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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was full of surprises...the Bills topped the Colts, Peyton Manning's poor finish to 2014 seemed to carry over to 2015 despite the Broncos' win, and Dez Bryant suffered a broken foot. The surprises weren't limited to the veterans, however. Marcus Mariota and Ameer Abdullah both put up epic debuts, Jameis Winston had a premeire to forget, Nelson Agholor was almost invisible, and Rashad Greene was targeted a whopping 13 times. What does it mean for week 2? Let's take a look at what to expect...

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 1 is upon us. By now you should have your team drafted and it's all about picking the right guys to fill out the lineup and get off to that all-important 1-0 start. Before the bye weeks hit, the strategy should be pretty simple: Start your studs. Unfortunately, injuries may already be derailing that if you own(ed) Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin, C.J. Spiller, Arian Foster, Mike Evans, Tre Mason, or any other player who is out or questionable for week one. Perhaps there is a rookie who could fill that void and help you get in the win column. Each week I'll break down the rookie matchups, listing which guys you should start, which ones are borderline options, and which ones you should keep planted on the pine. I'll also include a couple of sleepers each week for deep leagues who could also be cheap options for those who play daily or weekly fantasy games. So, without further ado...

(Note: Both quarterback projections are for 2 QB leagues. Both should be sitting in 1 QB format)

Rookies to Start:

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Famous Jameis gets one of his easiest matchups of the year in week one. The Titans have been a mess for a couple of years now, and most of their offseason additions will help on the offensive side of the ball, not defense. The Titans did bring in long time Steelers D coordinator Dick LeBeau, and he's traditionally made life hell on rookie signal-callers with his aggressive blitz schemes, but I doubt he has the personnel to wreak the havoc he's used to. I'd project Winston for about 225 yards and 2 TDs, which should make him a solid start in 2QB leagues (don't start him if you only get one). This projection takes a minor hit if Mike Evans is a no-go.

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): Things have been kind of quiet on the Amari front through training camp. There was one great highlight of him burning Patrick Peterson in a preseason game on a comeback route, but otherwise there hasn't been much buzz. He's been flying a little under the radar. That changes on Sunday when the Raiders get to break out their new toy. Derek Carr will funnel Oakland's new #1 WR with targets, and I expect at least 7 catches in a stellar debut. He should be especially solid in PPR formats.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): The Falcons' defense wasn't very good against WRs a year ago, and there haven't been any substantial improvements made. J-Matt is number one in the pecking order, but he'll see a lot of Atlanta's top CB Desmond Trufant, and Zach Ertz's status is still up in the air. I'd expect a lot of volume to come Nelson's way. He has potential to be a solid WR2 in PPR leagues this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 1: @TB): Tampa Bay is back to running Lovie Smith's Tampa 2 defense, which is a bend-but-don't-break scheme featuring a lot of zone pass defense. If there's one thing Mariota showed in college, it's that he knows how to get the ball to guys in space, and there will be some soft spots in that zone. Unfortunately for Mariota, I'd expect a pretty conservative gameplan from Whisenhunt in the first start of his career. His running ability gives him top-15 QB potential this week, but I'd have to be pretty underwhelmed by my QB2 to roll the dice on Mariota. The Bucs allowed an NFL-low 78 rushing yards to opposing QBs last season.

RB T.J. Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): The Panthers have an imposing front 7 on paper, but they were just a middling defense vs. RBs a year ago. The Jaguars' offense is ascending, but the o-line still has a little work to do. Yeldon makes an intriguing flex option this week, but I'd be happy with 75 yards and a TD from him in his debut. If you think you have better options than that, play them. I will say, I do like Yeldon better this week than...

RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Let's not kid ourselves, you likely drafted Melvin Gordon to play him. He's probably your RB2, but he's only a 2-down back. He will continue to give way to Danny Woodhead in passing situations, and there might be a lot of those this week. The Lions allowed the 3rd fewest RB points last year, and yes they lost Ndamukong Suh, but they did replace him with Haloti Ngata, who was an integral part of the Ravens' defense last year. The Ravens allowed the fewest RB fantasy points. I'm not saying Ngata isn't a dropoff from Suh, just that he isn't as much of one as you might think. Temper your expectations for Gordon this week. Anything over 50 total yards would be a promising debut.

RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): The Eagles did give up 20 TDs to opposing RBs last season, but the front 7 was still stout, allowing just 3.5 ypc and just the 11th most fantasy points to RBs despite allowing them the 4th most TDs. Kyle Shanahan should improve the Falcons' running game, but week one could be a dicey one. I'd expect 12-15 touches for Coleman, and he has big play speed, but you'd basically be hoping he breaks a long one or finds pay dirt if you start him.

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 1: @SD): After Joique Bell missed the entire preseason, I'd expect a decent sized role for Abdullah in week one. He should be solid flex option in PPR leagues, and I'd expect him to pull in 5+ receptions. The Lions know what a special playmaker AA can be, and they should look to get him involved. Don't go crazy here, we're still likely only talking about 10-12 touches, but there is upside in PPR formats.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Johnson was just cleared to resume practice Wednesday after suffering a concussion in the only game that he played in the preseason. Yes the Browns only have 2 running backs on the roster after trading away Terrance West, but I'd expect the bulk of the work to go to Isaiah Crowell. Johnson looks to be the 3rd down and receiving back for the Browns, but only 3 teams allowed fewer catches by RBs last season than the Jets, and new head coach Todd Bowles's Arizona team allowed just 3 more RB receptions than those Jets.

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. NO): The Saints were among the worst in the NFL against RBs a season ago, and things didn't get better when they released Junior Galette and lost Curtis Lofton in the offseason. Unfortunately for Johnson, there's no real telling what his role in the offense will be. He looked to be the clear number 2 to Ellington early on in preseason, but the addition of Chris Johnson has muddled the picture somewhat, especially after CJ looked good in the final preseason game. This is a situation best left avoided for week 1.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 1: @Jax.): The Panthers still won't commit to Funchess as a starter despite the Kelvin Benjamin injury. They have him listed with the second team, and will likely employ a conservative gameplan against a Jags team that was sieve-like against the run last year. With that said, I think the Jacksonville defense quietly came together late last year and will bump up to the middle of the pack of NFL defenses this season. I expect Funchess to disappoint in week one. Unless you're in a pretty deep league, you should have better options this week.

WR Breshad Perriman, BAL (Wk. 1: @Den.): He seems unlikely to play this week, so that should make the decision easier on you, but after limited practice time in camp, he's a poor bet to produce even if he's in the lineup. It's not a good week for him to be hurt. This should be a pass-happy week for the Ravens as they try to keep pace with Denver.

WR Devante Parker, MIA (Wk. 1: @Was.): I love Parker's upside this year, and it's very encouraging from a health standpoint that DeVante played at all in the final preseason game, but I expect him to be eased into regular season action with Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings playing more snaps early on. I could regret this recommendation given who the 'Phins are playing, but I don't think Miami will need much help from Parker to vanquish the Redskins.

WR Phillip Dorsett, IND (Wk. 1: @Buf.): At this point, the Colts' wide receiver depth and gameplan are way too uncertain to play Dorsett. All indications are that he beat out Donte Moncrief for the 3rd WR spot (Moncrief is listed as the starting return man), but we still don't know for sure if the offseason talk of the Colts running more 3 & 4 WR sets and less 2 TE sets was just talk or not. There's a very real chance Dorsett puts up a goose egg.

TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 1: @Den.): I know, the Ravens have to throw to somebody, why not Williams? While I think he's easily the best rookie TE in this class, at 21-years old, the sheer physicality of playing tight end in the NFL will take him some getting used to. There's a reason rookie tight ends typically don't produce in year one. Look for Crockett Gillmore to open the season at the number one TE, and for Williams to work his way into that role as the season progresses.

Deep League & DFS Sleepers:

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Things could get really ugly this year for the Redskins. They'll be playing from behind a lot. Alf Morris is essentially a zero in the passing game, and his yards per carry average is 1.25 yards lower with anyone other than RG3 under center. Add in that the coaching staff has been singing Jones's praises, and Morris is in the final year of his contract, and it adds up to the torch being passed to Jones before the end of the year. I think he'll have a big role before that happens, and it starts week one. Look for close to a 50-50 split of touches between Alf and Jones, and look for Jones to be more impressive with them.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 1: @TB): DGB has impressed thus far in camp and the preseason, and the Titans are carrying just 4 wide receivers on the roster into the opener (Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, Justin Hunter & DGB). Green-Beckham is easily the toughest cover of the group with his freakish size and athleticism, and I don't think anyone on the Bucs is big enough to cover him. He's the best bet of any Titans' pass catcher to score a TD in the opener.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps. Week one is always an unpredictable one for the rookies, so play it safe where you can, and go get a week one win. Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun...It's just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! A new season is almost upon us. You may have already drafted a fantasy team, but if you haven't, the rookies are always the hardest to predict. There's no track record to go off of, so it all becomes a guessing game based on role and perceived talent. With that in mind...I'm here to help. Each week throughout the season I'll breakdown which rookies you should start, which are borderline options, and which rookies you should sit. I'll also throw in a few deep league/cheap DFS sleepers each week as well. Since it's not quite week 1, today is about breaking down which rookies you want to own this season and why. I'll give you my quick top 10 redraft rookies, followed by a position-by-position preview. So, without further ado...

Top 10 Re-draft Rookies

1. WR Nelson Agholor, PHI: Melvin Gordon will lose touches to Danny Woodhead, Yeldon and Amari are on bad offenses. Nelson is ticketed for a big role in a high-volume attack. He's the safest rookie option.

2. RB TJ Yeldon, JAX: More on the reasoning later, but let's leave it at this - Yeldon should be a 3-down back while Gordon projects to be a 2-down back this year.

3. RB Melvin Gordon, SD: See above for reasoning

4. WR Amari Cooper, OAK: Clear-cut WR1 in an offense that will play from behind a bit.

5. RB Todd Gurley, STL: Would be number one on the list if we knew he would be ready to go at full strength week 1.

6. WR Devin Funchess, CAR: Injury to Kelvin Benjamin makes him the Panthers' WR1. His ceiling likely resembles what KB did last season.

7. RB Ameer Abdullah, DET: The longer it takes Joique to get onto the field, the larger the portion of his workload Abdullah will steal.

8. RB Tevin Coleman, ATL: Still unclear who will be the lead back in Atlanta, but Coleman was hand-picked by Kyle Shanahan in the draft. Expect a 50-50 split with Freeman at a minimum.

9. WR DeVante Parker, MIA: Parker's role is unclear with a crowded group of receivers, but the Dolphins' offense might break out in a big way, and Parker might be the most talented guy in the group. I wouldn't bet against him carving out a nice role this year.

10. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN: Monster talent with a clear path the the #1 WR job in Tennessee's offense. It might not be a great offense, but if DGB's off-field troubles are behind him he could be a star soon.

Alright, there's the top 10, now onto the positional breakdowns...

QUARTERBACK:

Let's be honest, in re-draft there are only two QBs that are even worth considering. The rest of the crop may have some upside down the road...Sean Mannion is basically Mike Glennon part deux, Garrett Grayson could develop into a Joe Flacco-type at best (albeit with a weaker arm), Bryce Petty is the closest to a starting gig with only old man Fitz and inept Geno in front of him, but the rookie QB not in the top 2 with the most upside is Brett Hundley. He's just stuck behind Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.

 I know, I didn't rank any in the top 10 rookies, and there's a good reason for that. It isn't that I don't like the top 2, I just don't see either guy being more than a low-end QB2, which means you really aren't playing either guy unless you're in a 2 quarterback league or as a bye filler. While both are borderline top-20 options at QB this year (I have Jameis at 19 and Mariota at 22), I'd give the edge to Winston because of the TD potential he has with the red zone giants he has to throw to. Both guys have illicited positive reviews in camp, but I just expect the Bucs to have a better offense than the Titans. I think the TD count for Jameis will be enough to offset the damage Mariota does on the ground, and I'm more likely to take a shot on Winston than Mariota in a 2QB league.

In dynasty leagues, I really like both guys, but I still give the edge to Jameis. Again, it mostly boils down to weapons. Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins give Winston two excellent targets who will be around a long time. Mariota gets Kendall Wright, who is a great possession WR, but the only physical freak target he has, Dorial Green-Beckham, is a huge question mark long-term due to off the field and maturity issues. Some would argue that Winston has some of those issues himself, and he probably does, but crab legs and public vulgarity and the sexual assault case are only part of the story with Winston. He's also a player who's been breaking down coverages since he was a kid watching NFL games on TV. Reading defenses and anticipating what they're doing is 2nd nature to Winston, and that is the single most important attribute to be a good NFL QB. While Mariota is a great leader with a high footbal IQ and electric running ability, I don't see that as enough to overcome his below-average situation and make him a better dynasty option than Jameis. The Titans have been one of the worst run franchises in the NFL.

RUNNING BACKS:

The rookie running back crop should have one clear-cut number 1 fantasy asset (and in dynasty leagues it does), and that guy is Todd Gurley. Unfortunately, due to a torn ACL last year at Georgia, his early season status is up in the air, opening the door for TJ Yeldon and Melvin Gordon to move ahead of him in re-draft formats. All three fall in the range from mid-RB2 to high RB3. There's still a very real chance that Gurley becomes a league-winner if he's back sooner than expected, but all signs point to him being eased back in to begin with. For me, Yeldon is #1 amongst the running backs in re-draft leagues. What separates him from Melvin Gordon is his 3-down role. Gordon is not good in the receiving game or in pass protection, two areas where Danny Woodhead excels, so he will likely lose touches in 3rd down situations while Yeldon will not. Yes, Gordon is in a better offense, but I still like Yeldon better. In dynasty leagues, I like Gurley at number one, but I still like Yeldon better than Gordon as I feel the Jaguars' offense will be ascending over the next couple seasons.

Beyond that trio, the next two rookie backs worth consideration in re-draft leagues are Ameer Abdullah and Tevin Coleman. For me, I much prefer Abdullah. His athleticism is off the charts, and the offensive coordinator in Detroit is the same guy who oversaw the Saints' offense that made dangerous multi-purpose weapons out of Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles. The Falcons' defense still isn't very good, so game flow might lead to less carries for Coleman. In dynasty leagues, if your league counts points for receptions, I'd even consider Abdullah ahead of Melvin Gordon despite Gordon's clear year one advantage.

As for the rest of th group, I would rank them in this order in re-draft: Matt Jones, David Cobb, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, and Jay Ajayi. Anyone who has watched the Redskins in the preseason has seen that they won't be very good. Alfred Morris gives them nothing in the passing game. Jones has been exceptional this preseason, and is likely to eventually replace Morris in the long-term. He'll have a nice role this year that should only increase going forward. Cobb is still looking at splitting work with Bishop Sankey in Tennessee, and while Sankey has looked improved thus far in the preseason, I still expect Cobb to be a factor. Duke and David Johnson both look tabbed for change-of-pace and some passing down work. I like Duke's situation better because his team looks more likely to play from behind. With Ajayi, although the Dolphins have refused to give Lamar Miller a full workload over the past couple years, Ajayi may have to work his way past Damien WIlliams to even get backup work.

Top dynasty RB options after the top 5 in order: Matt Jones, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Josh Robinson, Zach Zenner

WIDE RECEIVERS:

While the dynasty rankings at WR are bit up in the air, the re-draft ranks have a very clear top two guys: Amari Cooper and Nelson Agholor, and I prefer Agholor. The Eagles' offense is a juggernaut, and Agholor is ticketed for the role vacated by Jeremy Maclin's departure. The Raiders, meanwhile, are still trying to fight their way back to respectability. Both guys are legitimate borderline 2/3 WRs for this year, but I just like Agholor better because of the situation. Cooper could catch 90 balls this year, but Agholor won't be far behind and has much better TD potential. In dynasty leagues, it's a coin flip for me. I'd still prefer Agholor, but I think Cooper is slightly more talented.

The 2nd tier of rookie WRs in re-draft leagues consists of Devin Funchess, DeVante Parker, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Breshad Perriman, and I would draft them in that order. Funchess should be a legitimate WR3 with the upside for more in Kelvin Benjamin's role. Parker could be a WR3 if he's able to get himself healthy and carve out a role. It might take a few weeks for him to start making an impact as he battles back from a foot injury however. Green-Beckham might have the highest ceiling of any receiver in this class, but he has several red flags that make him a long-term risk. There's a clear path to DGB earning a big role in the Titans' passing game, but it's far from a certainty. As a result, Green-Beckham is a WR4 for this season, although he's being typically drafted lower than that. Breshad Perriman is also a WR4 this year, but due to his injury issues this preseason, he's a boom or bust option for this year. If healthy, he should be the number 2 WR on the Ravens after Steve Smith.

As for the rest of the WR class, the only other guys I'd strongly think about rostering in re-draft leagues are Tyler Lockett in Seattle and Ty Montgomery in Green Bay. There isn't much on the Seattle depth chart to overcome, and Lockett has been fantastic this preseason. He's a good WR5/6 option in PPR leagues who could really surprise.  Montgomery is worthy of WR 4/5 status just on the potential that he wins the WR3 job in an Aaron Rodgers offense. His dynasy outlook is hurt by the impending return of Jordy Nelson next season. Phillip Dorsett could make an impact in Indy, but he has to beat out Donte Moncrief for the third WR role to do so. Kevin White may miss the whole season in Chicago, and Devin Smith will open the season dinged up for the Jets. Neither is worth a draft pick in re-draft leagues. Jaelen Strong has a shot to earn a role with the Texans, but he's yet to make much of an impact in the preseason.

Top 12 Dynasty WRs in order: Nelson Agholor, Amari Cooper, Dorial Green-Beckham, DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman, Kevin White, Devin Funchess, Tyler Lockett, Phillip Dorsett, Jaelen Strong,Ty Montgomery, Darren Waller

Other names to know: DeAndre Smelter, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell

TIGHT ENDS:

The tight end position is typically useless in terms of rookie fantasy production, and this year looks to be about the same. The one rookie TE to be aware of is Maxx Williams in Baltimore. WIth Dennis Pitta still out and Owen Daniels gone to Denver, Williams will be expected to step in and play right away. I'd peg him as a low end TE2. I can't endorse banking on him to play a big role on your fantasy team. Outside of him, there isn't much. MyCole Pruitt might have a couple nice games in an H-Back role in Minnesota, but he isn't worth a draft pick, and Clive Walford could earn some meaningful playing time in Oakland, but that makes him maybe top-25 at the position.

Top 5 Dynasty TEs in order: Maxx Williams, MyCole Pruitt, Clive Walford, Tyler Kroft, Jesse James

That's it for the rookie preview. Hopefully it gives you a better grasp on who some of the guys are out there that you might not know much about if you don't watch much college football. Good luck with your fantasy drafts, and make sure to check back in each week for the Rookie Report to know what to do with your rookies on a weekly basis. And remember, have fun. Fantasy football is just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s fantasy championship week in most leagues. Everything is at stake. If the last two weeks have taught us anything, it’s that crazy things happen in the fantasy playoffs. How else do you explain the recent performances of Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Jordy Nelson and Josh Gordon? The list goes on and on. There were several on the good side as well like Jeremy Hill, Harry Douglas, and Tony Romo, but we always remember the guys who cost us a playoff win before the guys who won one for us. My only advice: Don’t get crazy with your lineup to match the craziness on the field. Let’s take a look at which rookies might help you bring home the trophy:

Rookies to Start:

RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): The Bengals finally get it and are giving this kid the rock a ton. He’s been great just about every time he’s been the lead back, clearing 140 rushing yards in 3 of those 5 contests and topping 80 with a score in another. The Broncos are a tough test, allowing just over 12 fantasy points to RBs each week, 4^th fewest in the league, but the volume and upside will make Hill a high-end RB2 with a chance for more.

RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Don’t let last Thursday’s 13-for-33 blip scare you. Mason has seen a ton of volume and put up some very respectable numbers since taking over the lead back role, and has only had one plus matchup so far. In that matchup he torched the Raiders for 164 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. He’s in line for a big day against the Giants’ porous run D, and is probably going to win someone their championship. He’s a strong RB2 play this week.

WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 16: @StL): If you need me to explain this, Odell’s not on your team. Moving on…

WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Joe Haden is questionable with injury this week, which should make life easier for Kelvin. You know what else makes Kelvin’s life easier? Having Derek Anderson at QB. In the 5 games that Anderson has played (either as starter or in relief of Cam), KB has averaged 6 catches for 90 yards and nearly a TD (0.8) per game, and also about 6 more fantasy points per week than games that DA doesn’t play. Feel comfortable getting him in there. His floor is higher with Anderson at the helm.

WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Evans had his worst game last week with just 2 catches for 13 yards, but he did manage to salvage his fantasy day with a TD. Don’t expect 2 down games in a row. The Packers will be eager to bully the Bucs after being a little embarrassed by their play in a loss to the Bills. Tampa should be playing from behind all day, and that means a lot of passes are going to go Evans’s way. He’s still a solid WR2 with a bunch of upside.

WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 16: @Was.): Matthews was a shocking no-show on the stat sheet last week against Dallas. It won’t happen again this week. The Redskins are stout up front against the run, but the back end is basically a row of turnstiles. Matthews should be in line for a really nice bounce back game and should be a safe WR3 for both standard and PPR formats.

WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Min.): Landry is coming off the best game of his career in terms of yards, and as usual is worth a start as a WR3 in PPR. He’s been remarkably consistent for a rookie, much more so than veteran teammate Mike Wallace. Landry has posted at least 6 catches and 50 yards in each of the last 4 contests, and 4 and 45 in 9 of his last 10. Add in that Xavier Rhodes will likely be matched up with Wallace, and there’s a lot to like here.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 16: @Mia.): It’s not a good matchup this week for Teddy, but he was a serviceable low-end QB2 against the Lions’ defense on Sunday, putting up over 300 yards and a score while adding 30 yards with his legs. I wouldn’t expect a repeat, but Teddy is the one rookie QB who has steadily gotten better as the year has progressed. He’s at least passable again as a lower-end QB2 this week.

RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 16: @Car.): Last week was a total let down for the Browns’ entire organization. Johnny Manziel fell flat on his face in his first start, the rest of the offense tanked with him, and they essentially knocked themselves out of the playoff race in the process. The scenario that puts the Browns in the playoffs literally requires a tie between the Chargers and Chiefs in week 17. This week, against a suddenly resurgent Panthers’ defense, the Browns’ offense will go as far as Johnny Football takes it. If he can’t provide a threat with his arm, it’ll be tough for any Browns to run the ball. Johnny’s running ability stresses the defense enough to open some running lanes, but the floor that we saw last week for this offense is scary. Crowell remains the better play of the two RBs, but both make for slightly dicey flex options.

RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 16: vs. SD): Reports out of San Francisco say it’ll take a miracle for Hyde to play this weekend,  but if he does he’ll be on the RB2 radar. Frank Gore appears to be out, so Hyde would start and likely be slated for 15-20 touches against a so-so Chargers’ defense. He wouldn’t be the safest play, but there would certainly be upside.

WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. KC): Three words: Boom or Bust. You know what he can do, and you know the risk. It’s up to you if you want to roll the dice or not. From a schematic standpoint, the Chiefs’ secondary isn’t as good without Eric Berry. Make of that what you will.

Rookies to Sit:

I’m going to do something a little different this week and point out the most obvious sits quickly, then dive into a couple tougher calls in more detail. For starters, avoid Blake Bortles and Derek Carr. We’ve seen enough of these guys to know a big game isn’t coming this week. Don’t be dumb and play Bishop Sankey. I know he’s playing the Jaguars. So what? We’ve been fooled too many times before. Devonta Freeman is getting a little more work lately, but not enough to be viable. Juwan Thompson showed what a 4-carry stat line should look like last week. His role won’t grow this week. Alfred Blue remains just a handcuff for Arian Foster owners. Davante Adams has topped 15 yards just once in the past 6 games. It’ll be the Jordy and Randall show again this week. John Brown’s quarterback will be Ryan Lindley. Don’t even think about him this week. Paul Richardson has been on the field a lot for Seattle, just not in the box score very much. Also, please avoid all 3 notable rookie tight ends suiting up this week. Jace Amaro, Eric Ebron, and Richard Rodgers all have been far too mediocre in terms of production to be trusted in the biggest week of the year. Now let’s take a closer look at a few other rooks to bench:

QB Johnny Manziel, CLE (Wk. 16: @Car.): I know, this one seems obvious, but I’m sure there are some people tempted to try him again. He does have tantalizing athleticism. That doesn’t mean it’ll translate onto the NFL field.

RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 16: @StL.): Williams looks like a good bet to start the rest of the way for the G-Men, so he’ll get good volume this week, but the Rams’ run defense has been really solid lately. Williams also hasn’t been the most efficient runner in the league, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. He put up just 44 yards on 18 runs against Washington last week, and I’d expect a similar output this week.

RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 16 @SF): Ryan Mathews looks to miss another game this week, so Oliver should see a lot of work, but I doubt the 49ers have thrown in the towel despite being eliminated from playoff contention last week. I’d be surprised if they surrender 70 yards to Oliver like the Broncos did last week. Oliver got most of that yardage in the passing game, and I think a repeat is unlikely. 70 yards from scrimmage is Oliver’s 3^rd highest total of the year.

WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 16: @Oak.): I know it’s wild to sit a guy with the type of ability Watkins has with the season on the line, but the production just hasn’t been there. He’s been held under 40 yards in 5 of his last 6 games and even his coaches are worried that he might be hitting the rookie wall. The Raiders’ defense has been surprisingly good against WRs, surrendering the 3^rd fewest points to them in the league. There’s upside here, but not enough to offset the risk in my opinion.

WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Ten.): Although Lee’s poor week 15 showing was more a result of poor QB play than anything he did, he ended the day with his arm in a sling. I’d say that hampers his outlook this week, and it isn’t like Bortles is going to suddenly get more accurate. Lee is a fringe option when things are perfect, and this week they aren’t.

Deep League Sleepers:

RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Martin is back in the saddle as starter, but Sims still is the best back the Bucs have in the passing game, and passing is something they’ll be doing a lot of this week. The increased work should bump Sims from obvious bench player to a sneaky PPR flex option in deep leagues.

WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 16: @Dal.): The future is really bright for Moncrief, but the Colts seem stuck in the past. They continue to trot out inferior football players (T-Rich, Fleener, and the old and injured Reggie Wayne) instead of guys like Boom Herron, Dwayne Allen and Moncrief. I really feel like Moncrief is going to break out again in one of these final two games, but I don’t know which one it’ll be. He’s a fun roll of the dice in deeper leagues this week. It’s possible the Colts lean more his way now that Wayne has set the Colts’ record for career games played. Reggie has battled through a torn triceps lately to set that record.

WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Ten.): Hurns is coming off a 6-for-70 game last week, and he’s a decent bet for similar production this week with Lee dinged up. Is he going to win you your week? No, but he likely won’t kill you either.

WR Albert Wilson, KC (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Wilson has been coming on strong lately with Donnie Avery sidelined, putting up 122 yards over the past 2 weeks and earning Alex Smith’s trust. Not many WRs can do that. The Steelers allow almost 24 WR fantasy points per week, so you’d think someone in this group of wide outs will take advantage. My money would be on Wilson. He’s an interesting WR3/flex option in really deep leagues.

That’s it for this week. I’ll do a quick column next week in case your championship game is in week 17. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.