backs. You could talk yourself into trying him as a cheap DFS tournament option, but not much more.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Don’t be tempted to try Johnson with Bo Scarbrough likely to miss this week. The upside just isn’t there. He’s still going to be splitting work with JD McKissic, and the Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game in the league and rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. Look elsewhere.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Dalvin Cook clearly looked healthy enough last week against Detroit, which means Mattison will continue playing second fiddle. He’s been his most productive in blowout wins, and the Chargers just don’t get blown out. They haven’t lost by more than 7 points all year. LA does struggle to stop the run. They rank 23^rd in run defense DVOA and allow 13^th-most RB points per game. Mattison will get some touches, but this probably isn’t the best week to run him out there. He’s averaged 49.5 rushing yards per game in the 7 games Minnesota won by 2+ scores, and 16.4 in the 7 games they didn’t.

 

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Snell’s run as the Steelers’ lead back is likely to come to an end this week. James Conner is likely to return Sunday night, and we’ve seen Snell’s efficiency and fantasy production drop over the last 3 games anyway. The Bills are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air (they rank 17^th in run defense DVOA), but I expect Snell to be playing just a change of pace role to Conner at most. If Conner is somehow out again, Snell becomes more of a dicey flex play.

 

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Although there is a great chance that the Ravens win in a waltz Thursday night, we’ve seen that happen several times this year and it hasn’t turned into garbage time production for Hill. Baltimore is favored by 16.5 points in this game, but that likely means a lot of Gus Edwards in the second half. Even if Hill gets extra opportunity late, the Jets rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA.

 

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Washington’s passing attack just isn’t consistent enough to trust any of the pass catchers in it in the most important weeks of the season. Philly does allow the 5^th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, so I understand if you have to start McLaurin in a deeper league. He’s the only receiver that has shown enough to even consider. The Eagles have been burned by Darius Slayton and DeVante Parker in the last two weeks, but each guy may have caught for more yards than Haskins is likely to throw for this week.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Johnson posted a nice game last weekend, but the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster will be a problem for him moving forward. Devlin Hodges is averaging just 20 pass attempts and 1 TD in his starts, and with JuJu taking a handful of those targets, it’s hard to imagine more than just a few for Diontae. You’re banking on a touchdown if you play him, and Buffalo is one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. I’m staying away from Johnson this week.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): The big plays are enticing, but Hardman has just 8 offensive touches in the last 6 games. He’s been productive with those touches, but they aren’t enough to count on with your season on the line.

 

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 15: @Cin.): Harry missed out on a touchdown last week on a blown call by the officials, but it was his only target of the game. Meyers continued to play a decent amount of the offensive snaps but has seen his targets drop each of the last two weeks as Sanu and Dorsett get healthier. The duo combined for 2 catches and 47 yards last week. There just isn’t enough here to trust in the semifinals.

 

WR Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL (Wk. 15: @SF): Zaccheaus came out of nowhere to score a 93-yard touchdown last week, but it was his only target of the game. He should see additional work moving forward with Calvin Ridley done for the year, but this week draws one of the best pass defenses in the league. San Francisco ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers.

 

WR Riley Ridley, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Ridley was the receiver thrust into action with Javon Wims going down with injury last Thursday, but there isn’t a lot of leftover receiving work to go around after Allen Robinson, and Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen will both be ahead of Ridley in the pecking order. Monitor Ridley to see how he performs with extended opportunity, but don’t use him in fantasy lineups.

 

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Adam Thielen is on track to return this week, and Bisi wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire in his absence. The Chargers aren’t a great matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. I wouldn’t consider Johnson anywhere this week.

 

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): It looks like Evan Engram has a good chance to return this week, and even if he doesn’t there are higher upside options out there than Smith. I’d stay away from him this week. As bad as the Dolphins have been, they are at least a middling defense against tight ends.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): The Steelers have allowed just one tight end to reach 30 receiving yards since their week 7 bye, and Knox has just 8 catches in the last 4 weeks. Knox is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): The Chargers allow the 9^th-fewest TE points per game, and the return of Adam Thielen this week should leave less passing volume to go around to the other weapons. Smith hasn’t had many fantasy relevant weeks this season, and I wouldn’t count on this to be one either.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 15: @Oak.): Minshew hasn’t looked quite the same since being re-inserted into the lineup in place of Nick Foles, but the Raiders are a perfect spot for him to get right. Oakland has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. The Jaguars are likely to lean on Leonard Fournette, so there may not be a ton of volume for Gardner, but against this defense he should make the most of the passes he does throw, and he’s always a candidate to add a few points with his legs. I like his chances of finishing as at least a mid-QB2, but he is just the 27^th-highest priced QB on DraftKings at $5,500.

 

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 15: @NYG): Laird was the full time running back last week in the Dolphins’ first game since Kalen Ballage was hurt, playing 82% of the offensive snaps. While 15 carries for 48 yards doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, it’s more impressive than it looks on the surface. Ballage couldn’t manage to run for 2 yards per carry behind this offensive line. Laird averaged 3.2 per carry against the defense that ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. The Giants aren’t a pushover, but they aren’t as stingy against runners as the Jets. Laird has also seen 5 targets in each of the last 2 games, making him an interesting option in PPR leagues. I know it’s not exciting to start any Dolphins’ offensive players, but Laird is at least intriguing as a flex option in deeper leagues.

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): The Eagles have to throw the ball to someone, and only JJ and Greg Ward are healthy at this point. The Eagles will undoubtedly use two tight end sets as their base offense, but JJAW will be on the field almost every snap. Washington ranks 18^th in pass defense DVOA and Arcega-Whiteside is a big bodied receiver who excels in the red zone. He’s as good a bet as any Eagle pass catcher to find the end zone this week.

 

WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 15: @Det.): Miller is practicing this week and looks likely to return. I’ve seen a lot of fantasy pundits talking up Justin Watson this week with Mike Evans done for the year, but Miller and Breshad Perriman were both playing ahead of him before Miller got hurt. The Lions allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and the Bucs are a pass-happy offense. Miller is an upside option in DFS tournaments this week. He costs the minimum in DraftKings. Obviously, he shouldn’t be considered if Jameis Winston ends up sitting, so keep an eye on his status if considering Miller.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you were lucky enough that you get to take the week off, but if you made the playoffs and have to play this week, it’s hard to not put extra weight into every lineup decision you make. This year’s rookie crop has felt more volatile than most other classes, but that may just be because there are so many of them that have been fantasy contributors this year. We head into week 14 with 7 rookie QBs slated to start (if Daniel Jones is able to play). There are 3 rookie RBs among the top-20 in PPR points, 6 WRs in the top-43, and countless other skill players that have been useful as spot starters when injuries opened the door, and plenty more who are likely to do damage in the fantasy playoffs. Let’s dive in and talk about what to do with your rookies this week…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The Giants have done a nice job of limiting RB production in recent weeks, but I’m betting on Sanders’ usage and the fact the Eagles are favored by 8 and a half points here. Sanders has seen 40 carries and 14 targets in the last 3 weeks and has averaged about 80 scrimmage yards per contest, and the Eagles lost all those games. I expect the Eagles to run a bit more this week if they play from ahead as expected. There is a chance that Jordan Howard returns this week, and if that happens Sanders gets a slight downgrade and would be closer to a borderline option. If Howard sits again, Miles should be a solid RB2.

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Montgomery came through for fantasy players who trusted him enough to start him last week on Thanksgiving, and I like his chances to return value again this week. The Cowboys’ defense has been banged up, missing their starting nose tackle Antwaun Woods and their defensive leader in linebacker Leighton Vander Esch this week. Montgomery continues to see consistent usage with 15+ touches in 6 straight games. His production hasn’t always matched that usage, but Mitch Trubisky has been playing better of late and it is making the whole offense better. Dallas isn’t a defense to fear, ranking 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game. Montgomery should be a useful RB2 this week and is a reasonable $5,100 on DraftKings.

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): You can’t sit a player with Jacobs’ locked-in usage. He’s averaging 88 yards per game on the ground and has only been held under 70 three times in 12 games. I’d be nervous to roll him out in DFS lineups this week though. The Raiders have gone in the tank as a team the last couple weeks, losing by a combined score of 74-12 in their past 2 games. It was a problem for Jacobs against the Jets, but he bounced back with a 100-yard day in a blowout loss against Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 30^th in run defense DVOA. The Titans rank 4^th. If the Raiders continue the trend of getting blown out, this could be a disappointing fantasy day for Jacobs. Oakland is a 2 and a half-point underdog though, so if they keep it competitive Jacobs should see enough work to be just fine.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Murray had been playing at an improved level recently, but week 12 was a bit of a hiccup. He was able to salvage his day with a rushing score, but he gets a rough matchup again this week. The Steelers have been one of the best pass defenses in the league since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick. They’ve held 7 of the 10 QBs they’ve faced since the trade to fewer than 200 passing yards, and Murray has thrown for fewer than 250 in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s been able to keep his fantasy numbers up with touchdowns and rushing yards (he has 9 total TDs in his past 4 games and averaged 42 rushing yards per week in them), but I’d be hesitant to trust him in this matchup as a QB1. The Steelers rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA.

 

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. LAC): I learned my lesson with Minshew early in the season. If he’s starting, he’s in play as a QB2 even in tougher matchups. The Chargers allow the 7^th-fewest QB points per game and just got Derwin James back last week, but they also rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. The Chargers have allowed at least 1 passing TD to every QB they’ve faced except Mitch Trubisky. The reason they rank so highly at limiting QB points is because they are also bad against the run and often are playing from behind. I wouldn’t expect Minshew to approach 300 yards, but he usually finds his way to the middle of the QB2 ranks.

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): I’d lean towards playing Singletary this week, but it’s worth noting that the Ravens allow the 7^th-fewest PPR points to opposing RBs. With that said, the best way to attack the Ravens’ defense is with the ground game. Baltimore just allowed Raheem Mostert to run wild last Sunday, and they’ve struggled to contain the run game in other contests as well. Baltimore ranks just 25^th in run defense DVOA. It’s not an ideal matchup, but it isn’t one to run away from either if Singletary would usually be in your lineup. He’s the undisputed lead back for the Bills. He’s had at least 16 touches in each of the past 3 games and averaged 98 scrimmage yards and 13.5 PPR points per game in that stretch.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Mattison became a hot waiver wire commodity this week after Dalvin Cook left Monday night’s game with a shoulder injury. It sounds as though Dalvin is likely to play this week, but I would expect a lot of Mattison. The Vikings are favored by 2 touchdowns against the hapless Lions who allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game. The biggest surprise from Monday’s game was how involved Mattison was in the passing game. The rookie actually tied for the team lead with 4 catches and turned them into 51 yards. I’d expect Mattison to handle most of the work this week even if Cook plays, and I think it’s likely he out-produces Dalvin. I’d be willing to consider him as a flex even if Cook is able to go, and he’ll likely be a steal at his DraftKings price of just $4,500.

 

RB Benny Snell Jr., PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): The Cardinals have been a better run defense than pass defense this year, but the Steelers are likely to lean on the ground game as usual since Devlin Hodges will be making just his 3^rd pro start. Snell has totaled 37 carries in the last 2 weeks and is likely to continue to see a healthy workload in this one with the Steelers favored by 2 and a half on the road. There is a chance that James Conner returns this week, and if he does that will certainly cut into Snell’s opportunities, but Mike Tomlin openly said that Snell has earned the right to stay in the rotation even when Conner comes back. The Cards allow the 9^th-most running back points per game and rank 16^th in run defense DVOA. Snell offers little as a receiver. He has just 3 catches on the year, so he’s a much better option in non-PPR formats. If Conner is out, I’d consider him a solid flex option outside of full-PPR leagues, but he is a bit dicier in PPR.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 14: @LAR): Metcalf has become an integral part of the Seahawks passing attack as the year has gone on. He’s averaged 7.7 targets, 4.7 catches, and 61.5 yards per game in his last 6 games. The 61% catch rate in those games is a 9% improvement on what he did in the first 6 weeks of the season. He’s developed a troubling fumbling habit with 3 fumbles lost in the past 6 games, but overall the arrow is pointing up for DK. This week’s matchup could include Metcalf squaring off with Jalen Ramsey, but my guess is that he will cover Tyler Lockett a fair amount as well. The Rams are a middling pass defense, allowing the 14^th-fewest points per game to wide receivers. They’ve let other big physical receivers have success against them this year (Mike Evans, Auden Tate, Miles Boykin, and Metcalf himself in the first meeting with the Rams). DK is in play as a WR3 this week.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Slayton gets a plus matchup this week against the Eagles, who allow the 5^th-most WR points per game, but he also is likely to have a new QB under center and a more crowded pass catching group this week. Slayton didn’t record his first catch of the year until week 3, after the team had already made the switch to Daniel Jones. It remains to be seen if he’ll have the same connection with Eli. It’s also possible that Evan Engram and Golden Tate return this week. Slayton has had some productive games with Golden Tate in the lineup, but all 4 games where he saw more than 5 targets came with Evan Engram sidelined. If Engram and Tate both return, Slayton is a volatile WR3/flex option. If one or both sit, he becomes a much safer play.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 14: @NO): Samuel can’t be disregarded as a fantasy option after posting his 4^th straight game with 13+ PPR points last week in a less than ideal matchup in rainy Baltimore. He gets another difficult matchup this week in the Big Easy, but at least the weather won’t be an issue. It’s possible that Samuel draws the shadow coverage of Marshon Lattimore, the Saints’ best cover corner. New Orleans ranks an impressive 9^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game. The bigger concern for Deebo is his target share. With George Kittle back on the field, Samuel was targeted just 6 times in the past 2 weeks. I’d look for him to be a bit more involved this week, but he’s still just an upside WR3 option with all the 49ers’ main receiving weapons healthy.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Brown gets the unenviable opportunity to square off with TreDavious White’s shadow coverage this week. White has been a tough matchup for most of the receivers he’s faced, and the ones who have put up decent fantasy days against him have gotten there on volume rather than big plays. The Ravens are the run-heaviest team in the league, and the Bills rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. That’s where they’re likely to attack Buffalo. I don’t expect big volume for Brown, so you’re hoping he cashes in a big play or 2 if you start him. The Bills have allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game and have given up just 3 pass plays of 40+ yards all year. Brown’s upside keeps him in consideration, but I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger this week.

 

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): It appears that Evan Engram may return this week, but with the Giants playing to improve their draft position I wouldn’t expect them to push Engram back before he’s ready. If Engram doesn’t play, Smith should have plenty of opportunity again. He’s been targeted 14 times in the last 2 weeks and finished as the PPR TE4 and TE10 in those games. The Eagles aren’t an ideal matchup for tight ends, allowing the 9^th-fewest PPR points to the position per game, but they did give up 52 yards to Ben Watson in week 11 and a 5-79-1 line to Mike Gesicki last Sunday. No matter who is at QB, the Giants will keep their tight end involved. Smith will probably be a lower end TE1 this week if Engram is held out again. If you’re thinking about playing Engram, you should have Smith as a fallback option just in case.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 14: @Min.): Blough surprised us all on Turkey Day by throwing 2 first quarter touchdowns in his first NFL start. After tallying 131 yards and those two scores on his first 6 passing attempts, he managed just 149 yards and a pick on his other 32 attempts. I wouldn’t bank on a repeat with your season on the line. The Vikings rank just a middling 14^th in pass defense DVOA, but Blough’s best shot at a decent fantasy day will come from piling up stats in garbage time. The Lions are a 13-point underdog in this game and have an implied total of just 15 points.

 

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Lock’s NFL debut was remarkably similar to David Blough’s. He put up the majority of his production in the 1^st quarter, when he completed 9 of 13 passes for 73 yards and 2 scores. He completed just 9 of 15 for 61 yards and an interception the rest of the game. The game plan for Lock is clearly to dink and dunk as evidenced by his sub-5 yards per attempt average. Unlike Blough, Lock gets a favorable matchup this week. The Texans allow the 6^th-most QB points per game and rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA. Lock could produce a nice day, but the conservative game plan will likely keep him from cashing in on a good matchup. I wouldn’t look at Lock as anything more than a desperation QB2 this week.

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 14: @GB): There’s nothing to be excited about with Haskins this week, and likely for the rest of 2019. Through 4 starts, he’s averaging just 15 completions for 165 yards per game and has failed to throw a TD pass in 3 of them. The floor here is miserable, and we just haven’t seen any sort of ceiling yet, especially facing a Green Bay defense that allows the 9^th-fewest QB points per game.

 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): I mention Jones here just to make sure you’re aware that it’s highly unlikely that he plays this week. If he does get the chance to start, the Eagles aren’t as enticing a matchup as they appeared to be last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick shredded them for 365 yards and 3 scores, but no other QB had reached 250 yards or 3+ touchdowns against the Eagles since Kirk Cousins in week 6. Jones has been a turnover machine this year with 11 interceptions thrown and 9 fumbles lost in his 10 starts. He’d be no more than a low end QB2 if he does end up starting.

 

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 14: @NE): It was nice to finally see Thompson get his opportunity last week with the Williamses banged up, and he made good on it by putting up 44 yards and a TD on 11 carries, but I’m not sold that it was more than just a 1-week flash in the pan. Much of Thompson’s work came with the game already out of hand, and the team signed Spencer Ware this week to add depth to their backfield. Head coach Andy Reid is really comfortable with Ware, and LeSean McCoy still figures to be the lead back if Darrel and Damien are both out. On top of that, the Patriots allow fewer RB points per game than any other team in the league. It all adds up to Thompson being a bit overhyped this week. I’d let someone else take that risk on Darwin.

 

RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 14: @NYJ): After Kalen Ballage got hurt last week, it was the Patrick Laird show for Miami. Laird played 60% of the offensive snaps to Gaskin’s 22%. Laird is also clearly the guy the Dolphins prefer as a receiving back, out-targeting Gaskin 14 to 4 over the past 4 weeks. Gaskin is going to see more work going forward than he was seeing with Kalen Ballage healthy, but Laird is the Dolphin back to consider for fantasy purposes.

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 14: @Chi.): Pollard has teased fantasy upside at times this season but has only turned in 2 useful weeks on the year. I wouldn’t be confident he makes it 3 this Thursday. He just doesn’t play enough to consider in any format this week with so many other options available. It doesn’t help his cause that he was also hit with a questionable tag this week. His status appears genuinely in doubt.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Min.): The Detroit backfield has become the Bo Scarbrough show of late, and that has relegated Johnson to fantasy irrelevance. He continues to split 3^rd down work with JD McKissic, rendering both useless for fantasy purposes. There may be a little more work for the 3^rd down duo this week with the Lions a heavy underdog, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration for either.

 

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Henderson managed to get a handful of carries in last week’s blowout win, but I don’t expect him to see any work in what should be a closer game this week. Henderson totaled just 11 offensive snaps played in the 3 games prior to week 13.

 

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Adam Thielen’s status seems to be uncertain once again this week, and Johnson continues to play a significant role in the offense with him out, but the Vikings have begun to lean even more heavily on 2-TE sets lately than usual. Both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith played 85% of the offensive snaps last Monday while Bisi played just 56%, his lowest share since week 6. He’s even begun to split some of the WR2 snaps with Laquon Treadwell. With Minnesota favored by 2 touchdowns this week, I’d expect similar personnel usage as the Vikings lean heavily on the run game. You could make an argument that Johnson is a sneaky upside DFS option. The Lions allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, Stefon Diggs is likely to be shadowed by Darius Slay, and Johnson’s price tag is just $3,700 on DraftKings. He’s seen similar situations several times in the last few weeks though and hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards in any game this season. The last time the Vikings faced Detroit, Bisi put up 4-40-1 on 8 targets. It was his best fantasy game of the season, but without the TD it wouldn’t have been very useful.

 

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 14: @GB): Haskins has torpedoed the value of any receivers that he throws to with his limited passing production. McLaurin’s 2 catches for 8 yards last week should be all you need to see to know you can’t trust him with your season on the line. Harmon has shown some value as a low upside PPR target with 11 catches for 147 yards over the last 3 weeks, but there are safer options out there for this all-important week.

 

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 14: vs. KC): With the Patriots back at full strength at wide receiver last week, N’Keal Harry saw his snap share drop precipitously. Meyers still played 70% of the snaps and drew 7 targets against Houston, but I think it’s likely New England was easing Mohamed Sanu back from what was originally supposed to be a multi-week injury. I’d expect Sanu to play a bit more this week. If you want to roll the dice on Meyers’ usage continuing this week, keep in mind that the Chiefs rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. The only place I’d be considering Meyers this week would be in DFS tournaments, where he’ll cost just $3,500 on DraftKings.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 14: @NE): Mecole failed to see a single target in a matchup against one of the most burnable secondaries in the league last week. I’d look for the Chiefs to try and get him more involved this week, but I’m not confident he finds a way to fantasy relevance against a Patriots defense that has allowed just 2 offensive touchdowns in 5 games at Gillette Stadium. Hardman will need a touchdown to be fantasy relevant, and he’s not a great bet to find one.

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Arcega-Whiteside did get into the end zone for the first time in his career on Sunday, but he saw his snap count cut in half with the returns of Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. He split WR3 duties with Greg Ward and was targeted just twice. With fantasy seasons on the line, there’s no reason to read into that TD that his usage is going to increase. He’s caught just 5 passes all year and shouldn’t be on your radar this week.

 

WRs Andy Isabella & KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Isabella & Johnson continue to be afterthoughts in the Cardinals’ passing game. Isabella seemed to be breaking out with back-to-back strong games a few weeks ago, but he’s tallied just 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 targets over the last 2 weeks. Johnson didn’t play a single snap in the loss to the Rams. Both should be afterthoughts for you too as you consider fantasy options this week.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Like his teammate Olabisi, Irv’s best fantasy game of the year came in the Vikings’ first meeting with Detroit. He’s trended towards being a full-time player over the last few weeks, seeing his snap share climb from 61% to 74% to 81% to 85% over the last 4 games. He’s been targeted at least 3 times in 6 straight contests, but I can’t recommend him with your season on the line. As long as he’s splitting the role with Rudolph, he’s shaky as anything more than a TE2 for a season long league, and just hasn’t shown the ceiling to warrant using him in a DFS tournament this week with bigger upside options at similar prices out there like OJ Howard, Kaden Smith, and Jonnu Smith.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Knox is seeing the most extensive playing time he’s seen all year lately. He’s played more than 70% of the offensive snaps in 3 straight games after only hitting that mark once prior to week 11, but it isn’t translating to fantasy production and the Ravens have been wiping out tight ends. Baltimore has allowed the 4^th-fewest PPR points to the position per game, and since week 4 they haven’t allowed any tight end to reach 35 yards against them and have given up just 1 touchdown to the position. I wouldn’t hate Knox as an option in a league that requires you to start 2 tight ends, but I would look for better options if considering him as a TE1.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Fant had shown flashes of consistent production with Brandon Allen under center and Jeff Heuerman sidelined, but Heuerman’s return and the change to Drew Lock have made Fant a less than exciting option. Fant did drop a touchdown last week, but it was one of just 3 targets he saw from rookie Drew Lock. Heuerman, meanwhile, drew 5 targets despite playing 13 fewer snaps than Fant. Noah is still the better fantasy option of the two in Denver, but this week’s opponent hasn’t been particularly giving to tight ends. They’re in the top half of the league at limiting tight end points and have given up just 3 tight end scores all year. With other options emerging like Mike Gesicki, Jack Doyle, and Jacob Hollister, I wouldn’t be inclined to take a chance on Fant this week.

 

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): With Hunter Renfrow out last week, Moreau didn’t really see a big bump in playing time. He still played his usual amount, about half the offensive snaps, but Keelan Doss got on the field for 55% of the offensive snaps after not playing since week 7. Neither of them will be useful fantasy options as long as Darren Waller is commanding 30% of the targets like he did last week. If you play Moreau it’s with a hope & a prayer that he finds the end zone. The Titans have given up 6 tight end scores in 12 games this year.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): The Steelers have certainly called a conservative game plan with Hodges under center. He’s averaged just 20.5 passing attempts and 172 passing yards per start in the 2 games he’s gotten the nod, but he’s shown a willingness to take shots down field as evidenced by his 4 completions to James Washington of 30 or more yards in the last 2 weeks. He’s averaging a healthy 8.7 yards per attempt on the year. This week he takes on a Cardinals’ defense that is hemorrhaging QB points at a rate rarely seen. For the season they’ve given up a full 3 points more per game to opposing QBs than any other team in the league, and in the last 5 weeks they’ve given up an insane average of 379 passing yards per game. They’ve also given up 14 passing scores in those games and given up 26.3 fantasy points per game to QBs. Hodges is a little pricier in DFS than I would’ve expected given his limited production so far ($5,900 on DraftKings), but this is a great week to consider him as a lower priced cash-game option and a sneaky QB2 in leagues that let you start 2. Don’t count on him to approach 380 yards, but he should be in line for the best passing day of his young career.

 

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 14: @NYJ): With Kalen Ballage going on IR, the backfield in Miami is left to Laird and Myles Gaskin. As mentioned under Gaskin above, Laird is the guy who saw the bulk of the playing time after Ballage went down. The Jets have been a solid run defense this year, ranking 2^nd in run defense DVOA, but they have allowed an opposing back to tally 4 or more receptions in 10 of their 12 games this year. Laird hasn’t been much more efficient that Ballage was as a runner, but he has topped 40 receiving yards in 2 of the last 3 games. He’s worth consideration in deep PPR leagues if you’re struggling for a running back this week.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 14: @Oak.): The Raiders have been one of the most burnable pass defenses downfield in the league, giving up 56 passes of 20+ yards, 24 of them going for 30+. The Titans have completed 14 passes this season of 30+ yards, and 6 of them have been to AJ Brown. Khalif Raymond and Jonnu Smith each caught 2, and no other Titan caught more than 1. Brown has been getting more consistent usage since the Titans made the switch to Tannehill at QB. He averaged 3.8 targets per game in Mariota’s starts, and 5.2 per game in Tannehill’s. Brown still doesn’t have a safe floor, but this looks like a spot where a smash game is possible. He’s a nice DFS tournament option and an upside flex play in deep leagues.

 

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 14: @TB): Campbell got in a full practice on Wednesday and looks on track to return this weekend in Tampa. TY Hilton said this week that he may be done for the year, and Campbell has been heavily involved whenever he’s been on the field and Hilton hasn’t. In the two games Campbell played with Hilton sidelined, he’s totaled 13 targets and 3 rushing attempts. And turned them into 10 catches and 105 scrimmage yards. The efficiency isn’t ideal, but the Buccaneers allow a full 5 more PPR points to wide receivers per game than any other team in the league. Campbell is practically free in DFS ($3,200 on DraftKings) and could be walking into a big role against easily the worst defense in the league against the position. If you can stomach playing a guy fresh off missing a month with an injury in your fantasy playoffs, Parris could be a really nice option in deep PPR leagues.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): Johnson has been disappointing in recent weeks, coming up short of 30 receiving yards in 4 of his past 5 games. Granted, he did leave a game in the middle of that stretch concussed and bleeding from his ears, but those numbers aren’t going to help fantasy owners. This is as good a spot for him to get back on track as he’s had in a while. The Cardinals have been handing out receiving yards lately like they’re candy on Halloween. The Steelers still aren’t a high volume passing attack, and Johnson is likely to be the 3^rd-best fantasy option in this passing game this week behind James Washington and Vance McDonald, but he costs just $4,300 in DraftKings and has tied Washington for the team lead in targets over the last two weeks. I’m not sure where I would use Johnson this week, but I think this is a nice bounce-back opportunity for him. There is still a chance that JuJu Smith-Schuster could return this week, which would make everything written above irrelevant.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you we’ve made it to the final week of the fantasy regular season. You know where you stand in the playoff picture and know what you need to do to extend your season. It also means the end of the NFL bye weeks, which may make it harder to find use for some of the rookies that were invaluable fill-ins over the last few weeks. Week 13 does boast some favorable matchups for the rookie crop. Miles Sanders, David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs all face off with defenses in the bottom-5 in the NFL at limiting RB points, and every notable rookie tight end other than Noah Fant gets to face off with a bottom-8 tight end defense. Plenty of rookies may dazzle this week.

Regardless of upcoming opponent, let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop this week on Thanksgiving. I’ll dive into the rest of the rookies that play Sunday and Monday later, so stay tuned for that… All of the players for Week 13 are now listed.

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Singletary is getting close to being an every-week fantasy starter. He’s put up 75+ rushing yards in 3 of his past 4 games, and this week faces a Dallas defense that ranks 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. His usage is secure every week, and he has the ability to be a game-changer on the Thanksgiving DFS slate at a reasonable $5,800 price tag. The only rookie running back I’d consider ahead of him this week is Josh Jacobs.

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 13: @Det.): I know playing Monty would feel like playing with fire on Turkey Day, but on paper it’s probably the right move. The Bears are almost certainly going to handle the Lions in the early game Thursday as Detroit starts David Blough at QB. Montgomery’s efficiency has been BRUTAL lately, but he’s got 15+ touches in 5 straight games and the Lions are allowing the 2^nd-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. If you have Montgomery, it probably makes sense to hold your nose and put him in the lineup.

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): Jacobs is coming off his worst fantasy game of the year in a surprising blowout loss to the Jets, but you have to go back to the well again this week. His ceiling won’t be as high as it typically is with the Raiders a 10.5-point underdog, but he’ll have plenty of room to run while the game is competitive. The Chiefs allow the most RB PPR points per game and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Jacobs went for 9.9 PPR points the first time he faced KC (99 rushing yards). I expect he’ll reach double-digits in this one.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Jordan Howard has been ruled out for another week, and Sanders has played more than 80% of the offensive snaps with Howard sidelined the last two games.  Against Miami that should result in a strong fantasy day for him. The Dolphins have given up the 5^th-most RB PPR points per game and rank 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles have been hesitant to give Sanders a huge workload. He hasn’t topped 15 touches in any game this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jay Ajayi getting a bit more work this week if the Eagles are playing from ahead (they’re a 10-point favorite), but if Sanders gets about 15 touches in this matchup, he should be at least a low-end RB2 this week.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): It looks like the Giants will be without Golden Tate, Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison this week. That leaves Sterling Shepard and Slayton as the top two options in the passing game (outside of Saquon of course) against a defense that ranks 19^th in pass defense DVOA. Slayton has been consistently targeted down the field, and no team in the NFL has allowed more 40+ yard pass plays than the Green Bay Packers. There are likely safer options than Slayton this week, but this a great spot for another big game for the Auburn product. He may tangle with Jaire Alexander more than I’d like him to, but I still think Slayton comes up with a nice game.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Murray has been playing his best football of the season the last few weeks, and this week gets a reasonable matchup with the Rams. LA ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA, and the strongest part of their pass defense, Jalen Ramsey, isn’t likely to venture into the slot to cover Larry Fitzgerald and/or Christian Kirk. Murray has really started to use his legs over the past several weeks, topping 30 rushing yards in 5 of his last 7 games, and the Rams are a week removed from letting Lamar Jackson run for 95. With all 32 teams playing, Murray is going to be more of a low-end QB1 this week rather than locked-in starter, but the upside is there for a strong week.

 

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch to Devlin Hodges at QB this week, and the last time Hodges started they leaned heavily on the run game with 16 rushing attempts in 25 first half offensive plays against the Chargers. James Conner is expected to miss another week, and Snell worked as the starter last week, handling 21 of the team’s 38 rushing attempts. Kerrith Whyte had a nice performance last week as well, but he carried just 6 times and played just 7 offensive snaps. Snell is the Steeler back you want. The Browns have limited opposing backs to the 13^th-fewest PPR points per game, but they rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Snell seems like a sure bet for 15+ carries against that defense. I like him as a flex option this week. He is a better option in non-PPR formats though.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): I believe Metcalf is going to fall on the right side of the borderline this week. The Vikings have struggled to contain all kinds of different receivers this year, allowing the 4^th-most PPR points per game to the position. They’ve given up a decent number of splash plays, allowing the 11^th-most 20+ yard pass plays on the year. Tyler Lockett is still a little banged up, and Metcalf has averaged 7.8 targets per game over the last 5 contests. There is still some degree of boom-or-bust to Metcalf’s game, but I like him to finish as a WR3 or better this week.

 

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): McLaurin is more of a floor play than ceiling as long as Haskins is the QB, but the matchup this week puts him in play. The Panthers overall pass defense has been decent, ranking 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up the 5^th-most WR points per game. McLaurin has been the target on 21.3% of Haskins’ pass attempts this season and has averaged 7.8 yards per target. He’s averaged about a 4-70 line the past two weeks, and I think he’ll be in that ballpark again in this plus matchup. He’s a reasonably safe WR3/4 floor play with an outside chance at a ceiling week.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 13: @Ind.): Brown has been the epitome of boom-or-bust this season. He’s topped 80 receiving yards in 4 contests and been held under 30 yards in 6 of them. The Titans’ offense as a whole has been more productive in the passing game since changing QBs. They’re averaging 32 more passing yards and 0.6 more passing TDs per game in Tannehill’s starts compared to Mariota’s (excluding the game Mariota was benched during). Brown leads the team in targets from Tannehill, and in yards per target from him (min. 6 targets). The Colts are an average pass defense. Brown is worth a roll of the dice if you’re an underdog in a must-win matchup.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Fant put up a pretty miserable fantasy day in week 12 with the whole Broncos’ offense doing next to nothing. He was targeted 5 times but totaled just 3 catches for 14 yards. It’s worth noting that the return of Jeff Heuerman from injury did ding his snap share a little bit. Heuerman had been out all 3 games since the Manny Sanders trade prior to week 12, and Fant played 82, 86, and 86 percent of the offensive snaps in those games. That number was down to 74% in week 12 with Heuerman back on the field. Fant is still the tight end featured in the passing game, but the Chargers allow the 10^th-fewest PPR points to the position. His usage keeps him in the conversation of being a top-12 tight end option this week but he’ll be a volatile option like most borderline tight ends. The likelihood that Drew Lock starts this week gives Fant even more uncertainty.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Knox played above 70% of the offensive snaps in consecutive weeks for the first time all year in weeks 11 & 12. If that continues the targets are going to follow. The Cowboys allow the 8^th-most PPR points per game to tight ends, and the Bills are a touchdown underdog and will likely have to throw it more than they like to. If there was ever a week to take a leap of faith on Knox, this is probably it.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Jones has been productive of late, putting up 11 TDs and 1 pick over the last 4 games while adding 28.5 rushing yards per game in that span, but turnovers and sacks have continued to be problems for him. He’s taken 23 sacks and lost 7 fumbles in his past 5 games. The Packers have just a middling pass rush, but so do the Jets and Cardinals who got to Jones a combined 14 times. Green Bay allows just the 10^th-fewest QB points per game and Jones will be without Golden Tate and Evan Engram. Engram has been out several weeks, but Tate has averaged 8 targets per game since returning from suspension. Jones is only a low-end QB2 option this week.

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Haskins failed to make good on his opportunity last week against one of the worst QB defenses in the league, so there’s no reason to trust him against a much tougher opponent this week. The Panthers allow the 11^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. In 3 starts this year, Haskins has averaged 171 passing yards per game and totaled 2 touchdowns and 3 turnovers. There just isn’t a ceiling to chase here right now.

 

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch from Mason Rudolph to Devlin “Duck” Hodges, but he’s not likely to be a valuable fantasy starter this week. Pittsburgh leaned heavily on the run game in Hodges’ first start, and I’d expect them to do the same here. Pittsburgh ran the ball on 16 of their first 25 offensive plays in Hodges’ first start. Cleveland ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges’ best bet for fantasy production would be on the ground. He ran for nearly 30 yards in his first start, and Cleveland has allowed the 4^th-most QB rushing yards per game and coughed up 4 rushing scores to the position. I’d still look elsewhere this week, even in 2QB formats.

 

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Signs are pointing to Drew Lock making his first start of the year Sunday. He’s been taking the majority of the 1^st string reps in practice, but I’d rather see what he can do before pulling the trigger on him in any lineups. The Broncos want to run first and foremost, and the Chargers rank 27^th in run defense DVOA. The Broncos likely want to limit Lock to fewer than 30 attempts if possible. I’d steer clear until we see how Lock looks in real game action.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): The Vikings have played 3 consecutive close games that were decided by 4 points or less, and Mattison has averaged just 8 offensive snaps per game in those contests. The Vikings are a field goal underdog this week and Seattle allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. Mattison probably gets a handful of carries, but not enough to trust in lineups.

 

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Laird did see a jump in playing time last week as expected, but he was still limited to just 37% of the offensive snaps. He played one snap less than Kalen Ballage, and Gaskin played just enough to keep Laird’s usage from being exciting. With all 32 teams playing this week, you shouldn’t be scrounging the wire for a guy who may get a handful of targets on one of the worst offenses in the league. The Eagles allow the 9^th-fewest PPR points per game to running backs.

 

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 13: @SF): I only mention Hill at all because he got 8 carries on Monday night. There’s nothing to read into his usage. Baltimore won by 39 points, so he got some late run. It’s HIGHLY unlikely that scenario repeats itself in San Francisco.

 

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. TB): In two games since posting a 5-65 receiving line against Houston in week 9 Armstead has just 3 touches for 19 yards. The Bucs rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-fewest RB PPR points per game. Even if Ryquell does get a handful of touches this week he’s unlikely to do much with them.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Brown found the end zone twice last week, and probably is still in consideration for your lineup this week if you have him, but on paper this looks like a down week for Hollywood. The 49ers rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7^th-fewest WR PPR points per game. This week’s matchup is going to be a rainy one in Baltimore, and if you play Brown it’s with the hope he hits a couple big plays. San Francisco has allowed just 18 pass plays of 20+ yards in 11 games. No other team in the league has allowed fewer than 23. I get it that Brown may be your best option this week, but I want to make it clear how dicey he is against the 49ers.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Samuel has been breaking out over the past few weeks, but the return of George Kittle last Sunday resulted in Samuel being targeted just twice. He did turn those targets into 50 yards and a TD, but similar usage this week is unlikely to have a similar return. The Ravens secondary has been fantastic since trading for Marcus Peters. They’ve given up just 2 WR scores in their past 6 games, and there is a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore during the game. I know there will be temptation to play Samuel after he put up 19.2, 21.4, and 13 PPR points in his last 3 games, but I think you’ll be better served to look elsewhere this week.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Johnson may very well lead the Steelers in targets this week, but I’d rather not rely on him if you need a win this week. The Steelers are likely to lean on the run game, and the Browns allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. Johnson has just 5 catches for 46 yards in the past 2 games. Meanwhile James Washington has put up 6-147-1 including a 79-yard TD catch from Devlin Hodges. Washington seems like the higher upside play this week. Johnson has some upside this week, but it’s very possible the Steelers total less than 200 passing yards which caps his ceiling.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Oak.): Tyreek Hill is fully expected to play this week after exiting KC’s last game with a hamstring issue just 7 snaps in. Mecole played 52 snaps in that game but had played just 38 snaps total in the 3 games prior, totaling 3-118-2 on 3 targets and adding a rush for 7 yards in those games. That’s an incredible level of production given the limited playing time, but Hardman remains just a big play dart throw as long as Hill is in the lineup. The Raiders have been burnable, giving up more 20+ yard pass plays than any other team in the league, but I’d still try for a safer option this week.

 

WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Harry made a spectacular TD catch last week and played more than 80% of the offensive snaps, but the return of Phillip Dorsett this week should push him back to the bench. He’ll play some, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration even in this decent matchup. I’d look to Jakobi Meyers if you’re looking for a rookie Patriot pass catcher this week.

 

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Harmon has finally started to make an impact on the field the last couple weeks with Paul Richardson battling an injury. Richardson returned last week but played just 15 snaps to Harmon’s 38. Harmon has been targeted 6 times in each of the last 2 contests, but he’s been mostly utilized in the short & intermediate part of the field. His sneaky PPR upside the last two weeks was mostly due to so many receivers being on byes. With all 32 teams playing and Richardson another week removed from injury there just isn’t enough upside to try Harmon this week.

 

WRs Andy Isabella & KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR):  Johnson is an obvious sit with just 4 catches for 36 yards on 9 targets in the past 3 weeks, but I’d be opposed to starting Isabella too. He’s getting some deep targets on his limited snaps, but he may have to match up with Jalen Ramsey a bit in this one. He’s still in play as a cheap DFS tournament dart throw, but I’d probably look elsewhere this week. The Rams have allowed the 2^nd-fewest pass plays of 20+ yards in the league and have given up just 4 passes of 40+ on the season.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Johnson was already producing in a limited capacity before the Lions brought in Bo Scarbrough, but Ty’s opportunity should be limited even further going forward. Bo has become the clear leader of the Lions RB committee, getting almost all of the early down work. Johnson is left fighting with JD McKissic for leftovers. Johnson would be lucky to top 35% of the offensive snaps this week against a Bears’ defense allowing the 14^th-most RB points per game, and even if he does reach that number, it’s highly unlikely he reaches a usable point total.

 

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Hockenson hasn’t produced much fantasy goodness in quite some time. He hasn’t topped 10 PPR points since week 4, and he’s finished under 3.5 PPR points in 3 of his last 5 games. He gets a favorable matchup this week against a Bears’ team that has allowed the 7^th-most points to the position per game, but in week 12 he combined his lack of production with a drop in playing time. It was the first time all year he played fewer than 50% of the Lions’ offensive snaps, giving way to Logan Thomas at times. He was playing through an injury, which may explain the dip in snaps, but he will still be banged up on the short week this week. His limited playing time and limited production makes him almost impossible to trust this week.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Phillip Dorsett is set to return this week, but it sounds like Mohamed Sanu could be out again. Sanu has been playing primarily in the slot, so it’s Meyers who is likely to play in his stead. Houston has struggled to defend the slot, allowing massive games to Michael Thomas (10-123) and Keenan Allen (13-183-2) who spend a decent amount of time in the slot, and gave up respectable games to less heralded slot receivers Jarius Wright (5-59), Mohamed Sanu (5-42-1) and Hunter Renfrow (4-88-1). At just $3,300 on DraftKings, Meyers has a chance to easily outproduce his price tag. The Texans rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA.

 

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): It seems that Adam Thielen may return Monday night, and if he does, I don’t expect Johnson to do much. He hasn’t topped 4 targets in any game that Thielen played from start to finish. Unfortunately, we may not know if Thielen is playing until Monday night. If you’re considering Thielen this week, it makes some sense to scoop Johnson off the waiver wire to be safe. The Vikes are a 3-point underdog on Monday night, so they’ll likely be throwing more than 30 times and you could make a case for Bisi as a TD dart throw even if Thielen returns. If Thielen does sit, Johnson becomes more of a WR4 type, but one with enough upside to not kill you this week and be a potential steal in DFS tournaments at just $3,800 in DraftKings. The Seahawks aren’t a WR defense to target, but they aren’t one to avoid either allowing the 14^th-most PPR points per game to the position.

 

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): Campbell’s status is still up in the air for Sunday, but if he plays, he has a chance at a surprising day. TY Hilton has already been ruled out, and the last time Campbell played with Hilton sidelined he was targeted 8 times. Eric Ebron also played in that game, and he’s since gone to injured reserve. The Titans rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA and Campbell is basically free in DFS ($3,200 on DraftKings).

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): It looks like there is a real chance that Alshon Jeffery returns this week, but if he doesn’t there is some solid upside for Arcega-Whiteside. The Dolphins are the worst team in the league in pass defense DVOA and they allow the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to the position. JJ was targeted 5 times and played 71% of the snaps in week 12 as the number 2 receiver to Jordan Matthews, and Matthews was cut this week. Nelson Agholor is also on the mend and could be back. If both he and Jeffery return, you shouldn’t consider JJ, but if Alshon or both sit, JJ becomes an upside option for DFS tournaments and deep leagues.

 

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Smith filled in as the Giants’ full-time tight end in week 12 with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison both sidelined. If both are out again, Smith would make a really interesting spot play this week. The Packers have given up a 60-yard receiving day to a tight end in 5 straight games and coughed up 5 scores to the position in those games. I wouldn’t expect a monster game out of Smith after he averaged just 3.4 yards per catch last week, but he should have a great chance at 5+ catches if both Ellison and Engram sit again. He could be a steal in DFS tournaments at just $2,900 on DraftKings.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): There is a chance the Vikings play without Adam Thielen again on Monday, and the Seahawks allow the 4^th-most TE points per game. Seattle has surrendered big fantasy days to 2^nd tier and lower tight ends CJ Uzomah (4-66), Gerald Everett (7-136), and Ricky Seals-Jones (3-47-1). It may be tough to pull the trigger on Smith given that we won’t know Thielen’s status until Monday, but he could be a great option for Monday showdown DFS slates ($3,200 on DraftKings), and could be a decent fallback option if you have Thielen set to play in a flex spot.

 

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): With the injury to Hunter Renfrow, look for the Raiders’ plans moving forward to include more 2-tight end sets. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most TE points per game and Moreau costs the minimum on DraftKings. While Darren Waller is the most likely Raider to take advantage of the matchup, Moreau has had a knack for getting in the end zone. He’s scored every other game for the past 8 weeks, and while that’s hardly predictive this would be the week he’d be due for a score if the pattern holds.

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): The Cowboys have started to get Pollard at least slightly more involved of late, but he still has averaged just 3 touches per game in the Cowboys’ 5 losses. Luckily for him the ‘Boys are favored by a touchdown on Thursday. I wouldn’t roll Pollard out there in season long leagues. There is a very real chance that the Cowboys streak of losing to every winning team they play continues, but if you think the Vegas line is about right Pollard has a chance to be a dangerous cheap option for Thanksgiving day DFS tournaments. The Bills rank 26^th in run defense DVOA.

 

That’s all I’ve got for the Thanksgiving slate. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. Keep in mind there are 3 games on Thursday with the first starting at 11:30 AM CT, so make sure your lineups are set in time. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Have a safe and happy holiday, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.