I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! As the fantasy regular season winds down, hopefully you've got yourself well positioned for a playoff spot. It was a big week for some rookies, with Devin Funchess tallying his first TD and Dorial Green-Beckham finally getting a starter's share of the snaps (even if it took an injury to Kendall Wright to get them). Amari Cooper and Todd Gurley continued their usual excellence, and Karlos Williams returned to action in a big way. Let's talk about what week 10 should have in store...
Rookies to Start:
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 10: vs. Chi.): If you own him, you know you're starting him, but he should be worth his price tag in daily fantasy games as well. The Bears allow 121 rushing yards a game and 4.6 yards per carry. They do a good job limiting TDs (just 2 rushing scores allowed all year), but Gurley is a good bet to top the century mark this week and I think he finds the end zone as well despite how few the Bears have allowed.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 10: @Oak.): Diggs didn't do a lot last week against the Rams, but he should be much better this week. The matchup is much softer. The Raiders don't allow a ton of WR touchdowns (just 4 on the year), but they do allow 16.7 catches and 221 yards per game to them. Diggs gets easily the most volume of the Vikings WRs, and he likely will get around 10 targets and should be safe to fire up as a WR2 this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): The Cowboys have been pretty solid against quarterbacks all year, allowing just 9 passing scores in 8 games and about 240 yards per game, but Jameis has shown a really safe floor. With at least 12 points scored each week, he should be a safe QB2 this week in 2 quarterback leagues, albeit one with limited upside.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 10: @StL.): If Matt Forte is out again, volume should keep Langford on the RB2 radar despite a tough matchup. If you have strong options to play over Langford, go for it. The Rams have allowed just 2 offensive TDs in 4 home games this year. While Langford should get a bunch of work, he'll be a long shot to find the end zone. If Forte is a go, Langford shouldn't be near your lineup.
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 10: @Bal.): Yeldon was having a rough game in week 9, but broke a long 4th quarter run that bailed his day out. With that said, his volume remains consistent. The Ravens have been tough on opposing rushers, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and just 4 RB touchdowns on the season, but that volume keeps Yeldon in the RB2 discussion. I'd expect him to tally somewhere around 8 points in standard leagues this week.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Jones hasn't produced much lately, but he's definitely running ahead of Alfred Morris right now. Jones had 11 carries in week 9, Alf has 10 total in the last 2 games, and he's turned them into just 15 yards. This is a plus matchup for RBs. The Saints allow 105 rush yards per game to opposing backs, and even with Chris Thompson back this week, Jones should get 12-15 carries. That makes him a realistic flex option this week with byes and all of the RB injuries around the league right now.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Duke has a similar outlook this week to what he has every other week. He remains firmly on the PPR flex radar. He's a better option if Josh McCown starts at QB. The Steelers allow the 3rd fewest RB fantasy points, but they also allow almost 5 catches and 42 receiving yards per game to RBs.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Cooper is pretty close to a must-start at this point based on volume and upside, but there are some red flags this week. He's a little dinged up with a quad injury. He's alternated games with a TD and without, and he's due for no TD this week. The matchup isn't ideal, as the Vikings are in the top 10 teams in the league at limiting WR fantasy points. Also, Cooper and Crabtree almost never go off in the same week, and Cooper is the one who usually gets the defense's focus. Week 9 was the second time all year that both receivers finished in the top-24 at the position in fantasy points. It all adds up to Cooper being a little dicier this week than most, and certainly not someone to target in DFS.
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. NO): I was worried Crowder's role would be reduced with the return of DeSean Jackson, but he caught 6 passes for 50 yards in week 9. Hopefully it's a sign that things won't change with D-Jax back. He's got 8+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games, and at least 4 catches in each of the last 6 (6 rec./gm on average). He's got a plus matchup this week and should be a WR3 option in PPR leagues. His floor this week should be 5 catches and 50 yards.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Mariota is coming off one of his best days as a pro in week 9 against the Saints, but the Saints are the worst QB defense in the league and he gets a much stiffer test this week. Don't read much into Aaron Rodgers fantasy bonanza in week 9 against these Panthers. That was an outlier game. If you throw out week 9, Carolina is allowing just 12.3 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which would be good for 3rd lowest in the league behind Denver and St. Louis. Don't chase last week's points here. He's nothing more than a desperation 2QB league play.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 10: @NYJ): Earlier in the week I was planning on listing Karlos as a guy to start, but as the week has gone on it's become clear that Shady McCoy will play Thursday night. Karlos was tremendous in his return to action last week (9 carries for 110 yards and 2 TDs), and he now has a TD in every game he's played in and is the overall RB21 for the season despite missing 3 games, but I think the TD streak ends this week. The Jets allow just 10.6 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, and most of the work should go to McCoy. Keep Karlos under wraps this week.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 10: @GB): The Packers have been good against RBs, and Abdullah's role shrunk in the first game with Jim Bob Cooter in as offensive coordinator. Joique Bell is getting the early down work and Theo Riddick the passing down work. The game script doesn't set up well in this game either. The Packers are an 11-point favorite and haven't lost to the Lions at home in the last 20 meetings. Keep Abdullah benched.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 10: @Sea.): Nothing new to report on Johnson. He remains the 3rd banana in this run game behind CJ2K and Ellington. Even though he's seeing some red zone work, the Seahawks allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league. This isn't the spot to pick to use a guy with very limited volume.
RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Cobb will be activated from the short-term IR this week and should see at least a couple carries, but the bulk of th work this week should go to Antonio Andrews. Andrews has been good in the past 2 games and earned more work. Cobb will eventually factor in, and could be worth a stash in deeper leagues, but you aren't considering him this week.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Big surprise here...another Titan rookie I'm telling you to sit. This is the worst possible week for DGB to draw Josh Norman. The Panthers should deploy their top cover man on Green-Beckham. Dorial had a breakthrough in week 9 with Kendall Wright sidelined, seeing double-digit targets and pulling in 5 of them for 77 yards (both career highs). Wright is likely to be out again, but I don't like the chances of DGB continuing his breakout this week. He has the talent to start producing in tough matchups, but for now I'm giving Norman the benefit of the doubt.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): Agholor should finally return from a high ankle sprain, and the matchup is a good one, but Nelson hasn't done anything yet this year. It would be a pretty big leap of faith to think that this is the week he starts producing, even though the Eagles' offense is playing much better than it was when he got hurt. There is a chance that things click for Agholor at some point in the second half and the fantasy points start coming, but it hasn't happened yet. At most he's a deep league flyer right now.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. Ari.): Lockett is still in play for leagues that count return yardage. His passing game involvement was increasing before the bye last week (8 catches for 115 yards and a TD in the last 2 games), but the Cardinals are a tough matchup. I hope his role continues to grow, but this isn's a good spot to fire him up.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 10: @Phi.): I wouldn't get Ajayi into the lineup this week, but I wanted to mention him as a deep league flyer to scoop off the waiver wire. He debuted last week and was impressive, gaining 41 yards on just 5 carries. Lamar Miller isn't going away, but the coaching staff admitted that Ajayi earned more work with his performance. If anything were to happen to Miller, Ajayi would get a huge boost in value. He's definitely surpassed Damien Williams and Jonas Gray on the depth chart, and will see change of pace work for now.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Funchess finally broke through last week with a 3-71-1 line, and he gets a favorable matchup again this week. Don't go too crazy here. He's still running behind Ginn, Cotchery and Corey Brown in terms of snap count, so the floor is really low, but he could be a decent punt play in DFS tournaments.
WR Adam Humphries, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Humpries is taking advantage of the absence of Vincent Jackson. He posted a 5-55 line in week 9, and it seems likely that Jackson is out again in week 10. The matchup isn't great, but Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (if he returns) would draw a lot of the defensive attention. There is some upside for a nice PPR day out of Humphries.
TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Walford is a TD dart throw in this game, with the upside for a little bit more. His quarterback likes him, he has 2 scores in the past 3 games, and the Vikings have given up at least 30 TE receiving yards in all but one game this year. If you're desperate for a TE streamer, you could do worse than Walford this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps with some of your lineup decisions. If you have any questions or complaints, you can reach out and let me know on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Rookie Report: Week 9
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 8 was a brutal one with one season-ending injury after another. Hopefully your fantasy team survived unscathed, and hopefully your waiver position will allow you to pick up D'Angelo Williams. He'll be a top 15-RB the rest of the way. This isn't a waiver wire column, but there may be a few rookies who will prove worthy of a pick up over the next few weeks. Let's dive into what to expect in week 9, and I'll throw in a few rooks in the sleeper section who may be worth a flyer (Any fantasy point totals listed are based on ESPN standard scoring)...
Rookies to Start:
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 9: @Min.): With the way Gurley is running, you have to throw out the matchup in this one. The Vikings have been strong against opposing RBs since struggling against Carlos Hyde in week 1 (10 fantasy points per game for opposing RBs since), but Gurley's breakout started against the Cardinals, who have allowed just 11 RB points per game aside from the Rams game. The Vikings also allow 4.4 yards per carry, which is hardly impressive. Gurley should have success again.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 9: @SD): Matt Forte will likely be out for the next couple of weeks, and Langford should step into a major role at just the right time. He's the next best waiver add after D'Angelo this week if you can get him. He faces the Chargers, who have been awful against running backs...like worst in the league awful. The Chargers allow 5 yards per carry, 124 rushing yards per game, and have given up 8 rushing scores in 8 games. They've also given up an extra 450 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs to RBs. Langford should at least be a passable RB2 in this plum matchup.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Cooper should find the sledding easier this week after a rough go last week against the Jets. The Steelers do allow fewer WR points than the Jets, but thanks to Darrelle Revis, the Jets limit WR1s much more effectively than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is fresh off allowing an 11-118-1 line to AJ Green last Sunday. Cooper is safe to fire up this week as a WR3. The floor this week should be higher than his final numbers against the Jets.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Jameis is starting to look like the number 1 pick he's supposed to be. He's put up at least 12 fantasy points in each start this season, despite struggling with turnovers early on in the year. He may have recently turned a corner. He hasn't thrown a pick in his last 3 starts, and has scored 19 points in each of the last two. This week, he gets the Giants, who allow a league-high 315 yards passing and just over 2 passing scores per game. They're also fresh off giving up 7 TDs to Drew Brees. With that said, they've also picked off 13 passes on the year. I'd expect Jameis to throw his first INT in 4 games this week, but there is also a ton of upside. He should be on the low-end QB1 radar.
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 9: @NO): Mariota seems to be on track to play this week, and he gets to face the defense that allows the most fantasy points to QBs in the league. The Saints have allowed a league-high 20 TDs through the air, and an additional 2 QB rushing scores. With Ken Whisenhunt gone, things might get better for Mariota. Interim head coach Mike Mularkey has vowed to tweak the offense to better suit Mariota's strengths. That should mean more running attempts, which would bump his floor up in a matchup that already has a high ceiling. Like Jameis, he's on the QB1 radar this week. I'd prefer Winston over Mariota since Jameis has a higher floor, but both are interesting streaming options.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): This actually isn't a bad spot for Gordon. He's been watching Danny Woodhead light it up in garbage time, but the Bears allow 128 rushing yards per game. They haven't allowed many long runs, and just two rushing TDs, but with Keenan Allen out the Chargers are likely to try to get the run game going more. This game sets up for Gordon to have RB2 upside.
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Yeldon has been coming into his own recently, scoring 13 points per game in his last 3 outings, but he hasn't faced a defense like the Jets in that stretch. The Jets have allowed more than 6 points to opposing RBs just twice all season. Volume makes TJ an RB2/flex option this week, but not a great one.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Duke managed a decent day yet again last week, and he did so despite just a few touches. His value isn't going anywhere. He remains a decent PPR flex play week in and week out, and coach Mike Pettine expressed this week that he knows Duke needs more touches. Isaiah Crowell and Robert Turbin have been an unimpressive tandem.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 9: vs. StL.): Diggs isn't an automatic start this week against a tough Rams' secondary, but he's not a guy to avoid either. I would ride the hot streak while it lasts. He's the clear number one receiver for Minnesota right now, and the Rams should make it tough to get the running game going. Good passing attacks have had success against the Rams. I don't know if I'd classify the Vikes' attack as good, so Diggs is more WR3 than WR2 this week.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 9: @NE): I think there's a chance Jones has a nice game, and I expect him to still see more work than Alfred Morris, but he will lose passing down work to Chris Thompson and Washington is likely to be playing from behind for most of the game. Those factors make him too risky to play this week. He's averaged just 3 fantasy points per game in his past 5 games.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): You should hold onto Williams in deeper leagues if you have the room, but a healthy LeSean McCoy saps some of his value. There will be some decent games down the stretch. Karlos tallied 50 fantasy points in the first 4 games of the season before suffering a concussion, and he did so on limited touches. Unfortunately it will be tough to tell which weeks will be the productive ones. If anything happens to Shady, Karlos is instantly a starting caliber RB, but for now he belongs on the bench.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 9: @Dal.): Agholor should be back on the field this week, but that's not a reason for him to be in your lineup. There is upside this week, but he would have to show some production before you can consider putting him in the lineup.
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 9: @NE): With D-Jax and Chris Thompson returning this week, it'll be Crowder's targets that will take the biggest hit. Even with a plus matchup against a bottom-10 WR defense, Crowder is a dicey PPR WR4 this week.
WR Ty Montgomery, GB (Wk. 9: @Car.): Pretty simple here. Davante Adams is back, Montgomery is banged up, and the Panthers are a really tough matchup for any WR. Steer clear this week.
TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Nothing to see here this week. The Steelers may allow the 4th most points to opposing TEs, but the majority of the points they allowed were to Gronk and Antonio Gates. If you throw out the games against New England and San Diego, the Steelers have allowed just 4 points per game to opposing TEs, which would be good for 3rd fewest in the NFL. Walford will eventually get more involved, but it likely won't be this week.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bryce Petty, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. Jax.): Ryan Fitzpatrick has torn ligaments in his non-throwing hand, and Geno Smith got banged up in relief of Fitz. It's a long shot, but there's a chance that they are forced to go to Petty this week. He played in a spread passing attack in college, so he may be okay in Chan Gailey's scheme. He does have a decent matchup. The Jaguars allow the 8th most fantasy points per game to QBs. If you're in a pickle in a 2 QB league and Petty gets tabbed to start...he might be worth a shot.
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 9: @SF): This is just a hunch...This game could get ugly. The 49ers are a dumpster fire right now. Why would the Falcons want to risk getting Freeman injured if they get comfortably ahead early? There is a strong chance for plenty of Coleman garbage time in this one. He could be a fun cheap option in DFS tournaments.
RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 9: @NO): Cobb may be poised to be activated from short-term IR this week, and his timing likely couldn't be better. You can't confidently start him this week, but there is hardly a clear lead back on the Titans at this point. Antonio Andrews had his best game of the season last week, but with the coaching change there should be an opportunity for Cobb to carve out a role. He's an intriguing deep league pickup who could provide solid value in the 2nd half of the season.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 9: @NO): I'm sure DGB isn't unhappy to see Whisenhunt go. Just a week ago, the former coach said he was in no hurry to make Green-Beckham a bigger part of the offense. That should change with Mularkey in charge. If he has any designs on shedding the interim tag, he should be getting the most talented players on the field more. I've mentioned Green-Beckham before, and he has struggled to break through, but this is as good a spot as any. The Saints have allowed 13 WR TDs on the season.
WR Justin Hardy, ATL (Wk. 9: @SF): Much like Tevin Coleman, Hardy could benefit from the mess that is the 49ers. It sounds like there is a real chance Leonard Hankerson is out again, and Hardy caught two passes in his pro debut last week. If Hank is out again, I think Hardy could be in line for 5+ catches in a game with plenty of playing time for the backups.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you overcome some byes and injuries, and helps you make some of those tougher lineup decisions. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me (@shawn_foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're 7 weeks in, and there are an NFL record FIVE unbeaten teams remaining entering week 8...hopefully your fantasy team is in the same kind of shape as the Panthers, Broncos, Bengals, Pariots and Packers. I was right on a few rookies last week (Diggs, Gurley, Lockett, Jameis, Gordon), and wrong on a couple others (Amari, Yeldon). I've learned to stop doubting Cooper at this point. Twice this season I've felt like the matchup wasn't in his favor (against Baltimore and against San Diego), and those have been his two best games of the year. This past week was especially impressive. A lot of elite receivers have struggled with Jason Verrett and the Chargers. With last week in the books, let's move on to week 8...
Rookies to Start:
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Gurley continued his domination tour last week, and you really can't sit him right now with how well he's running. If you need any deeper reasoning...the 49ers allow the 7th most points to opposing running backs and were shredded for 156 yards and a TD by a physical Seahawks run game in week 7. Teams who have committed to the run against the 49ers have had success, and you know the Rams will be committed to it. Gurley has RB1 upside again this week.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): As I said in the intro, I'm done doubting Amari. The matchup again isn't great, not as bad as you'd think on paper, but Cooper should still see some Darrelle Revis coverage. With that said, Cooper has come through in tough matchups this year and can't be benched unless you have 3 stud WRs to play over him.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 8: @Chi.): Can Diggs make it 3 big games in a row? I'm guessing he can. He's clearly moved ahead of Charles Johnson on the depth chart, and the Bears give up more WR points than any team not named 'Chiefs' or 'Ravens.' The Bears have allowed 3 or more WR touchdowns in 3 of their 6 games this season. Diggs is a really good bet to find the end zone again this week, and is the best WR on the Vikings right now. He's a borderline WR2/3 this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 8: @Hou.): This is an interesting matchup for Mariota. On the season, the Texans' defense has been better against QBs at home than on the road (16.7 fantasy points per game allowed at home vs. 21.8 on the road), but they've been especially bad overall the last two weeks, allowing 627 yards and 7 TDs combined to Blake Bortles and Ryan Tannehill. There is also the question of where this team is mentally after losing Arian Foster for the season in an embarrassing loss in which they trailed 41-0 at one point. It looks like Marcus will be able to play this week, and if he does, he could shred the Texans. He's worth consideration as a high-end QB2 or as a streamer if your QB is on a bye.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 8: @Bal.): Last week was a rough one for Gordon owners. It looked like his benching from week 6 carried over into week 7, but the fact that he got on the field as they tried to mount a furious rally to get back in the game hopefully means he'll be back out there this week. Unfortunately, he has limited upside this week in a matchup that should favor the pass game. The Ravens have allowed just 3 RB rushing scores this year and only 2 100-yard rushers despite playing from behind several weeks during their 1-6 start. I'd think long and hard before trusting Gordon as anything more than a deep league flex this week.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Ari.): This is another tough matchup for Duke, but he's been producing lately in tough matchups. In the last 3 weeks, Johnson has faced the Ravens, Broncos and Rams, and he's averaged 5.3 catches and 74.3 scrimmage yards per game, and had at least 8 PPR points in each game. Over his last 5 contests, he's tallied at least 6 catches in 4 of them, and the Cardinals have allowed 46 RB receptions on the season. only the Falcons have allowed more than 48 on the season. Duke should be a decent PPR flex option once again despite facing a top-7 RB defense.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 8: @Atl.): The Falcons have been the 5th best defense in the NFL against opposing QBs, but that ranking doesn't tell the whole story. Atlanta has allowed a robust 280 passing yards per game, but they've limited opposing signal-callers to an 8-8 TD:INT ratio in 7 games. Winston has already shown that he's going to throw some picks this year, but with the weapons he has, a multiple TD game isn't out of the question. I wouldn't dare start him in a one QB league (I'd rather start the Atlanta defense), but he should be a low-end QB2 this week with some upside.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 8: @KC): Nothing I've seen from Abdullah would make me feel good about playing him this week. Abdullah has yet to rush for more than 50 yards in a game, and his passing down work is now going to Theo Riddick and even Joique Bell, who had 3 catches last week to Abdullah's zero. While the Chiefs have been bad against opposing WRs, they've done a much better job limiting opposing RBs, ranking in the top-10 against the position. With Joique back in action, the backfield situation is just too muddled to roll Abdullah out there this week. Add in a new offensive coordinator and there is even less clarity on what to expect this week.
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 8: @Dal.): As mentioned last week, with Lynch back at full strength, there isn't enough volume to go around for Rawls to be start-able. He did see more work in week 7 than the 1 carry he got in week 6 (6 car. for 32 yds, 2 catches for 9 yds), but 9 touches aren't enough to rely on Rawls in season-long leagues. The Cowboys are bad at stopping opposing RBs, but you should have better options on the roster.
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. TB): Much like Rawls, there isn't enough volume to trust Coleman. With the emergence of Devonta Freeman, Coleman hasn't had more than 4 touches in a game since returning from his rib injury. He's purely a handcuff for Freeman in re-draft leagues at this point, and in Dynasty you almost have to hope he changes teams at some point. The Freeman breakout is for real.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 8: @Dal.): On the road against a bad run defense, expect heavy doses of Marshawn Lynch in this game. Lockett had a really nice game last week with his first receiving touchdown, but I have a feeling it's someone else's turn this week. The Seahawks employ a WR-by-committee approach, and Doug Baldwin, Ricardo Lockette and Jermaine Kearse are just as likely as Tyler to make an impact. I'd avoid Lockett (no E) this week.
WR Ty Montgomery, GB (Wk. 8: @Den.): With a season-high of just 59 receiving yards, Montgomery has needed to find the end zone to have productive weeks. Denver has allowed just one WR touchdown all season long. While having Aaron Rodgers as your QB gives you a better chance than most, Montgomery is still not a good bet to score a TD this week. He is also battling a high ankle sprain suffered before the bye week.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 8: @Hou.): This would be a prime week for the Titans to get DGB going. It would be, if Coach Whiz had any interest in getting him involved. Whisenhunt stated this week that he's in no hurry to increase the rookie's workload, and as such, you can't start Dorial until you see his target count start to come up.
WR Chris Conley, KC (Wk. 8: vs. Det.): Conley had a really nice game in week 7, pulling in 6 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown starting in place of the injured Jeremy Maclin, but Maclin is almost certain to be back this week. That means Conley goes back to the bench. The Lions are a juicy matchup for WRs, but in the 4 games prior to week 7, Conley averaged 1.75 catches and 23 yards per contest. At 6-3, he's the big receiver the Chiefs sorely need, so his future is bright. He should be rostered in dynasty formats and should pass Albert Wilson on the depth chart by the start of next season.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 8: @Cle.): I can't recommend starting Johnson in season-long leagues this week since he's really only promised a handful of touches, but he could be an interesting punt play in DFS tournaments. We've seen him be very productive with limited touches earlier in the season, and while that has proven unsustainable, this matchup is the perfect one for him to strike again. The Browns allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing RBs in the league.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): Much like Johnson, this doesn't mean you can start him in season-long leagues. He's still yet to eclipse 2 catches in a game and is working behind Ted Ginn and Philly Brown. Despite that, I think there is some upside here for Funchess as a DFS punt play (again, like David Johnson). The Colts' defense has been shoddy against opposing WRs, allowing them 9 TDs in 7 games, and over 150 yards in 6 of those 7 games. He's still a long shot, but if Carolina gets in close, Ginn and Brown simply aren't the matchup problem Funchess is. There is legitimate TD potential for Funchess here.
TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Walford is not startable yet in season-long leagues, but I wanted to mention him as a dynasty league add if he's available. He's made a couple of big plays in the last two weeks and put up a 3-75-1 line in those two contests. He should be passing Mychal Rivera on the depth chart soon, and Derek Carr really likes him. Carr said before last week's game that he thinks Walford has a chance to be a 'special' player in this league. That kind of praise is worth a dynasty roster spot.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you set the lineup this week. Always make sure to fit these suggestions to your league rules and your roster, and feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or just want to yell at me (@shawn_foss). As always...Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This season seems to get stranger by the week. What’s wrong with the Seahawks? What exactly constitutes a catch? Can the Saints get back in the NFC playoff picture? Is someone going to go undefeated?...I’m not going to talk about any of these things. Instead, I’ll dive into the breakout week of Stefon Diggs, the continued disappearing act of Melvin Gordon, and the health status of Matt Jones, TJ Yeldon, and Marcus Mariota, and also what you should do with your rookies for week 7. Let’s dig in….
Rookies to Start:
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Gurley is the only rookie I can confidently recommend starting this week. He was a terror on opposing defenses for the last 2 games before the bye, and now he gets to face a Browns team that has allowed an NFL-high 789 rush yards to opposing RBs and the 4th most fantasy points per game to the position. Gurley will get the rock a ton, and has easy RB1 upside in a plus-plus matchup. Get him in there this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Mariota is confident that he will play this week, but I’m not. If he does suit up, I think he’s due for a bit of a turnaround game. The Falcons have allowed just a 7:6 TD:INT ratio for the season, but they’ve also allowed over a 65% completion percentage and over 295 passing yards per game on the season. I think he’ll find some success throwing against a Falcons’ team that hasn’t been quite as good as their 5-1 record would make you think. He should be a decent QB2 option if he plays, and a sleeper QB1 in really deep leagues. Several starting QBs have tough matchups or byes this week (Rodgers, Bradford, Dalton, Bortles, McCown, Kaep). I know they aren’t all big names, but all have been productive at points this year.
RB Melvin Gordon, OAK (Wk. 7: vs. Oak.): I'd lean toward sitting Gordon this week after he was benched for fumbling last week. He failed to break out against two bad run defenses in Cleveland and Green Bay this year, and this week he gets a decent one. The Raiders have allowed just 3 RB TDs all year, and 14.2 fantasy points per game. I'd expect the Chargers to go back to Gordon this week despite the benching, but there might not be much upside.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 7: @StL.): Duke remains an intriguing PPR option. The Rams have a strong defensive front vs. the run, but they've averaged giving up 6 catches and 55 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs. Johnson will remain very involved in the game plan and could be a really solid PPR flex play once again.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. TB): Keep an eye on Jones's health this week. This could be the most positive game script Jones has seen in weeks. Washington is a 3-point favorite, and Tampa is allowing 105 RB rush yards per game and have give up 4 rushing TDs. I think Washington will actually be able to establish the ground game this week, and I like Jones better than Alfred Morris as long as he's able to play.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 7: @SD): You are likely playing Cooper if you have him, but this is not a week to run him out there in DFS. He saw just 4 targets in a tough matchup with the Broncos before the bye, and this week he gets to tangle with Jason Verrett, who has yet to allow more than 2 completions in any game on passes thrown into his coverage. Number one receivers Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Randall Cobb, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown have all failed to record 50 rec. yards and none had more than 3 catches against San Diego. That isn’t a fluke. I wouldn’t be optimistic for Amari in week 7.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 7: @Det.): Diggs has done enough to warrant more work over the past 2 games. He may have surpassed Charles Johnson on the depth chart while CJ's been out with a rib injury. The Vikings' offense centers around AP running it, so the volume won't be consistent for Diggs, but the matchup this week is juicy. The Lions allow 15 catches and over 200 yards per week to WRs, and Diggs has been the most effective Viking WR this season. He's a better play if Johnson is out again, but still in the WR3 discussion even if Johnson plays.
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. TB): DeSean Jackson is unlikely to play again this week, and Crowder has seen at least 6 targets in 4 straight games, and at least 8 in 3 straight. Jordan Reed seems likely to play this week, which could cut into Crowder's targets, but I'd still expect him to be good for at least 5 catches and is a decent PPR WR3 option. The Bucs allow the 5th most WR fantasy points per gm.
Rookies to Sit:
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): You might not have any better options with how thin the RB position has been this year, but this week doesn't set up well for TJ. He might not even play due to injury, and if he does play, he might be competing for touches with the now healthy Denard Robinson. Yeldon hasn't been very efficient with a lot of volume, and this week's matchup is tougher than it looks on paper. The Bills are middle of the road vs. opposing RBs, but they've held the opposition under 50 RB rush yards 3 times in 6 games. The Jaguars might make it 4 of 7. I'd steer clear of Yeldon if you can.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): Johnson finally showed what should happen when you only get 4 touches in a game. He had been scoring touchdowns weekly with very few touches, and this week it finally caught up with him as he turned his 4 touches into 17 scoreless yards. The Ravens have been stingy to opposing RBs, allowing just 14 ppg to them each week, and DJ still is fighting with CJ2K and Ellington for touches.
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 7: @Ten.): The matchup is better for Coleman than it looks on paper, but unless something happens to Devonta Freeman, the workload won’t be large enough for Coleman to be worth playing him. He did manage 40 yards on 4 carries last week, and he’s got home run potential, but to bank on him producing with single-digit touches would be a desperation play. Leave him benched.
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 7: @SF): Rawls got just one carry last week with Marshawn back at full strength. He’d be a threat to get more work if the Seahawks blow this game open, but the 49ers have been playing well in primetime games (win over MIN and last minute loss to NYG) and the Seahawks haven’t looked like themselves, blowing 4th quarter leads in all 4 of their losses this year. Don’t look for much work for Rawls in this one.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 7: @Jax.): It's unlikely that Williams plays yet again as he battles back from a concussion, and Shady McCoy re-established himself in week 6 with a big game. If Karlos is able to go, he'll likely see just a few change of pace carries unless it's a blowout, making him a TD dice roll. It's not a gamble I'd want to take. Editor's Note: Karlos Williams was removed from this list, since he didn't make the trip to London with his team.
RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 7: @Ari.): This is a tough matchup, and Forsett has emerged as the workhorse in the Ravens’ backfield again since Taliaferro went on the IR. Forsett has had 24 or more touches in each of the last 3 games while Allen has totaled 18 touches. Allen needs a Forsett injury to be relevant in most leagues.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 7: @Car.): Agholor should be back from injury this week, but he gets a brutal matchup in the return. If he plays, he will likely see a bunch of Carolina’s top CB Josh Norman, who has been one of the league’s top cover guys thus far in 2015. Agholor hasn’t been lighting up the stat sheet in plus matchups. Why play him in a really bad one?
WR Devin Smith, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): After his inefficient performances in his first two games, Smith ran behind fellow rookie Quincy Enunwa in week 6 and saw zero targets. He’ll have to work his way back up to be an option in any leagues. Enunwa is also not worth starting this week.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): His volume increased in week 6, seeing a season-high 6 targets last week, but he did drop a couple of them and tallied just 2 catches. Until he develops some consistency, his targets won't increase much. Keep him sidelined again this week.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Parker had zero targets in the Dolphins’ first game under interim coach Dan Campbell. I wouldn’t expect much to change for him this week in a tougher matchup.
WRs Keith Mumphery and Jaelen Strong, HOU (Wk. 7: @Mia.): With Cecil Shorts back last week, Mumph and Strong combined for just 5 targets against the Jaguars. They had twice that many with Shorts and Nate Washington both out the week before. Shorts will be out again this week, but Washington is expected back. With DeAndre Hopkins soaking up all the targets he can handle, there isn’t enough to go around to the 3rd and 4th WRs in the pecking order, even in a plus matchup.
TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 7: @Ari.): With Crockett Gillmore back from injury, Williams is an afterthought in the pass game. He has just 5 catches for 24 yards in the past 2 weeks. Leave him sitting.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 7: @Was.): Jameis's transition to the NFL hasn't exactly been smooth, but he may have some sneaky upside this week against a Washington defense that has allowed a 9:3 TD:INT ratio in 6 games. They've allowed less than 240 pass yards per game, but they haven't played with a ton of leads and teams aren't throwing on them late very often. There won't be many DBs in this matchup that can cover V-Jax or Mike Evans, and ASJ may return as well. This could be a good week to take a chance on Winston in a 2 QB league or as a DFS punt option.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): I think this is the week that the Lions get the run game going. It might be Joique Bell, it might be Abdullah. Ameer has had issues with fumbles this season, but the Lions did put him back in the game late vs. the Bears. For the season, the Vikings have allowed the 7th fewest points to opposing RBs, but that doesn't tell the whole story. At home, Minnesota has given up just 153 rush yards and zero TDs to RBS, but on the road they've allowed 335 yards and 3 TDs in 2 games, as well as 4.5 yards per rush on the season. I have a hunch that either Abdullah or Bell has a nice game, I'm just not sure which one.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 7: @SF): San Francisco gives up heaps of fantasy points to opposing WRs, and the Seahawks don't have a WR who stands out as the obvious guy who will score them. That makes Lockett an interesting really cheap DFS option. He's always a threat to score a return TD, and someone on this team will score some points. Why not Lockett? Don't read much into the 2 targets he had last week. No Seahawk WR had more than 4 in that game, and Lockett had 5 in each of the two games before that. Is that a lot of volume? No, but if he gets 5 targets and takes a kick or punt to the house? DFS Gold.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough lineup decisions with some big bye weeks upon us. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you want to say nice things or call me an idiot (@shawn_foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.