I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 9 was a tough one for us here. A lot of outlooks changed after the report posted. Most notably, Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending leg injury. That threw a wrench into the expectations for Marlon Mack and D’Onta Foreman along with Watson’s. Leonard Fournette was suspended for breaking team rules right before their game with the Bengals, likely sending people scrambling for a running back. Hopefully you were able to find an adequate replacement. Hopefully things go a little more according to plan this week. The number of byes in week 10 drops to 4 (KC, PHI, OAK, BAL), so you shouldn’t be quite as hard pressed to fill gaps as the last two weeks. With the Chiefs and Eagles on bye, we won’t get to dive into what’s wrong with Kareem Hunt or talk up Corey Clement’s garbage time bonanza, but we will talk about all of the fantasy relevant rookies who are playing this week. Let’s jump in and take a look at the week 10 slate…
Rookies to Start:
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): The Chargers have allowed 8 running backs to finish as a weekly top-20 back, and Fournette has landed in the top 14 backs in all 6 weeks he’s played (top-10 4 times). As long as he doesn’t suddenly get benched on Sunday again, he should be a safe RB1 again. The Chargers allow the 2nd-most rushing yards per game. Fournette will cost a bundle in DFS games, but he may be worth the price. He should be a chalk play in cash games.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): McCaffrey finally saw a spike in his rushing usage last week. It only took two early Jonathan Stewart fumbles to get us here, but McCaffrey handled a season-high 15 rushing attempts, and he actually had success, picking up 66 yards and a score (the score probably should’ve been ruled a pass play, but I digress). The Panthers said they traded Kelvin Benjamin to open things up for the running game, and for at least one week, it worked. McCaffrey’s receiving floor has already proven solid this year with at least 4 catches and 28 receiving yards in every single game so far. The rushing usage could be the key to unlocking his ceiling if it continues. The Dolphins aren’t a great matchup for him, but CMC has been at least a flex play every week. I’d look for him to be a safe RB2 in all formats this week, with higher upside in PPR.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 10: @Buf.): Kamara put on a show last weekend with 31.2 PPR points, good enough to be the overall RB1 for the week. His point total has gone up each week since the Saints traded away Adrian Peterson. The matchup gets a little tougher this week, but the Bills have had some struggles vs. RBs lately. They allowed only one team’s RBs to top 20 PPR points in the first 6 games of the year, but have allowed 35 or more to the position in each of the last 2. Kamara should be an easy RB2 again this week. His price tag in DFS has finally caught up with his production a bit, but he should still be a strong option there as well.
TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 10: @SF): Engram has 29 targets in the 3 games since Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall were hurt, and he’s posted 15-212-3 with at least 60 yards and a score in each game. The return of Sterling Shepard last week didn’t cut into his volume at all, as he was targeted 10 times in week 9. The 49ers do limit TE production, allowing the 6th-fewest points per game to the position, but Engram is a featured part of this offense. The buckets of volume he should continue to see make him a top-3 TE option this week with Ertz & Kelce on byes.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Mixon should continue to return much the same value we’ve seen over the past several weeks. He’s scored between 8 and 14 points in PPR scoring each and every week since Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator. That range is uninspiring, but it can be usable. The Bengals’ shoddy o-line play has severely limited Mixon’s upside. The Titans do have a decent run defense, ranking 12th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but Mixon should still get his typical volume. That’ll keep him in play as a floor RB2/flex option as usual.
RB Aaron Jones, GB (Wk. 10: @Chi.): I actually like Jones this week, but it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in him after Monday night. Ty Montgomery has re-appeared and Head Coach Mike McCarthy has said TyMo will handle passing downs going forward. Against the Bears, I do like the Packers’ chances of being able to run on early downs, which would work in Jones’s favor. The Bears are actually a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which is incredible. That would make you think game script will favor Montgomery, but I’m not convinced. The Bears do allow the 11th-most RB points per game. If Green Bay is able to keep the game tight or play with a lead, Jones should be able to return solid value as a flex option. If they play from behind, I’d be less optimistic. Go with your gut on how you think this game will go. If I had to guess, I like Jones to outscore Montgomery.
RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 10: vs. Pit.): Mack is in play again this week with the Colts a 10-point underdog at home. They lucked into facing Tom Savage last week, and were able to play in a positive game script for once, which undoubtedly hurt Mack’s output. I’d expect him to get a healthier dose of passing game work in this one. I’m not bullish on Mack’s prospects of finding the end zone though. The Steelers haven’t allowed a running back receiving score all year, and the Colts have run the ball from inside the 5-yard line just 4 times all year, and 3 of them were Robert Turbin carries. If you’re desperate for a fill-in back with some upside this week, Mack fits the bill, but it’s likely there are better plays available.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 10: @Ind.): JuJu gets a great matchup this week and is coming off his best game of the year before last week’s bye, but I’m not ready to go all-in on JJSS this week. As mentioned above, the Steelers are a 10-point road favorite and may not need to throw a lot as the game goes on. They also will have Martavis Bryant back, and he could get some squeaky wheel treatment after complaining about his role in the offense (I know he got suspended for those complaints, but they still may try to get him more involved). The Colts will also be without Vontae Davis, which means Antonio Brown should be able to do anything he wants to against this secondary. The Colts allow the 7th-most WR points per game and have allowed the most 20+ yard completions in the league. The matchup is ripe for JuJu to have a big day, but there are plenty of concerns as to just how much volume he’s going to see. He’s a WR3 option this week with some boom-or-bust to him.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): The Texans have really struggled to slow down opposing WRs in the two games since their bye, coughing up an absurd 105 PPR points to the position total in those games. The Rams’ passing attack looked great against the Giants last week, and it may be Kupp’s turn to score a TD this week after Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins combined for 3 TDs last Sunday. Per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld, 27.7% of Kupp’s targets have come in the red zone, the highest percentage of any WR in the league. Volume could be a problem with the Rams a 12-point favorite, but if Kupp finds the end zone he should return decent value as a flex or WR3.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. GB): As I mentioned above for Aaron Jones, the Bears are stunningly favored to beat the Packers. If the game goes the way Vegas expects it to, the Bears should go back to the run-heavy game plan they’d been employing prior to the Saints game. Trubisky threw 32 pass attempts against New Orleans in that game. It was the most he’s thrown in a game. 24 teams average more attempts than that per game. The Pack can be thrown on, but I don’t expect Trubisky to throw enough to be even a usable QB2.
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 10: @Det.): As long as the Browns continue to let Kizer start, there will be some sneaky spots to use him once Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon are into the lineup. This week is not one of them. The Lions have allowed just one top-12 QB all year, and have kept 5 QBs out of the top-20. That list includes Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning and Carson Palmer. The Lions are currently tied for 3rd in the NFL in takeaways, and no QB has turned the ball over more than Kizer. This is a great spot to play the Detroit defense.
RB RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 10: @TB): The Bucs have given up 7 running back scores in the past 4 games, and McGuire did just handle 14 touches last Thursday, but he’s still stuck behind Forte and Powell. As bad as the Bucs have been, it’s still hard to imagine the Jets blowing them out in Tampa by enough that McGuire gets extended run. Forte was held out of practice Wednesday, so monitor the situation as the week goes on. It’s likely just a precautionary measure, but McGuire would have pretty decent upside this week if Forte is out.
RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): Despite the 49ers having limited options on offense thanks to a litany of injuries (Kittle, Garcon, Trent Taylor), I wouldn’t expect big things from Breida this week. He’s been the clear second fiddle to Hyde for several weeks now, and I’d expect SF to lean on Hyde again this week. He was targeted an absurd 11 times in the loss to Arizona last weekend. Breida will continue to handle the scraps, but that isn’t enough to make him an intriguing option this week.
RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 10: @LAR): The Texans’ offense with Tom Savage at the helm just doesn’t generate enough production to consider playing the number 2 running back, even in a plus matchup like this one.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Zay Jones was written off earlier this year (by me and others) due to historic inefficiency, but he appears to have gotten his rookie season back on track in the last 2 weeks. He had his best game as a pro last Thursday with a 6-53-1 line. Unfortunately he got dinged up in that game. Jones was able to play much of the 2nd half last week after being injured, so there is a real chance he plays this week, but he’s not practicing as of Wednesday. If he does play, his volume will likely take a big hit with Kelvin Benjamin getting up to speed and Charles Clay likely returning. I’d shy away even if Zay is a go.
WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): It was nice to see Samuel get more involved in the passing game with Kelvin Benjamin gone. The 3 catches, 23 yards and 5 targets were all season-highs (5 targets tied his season-high), and he tacked on a 14-yard rush as well. I’d expect his role to continue to grow moving forward, but I don’t like his prospects for this week. Both the Panthers and Dolphins like to slow the game down, and that will limit the total number of plays and overall passing volume. The Dolphins have allowed the 10th-fewest WR points per game, and have faced the 2nd-fewest overall pass attempts against. That limited volume curtails the upside that Samuel has this week. He’s still just the 3rd option in the passing game at best. I’d expect somewhere around 25 passing attempts for Cam, and Funchess and CMC are averaging a combined 16 targets per game
WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Westbrook’s return from IR was delayed last week, and may be again. The Jaguars have said they aren’t sure if he’ll be activated this week. If he is, he should push Keelan Cole to the bench in 3WR sets. Even if Westbrook suits up, I’d be hard-pressed to trot him out there in any formats this week. Jacksonville should have their way with the Chargers on the ground, and the team has averaged just 178 passing yards per game when Fournette is in the lineup. Westbrook could be an interesting punt option in DFS tournaments if Marqise Lee sits, but there won’t be a ton of passing volume for the Jaguars in this one.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 10: @Jax): The Jaguars erase wide receivers. They allow the fewest points per game to the position in the league, and the Chargers have averaged 8 completions per game to WRs in their past 4 contests. I’m not even sure I trust Keenan Allen this week, let alone Williams.
WR Josh Malone, CIN (Wk. 10: @Ten.): I mention Malone because he now has 7 targets in the last two weeks, and Cincy does face a weak pass defense on Sunday. You still should avoid him. The Bengals have been a low-volume attack and I’d look for them to try and spark AJ Green in this one.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Even if Golladay finally returns to the lineup for Detroit, Stafford seems to have found a great rhythm with Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, and Kenny would still split snaps with TJ Jones for the WR3 spot. The Lions are also a 12-point favorite, so they should stray a little from their typically pass-heavy play calling. There is more risk than upside for Golladay this week.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 10: @Det.): The Lions have allowed a league-low 26 catches to opposing TEs on the year, and Njoku continues to split time with Seth DeValve. Until that changes, he’ll continue to be a low-upside TD dart throw. You typically don’t want to play a TD dart throw option in a game where the team’s implied total is only about 15 and a half points.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): With Jameis sidelined, OJ’s already limited fantasy prospects get even more limited. You could argue Howard could get more usage as a receiver with Mike Evans out, but there’s a different guy I expect to pick up that slack that I’ll get to in a moment. I’d avoid Howard this week.
TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Everett is always capable of putting up a long catch and the Texans are allowing the 6th-most TE points per game, but you’d have to be pretty desperate to trot out Everett. He played just 15 offensive snaps last week compared to 50 for teammate Tyler Higbee.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): As long as he gets the start, Beathard is in play as a streamer in 2QB leagues. Kyle Shanahan left the door open for Jimmy Garoppolo to start with comments to the media on Wednesday, but I’d expect it to be CJ. There’s no reason to rush Jimmy with the season already lost and a bye following this game. There are some concerns for Beathard, as the Niners are without George Kittle, Pierre Garcon, and Trent Taylor. Instead, his targets will be Hyde, Garrett Celek, Marquise Goodwin, and Aldrick Robinson. The matchup is still a pretty good one. The Giants have allowed 3 passing scores in 4 of their past 5 games, and allowed over 250 passing yards in all 5. Beathard is likely to put up less than the 23.7 points per game the Giants have allowed to QBs in that stretch, but there is still some upside to be had.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. GB): It’ll be tough to trust Cohen in season-long lineups after he handled just 6 touches in the past 2 games combined, but the Bears know they need to get him more involved. The Packers rank 25th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs, and Cohen is their most explosive pass catcher out of the backfield. He should be an intriguing punt options for DFS tournaments, but is probably a little too volatile to use anywhere else.
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 10: @SF): While it appears Orleans Darkwa has taken over the lead back role for the G-Men, Gallman hasn’t completely disappeared. He handled 9 carries last week, and this week the Giants face a 49ers team that has allowed the most rushing yards per game and 2nd-most rushing TDs in the league. Darkwa is a huge upside play this week, but I think some of the benefits spill over to Gallman. He did out-snap Darkwa in week 7 before the bye.
WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been excellent at limiting WRs (they allow the 4th-fewest points per game to the position), but they struggled badly to contain Marqise Lee last Sunday. Davis looked healthy and played 75% of the offensive snaps. Head Coach Mike Mularkey said that his snap count is going to increase moving forward. With DeMarco Murray ailing, the Titans could lean on the pass a bit more this week, and Davis should be basically a full-time player. There are worse options you could go to if you need a fill-in WR. Davis was targeted 5 times last Sunday, and I’d expect at least that number again.
WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): With Mike Evans suspended for this game, Godwin should move into a starting role. He’ll have Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball, which doesn’t seem ideal, but Godwin likely catches a lot of balls from Fitz in practice since both are on the 2nd team. I’d also expect the Jets’ top corner Mo Claiborne to be contending more with DeSean Jackson than Godwin. The Jets allow the 9th-most points per game to WRs, and Godwin has been impressive whenever he’s been given a chance. He’s in a great spot and costs the minimum in DraftKings.
WR ArDarius Stewart, NYJ (Wk. 10: @TB): Stewart has been irrelevant so far this year, but his role is worth monitoring this week with Jeremy Kerley suspended for the next 4 games. Stewart looked poised to be the starting slot WR before Kerley was cut by the 49ers. Stewart is probably unlikely to make a fantasy impact in these 4 weeks with the Jets favoring Kearse, ASJ and Robby Anderson, but the Bucs do allow the 2nd-most WR points per game. Don’t be shocked if Stewart has a decent game out of nowhere.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some lineup decisions wherever you have rookies. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to check before kickoff that there aren’t any surprise inactives like Fournette last week. If you have any questions or want to rant at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully, the bye weeks didn’t hit you too hard last week. If you’re lucky you had Deshaun Watson or one of his two WRs to help you get through. The Texans may have come up short against Seattle, but Watson shredded one of the league’s better defenses. He just might be matchup-proof going forward. A few other rookies had stellar performances as well. JuJu Smith-Schuster has cemented himself as the #1 rookie WR for 2017 after posting 32.3 PPR points in prime time Sunday night with Martavis Bryant sitting. Josh Malone grabbed his first career catches and scored his first TD on Sunday for Cincinnati. I wouldn’t expect him to have a big role moving forward though. It was a lower scoring week for RBs, but Alvin Kamara, Matt Breida, and Marlon Mack all turned in quality performances. Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon and Kareem Hunt were less impressive this week but still posted respectable days as well. There are another 6 teams on bye in week 9, so this could be another one where your lineup is a patchwork that could be pieced together by a couple rookies. With that in mind, let’s dive in and see what’s in store for the rookie crop this week…
(A couple notes: All point totals or points per game stats are based on PPR scoring, and players within the same position and same header are listed in order that I would play them):
Rookies to Start:
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): The matchup is a juicy one for Watson this week. The Colts have allowed 300+ passing yards in 5 of their 8 games (and 295 in one of the other 3), and they’ve allowed at least one passing TD each week as well. Watson has been the QB1 or QB2 overall in each of his past 4 starts. Indy has allowed 10 more passes of 20+ yards than any other team in the league, and the Texans are tied for the 5th-most 20+ yard pass plays on offense. Watson is an easy top-5 option this week (probably higher). He’s really pricey in DFS this week, checking in at $800 more than any other QB in DraftKings and $1,100 more than any other in FanDuel. At those prices, I might look at other options in GPP tournaments, but if he hits his ceiling once again you’ll regret not having him in there. He should be chalk in cash games.
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 9: @Dal.): Hunt is a great bet to get back on track this week. The Denver defense was a daunting matchup on Monday night, and it resulted in Hunt’s worst game to-date. The Cowboys aren’t nearly as daunting. Dallas allows the 13th-most RB points per game and ranked 31st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat before facing Washington’s hapless rushing attack in week 8. It’ll be hard to trust Hunt at his price tag in DFS tournaments after he failed to return value in plus matchups with Pittsburgh & Oakland, but he should be a great option in cash games and locked in as your RB1 in regular lineups. He’s overdue for a big game.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Cin.): He’s had two weeks off with the bye to recover from his ankle injury, so he should be ready to roll this week. The Bengals have allowed 24+ PPR points to opposing RBs in 3 of their last 4 games, and when healthy Fournette handles the vast majority of the backfield touches. He should return to RB1 status this week. He might even have less competition for goal-line work if the Jaguars decide to make TJ Yeldon active instead of Chris Ivory this week. Yeldon flashed in a big way during Fournette’s week 7 absence. Prior to week 7, Fournette had handled 16 red zone carries, and Ivory had handled 4. Regardless of who suits up as LF’s number 2, he should be in your lineup this week.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Tampa Bay has allowed the 10th-most RB points per game this season, and Kamara has been the RB22, RB12, and RB9 in the 3 games since Adrian Peterson was traded to Arizona. He’s been outscored by Mark Ingram each week, but he’s closed the gap in the snap count in each of the last 3 weeks and topped 50% of the snaps in week 8 for the first time since week 1. He actually played the same number of offensive snaps as Ingram against the Bears. We’ve seen there’s clearly enough volume in this offense to support two starting fantasy backs, but Kamara’s role continues to grow. The matchup this week isn’t a scary one, so Kamara should be fired up once again as a solid RB2 with upside for more.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 9: @Jax.): Mixon’s game was salvaged by a long screen pass last week but was otherwise a lackluster showing. He put up just 18 yards on 11 carries on the ground. I’d still go back to the well with Mixon this week. The Jaguars rank 32nd in run defense DVOA, and still allow the most rushing yards per game (138.6) and highest yards per carry average in the league (5.2). Things may get better up front for Jacksonville with the acquisition on Marcell Dareus, but I doubt he has that big of an impact this week. Mixon hasn’t really shown the ceiling yet, but I’m in on him as an RB2 for week 9. He’s still underpriced on DraftKings at $5,100 this week.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Atl.): With the surprising trade of Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills there are more passing targets to go around for Carolina. Atlanta has allowed the most RB receptions per game through the first 8 weeks, and McCaffrey has 6 more catches than any other RB thus far. Even without much rushing production, McCaffrey should be a safe RB2 in PPR formats, and a dicey flex in standard leagues. The Falcons don’t give up a ton of yards on all of those RB catches, so I’d probably shy away in DFS lineups.
RB Aaron Jones, GB (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): The matchup doesn’t really qualify as good or bad this week for Jones. The Lions have allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game, but also the 12th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Jones seems to have a firm grasp on the lead back role after playing 80% of the snaps against the Saints before the week 8 bye, and the game plan figures to be run-heavy with Brett Hundley at the helm. Volume alone should get Jones into RB2 range, but you always worry about Ty Montgomery lurking over his shoulder.
TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): The Rams have been tough on tight ends so far this season, allowing the 4th-fewest TE points per game, but Engram has been the focal point of the Giants’ passing attack since the receiver group was decimated by injuries. He’s seen at least 7 targets in 5 of 7 games, and has seen 19 total in the past 2 games since Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard were all injured against the Chargers. He’s made good on that volume, finishing as the TE3 and TE4 in those contests. He’s a top-5 option again this week despite a tougher draw and the likely return of Shepard.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 9: @Hou.): Mack out-snapped and outscored Frank Gore for the 2nd time in as many weeks last Sunday. The Colts are huge underdogs again this weekend, and Mack has been targeted 11 times in the past 2 games. I’d expect more of the same usage this week. The Texans have been stingy to opposing backs, allowing the 2nd fewest fantasy points per game to the position, but they have given up 3 receiving TDs to RBs. Mack is a sneaky flex play in PPR and half-PPR leagues, and a better option than Gore again this week.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 9: @NYG): The suspension of Janoris Jenkins could be a good thing for Kupp this week. While on the surface, it seems to be a plus for Sammy Watkins, who Jenkins would likely be covering all day, the suspension also gets Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of the slot where Kupp lines up most often. DRC has allowed an average of just 2.5 catches and 29.5 yards per game into his coverage, and has coughed up just one TD. It will benefit Kupp to not have to face him. I wouldn’t expect a huge bump in targets for Kupp, but he should be fairly efficient with them, and he’s the best bet to score a TD among the Rams WRs. Goff trusts him in the red zone. That keeps him in play as a PPR flex or WR3 option.
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Obviously, Jonnu shouldn’t be in your lineup if Delanie Walker plays, but it sounds like Walker’s status is in doubt as he deals with a bone bruise on his ankle. He may very well play, but he was spotted in a walking boot just last week and isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. The Ravens have allowed 6 TDs to opposing tight ends in 8 games, and Walker is averaging 7 targets per game. If Delanie is held out, Jonnu is a fine streaming option for deeper leagues. He wouldn’t automatically see the same target share Delanie has been seeing, but 4-6 targets would be a reasonable expectation.
Rookies to Sit:
QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Despite the Cardinals allowing the 3rd-most QB points per game, Beathard has shown that you shouldn’t really trust him even in great matchups. It’s a messy week in 2-QB leagues this week with the 6 byes, so you might be forced to go with Beathard. There is some solace to be had in the fact that he’s topped 10 points each week, but not much. He’s no more than a desperation QB2 if you have just about no other options. I wouldn’t go near him in DFS lineups.
RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals are allowing the 10th-fewest RB points per game, and despite his TD last week, Breida has still averaged just 6 touches per game in the past 3 weeks. The 32% of the snaps he played last week was the highest he saw in those 3 games, but the matchup this week is too tough to expect Breida to make hay on that limited of a snap count.
RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. Den.): Although the Eagles are again a comfortable favorite, I don’t see Clement piling up 10 garbage time carries again this week. Even if he does, I’d be stunned if he manages to top 50 yards again. He goes from facing the defense that allows the most RB points per game last week to the one that allows the fewest this week. It’s not a recipe for success for a part-time player like Clement.
WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Davis should return this week from the ankle injury that’s sidelined him since week 2, but I’m not quite ready to throw him into the fire in fantasy lineups. He may be eased back in, and he gets a gauntlet the first few weeks back. The Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers all rank in the top-5 in the league at limiting WR fantasy points. If you have the space to stash him, his schedule opens up a ton after that. The following 4 opponents after the AFC North stretch all rank in the bottom 13, including the dumpster fires that are the Colts and 49ers. There are better days ahead for Davis, but you should exercise caution with him for now.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 9: @GB): Golladay does return to a good matchup if he’s able to get back on the field this week, but he’ll be little more than a TD dart throw. He may struggle to keep up with the Joneses (Marvin and TJ), who have both played well while Kenny was sidelined. TJ has likely earned a split of the WR3 reps with Golladay, so it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach before putting Babytron back into lineups.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Zay finally had a reasonably efficient game last weekend with 3 catches on 5 targets for 32 yards. It’s not a week you can use for fantasy purposes, as he was just the WR46 for the week in PPR scoring, but it’s something for him to build on. At least, it would have been if the Bills didn’t go out and trade for Kelvin Benjamin. He may get one more chance to showcase what he can do this week since KB was acquired 2 days before this week’s tilt with the Jets, but there’s no reason to try him in your lineup. He’s droppable even in deep redraft leagues since his targets will likely be cut in half the rest of the way.
WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Cin.): Dede might be worth stashing in deeper leagues, and should certainly be owned in dynasty formats, but this is probably not the best week to use him. The Bengals allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game, and the Jaguars attempt the 3rd-fewest passes per game. Since Jacksonville is a 4-point favorite this week, I don’t see them having to deviate much from their run-heavy game plan in this one. Keep an eye on Westbrook’s usage, but keep him out of the lineup.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Kittle has shown pretty clearly in the past 2 weeks that the Iowa connection hasn’t carried over to the NFL level. Arizona is a tougher matchup on tight ends than the Eagles were, and Philly held Kittle to 2-22 on 4 targets. Kittle has seen just 6 targets in 2 games with Beathard as the starter after getting 7 targets from him in week 6 when CJ relieved Hoyer. I don’t expect a spike in targets this week. There are likely better streaming options available.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 9: @NO): After posting a career game in week 7, Howard came back down to Earth last Sunday with 2-16 on 2 targets. He remains behind Cameron Brate as a pass-catching TE for Tampa. Howard’s athleticism will allow him to post a big game here or there if the defense doesn’t account for him, but it’s hard to predict when those games will come. You could use Howard in DFS tournaments as a shoot-the-moon option, but he’s a volatile play.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): The Rams allow the 2nd-most RB points per game, and Gallman hasn’t totally disappeared from the offense despite Orleans Darkwa’s breakout 100-yard game. Gallman actually played 1 more snap than Darkwa the week after that game. His production has been minimal, but if he manages to play 35% or more of the snaps again in this plus matchup, he could be in play as a DFS tournament punt option, or as a desperation flex in the deepest of leagues with so many byes on tap.
RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Foreman’s usage pattern has been pretty easy to get a read on in hindsight, and this week, it may be pretty easy to guess how he’ll be used beforehand. In the Texans’ 4 losses, Foreman has averaged 4 touches and 33 scrimmage yards per game. He’s averaged 12 touches and 48 yards in their wins. The Texans are 13-point favorites this week. I’d expect there to be ample garbage time against a Colts’ team that has allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. If he gets his typical usage for wins and manages to find the end zone, he likely winds up a top-30 RB for the week. You could do worse if looking for a fill in for deeper leagues. He’s a better option in standard formats rather than PPR.
WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Pierre Garcon is likely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson once again this week, and the last time the 49ers faced the Cardinals that resulted in 10 targets for Trent. He posted 5 catches and 47 yards in that game, out-producing Garcon in the process. The Cardinals have proven to be vulnerable to all wide receivers that Peterson doesn’t shadow, They’ve allowed the 4th-most WR points per game despite Pat Pete allowing just 5 catches and 60 yards on balls thrown into his coverage all year according to RotoWorld’s Targets & Touches. Even with Beathard at QB, Taylor is an intriguing punt option for GPP tournaments and costs the minimum on DraftKings.
WR Ryan Switzer, DAL (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Cole Beasley suffered a concussion and is likely to miss this game. It appears it’ll be Switzer who gets the nod in the slot in a nice matchup against the Chiefs. KC allows the 2nd-most WR points per game. Beasley hasn’t been a consistent option with just under 4.5 targets per game, but the looming Ezekiel Elliott suspension could change the calculus of the Cowboys’ short passing game. Dallas is likely to be less effective running the ball without him, and they also lose the best receiver they have out of the backfield. Switzer may soak up several more targets than expected this week. With a minimum DFS price tag, he could surprise as a DFS punt play. I would disregard this if Zeke manages to avoid a suspension this week.
WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Atl.): After the Kelvin Benjamin trade, Samuel is likely to be elevated to the WR2 in Carolina behind Devin Funchess. He offers a much different skill set than Funch & KB, and should be a better complement to Funchess. Russell Shepard will likely man the slot in the new-look passing attack. I don’t think this is the best opportunity to use Samuel, but I do believe he’s worth a stash in deeper leagues. Atlanta doesn’t allow many big plays in the passing game (just 1 completion against them for 40+ yards), and Samuel’s speed is his best asset. He’s only been targeted 14 times on the season, but KB’s departure frees up 6.5 targets per game and the Panthers have found ways to use Samuel in the running game as well. Keep an eye on what the rookie does this week.
TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 9: @NYG): If you’re really desperate at tight end, the Giants have allowed at least 45 receiving yards and a touchdown to the tight end position in every game this year. Tyler Higbee is the starter and probably seems like the better play, but Everett has the only TD between the two and averages more than 5 more yards per target than Higbee. Of course, Higbee has more targets, but Everett has been the better downfield threat.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with some of those more difficult lineup decisions and helps you get through another week that’s heavy with byes. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. A lot can change as the week goes on with guys like Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed, Sterling Shepard, Emmanuel Sanders and anyone else that might affect your lineups. Make sure to check before kickoff on Sunday (or Thursday) to see who’s active. Feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything included above. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now passed the halfway point of the regular season. Hopefully your teams are doing pretty well, because things are about to get a little dicey in the next 2 weeks. There are 6 teams off each week, the most we’ll see in any weeks this year. It’s going to create some holes in your lineups, and finding the right guys to fill those gaps will be critical. At least a few rookies may be peaking at the right time to help out. OJ Howard was the TE1 last weekend. David Njoku had the longest catch of his career so far. Aaron Jones clearly took over as the lead back in Green Bay, and Marlon Mack out-snapped Frank Gore for the first time this year. There are plenty of other rookies who are poised to play bigger roles as the season wears on like Corey Davis (pick him up this week if you have the roster spot to do it), Kenny Golladay, Austin Ekeler and John Ross among others. Let’s dive in and discuss what to expect for week 8…
Rookies to Start:
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): Denver has allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game (all scoring stats in PPR scoring unless otherwise noted) and ranks 1st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and Hunt hasn’t finished higher than the RB10 in the past 4 weeks despite a couple of good matchups. You still have to start him. He’s been at least an RB2 every week, and the daunting matchup isn’t enough to make me act crazy and bench him. He’s a contrarian play for DFS tournaments this week.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): The Colts were stingy against the run to start the year, allowing just 67 RB rush yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry in the first 3 weeks. They’ve allowed 136.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry since. Mixon voiced some displeasure after last week’s game about getting zero carries in the 2nd half after piling up 48 yards on 7 first half carries. Head Coach Marvin Lewis called the comments immature, but I think he got the message. Even if he didn’t, with the Bengals a 10-point favorite in this game, they might not have any choice but to run in the 2nd half. The Colts have coughed up the 2nd-most RB points per game so far, and I expect Mixon to still be the lead back despite the Lewis’s comments. Mixon has RB1 upside this week and should be a staple in DFS lineups at just $4,700 in DraftKings.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): While the biggest beneficiary of the Saints’ Adrian Peterson trade has been Mark Ingram, it’s also given a boost to Kamara. He’s played 42% and 49% of the snaps in the two games since Peterson was jettisoned, the highest rates since he cracked 50% in week 1. He’s put up 87 scrimmage yards on 13 touches and 107 scrimmage yards on 14 touches in those two games. Kamara has now scored double-digit points in PPR formats in 4 straight games, and what’s been most impressive is the ability he’s shown as a runner. His receiving upside could be somewhat limited by the Bears, who have allowed the 6th-fewest RB receiving yards in the league, but I don’t expect that to hold him back. The Bears rank 16th in run defense DVOA, have been banged up at linebacker (Willie Young and Jerrell Freeman on IR), and the Saints are a 9-point favorite this week. The positive game script and decent matchup should make Kamara a solid RB2 this weekend.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 8: @TB): Another NFL week, another week where McCaffrey looks to be a solid RB2, but he may have some upside for more this week. The Bucs have really been scuffling against RBs in the past 3 weeks. They’ve allowed 28.9 points per game to running backs in the past 3, which would be 3rd-most in the league if they averaged that for the year. Tampa Bay has been more vulnerable in the red zone to running backs running the ball rather than catching it out of the backfield, allowing 5 rushing TDs to backs compared to just 1 receiving score, but they’ve still allowed 6 catches and 45.5 receiving yards per game to them. Tampa ranks in the bottom half of the league in receiving points allowed to RBs per game. That’s should suit McCaffrey just fine. CMC has established himself as the lead back for the Panthers after playing 74% of the offensive snaps last week compared to 39% for J-Stew, and he may finally hit that ceiling we’ve all been waiting for. It should be a great week to fire up McCaffrey, and he’ll be could be a nice piece in DFS lineups if he makes good on his potential in this plus matchup.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Watson has been a tremendous fantasy QB so far, but this week he gets his toughest test to-date. If you are in a 1-QB league, I would certainly be considering other options if decent ones are available. No quarterback has scored 20 points against the Seahawks this year, and only Aaron Rodgers and Marcus Mariota have topped 10. Seattle allows the 4th-fewest QB points per game, ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 2nd-lowest QB rating against. Watson’s rushing ability adds a little bit of a boost to his floor, but this isn’t a great spot to trot him out there. Watson is averaging nearly 23 fantasy points per game, so it isn’t like he’s going to suddenly be held to 5 points. He’s still a fine play in 2-QB formats. I’m just pointing out that he’s far from an automatic start in 1-QB formats thanks to the difficult matchup.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 8: @NO): With so many running backs on bye this week, Cohen is worth considering, especially if Benny Cunningham sits again. Cohen only played 18% of the snaps last weekend and handled just 1 touch (a 70-yard reception), but the game script worked against him. The Bears were ahead for much of that game. I’d expect a reversal of fortunes this week against the red-hot Saints. New Orleans has allowed the most RB catches per game and most RB receiving yards per game, and that’s where Cohen’s bread is buttered. The Bears will still likely try and limit Trubisky’s passing volume, but there might not be any way to avoid throwing when they fall behind. Cohen is back in play as a PPR flex option.
RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 8: @Cin.): It was exciting for Mack owners to see him out-snap Frank Gore for the first time last weekend, but much of that had to do with game script. The Colts trailed 14-0 in the first quarter, and never got themselves into the game. The good news for Mack: This week’s game script is likely to set up the same way. The Bengals haven’t played great so far, but even they are a 10-point favorite this week. Gore will still factor in here and the Bengals have allowed the 12th-fewest RB points per game, so it isn’t all roses for Mack, but Cincy also allows 6.5 receptions per game to running backs. With the limited slate of games, Mack is certainly in play as a flex option, and an enticing DFS tournament play at just $4,000 in DraftKings.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 8: @Det.): I can’t imagine all of the Martavis drama results in more playing time from Bryant, and at least for week 8 it’s got him benched completely. JuJu was already an intriguing option this week before the announcement came about Martavis. There was some worry about JuJu being in the concussion protocol, but he practiced in full Wednesday. With Bryant out, JJSS may get to move to the outside a bit and will likely avoid both Quandre Diggs and Darius Slay, who have been Detroit’s two best corners. The Lions allow the 11th-most WR points per game. Smith-Schuster has a great opportunity to post a WR3 game this week.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Golladay is back at practice this week and should be good to go for Sunday night. Golden Tate is expected to miss this game (monitor the situation, Tate got in a limited practice Wed.), and the Lions are going to need someone to pick up the slack of the 8 targets per game that he averages. The Steelers have allowed the fewest WR points per game, but among the teams they’ve played, only Cleveland throws the ball nearly as much as Detroit does, and the Browns don’t really have a QB or WRs. The Browns throw it on 63.97% of their offensive plays, while the Lions throw on 63.43%. No other Pittsburgh opponent throws even 59% of the time. If Tate does sit, the volume should be there for Golladay to be an upside flex option in a week with so many byes. He’s worth grabbing as a fallback if you’re waiting on the status of another WR who’s questionable to suit up.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Kittle was targeted just twice in a 30-point loss to the Cowboys last week in which CJ Beathard threw 38 times. I believed in the Iowa connection, but those results weren’t promising. I still might be willing to go back to the well this week. The Eagles aren’t exactly a great matchup for TEs, or at least they weren’t. With the injury to Jordan Hicks, that may change. Hicks had a 90.0 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus last year and was at 71.5 so far this season. The Eagles were shredded by Jordan Reed after the injury occurred on Monday. Of course Kittle isn’t Reed, but I like his chances at a bounce back in another game where the 49ers should be throwing a ton. He’s a decent streamer option or bye week filler for deeper leagues.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 8: @NO): The Bears have been running the ball on 68.9% of their offensive snaps with Trubisky as starter (per PFF’s Scott Barrett), and he’s attempted 23 passes in the past 2 weeks combined. They’re likely to have to throw a bit more to keep pace with New Orleans, but the Saints have actually been pretty stingy to opposing QBs during their 4-game win streak. They’ve allowed just 10.2 fantasy points per game and 187 passing yards per game to opposing QBs in that 4-game span. Couple that with the fact the Bears will still try to limit his volume, and it’s easy to see Trubisky should be avoided this week.
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): The Browns have decided to go back to Kizer once again this week, but the in-game benchings can’t be good for this kid’s development. He gets a brutal matchup this week across the pond against a Viking defense that has allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game. I’d expect more of the same from Kizer in this one – turnovers. He’s failed to reach 4 fantasy points in each of his last 3 starts, and I wouldn’t be stunned if that happens again Sunday.
RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Foreman has 3 games this season with 12 or more carries, but all 3 were wins, and 2 were blowouts. He has 13 carries combined in the Texans’ 3 losses. Seattle is a 6-point favorite and allows the 4th-fewest running back points per game. You have to pick your spots with a lower volume player like Foreman, and this isn’t a good spot to use him.
RB Matt Brieda, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Brieda has played just 32 offensive snaps and handled 9 touches total in the past 2 weeks after Kyle Shanahan proclaimed that he is on equal footing with Carlos Hyde. They may be showcasing Hyde for a trade, but as long as Carlos is on the roster it’ll be hard to trust Brieda. His limited role certainly isn’t a recipe for fantasy success against an Eagles team that allows the 8th-fewest running back points per game.
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): With Bilal Powell and Matt Forte both healthy last weekend, McGuire played just 7 offensive snaps and saw just 3 touches. He’ll go back into obscurity for now until one of those top 2 backs comes down with another ailment or the Jets nosedive out of playoff contention. We know they aren’t going to the playoffs, but at the moment they are just a game and a half out of the last wild card spot.
RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Perine played zero offensive snaps last week, yet somehow has a higher price tag in DraftKings than teammate Rob Kelley, who starts. That is absurd to me. Avoid Perine in all formats.
WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Taylor showed a connection with QB CJ Beathard last week with 5 catches, and the Eagles have been torched by slot WRs Sterling Shepard and Keenan Allen (runs about 55% of snaps from slot), but those guys were outliers. Outside of those two weeks, the Eagles have actually defended the slot pretty well, and Taylor is nowhere near as good as Shep or Allen. Taylor probably shouldn’t be a consideration for your lineup.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 8: @NE): Williams draws a great matchup with the Pats allowing the 3rd-most WR points per game, but Williams played just 24% of the snaps last week and was targeted only twice. He’s essentially splitting WR3 reps with Travis Benjamin, which puts a pretty big damper on his upside. Hopefully that will change in the coming weeks, but I can’t make a compelling argument for why you should expect it to change this week. There’s upside here, but also a floor of zero points that seems more likely than him making good on that upside.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. Oak.): Zay was targeted a season-high 9 times last Sunday, and he caught just 2 of them for 17 yards. He now had 7 catches for 83 yards on the season on 32 targets. His inefficiency and 22% catch rate are quickly becoming the stuff of legend. I wonder how much longer the Bills can keep forcing that kind of volume his way. There’s no reason to expect a positive change this week.
WR John Ross, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): It’s really disappointing that Ross didn’t manage to get healthy for last week’s game and get some reps in. You can’t throw him into lineups without seeing what his usage is going to look like first, but this would’ve been a great spot for him. Ross has exceptional deep speed and the Colts have allowed 40 passes of 20 or more yards this season. While it’s a bummer for Ross that he won’t be up to speed for this one, AJ Green may be the premiere WR play of the week.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): I would actually like Njoku as a sleeper this week if Cody Kessler had gotten the starting nod. Njoku’s snap rates are still troubling, as he played under 40% of the offensive snaps last week, but Kessler seemed to seek him out. 4 of Kessler’s 19 pass attempts went in Njoku’s direction, and he hauled in 2 of them for 31- and 27-yard gains. They were the two longest catches of his young career. Minnesota is right square in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending tight ends (16th-most points allowed per game), but they rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the position. There would be a case to be made for Njoku in deep enough leagues if Kessler were back under center.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Don’t chase last week’s points with Howard. Hopefully the increased targets are a sign of things to come for him, but Cameron Brate still ran more pass routes and was targeted more often last Sunday. 47% of Howard’s PPR production has come on 2 TDs against broken coverages where the defense let him get wide open. It’s hard to bank on that happening again this week, especially with the Panthers allowing the 7th-fewest tight end points per game.
Rookies on Byes: RB Leonard Fournette, JAX, RB Aaron Jones, GB, RB Wayne Gallman, NYG, WR Corey Davis, TEN, WR Taywan Taylor, TEN, WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, TE Evan Engram, NYG, TE Jonnu Smith, TEN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Beathard didn’t exactly set the world on fire in a favorable matchup last week, but he did manage to tally 14.4 fantasy points thanks to a garbage time rushing TD, and he gets a favorable draw again this week. Philly has been allowing a lot of garbage time passing stats this year. They’ve been ahead entering the 4th quarter in all 6 games they’ve won, and had a 2-score advantage in 3 of them. I’d expect them to be up double-digits entering the 4th this week. There should be plenty of time for Beathard to pad stats. Philly allows the 4th-most passing yards and 9th-most QB fantasy points per game. CJ is an intriguing streamer in 2-QB formats thanks to the byes.
RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 8: @NE): Ekeler found his way to a surprising 11 touches last week and was pretty effective with them, finishing as the PPR RB13 for the week. This may be point chasing, but he might be in play for you if you’re scrambling for a running back in deep PPR leagues. The Patriots have allowed the 5th-most RB points per game and the 2nd-most receptions and receiving yards to backs. The bulk of that will go to Melvin Gordon, but Ekeler clearly has established a role.
RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Clement may get a chance to pile up garbage time carries in a game where the Iggles are 13-point favorites. The 49ers allow the most running back points per game in the league, and they just let Rod Smith find his way to be the RB35 last week without even finding the end zone. That was with just 2 teams on bye. There are 6 this week. Clement’s usage makes him no more than a DFS tournament punt play this week. He was on the field for just 12 offensive snaps on Monday night.
WR Mack Hollins, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Hollins is a guy worth stashing in dynasty leagues. The Eagles have been raving about him since training camp, and for the season he’s been targeted 6 times, and has a 6-134-1 line to show for it. It’s only a matter of time before he overtakes Torrey Smith and starts to get more playing time. Smith signed a 3-year contract with Philly last offseason, but the last 2 years are both club options. Also worth noting: Alshon Jeffrey signed just a 1-year deal with Philadelphia. Hollins should be a prominent part of the passing game next year, one way or another.
WR Tanner Gentry, CHI (Wk. 8: @NO): The Bears passing volume has been a bit of a joke the past couple weeks, but Gentry has been on the field for 109 out of a possible 118 offensive snaps in the past 2 weeks. He only has one catch to show for all of that playing time, but that’s due to there being just 12 passing completions in those games. I’d expect quite a bit more volume against the high-powered Saints. New Orleans allows the 9th-most WR points per game. Gentry has displayed big play ability (had a 45-yard TD catch in preseason), and the Saints have allowed the 4th-most pass plays of 20 or more yards. Gentry could surprise this week as a DFS punt option. The Bears did just acquire Dontrelle Inman on Wednesday, so the snap share could be a bit in jeopardy for Tanner, but I don’t expect Dontrelle to be fully up to speed by Sunday.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your tough lineup decisions. If you see two players at the same position with the same designation, the one listed first is the one I like better this week. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week and always do a final check before kickoff to make sure your guys are active. If you want to yell at me about anything above or have any questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 was another wild one in the NFL. One of the most exciting things about the league is how unpredictable it can be. 7 underdogs came away victorious, including two that were double-digit underdogs in the Giants and Dolphins. Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending broken collarbone and opened up the NFC North race in the process. The Bears managed to top the Ravens by running the ball an astounding 54 times, and the Jets took a 14-0 lead on the defending champs before falling by 10. It was another week of top rookie performances, as Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette turned in top-10 running back weeks. Deshaun Watson maintained his spot as fantasy’s top scoring QB with a 3-touchdown day, and Evan Engram made the most of the lack of other receiving options for the Giants and finished as the TE3 for the week. There were let downs too, like Aaron Jones and Elijah McGuire, but all in all it was a decent week for the rookies. We also got to see another rookie QB take over as Brian Hoyer was benched in favor CJ Beathard in the bay. There’s plenty more on tap for week 7, so let’s dive in and discuss what to expect…
Rookies to Start:
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 7: @Oak.): Last week didn’t go quite according to plan for Hunt or the Chiefs, but the matchup is strong again this week. Hunt is still an obvious start in season-long leagues. He topped 100 scrimmage yards again last week and finished as the RB15 even in a down week. He should be a solid DFS option this week as well. The Raiders have allowed 85.9 PPR points to opposing backs in the past 3 weeks. That’s 28.7 per game, which would be the 4th-most in the league. Hunt is safe as usual.
RB Leonard Fournette, Jax. (Wk. 7: @Ind.): As long as the twisted ankle Leonard suffered last week doesn’t keep him sidelined, you have to play him. He came up big for you again last week, and the Colts allow the 4th-most RB fantasy points per game in the league. The volume for Leonard is unlikely to change despite him tweaking the ankle. He should be worth the price tag in DFS lineups this week as well.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 7: @GB): If their week 1 matchup with the Seahawks were removed from the equation, the Packers would go from allowing the 14th-most RB points per game all the way up to 4th-most. Kamara is still taking a back seat to Mark Ingram in the wake of the Adrian Peterson trade. He was out-snapped by Ingram 47-30 last week, but in the past 2 games Kamara has seen at least 14 touches and 85 yards in each, and I’d expect that usage to continue again this week. He’s got a high volume role in a plus matchup. He should return RB2 value in PPR leagues with no problem.
TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Sea.): The matchup with the Seahawks isn’t as daunting as you might expect this week. Seattle is in the middle of the pack when it comes to limiting tight end points. They have allowed the 15th-most TE points per game, and have given up 11+ PPR points to the position in 4 of their 5 games. Engram became the focal point of the Giants’ passing attack last weekend with their decimated WR group, so his target share should be strong again this week even if Sterling Shepard is able to play. The Seahawks are good enough to shut the Giants down as a whole, so I would probably fade Engram in DFS lineups, but he should be a low-end top-10 TE in PPR leagues this week.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 7: @Chi.): McCaffrey is a guy you should be starting every week in PPR leagues, but he’s much less of a sure thing in standard formats. He’s been held under 50 scrimmage yards in 3 out of the 6 games he’s played this season, but he’s kept up his PPR floor with at least 4 catches each week. It would be nice to see CMC’s rushing usage go up, but there’s no way to bank on it this week. The Bears are a middling run defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to RBs, but they’ve given up a rushing score in 5 of 6 games and 90+ rushing yards to opposing backs in 4 of 6. If McCaffrey gets an increased rushing load, he might finally start to hit that ceiling we’ve been waiting on. In the meantime, the floor is working out just fine. He’s the overall RB10 in PPR leagues despite just 2 top-10 weekly finishes.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 7: @Pit.): I’m not quite sure what to make of Pittsburgh’s run defense so far this year. On the surface, they’re pretty bad. They’re in the bottom-10 in the league in terms of yards per carry, yards per game, and rushing TDs allowed, and they’ve allowed the 6th-most RB fantasy points per game, but they also rank a respectable 12th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and just held all-world rookie Kareem Hunt to 21 yards on 9 carries. Hunt did save his day with receiving yardage, but it was the first time all year he was held under 80 rushing yards. The Bengals had the bye week to gameplan for this one, and the Steelers would qualify as a plus matchup for running backs, but I see Mixon as no more than an RB2 this week. He’s cracked the top-20 PPR backs just once in 5 games on the season.
RB Aaron Jones, GB (Wk. 7: vs. NO): Splitting reps with Ty Montgomery likely saps the value for both backs going forward. Green Bay may try to run a bit more this week with Aaron Rodgers sidelined with a broken collarbone and Brett Hundley under center, but the Saints have been improved against running backs in their last 2 games. There is still upside to be had here, as the Saints’ defense still ranks just 24th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 3rd-most running back receiving yards despite their recent improved play. Jones may still wind up being a fine flex play in a pinch this week, but I’d lean on more reliable options if I have them.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): Cohen’s usage had taken a nosedive recently, but it should rebound with Benny Cunningham back on the shelf with another hamstring injury. Assuming Benny doesn’t play, Cohen should see significant snaps as he did in week 6. Cohen handled 15 touches in week 6 after seeing just 17 of them in weeks 4 & 5 combined. He also threw a TD pass, but that was a fluke trick play. Don’t expect it again. There is some warranted concern that only one of Cohen’s 15 touches was a reception, but I’d expect the game script to be a bit more negative this week, and only 2 teams have allowed more running back receptions than the Panthers. Cohen is back in play as a PPR flex option this week despite the Panthers allowing the 11th-fewest RB points per game.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Any WR that doesn’t draw Patrick Peterson has a chance to burn the Arizona defense, but slot wide receivers have been especially effective. Golden Tate lit them up for 10-107 in week 1, and in the past 3 weeks they’ve allowed 5-47 to Trent Taylor, 4-93-1 to Nelson Agholor, and 6-51 to Adam Humphries. Kupp is as good a bet as any Ram to lead the team in catches this week, and the best bet to catch a TD pass. Despite Patrick Peterson being one of the premiere corners in the game, allowing just 7-82-1 total in 6 games on throws into his coverage, the Cardinals still allow the 5th-most WR fantasy points per game. Pat Pete should be on Watkins in this one, making Kupp a sneaky DFS play and decent flex/WR3 option.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Dal.): Kittle has seen his target share take off in a big way in the past 2 weeks, and the installation of his college QB CJ Beathard as the 49ers new starter should only help. The Cowboys have allowed 50+ receiving yards to the opposing tights end in 4 of 5 games this year, and gave up a TD in the other. While they usually split that yardage allowed between multiple opposing TEs, the 49ers don’t really have much else at the position. The 49ers have targeted the tight end position 38 times on the year, and 31 of those targets went to Kittle, including 17 of 20 in the last 2 weeks. As long as that target volume continues this week, Kittle should be a solid streaming option in PPR leagues.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): The Panthers’ pass defense has shown some holes this season. They rank 15th in pass defense DVOA, they allow the 7th-highest QB rating to opposing QBs, and they’ve allowed multiple passing scores in 4 straight contests. With that said, they also rank 2nd in the league in quarterback sacks and allow the 7th-fewest passing yards per game. The Bears showed us what their gameplan is with Trubisky last week. Run, run, and run some more. They piled up a ridiculous 54 rushing attempts against Baltimore, compared with 16 pass attempts for Mitchell. If the Panthers don’t run out to a big lead, the Bears will lean on the run again. If Carolina does get out in front, Mitch lacks the weapons to put up a big game in garbage time. He’s a lackluster QB2 option against the Panthers on Sunday.
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Ten.): The Browns have made the decision to go back to Kizer this week at QB, and he may even have a decent game, but I’d be hard pressed to use him in any lineups. The Titans have allowed the 6th-most QB fantasy points per game, but they allowed 33+ points each to Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson, which has skewed their overall average. In their other 4 games, facing Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler and Jacoby Brissett, they’ve allowed just 12.25 points per game which would rank 7th fewest in the league. I’d argue Kizer seems to fit better into that second group of signal-callers than the first in terms of where you’d rank them as a fantasy QB. I hope he plays better in his second stint as the starter, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
RB Matt Brieda, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Dal.): It pains me to say you should bench Brieda against a Cowboys’ team that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA, but I’d expect the 49ers to be showcasing Carlos Hyde for any potential trade suitors in this plus matchup. Brieda’s playing time is already on the decline of late. The 17 snaps he played in week 6 were the fewest he’s seen in the past 3 contests. I’d expect similar usage for Brieda this week, and that kind of snap count doesn’t bode well for his fantasy prospects. You should still hold on to him on your bench if you can.
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Sea.): Gallman’s run as New York’s lead back was shorter than expected. Orleans Darkwa appears to have stolen the job from him after racking up 117 rushing yards against a Denver defense that had allowed just 165 rushing yards to RBs in the previous 4 games combined. Gallman saw just 11 touches in that game, and that kind of usage isn’t going to get it done against Seattle. The Seahawks allow the 4th-fewest RB fantasy points per game.
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 7: @Mia.): It was a disappointing week for McGuire as Matt Forte returned from injury and took away his opportunity to play as the Jets’ lead back. I expected the Jets to ease Forte back in, but they didn’t hold him back much. Forte didn’t exactly dazzle as a runner with just 22 yards on 9 carries (McGuire had 22 on 10), but Forte received 8 passing game targets compared to zero for Eli. What was even more disappointing was seeing Travaris Cadet get 3 targets. The Dolphins aren’t nearly as giving to RBs as the Patriots, and the lack of receiving usage makes McGuire basically unstartable this week regardless of whether or not Bilal Powell returns.
RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 7: @Phi.): It seems very likely that Rob Kelley will be able to play this week, which would send Perine back to a bench role. He scored a TD last weekend, but he still hasn’t really capitalized on the opportunities he’s been given. Even with the TD, Perine was outscored by receiving back Chris Thompson in non-PPR scoring. The Eagles allow the 6th-fewest RB points per game and have allowed just 40 rushing yards to opposing backs per week. There’s no way Perine posts a usable week with Kelley back.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 7: vs. Cin.): JuJu continues to see more usage than Martavis Bryant in this offense, but the matchup isn’t a great one this week. The Bengals allow the 3rd-fewest WR PPR points per game, allowing only Green Bay’s receiver group to eclipse 20 total points against them. As I mentioned, JJSS is still playing more snaps than Martavis Bryant, but he hasn’t had quite enough volume to be a trustworthy flex play. His matchup is tougher than it was last week, and yet his DraftKings price is $200 higher. I’d avoid him in all formats this week.
WR Taywan Taylor, TEN (Wk. 7: @Cle.): Jon Gruden referred to Taylor as a ‘gadget receiver’ during Monday Night Football this week, but I think Taywan had the last laugh after catching a 53-yard TD in the 4th quarter of the game. He’s shown some serious ability when given the chance with two 40+-yard catches on the season, but even with Corey Davis sidelined the volume just hasn’t been there. He has just 7 receptions in total. Here’s a weird stat for the Browns that will work against Taylor this week: The Browns have allowed 2 wide receivers to reach 40 yards in the same game just once this season (TY Hilton & Donte Moncrief). With Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker around, it’s hard to believe the guy to get to 40 yards will be Taylor if the Titans only get one.
TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Everett scored his first career TD last week, but has hauled in just 3 catches for 20 yards on 9 targets in the past 4 games. The Cardinals were shredded by Brate & Ertz in the past 2 weeks, but there’s no reason to expect that from Everett. Tyler Higbee is the play if you want to attack the Cardinals’ TE defense.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Ten.): With Kevin Hogan under center last Sunday, Njoku saw a season-high 5 targets, but he caught just 2 of them for zero yards. Njoku has scored 3 TDs in 6 games, but he’s no more than a low-volume TD dart throw this week. The Titans allow the 12th-fewest TE points per game.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 7: @Buf.): Howard has been almost a non-factor in the passing game. He’s averaged just 2.4 targets per game, and the Bills have allowed the 8th-fewest TE points per game. It’s an easy call to avoid OJ this week.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Dal.): It’ll be Beathard’s first NFL start, but he acquitted himself well in mop-up duty against Washington last week and he gets a nice matchup in week 7. The Cowboys have allowed multiple passing TDs and at least 18 fantasy points to each QB they’ve faced in the past 4 games. The bye might have helped them get their heads on straight, but it’s hard to know. This will be Dallas’s first game since Jerry Jones issued his anthem ultimatum, and Ezekiel Elliott was only legally cleared to play on Tuesday. There could be some distractions affecting the team. Even if the Cowboys play well, Beathard should be playing from behind and have increased passing volume. He’s an interesting 2QB streamer option and upside DFS tournament play.
RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Jax.): Marlon Mack has a chance to explode this week. Robert Turbin has played at least 28% of the offensive snaps in every single game Mack has been active for. Turbin was lost for the season with an elbow injury at the end of the MNF game this week. The Jaguars have allowed an NFL-worst 5.2 yards per carry and 2nd-worst 145.7 rushing yards per game. Both Gore and Mack have brighter outlooks with Turbin out of the picture, but Mack is the more explosive back. Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus noted this week that the Jaguars have allowed 21 carries of 10 or more yards this season, 4th-most in the league, and Marlon Mack has 5 such carries in just 27 attempts. As long as Mack picks up some of the slack left behind by Turbin, he should be a great cheap DFS option and a fun sleeper for deeper leagues.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. TB): Jordan Matthews’s status is still up in the air for this week, and Charles Clay is definitely out. If there was ever a spot for Zay Jones to get his rookie year on track, this is it. The Buccaneers allow the most WR PPR points per game by an incredible 8.7-point margin over the 2nd-worst unit (Eagles). That point gap is the same as the one between the Eagles and the Dolphins. The Dolphins allow the 17th-most WR points. Tampa has been absolutely shredded by wide receivers. I know Zay has just 5 catches on 23 targets for the year, but if Matthews sits out again he could see 8+ targets in this game against that Buccaneer defense. You can’t trust him in season-long leagues, but he could be a great value in DFS tournaments at just $3,600 on DraftKings.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): The Broncos are never an ideal matchup to play a wide receiver, so this is about reminding you that Williams is still a solid stash for deeper leagues. He had just 1 catch in his debut, and will likely be eased in slowly, but the Chargers could use some wide receiver help. Only 16 of Philip Rivers’s 46 completions in the past 2 weeks went to wide receivers, and only 7 to receivers who weren’t Keenan Allen. Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin aren’t getting it done. Among waiver wire WRs, I like Corey Davis’s upside more in terms of the rest of the season, but Davis has already been ruled out for this week. You can wait a week in most places to pick him up. You might not have that luxury with Williams.
WR John Ross, CIN (Wk. 7: @Pit.): Ross is just a stash at this point. You can’t put him in the lineup this week, but with Tyler Boyd out, Ross might actually make an impact against Pittsburgh. You could beat the rush and pick him up this week in really deep leagues. Monitor Ross’s usage this week. Cincinnati gets the Colts, Browns and Titans in three of their next 5 games. There could be a couple big games for him if he manages to carve out a role.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with some of your tough lineup decisions. I always try to include every fantasy relevant rookie, and if you see two guys at the same position under the same header, I try to rank them in the order I would play them this week. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week, and always check for any surprise inactives on game day. If you have any questions, or want to yell at me about anything above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.