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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully you were luckier than I was last week and weren't saddled with both Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas's soul crushing fantasy let downs. Hopefully you survived another week. The rookies played a huge role last week, especially guys like Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans. Martavis Bryant wasn't too shabby either, recording the longest play from scrimmage of the season. So which rookies are worth trusting with everything on the line again this week? Let's dive in and find out...
Rookies to Start:
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Crowell had a passable fantasy day in week 14, finding the end zone for the 8th time in his rookie campaign, but again he split the workload fairly evenly with Terrance West. There's some risk to starting Crowell as long as West is around, but he's still the better option of the duo, and the threat of Johnny Manziel running should open up all kinds of running lanes for the Crow. I'd feel comfortable firing him up as an RB2 against a Bengals' defense that allows the 4th most points to opposing RBs.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): This one isn't rocket science. He's got 90+ yards in 6 straight games and 3 TDs in his last 3 games. The Redskins' defense has been burned repeatedly this year, and Beckham will likely burn them multiple times this week. He's got WR1 upside.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 15: @Car.): Evans continued to show off his considerable talents in week 14, catching 2 TDs against the stingy Lions' secondary. Carolina's defense is not nearly as stingy, and Evans has 8 TDs over the last 6 games. I expect he finds the end zone again this week, and there is no reason he should be on your bench.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Although KB has been thoroughly inconsistent, he remains a solid WR2. There's a lot of boom or bust potential, but Benjamin scores touchdowns so often you'd have to have elite options to play instead in order to sit Kelvin this week. He burned Tampa for a 6-92-1 line the first time these teams faced off.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Bryant is a boom or bust play as usual, but the arrow is pointing way up this week. The Falcons just got shredded by the Packers' pass attack on Monday night, and they are one of the five worst defenses in the league against fantasy wideouts. Bryant only needs one big play to be worth a lineup spot, and there's a good chance he gets that this week.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Matthews didn't do much last week against the Seahawks, but that's because Mark Sanchez threw for less than 100 yards against an incredible defense. Things should be better this week. He caught 4 balls for 51 yards and a TD when the Eagles went to Dallas on Thanksgiving, and I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds that stat line this week. The Dallas defense will look like a college team in comparison to the defense the Eagles just faced.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Johnny Manziel, CLE (WK. 15: @Cin.): Johnny Football has finally gotten the nod to start at QB for the Browns. The Manziel era has arrived! Should we be excited for his first start? The jury's still out on that. He will face a tough passing defense, but his running ability will give him the chance to put together an okay fantasy day. It's almost impossible to predict how Manziel is going to do, but if you feel like rolling the dice as a low end QB2, there's certainly upside.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 15 vs. Ari.): Mason runs into a brutal matchup with the Cardinals, at least on paper, but the Cards' D has softened against the run over the past 2 weeks. Jamaal Charles and washed up Steven Jackson both had strong days against them. Mason should be a strong bet for 60+ yards and should be on the RB2 radar.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): This week is a must win game for the Bengals, and if they're smart, they'll force feed the ball to Hill. The Browns' biggest weakness is their run defense, and Joe Haden has consistently gotten the better of A.J. Green. Hill saw a near even split of the carries with Gio Bernard just a week after questioning OC Hue Jackson's play calling. He still averaged over 5 yards per carry on his touches while Bernard had just 17 yards on 6 carries. Hill is at least a reasonable flex-play, but if the Bengals run the ball as much as they should, Hill could end up a high end RB2.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 15: @Cin.): He doesn't have nearly the upside that Crowell does this week, but as long as West is seeing close to half the carries, he still has flex appeal. The threat of Manziel's running will open up lanes for West the same as it will for Crowell.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): Williams is coming off his best game as a pro, but that was against the awful Titans. The Redskins are awful as well, but they are stout against the run. If Jennings is expected to be out or extremely limited again, Williams will have some low-end flex appeal, but I wouldn't expect nearly the output he managed in week 14. I'd expect 60-70 yards and a TD to be his ceiling this week if he gets the start, but it's sounding like Jennings might be close to full strength for this one. Pay attention to the updates throughout the week.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Watkins finally got back on track last week, even if a lot of the damage came in garbage time as the Bills scrambled to make it close. The Bills' offense had little to no downfield passing game for the few weeks before the Broncos game, but they should again have ample garbage time against the Packers' juggernaut offense. Watkins has shown himself to be a risky play of late, but he has a ton of upside as a WR3 this week.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 15: @NE): It's a tough matchup this week with the Pats' formidable corners, but he's had 5+ catches and 40+ yards in each of his past 6 games. I'd expect that to be the floor again this week, which makes him a high floor, low upside WR3 in PPR this week.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Moncrief has a chance to blow up over the next few games. Reggie Wayne may have a torn tricep, and he might be shut down for the rest of the season before long. Moncrief is already ahead of Hakeem Nicks on the depth chart, playing 50 snaps to Nicks's 18. Even if Wayne plays this week, Moncrief has killer upside against the worst defense in the league against WRs. If Reggie sits, Donte has WR2 upside the rest of the way this season.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Lee has settled in as a PPR WR3 in each of the past 2 weeks, and now gets to face a battered Ravens' secondary that has allowed 26.5 points per game to opposing WRs, tied with the Texans for most in the NFL. Lee should again be a solid WR3 option in PPR leagues, and should be in standard leagues with 12+ teams as well.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 15: @Det.): Bridgewater has finally showed the ability to produce in plus matchups, putting up 2 TDs in 4 straight games and just eclipsed 300 yards passing against the Jets in week 14. Unfortunately for Teddy, he gets to face the Lions this week. The first time around, he threw for just 188 yards, no TDs and 3 picks, and that was at home. This one's in Detroit. I wouldn't expect a much improved performance.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 15: @KC): Carr put up his second game of the season with 3+ TDs last week, and it was something no one saw coming. I don't expect a repeat this week. The Chiefs will be itching to get their hands on Carr in Arrowhead after what happened when the teams met in Oakland. Carr will struggle to get going in this one. There's no reason to trust Carr at Arrowhead.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): To put it simply, you can do better. Sankey's role has actually been shrinking of late, and I don't expect the trend to reverse this week against the stout Jets' defense. Sankey hasn't made himself much of a part of the passing game, and he'd be hard pressed to approach 50 yards on the ground.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Blue vultured a TD from Arian Foster last week, but there's no reason to get excited. He gained just 15 yards on 9 carries against a bad defense. At this point he's nothing more than a Foster handcuff.
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 15: @Car.): There just aren't enough touches coming his way to trust him with your season on the line this week. He got a season-low 6 touches against the Lions, and I'm not sure he'll see much more than that this week. He's topped 50 yards just once, and there is no reason to expect that to change this week.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 15: @Det.): McKinnon hasn't played in a couple weeks, but I'd expect him to suit up this week [Editor's Note: McKinnon has since been placed on IR]. It doesn't mean there's a place for him in your lineup. The Lions are the 3rd best defense in the league at limiting RB fantasy production, and there's no reason to think McKinnon will suddenly go off in his return from injury. He still hasn't scored a TD all year.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 15: @SD): Don't chase last week's stats with Thompson. Sure he had more rushing yards than C.J. Anderson, but he touched the ball just 5 times all game, and Anderson scored all 3 touchdowns. Expect Thompson's numbers to fall off a cliff this week.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 15: @Sea.): I was wrong when I thought Hyde would have a surprisingly good game when the 49ers hosted the Seahawks at Levis Stadium. I won't make the same mistake as the 49ers head to Seattle. The 'Hawks are a different animal at home, and have been dominant of late on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't risk playing Hyde in any format.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Adams predictably came back to earth after a huge game in prime time against New England. As long as Jordy and Cobb are able to get open, Davante is left fighting for scraps. The Bills are a slight upgrade at corner from what Atlanta offered. but they aren't in the same league as the Pats. Expect another quiet day for Adams unless he finds paydirt.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 15: @StL.): Brown was held catchless on 4 targets last week, and I'm not optimistic about his outlook this week either. He does his best work on the deep ball, but Stanton will need time to throw deep, and I doubt he gets it against the Rams' ferocious pass rush. St. Louis has the 7th most sacks in the NFL (35), and all but one of them have come since week 7. The odds of Brown getting loose for a deep one are really not good.
TEs Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk.15: @Ten.), Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 15: @Car.), and Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 15: vs. Min.): Not one rookie TE is worth playing this week. Amaro still hasn't been cleared from his concussion and ASJ is uncertain with injury this week as well. I wouldn't have any faith that they'll even play, and even less that they produce if the do. Ebron, meanwhile, has been putting up between 20 and 30 scoreless yards each week. This week he faces off with the Vikings, who allow less than 5 TE fantasy points per week. There's no reason to expect a breakout.
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Bortles has quietly cut down on his interceptions, throwing just 4 picks in his last 5 games after averaging 2 per game over the first 6 contests, and he's also continued to give his numbers a boost with his legs, averaging 28 yards per game on the ground. This week he gets a really brutal Ravens' secondary, and is a solid bet to throw multiple TDs for just the 3rd time all year. He's certainly risky, but if you're desperate this week for a QB2, you could certainly do worse.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. vs. Jax.): ZoBot finally got back into the mix in the Ravens' running game last week, and there's a decent chance they play from ahead in this one. It would have to be a really deep league to give Taliaferro a try this week, but there is upside for 50+ yards and a TD if things break right.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 14: @Bal.): Hurns makes it a trio of sleepers in the Jags-Ravens game. I mentioned that the Ravens' secondary is really bad, and Hurns has shown the ability to get deep for scores (at least in a couple games). There is a ton of risk in playing Hurns, but he's got great upside if you're really desperate. He could be a really fun option in daily leagues or if your out of the playoffs and your league still does a high score pool each week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps secure you a spot in the championship. Be extra dilligent in staying on top of injury updates this week and double check the lineup before the games get started. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of us, it’s the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you were able to secure a bye into the next round, but if not, this week’s lineup decisions will be critical. With rookies being inconsistent by nature, there are only a few that I can fully recommend starting this week. That doesn’t mean those are the only rookies worth playing. Before we get into specifics, I just want to offer one piece of advice: Start your studs! You don’t want to be kicking yourself next week because you decided to sit T.Y. Hilton for a guy like Doug Baldwin or Jarvis Landry just because Hilton’s facing Joe Haden and the other guy has a plus matchup. Sure there’s a risk of a dud from T.Y., but he could also have a monster game. It’s much easier to live with the dud from T.Y. than T.Y. blowing up on your bench. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the outlook for the rookies in week 14…
Rookies to Start:
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Sure, Crowell was awful last Sunday, but if you want to win this week you’ll look past his miserable week 13 performance and get him in there this week. Crowell is listed as questionable with a hip injury, but the Colts allow 20 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. I’m starting the Crow in both leagues that I own him in, and I think he’s in line for a big game.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Beckham failed to find the end zone in a dream matchup with the Jaguars last week, but he remains a must-start option as a borderline WR1. He has 6+ catches and 90+ yards in each of his past 5 games and is a great bet to find the end zone against a Titans’ defense that just let Ryan Fitzpatrick torch them for 6 scores. Rueben Randle’s recent disciplinary issues (benched due to tardiness to meeting) should only increase Beckham’s work.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 14: @NO): The Saints managed to contain KB in the first meeting between these teams, holding him to season-lows of 2 catches and 11 yards. Don’t expect a repeat of that game. The Panthers are still force-feeding the ball to Benjamin, and the Saints’ Keenan Lewis hasn’t been the same since injuring his knee against the 49ers a few weeks ago. I expect Kelvin to put up at least 60 yards and a TD, and those numbers should be in your lineup.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 14: @Det.): Despite the tough matchup with the Lions, and the relatively weak outing last Sunday, Evans fits the idea of starting your studs. He has to be in the lineup. He’s got a pretty high floor, tallying at least 47 yards in every game except the season opener, and he’s got a ceiling that can win your week. I wouldn’t be able to sit him knowing what he is capable of.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): I wouldn’t necessarily say Bridgewater is turning the corner just yet, but he’s thrown just 2 INTs in his last 5 games and is coming off back-to-back 2 TD performances (his only 2 of the year). This week he’s home against the Jets, who have allowed a staggering 27:4 TD:INT ratio to opposing QBs. Given the matchup, Teddy is a passable QB2 this week, but his ceiling will be limited by what should remain a run-heavy game plan.
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Mett left last week’s game with a shoulder injury, but he seems to have avoided any serious damage and the Titans expect him to start this week. He did lose his most talented downfield target in Justin Hunter to injured reserve, but he should again be a borderline QB2 with upside. The Giants D hasn’t been the same without Prince Amukamara in the secondary and Mett was on his way to what could have been a 300-yard game before getting hurt last week.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Hill was called out by offensive coordinator Hue Jackson after questioning Jackson’s game plan on Sunday. Hue said he needed to block better and break more tackles because, “that’s what running backs do.” I expect Hill to want to make a statement this week in a game that could really cement the Bengals’ claim to the AFC North crown. The timeshare with Gio limits his upside a bit, but a bit of inspired play should make Hill a borderline RB2 with upside.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 14: @Was.): Mason made good on my prediction of triple-digit yards last week, but I didn’t expect 3 TDs to go with it. You have to be kicking yourself if you didn’t start him. It was the breakout game we’ve been waiting for from Tre, but he should come back to earth a bit this week. The Redskins have been very stout vs. the run, but Mason’s volume isn’t going anywhere. He’s the engine that makes the Rams’ offense go, and he’s at least in the RB2 discussion this week, and would be a strong flex-play.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 14: @Ten.): This only applies if Jennings is out this week. He’s questionable with injury. Even though Williams is an unsexy option who runs like he’s stuck in mud, you could do worse than the lead back facing the second-most generous defense in terms of RB fantasy points. I’d much rather play Williams if he starts than a questionable option like Bishop Sankey, Chris Ivory or LeGarrette Blount.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Speaking of the Bishop, he faces yet another favorable matchup on the other side of the Giants-Titans game. This may be Sankey’s last chance to show that he can produce in a good matchup, but it would probably be best if that chance comes with him on your bench. He’s still got some appeal in really deep leagues, but he’s even been vulture at the goal line by Dexter McCluster. He should be good for about 50 scoreless yards. It’s worth noting that he’s been returning kicks over the past 3 weeks if your league gives points for that.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): The targets and production have been steady with Sanchez at QB, but the Seahawks’ defense allows the fewest WR points in the league and has been downright dominant as a whole over the past 2 games. Matthews should remain a big part of the offense this week, but his upside will be extremely limited in such a tough matchup. He’s more worthy of a play in PPR than standard.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Landry is going to be a safe WR3 this week for PPR leagues, but he should be on the WR3 radar in standard leagues as well. The Ravens allow as many WR points as any team in the league, and Ryan Tannehill just looks lost trying to throw downfield. Landry has been fantastic in the short passing game, and he should rack up catches again this week. The yardage should remain modest, but a TD is at least a 50/50 bet this week.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 14: @Den.): I’d actually lean towards sitting Watkins this week. Kyle Orton has been pretty bad lately, and Watkins’s production has suffered as a result. I’m not really confident that he rebounds this week against Aqib Talib and the Broncos, even if there is ample garbage time. At best he’s a WR3 this week.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s somewhat frustrating that Brown didn’t take advantage of his plus matchup last week with the Falcons, but he’s averaged 61 yards per game over the past 4 games, and 64 yards per game in 6 home contests (just 31 ypg on the road in 6 games). He should be an okay WR3 in deeper leagues even if Fitz plays this week, and okay for standard leagues if Fitz sits.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Despite his monster game against the Patriots last Sunday, Adams is a risky play this week. He benefitted from the Pats’ focus on slowing down Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and he still managed to leave 2 TDs on the field. This week he’s back to being a boom or bust option, and is a major roll of the dice this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Johnny Manziel, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): If you saw the news on Tuesday, then you probably know not to play Manziel, but even if something were to change between now and Sunday, I’d still keep him benched. There’s no way to really know what to expect. Crowell would get a boost if Manziel starts though.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): His numbers have been very poor this year, putting up far more turnovers than the Jags can be comfortable, and the Texans have 15 interceptions in 12 games. Multiple turnovers are likely again , and it’s not a good sign that he’s averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt over the past 2 games without Allen Robinson. Keep him benched this week.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Not much analysis needed here. The 49ers allow the 4th fewest pass yards in the league and Carr has failed to break 200 yards passing in 9 of his 12 starts. There is no reason to expect him to get to 200 this week.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Jerick was out last week, but I wouldn’t trust him even if he plays this week. He should slide back into his usual role after Joe Banyard badly blew a blitz pickup last week, but zero touchdowns all year? You can’t make just make the argument that he’s due. There’s no reason to expect TD #1 this week.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): West was clearly played 2nd fiddle to Crowell last week, and was blasted publicly Monday by head coach Pettine this week for his fumbling woes. As long as Crowell is good to go, West should be on the bench. He gets a bump up to an intriguing flex option if the Crow is out.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 14: @Jax.): As expected, Blue has been a non-factor with Arian Foster back, and that should continue to be the case this week. There’s no reason to consider him despite a plus matchup.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 14: @Mia.): There were reports this week that John Harbaugh insists that Taliaferro isn’t in the doghouse. The fact that the question would even be brought up shows just how little Taliaferro has factored in the Ravens’ offense. He has just 3 carries in the last 3 games since a fumble in week 10 put him on the bench. He should stay on your bench as well.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 14: @Cin.): It’s hard to say to avoid Bryant altogether after the way he exploded onto the scene, but the bottom has fallen out over the past 2 weeks. He had just 2 catches for 11 yards in week 12 and dropped a sure touchdown in the process. The really troubling number is the 4 targets he received last week. It’s troubling because the Steelers threw the ball 58 times. The Bengals’ defense is really good against WRs, and you’d be better off not relying on Bryant to bounce back.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Despite a really good matchup, I wouldn’t have the stones to trust Hurns with my season on the line. He could certainly blow up and have a big game against the defense that allows the most fantasy WR points in the league, but he’s much more likely not to. Hurns has done nothing to warrant a spot in the lineup, tallying less than 5 points (standard leagues) in 7 of his last 8 games. Why would you expect that to change this week?
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 14: vs. TB): Ebron has been a total disappointment this season. Lions’ fans have lamented the decision to draft Ebron over a guy like Odell Beckham Jr. for much of the season, and I can’t bank on the athletic rookie to pick it up this week. He’s been seeing a handful of targets each week, but has exactly 22 or 23 yards in each of his past 4 games. If you’re happy with 2 points out of your tight end, be my guest and start him.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Min.): Even if Amaro returns from the concussion that kept him sidelined in week 13, there’s no reason to expect a solid showing. The Vikings have allowed less than 5 points per game to opposing tight ends, and it looks like Rex Ryan and the Jets refuse to throw the ball as long as John Idzik forces him to play Geno Smith. Smith attempted just 13 passes on Monday night, with 5 coming on the final drive. The limited upside in the passing game means Amaro isn’t a realistic streaming option.
TE Richard Rodgers, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Don’t overthink this. Despite scoring a TD in each of the last 2 games, Rodgers isn’t a real option for your lineup this week. He hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any game this year, and the Packers’ stars should have no trouble piling up stats against the Falcons’ porous D. Pinning your tight end hopes to Rodgers on the chance he gets a 3rd TD in as many weeks isn’t a smart choice.
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Marion Grice, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. KC): Andre Ellington is dinged up, and Grice is in line to get the start if AE can’t go. Grice doesn’t have overwhelming talent, but he’s a versatile player who could thrive in an offense that involves the running back in the passing game a bunch. Michael Bush and Stepfan Taylor should mix in a bit, but Grice will get the first carries against a defense that can be run on. Grice should be a solid flex option in PPR and deeper leagues if he gets the start.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 14: @Oak.): Teams rarely lose by 50 in the NFL and then proceed to lay another egg the following week, but I still expect the 49ers to be playing from ahead of the Raiders all day. Hyde hasn’t gotten a ton of carries over the past few weeks, but game flow should work in his advantage this week. I’d expect 12+ carries from Hyde, and against the Raiders’ league-worst RB defense, that makes him worthy of flex consideration in deep leagues.
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 14: @Det.): Doug Martin came back from the dead last week to take over as the lead back for the Bucs, but Sims could have some really sneaky upside as a PPR flex play in deep leagues. The Lions’ defensive front is stout against the run, but they’ve allowed a league-high 75 receptions to opposing RBs. Sims’s role in the passing game gives him value in what looks like a brutal matchup on paper.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Moncrief was mentioned here last week, and he went off for 130+ yards and 2 TDs. He’s been great every time he’s been given a chance, and his snaps have increased each of the last 2 weeks. With Joe Haden likely shadowing T.Y. Hilton all day, there should be opportunities for Moncrief to make an impact again as he squares off with burnable Buster Skrine and K’Waun Williams. There’s some risk since Moncrief is just a part-time player, but you saw what he’s capable of last week.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): I mentioned that Hurns should be benched, but someone has to catch Blake Bortles’s passes, right? The polished rookie has been productive when given opportunities, and he should have plenty of them against a Houston defense that allows 27.4 points to opposing WRs per game. Lee should get the biggest piece of the Jags WR pie and makes for an intriguing WR3 in deep leagues, especially PPR.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 14: @Det.): If ASJ suits up this week, he’s the best option among the rookie TEs. Tight end is the one position the Lions have been vulnerable against, and when he plays, Austin is in on almost every play. He’s done little to suggest he’s more than a TD dart throw, but he’s got a slightly higher floor that Richard Rodgers or Amaro.
That’s it for this week. Hopefully some of this info helps you into the next round. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Bye weeks are over, so the decisions get tougher this week. It doesn’t make it any easier when you take into account that this is the final regular season week in most leagues, and the choices could be critical if your playoff spot is in jeopardy. Even if you’re not in the playoff hunt, play it out and try and take some pleasure in spoiling someone else’s hopes or seeding. By now we’ve got a pretty good idea of who most of the rookies are, but you know NFL football is never predictable. Let’s take a look at the rookie matchups for week 13:
Rookies to Start:
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 13: @TB): The return of Giovani Bernard brought an even split of the backfield touches for the Cincinnati Bengals, but Hill was clearly the superior back and should continue to be. The even split is still more work than Hill was seeing before Gio was hurt, and the rookie should be a high-end RB2 in a great matchup against the Bucs. He’s a great bet for a TD.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 13: vs. Oak.): Mason finally gets a plus matchup after averaging 85 total yards per game over a brutal 4-game stretch of the schedule (@SF, @Ari, vs. Den, @SD). With the cake matchup, Mason is a really solid bet for triple digit yards, and is a safe RB2 this week.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 13: @Jax.): I almost feel bad for the Jaguars corners who have to cover Odell Beckham. They don’t have much of a chance, and it won’t be pretty. OBJ is a borderline WR1 this week.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 13: @Min.): KB has struggled with consistency and drops throughout his rookie season, and yet he still has been held under 9 points in standard leagues just 3 times in 11 games. He has 8 TDs on the year, and the Vikings defense isn’t anything to write home about. Benjamin should be a safe WR2 this week.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Evans will face the toughest defense against WRs that he’s seen in some time, but he’s been pretty much matchup-proof. He’s got at least 1 TD in 6 of his last 7 games (8 total in that stretch), and should be a borderline WR2/3 with a bunch of upside.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Matthews continued to be solid with Sanchez at QB, tallying a 6-77 line last week. It was the first time all year that J-Matt played more snaps than Riley Cooper. It’s a very positive sign for a rookie who has been coming on very strong. He should be a solid WR2 in what figures to be a shootout on Turkey Day.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Mettenberger is a fun 2QB league streamer right now. His completion percentage and W-L record haven’t been great, but he’s been willing to let loose and wing it downfield. Mett has thrown for 260+ and 2 TDs in 3 of his 4 starts, and put up 299 yards, 2 scores and one INT in the first meeting with Houston. He’s an upside QB2 this week.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): The matchup is a tough one for Crow, but he has the talent to succeed in it. It appears he’s the lead back in the Browns’ committee even though West saw more carries in week 12. Crowell has shown a nose for the end zone, and is low-end RB2 option with substantial upside if he gets the start.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Car.): He’s got to be due for a TD, right? I want to say yes, but who knows. He’s got zero on the season so far. He should still be good for the usual 15-20 touches, and Carolina allows almost 20 RB fantasy points per game. The upside is there, but so is the risk. He’s a boom or bust RB2/flex option.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): The Titans’ run D has been awful, allowing the most RB fantasy points in the league to date, but Arian Foster might be back for this one. After last week’s struggles against the Bengals, Blue’s 150-yard day in week 11 seems like an aberration. Without Foster, there’s plenty of flex appeal in the plus matchup, but I wouldn’t want to play him if Foster is a go.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Sankey’s production remains lackluster, but the workload should be pretty solid once again. I wouldn’t play him over McKinnon, Crowell, or Blue (w/o Arian), but he’s got some low-end flex appeal for 12-team leagues. He’s had a reasonable floor, but not much of a ceiling.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 13: @Atl.): I’m tempted to list Brown as a ‘Rookie to Start’ this week with a great matchup and no Larry Fitzgerald. There’s still a decent amount of risk with Drew Stanton under center, but the two have had a decent connection thus far. Brown has a ton of upside this week and could pay off big as a WR3.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Landry should be safely started as a WR3 in PPR leagues this week. The Jets are a total mess right now. Their biggest weakness is the secondary, and Tannehill is doing whatever he wants in the short passing game where Landry thrives. The rookie’s yardage numbers leave something to be desired in standard leagues, where he’s more WR4 with upside than WR3, but he’s averaging 6-49-1 over his past 4 games.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Bills’ offense was in rhythm on Monday night against the Jets’ dumpster fire of a secondary, but Sammy has very little to do with t. He’s been really struggling since coming back from a groin injury and he should be shadowed by Joe Haden this week. He’s just a WR3 with upside this week.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. NO): We’ve finally seen the floor on Martavis, who bottomed out at 2 catches for 11 yards against the Titans in week 11 on 5 targets. The upside is real, and he could very possibly come up with 2 TDs this week, but he still is a limited snap player who carries some week-to-week risk. Fire him up if you need the upside and can live with the risk.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): The G-Men defense is trending in the wrong direction since the Prince Amukamara injury, giving up 4 TD tosses to Tony Romo last week, but Bortles has been awful since the Allen Robinson injury. He’s completed under 60% of his passes in each of the last 2 ball games against pretty average defenses in Dallas and Indy, and he had a 0:2 TD-INT ratio in each game. He should be better than that this week, but probably not a lot better. Not worth a 2-QB league start.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 13: @StL.): Despite finally breaking into the win column last week, Carr remains a poor option for 2-QB leagues. He’s topped 200 passing yards in just 3 of his 11 starts and has averaged just 1 TD per game since his blowup 4TD game against the Chargers in week 6. Keep him benched against the suddenly dangerous Rams’ defense.
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Car.): The matchup is good for Teddy, and he did just have his first 2TD game of the season, but overall Teddy has struggled mightily. He’s thrown for just 368 yards, 3 TDs and 2 picks in his past 2 games. You can do better even if you can start 2 quarterbacks.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): West will get some work (he actually had more carries than Crowell last week), but unlike Crowell, he’s not a very good bet in tough matchups like the one the Bills present. If he somehow were to get the nod as the starter, it would improve his outlook a bit, but signs point to it being Crowell.
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Doug Martin’s return muddled the Bucs’ backfield situation much more than expected. It was believed the Bucs had turned the page on Martin, but he got the start last week and led the Bucs’ running backs in touches. Add in the fact that the Bengals’ D has stiffened quite a bit over the past couple weeks, and it’s hard to come up with a reason to play Sims this week.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): It’ll be all C.J. Anderson this week in the Denver backfield. Thompson saw just 5 touches last week, and he would need a lot more than that against the Chiefs to be useful.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. SD): The matchup isn’t great, and Pierce has been running as the clear number 2 back in Baltimore lately. ‘Zo has a better chance of giving you a goose egg than he does of clearing 5 points.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Lee finally showed some of that potential he consistently flashed in his USC days in week 12, but he still played just 65% of the offensive snaps. With a limited role in an ineffective offense, Lee will have to show me more before I trust him in any of my fantasy lineups.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Needless to say, week 12 wasn’t a banner week for the Jaguars’ passing game. Lee had an ok game, but no other receiver did. Hurns has had 2 blowup games this season and has a starting spot for the moment, but he has had just 1 catch in each of the last 2 contests. There’s no reason to trust him this week.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Despite a decent matchup, Seferian-Jenkins looks like a longshot to suit up this week. Even if he plays, he’s been fairly unproductive despite ample opportunity for most of the season, and wouldn’t be an especially enticing option this week.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Mia.): The Miami D is elite vs. TEs, and the Jets’ offense is a dumpster fire. Add in that Amaro still hasn’t been cleared after a week 12 concussion, and you can’t feel good relying on Amaro in any format.
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Tom Savage, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): Savage gets mentioned only because of Ryan Mallett’s season-ending injury. Signs point to Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the nod, but if Fitzmagic gets hurt or the Texans fall out of playoff contention, Savage would likely see some action. He could be worth a stash in the deepest of leagues.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 13: @Jax.): After barely playing in week 11, Williams was back to getting some change-of-pace and goal line work in week 12, putting up 35 yards and a TD on 10 carries. He’s a good bet for another TD this week, and could see some extended carries if the Giants get up by a few scores. He’s a roll of the dice flex option in deep leagues.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): This is no more than a hunch, but the Seattle run defense isn’t the same on the road, and the 49ers would be wise to try to win this game on the ground and out-physical the ‘Hawks. That could mean extended run for Hyde, and would make him a better play than usual.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 13: vs. NE): There’s not a ton of reason for confidence with DA’s recent performances, but the Pats do a great job of taking away a team’s best weapons, and for Green Bay that’s Jordy and Cobb. Adams should see some extra looks, so he’s a slightly better option than his usual WR4 dart throw outlook.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): After scoring just 20 & 23 points in their past 2 games, this sets up as an opportunity for the Colts’ offense to get back on track. Dwayne Allen is still nicked up, and Moncrief finally played more snaps than Nicks last week. There’s a ton of upside here down the stretch if he can fully supplant the washed up Hakeem. He’s a guy to grab in dynasty leagues if for some reason he’s available. Nicks and Wayne both figure to be gone next year. For this week, 60 yards and a TD aren’t out of the question if his snaps continue to rise a little.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Ebron had pretty much his worst day as a pro last Sunday, missing one opportunity after another to make plays. He’ll be eager to bounce back this week in front of the home Thanksgiving Day crowd, and the Bears allow more TE points than anyone in the league. I expect a much better showing from the inconsistent rookie.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Remember to check on your players before Sunday, and make sure you know which of your guys are involved in Thursday games this week. You don’t want to wait to set your lineup only to find out you still had Theo Riddick in the lineup when you would have pulled him if you checked. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Have a great Thanksgiving!
Welcome back to the rookie report! While week 11 saw many of the phenomenal crop of rookie WRs continue their dominance (most notably Mike Evans), it was the rookie runners who surprised this past week. Alfred Blue and Jeremy Hill both topped 150 yards, Tre Mason topped 100, and Isaiah Crowell saw his most extended work of the season and put up 90 total yards. The only way it could have been better would be if some of them found the end zone.
Before we dive into this week’s games, I just want to make a point to remind everyone to check the status of their lineup throughout the week, or at least one final check before the games get started on Sunday. Last week I didn’t even mention Alfred Blue in this column and recommended Terrance West as a starter. By Sunday, Arian Foster was out for the Texans and Crowell was announced as starter for the Browns. Pay attention so you don’t miss the boat when these sorts of things happen. There are a lot of borderline rookies this week, so make sure to pay attention to the details. With that, let’s dive into this week’s rookie matchups…
Rookies to Start:
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 12: @SD): The Rams have found the formula that works for them over the past few weeks, and it includes a lot of Tre Mason. The Rams have won 2 of 3 in a brutal stretch (@SF, @Ari, Den.), and Mason averaged 84 yards from scrimmage in those 3 contests. The Chargers are just a middle of the road run defense right now, so Mason is poised for what should be a solid RB2 day.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): This call hinges entirely on the health of Arian Foster. There’s been talk that Foster is expected to play in week 12, but if he doesn’t, Blue is in line for another big day. Mallett’s willingness to take shots downfield opens up some room to run, and the Bengals already allow the 6th most RB points in the league. If Foster does suit up, you’d probably want to keep Blue on the pine. The Texans haven’t really eased Foster’s workload if he plays, even when nicked up.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Tell me one thing that you’ve seen from the Chicago defense that makes you think they can stop Mike Evans. Go ahead. I’ll wait. The truth is, they haven’t done anything to show that, and Evans has at least 7-100-1 in each of his past 3 games, and while he’s not a lock to hit those marks again this week, the upside is just too immense to sit him.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): The Cowboys’ defense has been really good against opposing WRs, but it’s been more of a product of their run-first offense and high time of possession. They don’t have anyone who can cover OBJ, and as long as the G-Men can keep the ‘Boys from from holding the ball for 40 minutes, OBJ should be a safe WR2 yet again.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): The matchup isn’t quite as good as you’d think, but J-Matt will continue to be a safe WR3 as long as Sanchez is under center. He’s topped 100 yards in each of Sanchize’s 2 starts and has 3 TDs to go with those yards. Expect the good times to keep rolling.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Mett’s going to continue to suffer through some rookie growing pains, but his big arm and porous Philly D should make him an upside QB2 option this week. The Eagles have allowed 287 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game. If Mett approaches those stats, He’d be a borderline QB1.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ind.): Bortles has had an extra week to get ready for the Colts, and their defense isn’t imposing (10th most QB points per game allowed), but he’s still no better than a QB2 option without Allen Robinson. He’s been too turnover prone to trust as a number 1, even with decent matchups.
RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 12: @Atl.): The Browns’ backfield situation got a little less crowded this week when Ben Tate was waived by the team, but there still isn’t a ton of clarity as to who the starter will be. The plan seems to be to watch and see who practices best and let them start each week. Crowell is the more talented back, but until Sunday we probably won’t know for sure which guy will get the nod. Whichever back starts will be worth a start on your fantasy squad. The Falcons allow the 2nd most fantasy points in the league to opposing RBs, and Josh Gordon’s return should keep them from stacking the box. I’d expect Crowell to start, but check on Sunday. The back that doesn’t start will be a dicey flex play at best.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 12: @Hou.): Gio should be back this week, but Hill has undoubtedly earned a bigger role in the offense going forward. His carries will take a hit this week, which makes him more of a flex option than a safe starter, but if he gets a hot hand the Bengals know they can ride him. Bengals' beat writers expect Hill to continue to see the most carries on the team for the immediate future, but there’s a lot of volatility with Gio back in the mix.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. GB): I’d expect Ben Tate to need at least a week to get up to speed on the playbook and be a part of the offense, so McKinnon remains the best bet to see lead back carries for the Vikes. Without a bunch of byes this week, he’s just a borderline option. The game flow is likely to keep him from piling up carries, and he still hasn’t scored his first TD, but his workload keeps him in the flex mix.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Sankey’s role has stabilized over the past few weeks, even as his yards per carry have dipped a bit. He finally scored his 2nd TD of the season last week, but he’ll likely need another TD this week to be considered a successful flex play. I would expect over 60 total yards against a suspect Philly run defense.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): The Buffalo snow storm couldn’t have come at a worse time for Watkins. He’s coming off back-to-back down games, and this week gets to do battle with the Jets’ awful secondary, which he torched for 3-157-1 the last time he faced them. If weather isn’t a factor, Watkins would be a safe WR2. If things aren’t totally cleaned up by Sunday, it could be a run-heavy football game that will make it really tough for Watkins to blow up the way he could against New York. Pay attention to the field conditions on Sunday.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 12: @Sea.): Larry Fitzgerald is fighting through an MCL sprain, and although he plans to play through it, he will undoubtedly be limited. The Seahawks defense is outstanding against WRs, but the small, quick guys like Brown are the ones that give them trouble. Stanton clearly likes him. Until this past week, every Stanton TD pass was to Brown and he hit him 5 times in the game against the Lions. Expect 4-5 catches and an ok shot at a TD for Brown this week.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 12: @Den.): Landry is still just fodder for PPR leagues, but as usual he’s in the conversation for WR3 for those leagues. Denver should be playing angry after losing to the Rams, and they won’t take their foot off the gas pedal if they get ahead. That should keep the Dolphins throwing, and should help Landry to pull in at least 5 receptions. He’s more of a WR4 in standard leagues.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ind.): Allen Robinson is done for the year, and it was announced this week that Hurns will start with Marqise Lee playing in 3-WR sets. Hurns has put up some blowup games with other Jaguar receivers sidelined, and there’s a chance he does it again this week. He’s very much a boom-or-bust option with Cecil Shorts likely to see a lot more volume, but Hurns’s deep threat skills give him some appeal as a WR3. Lee isn’t worth a play.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 12: @Min.): Adams appeared to be gaining consistency headed into the Packers’ bye week, but he has just 3 catches for 23 yards and a TD in the 2 games since. Aaron Rodgers said he expected Adams to have some chances going into the Philly game, but it didn’t really play out that way. You’d have to be pretty ballsy to play him, but Adams still has some boom-or-bust WR3 appeal. You just get the feeling that Rodgers has to start looking his way sooner or later.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Seferian-Jenkins is an excellent streaming option this week if you’re missing Dwayne Allen, Julius Thomas, Heath Miller or Greg Olsen. The Bears give up a league-worst 12 points per game to opposing tight ends, and ASJ plays on just about every snap for the Bucs. He disappointed last week against the ‘Skins, but the Bucs should be throwing a bunch to keep pace with the Bears’ offense. He’s a low end TE1 option this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. GB): Teddy’s likely to be throwing a bunch, but he still has a bit of a low ceiling. He still hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns in one game, and although they should be playing from behind, you can’t have any confidence that he’ll do so this week. He’s a dart throw low-end QB2 at best.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 12: vs. KC): The Chiefs’ defense has been stingy during their current 5-game win streak, and there’s no reason to expect that to stop against the winless Raiders. KC has allowed the fewest pass yards per game in the league. Carr isn’t a great option in good matchups. This is a really bad one. The KC defense is an ideal streaming play if they’re available.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 12: @NO): The 49ers and Bengals showed over the past two weeks that the way to win in the Superdome is to run the ball down the Saints’ throats, but there’s no way to know if it’ll be ‘Zo or Pierce who will see primary backup work behind Justin Forsett. Taliaferro is only worth considering for a flex spot if you know he’ll get the number 2 RB work for Baltimore.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 12: vs. StL.): With Ryan Mathews back, Oliver still saw the same 13 carries he handled in the previous 2 contests, but he just hasn’t been doing much with those carries lately. The Rams’ D is stingy vs. running backs, so I’d keep Oliver benched this week. There isn’t enough upside for the risk.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): The ‘Skins do defend the run effectively, and the 49ers have still been using a lot more Gore than Hyde. You can do better than Carlos this week. At best, he’s a roll of the dice for a TD.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): This is an easy call, but I just wanted to point out that with Jennings back from injury, Williams saw just 3 touches for 6 total yards. Don’t even consider him.
WR Paul Richardson, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. Ari.): There are no changes for Richardson’s outlook this week. He just won’t see enough volume to make an impact, and he should see a lot of Antonio Cromartie this week. It’s just not a good situation for him.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Buf.): Amaro had a decent number of targets come his way in his last game, but he has just 2 catches for 6 yards and a TD in Vick’s 2 starts. Even with TE being incredibly shallow this year, I wouldn’t bank on much from Amaro this week.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 12: @NE): The matchup is decent with the Pats allowing 9 points per game to opposing TEs, but the Lions have 3 capable tight ends. Even if the Pats are able to slow down Megatron, I haven’t seen anything that makes me think Ebron will pick up much of that slack. Don’t roll the dice here.
Rookies on Byes: WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR, WR Martavis Bryant, PIT
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 12: @Chi.): He hasn’t overwhelmed since returning from injured reserve, but he seems to have taken the lead back role from Bobby Rainey. The Bucs want to see what they have in Sims, and the Bears’ D is certainly beatable. Sims should be a dart throw flex option in deeper leagues.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Ball and Hillman are both out for the next couple of weeks. C.J. Anderson undoubtedly has the lead back role going in, but Thompson is still capable of vulturing a TD or 2. He will at the very least see change of pace work.
WR Cody Latimer, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): RB isn’t the only position where the Broncos are banged up. Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both are questionable for next week, and if one or both don’t play, I think this is the week Denver finally unleashes Latimer. If he gets his chance, he could really benefit from Brent Grimes playing on Demaryius Thomas. It’ll be hard to pull the trigger without more official news from the Broncos about his role, but his talent is real and his time may be coming.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): With Bradshaw out and Allen banged up, Colts may look for a spark from Moncrief. We saw in the first meeting with Jacksonville that the Colts won’t let up when they get a lead, and I could see Moncrief getting some extra snaps. He did catch 4 balls for 55 yards in garbage time in the first meeting, and a similar stat line this time wouldn’t shock me at all.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you win this week. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.