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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Draft week is upon us, and for those of us in Dynasty leagues, this certainly doesn't count as 'offseason.' Scouting and staying on top of the NFL rookies is a critical part of the league year, and while landing spots for the top rookies are pretty important, I still like to go into the draft with an idea of who I think the best players are at each fantasy position. With that in mind, here is my pre-draft breakdown of the players to keep an eye out for as you see the drafted names scroll by this weekend. At each of the main fantasy positions, I'll list my top prospects, as well as a couple sleepers of mine and a couple of popular sleepers I think are overhyped. Alright, enough intro...let's dive in:

Quarterbacks:

It's become pretty apparent as we head into the draft that the top two overall picks will be QBs, but I think there are 3 that stand out over the rest. The quarterback position is one where the vast majority of successful NFL starters were first round picks. If you pick a non-first round QB in your rookie draft, you're taking a pretty big gamble. Here's how I see this year's rookie crop:

Top Five:

Goff is the safest QB for rookie drafts in 2016

1. Jared Goff, Cal: Quite simply put, Goff is the safest QB for rookie drafts. You know he's going to the Rams with the first pick, and they aren't selecting him to sit behind Case Keenum. His weapons are going to be limited in year one most likely, but a strong running game should keep the pressure off him. You may be worried about his long-term upside since Jeff Fisher is a run-heavy coach, but Fisher has zero winning seasons in his 4 years with the Rams. If Goff doesn't get them over the 8-8 hump in the next two years, I'd expect L.A. to bring in a coach who will maximize Goff's talents. There will be a learning curve as Goff learns how to play QB from under center, be he seemingly had mastered the Cal offense, and I'd expect him to do the same with the Rams' offense as well over his first couple seasons. Goff's skillset will remind many of Matt Ryan, and I'd put his ceiling in the Ryan range as well. He'll never be an elite fantasy QB, but he can certainly be a QB1 at some point. Goff will likely be a 2nd rounder in most rookie drafts, unless they are 2QB leagues.

2. Paxton Lynch, Memphis: I'm going a little outside of the norm here by not having Goff and Wentz 1 & 2 in some order, but I just don't totally buy into Wenz at this point. I also think Lynch has the potential to be the best fantasy QB in this class. He certainly has work to do to get there, and would be best served sitting behind a veteran starter for at least half a season, but he has the tools to be a really good starting QB. He's got great size at 6'7", 244, and great athleticism. He also does an excellent job of keeping his eyes downfield when he scrambles and looking to throw rather than taking off at the first sign of trouble. He trails only Jared Goff in yards per attempt when under pressure (5.95) and he took just 15 sacks and threw only 4 interceptions all year.  He's shown the ability to diagnose and beat the blitz, completing 68% of his throws for 11 TDs and just 1 INT on 81 attempts against blitzing defenses. His performance in Memphis's bowl game hurt his stock a bit, but he was viewed as the best QB in this class before that game, and I think he still may be. Like Goff, he needs to learn to play from under center, and he also needs to land in a situation where there is a path to the starting job by next year. If that happens, Lynch should be taken in your rookie draft by the end of the 2nd round (1QB leagues).

3. Carson Wentz, NDSU: There has been a strange divide between what the scouting community and the NFL teams and their team scouts see in Carson Wentz. The teams love this kid. They see his intangibles, they see his strong arm and athleticism, his size, his accuracy, and they see a franchise QB. The scouts haven't seen the same thing. They see a guy who played against FCS-level competition, was slow through his progressions, looked like his feet were stuck in cement in the pocket, and always looked to run when he scrambled rather than keeping the passing option alive. Those are some pretty serious red flags. While being slow through progressions in FCS means leaving yards after the catch on the field, in the NFL it means turnovers and broken up passes. Not being able to slide your feet in the pocket to avoid pressure means taking unnecessary sacks. Trying to outrun NFL defenders on a scramble will also turn out worse against NFL defenders than FCS ones. Granted, Wentz could improve on these things and develop into a good NFL starter. I just think he has a lot longer way to go than most TV draft experts and the Philadelphia Eagles think he has. I wouldn't take him ahead of Lynch or Goff in rookie drafts, and I certainly wouldn't count on him as a rookie in fantasy.

4. Connor Cook, MSU: Connor Cook is a bit of a mystery to me. At times he looks every bit the part of a future NFL starter. At other times he looks lost, sailing throws to open receivers and making some very questionable decisions with the ball. Who will he be at the NFL level? I think he'll find his way to a starting job at some point, but am not sure how long it'll stick. His experience in big games is a huge plus, and I think most of the accuracy issues he's had are more a result of poor decision-making than poor throws. A good QB coach should be able to minimize those mistakes and make Cook a much more consistent signal-caller. I'm not saying he'll ever be great, but I think he'll carve out a role as a starter and possibly a fantasy QB2 for several years. Think Teddy Bridgewater, Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick level...not great, but serviceable.

5. Christian Hackenberg, PSU: Hackenberg has been seeing some late life in his draft stock over the past few days, but it's hard for me to ignore the past 2 years of game tape. Hack had a very promising freshman year under Bill O'Brien, but in the two years since BOB left Penn St., his mechanics have gone to hell and his accuracy has fallen off a cliff. He's especially erratic when pressured, but he can be inaccurate even when he's not. It's easy to forget that he also had Allen Robinson to throw the ball to in his freshman season, but Hack insists the issue was the coaching change. He still possesses the physical tools teams look for from a QB, but the trick will be getting him back with a coach who can undo the regression of the last 2 years. Since his size and arm strength are the protoype NFL teams look for, I'm sure he'll get a couple chances in the NFL, which is why I rank him this high.

My Sleepers:

1. Cardale Jones, OSU: When it comes to QB sleepers for Dynasty, I prefer to find the guy with mobility and a strong arm. They can learn the rest, but those two tools can't be taught. Since it's pretty much a crapshoot anyway when you're digging this deep...take the guy with the higher floor. Cardale checks the box for mobility, he's got a cannon for an arm, and while he didn't exactly take the starting job and run with it last year, he did make strides as a passer at Ohio State. He still sailed some throws last year and needs to work on playing in a pro-style offense, but the upside is there. He's come a long way from the kid who tweeted out that he didn't go to OSU to 'play school.' I'd even consider Cardale over Hackenberg, especially if you don't need immediate QB help.

2. Dak Prescott, Miss. St.: Prescott, like Cardale, is a plus athlete with a strong arm who needs to learn the position a bit better to be an impact player at the NFL level. His competitiveness and ability as a runner compare to Tim Tebow, but he has much better mechanics in the passing game and a much more accurate arm than Tebow. He actually had a higher completion percentage in college than Goff or Wentz, and with his skillset he could develop into a starter over time.

Overhyped Sleepers:

1. Vernon Adams Jr., Oregon: I've seen a handful of people comparing Adams to Russell Wilson lately, and while those comparisons are only natural - Adams is short, athletic, and an accurate passer - Adams isn't Russell Wilson. Wilson came in to the NFL with a ton of starting experience against top-level competition between NC State and WIsconsin, and Adams has one injury-shortened season at Oregon that followed a career in a similar offense at FCS school Eastern Washington. I love Vernon's swagger. He called himself the 2nd-best QB in the draft after Wentz, and was reminiscent of Willie Beamon at times on the field (if you don't know who that is, go watch the movie Any Given Sunday), but he's got a really uphill battle just to make an NFL roster. If he lands in San Francisco with Chip Kelly, maybe he gets a chance, but otherwise I can't see a good reason to draft him in your rookie draft.

2. Kevin Hogan, Stanford: Scouts will fall in love with Hogan's intangibles and his college W-L record, but he has just an average arm and average accuracy. Against NFL defenses, those are pretty steep disadvantages. Hogan's ceiling is likely that of a career backup.

Running Backs:

The running back position has gone through a huge transformation in the NFL over the past 5-10 years as the workhorse back has become a dying breed. Running back by committee situations rule the NFL landscape, and have made it tough for fantasy players to pinpoint the elite backs who will be the unquestioned starters on their teams. When drafting a rookie back early, you want to make sure it's someone with a chance to be the 3-down back who can do it all like Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles or Matt Forte. Sure, there are pure power guys like Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount who have proven to be capable fantasy starters, but more often than not you are going to want someone more versatile who can score in a variety of ways. When looking for sleepers, that's where it starts to benefit you to find the guys who are really good at one specialized skill like receiving or short yardage rushing. Here are the guys to pay attention to at the RB position:

Top Five:

Henry still needs to develop skills in the passing game1. Ezekiel Elliott, OSU: Elliott should be the top pick in just about every Dynasty rookie draft. Regardless of landing spot, he should start right away, and he excels in every phase of the game. He'll be a true 3-down back. He's a powerful and decisive runner, he's a good receiver out of the backfield, and he's one of the best blocking running backs to come along in some time. Pass protection is often the biggest hurdle to getting on the field for a rookie runner, but that definitely won't be an issue for Zeke. Barring injury, he seems like a surefire top-15 RB as a rookie and a guy who will be a fantasy RB1 soon.

2. Derrick Henry, Alabama: Henry's skill set kind of flies in the face of the description I gave above about what type of RB you look for early in a rookie draft. Based on his college tape and numbers, he offers next to nothing as a receiver (think Alfred Morris). However, he's a freak athlete with a nose for the end-zone who should do enough damage on 1st and 2nd down to offset what he loses if he sits on 3rd. There will be scouts and pundits who talk about how he had too many carries in college, and how he doesn't break enough tackles and runs too upright, or how his stats are a product of his o-line. Don't buy any of it. Henry should put up 10+ TDs annually as the power half of a running back committee, and I think he will have multiple 1,000-yard seasons in his career. If he adds to his receiving game skills...look out.

3. Kenneth Dixon, La. Tech.: Like Elliott, Dixon has the skills to be a 3-down back in the NFL. He not quite the runner or blocker that Elliott is, but he excels as a receiver out of the backfield and was ultra-productive in college. He just has the most well-rounded game of any rookie back not named Ezekiel, and his pass blocking chops give him a good chance to be fantasy relevant as a rookie.

4. Paul Perkins, UCLA: Perkins has a slight frame, weighing just 210 lbs, but he is one of the more elusive backs in the draft. He forced a missed tackle every 3.2 carries, which is the best rate of any back in this class who carried at least 100 times last year. He has also showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his size, and in the games I saw he ran with a bit of a mean streak. He also has the skills to be a plus receiver out of the backfield. His size might make pass protection an issue against larger pass rushers, but at the very least he should be able to earn a change-of-pace role as a rookie, and likely more. Based on his size and production in college, Perkins most similarly compares to Shane Vereen, but I like his chances to carve out a bigger role as a runner in his career than Vereen ever has. I'd be really comfortable with Perkins early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

5. Jordan Howard, Indiana: Howard is an excellent runner who would likely find himself higher on this list if not for durability concerns. He missed 4 games last year with injury, and parts of the previous 2 seasons as well. He still needs to work on his pass protection technique, but he's a willing blocker. He hasn't shown much as a receiver on his college tape, but he hasn't really had a lot of opportunity to do so. He does have soft hands and could excel in the passing game if given the chance. If you think the injury concerns are overblown, by all means draft him higher. One AFC running backs coach called him the best pure runner in the draft. For me, the injury history is enough reason to drop him down a couple spots.

My Sleepers:

1. Jonathan Williams, Arkansas: Williams ran for over 1,000 yards in 2014 despite splitting time with Alex Collins in a run-heavy Arkansas offense. He was poised for bigger things in 2015 before foot surgery sidelined him for the season. While Collins ran for over 1,000 yards for 3 straight years, it's Williams who projects as the better pro. He has the traits to be a 3-down back if given the opportunity, and he should be available well after Collins in most rookie drafts.

2. Keenan Reynolds, Navy: OK, so this one is a little bit of a longshot, but Reynolds didn't run for 78 rushing scores in the past 3 years by accident. He certainly has a learning curve ahead to transition from a college option QB to an NFL running back, but he certainly has the toughness and athleticism to do it. If he lands on a team with a creative offensive playcaller, he could really carve out a role as a dynamic weapon in the same vein as Denard Robinson. I really think somehow Reynolds winds up a Patriot, and I think Belichick makes good use of him. He's no more than a late round rookie pick in your dynasty drafts, but he's certainly a name to remember.

Overhyped Sleepers:

1. C.J. Prosise, ND: I just don't buy the hype with Prosise. He's been flying up draft boards and rookie rankings among pundits over the past month, and I get what there is to like...He's been through 2 position changes in college (Safety to WR to RB) and continued to be productive. He flashed the speed of a feature back, and his past work at WR gives him a more dynamic skillset in the passing game, but I still feel like his future is basically what we've seen lately from Theo Riddick. Riddick is a nice player and a great PPR asset, but most rookie rankings I've seen have C.J. in the top 4-5 RBs, and that's just higher than I'm willing to take a guy that I see as another Theo Riddick.

2. Devontae Booker, Utah: You will see a lot of rookie rankings that have Booker in their top-5 RBs, and his combine testing and college prodction will back that ranking up, but there are a lot of red flags with Booker. For starters, Booker will play his rookie season at 24 years old. He also needs to work on his pass protection, which can delay how quickly he gets on the field. He had surgery in November for a torn meniscus, which is an injury that can cause future knee problems, and he lacks top-end speed. When you add that all up, he's a guy that should be avoided in the range he's likely to be drafted. I'd love Booker if he fell to the 3rd round...but he won't.

Wide Receivers:

The wide receiver position has become the backbone of a good Dynasty squad. The NFL has become an increasingly pass-heavy league, and wideouts don't typically have the same year-to-year swings in production that the top running backs do. The most successful dynasty teams are typically built around a stable of talented WRs. While this year's class isn't given the same credit the last two classes received, there are plenty of WRs to keep an eye on in the 2016 draft who can be a big help to your fantasy team:

Top Five:

Could Doctson be the next DeAndre Hopkins?1. Josh Doctson, TCU: For me, Doctson is the number 2 prospect in this entire class behind Ezekiel Elliott. He checks every box...he crushed the physical testing at the combine, he was extremely productive on the field, and he has the measurables you look for in a number 1 wide receiver. The biggest knock on Doctson is that he doesn't have top-end speed. He doesn't need it. He is a technician as a route-runner, and is the best in this class at high-pointing the football and making contested catches. Some scouts will say he needs to bulk up to beat press coverage, but at worst Doctson projects as a very good number 2 WR for an NFL team. The NFL player that I think he compares most closely to is DeAndre Hopkins. Cincinnati would be a perfect fit if he gets to them, and they won't hesitate to take him.

2. Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss: Just like Doctson, Treadwell has caught plenty of flack in this draft process for not being faster. Laquon ran a slower than expected 4.63 40-yard dash at his pro day, but you'd be a fool to let that detract from the fact that he was physically dominant in the SEC. He has prototype NFL WR size, and like Doctson is great at high-pointing the football and winning contested catches over DBs. While there are a lot of similarities between Treadwell and Doctson, I prefer the TCU product because he did a better job of making the tough catches look routine. That penchant for the spectacular catch that Doctson has is the biggest separator for me. Treadwell should still be a top-3 pick in Dynasty rookie drafts.

3. Corey Coleman, Baylor: Unlike Doctson and Treadwell, Coleman has tremendous speed, but while he plays bigger than his size, he still stands just 5'11". He played in a spread offense at Baylor that didn't lead to a lot of contested catch opportunities, but Coleman did struggle a little bit with drops on balls over the middle (10 drops on the year).There is still a lot more to like about Coleman than dislike. He doesn't have the nuance of the position down the way that Treadwell and Doctson do, but he's a tremendous athlete. The most common comparison I've seen for him is John Brown, but I think his ceiling is peak Steve Smith Sr. He should be off the draft board by the middle of the first round of rookie drafts.

4. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma: Quite simply put, Shepard is the best slot receiver in this draft, and that is a position that has become increasingly important in today's NFL. He may be the best route runner in this draft, and has incredible short-area quickness and agility to create separation in his routes. He is undersized and can struggle against press coverage, but several WRs in this class suffer from that. Shepard has exceptional hands with 253 career catches at Oklahoma with just 8 drops, and scouts and coaches alike rave about his character and work ethic. He'll be a terror in PPR leagues and should be a star in the league at some point. The TD totals likely won't match the top 2 guys in this group, but I'd put my money on Shepard to have the most 90-catch seasons of the guys in this rookie class.

5. Michael Thomas, OSU: Thomas is a guy whose evaluations have been all over the place, but pretty much everyone views him as a top-7 or 8 WR in this draft. He's got plenty of size to play outside (6'3", 212), and has enough speed for the position (4.55 40-yd dash), but he just doesn't look natural as a wide receiver. He struggles a bit with press coverage and with running precise routes, but he's shown good hands and great ability after the catch. Most of his work at OSU was done in the short and intermediate areas, but he may have the skill to develop a deep game. If he can get to a point where he looks like he's just playing the game and reacting rather than thinking on the field, he has a chance to be really good. Without knowing if that will ever come, I'd project him to be a similar player to Michael Crabtree, and he should be taken in the late 1st/early 2nd round of rookie drafts.

My Sleepers:

1. Charone Peake, Clemson: Peake was largely overshadowed in his years at Clemson, playing behind Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Williams, but he finally had a chance to get out from that shadow a little bit last year. Granted, he's not a household name, which is why he ends up as a sleeper. DeShaun Watson, Wayne Gallman and Artavis Scott had more attention last year, but Peake has a chance to be really good at the NFL level. He has the physical tools you look for in a number 1 WR. He's tall (6'2"), fast (4.37 40-yd dash), and has a huge wingspan, which will increase his catch radius. He does have some injury red flags, and needs to work on his awareness vs. zone defenses and catching the ball more consistently (5 drops last year), but his upside is huge. He'll likely be drafted before the end of the 3rd round of the NFL draft, and shouldn't make it past the 3rd round in your rookie draft either.

2. Tajae Sharpe, UMass: Sharpe is the most productive receiver in UMass history, and he's gotten there with exceptional route running and great hands in a pass-happy offense. He needs to fill out his frame more to really fulfill his potential, but he's still just 21 and has experience playing both outside and in the slot. I think his ceiling is a rich man's Jerricho Cotchery. While that doesn't sound that exciting, you can likely have him for a 4th round rookie pick or later.

3. Daniel Braverman, WMU: You can make accusations that Braverman is a bit of a homer pick, since I attended school at Western Michigan myself, but his game projects very well to the next level. He has shredded MAC competition over the past 2 years, and actually put up lines of 13-109 and 10-123-1 against Michigan State and Ohio State, respectively in 2015. He's proven that he can get open and produce against top competition at the college level. He's definitely undersized, and he's more quick than fast, but the potential is there for Braverman to be a PPR stud down the road. I'm sure you'll hear comparisons to Cole Beasley, but Braverman will be better than Cole. If he's still available in the 5th round, do yourself a favor and scoop him up, especially if you're in a PPR format.

Overhyped Sleepers:

1. Leonte Carroo, Rutgers: Carroo has decent NFL size and has shown a penchant for catching the deep ball, averaging over 20 yards per catch over the past 2 seasons with 20 TDs. He's also had off the field issues that cost him 2 games last year and he's slower than you would expect for a guy with his deep ball numbers. Rutgers' play-action passing game likely helped open him up deep, and I think he's going to struggle to duplicate those results against NFL corners. While I've seen some experts pushing Carroo as a top-5 WR, I think he ultimately ends up as a bust. He was kind of a one-trick pony in college whose one trick isn't going to play as well in the NFL. I'd avoid him unless he slips to the late 3rd round of your rookie draft.

2. Will Fuller, ND: Some NFL team is going to fall in love with Fuller's 4.32 40 time and overdraft him by a bunch. Several mock drafts I've seen show him going in the first round. If that happens, the team that picks him will likely be disappointed. Fuller is a deep ball specialist, with 27% of his catches last year gaining 25+ yards, but there is plenty to not like. He has a slight frame and zero savvy on short underneath routes, meaning he won't do much damage over the middle of the field. He also has struggled with drops, tallying 9 of them in each of the past 2 seasons. Fuller's athlticism is outstanding, but he has so much work to do on the nuance and technique of the position that I don't ever see him becoming more than a deep threat. His skillset should bring memories of Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ted Ginn Jr., Troy Williamson and Cordarrelle Patterson...hardly elite company. Draft in the first round at your own risk.

3. Tyler Boyd, Pitt: Boyd was extremely productive in his 3 years at Pitt. He caught at least 78 passes in each of his 3 seasons there and topped 1,000 receiving yards in 2 of them. He also showed some wheels with his 4.5 40-yard dash time on Pitt's pro day, but he doesn't show that same speed on film. His short-area quickness is really lacking, and he has to get by on route running technique and good hands. In 2015, he averaged about 10 yards per catch on 91 catches, which is an awful average for an elite college WR. The only good NFL receivers who have gotten by with poor ypc numbers are Jarvis Landry and Keenan Allen, and I don't think Boyd is nearly as good as them. He's struggled to get separation against college DBs, and that will only get worse at the NFL level. I'd avoid Tyler at the range he's likely to be drafted.

Tight Ends:

The tight end position is the least exciting position in terms of the rookie draft. Very rarely does a rookie tight end make a big impact on the fantasy landscape, often taking until year 2 or 3 to break out. That doesn't mean you can or should wait until they are 2 years into their career to think about drafting them. Jordan Reed showed flashes of the player he would become as a rookie. So did Rob Gronkowski. Julius Thomas seemingly came out of nowhere when he broke out with Denver, but saavy owners were already on him. While the value of tight ends in rookie drafts is substantially lower than the three positions above, that isn't a reason to ignore them altogether. Here's a look at this year's names to watch:

Top Three:

Henry is set to become an all-around great NFL TE1. Hunter Henry, Arkansas: Henry is the clear top TE in this year's class. In most rookie drafts, he should be off the board in the late 2nd round or early 3rd, and he's an extremely well-rounded prospect. He's an excellent run blocker, and he didn't have a single drop last year while catching 51 passes. His game compares a bit to Jason Witten, who has been as steady as they come over the past decade. Like most rookie TEs, don't draft him expecting to be able to start him this year, but he should develop into a really good NFL starter.

2. Austin Hooper, Stanford: Hooper probably gets a little bit more credit than he deserves due to the recent track record of Stanford TEs in the NFL (Zach Ertz & Coby Fleener). He's got good size and good hands, but he'll struggle to get separation against NFL defenses. He's shown more as a receiver than the next entry on this list, but Hooper still projects to be more Brent Celek than Zach Ertz or Fleener.

3. Nick Vannett, OSU: Vannett has the requisite size and athleticism to be a good NFL tight end, but he has to develop the demeanor to play more physical. He was under-utilized at OSU, but he could be a red zone monster if he embraces his size.

My Sleepers:

1. Thomas Duarte, UCLA: There is a question as to whether or not Duarte is big enough to play tight end in the NFL, but he certainly has the passing game skill to be a tough matchup. His skillset and measurables are reminiscent of Jordan Reed, who was kind of a question mark coming into the league before breaking out with Washington. Duarte will struggle if asked to block regularly, but you're not drafting fantasy TEs for their blocking prowess. He could be a bust due to his lack of size, but Duarte's upside is real if he lands in the right place.

2. Rico Gathers, Baylor: The transition likely won't be an easy one for Gathers, as he is coming to the NFL from the Baylor basketball team, but there has been a long track record of basketball players making good NFL tight ends. Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, and Julius Thomas all played college basketball. Gathers is enormous, at 6'7" and nearly 280 pounds, but he is a good athlete and has soft hands. He won't make an immediate impact, but there is a really high ceiling for Baylor's former power forward.

Overhyped Sleepers:

1. Tyler Higbee, W. Kentucky: Higbee has been a popular name this offseason. He's a former wide receiver with great size at 6'6", 249, but he needs to improve as a blocker and character red flags popped up recently as he was arrested for assault just 18 days before the draft, and the details don't sound good. The victim suffered a brain hemmorhage, and Higbee changed his story to police multiple times. Initially he said the victim got into his and his girlfriend's personal space. He then said the victim called some friends to come fight Higbee, but the call was in a foreign language. When police asked how he knew that's what the victim was saying, Higbee said he "just knew." Once he was at the jail, Tyler completely reversed course and said the guy never tried to fight him, that he was just in their personal space, so he hit him. Again...this happened about two and a half weeks ago. I'd be surprised if Higbee is drafted before late in the 3rd day, and this seems like the kind of thing that may come up again. There is physical talent here, but he's not worth more than an end-of-the-draft flyer.

2. Jerell Adams, S. Carolina: I've seen Adams ranked as a top-5 tight end in a lot of rankings this offseason, but he's got a lot of work to do to live up to that. He has some speed for the position, but it's more straight-line speed than athleticism. He's also got below-average hands and isn't a great route runner. NFL teams may like him, but that's not a reason for you to draft him in fantasy.

That's all I've got for this Rookie Report Special. As I mentioned at the opening, where these guys end up will have a huge impact on their fantasy outlook, but it's always important to have an idea of who these guys are going in. Just because a guy goes in the first round or lands in a spot with immediate playing time doesn't mean he'll be an automatic stud. Just ask dynasty owners who drafted Trent Richardson as a rookie. I'll be back a little closer to the season with a 2016 rookie preview. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you want to yell at me about the above rankings (@shawn_foss) and thanks for reading. If you're in Chicago, do yourself a favor and get to the draft in person. You may run into me there. The Rams are on the clock...

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This week’s report will be a little bit different. For the most part, season-long leagues have already come to a close…at least if they have a reasonable commissioner. Week 17 is a nightmare to try to predict. It’s like trying to guess what will happen in the lesser bowl games in college. It’s all about which team is motivated to win, which team is motivated to play their starters, and which team is motivated to just get the year over with. Because of this, it’s nearly impossible to accurately predict what will happen in a lot of the games. The wackiness of week 17 will cause me to change things up just a little bit this week and put more of a focus on daily fantasy games. There won’t be a ‘Deep League Sleepers’ section or a ‘Rookies to Sit’ section this week. For those of you still in season-long leagues, I’ll still list which rookies I’d feel good about starting this week and which ones are borderline options, but I’m also going to list a few DFS punt play options at the end. These are low-priced options that not a lot of people are likely to own that can be difference makers in guaranteed prize pool tournaments if they happen to have a big game.

Before we dive in, here are some rookies that won’t come up in the sections below: QB Marcus Mariota (out with injury), RB TJ Yeldon (Likely out with injury), RB Ameer Abdullah (Not getting goal-line work and not trustworthy), RB Duke Johnson (hasn’t produced 15 PPR points since week 7), RB Jay Ajayi (llimited role and tough matchup), WR Devin Funchess (8 catches in his past 5 games), WR Nelson Agholor (hasn’t produced all year), WR Phillip Dorsett (might have liked him as a punt play, but will have either Ryan Lindley or Josh Freeman throwing him the ball), and TE Maxx Williams (brutal matchup).

Alright, let’s dive in to week 17…

Rookies to Start:

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 17: @SF): Gurley has the best combination of role and matchup of any rookie this week. In the 6 games since their bye week, the 49ers have allowed 132.5 rushing yards and 24.3 fantasy points (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring) per game to opposing RBs, as well as 10 total TDs to the position as well. Gurley put up 146 scrimmage yards and a TD in the first meeting with San Francisco, and it’s one of the few opponents he could face where game script is virtually guaranteed to be neutral or positive for him. He’s a locked in RB1 this week, and would be a chalk play in DFS.

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 17: vs. Sea.): The Seahawks allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league, so Johnson isn’t a great DFS target except as a contrarian play in tournaments, but his role has been too big to sit him in season-long leagues. If Arizona wins and Carolina loses, the Cardinals will secure homefield throughout the playoffs, and the games will occur simultaneously, so the Cards won’t know the Panthers’ outcome beforehand. That should keep them from resting starters. Johnson’s passing game usage gives him a floor that will keep him in the RB2 mix even in brutal matchups. He’s averaged just under 150 scrimmage yards with 5 TDs in his 4 starts, and hasn’t had fewer than 120 yards in any of them. Don’t shy away in championship week just because he faces Seattle.

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 17: @KC): Cooper has been far more boom-or-bust than I expected this year, and he likely killed you last week if you played him with his 2-10 line. One thing that he has done consistently this year is bounce back from his worst outings. Cooper has scored 5 points or fewer 6 times this year including last weekend. In all 5 of the previous instances, he topped 10 points the following week, averaging a line of 6.4-113-1 in those 5 contests. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs are 24th in Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA (measures defensive efficiency) on throws to #1 WRs. Kansas City allows 98 yards per game to the opposing #1 wideout, and Cooper put up 4-69 in the first meeting. I like his chances to bounce back this week, and he would make a decent play in DFS and as a WR2 in season-long leagues.

Borderline Options:

RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Karlos turned in a solid effort last week starting in place of injured LeSean McCoy, picking up 97 scrimmage yards and a TD, but there are a couple of concerns this week. First of all, the Jets are a brutal matchup. They allow the 3^rd-fewest fantasy RB points in the league. Second, the recent success of Mike Gillislee as a runner could cause him to cut into Karlos’s workload a bit. Gillislee has gained 239 yards on 23 carries over the past 4 weeks (10.4 ypc), and has scored a TD in each of the past 3. With that said, Gillislee is more effective as a change of pace back and Karlos should continue to run as the lead back. He did manage 10 points against the Jets in a week 10 start, and the Bills still boast the best running game in the league (#1 in rush yards and yards per carry). Karlos might be a little lighter than you’d like on yards this week, but I’d still put him at better than a 50-50 bet to score a TD.

RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin.): Allen was surprisingly impressive against a stingy Steelers RB defense last Sunday. This week he gets to face a Bengals team that has allowed over 6 catches and about 50 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this year, and also 17 or more fantasy points to the position in each of their past 3 games. Allen should be a solid PPR flex play this week, assuming he doesn’t fumble and get benched again.

RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. TB): At this point, it appears that Jonathan Stewart is likely to miss the week 17 game with Tampa and Fozzy Whitaker has already been ruled out. That would leave just Cam Artis-Payne and Mike Tolbert as healthy RBs for the Panthers. Artis-Payne will likely cede goal line carries to Cam Newton and Tolbert, but he put up 49 yards on just 5 carries last week , and the volume should be much better in this one. Tampa has allowed at least one rushing TD to a running back in each of the past 3 weeks, and the backs have totaled at least 26 carries in each of those 3 games against them. I’d expect Artis-Payne to be in the 15 carry range, which puts him in the Flex discussion despite his lack of red zone opportunities.

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. Det,): I would probably avoid playing Langford this week if possible, but when the Lions & Bears get together, you can usually throw out the season numbers. Matt Forte was hampered by a back injury last week, and the Bears seem to be grooming Langford to be the lead back next year. Expect him to see the bulk of the RB volume this week. The Lions have been a tough matchup lately (11.8 RB points per game allowed since week 9 bye, 20.6 per game before the bye), and Ka’Deem Carey has been vulturing some goal-line work lately (2 short scores last week vs. Tampa), but Langford should be on the flex radar on volume alone with so few elite RB options right now.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 17: @Ari.): Lockett was a little bit of a disappointment in week 16, but his volume remained constant. He’s had exactly 7 targets in each of the 4 games since Jimmy Graham went down, and last week was the only game in that stretch where he had fewer than 5 catches and 9 fantasy points. The volume should be there again this week. The Cardinals are a tough matchup as they boast a versatile secondary, but the injury to Tyrann Mathieu improves the pass game outlook for Seattle. Lockett should be a high-risk/high-reward WR3 option this week.

WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 17: vs. NE): The matchup isn’t great this week for Parker, but it isn’t terrible either. The Patriots are middle of the pack in limiting WR fantasy points (allow 15^th-most in the league), but their defensive focus is always on taking away the offense’s favorite options. The Pats should make it their goal to take away Jarvis Landry, which should help DeVante find some room to operate. Miami should also be playing from behind, which will keep them throwing, and Parker has 87 or more yards and/or a TD in 4 of the last 5 games. There’s risk that the ‘Fins phone it in with the season essentially over, but I like Parker’s chances at another solid day.

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): I was surprised Tye didn’t do more with Odell suspended a week ago, but Beckham’s return should open things up for the whole offense. Tye scored 7 or more fantasy points in each of the 4 games leading up to last week’s game without Odell, and the Eagles have allowed double-digit fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 3 of their past 6 games, including 24 to Jordan Reed last Saturday. Tye should find himself in the lower half of the TE1 ranks once again.

DFS Punt Play Options:

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 17: @Car.): You might call Winston more of a contrarian play than a punt play, but his price tag is just $300 more than the minimum for a QB on DraftKings, and with a matchup against the Panthers (allow the 4^th-fewest QB points in the league), virtually no one will be using him. While the matchup isn’t good, the game script figures to keep Tampa throwing and the Panthers have been vulnerable to the pass over the past month. Carolina has allowed 22 points to Drew Brees, 23 points to Eli Manning, and 306 yards to Matt Ryan all within the last 4 weeks. Jameis is yet to tally fewer than 12 fantasy points in a game all year, and there is more ceiling in this matchup than you might think. He also remains a floor play QB2 in season-long leagues.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): This all depends on how healthy Jones is. Washington seems content to rest the majority of their starters this weekend to get ready for the playoffs, but someone has to carry the load at running back. They may look to use Jones more as he shakes off the rust of missing last week with a hip injury. This is a great matchup for the Washington backs, as Dallas ranks 27^th in run DVOA on the season, and has allowed 29.3 running back fantasy points per game over the past 3 games. If the team rests Alf Morris and gives Jones enough work to get rolling, he could have really nice upside at a price tag of just $3,900 on DraftKings. Obviously this game is a bit of a wild card, with Washington having little to play for, but the situation is positive if Jones gets enough action to take advantage of it.

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 17: @GB): While Diggs hasn’t done a whole lot since his 4-game breakout earlier in the season to convince you he’s a good fantasy option, Green Bay should force Minnesota to throw more than they like to. The Packers rank 26^th in pass DVOA against #1 WRs, and Diggs went 6-66 against Green Bay in the first meeting between the teams in week 11. While Diggs is a little more expensive than I would have expected ($4,600 in DraftKings), the price isn’t ridiculous and no one will be on him after his 4-19 showing last week. I wouldn’t be stunned if he ends up in the 20-point range.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 17: @Ind.): With Zach Mettenberger at QB, trusting Dorial even in a reasonably good matchup is tough to do after last week’s goose egg. However, we’ve seen DGB’s ceiling, and it’s impressive. He’s topped 110 yards twice in the past 4 games, and he does have an exploitable matchup if he isn’t locked up with Vontae Davis all game. Indy has allowed the 3^rd-most WR points on the year and Green-Beckham will cost just $3,800 in DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps you set your championship and DFS lineups for this week. I’ll be back within the next couple of weeks with a 2015 rookie recap and will project the 2015 class to next year. If you have any specific questions or complaints, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss) and let me know. As always…good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally here...championship week. Hopefully all of the weeks of waiver wire moves, bold lineup decisions, and Sunday and Monday nail biting have paid off, and you still are left standing with a chance to bring home the title. This week should be all about making the lineup decisions that you can live with even if you happen to lose...does that mean playing it safe and rolling with your stars (even if they haven't necessarily been that this year), or does that mean rolling the dice with a guy you feel good about this week? That's up to you. I'm here to give you a better feel of what to expect from your rookies this week, but it's up to you to pull the trigger and start them. Let's dive in...

Rookies to Start:

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. GB): The matchup isn't ideal, but you aren't sitting him after he dropped 40 points on the Eagles last Sunday (all points listed are in ESPN standard scoring). Johnson has averaged 157 yards from scrimmage and scored 4 TDs in his 3 starts since CJ2K went down, and this week faces a Packers team that ranks 18th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA (measures defensive efficiency). Johnson has RB1 upside again this week (although I doubt he beats the rest of the RB field by 10 points again).

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. SD): The matchup is tough this week, as Cooper is likely to draw Jason Verrett and the Chargers allow the 4th fewest WR points in the league, but if you take away the goose egg Amari put up against Denver, he's put up lines of 7-115, 4-69, and 6-120-2 in the past 4 weeks with at least 8 targets in each game. He'll continue to see lots of volume, and the upside is just too high for you to leave Cooper on the bench despite some shaky weeks this season. He's a rock solid WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jameis gets an interesting matchup this week. The Bucs' offensive game plan is typically run-heavy and limits Jameis's passing volume, but the Bears have allowed some solid passing days on limited attempts this year. They've allowed over 20 QB points on fewer than 25 passing attempts 3 times this season, including 32 to Teddy Bridgewater on 20 attempts last Sunday, and have also allowed at least 21 QB points in each of the past 3 contests. I expect the game script to at least be neutral, and the Bucs pass volume to be limited again, but Jameis has shown a safe QB2 floor, and there is upside for a top-10 QB day.

RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): There is a fear that Karlos will split touches with Mike Gillislee after Gillislee ran so well over the past few weeks, but Williams is the one who is built to be an every down back and I'd expect him to lead the committee. The Cowboys rank 27th in run DVOA, and Karlos averaged about 10 yards per carry in his return from a two-week injury absence. If Karlos is able to take the lead, I like his chances to return RB2 value and get back into the end zone for the first time since week 10.

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 16: @Sea.): The matchup is brutal and we've seen a low floor for Gurley, but his talent and volume give him some flex appeal. The Rams do have some history of being able to run on the Seahawks under Jeff Fisher, getting stat lines of 18-85-1 from Tre Mason and 26-134 out of Zac Stacy against them in the last two seasons, but those games were in St. Louis. This one is in Seattle. I'd lean towards sitting Gurley if you have better options.

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Abdullah is coming off his best game of the year, and the 49ers run defense has been abysmal on the road. San Francisco allows 28.7 points per game to opposing RBs on the road (at least 22 in all 7 road games). They also rank 24th in run DVOA for the year. Abdullah was the overall RB14 in a plus matchup on Monday. He looked explosive, and more importantly, Jim Caldwell went back to him after he lost a fumble in the 2nd half. Betting on the Lions' run game is always a risky proposition, but Abdullah could have week-winning upside if you're willing to trust him with the title on the line.

RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Although Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton are likely to vulture any short TDs, Artis-Payne should lead the backfield in touches yet again. He out-touched Tolbert and Fozzy Whitaker 16-9 a week ago, and this week faces the Falcons who allow the 4th-most RB fantasy points and rank 21st in run DVOA. Artis-Payne's expected volume should make him a low-end RB2 with the upside for more.

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 16: @NO): Yeldon is very iffy for this week, and would likely split touches with Denard Robinson if he's able to give it a go Sunday, but boy does he get a juicy matchup. The Saints have only held 2 teams in their past 10 games under 19 RB points, and they rank 29th in run DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA on throws to running backs. Keep an eye on the injury report and be ready to roll out Yeldon if he seems to be close to 100%.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. StL.): Regardless of matchup, Lockett should remain a borderline WR3 in most formats. He's seen 7 targets in each game since Jimmy Graham went down for the year, and in those games he's been the overall WR28, WR4 and WR21. The Rams have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game for the full season, but have allowed 26.5 per game over the past 4, which would be the-4th most. Don't invent reasons not to play Lockett just becuase it's the title week.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Week 15 was just a taste of what DGB is capable of. He's now put up 14-285-1 over the past 3 games on 22 targets. With Mariota out due to a knee injury, you'd expect Green-Beckham's value to take a minor hit this week, but that might not be the case. Zach Mettenberger did target Dorial 7 times after taking over last Sunday, connecting with him 5 times. Dorial actually has a higher catch rate on throws from Mett than he has on throws from Mariota. His talent and role will keep him firmly on the WR3 radar this week.

WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): If Rishard Matthews is able to come back from his rib injury this week, this is a situation best avoided for fantasy. If Matthews is out again however, Parker remains in play as a WR3 option. He's topped 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 3 of the last 4 games, and the Colts allow the 5th-most WR points in the league. I'd feel more comfortable starting him as a 4th WR in leagues where that's possible, but he has upside once again.

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 16: @Min.): I'm almost inclined to list Tye as a 'Rookie to Start' this week, but I can't advocate starting him over proven studs like Barnidge, Olsen, Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed, etc. Tye has been no lower than the overall TE8 in the past 3 weeks, and he should see an uptick in volume this week with Odell Beckham suspended (I expect the suspension to be upheld). Tye should carry a low TE1 floor this week, regardless of the matchup. Every defense that Tye has started against so far has ranked in the top half of the league in limiting TE fantasy points (4th, 8th, 12th, and 15th). The VIkings rank 12th(tie) vs TEs in terms of points allowed, but also are 26th in pass DVOA on throws to tight ends. Tye should be safe to fire up again.

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. SD): Walford has seen target totals of 5, 7 and 7 over the past 3 games, and the Chargers rank 31st in pass DVOA against tight ends. His point totals haven't been overwhelming (10 total points in those 3 games), so he's more of a desperation streamer, but there is legitimate upside here.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 16: @TB): Despite double-digit carries in games vs. the 24th, 23rd and 20th ranked run defenses in terms of DVOA, Langford has been held to 5 points in each of the past 3 weeks. Meanwhile, Matt Forte has tallied 17, 10 and 15 in those games. This week, they face the Bucs, who rank 4th in run DVOA. Langford is a desperation flex-play at best.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Jones gets a plus matchup this week, but he has proven to be unreliable over and over again. Every time we're convinced he's taken over as the lead back, Alfred Morris rears his ugly head again. This past weekend it was due to a Jones hip injury, and the rookie is day-to-day as a result of it for this week. That should allow Alfred to continue to mix in prominently in week 16. We've seen the big play ability of Jones a few times this year, and he has higher upside than Jeremy Langford this week due to the matchup, but like Langford, Jones is just a desperation flex option.

RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Allen has totaled just 2 fantasy points total in the past two games and was out-carried by Terrance West last week after fumbling for the 2nd straight game. John Harbaugh claims Allen won't be banished to the doghouse this week, but West isn't going to go away and the Steelers allow the 2nd fewest RB fantasy points in the league. Pittsburgh also ranks 7th in run DVOA and 5th in pass DVOA on throws to running backs. Buck isn't worth a starting spot this week.

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 16: @KC): Even with an impressive performance last week in a tough matchup with Seattle, Johnson was still just the overall RB27 for the week. I don't expect him to be even that good this week against a Chiefs defense that is in the top-5 in the league at limiting RB fantasy points and also allows the fewest RB receiving yards.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Funchess managed to cash in for those owners who rolled the dice on him finding a touchdown last weekend, but do you really want to make it double-or-nothing against the #2 defense in the league in terms of wide receiver fantasy points allowed? Funchess is once again a low-volume TD dart throw this week, but not one I'd want to roll out there.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): I'm pretty much listing him for comic relief at this point. Agholor followed a 3-62-1 line in week 14 with a goose egg in week 15. There's no chance you're playing him despite a decent matchup.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Ajayi is a DFS punt option again this week. His role is too undefined to trust him in your fantasy title game. Miami's season is limping to the finish, and Ajayi saw some work with the game last week getting out of hand early. This week things may stay a bit closer, but the Colts have allowed 132.5 RB rushing yards per game in the past 4 weeks, and the Dolphins have consistently under-utilized Lamar Miller. Miller is averaging under 12 carries per game. There is a decent chance that Ajayi gets a bigger share of the load than expected once again this week.

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Most people would probably still shy away from using Diggs despite his 2 TDs last week. The volume just hasn't been there. He's tallied just 11 catches and 120 yards in the past 4 games. With that said, I have a hunch the Minnesota pass volume is a little higher than we're used to this week. The Giants invite shootouts, and with AP nicked up, the Vikings might be inclined to oblige them. New York has faced 35 or more pass attempts in 12 of their 14 games this year, and 40+ in 9 of them. They've also allowed 28.5 WR fantasy points per game over the last 4 weeks, which would be the worst in the league as a season average. No one is questioning Diggs's talent. The increase in volume should make him an upside WR3 option.

WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. NE): Quincy is running as the full time #3 WR for the Jets with Devin Smith on IR, and the Pats' defense focuses on taking out the top options of the opposing pass attack. New England is 5th in pass DVOA against number 1 WRs, 14th in pass DVOA against number 2's, and 27th vs. all other WRs. While I'm hard pressed to mention formats where Enunwa is a viable option, he should be a decent bet to set career bests in catches and yards (currently 5 and 50).

TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Williams put up a 5-31 line against the best fantasy TE defense in the league last week with Crockett Gillmore now done for the year. This week he gets a Pittsburgh defense that has been good against tight ends, but they have given up 75+ yards to the position 6 times in 14 games. Williams is nothing more than a DFS punt play, but 5 catches and 50+ yards wouldn't be surprising.

TE Blake Bell, SF (Wk. 16: @Det.): The Belldozer has 40+ yards in 3 of the past 4 games, and is fresh off receiving 8 targets last week despite Vance McDonald being active. The Lions have allowed 11 TDs to tight ends in 14 games, and rank 30th in pass DVOA against the position. If last week's volume repeats itself, Bell should at least threaten to crack the top-12 tight ends for the week.

That's all I've got this week. Hopefully it helps you to the league title. For those of you with a week 17 championship game or avid DFS players, I will do a quick column for week 17 as well. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always...good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're just a week away from Championship Week in most leagues, so hopefully your team is still standing (both literally and figuratively). Week 14 was a brutal one for injuries. I was bounced from 3 different league playoffs with teams that each started one of Andy Dalton or Thomas Rawls, and one of them also had Tyler Eifert. It didn't help that I got horrible efforts from Calvin Johnson, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, Jeremy Maclin, Larry Fitzgerald and Brian Hoyer (2 separate 2-QB leagues), but that's neither here nor there. TJ Yeldon also went down in last week's carnage. After last week, the running back position is getting mighty thin, so expect a lot of RB insight in this week's write-up. There is only one rookie that I feel confident in telling you is a must-start this week, but plenty more who could and should make an impact. Let's dive in....

Rookies to Start:

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Yes, David Johnson is the only rookie that I can say with total confidence that you should be starting this week. He's thrived in the starter's role the past two weeks, putting up 120+ scrimmage yards in in each contest and scoring a TD in one. The Eagles rank 21st in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA (measures defensive efficiency), and they've allowed 100 RB rushing yards and or a running back TD in 5 of the 6 games played since their bye. Arizona should control the game, which should keep Johnson running all day. He has an RB2 floor and RB1 ceiling.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Gurley had a monster bounce-back game last week, but that doesn't mean he's out of the woods just yet. He's still a boom-or-bust option, albeit one with overall RB1 upside when he booms. The key last week was that the Rams were able to play from ahead, keeping the run game in play long enough for Gurley to wear down the defensive front and start ripping off chunk plays in the 2nd half. That's been his MO all season, and keeping this game close will be critical to him having another big day. Tampa does rank 5th in run DVOA, and the Rams have almost no passing game to speak of, but I like the chances that the St. Louis defense keeps this game close and allows Gurley to return at least RB2 value. My only hesitation is the low floor we've seen if the Rams fall behind.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Jones has finally appeared to emerge as the lead back in Washington, out-touching Alfred Morris 39-17 over the past 2 weeks. Buffalo ranks 28th in run DVOA, and every team that has had 17 RB carries against Buffalo has picked up at least 85 rushing yards on them. Jones has 18 carries on his own in each of the past two games. The Bills have also allowed 7 RB rushing scores in their past 8 games. Despite Jones's inefficiency, with RB so thin this week he's a decent flex play and boasts high RB2 upside.

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 15: @NO): Ameer had his worst game in 3 weeks last Sunday, and still managed 44 scrimmage yards against a defense that ranks 12th in run DVOA. The Saints rank 27th. The Saints have been giving points to RBs almost as freely as they do to QBs, allowing the 2nd most RB points in the league. I expect Abdullah to get back to double-digit carries this week, and in this matchup that could make him an upside flex in leagues with 12 teams or more.

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Cooper will be happy to be rid of Aqib Talib this week after Talib held him catchless on 8 targets, but the Packers are no cakewalk either. They've allowed just one WR to reach 70 yards in the past 5 games (Alshon Jeffery), and they've allowed just 4 top-20 weekly WR finishes all year. The Raiders should funnel Cooper targets early to get him back on track, but he's definitely more of a WR3 option than locked in WR2. I'd feel much more comfortable starting him if Green Bay's top corner Sam Shields misses this game with the concussion he suffered last week.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): The bump in volume for Tyler Lockett in week 13 proved to not be a fluke. After seeing a season-high 7 targets in the first game after Jimmy Graham went down, he saw another 7 this past Sunday. With those 14 targets, he pulled in 13 of them for 194 yards and 2 TDs. He now boasts a ridiculous 41 catches on 47 targets for the year (87.2% catch rate, best of any WR targeted at least 10 times). As long as that volume holds up, and I expect it to, Lockett should remain a decent WR3 option.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 15: @NE): Dorial has flashed great potential at times this season, especially over the past 2 weeks, but he was back to being inconsistent last Sunday following his breakout game vs. Jacksonville. The good news...he was targeted 7 times and got open consistently. He'll remain a volitile weekly option, but his talent and role give him WR2 upside, even versus the emerging New England secondary.

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Walford has finally started to see substantial volume over the past 2 weeks. He's got 8 catches for 100 yards on 12 targets over the past two games. The Packers are in the bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to TEs (all point numbers based on ESPN standard scoring) and have allowed a tight end touchdown in 5 of their past 6 games. Despite the presence of Mychal Rivera to steal some TE snaps, Walford is a solid streaming option this week.

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Car.): The matchup is really imposing for Tye, but he's scored at least 5 fantasy points in each of his past 4 games and 7 in each of his past 3. With Josh Norman likely to match up with Odell Beckham a bunch (not sure if Norman will follow Odell to the slot), look for Tye to remain a key piece of the offense in situations where Norman is on Beckham. There isn't a huge ceiling here, but Tye should be a safe bet for 40-50 yards, which is better than taking a shot on someone who may goose egg if you're streaming at tight end. Tye has been returning borderline TE1 production over the past month.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 15: @NE): Mariota has been playing excellent football lately, scoring 17+ points in every game except versus Carolina since he returned from injury in week 9. He's found a variety of ways to get to the end zone, even catching a 41-yard TD on trick play last week. He gets a real test this week though. The Patriots do a great job of erasing the opposition's top targets, so look for them to focus primarily on Delanie Walker, and secondarily on Dorial Green-Beckham. The Patriots' secondary has been really coming together of late, seeing standout play from both Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler. New England has allowed 12 points or fewer to opposing QBs in 6 of their last 7 (Eli is the exception). I wouldn't be willing to try Mariota as anything more than a low level QB2 this week.

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 15: @StL): Jameis was a huge letdown last week in an excellent spot, and he gets much stiffer opposition this week. The Rams have allowed a QB to reach 20 fantasy points just twice all year, and the Bucs will be without Vincent Jackson. Mike Evans should spend most of his day squaring off with Trumaine Johnson, who just held Megatron to 1 catch for 16 yards on Sunday. Jameis has proven to have a usable floor in 2-QB leagues, scoring at least 12 points in every game this season, but he's not on the QB1 radar this week.

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): As of now, Yeldon appears to be a longshot to play with a sprained knee. The Jaguars signed Jonas Gray, and head coach Gus Bradley didn't update the media on Yeldon's status on Tuesday. Typically coaches are eager to share good news on the injury front. Even if Yeldon is able to go, I'd expect him to see a limited workload and split touches with Denard Robinson. Given that he's gotten by all year on volume, a split workload would make him a dicey flex play even in this plus matchup.

RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Allen showed what his floor looks like last week w/o Matt Schaub in a tough matchup with the Seahawks, and it wasn't god awful (56 scoreless yards on 13 touches). That's not what you're hoping to get out of a starter though. This week he faces a Chiefs' defense that is arguably just as stingy as the Seahawks, and they also boast the best pass DVOA in the league on passes to running backs. If you're okay with about 5 points in standard scoring or 10 in PPR leagues, go ahead and play Allen. There isn't much more ceiling than that this week.

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 15: @Min.): Since Matt Forte returned from injury, Langford has averaged just 14 touches and 57 scrimmage yards/game, and he's been held under 70 yards and without a TD in each of the last 2. Both were plus matchups (home against San Francisco and Washington). This week he faces a Vikings team that has allowed just 2 RB scores in 9 games since their bye, and over 16 RB points just once in that span. Given the time share with Forte, I doubt Langford gets enough volume to make a fantasy impact. He's best left on the pine.

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 15: @Sea.): Don't expect a repeat of last week's rushing output for Duke. He still gets by on his passing game work, and he just doesn't get as much of it with Johnny Manziel starting. In the 5 games where Manziel has started or seen extended playing time, Duke has just 7 total catches. Even if you throw out the first 2 games of the year, which were before Johnson had established his passing game role, he's still averaged just 2.3 catches per game in the other 3. Facing an imposing matchup this week, Duke will be hard pressed to return RB3 value in any format.

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 15: vs. Chi.): The passing volume was finally there last week for Minnesota, with Teddy Bridgewater throwing for nearly 340 yards on 25 completions, but just 11 of them were to wide receivers and only 2 were to Diggs. He still sees a healthy percenage of the Minnesota passing targets, but I don't expect that big volume again this week. Teddy B has thrown for under 200 yards in 5 of the past 7 games, and Minny should lean on AP this week facing a Bears' defense that ranks dead last in run DVOA. I'd be at least a little surprised if there's enough work for Diggs to top 50 yards.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 15: @NYG): With the season on the line, now is not the time to play a low-floor touchdown dart throw wide receiver. In his best game without a TD, Funchess tallied just 4 points. Yikes.

WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 15: @SD): I can't trust Parker this week after his 2-16 line on Monday Night Football. He may bounce back this week, but I expect him to see quite a bit of Jason Verrett, who has been an elite cover corner. Verrett rarely ventures into the slot, so he likely won't shadow Jarvis Landry, and Parker struggled versus Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie last week. This week shapes up for a heavy dose of Landry.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): Don't chase last week's points. Agholor has done next to nothing all year, and outside of a 53-yard TD catch last week, he caught just 2-of-5 targets for 9 yards. You can't start him this week.

WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Buf): Crowder has shown over the past few weeks that he should only be under consideration if DeSean Jackson misses this game. Even if Jackson is out, Crowder's ceiling has settled in around 5 catches for 50 yards. You should be aiming higher with the season at stake.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Gordon continued his disappointing rookie campaign last week, adding a 13th straight game without a touchdown, but his role has been constant and even increasing down the stretch of the season. With this year a lost cause, the Chargers have started to lean on Gordon in situations where they used to go to Danny Woodhead. Gordon has had at least 13 touches in each of his past 6 games, and at least 49 scrimmage yards in each (over 60 in 4 of them). Of the 6 opponents he faced in that stretch, 5 were in the top-11 in run DVOA. Miami ranks 23rd. If he sees 15+ touches, Gordon is a decent bet to top 75 yards and just might find his way to his first TD of the year.

RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 15: @SD): On the other side of the Miami-San Diego game, Jay Ajayi isn't a consideration for the fantasy playoffs, but he could be an intriguing punt play in DFS tournaments. The Dolphins are now mathematically out of the playoff race, and Ajayi could see an expanded role down the stretch. San Diego is 31st in run DVOA and has allowed 100+ RB rushing yards in 10 of 13 games this year. There is really nice upside if Ajayi can find his way to double-digit touches.

WR Adam Humphries, TB (Wk. 15: @StL): Admittedly, Humphries would be a hard sell to play in just about any but the most insanely deep fantasy games, but I like this spot for him. He did only haul in one catch last week for a 6-yard touchdown, but with V-Jax out and Evans facing a tough matchup with Trumaine Johnson, the ball has to go somewhere. I still expect 7-10 targets to go to Evans, but Humphries should see a handful as well, and he's topped 50 yards twice this season. I like his chances to put up a career-high yardage day.

TE Tyler Kroft, CIN (Wk. 15: @SF): Ok, you can't trust a guy with just 4 catches on the season in your fantasy playoffs...I get it. But, there is some DFS punt play appeal. 2nd-string QBs tend to have a rapport with 2nd-string pass catchers, and Eifert's status is likely in doubt this week as he suffered a concussion in the week he returned from a neck stinger. Kroft pulled in 2 catches for 31 yards in relief of Eifert on Sunday, and he could see a bigger role in a game the Bengals should win easily. The 49ers rank 23rd in pass DVOA on throws to tight ends.

TE Blake Bell, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): The Belldozer has put up stat lines of 3-68 and 3-49 in two of his past 3 games, and is in line to start at TE again if Vance McDonald is out once more. Bell actually led the team in receiving last week against the Browns. He's a streaming option in super deep leagues as the starting tight end on a team that likes to utilize the position.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you advance to the title game (or to the semis if your league goes through week 17. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about something I wrote, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.