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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was one of those weeks that reminds you just how tough this game can be to predict. It wasn’t exactly a banner week here at the Rookie Report, as a lengthy list of players I liked to have solid games – Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs, Roschon Johnson, Zach Charbonnet, JSN, Tank Dell, Jordan Addison, and Luke Musgrave – were huge disappointments. I also didn’t feel great about CJ Stroud or Michael Wilson in week 4, and both turned in top-10 finishes.

Some weeks are going to be like that. Making the right decisions for your lineup isn’t about being perfect every week, and you’ll drive yourself nuts if that’s your goal. All you can do is use the information available to try and give yourself the best chance to win. You can’t kick yourself for not making an irrational decision like starting Michael Wilson over Calvin Ridley, or Jaylen Warren over Jahmyr Gibbs, even though those moves would’ve resulted in more points in your lineup.

I’ll continue to let talent, usage and matchups be my guide in breaking down the outlook for the rookie class each week and following that is going to put you in better position to win more weeks than not.

This week we hit the first of the NFL’s bye weeks, so you may be searching for fill-ins for every week starters like Justin Herbert or Kenneth Walker III, and you might be looking at a rookie as an option to step in and fill the void, so let’s talk about what to expect from the rookies this weekend.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 5:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Richardson returned last Sunday after missing week 3 with a concussion, and he quickly reminded us that he has the potential to break fantasy this season, finishing as the QB2 for the week behind only Josh Allen. Richardson has played just two full games so far, and he logged 10 rushing attempts, multiple total TDs, and over 20 fantasy points in both. He also tallied 17.7 points in just over a quarter against Houston before suffering his concussion. The Titans are just a middling QB defense, allowing the 14^th-fewest QB points per game, but they rank 25^th in Aaron Schatz’s pass defense DVOA. You should be treating Richardson as a top-5 fantasy QB this week.

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 5: vs. Hou.): Robinson had a field day in London, getting back into the RB1 column with his 3^rd top-12 PPR finish in 4 games. He’s now seen at least 5 targets in all 4 games and ranks 3^rd among all running backs in routes run. This week he faces off with a Texans defense that allows the 7^th-most running back points per game and ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans also rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. All systems are go for Bijan this week. He’s a slam dunk top-10 RB option.

RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): Achane followed up his 50-point explosion in week 3 with another dynamite performance in week 4, tallying 27 PPR points and finishing the week as the RB5. He was one of the few bright spots for Miami’s offense in a 28-point drubbing at the hands of the Bills. Achane totaled 120 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs on just 11 touches, but what’s more exciting is that he’s seemingly moved ahead of Raheem Mostert on the depth chart. Achane was on the field for 66% of the offensive snaps and in a route on 68% of the team’s passing dropbacks. He also handled the only carries inside the 5-yard line. He’s now the 1A back in this offense, and this week they face a Giants defense that has allowed the 10^th-most RB points per game and ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA. There’s no reason to sit him in what should be an easier matchup this week. Achane is a top-10 RB play this week.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): The Rams might get Cooper Kupp back this week, but you can’t sit Nacua with the way he’s been playing. Puka has been playing primarily on the perimeter, and Kupp works mostly from the slot, so there’s room in this offense for both to thrive. Nacua has been rewriting the rookie record books through 4 weeks, averaging nearly 10 catches for 125 yards on 13 targets per game, and the Eagles have allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game. Kupp’s return could put a dent into Puka’s target share, but that likely means he’s more of a WR2 than a surefire WR1 for fantasy lineups. There’s still a chance that Kupp doesn’t return this week as well. Don’t be afraid to start Nacua this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 5: @Atl.): With Justin Herbert and Geno Smith on byes this week, I think it pushes Stroud into the top-12 QBs for the week. He’s been flat out dealing over the last 3 weeks, averaging 323 yards, 2 TDs, and zero INTs per game, and he faces an Atlanta defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Atlanta has also struggled to defend the run, so QBs haven’t piled up a ton of volume against them. No passer has thrown for 250+ yards against Atlanta yet this season, but the Texans are a pass-first team and Stroud should have a great chance to be the first. He’s a back end QB1 option this week.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Gibbs has continued to look impressive with his touches, but also continued to disappoint fantasy managers over the last month. David Montgomery returned from injury in week 4 and went right back to a 70% snap share and dominating the goal line carries. Montgomery scored 3 touchdowns on Thursday night and is up to 5 scores in 3 games. Gibbs is yet to score his first NFL touchdown. For the time being, we need to readjust our expectations for Gibbs and treat him like a weekly RB3 option rather than the potential RB1 we drafted him to be. With that said, this week Gibbs gets a juicy matchup and should probably be in lineups if you can make room for him. Carolina has allowed the 4^th most RB points per game so far, and they rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Detroit has one of the highest implied point totals of the week at 27 points, so this is an offense to target. Don’t count on a full complement of snaps, but Gibbs should see a dozen or so touches and find his way to an RB2 finish.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): This is contingent on Javonte Williams not playing this week, but if the hip injury Williams sustained against the Bears keeps him out on Sunday, I like McLaughlin as a back end RB2 option in a reasonable matchup with the Jets. Samaje Perine would likely lead the Broncos in snaps if Williams sits (Perine out-snapped McLaughlin 22-16 in week 4), but the Broncos made a point last week to get the ball into McLaughlin’s hands. McLaughlin touched the ball on 10 of his 16 snaps and he caught a receiving TD before Williams had even been hurt, and he’s been significantly more explosive than Perine so far this season. McLaughlin has averaged nearly 3 yards per touch and 4.5 yards per rush more than Perine over the last 3 weeks. The Jets have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game and are one of just 8 teams allowing 6 or more running back receptions per game. There’s room here for another strong performance from the rookie back. Just know that there is some built-in risk since McLaughlin’s production is more a result of efficiency than volume.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 5: vs. KC): Addison put up a frustrating goose egg last week on just 1 target in a game where the Vikings threw the ball just 19 times. The upside case for Addison is that this offense passes at such a high volume that even as Minnesota’s WR3 he’s going to put up useful fantasy stat lines. In weeks where they don’t throw a lot, floor weeks like this are a possibility. Luckily for Addison, the Vikings should throw plenty as 5-point underdogs against the defending champs on Sunday. Look for a bounce back game from the rookie WR against a KC pass defense that struggled to slow down Zach Wilson last Sunday night. I’d treat Addison as a WR3 this week.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Through his first 4 games, Flowers has put up consistent fantasy performances despite some yo-yoing of his target totals. In weeks 1 and 3, Flowers earned 10 targets in each game, but in weeks 2 and 4 he earned just 9 targets total. The Ravens have at least done us the favor of getting him those targets further downfield in the games where the targets haven’t been as plentiful. He’s had an aDOT below 4 yards in both games with 10 targets, and an aDOT above 12 yards in both games with fewer targets, and it’s resulted in Flowers reaching 50 scrimmage yards and 8+ PPR points in all 4 games. There’s a little more risk this week in firing up Flowers with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham both likely to return from injury for week 5, but Zay is still the team’s WR1 and faces a promising matchup. The Steelers have allowed the 3^rd-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, and Flowers is still a great upside WR3/4 option this week.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): The return of Christian Watson limited Reed to his lowest target share of the season, but he’s still earned 5+ targets in all 4 games and had an aDOT of 14+ yards in 3 of them. Watson’s snap share may increase further in his second game back, but I still like Reed’s chances of posting a strong fantasy day this week. The Raiders rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 5^th-fewest PPR points to receivers lined up on the perimeter. Reed functions as the Packers’ primary slot receiver, aligning in the slot for 73% of his snaps. The Raiders allow the 12^th-most PPR points to receivers lined up in the slot. It’s still going to be a bit of a weekly guessing game to figure out which Packer WRs to trust in fantasy, but the matchup suggests that Reed should be in line for a strong outing on Monday. I like him as a WR3/4 option this week and would rank him just ahead of Tank Dell for week 5.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): LaPorta finished outside the top-12 PPR tight ends for the first time in week 4, but he still earned 5 targets for the 4^th consecutive game and topped 50 yards for the third game in a row. His role has been very stable, and while the Panthers have allowed just the 8^th-fewest TE points per game, they’ve struggled to contain the position when it’s actually targeted. Carolina ranks in the bottom-5 in the league with 9 yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends. LaPorta is a fringe TE1 this week, even in a matchup that looks tough at first glance.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.): I was excited about Bryce’s chances at a big game last week against a porous Viking defense, and while he did play his most efficient game of the season, he finished with just 7 fantasy points and certainly didn’t help you win your matchups if you started him. The increase in efficiency was a good sign. Bryce set season-highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating, but he took too many drive killing sacks and gave away a TD on a fumble that proved to be the difference in the game. Young isn’t throwing for enough yards or TDs to be trustworthy as a QB2 in lineups right now, and his opponent this week is much tougher than the Vikings. Detroit ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA and should be able to keep Bryce mostly in check. I’d view him as a dicey QB2 option this week.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 5: @Was.): Roschon’s playing time went in the wrong direction in week 4 as the Bears played mostly from in front against Denver. He was out-snapped by Khalil Herbert 55 to 15. It was really the first chance we’ve had to see the Bears play with a lead, so for now I would assume this is what the RB usage will look like when that happens. Chicago is a 5.5-point underdog this week, so the game script should be Roschon-friendly, but even when that’s been the case in previous weeks, Johnson his split the backfield work with Herbert and averaged just 9 touches per game. He’ll need efficiency to get by, and the Commanders rank 9^th in run defense DVOA. Roschon is in play as a fringe RB3 option, but I’d prefer to look elsewhere this week.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 5: @Atl.): Dell followed up back-to-back 20-point PPR games with a 1-catch, 29-scrimmage yard dud in week 4 against the Steelers. Through 4 games, it’s starting to feel like each game is either going to be a Tank Dell game or a Nico Collins game. Robert Woods hasn’t put up big fantasy production, but his role has been stable. He’s been right around a 20% target share every week, and between a 20% and 30% air yardage share in each game. Dell and Collins have seen much bigger weekly fluctuations. Collins had air yardage shares of 64% in week 1 and 42% in week 4, both games where he led the WR room in fantasy points. Dell was at 54% in week 3, when he finished as the PPR WR7. The duo was much closer together in air yards in week 2, when both players produced strong fantasy days. Overall, it’s been Collins who has more consistently seen downfield targets and has out-produced the rookie in 3-of-4 games. For the time being, I’d consider Collins a weekly WR2 option, and Dell a weekly WR3/4 option. The Falcons are not a good pass defense, ranking just 27^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also don’t face a ton of passing volume as they’re a bad run defense too. Atlanta has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. That likely lower pass volume for the Texans has me leaning towards leaving Dell on the bench this week, but he’s right on the borderline.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Wilson posted a monster game in tough matchup with the 49ers last weekend, piling up a line of 7-76-2 on 7 targets, but it wasn’t due to some sort of fundamental change in his usage. Wilson logged a route participation rate of 74% in week 4 (his second-lowest mark of the season), and earned a 17% target share, which was his highest of the season but not by a wide margin. It’s a great sign that Wilson is seeing the ball come his way more often, but last week’s result was likely a bit of an outlier. Wilson has been very efficient this season, catching 89% of his targets and putting up nearly 15 yards per target. The Bengals this season have allowed just a 56.6% completion rate on throws to receivers and 7.8 yards per target. Expecting a top-20 finish out of Wilson this week is probably wishful thinking. You could certainly plug him in as a WR3/WR4 option, especially in deeper leagues, but he should be viewed as more of a floor play this week.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): The matchup is a good one this week for Downs against a Tennessee defense that ranks 25^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 7^th-most PPR points to opposing receivers lined up in the slot, but the overall volume just hasn’t been there for Downs and we don’t know what kind of impact Jonathan Taylor’s return will make on the team’s pass rate going forward. Downs has been held below 40 yards in all 3 games that Anthony Richardson has started, and even if he breaks that streak this week in this good matchup, he’s probably still just barely scratching and clawing his way to double-digit PPR points. Downs is a WR4 option this week in PPR leagues only.

WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): Mims came up with his 5^th catch of 30+ yards in the last 3 weeks against the Bears on Sunday, but the Broncos continue to frustratingly limit his playing time. He ran just 12 routes in that game and faces a tougher matchup this week against the Jets. The Jets’ defense has allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. I don’t love Mims’ chances of pulling in a deep ball or two in this matchup.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.): Mingo will return from his concussion this week, and he’s been he’s been a constant on the field when he’s been healthy, logging route participation rates of 93% and 97% in the first two games of the season. It remains to be seen if he’ll return to that same role since all of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Terrace Marshall Jr. have posted 14+ PPR points in a game since Mingo’s injury. There are volume concerns with the Panthers averaging just 168 passing yards per game in Bryce Young’s starts, and the Lions rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. If Mingo has a breakout game this week, it would be totally unexpected. I’d keep him parked on the bench.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): Musgrave has cleared the concussion protocol and will return to face the Raiders on Monday night, and I expect his role to pick up where it left off. He’ll still function as the full-time tight end and the Raiders have allowed the 11^th-most TE points per game, so he is a viable starting option in this one. My concerns are that no tight end has caught for big volume against the Raiders (no tight end has reached 45 receiving yards against them this season), and we still haven’t seen if Musgrave’s targets will take a hit at all with Christian Watson back in the lineup since the rookie tight end was injured so early on in week 3. I wouldn’t bank on more than 5 or so targets for Musgrave this week, and that means you’re holding out hope for a touchdown. The Raiders have allowed 2 tight end scores in their first 4 games, so that TD is very much in play. If any of the teams on byes this week had a top-12 tight end, I’d probably be more bullish on Musgrave finishing that high this weekend. Instead, I’ll say that I’d consider him a top-16 option at TE for week 5.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Jax.): Kincaid was in a route on nearly 80% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks in week 4, but he logged his 3^rd game this season with fewer than 30 receiving yards. His targets continue to come mostly within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, which sort of misses out on the biggest advantage of playing with Josh Allen – his arm strength and willingness to take deep shots. Allen ranked 3^rd in the league in deep ball attempts last year, but Kincaid has had just 1 catch go for more than 10 yards this season. He gets a favorable matchup this week as the Jaguars allow the 6^th-most TE points per game, but I can’t recommend starting Kincaid given what his usage has looked like. You could plug him in as a desperation bye week fill in, but there just aren’t any top-flight tight ends on byes this week that you’re in need of replacing.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Jimmy Garoppolo is practicing as of Thursday, but has not yet cleared the NFL concussion protocol, leaving open the possibility that O’Connell will get a second start this week. The 4^th-round pick handled himself well at times in his first start and did a good job of getting the ball to Davante Adams in the 2^nd half, but he also turned the ball over 3 times against a Chargers defense that had been the worst QB defense in the league through 3 weeks and finished as the QB23. With 4 teams on a bye, any starting QB is in consideration in Superflex leagues, but O’Connell would be toward the bottom of the list of starters this week if he starts. He gets a tougher matchup against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the 15^th-fewest QB points per game. If AOC starts again, he’s nothing more than a desperation plug-in for 2-QB and superflex leagues.

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Demercado has stepped in as the RB2 in Arizona with Keaontay Ingram battling a neck injury. He played 38% of the offensive snaps against the 49ers last Sunday, but that resulted in just 4 touches for 24 yards. He may get some extra run in weeks when the Cardinals are in catch-up mode as they were last week (Emari played 57% of the two-minute drill snaps in week 4), but this will remain James Conner’s backfield going forward. Demercado shouldn’t be a consideration as anything more than a waiver flyer in deeper dynasty leagues.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 5: @NE): Alvin Kamara returned from suspension in week 4 and dominated the Saints backfield. Kamara saw 11 carries and a whopping 14 targets against Tampa, while Miller and Tony Jones combined for just 1 target and 1 carry (both by Miller). Kendre’s opportunity to carve out a bigger role may have passed him by now that Kamara is back. He needs to stay on your bench (or dropped to the waiver wire).

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Over the last 3 weeks combined, Bigsby has played 27 snaps and handled 5 carries and 1 target. There’s always a chance that Tank gets a goal line plunge, but if he doesn’t, he might give you less than 1 fantasy point. He’s not start-able for now.  

RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 5: @SF): Vaughn has handled 6+ touches in 3 of Dallas’ 4 games this season, but each of those games was a blowout win for the Cowboys. Dallas is a 4-point underdog on the road against the 49ers this week, and the odds of it being a laugher in the ‘Boys favor by halftime is almost zero. Don’t be surprised if Vaughn isn’t involved at all Sunday night.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Douglas tallied a 42-yard catch last Sunday at Dallas, but his playing time continues to be too limited to rely on. He draws targets when he’s on the field, with a 26% target per route run rate, but his route participation rate has been in the 40s in 3 games this season (and at 9% in the other game). That’s just not enough playing time to be useful in fantasy unless the Patriots are throwing the ball 45-50 times per game. They’ve attempted 29 and 30 passes in the last two weeks, and that number is unlikely to climb much this week. The Patriots-Saints tilt is one of just two games this week with a Vegas point total below 40 points.

WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Bell scored a TD in week 3 with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined, but with Jauan Jennings out and Deebo Samuel serving as a decoy in week 4, Bell was limited to just 3 routes run. Bell is the WR5 in this offense behind that trio and Ray-Ray McCloud, which makes him waiver wire fodder in all but deep dynasty leagues.

WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): Wicks logged his lowest route participation rate of the season in week 4 with Christian Watson back in the lineup, but the drop-off in playing time wasn’t as drastic as expected. Wicks was still in a route on 57% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks as Watson played a limited number of snaps. The problem is that Wicks was targeted just once after averaging 5 targets per game in the previous 2 games. It’s only going to get harder for Wicks to earn more targets as Watson gets up to full strength. The Raiders are a terrible defense, and this would be a spot where Wicks would have some extra upside if we knew he was going to get opportunities, but it’s hard to count on that this week. 

TE Josh Whyle, TEN (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Whyle finished last week as a top-12 TE after earning his first 2 targets of the season and hauling in a 24-yard touchdown. Don’t expect that kind of output regularly. He’s run just 11 routes all season.

Rookies on Byes in Week 5: QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE, RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA, RB Sean Tucker, TB, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC, WR Trey Palmer, TB, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Zach Evans, LAR, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Michael Mayer, LV, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Spears hasn’t quite had a breakout game yet, but he’s been much more involved in the Tennessee offense than we could’ve anticipated. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps and logged a 50% or better route participation rate in 3 of 4 games, including in week 4 when the Titans were rolling the Bengals. Derrick Henry has handled over 70% of the team rushing attempts in all 4 games this year, but it’s a great sign for Spears that he’s still playing that kind of snap share in games with positive game script. I wouldn’t plug in Spears this week – the Colts rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs, the plays where Spears can do the most damage - but if he’s floating around on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues, he probably shouldn’t be. He’s a dynamic back who is going to have breakthrough games at some point.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 5: @Min.): Rice has yet to hit 12 PPR points in a game this season, but it feels like it’s coming soon, possibly as soon as this week. Rashee has seen his playing time go up in the last two weeks at the expense of Skyy Moore and MVS. He’s logged right around a 50% route participation rate in each of the last two games, and he’s drawing targets on an incredible 32% of his routes run. He also leads the team with 6 red zone targets. Kansas City has made a more concerted effort to get the ball into Rice’s hands than any other receiver on the team. This week they face a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most WR fantasy points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs also have the 2^nd-highest implied point total in the league this week (29 points), so there should be some red zone opportunities. Rice is more of a WR4/5 option for this week, but I like his chances of posting his best fantasy day of the season in an inviting matchup.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 5: @Mia.): You probably didn’t notice it while the Giants were struggling to muster any offense on Monday night against the Seahawks, but Jalin Hyatt was on the field and in a route for 59% of the Giants’ passing dropbacks. It was the first time this season that he’s eclipsed a 40% route participation rate, and it could be a sign that his playing time is increasing. You can chalk the playing time up to garbage time in a blowout loss if you want to, but this is a New York team that has been competitive just once in 4 games, and Hyatt didn’t see this much playing time in the other two blowouts. I think the Giants are looking for anything to spark this offense, and Hyatt’s deep speed could be an answer. The Dolphins are double-digit favorites in this game, so the Giants should again be playing catch-up, but Miami’s pass defense has had significant struggles this season. They rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game. They also allowed 4 completions of 25+ yards to the Broncos in their week 3 blowout win, including 2 to rookie Marvin Mims Jr. We’ve seen Miami’s defense lose focus when playing with a comfortable lead, and with Hyatt’s deep speed, we only need that to happen a couple times for the rookie to have a fruitful game. This is much more of a DFS consideration rather than a recommendation to plug him into season-long lineups, but I like Hyatt’s chances of getting loose for a deep ball or two on Sunday.

TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): I’m just mentioning Washington here because the Steelers expect to be without Pat Freiermuth for a couple weeks with a hamstring injury, and that likely means a bigger role is coming for Washington in those games. He’s already played a snap share above 40% in each of the last 3 games, and I’d expect his route participation rate to come up with Muth sidelined. It was third-string tight end Connor Heyward who drew 4 targets in week 1 when Freiermuth was banged up, but Washington has a lot more size than Heyward and could be an attractive red zone target. I wouldn’t plug Washington into lineups this week against Baltimore (the Ravens allow the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game), but he’s worth a flyer in deep TE premium leagues in case he takes a true lead tight end role ahead of Heyward. The Steelers face a bottom-10 TE defense in week 7, and Freiermuth might not be back yet for that game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! With Taylor Swift not at the Chiefs-Vikings game last weekend, it freed all of us up to focus on the dominant storyline that actually matters to the fantasy football season: injuries. The first five weeks of the season have been an absolute meat grinder for fantasy lineups. If you haven’t lost a star player to injury yet, count yourself lucky. Week 5 added some more prominent names to the list – Justin Jefferson, James Conner, Anthony Richardson, and De’Von Achane all hit injured reserve this week. All you can do when you lose key players is keep plugging away and find suitable replacements.

The rookie crop continued to impress in week 5, as Puka Nacua wasn’t phased at all by the return of Cooper Kupp, Bijan Robinson scored one of the coolest highlight-reel touchdowns of the season to-date, and Bryce Young posted his first 3-TD game of his career. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and Josh Downs turned in solid fantasy games as well, and there are some new rookies who could make an impact in week 6 and beyond as a result of last weekend’s injuries. There’s a lot to sort out with the rookies this week, and luckily, I’m here to walk you through it as always.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 6:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. Was.): Bijan hasn’t quite been the top-5 back that we drafted him to be thus far in his rookie campaign, but with so many top backs banged up or underperforming, Robinson is still a locked-in top-10 RB option every week. He’s scored 10+ PPR points and handled 14+ touches in every game this season, and that workload should be plenty against a middling Commanders run defense. Washington has allowed the 13^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 16^th in Aaron Schatz’s run defense DVOA. Keep Bijan in the lineup this week.

WR Puka Nacua, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Nacua’s first week with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup went as swimmingly as we could’ve hoped. He tallied 7-71-1 on 11 targets against the Eagles last Sunday. It’s true last weekend’s game script was largely neutral, and this week’s could be more positive with the Rams favored by 6.5 points, but Nacua should be able to do damage before the game gets out of hand against an Arizona team that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 7^th-most WR points per game. Keep starting Puka with confidence. 

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 6: @TB): LaPorta set season-low marks in targets and receptions in week 5, but he found the end zone twice en route to a TE5 finish for the week. He gets his toughest test of the season this week against a Bucs defense that ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game, but Sammy Ballgame has finished as a top-8 TE in 4 out of 5 games this season. I wouldn’t lump him in with the elite TEs this week given the tougher matchup, but he’s still a top-10 option at the position for me. LaPorta popped up on the injury report as a DNP on Thursday, so keep an eye on this situation and have a backup plan ready to go if for some reason LaPorta doesn’t play.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Keep an eye on the injury report here as Johnson is still trying to get cleared from a concussion suffered last Thursday, but with Khalil Herbert sidelined by a multi-week injury, Johnson should be in line for the lead back role this week if he can get cleared in time. D’Onta Foreman would undoubtedly mix in as well, but Johnson could be in line for 15 or so touches against a Minnesota team that ranks 14^th in run defense DVOA. I’d treat Johnson as a high-end RB3 or better if he’s able to play this week.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 6: @Chi.): Addison realistically could be placed in the category above this one this week with Justin Jefferson on IR. Reports from the team have indicated that KJ Osborn will step into the Vikings “X” WR role that Jefferson usually plays, but Addison is averaging 6 targets per game and should see an uptick in targets while JJ is out. There’s a chance that the Vikings will lean on the run game more this week with Jefferson out, but the Bears’ defense ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA and the Vikings lead the NFL in passing attempts. There’s no guarantee that the game script will be positive this week with how resurgent the Bears’ offense has been in the last two games. I’d feel confident starting Addison as a WR3 this week.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Flowers finished as the PPR WR25 last week while leaving at least a dozen more points on the field due to drops and stumbles, and this week he faces a Tennessee defense that allows the 8^th-most WR points per game and ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing team’s WR1. Flowers should be locked into lineups as a solid WR3 in a plus matchup. The usage should continue to be strong as Flowers has earned a 30% target share for the season.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The injury to Anthony Richardson might prove to be a good thing for Downs. The Colts should be an inherently more pass-heavy team with Gardner Minshew at QB, and although Downs won’t see more downfield targets with Minshew, he’s likely to see more targets overall. Minshew has averaged 38 pass attempts per game in his last 3 starts in a Shane Steichen offense, and Downs earned 12 targets in Minshew’s one start this year (no more than 7 in any other game this season). Look for Minshew to continue to pepper Downs with short targets this week, and he should again be able to compile his way to a PPR WR3 performance against a middling Jacksonville WR defense (15^th-most WR points allowed per game).

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): Rice has continued to earn targets at a high rate when he’s on the field, and he posted a top-24 finish last week after finding the end zone for the 2^nd time this season. The concern is that Rice’s playing time has been inconsistent. He was in a route on just 23% of the team’s passing dropbacks in week 5, but every Kansas City skill player is in play this week against a barely-there Broncos defense. Denver ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and the Chiefs have the 2^nd-highest implied Vegas point total for the week. Rice is targeted on more than a third of his routes run, and against this defense, he’s got a chance at another WR2 finish if things break his way this week. There’s a lower floor here than you might be comfortable with, but enough upside to give him strong consideration.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 6: @LAR): Wilson dropped a disappointing dud on us in week 5 with just 1 catch for 18 yards, but I think a bounce-back could be in the offing this week. 15 of Wilson’s 18 targets this season have come vs. zone coverage, and the Rams play zone at one of the highest rates in the league. LA has allowed the 5^th fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA and are nearly a touchdown favorite in this game, so the Cardinals should be throwing. Wilson topped 50 yards in 3 straight games prior to last week’s dud, and I like his chances to get back there this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Stroud has been easily the most consistent of the rookie QBs so far this season, putting up at least 240 yards in every start and multiple TDs in 3 out of 5. But perhaps the craziest stat about Stroud is that he hasn’t taken a single sack in the last 3 games despite playing behind a beleaguered offensive line. The Saints present a new challenge this week. They’ve allowed the 7^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA. Baker Mayfield was able to throw 3 TDs against these Saints a couple weeks ago, so there is hope, but Stroud has finished higher than QB12 just once. This week, in a tough matchup, doesn’t feel like a good spot to bet on him to finish higher than that again. He’s a QB2 option for week 6.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 6: @TB): Gibbs managers got some cold water dumped on them this week as Detroit head coach Dan Campbell talked up David Montgomery’s role as the team’s workhorse back and referred to Gibbs as a “change of pace” guy. It’s what we’ve already seen play out on the field so far this season, but it still feels like pouring salt in an open wound to hear Campbell say it out loud. Gibbs’ workload in that change of pace role will keep him in the range of flex options for fantasy leagues, but the matchup this week is one that I don’t feel great about for him. The Bucs allow the 12^th-fewest RB points per game, and they rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing running backs. That dicey matchup puts Gibbs on the wrong side of the borderline for me…and that’s if he’s even able to play. He’s still questionable after suffering a hamstring injury late last week that kept him out in week 5.

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 6: @LAR): James Conner has been placed on IR after suffering a knee injury against the Bengals in week 5, opening a void in the Cardinals’ backfield. Demercado has emerged as the popular waiver wire choice to replace him after tallying 53 yards and a score against Cincy, but things get messier with the return of Keaontay Ingram this week. Ingram was the backup to Conner to open the season, and opened the door to playing time for Demercado with a neck injury he suffered in week 3. Ingram is expected to return this week, and the Cardinals have officially listed him as the starter on the depth chart. The likeliest outcome here is that both backs split the backfield work, with early downs leaning more toward Ingram and passing downs more toward Demercado. Emari ran double the passing routes that Ingram did in the games where both were active, and his 3 receptions last week are just two short of Ingram’s career total of 5. The Cardinals are likely to be significant underdogs in each of their next 4 games, so I’d prioritize Demercado over Ingram as a pickup, especially in PPR leagues, but both will make for dicey start options outside of deep leagues.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 6: @KC): McLaughlin looked explosive in the last two weeks, piling up over 80 scrimmage yards with a TD in each game, but the return of Javonte Williams this week likely causes this to devolve into a messy 3-way committee. With Williams out last week, McLaughlin played only half as many snaps as Samaje Perine, but he made the most of those opportunities with 12 touches on 19 snaps. Williams is off the injury report and will play on Thursday, so I’d expect Jaleel to see closer to 5-8 touches against the Chiefs. That’s just not enough work to trust him in lineups unless you’re desperate.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 6: @Hou.): Miller had his best game of the season in week 5, tallying 90 scrimmage yards on 16 touches, but he was out-touched by Alvin Kamara 11-to-2 prior to the Saints going ahead by 3 touchdowns. The bulk of his work came in garbage time. Of course, there’s a chance that there’s more garbage time this week against the Texans, but Houston has been better than expected so far and enters the week as just a 1.5-point underdog. Miller likely doesn’t see the same workload this week and should be kept on the bench.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): The Titans have struggled to control games early on this season, and Spears has benefited from those struggles. As the primary receiving back, he inevitably gets more playing time when the Titans are behind on the scoreboard, and that’s resulted in him playing more than 50% of the team snaps in 4 out of 5 games this year. He’s also earned 4+ targets in 4 out of 5 games this year. I don’t like his chances of turning in a strong game against the Ravens even if he hits those marks for a 5^th time. Baltimore allows the 11^th-fewest RB points per game this year, and only two backs have topped 12 PPR points against them on the season (Joe Mixon and Zack Moss). The Titans are 4-point underdogs, so they should be playing from behind and afford Spears his usual workload, but I’d expect that to lead to high single-digit points against the Ravens.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Charbonnet still isn’t seeing quite enough work to get real consideration for lineups. He played his lowest snap share of the season in week 4 against the Giants, but he did put up 40 scrimmage yards in that game. He’s done his best work in Seattle’s multi-score wins over the Panthers and Giants, and this week’s game seems unlikely to be a lopsided win as the Bengals got their mojo back last Sunday. Cincy is favored by 3 points in this game. The Bengals do rank 30^th in run defense DVOA, so Charbonnet should have a chance to have success with his opportunities. I’m just not confident that he’ll get enough of them to help your fantasy lineup this week.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Dell isn’t practicing as of Thursday as he tries to clear the concussion protocol. As of now, it seems that he’ll miss this game with the Saints. Normally, I would be bullish on his outlook against the Saints as Dell averages nearly 5 yards per route run against man coverage, and the Saints play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. But with no practice time this week, and the Saints ranking 7^th in pass defense DVOA, I’d be inclined to sit Tank even if he gets cleared in time.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Mingo is coming off his best game of the season, putting up 5 catches for 48 yards on 7 targets in Detroit, but it was the first time all season that a healthy Mingo played behind DJ Chark in the WR pecking order. He was down to an 82% route participation rate after being above 90% in each of the first two games of the season. Mingo may have an extra chip on his shoulder this week due to rumors that the team will try to trade for Jerry Jeudy, but Mingo’s best game of the season didn’t earn him a top-36 finish last week. If you believe that the Panthers are better this week with a simplified offense, you could consider Mingo as a WR4 option, but I think the best course of action would be to leave him benched.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Johnston was up near a 70% route participation rate in week 4 ahead the Chargers’ bye with Mike Williams sidelined, but he still hasn’t topped 3 targets or 20 yards in a game, and Dallas allows the 4^th-fewest WR points per game. It doesn’t help Johnston that Dallas plays more man coverage than any other defense in the league. Per Roto Underworld, Johnston wins vs. man coverage just 11.1% of the time (121^st-best rate in the league). His breakout probably won’t happen this week.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cin.): You probably don’t need me to tell you to sit JSN at this point. He’s reached 5 or more PPR points just once in the first 4 games, and the team refuses to use him down the field. His aDOT for the season is under 4 yards, and the Bengals rank 9^th in the league in pass defense DVOA on short throws. You shouldn’t be counting on a breakout game for Smith-Njigba this week.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. NYG): Keep an eye on the injury report here. Both Kincaid and Dawson Knox are listed as questionable and logging limited practices this week. If both play, Kincaid shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than an uninspiring TE2 option, but if Knox sits and Kincaid plays, there’s a little bit more upside for the rookie than usual. The Giants have allowed just the 12^th-fewest TE points per game, but that’s mostly because they haven’t allowed a tight end to score a TD. They’ve given up 8+ PPR points to a tight end in each of the last 3 games. Kincaid might be a fringe TE1 option if Knox sits.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Wk. 6: vs. SF): Deshaun Watson’s status still remains up in the air for this week’s tilt with the 49ers, but the Browns have said that if Watson can’t play, it’ll be PJ Walker who gets the start this time rather than DTR. Thompson-Robinson looked to be in over his head in his first start against Baltimore, and I’d imagine he’d suffer similar struggles if he got a chance against the 49ers.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): Bigsby has handled exactly 3 opportunities in each of the last 3 games, and even if he scores a TD, that kind of workload isn’t going to be helpful in your lineups. He did see 7 carries and 1 target and found the end zone against the Colts in week 1, but nothing about his workload since that game suggests a repeat is likely here.

RB Eric Gray, NYG (Wk. 6: @Buf.): Gray got some extended opportunity last weekend with Saquon Barkley still sidelined, but he turned 13 touches into just 26 scoreless yards, and the Bills rank 13^th in run defense DVOA. Buffalo has struggled with top end backs like De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne all reaching 100 rush yards against them, but I expect they’ll have considerably less trouble with Gray if Barkley is out again. Even if Saquon sits, Gray will continue to split the backfield work with Matt Breida. Barkley has gotten in limited practices to start the week.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Tucker has totaled 23 rushing yards on 15 carries in his last 3 games combined, and this week faces a Detroit defense that ranks 4^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. We can hope that Tucker got himself right over the bye week, but there’s no reason to expect a breakout game here.

RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Ten.): Mitchell spent the first 5 weeks of the season on IR but looks likely to be activated this week. He beat out Melvin Gordon for a roster spot in training camp, so it’s possible that he immediately supplants Gordon as their RB3, but it’s a role that likely means only a few touches per game when both Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are active, as they should be this week.

RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 6: @LAC): Vaughn is averaging 5 touches per game this season, and while he hasn’t done much with those touches (9.9 total PPR points), the Chargers do allow the 8^th-most RB points per game. The problem for Vaughn is that just 7 of his 25 touches for the year have come in situations where the Cowboys were closer than 28 points apart from their opponents on the scoreboard. His usage has been almost entirely in garbage time, and the point spread in this game is just 2 points, so there shouldn’t be much of that.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Palmer has played close to a full-time role in the Bucs last two games, logging route participation rates of 86% and 79% in weeks 3 & 4, but he’s yet to top 3 targets in a game this season. He’s scored 2 TDs already this year, but he’s only reached 10 yards in a game once. The targets in the offense continue to funnel to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and that won’t change this week. If for some reason the hamstring injury Evans suffered in week 4 keeps him out this week, Palmer would bump up to a WR4/5 option, but all reports have suggested that Evans should be back for week 6. 

WR Jaylin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 6: @Buf.): Hyatt’s playing time has been headed in the right direction, and he’s been 2^nd among the Giants’ WRs behind Darius Slayton in routes run in each of the last two games, but he’s been targeted just 5 times on 98 routes run for the season. The problem is that Hyatt is mostly used on clear-out deep routes, and even when he’s able to get open on those routes, the Giants’ o-line isn’t holding up long enough to let Daniel Jones hit Hyatt on those plays. That shouldn’t change this week. No team has allowed more sacks this season than the Giants, and no defense has recorded more sacks than the Bills. Buffalo has racked up 18 sacks in the last 3 weeks, and they should make life miserable for Jones in week 6. Hyatt only needs 1 deep ball to turn in a respectable performance, but I don’t like the chances of Daniel Jones having enough time in the pocket to make that happen. If Jones misses this game and Tyrod Taylor starts instead I don’t think it will change a whole lot for Hyatt.

WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Iosivas finally saw his first real opportunities with Tee Higgins sidelined in week 6, and while he made the most of his chances, his role isn’t big enough for fantasy consideration. Iosivas ran just 15 routes and was targeted twice, though he did make a dazzling toe-tap catch (that didn’t count when he was incorrectly ruled out of bounds and Zac Taylor opted not to challenge). He may continue to play an ancillary role until Higgins returns, but it won’t be a big enough role to use him in any lineups.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 6: @LV): Douglas is still fighting to clear the concussion protocol ahead of this week’s game, but even if he gets cleared, his limited role could get even smaller this week with the return of Tyquan Thornton from IR.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 6: vs. NE): After totaling just 1 catch for 2 yards in the first 4 weeks of the season, Mayer finally broke through with 2 grabs for 39 yards on Monday night against Green Bay. It was a promising performance for the rookie, but his route participation rate (46% in week 5) still leaves something to be desired. Mayer could be an intriguing speculative add for the back half of the season, but you can’t thrust him into lineups just yet.

 Rookies on Byes in Week 6: WRs Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks, GB, TE Luke Musgrave, GB, TE Darnell Washington, PIT

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Young posted his best game as a pro in week 5, piling up 247 yards and 3 TDs against the Lions, mostly in garbage time. He should be in line for more garbage time with the Dolphins favored by nearly 2 TDs this week. Garbage time passing opportunities don’t automatically mean another good game is coming for Bryce, but the Dolphins rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA on short throws, and Young has the 3^rd-shortest average target depth out of 33 qualified QBs. The Panthers have also talked about simplifying the offense going forward, and if that change delivers positive results Bryce should be able to finish as a mid-range QB2 this week.

RB Christopher Brooks, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): The Dolphins got devastating news this week when they learned that De’Von Achane’s injury suffered late in week 5 will require a stint on injured reserve for the dynamic runner. Raheem Mostert seems sure to see lots of action going forward, but it remains to be seen how the rest of the backfield will shake out while Achane is sidelined. The Dolphins may get both Salvon Ahmed and Jeff Wilson Jr. back from injury this week, but don’t discount the chances that Christopher Brooks carves out a role for himself. Brooks is a physical downhill runner who usually gets more than what’s blocked for him, and the Dolphins are going to like that even if he doesn’t have the type of speed of the other weapons in this offense. Don’t be surprised when Brooks is used as the closer in any blowout wins, like he was against the Broncos in week 3. Miami is a 2-TD favorite against the Panthers this week, so Brooks could have a prime opportunity for that kind of work this weekend against a Carolina defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA. He’s in play as a dart throw in deep leagues and DFS tournaments for week 6, but he’s also worth a waiver claim if you don’t need him this week in case he earns more than just that closer role.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Evans isn’t a guy you can use anywhere right now, but he should be on your radar in deeper leagues, especially dynasty formats. Thus far, the Rams have been content to run Kyren Williams out at RB on more than 80% of their offensive snaps, but he’s been terribly inefficient with his opportunities. He ranks 37^th out of 41 qualified running backs in rushing yards over expectation. If that continues, the Rams may eventually look to improve their output at the position, and Evans could be the guy to get that opportunity. You don’t have to pick him up right this moment, but you should be aware of the situation.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 6: @KC): Mims isn’t likely to haul in a deep ball this week against a Kansas City defense that ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, but he’s worth a speculative add if he’s still on your waiver wire as the Broncos released Lil’Jordan Humphrey this week and rumors are running rampant that Jerry Jeudy will be traded in short order. If Jeudy is moved, the team may finally have no choice but to give more playing time to the rookie wide receiver who ranks 1^st in the league with nearly 5 yards per route run. You’d be wise to beat the rush to the waiver wire when the Jeudy trade does happen and pick Mims up before it does.

WR Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Davis is worth keeping an eye on in leagues that give bonus points for return yards. With Mike Williams gone for the season, Davis was used as the WR4, and the team made a point to get him a few gadget touches in the run game with some success. Davis totaled 67 scrimmage yards on 5 touches in week 4. He also serves as the Chargers primary return man, so while he’s merely a deep league stash for now, it wouldn’t take a full role in the offense for him to have value in return yardage leagues. Think of him as the Chargers’ version of KaVontae Turpin.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 was one of those weeks that set offense in the NFL back by a decade. Offensive output was already trending down this season, but it hit new lows in week 6, with 13 of the 15 games on the schedule finishing with 40 or fewer total points scored. No NFL week last season had more than 9 games of 40 or less. Usually, it takes terrible weather to get the kinds of scores we saw last week, but this time it was mostly just abysmal offense. The low game scores also led to lower fantasy scoring for the week. Look back at your fantasy scoreboard through the season…I’d bet the league high score for week 6 was 20 points lower than it’s been in any other week this season.

The rookie crop was affected just like everyone else, as the 3 rookies who have been the most reliable all season (Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, and Sam LaPorta) each had their worst, or in Bijan’s case, 2^nd-worst, fantasy game of the season. There were a few bright spots as all of Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and Josh Downs found the end zone, and tight end Michael Mayer finished as the PPR TE5 for the week, but there were plenty of duds too. Emari Demercado, Quentin Johnston, and Kendre Miller were all non-factors last weekend after playing bigger roles in previous weeks.

Things only get tougher in week 7. Injuries have continued to pile up, and this week is one of two this season where 6 teams are on byes. You’re likely going to be starting some players you wouldn’t usually start, and you might be looking at some rookies who have been riding your bench. Keep that bye situation in mind as you read through these rookie outlooks for the week. The limited options have bumped some rookies to the right side of the borderline, and bumped others into consideration who normally shouldn’t be on your radar.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s talk about what to expect in week 7:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 7: @TB): Bijan still hasn’t shown off the ceiling we were hoping for from him this season, but his receiving work continues to buoy his weekly floor. Robinson has tallied at least 10 PPR points in every game this season, and he’s logged 14+ touches in every game as well. The Bucs have been stingy to running backs, allowing the 9^th-fewest points per game to the position, but Robinson remains a top-12 play for week 7, even in this tougher matchup.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Nacua put up his worst fantasy game of the season in week 6, but he still saw 7 targets and faces off this week with a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game. The Steelers have been much more vulnerable to slot receivers than guys on the perimeter, so it may set up as a better matchup for Cooper Kupp than for Puka, but you’ll likely be kicking yourself if you sit the rookie this week because of that. He should still see enough volume to be a solid WR2, especially with the Rams’ backfield in flux due to injuries.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 7: @Bal.): LaPorta’s performance was a bit disappointing in week 6 as he tallied just 4 catches for 36 yards and finished as the PPR TE17 for the week, but he was targeted a whopping 11 times for over 100 intended air yards. He was facing a tough matchup with the Bucs and gets another tough matchup with Baltimore this week (the Ravens allow the fewest TE points per game), but very few tight ends have the kind of weekly upside that LaPorta offers. He’s still a safe top-8 TE option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Gibbs missed the last two games with injury but returns at the right time with David Montgomery now sidelined by a rib issue. Craig Reynolds handled the bulk of the work in spot duty last week after Monty went out, but Gibbs was on the field for nearly 60% of the offensive snaps the last time Montgomery missed a game. I’d expect a similar workload for him here. Baltimore isn’t an easy matchup. They rank 7^th in FTN’s run defense DVOA and have allowed the 15^th-fewest RB points per game, but a player with Gibbs’ skills in a lead back role this week is a top-20 option no matter the opponent. You can sit him if you’ve got multiple top-15 backs ahead of him, but if not, you should be firing Gibbs up in week 7.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Keep a close eye on the injury report here. Roschon still isn’t practicing due to a concussion suffered in week 5, but this would be a great opportunity for a big day if he’s able to get cleared in time. The Raiders rank 27^th in run defense DVOA, and the Bears should be inclined to lean on the run game to help Tyson Bagent in his first NFL start. Johnson would likely split the workload with D’Onta Foreman if he’s able to return, but that could still mean 12-15 touches in a good matchup. If Johnson plays, he’s an RB3 option this week.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): The Ravens’ new-look Todd Monken passing game hasn’t exactly lived up to what it was billed to be, but it has succeeded in making Flowers a consistent weekly WR2/3 option. Flowers has reached 50 scrimmage yards in all 6 games this season and double-digit PPR points in 5 of them. Detroit boasts the best defense the franchise has had in years, ranking 5^th in pass defense DVOA, but I wouldn’t let that chase me off of starting Flowers as a WR3 this week. The Lions have allowed the 13^th-most WR points per game, and Zay has earned a 24% or higher target share in 5 of 6 games this year. There’s no reason to avoid Flowers this week if you’ve been using him up until now.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 7: vs. SF): In the Vikings first game without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, Addison was in a route on 100% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks and managed to salvage a lackluster receiving day with a touchdown, finishing with 3-28-1 on 5 targets. It’s worth noting that the Vikings played largely from ahead, and that Cousins logged his 2^nd-lowest pass attempt total of the season. The Vikings are a touchdown underdog this week and should return to a pass-first game script against the 49ers. Minnesota has thrown the ball at least 44 times in all 4 of their losses this year. There’s a chance they rein in the extreme passing volume with Jefferson out, but I’d still expect them to push towards 40 attempts in this one. That means Addison will likely see 7-8 targets, and while this matchup looks tough on paper, the 49ers have allowed the 6^th-most WR receptions per game. They’ve given up 14+ PPR points to all of Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Michael Wilson, Marquise Brown, and Amari Cooper this season. There is some risk that the 49ers will completely stifle the Vikings’ offense in this game, but I’d lean toward trusting Addison to put up 50+ yards and find his way to a WR3 day.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 7: @Sea.): Wilson has now topped 50 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games even though he made us wait until the end of the game to get there in week 6. Wilson finished with 3-63 on 4 targets against the Rams last weekend, and 2 of the catches and 45 of the yards came in the last 5 minutes of the game. We won’t fault him for that though. Wilson’s production profile is a big help in deciding when to start him. Every catch he’s posted this season has come against zone coverage, and the Seahawks play zone coverage at the 2^nd-highest rate in the league (86.5%). The Cards are 8-point underdogs and should be throwing plenty, so Wilson should be in line for another game with 50+ yards against a defense that plays to his strengths. Seattle has allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game this year.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): Rice has tallied double-digit PPR points in 4 out of 6 games this year despite not logging a route participation rate higher than 51% in any game this season. He’s been right around 50% in 3 of the last 4 games, and that kind of playing time probably means another WR3 finish against a Chargers’ defense that allows the most WR points per game and ranks 21^st in pass defense DVOA. I’d like to see Rice’s playing time increase before we start treating him as an every-week starter, but I like him this week in a plus matchup with 6 teams on byes.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 7: @Den.): Musgrave returned last week from the concussion he suffered in week 5 and earned a 24% target share in his first game back, and now he faces a Denver defense that has allowed the most TE fantasy points in the league. The Broncos gave up 20+ PPR points to Travis Kelce and Cole Kmet this season, and 10+ to both Logan Thomas and Tyler Conklin. The Packers’ offense would prefer to be run-heavy, and the Broncos’ run defense is just as bad as the pass defense, so passing volume could be low for Green Bay this week. I think Musgrave’s role in the passing game is big enough that I like his chances to overcome that low volume and finish as a top-12 tight end this week with the limited slate of games.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): With just 26 teams in action this week, every starting QB is at least a borderline option in superflex leagues. That includes both rookie signal callers getting the nod in the Raiders-Bears tilt on Sunday, though both of those guys are close to the bottom of the list of the 26 starting options. The Raiders have played coy about whether it will be O’Connell or the veteran Brian Hoyer under center for them this week, but Raiders blogs are all insisting it’ll be O’Connell. If that proves to be true, I’d prioritize him over Bears’ starter Tyson Bagent if you’re deciding between the two. The Raiders have better weapons than the Bears, and a better defense. O’Connell already showed that he knows how to get the ball to those weapons, dishing out 63% of the targets in his first start to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. He threw the ball reasonably well in that game but was hampered by turnovers. He was intercepted once and lost two fumbles. Again, I wouldn’t start O’Connell out of anything more than desperation, but there’s a chance he won’t kill you against a Chicago defense that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game.

QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): On the other side of the rookie vs rookie QB matchup, Bagent’s outlook isn’t quite as rosy as O’Connell’s. While the Bears’ defense has been among the worst in the league, the Raiders have at least been competent, ranking 16^th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 12^th-fewest QB points per game. Bagent put up crooked passing numbers in college at D-II Shepherd University, but he won’t find NFL defenses to be nearly as forgiving, and he offers little upside as a runner. Bagent rushed for 25+ yards just twice last season in college. The rookie had some success moving the ball in relief of Justin Fields last Sunday, but he averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and turned the ball over twice in only a quarter and a half of action. Like O’Connell, Bagent is an ‘only if you’re desperate’ superflex option this week. He might be my 26^th ranked starting QB for the week (out of 26).

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. GB): As expected, the Broncos backfield devolved into a 3-man rotation in week 6 with Javonte Williams back in the lineup, but the split wasn’t nearly as bad for McLaughlin as it could’ve been. Samaje Perine handled the snaps in the 2-minute offense, but Javonte and McLaughlin split the rest of the work between just the two of them. Javonte handled 10 rushing attempts and McLaughlin handled 7 carries and 2 targets. That level of volume will make it hard to start either back with much confidence going forward, but they do get a favorable matchup in week 7. Green Bay has allowed the 5^th-most running back points per game. They rank 26^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most running back receptions per game and 5^th-most running back receiving yards as well. 8-10 touches are probably all you can count on from McLaughlin this week, but that could be enough for a useful fantasy week if you’re stuck due to byes/injuries.

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 7: @Sea.): There was a lot of hype around Demercado last week after James Conner went on IR, but his outing was a huge letdown to fantasy players who were counting on him. He put up 17 scrimmage yards on just 3 touches and was outproduced by both Keaontay Ingram and Damien Williams. Something that may have been overlooked in the box score though is that Demercado led the backfield in snaps played and ran twice as many routes as Ingram and Dame combined. He played nearly all the 2-minute offense and long down & distance snaps. The Cardinals are 8-point underdogs this week, so they should be throwing plenty, and Demercado could lead the backfield in snaps and routes again. The question is will that turn into touches this week? There’s a chance that it does – the Seahawks have allowed the 9^th-most RB receptions and 11^th-most RB receiving yards per game - but this backfield is still too messy to count on more than a handful of PPR points out of Demercado.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Miller gets listed on the borderline this week because it’s such a limited slate of options, but he logged just 3 touches in a game with mostly neutral game script last weekend. This week’s contest should have a similarly neutral script with the Saints favored by a point. Kendre will likely see just a handful of touches spelling Alvin Kamara, and that role could get reduced even further with Jamaal Williams returning this week.  

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): The Seahawks got tackle Charles Cross back last weekend, and that led to them playing more 11-personnel than they have all season. JSN logged a season-high 81% route participation rate and posted his best fantasy game of the year with 4 catches for 48 yards on 5 targets. He also saw his highest aDOT of the season, but that aDOT was still just 7.4 yards, and he was only the PPR WR45 for the week. Arizona is a good WR matchup, ranking 31^st in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game, but game script should allow the Seahawks to throw a bit less than last week. Seattle is favored by 8 points in this game. Smith-Njigba should be in line for a similar 4-40 kind of game against the Cardinals, and that’s just not a line that will win you your matchup. Keep an eye on the Seahawks’ injury report this week if you’re considering JSN. Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are currently listed as questionable. If either player sits, it would be wheels up for JSN as a WR3 for week 7.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 7: @Den.): Reed gets a favorable matchup on paper against a Denver defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, but he also saw his lowest route participation rate of the season (59%) and just 2 targets in Green Bay’s last game with Christian Watson closer to full strength, and that was in a game with no Aaron Jones. The return of Jones this week muddies the passing game picture even further for the rookie, and the Packers would prefer to be a run-first team when they can be, and this week shapes up as a week where they can be. Denver is abysmal against the run too. With a limited role and limited team passing volume, this looks like a week where you should avoid Reed.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Palmer was finally able to somewhat emerge from the shadows behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last week and earned a whopping 7 targets against the Lions. He caught just 2 of those targets for 47 yards, but it was his first game all year with more than 3 targets and more than 20 receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Evans and Godwin still combined for 47% of the team targets, and Palmer logged a lower route participation rate in week 6 than he did in the two previous games. Tampa was playing from behind all game and had their highest pass attempt total of the season, opening the door for Palmer’s big target day. Game script should be a bit more neutral this week, with Tampa favored by 2.5 points, so I wouldn’t expect the same overall passing volume, or the same target share for Palmer. It was a good sign to see him earn substantial targets in week 6, but I’d expect him back in the 3-4 target range this week. Atlanta allows the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Evans and Godwin are the guys who are going to score those points, if anyone.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Downs scored his first career TD last Sunday and has now earned 20 targets in the two full games Gardner Minshew has played, but this Cleveland defense is going to be a whole different challenge for the Colts’ passing game. Downs has averaged just 7.9 yards per catch on throws from Minshew and has made his living on short throws, and Cleveland ranks 2^nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on short throws and hasn’t allowed more than 15 completions against them in any game this season. It’s going to be very difficult for Downs to compile his way to a useful PPR day against this defense unless they have an out-of-character game, and I wouldn’t count on Gardner Minshew to be the QB who solves this matchup. I’d keep the rookie parked on the bench this week even with so many players out on byes.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Mayer took another big step forward in week 6. He followed up a season-best game in week 5 by essentially doubling his production in week 6. Mayer is now the clear lead tight end for the Raiders after logging a 67% route participation rate and dropping a TE5 PPR finish on the Patriots. Mayer is on the streamer tight end radar going forward, but Aidan O’Connell at QB this week would make me lean against using him even in a good matchup. The Bears have allowed 6+ receptions to a tight end in 4 of the last 5 games, so Mayer is probably a top-15 option this week. Just know there’s a built-in risk if O’Connell gets the starting nod.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 7: @NE): Kincaid may return this week, but he’s still reached 30 receiving yards just once in 5 games played and faces a New England defense that has been in the top-12 at limiting tight end fantasy points. Kincaid’s production has been hurt by the way defenses are treating the Bills’ two tight end sets. Buffalo was in 12-personnel at the 2^nd highest rate in the league during the first 5 weeks of the season but opposing defenses have treated it like a 3-wide set, usually lining up in nickel or dime against it rather than a base defense. The extra defensive backs on the field have removed the mismatches that Kincaid would get against base defenses. The Bills could force teams out of nickel and dime by running the ball successfully from those looks, but instead they rank 28^th in the league in expected points added per rush when in 12-personnel. That’s going to make it hard to force defenses into base fronts and hard for Kincaid to increase his production going forward. I’d view him as a TE2 for this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. NO): Bigsby is yet to reach 15 scrimmage yards in a game this season. He played his highest snap share of the season in week 6 but logged just 4 touches in the process. You’re just praying for a TD if you plug him into lineups, and the Saints are yet to allow an opposing running back to reach the end zone.

RB Christopher Brooks, MIA (Wk. 7: @Phi.): I was hopeful Brooks could pile up a useful fantasy week in garbage time last Sunday, but the Panthers took an early lead and limited just how much opportunity Brooks would get. He did see a handful of late carries in week 6 and broke off a highlight-reel angry run for 28 yards, but that run accounted for all his rushing yards on the day, and he was carted off with an ankle injury before the game was over. The team has called his injury ‘week-to-week’ so I’d be surprised if he’s able to play in week 7, but I wouldn’t consider him if he’s able to go. There won’t be much garbage time in a tough matchup with the Eagles, and Philly ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Tucker was active and played 11 special teams snaps in week 6, but he seems to for now have fallen behind Ke’Shawn Vaughn for the RB2 role. Tucker didn’t play a single offensive snap against the Lions while Vaughn handled 6 carries and 2 targets behind Rachaad White. Tucker is off the fantasy radar for now.

RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Mitchell was activated off IR in week 6, but he didn’t play a single offensive snap. He’s not worth a roster spot.

WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Tucker had a breakout game of sorts in week 6, putting up 61 scrimmage yards on 3 touches while logging a season-high 55% route participation rate. He operated as the team’s WR3 in this game and seemed to have an especially strong connection with backup QB Brian Hoyer. Both of his receptions in this game came from Hoyer, as did another target that resulted in a defensive pass interference penalty. The playing time is a great sign for Tucker, but the problem is that reports have indicated that the Raiders will turn to rookie Aidan O’Connell at QB rather than the veteran Hoyer with Jimmy Garoppolo unable to play. O’Connell leaned heavily on Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs in his first start, and I’d expect he’ll do the same in this matchup. The Bears do rank just 30^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so there’s a chance that the speedy Tucker gets loose for a deep ball in this one, but I’d err on the side of benching him in fantasy lineups.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 7: vs. GB): It pains me to have to keep listing Mims here when we’ve seen the kind of tantalizing upside he possesses, but the Broncos continue to stubbornly keep him off the field. Mims has run just 19 routes in the last two games and garnered just 1 target that he turned into a 4-yard catch. Sean Payton was asked about getting him onto the field more, and Payton mentioned that it’s difficult with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton ahead of him, seemingly not realizing that Brandon Johnson is also playing comfortably ahead of Mims. The Packers do rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so there is a sliver of hope that Mims gets loose for a deep ball in this game, but it's just not something you can count on. A goose egg is entirely possible.

WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 7: @KC): The injury to Mike Williams hasn’t resulted in the boost for the rookie Johnston that we hoped it would. There is a strong chance that the Chargers will have to throw quite a bit to keep pace with the Chiefs this week as 5.5-point underdogs, but Johnston hasn’t hit 20 receiving yards in a game yet and has maxed out at 3 targets. At some point those numbers should get better, but we’ve seen nothing to indicate that it happens this week. Fellow rookie Derius Davis got some gadget usage in week 4 in the first game after the Williams injury, but in week 6 after their bye, he had fallen behind Keelan Doss on the depth chart. Davis ran just one route on Monday night.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Douglas was cleared from his concussion this week, so he should return, and he’s shown an ability to earn targets when he’s on the field (27% target per route run rate), but I don’t really trust any parts of the New England passing game to produce against a Buffalo defense that ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA.

WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 7: @Min.): Bell shouldn’t be in consideration even if Deebo Samuel sits in this game. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this season.

TE Brenton Strange, JAX (Wk. 7: @NO): This is my obligatory ‘mention a rookie tight end because he scored a TD last week’ installment for this week. Strange saw a season-high snap share in week 6 as the Jaguars used more 12-personnel to cover for the absence of Zay Jones, and he totaled 2 catches for 27 yards and a TD on 3 targets. That was good enough to finish as the PPR TE11 in a low-scoring fantasy week, but he ran just 10 routes and shouldn’t be counted on to repeat that without a jump in playing time. He’s not a realistic consideration in lineups.

Rookies on Byes in Week 7: QB Bryce Young, CAR, QB CJ Stroud, HOU, QB Will Levis, TEN, RB Tyjae Spears, TEN, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR, WRs Tank Dell & Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Andre Iosivas, CIN, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Darnell Washington, PIT

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Malik Cunningham, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Cunningham isn’t someone you can plug into lineups this week, but he’s an intriguing bench stash in deeper superflex leagues now that he’s been anointed as the Pats’ QB2. The New England offense has been a mess, and Bill Belichick’s talk about the offense needing a full restart makes me think it might only take a couple more duds out of Mac Jones before they’re willing to try Cunningham as the starter. In the meantime, the Patriots will probably look to get him involved through sub packages and gadget plays that allow him to show off his playmaking ability. Cunningham was a true dual threat QB at Louisville, throwing for over 9,000 yards and rushing for over 3,000 in his college career, and we know how impactful that kind of dual threat skill can be for fantasy, especially in a season where passing stats are down as a whole. He shouldn’t be on the wire in most superflex dynasty leagues.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Evans has a chance to be thrust into a major role this week against a Pittsburgh defense that’s allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game. Ronnie Rivers was placed on IR this week and Kyren Williams is expected to miss multiple games, leaving the Rams with a huge void at running back. Evans would be the next man up, but they also elevated Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson and Myles Gaskin as well. How they divvy up the work this week is anyone’s guess, but I like Evans’ chances of performing well if he gets an extended opportunity. Darrell Henderson has familiarity with the offense, and Sean McVay does have a history of giving a big workload to a veteran back signed off the street. In 2018 when Todd Gurley was injured, the Rams signed CJ Anderson and gave him 87 touches over a 4-game stretch. Anderson did have a more extensive track record of 20+ touch workloads than Darrell Henderson does, so I’m not sure I’d expect quite that same kind of role here. The most likely outcome is that Henderson and Evans split touches this week until a hot hand emerges. I’d have a hard time plugging either player into lineups this week, but since this is a multi-week absence for the starting backs, both are worth waiver pickups if you’re struggling for RB starters.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Charbonnet played his lowest snap share of the season in week 5 and logged just 4 touches, but his busiest games of the year were Seattle’s two multi-score victories. He saw 8+ opportunities (carries + targets) and put up at least 40 scrimmage yards in both games that Seattle won by more than a touchdown. This week Seattle is an 8-point favorite, and the Cardinals rank 29^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game. Kenneth Walker III should be a slam dunk RB1 in this matchup, but Charbonnet should see enough work in this plus matchup to have some sneaky RB3 upside if you’re in a pinch due to bye weeks or injuries.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Was.): Don’t look now, but Hyatt has now logged 3 straight games with the 2^nd-most routes run among New York’s wide receivers and gets a very favorable matchup against a porous Commanders secondary. Hyatt’s production hasn’t really matched his boost in playing time, but if there was ever a week to throw a dart at that happening, this is it. The Commanders have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game and rank 24^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, coughing up 22 completions of 20+ yards and 6 completions of 50+ yards in just 6 games. They’ve given up deep balls to ancillary targets like Marvin Mims, Brandon Johnson, Rondale Moore and Gabe Davis. Hyatt is still just a boom-or-bust option, especially if Daniel Jones is back under center, but this feels like a week where we could see a boom. Hyatt costs just $2,000 for showdown contests on DraftKings. That’s a lower price tag than teammate Isaiah Hodgins has, even though Hyatt ran 4 times as many routes as Hodgins last week.

WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): With Chase Claypool shipped off to Miami and Equanimeous St. Brown on IR, Scott has moved up into the WR3 role in the offense. He logged a 66% route participation rate in week 6 and seemed to have a rapport with backup QB Tyson Bagent. Bagent attempted 14 passes in relief of Justin Fields against the Vikings. 6 of those went to DJ Moore, but Scott was his 2^nd-most targeted receiver with 3 targets. That doesn’t include a throw in Scott’s direction that resulted in a 36-yard pass interference penalty. The rookie finished the game with just 12 yards, but if Bagent continues looking in his direction this week against a middling Raiders’ defense, Scott could be an intriguing option in what should be a messy showdown DFS contest with two rookie signal callers.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! You’ve survived the week 7 bye-mageddon, and the scheduling gods have given you a reprieve for week 8 with no byes on the schedule. There will be more challenging bye weeks ahead, but all options are on the table this weekend. Unfortunately, that means there may be fewer rookies that are worth rolling the dice on with fewer lineup holes to be filled.

There are fewer rookies I’d lean toward starting this week than in a typical bye week, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t reasons to be excited for the rookie crop this weekend. We do get a couple of fun rookie matchups in week 8. We were deprived of Tyson Bagent vs Aidan O’Connell last week when the Raiders opted to start Brian Hoyer, but we get the rookie QB main event this week with CJ Stroud vs. Bryce Young in Carolina. Stroud has undoubtedly been the more impressive of the two so far this season, but this should be a fun game to watch with two QBs who should lead their franchises for the next few seasons or longer. We also get a fun tight end duel between Sam LaPorta and Michael Mayer, who were drafted with back-to-back picks in the early 2^nd round. LaPorta has been a stud tight end all season, but Mayer has been emerging in recent weeks.

We also get the chance to see if some highly touted rookies can build on the breakout games they had in week 7. Dalton Kincaid, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jahmyr Gibbs all posted their best days of the season and will be looking to keep it rolling in week 8. Hopefully, we’ll also get to see a bounce-back game out of Bijan Robinson after the Falcons skirted the injury-reporting rules last week and didn’t indicate that Robinson might be limited until well after their game had started. Robinson was limited to just 1 carry for the day on a handful of snaps due to headaches or some sort of illness that started Saturday night. Hopefully, he’s back to his usual self this week.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 8:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 8: @Ten.): Last week was brutal for anyone who started Robinson in fantasy lineups. There was no warning that anything was off with the star rookie until the game started and he wasn’t getting touches. He finished the day with just 1 carry for 3 yards. All I can tell you is to flush that game from your memory. Forget that it happened. Keep tabs on the injury report and make sure Bijan is ok this week, but if he’s good to go, he should be in your lineup, even in a tough matchup with the Titans. Tennessee ranks 4^th in FTN’s run defense DVOA stat and has allowed fewer than 12 running back points per game if you throw out an uncharacteristically bad performance against the Colts’ backs, but if Bijan is back to his usual 15+ touch role, he should be treated as no worse than a high-end RB2.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Last Sunday’s tilt with the Ravens was an ugly one for Detroit, but we finally got to see Jahmyr Gibbs in a true lead back role where he was actually used in both the run game and as a receiver (although he didn’t really produce much until garbage time). Gibbs touched the ball just 4 times in the first half as the Ravens dominated possession, but he finished with 68 yards and a score on the ground and 9-58 on 10 targets as a receiver. I wouldn’t count on 9 catches from Gibbs again this week – game script should be much more positive as an 8-point favorite – but he should continue to function as the lead back in a plus matchup while David Montgomery continues to recover from his rib injury. He could lose some goal line and short-yardage work to Craig Reynolds, but Gibbs should still see plenty of work against a Raiders’ defense that has allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game and ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. He’s a locked and loaded RB2 this week (assuming Monty doesn’t make a miracle return).

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Nacua faces a tough matchup against a Dallas defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt by now. You don’t worry about the matchups with Puka, you just plug him into the lineup. He’s averaged 10 targets and 84 yards per game in 3 contests since Cooper Kupp returned from IR.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 8: @GB): Addison had his coming out party on Monday night against the 49ers. He wasn’t used as the obvious WR1 in Minnesota’s first game without Justin Jefferson, but that changed in week 7. Addison set season highs in targets and air yards and led the team with 4 targets on 3^rd or 4^th down. Kirk Cousins looked for him when he needed someone to make a big play, and Addison obliged, making arguably the play of the game when he ripped an interception out of the hands of Charvarius Ward and sprinted for a long TD just before halftime. Addison should continue to function as the Vikings’ lead wide receiver until Justin Jefferson is able to return. This week that means a healthy number of targets against a defense that ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #1 receiver, and 30^th on deep throws. Addison is a solid WR2/3 this week. I’d give him a slight downgrade if Jaire Alexander returns for the Packers this week, but not enough of one that I’d sit him without great options in front of him.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): Flowers has scored double-digit PPR points in 6 of 7 games so far this season, and the Cardinals have allowed 15+ PPR points to an opposing receiver in 5 straight games. The Cardinals rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and the Ravens have the 4^th-highest implied point total of the week. Everything shapes up for Flowers to be an easy call to start as a WR3. He’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling in this matchup. He may be a good option for DFS tournaments this week as the Cards have coughed up 148+ yards to 3 of the last 4 WR1s they faced (Aiyuk, Chase, Kupp).

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): LaPorta faced one of the toughest tight end matchups in the league last weekend (Baltimore allows fewer than 30 tight end receiving yards per game), and he finished the week as the PPR TE10 with 6 catches and 52 yards on 7 targets. LaPorta has yet to finish below the PPR TE16 in any week this season, and his matchup this week is a little more forgiving than last week’s. There may be less passing volume for Detroit this week as 8-point favorites, but LaPorta is 2^nd on the team in targets, and the Raiders have allowed the 18^th-most TE points per game and rank just 22^nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing tight ends. LaPorta remains a top-10 tight end option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Stroud hasn’t had to throw a ton in recent weeks, averaging just 30.5 pass attempts per game in his last 4 contests, but he’s still managed to average 258 passing yards per game in that stretch, and he’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 of his last 5 games. His opponents this week, the Panthers, have allowed multiple passing TDs to each of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced, and 3 passing scores to each of the last 2. Carolina ranks just 18^th in pass defense DVOA and will likely struggle to contain the very efficient Stroud, who should have his receiving unit back at full strength with the return of Tank Dell. Stroud’s ceiling could be limited by his lower passing volume, but his recent performance trends and this matchup tell me he should be a fringe QB1 for week 8.

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): I list Young under the same header as CJ Stroud, but I don’t view them as comparable options this week. Stroud is in play for 1-QB leagues, while Young is a borderline option in 2-QB and superflex leagues. The Panthers have dropped each of their last 2 games by 3 scores, But Bryce recorded his two best fantasy games of the season in those contests and showed signs of improvement. The Panthers simplified their offense in week 6, and Young seemed to be more comfortable, at least early on in that game. He’s now had a bye week to make more strides and this week he faces a Houston team that has allowed the 9^th-most QB points per game and ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. The reasonable ceiling here is probably 250 yards and 2 scores, and the floor is still low, but I like Young’s chances of cracking the top-20 QBs for the week.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Johnson has missed 2 weeks now in the concussion protocol, so I’d be surprised if he wasn’t able to return this week. The matchup is a decent one against a Chargers’ defense that ranks 23^rd in run defense DVOA and has allowed an opposing back to reach 12+ fantasy points in each game this season, but Johnson will likely be splitting the workload with D’Onta Foreman this week after Foreman showed out against the Raiders last Sunday to the tune of 120 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. Johnson’s biggest advantage over Foreman this week will likely come in the passing game. Game script should keep the Bears throwing as 8.5-point underdogs, and while Foreman did draw 5 targets last weekend, the Bears showed a preference early in the year to use Johnson in passing situations. He was the primary option in long down & distance situations and in the 2-minute offense early in the season, and he should resume that role if he returns this week. The Chargers have allowed 4 different backs to catch at least 4 passes in their last 4 games, and the Bears’ RBs earned a 32% target share in Tyson Bagent’s first career start. Johnson has a great chance to finish as a PPR RB3 or better assuming he’s able to suit up this week.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 8: vs. NO): The injury to Anthony Richardson may not be great for the Colts’ franchise, but it’s been good for Josh Downs’ fantasy output. The Colts throw more with Gardner Minshew under center, and Downs is one of his favorite targets. In his last 5 starts in a Shane Steichen offense, Minshew has averaged 39 passing attempts and 298 yards per game. Downs has earned a 22.2% target share from Minshew this year, and he’s averaged 6 catches for 68 yards on 8.7 targets per game in Minshew’s 3 starts. He’s also found the end zone in two of them. The Saints do rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, so this isn’t an easy matchup, but they’ve allowed the 4^th-most receiving yards and 5^th-most yards after catch to opposing slot receivers. Downs is 4^th in the NFL in WR slot snaps. For the season the Saints have allowed 12+ fantasy points to 5 different wide receivers. 3 of them play primarily in the slot. They’ve given up slot receiving lines of 7-54-1 to Adam Thielen, 3-63 to Jayden Reed, 4-45-1 to Deven Thompkins, and 6-90-1 to Christian Kirk. I wouldn’t count on another 20-point game from Downs, but there’s reason to like him as a WR3 in this matchup, even if Michael Pittman Jr. gets a bit of squeaky wheel treatment this week after complaining about his role.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 8: @Den.): Rice has tallied 10+ PPR points in 4 of his last 5 games, logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend, and faces a defense this weekend that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. Rice has seen fluctuations in his weekly route participation rate, but his targets have been consistent. He’s been targeted 5+ times in 4 of the last 5 games (and targeted 4 times in the other). He’s had a solid PPR floor as a WR3/4 option, and this week he might have a little extra ceiling against an awful Broncos’ secondary. Rice’s 53.1% slot rate means he’ll likely avoid Patrick Surtain’s coverage.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. TB): Kincaid finally had the breakout game that we’ve been waiting for all season last week. I mentioned last week that Kincaid has struggled this season because defenses haven’t treated him as a tight end when both he and Dawson Knox were on the field. They’ve lined up in nickel and dime and covered Kincaid with a cornerback. Last weekend with Knox battling a wrist injury and playing limited snaps, Kincaid finally was able to be used more as a traditional tight end, and the result was 8 catches for 75 yards on 8 targets. It’s been reported that Knox will now have wrist surgery and likely be placed on IR. That means Kincaid gets the TE role all to himself for a bit. The matchup this week isn’t great against a Tampa defense that allows the 10^th-fewest TE points per game, but a player with Kincaid’s skills playing a full-time role with Josh Allen as his QB is a sure-fire top-12 option at the position.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Demercado is right on the borderline for me this week. He was a big disappointment in week 6 after being the hot waiver pickup of the week and then totaling just 3 touches against the Rams, but his underlying usage gave reasons for hope. He still led the Cardinals backs in snaps and routes run in that game, and in week 7, he was given the lead back role we expected in week 6. The TCU product handled 13 carries and 5 targets last weekend en route to a PPR RB22 finish against what has been a stingy Seahawks run defense. He should have a similar role this week but gets a similarly tough matchup with the Ravens. Baltimore ranks 7^th in run defense DVOA and is favored by 8.5 points in this game, so I wouldn’t count on Demercado getting much going on the ground. If he’s going to produce, he’s going to have to do it through the air, where he hasn’t been particularly efficient. The Ravens have been vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing 30+ receiving yards to 4 different running backs this season, but Demercado has averaged just 4.2 yards per target on the season. He’ll have to improve on that number or find the end zone this week if he wants to repeat or improve on that RB22 finish. He’s in play as an RB3 this week, but I don’t see a ton of ceiling in a matchup where points may be at a premium for the Cardinals.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Spears has been surprisingly productive this year for a back playing alongside Derrick Henry. He’s played over 50% of the offensive snaps in 5 out of 6 games, including 4 in a row, and he’s finished as a top-30 PPR back 4 times this season. With that in mind, he’s definitely in play this week as a flex/RB3 option in PPR leagues, but I’d take a cautious approach here with the Titans’ QB situation in flux. The expectation is that Ryan Tannehill will miss this game, and that Will Levis will get the start with Malik Willis mixing in as well. Willis in his short career has targeted running backs in the passing game at a lower rate than Tannehill, and no running back caught 20+ passes from Will Levis in his two seasons at Kentucky. I’m not sure we can expect Spears’ usual 4-5 targets in this game, and Atlanta is a tough matchup in the run game. The Falcons have allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 5^th in run defense DVOA. Only Rachaad White has caught for 30+ yards against them out of the backfield. There’s still upside for Spears if he can break off a long run or reception, but there’s more risk of a down week than usual for the rookie.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): McLaughlin played just 10 snaps in week 7 as Javonte Williams got a week closer to full strength, but that may have been a result of some rare positive game script for the Broncos. There should be less of that this week against the Chiefs, who are 8-point favorites, and McLaughlin did still manage 46 scrimmage yards on the limited snaps last week. Still, even in a pass-heavy game script McLaughlin will be splitting receiving opportunities with Williams and Samaje Perine, and KC has allowed just one running back to catch more than 2 passes against them, and none to catch for more than 20 receiving yards.  With Mclaughlin’s limited role, you’ll need him to be extremely efficient to produce a fantasy-worthy performance.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Dell finds himself in his usual landing spot this week, squarely on the start/sit borderline, but I’d place him on the wrong side of the cut line with no teams on byes. The Texans have averaged just 30.5 passing attempts per game in their last 4 games, and they’re 3-point favorites this week and shouldn’t be forced to throw much more than that average. They also have quite a few pass catchers to divvy those targets up between. The Panthers aren’t a difficult matchup, ranking just a middling 18^th in pass defense DVOA. For the season, Dell has been targeted on 22.9% of his routes against zone coverage, and the Panthers play zone at the 3^rd-highest rate in the league. This feels like the kind of game where Dell will post something like 5 catches for 60 yards, but there’s so much weekly volatility in how the Texans’ receivers are used that it’s tough to rely on him as a WR3.

WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): DK Metcalf missed week 7’s meeting with the Cardinals, and JSN and Bobo each benefitted by seeing 5+ targets and finding the end zone. Metcalf is practicing this week and should return, but Tyler Lockett popped up on the injury report as well and missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring issue. It’s likely just precautionary, and I’d expect Lockett to play, but it’s worth monitoring. If Lockett misses this week’s game, both JSN and Bobo would get a boost again. If both Metcalf and Lockett play, Bobo would be the receiver most negatively impacted. He was putting up route participation rates in the 25-30% range prior to last week before spiking to 86% with Metcalf out. No matter what receivers are healthy, Seattle is facing arguably the toughest pass defense in the league. The Browns rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. If both starters are healthy, Bobo is off the fantasy radar. He just won’t see enough playing time to produce against this defense. If someone is out, he becomes more of a TD dart throw. I’d lean away from using JSN as well this week, but he’s more viable. The problem for him is that the Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and JSN just isn’t as effective at getting open vs. man coverage. Roto Underworld credits him with a 37% route win rate vs. man coverage compared to 54% vs. zone. I’d expect most of the WR production this week to go to Metcalf and Lockett. Even if Lockett sits, I’d treat JSN as a WR4 option in the tough matchup.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): Mingo was in a route on nearly every Carolina passing dropback in week 6 ahead of their bye, but he earned just 3 targets on 38 Bryce Young pass attempts in that game. We still haven’t seen Mingo reach double-digit PPR points despite playing a full-time role and averaging 6 targets per game. He’s mostly running routes to create space for Adam Thielen. I wouldn’t count on this week being the one where Mingo has a breakout game. The Texans have allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and week 6 was the first game of the Panthers new ‘simplified’ offense for Bryce Young, and Mingo saw his lowest target total of the year in that game. I’m not sure a bounce-back is coming this week. I’d take it as a pleasant surprise if Mingo topped 50 yards for the first time this season.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Wilson disappointed last weekend with just 3 catches for 26 yards in a matchup vs. the zone-heavy Seahawks. This week he faces off with the Ravens, who rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and are in the top-6 in the league in man coverage rate. Wilson has drawn a target on just 5.7% of his matchups vs. man coverage compared with an 18.8% target rate vs. zone. Wilson has caught for 50+ yards in 4 of 7 games this year, and there’s still upside here in a game where Arizona is almost certain to be playing from behind and throwing, but this doesn’t look like the type of matchup where Wilson has thrived this year. With no byes on the schedule, there are likely better options on your roster than Wilson this week.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Hyatt’s increased playing time finally resulted in a big performance last week as he pulled in receptions of 42 and 33 yards and set a season-high with 5 targets. He’s going to continue to operate as the Giants’ WR2 going forward, and he should keep seeing a few deep targets per game as long as Tyrod Taylor is under center, but this week he gets a tough matchup to cash in those opportunities. The Jets are on track to get both starting cornerbacks - Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed - back from injury this week, and for the season they allow the fewest WR points per game and rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. They’ve given up just 5 completions of 25+ yards to opposing wide receivers this year. Hyatt’s deep targets mean he has a chance to put up a solid game on just a few opportunities, but I wouldn’t count on him doing so in this matchup.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): Mims ran more routes than Brandon Johnson for just the 2^nd time all season in week 7. That only amounted to 14 routes and 1 uncatchable target in a game where the Broncos played from ahead for once, but they should be back to their usual trailing game script and throwing a bunch against the Chiefs this weekend. Mims still isn’t playing enough to be counted on for fantasy lineups, especially against a defense that allows the 8^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. He’ll need to make a splash play or two to return value this week, and while deep targets have been there for Mims, he’s recorded negative 7 scrimmage yards in the past 3 weeks combined. There’s more upside here than meets the eye if his increased playing time continues in trailing game script, but he’s still not really worth consideration outside of leagues that give points for return yards.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Musgrave’s season got off to a promising start, but his usage since suffering a week 4 concussion has been less than inspiring. Prior to the concussion, he had run a route on over 80% of the Packers’ dropbacks in each of the first 3 games of the year and tallied over 70 air yards in two of them. In the two full games he’s played since, that route participation rate has been around 70%, and he’s been under 20 air yards in each game. He’s still seeing a healthy number of targets (6 per game in the last two contests), but his 10 catches in those games turned into just 64 yards. The Vikings have been just a middling tight end defense, allowing the 15^th-most points per game to the position, but George Kittle is the only starting tight end to average more than 6 yards per target against them. Musgrave will probably be hard pressed to get to 50 yards this week, which means you’re counting on a TD for him to post a useful fantasy week. He’s probably still a top 15-18 option at the position, but there are safer choices you can use at tight end this week with no teams on byes.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): It looks like Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be able to return this week barring a setback, but even if O’Connell gets the nod, I’d probably look elsewhere in 2-QB formats. The rookie has shown an ability to move the ball in the two games where he’s seen action, but he’s also turned the ball over 4 times in just a game and a quarter. The Lions have been vulnerable to QBs, coughing up the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to the position largely because opposing teams have been chasing them on the scoreboard, but they still rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA and should be playing with an edge after getting trounced by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. This isn’t the week you want to catch the Lions’ defense if you’re a rookie QB. I would treat O’Connell as a bottom-5 starting option this week if by some chance he gets the start.

QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Ryan Tannehill has been battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this week, and head coach Mike Vrabel said that if Tannehill misses this game, Levis will start, but Malik Willis will mix in as well. You don’t need me to tell you that you shouldn’t start either QB of a Titans’ team that ranks 32^nd in pass attempts and 30^th in passing yards if 2 QBs are splitting the job. The Falcons rank just 29^th in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not enough for me to consider using Levis in his first NFL action. He’s worth monitoring in case he shows out, but he shouldn’t be doing it from in your lineup.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): Charbonnet’s ancillary role in this offense behind Kenneth Walker III has value in weeks where Seattle can play from ahead against bad run defenses. This isn’t one of those weeks. Seattle is favored by a field goal against Cleveland this weekend, but the Browns rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed just one running back to reach double-digit fantasy points against them on fewer than 14 touches. Charbs hasn’t logged more than 10 touches in any game this season. With no teams on byes, he’s in the RB4/RB5 range this week. This changes if Kenneth Walker is unable to play on Sunday. Walker, like teammate Tyler Lockett, popped up on the injury report as a DNP (did not practice) on Wednesday. If Walker sits, Charbonnet catapults up to the range of a low-end RB2 even in a tough matchup.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Miller logged just 3 offensive snaps and didn’t record a single touch last week with Jamaal Williams back from injury against the Jaguars. Williams didn’t play a ton either as Alvin Kamara dominated the backfield work. Head Coach Dennis Allen said that the plan going forward is to get Miller and Williams more involved and balance out those touches more, but I don’t know how you can rely on a running back who has touched the ball more than 3 times just once in the last 4 games, even when he’s facing a defense that allows the 6^th-most RB points per game. The one game in that span with extended work for Kendre was a 34-0 drubbing of the Patriots. I don’t expect that kind of lopsided game this week, where the Saints are 1-point underdogs to the Colts.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Evans seemed to be in line for a significant workload last weekend after both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers were placed on IR, but instead the Rams promoted Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson off the street and let that duo handle all of the running back reps. Evans wasn’t on the field for a single offensive snap, and I don’t see that changing much this week.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Bigsby has totaled just 13 carries and 2 targets in the last 5 games combined. He continues to be off the fantasy radar unless something happens to Travis Etienne.

RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): The Ravens were up 28-0 by the middle of the 2^nd quarter last weekend, and Mitchell still only managed to play two snaps and touched the ball just once. If he’s not going to be involved even in garbage time, there’s no reason to roster him.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Tucker hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 3. He’s limited to just special teams now.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Palmer set a new season-high with 32 routes run last week against Atlanta, but he was targeted just twice, making his 6-target game in week 6 look more like an aberration than a sign of an increasing role. The Bucs’ targets will continue to be funneled to Evans & Godwin, and Palmer will continue to battle with Cade Otton, Deven Tompkins, and Rachaad White for what’s left over. I wouldn’t expect a big target total this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR3.

WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Johnston set a season-high last week for receiving yards with just 20. He’s running a sizeable number of routes, but he hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this season. He was outproduced in fantasy points last week by rookie teammate Derius Davis, who ran all of 5 routes against the Chiefs. At some point, the Chargers are going to actually get Johnston more involved, and maybe it happens this week against a bad Bears’ defense, but I’d be much more willing to live with it if he had a blow-up game from my bench than if he had another 2–3-point game from in my lineup. Davis just isn’t playing enough snaps to be worth consideration.

WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Scott was in a route on nearly 70% of the Bears’ dropbacks in week 7 (a season-high), but that turned into just 2 catches for 19 yards on 3 targets. He also added 14 rushing yards as a bonus, but with Bagent at QB, the Bears’ passing game likely won’t be explosive enough for an ancillary receiver like Scott to be fantasy-relevant. I liked his upside last week as a deep threat against a bad Raiders’ defense but won’t go back to that well against a bad Chargers’ defense given Bagent’s 2-yard aDOT last weekend. If Bagent isn’t going to push the ball down the field, Scott isn’t going to provide fantasy value.

WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Tucker was over a 50% route participation rate for the 2^nd game in a row last week, but he didn’t see the same deep targets he did in week 6. Tucker will always be fighting for the scraps left over by Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs, so if those few targets he sees are short ones, there’s not a lot of fantasy value there. His aDOT prior to week 7 was 27 yards. His aDOT in week 7 was just 7.3 yards. Maybe the long targets return with Jimmy Garoppolo likely back under center, but both of Tucker’s multi-target games have occurred while Jimmy G was sidelined with injury.  

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Bagent acquitted himself well in his first NFL start, executing a conservative game plan well in an impressive victory over the Raiders. He completed over 70% of his passes, but his average throw traveled just 2 yards downfield, and he averaged a meager 5.6 yards per attempt. I’d expect a similar gameplan this week, but this is a great matchup for any QB. The Bears are 8.5-point underdogs this week, so Bagent likely won’t get away with throwing fewer than 30 passes again, and the Chargers have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA. The ceiling here isn’t high even in this great matchup, but don’t be shocked if Bagent dinks and dunks his way to a low-end QB2 finish for the week. 5 out of the 6 QBs to face the Chargers this year have topped 20 fantasy points.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Reed’s usage hasn’t quite been what we’d hope for since Christian Watson’s return to the lineup. Reed averaged 6.3 targets and 50 yards per game in the first 4 games of the year (including week 4 when Watson played limited snaps in his first game back), but he’s averaged just 3 targets and 14 yards in the two games since, and logged route participation rates below 60% in both games. That kind of workload means he’s probably not a starting option in most leagues, but he does get a decent matchup this week. The Vikings have allowed the 7^th-most receiver points per game, and they’ve allowed the 8^th-most receiving yards and 2^nd-most yards after the catch to opposing slot receivers. When you pair that with Reed’s usage in scoring range (he’s got 6 of the team’s 14 targets within 10 yards of the end zone), there’s some sneaky upside here in deep leagues or in DFS lineups.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 8: @Mia.): The return of JuJu Smith-Schuster from the concussion protocol is enough to prevent me from giving a full-throated endorsement of Douglas for this week, but at some point, the Patriots have got to realize what they have here. Douglas is consistently earning targets when he’s on the field (25% target per route run rate), and he leads the receiver group in yards per target and yards per route run. The Patriots just have to keep giving him routes. If he plays the same role he did last week (71% route participation rate) against a Miami defense that allows the 9^th-most WR points per game, he’s a viable WR4/5 option. I don’t trust that will happen with JuJu back, but Douglas shouldn’t be sitting on the waiver wire in deeper leagues. He’s just 5% rostered on Sleeper.

WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 8: @SF): Iosivas isn’t an option for this week, but now would be a good time to scoop him off your league waiver wire in dynasty leagues if he’s still available. The Bengals are coming off a bye week, so most folks aren’t rushing to add the Bengals’ depth guys this week, but Iosivas has sneakily started to see his playing time increase, and he’s impressed in his limited opportunities. He was an un-thrown coach’s challenge flag away from a dazzling toe-tap catch in week 5 and followed that up with his first career TD in week 6 ahead of the bye week. He’s still only run 21 routes in the last two games, but it seems the Bengals may be grooming him to be the Tee Higgins replacement in 2024. He’s a much better perimeter option than Trenton Irwin, Tyler Boyd, or Charlie Jones, and he may have a few spike game opportunities this season given Higgins’ issues with staying on the field in recent seasons. Higgins has left games early with an injury 4 times since the start of last season and was inactive for another, and he’s currently battling a rib injury that he said may bother him all season. With that said, anything you get from Iosivas this year should be seen as a bonus. This is a dynasty stash with 2024 in mind.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Mayer’s usage took a step backward last weekend after his breakout game in week 6. He’s still playing ahead of Austin Hooper as the Raiders’ lead tight end, but a 52% route participation rate isn’t what you’re looking for from a TE1. That doesn’t mean he can’t have a useful fantasy day in week 8. The Lions have allowed the 2^nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and have allowed 5 different tight ends to pull in at least 4 receptions against them. That overall points per game number is skewed a bit by the big game from Mark Andrews last weekend, but I’d still expect a handful of targets to go Mayer’s way. He’s a passable fill-in this week if you’re in a pinch at the position, and he could be a fun play in showdown DFS contests for Monday Night Football.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.