Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

As we approach fantasy drafts for all of our redraft leagues, drinkfive.com will again provide its annual preseason fantasy football draft rankings. Looking forward into the 2022 NFL season, who will impress and who will falter? Up and comers like Michael Pittman Jr. could provide more fantasy value season long than those all-stars that have been displaced, like Tyreek Hill. Opportunity for Javonte Williams to rise up in the ranks to be a top 10 RB could be stifled by the continued presence of Melvin Gordon. It's important to pay attention to what variables could affect prospective draft choices, and our regularly updated rankings reflect all current news and insights. Choose wisely!

Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with any specific questions or comments that you might have. We are now broadcasting our weekly podcast, The Fantasy Finish Line, LIVE on YouTube every Wednesday at 9pm CT during the regular season. Tune in!

Looking forward to the 2022 fantasy football season, Dave & Jason break down their thoughts on the top 10 rookies and take a look at the current top 10 ADP for redraft leagues. Who is being overdrafted? Which players could be taken earlier than their current ADP based on projected value? Tune in tonight for a rousing discussion on these topics and more - we'll surely be revisiting these players throughout the preseason.

This video/podcast will go live at 9pm CT on Wednesday, July 27, 2022 - it will also be available on all major podcast channels and remain available on YouTube for later review and comments. Join us live and add your comments/questions to the show!

This video features the songs and artists listed below, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license: - Various original music by David Biggs

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Looking at the top 10 ADP overall in 1/2 point PPR redraft leagues (based on FantasyPros ADP, formulated from multiple sources), what conclusions can we draw and what predictions can we make about this group? Are these players worth their current draft position? Are they overrated/underrated? What has changed on their respective teams during the offseason leading up to the 2022 fantasy football season? Are they a candidate for statistical regression this year? We'll attempt to answer these questions while discussing each player below. 

1 - Jonathan Taylor (RB-IND) - 19.5 carries per game, over 1800 rushing yards, 18 total TDs. Very hard not to be confident in Taylor being the #1 out the door in 2022 redrafts. He is not an exciting receiving back, but he dominates the time in the backfield and at the goal line, and should enjoy a slight step up in QB quality with Matt Ryan taking over. Nyheim Hines does sometimes show up in 2-minute drills, etc, but we saw Taylor playing in mid-game 3rd down situations throughout the season. While there could be a statistical regression in TDs for Taylor, nothing about his usage or the Colts 2022 draft picks, or other personnel changes would indicate a reason for concern from the outset.

2 - Austin Ekeler (RB-LAC) - Ekeler finished as the RB2 last year. He averaged 19.3 PPG. He finished almost 50 points behind Taylor, but only was 1.5 PPG behind, as he played in 1 fewer game. He was 2.6PPG ahead of the RB3, Joe Mixon. His ADP in 2021 was 15, so this is a large jump, relatively speaking. He is now an early first round pick, and I believe he’s accurately valued. He does not have the usual wear and tear of a bell cow RB. Last season he managed 276 touches, the most in his career - though only the second time he exceeded 200. He had 240 in 2019. Ekeler averaged 17.25 touches per game last year, pointing to the possibility that he can be fresh for another 17 game season this year. The Chargers drafted Isaiah Spiller in the 4th round, so this could be the year for Ekeler to top 300 touches, as there’s not a lot behind him that’s in line for touches. If he stays healthy, I don’t see much of a regression coming for Ekeler this year. His points per touch over the last 3 years have been 1.10, 0.81 (injury year), 1.19. If anything, Ekeler is even more aware of his fantasy impact these days, as he seems to be one of the most vocal players in the league in regards to fantasy football. His high production per touch makes him feel like one of the safest early first round picks in a while, ignoring injury potential.

3 - Christian McCaffrey (RB-CAR) - When CMC is healthy, he is one of if not the best dominating RBs to ever play in the NFL. Regardless of the starting QB, regardless of countless other variables or maybe even in spite of them, McCaffrey will continue to make plays and provide immeasurable value because of the volume that he brings in the running and receiving game for the Panthers. McCaffrey had 3 straight seasons without missing any games and was injured the last two seasons but for unrelated reasons that have no long-term repercussions on his health. Yes, the Panthers are going to be bad - but we’ve already seen that with McCaffrey over the years.. His success is completely independent of the success of the football team. The smart move is not to worry about injuries that are not chronic and drafting CMC at #2 or #3 overall makes total sense based on his ceiling and age. He’s 26 years old and when he plays football, no one else on the field is as good as he is at what he does.

4 - Derrick Henry (RB-TEN) - Henry was on a blistering pace last season, averaging 23 points per game before going down with a foot injury and only ultimately playing 8 games in the regular season. He was also on a ridiculous pace for carries, averaging over 27 carries per game in that stretch. Despite playing in only 8 games, he still was 10th in the league for rushing attempts for the season. Henry now has 955 touches in the regular season in the last three seasons, and has had at least 215 carries in each of the last 4. His production in 2019 and 2020 were legendary, and it seemed that only an injury kept him from repeating that in 2021. This sort of wear and tear would have me predicting a huge regression for any other player in the NFL, but Henry is different. He still averaged 4.6 yards per touch last season, after nearly 400 touches the year before. He is going to likely get a huge volume of touches this season again (there’s nobody on the team to challenge him for carries), and by that metric alone, he is worth a first round draft pick. It’s hard to consider Henry overrated based on his history, but he may be a little more overrated than underrated at this point. Everybody knows what he is and what they’re getting when they draft him. He will carry the ball a ton every game. He will find the end zone early and often. He will also regress from a tier 1 RB down to likely a tier 2 or 3 back, but that doesn’t necessarily scare me away from drafting him in the middle of the first round.

5 - Cooper Kupp (WR-LAR) - Kupp may have had the best season ever for a WR last season, logging 138 receptions, 1,829 receiving yards, and 15 TDs. He rejoins the Super Bowl winning Los Angeles Rams in a position of strength, where they have largely kept the same team and added on additional talent in some cases, such as the signing of Allen Robinson in March just before Robert Woods departed for Tennessee. I cannot possibly make the case for Kupp to repeat his production, especially since the only other receiver to have had as many accolades over the course of one season was Jerry Rice himself… but he needs to be the first WR off the board, especially in PPR leagues. Since we’re talking about a ½ PPR league, and Kupp’s production should be consistent from 2021 to 2022, if slightly less impressive fantasy-wise, I would be comfortable selecting him above this ADP of #5 - as high as #3 or #4 off the board. It is just so much more likely for RBs to be injured or fall off a production cliff earlier than WRs. The 29-year-old Kupp has two years of top-tier production left in the tank, easy.

6 - Dalvin Cook (RB-MIN) - Dalvin Cook finished last season as the RB15, and in my opinion, he’s only this high on the ADP list due to his potential and not his production. There’s also a certain vacuum of new top tier talent to take the place of the traditional players you see here, like Cook. Cook does not have a season in his 5 years where he played every game. Last season, his TDs, touches, and total yardage all regressed from the previous two seasons when he was considered to be tier 1-2 for RBs. The Vikings have some of the best talent in the league at the offensive skill positions, but haven’t been able to put it all together in recent years. Perhaps changing their coaching staff will be the spark that’s needed. Kevin O’Connell, their new coach, was the OC for the Rams the last 2 years, so perhaps we will see a huge step forward for the Vikings. I believe this will come more in the passing game, rather than the ground game. I believe that Cook is overvalued here at 6 and is more of a late first round to early second round pick. I would rather have a known workhorse like Harris or Mixon in this spot, rather than Cook. Cook is used almost as much as Derrick Henry - 942 touches in the last 3 years, but is objectively not as durable. Alexander Mattison also sits right behind him on the depth chart, a player who is maybe the most popular waiver wire pickup every time Cook goes down.

7 - Justin Jefferson (WR-MIN) - Yep. Stud. Moving on.

8 - Najee Harris (RB-PIT) - In his rookie year, Najee Harris lived up to the hype. He finished as the RB4 for the season, leading the league in touches with 381. His 74 receptions and 307 carries show that he is well versed in all parts of the Steelers offense, and was from the first game. He did all of this with a geriatric quarterback that arguably held the team back. Unfortunately, the Steelers did not do a ton to improve their QB situation, but in their defense, the free agent and draft markets were not robust this year. Mitch Trubisky will have to do. I do not expect Harris to regress in terms of usage or production as a result of Trubisky under center. I actually expect Harris to progress somewhat when it comes to yards per touch (4.4 in 2021) and TDs (10 in 2021). Most star players who have a big jump show it from year one to year two. Harris showed tons of potential in year one, and was able to grind his way near the top of the RB chart due to his volume of touches. I think he is underrated at his current ADP spot of 8, he should be going in the early to middle first round. He has the talent to make the jump to a tier 1 RB, he just needs the team to gel around him. He’s young enough that last year’s workload should not affect him negatively. There is nobody else in the Steelers backfield to challenge him for carries. He will only come off the field to catch his breath once in a while.

9 - Ja’Marr Chase (WR-CIN) - Talking about Treylon Burks earlier brings back memories of Chase last year in the preseason. “He’s dropping all of the passes thrown to him” said the reports from training camp, etc… Oh please. Clearly not the case last year as he finished fourth in yards (1,455), third in touchdowns (13), and second in yards per reception (18.0). Remember that he is not the lone talented guy in that WR squad for the Bengals, with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins combining for over 1900 receiving yards. Chase will not play up to his ADP this year as he becomes more of a team player and allows for his deep looks to be distractions while defenses scheme against him from looking at all of the tape. Chase is more likely to be a good 2nd round pick from the top to middle of the round than a low-end 1st round selection.

10 - Joe Mixon (RB-CIN) - Last year was the best season of Mixon’s career. He finished the season as the RB3, and somehow looks like both a very even scoring player with 9 weeks in a row scoring at least 1 TD, and a feast or famine guy, scoring below 10 points 5 times in 16 regular season games. Mixon reminds me of the same kind of player as Henry and Cook, both of whom have played 5 or 6 years like Mixon. Mixon has way less wear on him, however, with only 787 touches over the last 3 seasons, thanks to an injury last year. That set him up for career highs in touches, yards, and touchdowns in 2021. Mixon is unlikely to set new career highs for a second year in a row, but I wouldn’t consider that a regression per se. If anything, putting Mixon at the very back of the first round is underrating him. He is returning to a Bengals team that made the Super Bowl and is returning all of its stars to run it all back for another chance at the title. I don’t see his role in this offense changing at all. There is no change in the depth chart behind him, so there’s nobody knocking on the door to take touches away. A back that is likely to see 300+ touches on a top 5 offense should be drafted in the middle of the first round at the latest.

Hello, and welcome back to drinkfive.com's fantasy football coverage. We have had a terrific amount of R&R in the offseason and are ready to get back in the saddle as we approach training camp, preseason, and the eventual start of the 2022 fantasy season. A fresh crop of rookies sheds new light on the depth charts of many NFL teams and how we would advise drafting skill position players from those organizations. Take a look at our dynasty rankings for help in analyzing and shaping your fantasy squad for this season and the future. Questions? I'm available at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or on Twitter @drinkfive. Good luck as we all get back into fantasy shape. That's beer & BBQ for me, FYI.