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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 clearly demonstrated just how fickle the fortunes of fantasy rookies can be. Teddy Bridgewater and Sammy Watkins hit huge speed bumps, Bishop Sankey continued to struggle to breakout, Storm Johnson ran like every other Jacksonville running back, and Eric Ebron continued to under-perform with Calvin Johnson on the shelf. It wasn't all bad for the rooks though. Derek Carr had his biggest game of the season, Jeremy Hill, Isaiah Crowell and Jarvis Landry each found the end zone, Jace Amaro pulled in double-digit receptions and a score as well, Branden Oliver had another big game, and Jerick McKinnon finally looks like the starter in Minnesota. There should be plenty more rookie fun in store this week, so let’s dive in and talk about what to expect in week 7.
Rookies to start:
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 7: vs. KC): His match-up isn't quite as sweet this week, but the Chargers have been committed to the run game and Oliver has been far more effective than Donald Brown. He should be a very safe RB2 option this week, and maybe even a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues. Start him
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 7: @Dal.): If the Giants want to beat Dallas, they’ll have to get the run game going, and Rashad Jennings is out again this week. Williams is a punishing runner who will surprise Dallas with his physicality. I like his chances of being a decent RB2 this week and an excellent flex option. If he doesn't at least come close to 20 touches, I’d be very surprised.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 7: @GB): Kelvin has earned must-start status every week. Green Bay’s offense should keep Carolina throwing, and Benjamin should be trotted out there as a very safe WR2 in fantasy again this week.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 7: @Det.): The Saints might be without Jimmy Graham this week, and the Lions have a ferocious pass rush that dropped Teddy Bridgewater 8 times last week. Look for the Saints to get Cooks involved early in the short passing game to counter Detroit’s pressure. He might even see a couple rushing attempts. He’s a solid WR2 option in PPR leagues and WR3 in standard ones.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): Don’t be scared away by last week’s rough game from Sammy. He was matched up against Darrelle Revis all day. He won’t face anyone that imposing against the Vikings, and he saw at least 8 targets in each of the previous 4 games before last week. I’d expect close to double-digit targets again, and I like his chances to turn in a strong fantasy day. Orton certainly makes him a better fantasy play than E.J. ever did.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Carr finally escapes the “Rookies to Sit” category. With Tony Sparano in charge as the interim head coach, the playbook was opened up and Carr was unleashed a bit against SD. The Arizona matchup is an interesting one. The Cards bring pressure a high percentage of the time and trust their corners to win one-on-one matchups. Carr struggled against pressure in college, but he’s responded well to it at this level. There will be a chance for Carr to have a nice day with crafty James Jones and physical freak Andre Holmes finding ways to get open. I like Carr as a low-end QB2 with upside for more.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Like Carr, Bortles is fodder for 2 QB leagues. I like Carr better this week. Bortles has the better match-up, and he’s built a great rapport with Cecil Shorts and Allen Robinson, but the Jags’ lack of a running game will keep Bortles no more than a low-end QB2.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 7: @Was.): Sankey has been absolutely maddening to anyone who owns him. Coach Ken Whisenhunt claims that “nerves” factored into Sankey’s slow start last week against Jacksonville, but Whiz still sprinkled in too much Dexter McCluster and Leon Washington for Sankey’s owners to feel good starting him against the #5 defense vs. fantasy RBs. There’s plenty of upside for Bishop, but plenty of risk too.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Crowell was very impressive as a runner last week against Pittsburgh, putting up 77 yards and a TD on just 11 carries. He would be breathing down Ben Tate’s neck for the starting gig right now if not for 2 fumbles, but he’s still going to get his work and could torch the Jaguars’ terrible defense. He could end up with just 20-30 yards, or he could blow up. The talent is real.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 7: @Ind.): The Colts allow the 7th most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the Bengals should continue to lean on their running backs with A.J. Green likely out another week. There is a risk of Cincy falling behind in this one and having to throw more than they’d like, but Hill should see 10-15 touches, which normally makes him a decent bet for a TD.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 7: @Buf.): McKinnon finally has leaped over Matt Asiata on the depth chart, out-touching the plodding Asiata 18-3 against Detroit. This week, he faces off against the best defense in the league against opposing RBs. The volume should be there for him to be an OK flex option though. The Vikes should look to run as much as possible to keep Bridgewater upright after he was sacked 8 times last week.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): Adams role continued to increase last week. He remains a boom or bust WR3 option, but he’s good a decent chance to boom this week against the lackluster Panthers’ secondary. Carolina has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 7: @Dal.): The stats would say that this isn't a good match-up for Beckham, but we can just throw out the stats when the Cowboys and Giants get together. I feel like this game will be a bit tougher for the Cowboys, and I actually really like Beckham as a decent flex option this week.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): I like Robinson this week in PPR leagues. He’s been surprisingly steady since week 2, averaging 5.8 catches and 62.2 yards per game over his past 5 with at least 4 catches and 6 targets in each game. I like his chances to at least get to his averages in a game that will likely have the Jaguars throwing.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Landry is seemingly gaining more and more trust from Ryan Tannehill each week, and he found the end zone for the first time last week. His efficiency has been impressive, with 18 catches on 25 targets in the past 4 games. This game has shootout potential, so Landry could approach the 6-75-1 line he registered last week and should be a reasonable WR3 option in PPR leagues.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Despite his breakout last week, Amaro is more of a 2TE league option. The Patriots do a good job of taking away a team’s best options. I still think Geno peppers him with targets again, making him a guy you could roll the dice on in 12-team PPR leagues, but he’s a risky play this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 7: @Buf.): I believe in Teddy’s talent, but this matchup is daunting. The Vikings haven’t thrown a passing TD in the past 4 weeks and the Bills haven’t allowed a rushing TD all season. I’d like to believe that Bridgewater will find a way to throw his first career TD pass this week, but I can’t say with certainty he will. He’s coming off a 3 interception, 8 sack game against Detroit and gets another good pass rush this week.
RB Storm Johnson, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Storm may very well have a decent game with a good matchup against the Browns, but I’m giving up on the Jags’ running game until they show me more. The problem is the offensive line, and I don’t trust anyone running behind it. I’d sit Storm.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 7: @Jax.): He’s now 3rd in the pecking order in the Browns’ backfield and Crowell is separating himself. He needs an injury ahead of him to even be rostered in redraft leagues right now. He just won’t get enough work to play.
RB Darrin Reaves, CAR (Wk. 7: @GB): Even with the other Panthers’ runners out, Reaves hasn't been much of a factor. The Panthers have found something with Cam running the ball again, and Jonathan Stewart might be back this week. I wouldn't consider Reaves this week.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 7: @Den.): The way to beat Denver is to pound the ball on the ground and keep it away from Peyton Manning, but Gore will continue to see the lion’s share of the work. The Broncos don’t often play from behind, so it’s hard to bank on the game flow getting Hyde involved. Keep him on the pine this week.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. SF): Hillman did plenty last week to earn the top spot in the Denver backfield while Montee Ball is out and possibly beyond. Against a plus defense like San Francisco’s, there just won’t be enough fantasy points to go around for Juwan Thompson.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 7: vs. Sea.): Mason had a couple of nice plays in his NFL debut on Monday night, but you know better than to play a running back who faces the Seahawks when they’re coming off a loss. The Seahawks will be playing focused and angry football, and Mason isn’t even the starter.
WRs Allen Hurns & Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Hurns’s targets are falling off with Cecil Shorts back, and Lee is still working to crack into the rotation at wide receiver. Both guys should be out of your fantasy lineup this week.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 7: vs. NO): Ebron’s comparison coming into the draft was Jimmy Graham. Who knows better how to defend that type of player than the Saints? They've allowed a league-low 4 points per game to opposing tight ends, and Ebron has already been under-performing with Calvin out. Don’t start Ebron this week.
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 7: @Was.): Jake Locker’s status is in doubt yet again this week, and “Checkdown” Charlie Whitehurst hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in his stead. If Mettenberger gets the start, he’s a sneaky good QB2 option going against the worst QB defense in the league. Keep an eye on the situation if you have an issue at QB2.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Zo has become a forgotten man in Baltimore as Bernard Pierce has returned to the mix, but I think he gets more involved this week and is a sneaky flex play against the awful Falcons’ defense. Forsett is still the top option, but I certainly like Taliaferro over Pierce this week. The Falcons allow 27.5 RB fantasy points per game.
RB James White, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): The Jets run defense has had some issues the past two weeks after being dominant prior to that, and the Pats’ backfield is in flux with Stevan Ridley done for the year. Brandon Bolden is the favorite to take over Ridley’s role, but White and preseason standout Jonas Gray could factor in as well. White was active for the first time last week, and was always a good pass blocker at Wisconsin, which is important at this level. It’s hard to trust White this week, but he’s a nice stash option in deeper leagues.
RB Damian Williams, MIA (Wk. 7: @Chi.): It’s still not clear who the number 2 runner is in Miami with Knowshon done for the year. Williams beat out Daniel Thomas for a roster spot in the preseason, but Thomas ran ahead of him in week 4 against Oakland. Williams could be worth a stash in deep leagues if he runs ahead of Thomas this week.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 7: @Oak.): Brown has been forgotten by most since his 2 TD game against the 49ers, but with Carson Palmer back, Brown should be a sneaky flex play against the Raiders in deeper leagues. Palmer re-established Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald last week, taking the focus off Brown again (even he had 4 catches for 43 in week 6), and I like his chances of finding the end zone this week. There’s a lot of bust risk, but Brown has shown himself to be a play-maker.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you find fantasy victory in week 7. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report. Another exciting week of NFL action is in the books, and it was comeback city. The Bills, Browns, Giants and Panthers all put up comeback victories and the Rams and Bucs nearly did the same. Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham Jr. were all big parts of their teams’ wins, and several other rookies made big contributions in week 5 as well. Will week 6 be more of the same?
Let’s talk about what to expect this weekend…
Rookies to Start:
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 6: @Oak.): Oliver exploded on to the scene last week with over 160 total yards and a TD against the number one run defense in the league. The Raiders are not close to number one. In fact, they allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Oliver is a top-15 RB play this week and a must-start.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 6: @Phi.): The Giants have been committed to the run game since they started turning their season around, and with Rashad Jennings likely out this week, Williams will assume the lead back role in a matchup against a less than daunting Eagles’ defense. The BC product should be a low level RB2 this week. I’d prefer Oliver to Williams this week, but both have solid upside.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Kelvin is going to be heavily involved as usual, and is pretty much a must-start every week because of his role in the offense. With that said, the Bengals’ defense is tough and should be eager to wash away the memory of last week’s game against New England. Kelvin is still a high ceiling option, but he’s got a lower floor this week than usual.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 6: @Ten.): The Titans aren’t as good a matchup as you’d think for Bortles, but it’s a better matchup than Pittsburgh, especially if the Jags’ run game is more effective this week. I see Bortles as a mid-range QB2 in 12 team leagues.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): The Bengals’ entire team should rebound this week, and they should lean even more heavily on the run game than usual this week with A.J. Green dealing with a toe injury. The Panthers allow the 6th most points to opposing RBs at just over 20 per game, so there’s a chance for both Gio and Hill to be good this week. Hill still likely needs a TD to provide good value, but he’s a pretty decent flex option this week.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): I’m getting the impression that Ken Whisenhunt must hate Bishop Sankey. After vowing to use Bishop more this week, he still finished with just 8 carries in a game the Titans led until the final minutes. With the miserable Jags up next, Sankey has a great shot to finally break out, or he could see less than 10 touches again. Play him at your own risk.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 6: @TB): Lorenzo has a plus matchup this week with Tampa, but the Ravens have been sticking to the committee approach, and Forsett remains the top option due to his prowess in the passing game. There is still a decent role for Taliaferro, and head coach John Harbaugh said this week he wants to give Taliaferro more carries, but until he takes more of a lead role he’s just a flex option.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): If Evans plays, the matchup isn’t as tough as you might think. The Ravens have allowed over 1,000 receiving yards to opposing WRs through 5 games. Vincent Jackson is limited in practice this week with an injury of his own. Evans is capable of 80+ yards if he suits up. Glennon has given this passing offense new life.
WRs Allen Robinson & Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee might both be out this week. Robinson remains a higher floor option than Hurns and is likely to haul in at least 5 catches, but Hurns has more upside. Both players have a shot at a decent week, and are WR3/flex options.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 6: @Phi.): The Eagles allow the most WR points in the league, and Beckham should play more snaps this week after his strong outing a week ago. Despite that, Rueben Randle is seeing 10 targets a game and Larry Donnell should be more involved this week after getting shut down against Atlanta. There’s still a ton of upside, but there’s certainly risk. I think he could steal some of Victor Cruz’s work if Cruz keeps dropping passes.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 6: @Min.): Megatron will either be limited again or out altogether this week, and the Lions will need Ebron to step up in passing game. He’s still a matchup nightmare, and the tight ends gave the Vikes fits last season. I think Ebron is a good bet for a TD and could be worth a streaming play.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): The Lions allow the fewest points to opposing QBs in the league. Teddy’s been good so far, but with Megatron, Joique and Reggie Bush all battling injuries, this likely won’t be a blowout and won’t have much garbage time passing for Minny. I expect a bump in the road this week for Teddy. He’s a really low end QB2 at best.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 6: vs. SD): Don’t even think about playing Carr. The Raiders’ offense has been a total dumpster fire so far, and with Tony Sparano now in charge they are likely to run the ball more often, further limiting Carr’s upside.
RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrence West, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. Pit.): With Ben Tate back from injury, West and Crowell are limited to change of pace work, and there isn’t enough to go around to make either of them a trustworthy flex play. I think Crowell is a guy to hold on to in case of another Tate injury, but for now you have to keep him benched.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): Arian Foster is back in business for now, putting up his best game of the season in week 5 against Dallas. Until he gets hurt again, Blue won’t see enough work to be a viable flex option.
RB Darrin Reaves, CAR (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Reaves seems like the best bet to play this week out of he, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but this matchup is imposing. I wouldn’t have faith in a big game out of Reaves. The Panthers just haven’t committed to the run so far.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): The Lions run D has been stout all year, allowing less than 3 yards a carry, and McKinnon is still playing second fiddle to Matt Asiata. He’s too much of a risk to trust this week.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 6: @StL.): Frank Gore’s resurgence over the past couple weeks is really hampering Hyde’s upside. His role should increase later in the season when the team tries to keep Gore fresh headed into the postseason. For now, his change of pace role makes him too much of a risk to trust. Believe it or not, the Rams are in the top 10 in the league at limiting opposing RB points.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. NE): Okay, benching Watkins after his 2nd best yardage game of the season probably sounds crazy. I don’t think it is. While it’s true that Orton at QB helps Sammy’s numbers, he draws Darrelle Revis this week, and the Pats defense allows the 3rd fewest WR points in the NFL. There’s very serious bust potential for Watkins this week.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. NYG): It might bite you in the ass to sit Matthews this week if he finds the end zone, but the Eagles continue to target Riley Cooper more than they should. Add in the solid defense the G-Men have been playing against the pass, and I just don’t want to rely on Matthews in anything but the deepest PPR leagues.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Was.): The Redskins’ defense isn’t particularly good, but since Palmer went down, Brown hasn’t been much of a factor. He shouldn’t be a consideration unless Palmer is back under center, and even then only as a roll of the dice flex option.
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): With Mike Evans possibly back this week, ASJ loses a lot of the appeal he had last week. He only caught one pass for 11 yards last week. The Ravens allow less than 5 points a game to tight ends. I doubt ASJ gets to 5 this week.
Rookies on Bye: WR Brandin Cooks, NO
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Jake Locker’s injury situation bears watching this week. There has been talk in the media this week that the Titans may turn to Mettenberger soon, and it could even be this week if Locker isn’t able to play. Mett led the NFL in passing yards in the preseason, and would face a soft Jaguars’ defense in his first start. He’d be at least a low end QB2 if he gets the nod.
RB Storm Johnson, JAX (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Johnson was impressive in his first NFL action, rattling off a Jags’ season best 20-yard run against Pittsburgh. Head coach Gus Bradley said this week that the running back position will be an open competition going forward, and they’d ideally like a 2-man rotation. Bradley openly praised Johnson this week, and he could have first crack at being part of the backfield tandem. He’s a roll of the dice flex play in deeper leagues that could pay off big this week. He should be comfortable playing with his college QB Blake Bortles.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 6: @NYJ): Thompson shouldn’t be anywhere near your lineup this week against the Jets’ stout run D, but with Montee Ball out for multiple weeks the backfield workload bears watching. CJ Anderson was inactive last week and Ronnie Hillman is still just a change of pace guy. Anderson is expected to get the bulk of the carries, but keep an eye on the situation.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 6: @Mia.): I have a gut feeling that this is the week Davante finds the end zone. He’s playing a ton of snaps as the WR3 in Green Bay, and it’s only a matter of time before he finds a big game. I like his chances this week with Brent Grimes covering either Jordy or Randall Cobb.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): The Jets are desperately in need of playmakers right now, and Amaro has the talent to be just that. It’s only a matter of time before they fully unleash him. The Jets should be playing from behind all day this week, so they should be throwing a bunch. I like Amaro in 2-TE leagues.
That’s it for this week. Hopefully you find something useful in there for your fantasy teams and are able to pick up a W in week 6. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was a quiet one for several of the top rookies (byes were a factor in that), but there were some new rookie faces making waves this past weekend. Teddy Bridgewater, Bishop Sankey, Andre Williams, Mike Evans and Eric Ebron each made their first dalliance into an NFL end zone. Jerick McKinnon also burst onto the scene with over 150 yards. These are just the first of many standout performances to come from most of these guys. Let’s take a look at which rookies might standout in week 5…
Rookies to Start:
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Sankey continued to perform with garbage time snaps last week, and coach Whisenhunt said this week he’ll see more carries, and he’ll see them earlier in the game. The Browns allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Sankey should be a decent RB2 this week. Double-digit points are likely.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): The Panthers’ pass attack runs through Kelvin. The Bears allow over 24 points per game to opposing WRs, and I’d think Kelvin is a good bet for half that number. The only other relevant Panther WR is Cotchery. Feel safe firing up Benjamin as a WR2/3.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 5: vs. TB): Cooks is always going to be a better PPR play than standard league, but even in a down game last week he pulled in 5 receptions and was on the field for 82% of the Saints’ snaps. He’s crushing Marques Colston in targets, and the Bucs allow the most fantasy points to opposing WRs at 30.8. Cooks should be a solid WR3 even in standard leagues this week, and potential WR2 in PPR.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): The potential is there for a really nice game out of Bortles. Pittsburgh has had an explosive offense so far, and a leaky defense. They’ve allowed a 7:1 TD-INT ratio so far and just got done letting Mike Glennon have a strong game against them in his first start of the year. Bortles should continue to get better each week as he gains more experience. I’d view Bortles as a mid-to-high QB2 this week. I’d trust him more than Tom Brady vs. Cincy.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 5: @NE): Hill is always a threat to score a TD, but the matchup this week may favor his teammate Gio Bernard. New England has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing RBs, but they’ve allowed them just 2 rushing TDs as opposed to 4 receiving scores. Gio is a bigger part of the passing game than Hill. I’d still expect 8-10 carries for Hill, more if the Pats play like they did last Monday, but Hill is a hope-for-a-TD flex play this week.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 5: @Ten.): With Ben Tate coming back from injury, it makes Crowell a dicey flex option. The Titans do allow 20 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, but it’ll likely take a TD for Crowell to be productive. I like his chances of getting that TD, though.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Zo-Bot found the end zone again in week 4, but he lost out on starter’s carries to Justin Forsett. Forsett is undersized and just a change-of-pace back, but until we start to see Taliaferro doing work early and often, it’ll be hard to trust him. The Colts give up a good amount of running back points (19.3/game), but a lot of it has been in the passing game. View Taliaferro as a low floor flex option.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 5: @GB): With Teddy likely to sit tonight, the Vikings will have to rely heavily on the ground game. That’s good news for McKinnon, but it’s better news for Matt Asiata. Asiata is still running as the lead back, and Green Bay will likely play from ahead. Asiata is the better back in the passing game despite his obviously inferior talent. McKinnon will see some work, and he could be a fun roll of the dice since the Packers do allow the 4th most RB fantasy points. He’s a high-risk, high-reward flex option.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. @Det.): Watkins definitely has the role to be a star, and Kyle Orton taking over at QB should actually help Watkins. He’s been the focal point of the offense and Orton is a more accurate passer than Manuel. With that said, the Lions’ defense has been fantastic. I’d expect 4-5 catches and 50-60 yards from Watkins, with the possibility for a little more.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): The Steelers defense allows plenty of points to opposing WRs, and Robinson has the most talent amongst the Jacksonville WRs. His production has been a little inconsistent like most rookie WRs, but he’s a promising WR3 option this week. I’d look for 60+ yards.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Hurns’s outlook is a little less promising than Robinson’s. He’s reliant on the deep ball, and he might not get one in this game. His upside is greater than Robinson’s, but so is his risk. He’s just as likely (maybe more) to put up 2 or fewer points as he is to hit double-digits.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Adams seems to have moved ahead of Jarrett Boykin, but he’s yet to produce. He did have a long TD called back on a penalty against Chicago, and the Packers play more 3-WR sets than any team in the league. His breakout game is coming eventually. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 5: @GB): This one isn’t rocket science. Teddy’s unlikely to play this week, so he shouldn’t be in your lineup. Even if he plays, he’s a low-end QB2 at best. The Packers are just 13.3 points per game to opposing QBs, and that has come against Russell Wilson, Matt Stafford, Jay Cutler and Geno Smith. Take out Geno and that’s quite a gauntlet.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 5: @Ten.): Tate should be back, and it appears he’s been passed on the depth chart by Crowell. Despite the good matchup, West won’t see enough work to be a productive option this week.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 5: @Dal.): Foster should be a little healthier this week after limited touches a week ago, and the Cowboys’ defense has been much better than advertised. Blue will see limited touches, and I just don’t see enough upside for Blue to be a strong play. His only TD this season came on a blocked punt.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): Despite Donald Brown’s struggles, Oliver isn’t a good bet to do damage this week. The Jets allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league by a significant margin. It looks like Donald Brown will still start this week, and there won’t be enough stats for even one productive RB in this matchup.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 5: vs. KC): Hyde has yet to put up a reasonable yardage day, so he needs a TD to be productive. The Chiefs’ defense has been stout, allowing just 12.3 points per game to opposing RBs. I don’t expect a strong showing from Hyde this week. With just 2 byes this week, there are plenty of higher upside options you can play instead.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 5: @NO): Just making sure you’re aware that Evans is out for the next few weeks. Make other plans.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Lee has already struggled to get involved in the Jags’ offense since week 1. Ace Sanders returns from suspension this week and could steal some slot looks from Lee, who already has a minor role in the offense. There just isn’t enough upside to even consider Lee.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. StL.): I don’t love Matthews this week. The Rams have been getting gashed in the run game, and as a result, teams don’t have to throw. They’ve allowed under 190 yards per game through the air. Matthews has to compete with Maclin, Riley Cooper, Zach Ertz, Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy for targets. There just isn’t enough to go around this week to rely on Matthews.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 5: @SD): Jace’s time is coming, but it’s not quite here yet. His role is rapidly expanding, but the Chargers are allowing just 6 points per game to opposing TEs. I don’t see Amaro eclipsing that number. He’s safe to expect a few catches for about 30 yards from, but anything more would be a bonus.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Fauria is still out, which keeps Ebron on the radar, but with Calvin back closer to full strength, his targets should drop this week. The Bills have been decent against tight ends, and Ebron will just be too touchdown dependent for my taste this week.
Rookies on Byes this week: QB Derek Carr, OAK, RB Damien Williams, MIA, WR Jarvis Landry, MIA
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. vs. Atl.): Williams tallied over 60 yards and a score in garbage time in last Thursday’s win over the Redskins, and Atlanta allows the most RB points in the league. Their run defense is putrid. If the Falcons keep this game close, it’ll be more Jennings than Williams, but I love the upside Williams has this week. Atlanta couldn’t even contain Matt Asiata last week.
RB Darrin Reaves, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): With injuries to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Panthers’ coach Ron Rivera announced this week that Darrin Reaves is the starting RB right now. The Panthers haven’t consistently committed to the run game this year, and they’ve been predictable when they do with Cam staying in the pocket, but the Bears’ run defense isn’t very good. Reaves is an ok flex option in 12-team leagues.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): It’s hard to suggest playing Beckham in his debut game, but you should certainly keep an eye on his usage. He has incredible athleticism, and could find a big role in this offense as a dynamic playmaker. Make sure to pay attention.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 5: @Den.): Brown is still unlikely to be starting in many fantasy leagues, but he should be a sneaky flex/WR3 yet again this week. The Broncos allow the 2nd most passing yards in the league and the Cardinals have made Brown a part of the gameplan. When asked after the week 3 win over San Francisco if he was included in the gameplan because they didn’t know who he was, he responded “No one knows me.” I love that response, and I like Brown’s chances at a TD this week.
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 5: @NO): This isn’t a great matchup, with New Orleans allowing less than 5 points per game to opposing TEs, but with Mike Evans out, ASJ should have a much more prominent role in the passing game. He has already passed Brandon Myers on the depth chart and played on every offensive snap last week. Glennon helped Tim Wright to some big games last year, and he could do the same this week. ASJ could be a sneaky good option this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you to fantasy victory. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was a big one for the current rookie class. First round quarterbacks Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater got their first taste of NFL action, and it won’t be short lived. Matt Cassel is on injured reserve and Gus Bradley as anointed Bortles the Jaguars’ starter for the remainder of the season. It was another solid week for the rookie receivers too, with big performances from Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews and John Brown. With the first bye week of the season upon us, it’ll be even more critical to pay attention to the rooks since you might need some of them to fill in for your studs who are taking the week off. With that in mind, let’s dive right in to the week 4 outlook…
Rookies to Start:
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 4: @Bal.): Kelvin is quickly earning automatic start status as long as your league requires 3 WRs. Regardless of matchup, KB is going to see plenty of targets and is a tough cover for just about anyone due to his size. The Ravens allow the 7th most points to opposing WRs thus far. Don’t overthink this. For the record, I was wrong about Benjamin in the preseason. His drop issues still remain, but he sees so much volume as the clear number one WR in Carolina, he’ll keep producing.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 4: @Dal.): While the Cowboys’ defense hasn’t exactly lived up to the “historically bad” hype, but Cooks’s speed will give the ‘Boys fits. You should feel comfortable firing him up as a WR3 in PPR leagues.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): The Atlanta Falcons have a really good offense. They also have a really bad defense. That should equate to Teddy throwing it a bit more than the Vikes would like and he should have success when he does. Matt Cassel was averaging under 6 yards per attempt this season, and Bridgewater was at 7.5 in his first game action. Granted it’s a small sample size, but Teddy could be in line for a really strong first start. He should be a high-end QB2 this week.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 4: @SD): Bortles should be a low-end QB2 option this week. There’s a little fear that the Chargers will be able to control the clock and keep the ball out of Bortles’s hands. If the Jags’ defense can get off the field, there are some factors working in Blake’s favor. SD has allowed a QB rating of over 100 through the first 3 games, is missing one of their best defensive players in Melvin Ingram, and haven’t picked off a pass yet this season. Add in that the Jaguars will be playing from behind, and there’s potential for a nice fantasy day.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 4: vs. Car.): The only thing keeping me from saying to start Zo-Bot for sure are the reports that the Ravens plan to reinsert Bernard Pierce as the starter. Taliaferro was outstanding against the Browns, and has earned himself a share of the workload, and the Panthers’ defense isn’t nearly as stingy as you might think. They’ve allowed a whopping 6 yards per carry through 3 games and were gashed by the Steelers on Sunday night. I like Taliaferro as a flex this week.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Sankey’s role is growing quickly, and the Colts have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing RBs at 21.7 points per game. Greene is still the starter, but I think Sankey sees a good amount of work this week and is a decent bet for double-digit fantasy points. I’d say better than a 50/50 shot in PPR leagues.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 4: @Hou.): I like Watkins the most of any WR listed as borderline this week since the Texans have given up plenty of yards to opposing WRs, but with E.J. at QB, there’s always some risk of a bust game. If I had to guess, I’d expect him to put up 70-80 yards but he could certainly fall short.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 4: @Pit.): Evans certainly seemed to benefit from having Mike Glennon under center in week 3, but Glennon fed targets to Vincent Jackson last season. Granted, he didn’t have another weapon like Evans, but I’d want to play the waiting game with this situation before I roll with Evans. He could have a really strong game this week, but it would probably come from my bench.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 4: @SF): Matthews makes an intriguing bye week fill-in option. The 49ers have allowed the 2nd most points to opposing WRs through the first 3 weeks, and Matthews has clearly been better than Riley Cooper thus far. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matthews find double-digit points again, and I’m pretty confident he’ll have at least 6. He’s a better PPR play than standard.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 4: @SD): Robinson is quickly becoming the go-to guy in Jacksonville. The Jaguars will play from behind a lot, so there’s a ton of long term upside. Bortles leaned on Robinson after getting in against Indy and will likely continue to do so. 60-70 yards seems like the floor for what he could do this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): I’m still not ready to trust Carr. He’s lost his top receiver Rod Streater for the year and has a non-existent run game. This week the Raiders get to travel 8 or 9 time zones east to play in London. Hard to imagine Carr has a banner day. Leave him out of your lineup if you’ve got him.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): It looks like Arian Foster is going to play in week 4. If he doesn’t, Blue would get a slight bump to borderline, but the Bills run D has been stingy. The Texans will certainly run, but Blue would be no lock to match his week 3 output.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): I love McKinnon’s raw talent and he does have a tasty matchup, but for some reason the Vikings seem committed to plodder Matt Asiata. With AP out, the Vikings are in dire need of playmakers and McKinnon and Cordarrelle Patterson are the best options. Norv Turner just doesn’t know how to use them right now. If the Vikes change course on Asiata, Jerick could be in for a big day. I just don’t see it happening.
RB Devonta Freeman, ATL (Wk. 4: @Min.): Not much analysis needed here. There are just too many mouths to feed in the Falcons’ backfield in a pass-happy offense to make Freeman a viable fantasy play right now.
WRs Allen Hurns & Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 4: @SD): Hurns totaled just one catch in week 3, albeit a 60+ yard touchdown catch. He just won’t see enough volume with Cecil Shorts back in the mix. Lee, meanwhile, likely won’t even play this week due to injury. Even if he does suit up, he still has work to do to establish a role and rapport with Bortles.
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 4: @Pit.): ASJ is a tempting option with the Steelers allowing 12.3 points per game to opposing tight ends so far, but I just don’t trust this offense to get him the ball enough for a productive day.
Rookies on Byes this week: RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrance West, CLE, RB Jeremy Hill, CIN, RB Marion Grice, ARI, WR John Brown, ARI, and WR Cody Latimer, DEN
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 4: @Ind.): This one will require a little monitoring of the situation. Jake Locker is questionable with a wrist injury, but it’s not certain whether it’ll be Mett or Charlie Whitehurst who would start in his place. It’s a great matchup with the Colts giving up a ton of points to opposing QBs, and Mettenberger has the ability to take advantage.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): Hyde would be a ballsy play, even in deep leagues, but there has been a bunch of speculation that the 49ers will go back to playing bully ball and pounding it on the ground this week to try to get back on track. If they do that, Hyde will certainly see a decent share of carries.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): The Jaguars have been giving up 28.7 points per game to opposing RBs so far this year, easily the worst in the league. Do your really think Donald Brown will do that much damage? The Chargers did add Shaun Draughn this week, but they won’t have time to work him into the gameplan. It’ll be Oliver getting the number 2 carries. I think the Chargers will realize that giving Donald Brown 31 carries a week when the RB group is thin to begin with is a recipe for disaster. I like Oliver to top 50 yards and possibly find paydirt.
RB Marion Grice, ARI (Wk. 4: Bye): I know it’s silly to list a player on a bye, but people should be aware of him as a possible stash. The Cardinals swiped him from San Diego’s practice squad, and he could find a role in this offense. Andre Ellington is playing through an injured foot, Jonathan Dwyer likely won’t be on the field this year, and Stepfan Taylor just isn’t very good. Grice is a versatile player who should be getting 5-10 touches per game before long.
WR Philly Brown, CAR (Wk. 4: @Bal.): Brown caught a surprising 7 passes in week 3 with Jerricho Cotchery out. If Cotchery misses another week, Brown is an interesting PPR option against a team that has struggled to contain possession receivers and was gouged by Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins a week ago. As I mentioned earlier, the Ravens have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): Moncrief got involved in the 2nd half last week despite a big Colts lead and he was impressive. He could surprise again this week if T.Y. Hilton can’t play despite the likely scenario that Indy wins big. It’s only a matter of time before the Colts realize Moncrief is a better WR than Hakeem Nicks.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Amaro has started to make his presence felt, and the only players the Lions’ defense has been at all generous too are the tight ends, allowing 9.3 points per game to them so far. I like Amaro to catch for over 50 yards this week with a chance for more.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you survive the season’s first bye week unscathed. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.