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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Months of anticipation have finally brought us to the precipice of another NFL season. Your fantasy drafts are done, and now it’s time to start setting weekly lineups and watch the fantasy points roll in. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, my task each week is to help you figure out what to do with the players that are hardest to predict in fantasy – the rookies. If you don’t spend your summer grinding college film or closely monitoring NFL training camp reports, you might struggle to know what to expect from the rookies you’ve drafted on a weekly basis. Luckily, I’m here to help.

Each week I’ll group the fantasy-relevant rookies into 5 categories – The rookies you know you should start, the rookies you know you should sit, the borderline rookies I’d lean toward starting, the borderline rookies I’d lean toward sitting, and some deep league sleepers, stashes, and cheap DFS options. For each player, I'll provide some additional stats or context to help you make the decision that works best for your team. I can’t stress enough that you should read the specifics and not just what header a player is listed under, and then apply it to your own roster and league settings before making your own decision of who to start. I’m not here to tell you what to do. I’m here to give you info to help you decide what to do for yourself.

For week 1, this task is especially difficult. I try to be more conservative with rookies early in the season until we have some NFL stats and usage data to judge them by, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t use any rookies this weekend. We can still lean on preseason usage and 2022 defensive stats of their opponents to help determine which rookies are usable this weekend. Defenses change from year to year, so take the defensive rankings with a grain of salt, but it’s unlikely that a team that was awful against the run a year ago will suddenly be good against it this year unless they made major changes.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

That’s enough preamble for this week. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): You’re not sitting your first-round pick in week 1. The Panthers were a middling run defense last year (ranked 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA), but no team was more efficient running the football than the Atlanta Falcons last season, and Bijan is an upgrade over every back who toted the rock for them in ’22. Week one should be his coming out party in a game where the Falcons are 3.5-point favorites. Fire him up with confidence.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 1: @KC): Like Bijan above, you drafted Gibbs too high to sit him in week one. With Jameson Williams sidelined for the first 6 weeks of the season, the Lions’ running backs will likely see even more receiving work than usual early in the season. The Detroit backfield had a 21% target share last season, and no team in the league allowed more running back catches per game in ‘22 than the Chiefs. Gibbs is a great bet for 5+ catches in his debut, and if the Lions can keep this game competitive, he’s got top-10 running back upside this week, especially in PPR formats.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Before I dive in on Young, I want to clarify that I’d lean towards starting the Panthers’ rookie signal caller in Superflex leagues only. In 1-QB leagues, I’d leave him on the bench this week. The matchup is good but not great (Atlanta allowed the 13^th-most QB points in 2022), and Carolina is short-handed at wide receiver this week with DJ Chark likely out, and both Terrace Marshall and Adam Thielen limited in practice this week by injury. If you’re looking for reasons to be confident in Young this week, look no further than the Falcons’ blitz rates and pressure rates from last season. The Falcons had the 4^th-lowest blitz rate in the league and were dead last in QB pressure rate. They changed defensive coordinators this offseason, bringing in Ryan Nielsen from the Saints, but the Saints had the 6^th-lowest blitz rate and 4^th-lowest pressure rate in ’22. If Bryce has time in the pocket to pick apart the Falcons’ defense, I like his chances of turning in a mid-range QB2 performance in his debut.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. LAR): It may be hard to make room in your lineup for Charbonnet this week given that there are no byes, and you probably didn’t draft him as a starter, but he’s got a great opportunity to make a splash in week 1 if you’re in deeper leagues or need a stand-in for Alvin Kamara or JT this week. The Rams stripped down their defense around Aaron Donald, and they’re going to struggle to slow down most competent offenses. The Seahawks certainly have a competent offense (they ranked 9^th in points scored and 13^th in total yards in ’22), and they may look to ease Kenneth Walker III in as he comes back from a preseason groin injury. Walker should be able to play in week 1, but Charbonnet will likely get more chances to spell him than you’d expect, especially if the Seahawks are able to pull away on the scoreboard. Seattle is a 5-point favorite, but I think this could be more lopsided than that. 15+ touches against a bad defense isn’t out of the question for Charbs in week 1.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. TB): The Vikings aren’t playing the same games with Addison that they did with Justin Jefferson in his rookie year. There’s no pretense about Addison sitting to start the year behind a veteran like Bisi Johnson. Addison sat out the entire preseason along with the rest of the starters and should be locked in as the WR2 to open the season. The Vikings are a team that figures to throw the ball a lot this season, and the Buccaneers allowed the 8^th-most PPR points per game to wide receivers last year. There’s an element of the unknown here since we haven’t seen the Vikings’ first-string offense at all this preseason, but I like Addison and an upside WR3/flex option this week. The Vikings are tied for the 4^th-highest implied point total this week in Vegas odds.

WR Marvin Mims, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. LV): Mims was an intriguing late pick in drafts coming into the preseason, but injuries to Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy have made him the opening day WR2 in what should be a much-improved offense under Sean Payton. The Raiders ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA in 2022, and while they brought in Marcus Peters to improve the secondary, Mims should mostly avoid his coverage. Courtland Sutton figures to be the top target earner in week 1, but things are wide open beyond that in this passing game. 6+ targets is very possible for Mims, and he’s an upside WR4 this week in a good matchup.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Richardson gets the starting nod for week 1 and his expected rushing output will give him top-12 upside every single week, but I would be cautious with him in his NFL debut. We’ve seen 8 prominent mobile QBs make their first NFL start in the last 5 years (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Desmond Ridder, and Malik Willis). None of them have finished as a top-10 QB in their first start. Kyler finished as QB11, Hurts as QB12, and Lamar as QB13, and none of the others finished higher than QB20. I like Richardson’s chances to post double-digit rushing attempts in this game against a Jacksonville defense that allowed the 3^rd-most QB rush yards per game last year, but I just don’t know that he has the ceiling to outweigh the potential downside in 1-QB formats this week. You should absolutely be starting him in Superflex leagues, but I’d look for safer options in 1-QB formats.

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 1: @Bal.): Stroud gets the starting nod for week 1, but the preseason showed us that he’s still got some work to do before he should be plugged into lineups. The Ravens were just a middling QB defense last season (14^th-fewest QB points allowed in ’22), but they ranked 5^th in the league in sacks last season and should have no problem getting after Stroud with the Texans missing starting tackle Tytus Howard. You might not have better options in Superflex leagues, but I’d lean towards starting a different QB2 ahead of him if you can.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 1: @Ind.): Bigsby should open the season in a backfield committee with Travis Etienne, but he’s on the wrong side of the committee. Etienne handled two-thirds of the short down & distance snaps with the first-team offense and ran more than 3 times as many receiving routes as Bigsby this preseason. Goal line work and receiving work are the high-value touches for fantasy, and those should go to Etienne at least early on this season. The Colts would be a favorable matchup if we knew Bigsby would get significant usage (they allowed the 8^th-most PPR points to running backs last season), but as the Jaguars’ clear RB2, I’d keep him sidelined this week.

RB Evan Hull, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Hull may have some appeal to you this week if you have him in deeper leagues. The Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss as they take on the Jaguars, leaving just Deon Jackson and Hull in the backfield. I expect the Colts will elevate Jake Funk from the practice squad to serve as the RB3, but Jackson and Hull should see the bulk of the work. If we knew for sure that Jackson would handle the early-down work and Hull would handle the passing-down work, I’d like Hull a bit more in week 1 - the Colts are 5-point underdogs who should have to throw more than they want to, and the Jaguars allowed the 2^nd-most RB catches per game last year – but I don’t think the workload split will be that clean. In the team’s final preseason game, Jackson and Hull both worked full drives while the first team offense was in the game, with Jackson playing 2 or 3 drives for every 1 that Hull played. That kind of workload isn’t going to get him to fantasy relevance in week 1. Take a wait-and-see approach and keep him in mind for week 2 vs. the Texans if his usage looks good this week and Moss remains out.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): There’s a lot of excitement this season about the new-look Ravens’ offense under Todd Monken. They should throw the ball significantly more than they have in years past, but I’m not sure they’ll need to throw a ton in week 1. The Ravens are 10-point favorites in this game, and the Texans were significantly better at defending the pass than the run last season. The defensive scheme could look a lot different this year under new head coach DeMeco Ryans. Former coach Lovie Smith is one of the godfathers of the Tampa-2 defense. Ryans figures to call more cover-3 and cover-4 and be more aggressive with blitzing. The Texans had the third-lowest blitz rate in the league last year. Those new coverage schemes could open up the short middle of the field for Zay to work some magic, but I’d still prefer to wait until we see how targets are distributed in this offense before getting Flowers into any lineups, especially since game script should keep the Ravens running the ball this week.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. LAR): JSN suffered a wrist injury in camp that made it look like he might be sidelined for the first game or two of the season, but he returned to practice this week and has a very real chance of playing in the opener Sunday. If he’s able to go, I’d expect that the Seahawks don’t immediately throw him into a full workload after he got such limited practice time in camp. If he draws even a handful of targets in the opener, I’d see that as a win. Smith-Njigba is eventually going to make his presence felt in this offense, but I wouldn’t trust him to do it in week 1, even in a plus matchup against a Rams defense that allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game last year and got substantially worse in the offseason.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Mingo enters week 1 as the Panthers’ WR2 behind Adam Thielen if preseason usage is to be trusted. Mingo was in a route on 94% of Bryce Young’s preseason dropbacks, and he earned a 20% target rate on those routes. What concerns me is that only 50% of those targets were catchable. He and Bryce were just not fully on the same page. Mingo’s got a little extra upside this week with the rest of the WR group battling injuries, but I wouldn’t treat him as anything more than a WR4 this week who is a better play in non-PPR and half-PPR formats rather than full PPR. That WR4 designation would only apply if Adam Thielen sits this one out. I’d slide Mingo lower if Thielen is able to play. The former Viking had a 35% target share from Young in the preseason, and all those targets were catchable.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Johnston has a ton of potential this year in what should be a high-powered, high-volume Chargers passing game, but that potential will likely wait a few weeks to shine through. The Chargers sat their starters in the final preseason game, and at wide receiver that meant Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joshua Palmer. Johnston was on the field for that game, signaling that he’s not yet a starter in this offense. The talent will eventually win out and he’ll leapfrog Palmer for the WR3 role, but it may take a few weeks for that to happen. For now, you should leave Johnston parked on your bench.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 1: @Was.): Wilson will open the season as the WR2 for the Cardinals behind Marquise Brown, but this is not an offense that you want to target for fantasy lineups. Whether it’s Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune under center, this team figures to struggle badly on offense. They have the lowest implied point total of week 1 at just 15.5 points. Wilson should get plenty of playing time and a healthy number of targets this season, but he’ll likely be a fringe flex play until Kyler Murray returns (IF Kyler Murray returns). In week 1, Wilson faces a Washington defense that allowed the 9^th-fewest PPR points to wide receivers lined up out wide in 2022.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Kincaid has been one of the more polarizing players in this year’s draft class. On the one hand, the Bills already have a pretty solid young tight end in Dawson Knox and rookie tight ends rarely ever produce in fantasy. On the other hand, all reports out of camp are that Kincaid will be used all over the formation and that he’s been a perfect fit in the offense and has a nice rapport with Josh Allen. I think Kincaid is going to be a fringe TE1 as a rookie and wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to start him this week, but I don’t love this matchup for him. The Jets ranked 4^th in pass defense DVOA last season and returned pretty much everyone, and while they were worse against tight ends last year than against wide receivers, they were mostly susceptible to in-line tight ends, which is the role Dawson Knox will play most often. Don’t be surprised if Knox finds the end zone and outscores Kincaid on Monday night.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Clayton Tune, ARI (Wk. 1: @Was.): Tune has a chance to be the starter in week 1 (Jonathan Gannon has declined to name a starter in hopes of keeping some sort of strategic advantage), but even if he gets the nod, you shouldn’t consider starting Tune unless forced to. The Commanders ranked 13^th in pass defense DVOA, and were 10^th in QB pressure rate in 2022, and there’s a chance they get Chase Young back for the opener. The Cardinals look like one of the worst teams in the league and have an implied point total of just 15.5 points in this game. Tune is probably a bottom-3 starting option among all starting QBs if he gets the start in week 1.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. GB): Johnson will have a ton of upside as the season progresses in what should be a very run-heavy offense for Chicago, but Khalil Herbert has entrenched himself as the RB1 on this team to open the season after seeing two-thirds of the team rushing attempts with the first team offense this preseason. Roschon needs to work his way into a bigger role before you can consider him in lineups.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 1: @NO): Spears has earned the Titans’ RB2 job in training camp and is electric with the ball in hands, but the problem is that his RB2 spot is behind RB1 Derrick Henry, who dominates backfield touches in Tennessee. In the games he played, Henry handled 89% of the running back rushing attempts and 51% of the running back targets for the Titans in 2022. Maybe that changes since Spears is an upgrade over Hassan Haskins, Dontrell Hilliard, and Julius Chestnut, but the likeliest place for Spears to contribute is in the passing game, and the Saints allowed the 5^th-fewest running back receiving yards in 2022. Keep Tyjae benched for week one.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Miller is battling a hamstring injury that could keep him sidelined in week 1. Even if he plays, I’d expect him to function as the clear RB2 behind Jamaal Williams. It’s a huge blow for Miller, who likely loses out on an opportunity to make an impression while Alvin Kamara is suspended.

RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Buf.): The addition of Dalvin Cook has relegated Abanikanda to RB3 on this team. There was hope that the rookie would get some work in the early part of the season as Breece Hall works his way back to full strength, but with Cook on board he’ll be limited to scraps during that period, and even less work as the season wears on and Breece hits 100%. He’ll likely need an injury ahead of him to be fantasy relevant.

RB Chase Brown, CIN (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Brown struggled to make any movement up the Bengals’ depth chart this preseason. He may open the season behind all of Joe Mixon, Trayveon Williams, and Chris Evans. He should be on the waiver wire in any non-dynasty leagues.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 1: @Sea.): Evans looks likely to open the season as the Rams’ RB3 behind Cam Akers and Kyren Williams. There’s no need to consider him this week.

RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): Rodriguez is the RB3 in Washington behind Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. His skill-set mirrors Robinson pretty well, so he may get some run if anything were to happen to B-Rob, but for now, he’s an afterthought in this offense.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Downs opens the season as the Colts’ WR3, but this figures to be a run-first offense with a potentially narrow target tree. Downs saw just a 7% target share with the first-team offense in the preseason. Jacksonville did allow the 6^th-most PPR points to slot wide receivers last season, but I wouldn’t count on a big debut from Downs even in this matchup. He may develop into a valuable PPR receiver later in the season, but there could be some growing pains for this offense early on.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 1: @Min.): Palmer enters the season as the WR3 for the Bucs, but he may be as low as 5^th in line for targets in this offense that figures to play slower and be more balanced than it was a year ago. They could throw the ball nearly 200 fewer times than they did last year, and it wouldn’t be shocking. The Vikings are a burnable defense, but Palmer likely won’t see enough week 1 opportunities to make a fantasy impact.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): The Giants’ depth chart at WR is going to be fluid this year, but I expect it’ll take time for Hyatt to develop into anything more than a situational deep threat. The Cowboys’ secondary has a reputation for being aggressive and giving up big plays when they get burned by it, but that reputation is largely a remnant from 2021. The Cowboys allowed 22 completions of 35+ yards in 2021, but cut that number nearly in half to 13 in 2022 while ranking 3^rd in pass defense DVOA. Hyatt’s chances at cashing in a deep ball in week 1 on limited snaps aren’t high.

WRs Xavier Hutchinson & Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 1: @Bal.): The WR depth chart is fluid in Houston, and Hutchinson & Dell both impressed in camp and in the preseason, but the Texans will open the season with Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods as starters in 3-WR sets. If you have the rookies or John Metchie rostered, the hope is that they make the most of limited opportunities early on and earn a bigger role as the season progresses.

WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): Tillman has flashed in camp, but he’ll undoubtedly open the season as no better than the team’s WR4 behind Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Elijah Moore.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Rice will start his career in Kansas City in a similar place on the depth chart to where Skyy Moore started his a year ago – as a sub package player who will only see a handful of snaps each week. Moore didn’t reach 50% of the snaps in any game last year, and he reached double-digit PPR points just once all season. Rice has even more competition for playing time than Moore had last year. 

WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): Boutte did well just to make the Patriots opening 53-man roster, but getting playing time will be another challenge altogether. Kayshon may have a sliver of opportunity with Tyquan Thornton opening the season on IR, but the starting WRs in 3-wide sets for week 1 figures to be DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kendrick Bourne. Boutte will have to work his way up the depth chart.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 1: @Den.): Mayer should take the starting TE job soon in Vegas, but preseason usage says that Austin Hooper will open the season as the starter. There are too many quality TE options available for week 1 to consider throwing a dart at Mayer when we don’t know how much he’ll actually play.

TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 1: vs. SF): You don’t need me to tell you that Washington is playing behind Pat Freiermuth in this offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Steelers try to work the rookie onto the field in goal line situations since he’s a good blocker and a match-up nightmare at 6’7”, but that’ll make him no more than a weekly TD dart throw unless something happens to Muth.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Devon Achane, MIA (Wk. 1: @LAC): Achane’s prospects for week 1 got an unexpected boost when Jeff Wilson Jr. was placed on IR last week. There’s still some uncertainty about his workload with Raheem Mostert and Salvon Ahmed still around, but this looks like a great opportunity for the speedy Achane to make a splash in his debut. The Chargers have ranked in the bottom-6 in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry allowed in each of the last 2 seasons, and they return 6 of their starting front 7 from a year ago and promoted from within for their new defensive coordinator. The one new addition up front, Eric Kendricks, should help with an 81.1 run defense grade from PFF, but this should still be a burnable run defense. The Chargers allowed 12.2% of rushing attempts against them last year to go for 10+ yards. Who better to punish that defense than Achane, who runs a 4.32 second 40-yard dash? There is sneaky upside here in deep leagues and DFS formats.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 1: @Min.): Tucker looks poised to enter the season as the Bucs RB2 behind Rachaad White, and if White doesn’t improve on his abysmal efficiency numbers from last season, we could slowly see Tucker evolve from change-of-pace back into the starter as the season wears on. I wouldn’t plug him in for the opener, but he’s a great bench stash if you have room for him on your roster. He could be a workhorse back by the back half of the season that you can acquire for free right now.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. LAR): McLaughlin hasn’t been talked about a ton this preseason, but he’s notable as an undrafted free agent who made the Broncos opening roster. McLaughlin is undersized at 5’7”, 187 lbs., but he’s an explosive athlete who rushed for nearly 1,600 yards at Youngstown State last year, and the Broncos’ offense may have a fantasy relevant role for him.  Head coach Sean Payton’s offenses have utilized what he calls a ‘Joker’ role that gets heavily used in the passing game. Payton describes it as “either a running back or tight end with exceptional ball skills, and then you can work matchups.” He’s used running backs Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara all in that role with great success in the past. He’s mentioned McLaughlin and tight end Greg Dulcich as candidates for the role this year. McLaughlin is nothing more than a stash in deeper leagues right now (especially dynasty leagues), but there’s a chance he has a meaningful role as a receiving back this year, and even an outside shot that he supplants Samaje Perine for the RB2 role behind Javonte Williams.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 1: @Sea.): It’s sounding like a long shot that Cooper Kupp will suit up for week 1 at this point. If Kupp sits out, Nacua seems like a lock to start in 3-WR sets along with Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell. The most important detail in determining which WR in this offense you want to start is pre-snap alignment. Which guy is going to play the slot? The Seahawks allowed just 89 PPR points all season in 2022 to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter. No other team allowed fewer than 140. The Seahawks allowed 327 PPR points to receivers lined up in the slot. Typically, Cooper Kupp is the Rams’ slot WR. Van Jefferson played just 17.5% of his snaps from the slot in 2022, and the diminutive Atwell played just 22.7% of his snaps there. Pay attention to reports this week to see if you can discern who will line up in the slot most often. My guess would be Atwell, but if it turns out to be Nacua, the rookie could have big upside in his debut for deeper PPR leagues. 

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 1: @Chi.): Reed could have a sizable week one role for the Packers if Romeo Doubs misses the opener. Reed is already set to open the season as the Packers’ WR3, but he’d be elevated to WR2 for this game if Doubs misses. We still don’t really know what the target distribution will look like here, but the Bears ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA last season despite limiting tight ends to the 4^th-fewest PPR points. WRs and RBs carved them up last season in the passing game. The addition of Tremaine Edmunds and his 88.1 PFF coverage grade should help them slow down the running backs, but it should open things up for Reed and Christian Watson to have a nice week 1. Reed could draw 6+ targets on Sunday.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 1: @KC): LaPorta dominated first team TE reps throughout the preseason, and he enters week 1 as the clear cut starting tight. The Lions are without game-breaking wide receiver Jameson Williams for the first 6 weeks of the season so LaPorta might be as high as 3^rd or 4^th in the target pecking order to open the season. The Lions are likely to be chasing points on Thursday night as 4.5-point underdogs to the defending champs, so game script should lead to a solid amount of passing volume. LaPorta should be in line for 5+ targets in the opener against a defense that allowed 9 tight end touchdowns last season. He’s a good option for DFS lineups this week and could be a valuable fill-in if your starter is Travis Kelce or you’re stuck without a top-10 tight end.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 1: @Chi.): I mention Musgrave here as more of a stash than an immediate starter, but he’s going to play a meaningful role in this offense from day one. Jordan Love had 37 dropbacks in the preseason, and Musgrave was in a route on 84% of them and earned a 22% target share. Musgrave could be start-able in fantasy leagues sooner rather than later, but I don’t love his week one matchup – as I mentioned above the Bears allowed the 4^th-fewest TE PPR points last season. Take a wait-and-see approach before inserting Musgrave into lineups.

That’s all I’ve got for week 1. Hopefully, it helps you pull out a victory in your season opener. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are already banged up entering week 1 and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was one of those NFL weeks that reminds us just how little we actually know about this game. Raise your hand if you expected Desmond Ridder and CJ Stroud to have more receptions last weekend than Tee Higgins and Drake London (Put your hands down, no you didn’t). Some things did go as planned, like the Vikings throwing 40+ times and Jordan Addison benefitting as a result, and Zay Flowers being a top target in the Ravens’ passing game, but many of the other top rookies saw smaller week 1 roles than we were hoping for.

Top running backs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs both looked excellent in their debuts, but both saw lower usage than we’d like. Bijan finished the week as an RB1, but he ceded 15 carries and 2 goal-line TDs to Tyler Allgeier. Gibbs would’ve finished as a fringe RB1 as well if he hadn’t tripped over his own feet on a red zone carry that should’ve gone for a score, but he was on the field for just 19 offensive snaps while David Montgomery played 55.

Other rookie top performers of the week included Puka Nacua and Anthony Richardson. Nacua had a massive debut with 10 catches for 119 yards on 15 targets as the Rams played without Cooper Kupp. The Rams’ strong overall performance was one of the more surprising storylines of the opening weekend. Fantasy players who took the plunge on Anthony Richardson as a QB1 look like they’re going to be handsomely rewarded this season. The Colts let Richardson throw the ball 37 times in week 1 while he also rushed for 40 yards and a TD. It’s hard to lean on the running game when your top back finishes with 14 yards on 13 carries. Richardson is going to be asked to do it all while JT sits out, and in week one that meant high-end QB1 production.

Rookie tight ends Luke Musgrave and Sam LaPorta played well in their openers, but neither cracked double-digit fantasy points. LaPorta was still able to finish as a TE1 for the week as tight end scoring was abysmal league wide.

My biggest tip after week 1 is this – Don’t let a 1-week sample cause you to completely abandon your priors. You should use the info from week 1 to make decisions going forward, but don’t overreact to it. Don’t drop players like Tee Higgins or Drake London after one bad game. There are ebbs and flows in fantasy. There will be better weeks for those guys. This is especially true for the rookies that were quiet in week 1. Rarely do we see rookies dominate right out of the gate, but they’ll often help you a ton in the back half of the season.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 2…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Richardson finished his first NFL week as the fantasy QB4, and there were a lot of numbers beyond that to like as well. Richardson is inexperienced as a passer with fewer than 400 career pass attempts in college, so it’s a great sign that Shane Steichen trusted him to drop back to pass 45 times in week one (including 4 sacks and 4 scrambles). The Colts are going to struggle to run the football without Jonathan Taylor, so passing volume is going to be much higher for this offense than any of us expected coming in. That passing volume paired with huge rushing upside (he handled 27% of the Colts’ designed rushes in week 1) means Richardson could be a top-5 QB all year. He’s an every-week fantasy starter until further notice.

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 2: vs. GB): Bijan didn’t play the dominant workhorse role we were hoping for in week 1. He was on the field for 65% of the offensive snaps but handled just 38% of the rushing attempts as Tyler Allgeier had the bigger rushing workload and scored a pair of short TDs. Luckily for Bijan and for us, he was a focal point in the passing game, earning a 35% target share and scoring a receiving TD en route to a PPR RB7 finish for the week. The TD reception was especially impressive, showing off Bijan’s elusiveness after the catch. This offense is going to be run-heavy enough to make both Robinson and Allgeier viable fantasy starters every week, even if it’s not quite the usage we envisioned for Robinson. In week 2 this backfield takes on a Green Bay defense that allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game in 2022 and allowed the 5^th-most points to the position in week 1. The Bears’ backfield racked up 143 scrimmage yards, 11 receptions, and a TD against the Packers last Sunday. Bijan should be locked into starting lineups again in week 2.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Gibbs usage in week 1 was far from what we were hoping for. He played just 19 snaps compared to 55 for David Montgomery, but he was explosive with his opportunities and should see his role grow as the season goes on. This week’s opponent, the Seahawks, allowed the 4^th-most running back points last season, and coughed up 3 TDs to Cam Akers and Kyren Williams in week 1. The Lions open the week with the 3^rd-highest implied point total in the league, so this is an offense that you want to target for lineups. I’m less confident in Gibbs as an auto-start given his week 1 usage, but Dan Campbell emphatically said on Thursday that Gibbs is going to get more touches going forward, and this is a matchup where he should be able to finish as an RB2 even if that usage doesn’t improve much.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Game one of the Todd Monken era in Baltimore didn’t go according to plan with just 22 passing attempts for Lamar Jackson, but that didn’t stop Flowers from piling up 9-78 on 10 targets. The 50% target share for Flowers isn’t going to continue when Mark Andrews returns (likely this week), but the Ravens will have to throw much more this week to keep pace with the Bengals. Cincy’s passing game was awful last weekend, but they should get back on track against a banged-up Baltimore secondary that will be missing Marcus Williams and probably Marlon Humphrey as well. This game has shootout potential, and I’d look for the Ravens to throw the ball 35+ times this week, and for them to continue to find ways to get the ball into Flowers’ hands. Flowers was Lamar’s first read often last Sunday, and that should continue in week 2. I’d expect something like 8+ targets this weekend and would be firing Flowers up as a PPR WR3.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. SF): Nacua started to get some hype late last week when it became apparent that Cooper Kupp would be out for the opener, but I don’t think any of us expected the WR9 finish he posted in a surprising upset win over Seattle. Matt Stafford looked much closer to the guy who led the Rams to a Super Bowl two years ago, and Nacua and teammate Tutu Atwell were big beneficiaries of Stafford’s bounce back. Nacua led the team with a 39% target share and 35% air yardage share, and he seems to be the player who has stepped into Cooper Kupp’s target hog role while the star is on injured reserve. The matchup this week looks much tougher at first glance, but the 49ers allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game in 2022 and the 14^th-most in week 1. I wouldn’t go into this game expecting another top-10 finish for the rookie, but he should be a solid WR3 play.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Addison had a strong NFL debut, posting 4 catches, 61 yards, and a touchdown on 6 targets vs the Bucs last weekend. The 6 targets accounted for just a 13.6% target share, but the Vikings figure to be one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league and Addison should see 6+ targets more weeks than not. The Vikings should be even more inclined to throw than usual this week as 6-point underdogs, and the Eagles will be missing starting corner James Bradberry and just gave up over 300 passing yards to Mac Jones and the Patriots last weekend. This could be a TJ Hockenson week with the Vikings o-line banged up and Kirk Cousins needing to get the ball out quickly, but there should still be plenty of volume for Addison to have a WR3 week.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): LaPorta didn’t finish with a crooked stat line in week 1, but he was in a route for 72% of the Lions’ dropbacks and still finished the week as the PPR TE8. This week he faces a Seattle defense that was absolutely shredded by tight ends in 2022, allowing a dozen or more PPR points to the position 9 times, including 39.9 points to TJ Hockenson playing in this Lions’ offense. The Seahawks didn’t allow a 12-point scorer in week 1 this year, but they did allow the 2^nd-most TE receiving yards of any team in the opening week, coughing up 70 combined yards to Tyler Higbee and Brycen Hopkins on 14 yards per target. This is a premium matchup for tight ends, and LaPorta should be primed to take advantage of it as the full-time TE1 in Detroit. There are elite TEs who should be back in action this week, but I still like LaPorta’s chances to duplicate his top-8 finish from a week ago.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Musgrave’s preseason usage carried over to week 1 as he logged an 80% route participation rate and a 25% air yard share in week 1 against the Bears. He gets a favorable matchup in week 2 against an Atlanta defense that allowed the 3^rd-most tight end points in the league last year and surrendered a 5-41-1 line to Hayden Hurst last Sunday, good for a TE2 finish on the week. Green Bay’s pass catching group should get a little more crowded this week with the likely return of Christian Watson, but I expect more than the 27 passing attempts we saw from the Packers last week. The TE options after the elite guys remain uninspiring, so give me the freak athlete (Musgrave boasts a 9.78 out of 10 Relative Athletic Score) who has a full-time role and a good matchup. I like Musgrave this week if you’re searching for a streaming tight end.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Stroud still has some developing to do before he’s a trustworthy weekly option, but the Texans are content to let him drop back and throw the ball a lot. Stroud attempted 44 passes in week 1 and could push for 40 attempts again this week. He could have some extra time to throw this week – the Colts’ defense had the lowest blitz rate and 4^th-lowest pressure rate in week 1 – but their game plan might look a little different facing off with a rookie QB rather than Trevor Lawrence. The high passing volume makes Stroud a viable QB2 option in superflex leagues, but he’s still got a low floor and I’d recommend playing a safer QB2 candidate if you can.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Johnson had a busy week 1 if you judge by the stat sheet alone. He led the backfield in snaps, tied for the team lead in targets, and found the end zone in the opener, but the vast majority of that happened in the 4^th quarter when the Bears were down by 3 scores. Roschon’s performance was promising, and his role will increase if he keeps playing well, but you shouldn’t overreact to his week 1 totals. Khalil Herbert remains the Bears’ RB1, and D’Onta Foreman will continue to be involved as well. Johnson remains a part-time player this week facing off with a defense that allowed the 6^th-fewest running back points and 4^th-fewest RB receiving yards in 2022. I’d view him as a dicey RB3 option this week.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 2: @Car.): Miller returned to practice on Wednesday after missing week 1 with a hamstring injury, but I’d be inclined to sit him Monday even if he plays. At first glance, it looks like a great spot to fire him up. Alvin Kamara is still suspended, Jamaal Williams was wildly inefficient in week 1 with 18 carries for 45 yards, and this week’s opponent coughed up more running back points than any other team in the league last weekend. This seems like a spot where Miller could seize a significant role in a plus matchup, right? As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends. The crooked point total the Falcons RBs put on the Panthers was an aberration. Atlanta added Bijan Robinson to an offense that was already a top-4 rushing offense in the NFL last season. They’re going to make a lot of defenses look bad. The Panthers aren’t an elite run defense, but they aren’t as bad as the Falcons made them look. This was a middling unit last season, allowing the 17^th-most RB points per game, and the Saints were a bottom half rushing offense even with Alvin Kamara. Don’t expect a blowup game from Miller here in a role where he’s sharing the backfield with Williams. He may still finish with a useful fantasy day if he can find his way into the end zone but starting him in a middling matchup when he has injury concerns and an uncertain role doesn’t sound like a good time to me. The fact that the Saints play Monday night is another knock against Miller. If you plan to start him and he winds up inactive, you’ll be scrambling for a replacement.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Bigsby found the end zone in week one and his week 2 opponent coughed up 116 running back rushing yards to the Lions last week, but Bigsby’s role isn’t big enough to rely on this week. Travis Etienne dominated the Jaguars’ backfield workload in the opener, playing 80% of the snaps, but Bigsby got the two carries when the Jags got in close. There’s a chance that goal line role continues for Tank, so he does have some fringe value since this matchup has the highest Vegas point total of the week, but if Tank doesn’t find the end zone, you’re going to be bummed if you started him.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 2: @Det.): As expected, JSN functioned as the clear WR3 for Seattle in week 1. He was in a route on 66% of the team passing dropbacks while DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were both at 90% or better, and while JSN did tie for a team-high 5 targets, he saw a measly 3% of the team air yards. Smith-Njigba turned those short targets into just 3 catches and 13 yards. You’d like to see more downfield usage from him, but the reality is that the Seahawks’ pass protection just wasn’t very good in the opener, forcing a lot of quick throws from Geno Smith. Smith faced the 8^th-highest pressure rate in week 1 and will be without both of his starting tackles in week 2 due to injury. Part of the plan to replace those tackles was signing 41-year-old free agent Jason Peters off the street. Aidan Hutchinson could have a field day in this game, and JSN should be in line for more short targets. A big game isn’t out of the question as the Seahawks have scored 48 and 51 points in their last two meetings with the Lions, but these aren’t the same Lions. I’d probably keep JSN benched another week unless you’re desperate in a deeper PPR league.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Week one included a lot of positive takeaways for Josh Downs. He was in a route on 77% of the Colts’ dropbacks and earned 5 targets in an offense that was much more pass-heavy than expected in the opener. The problem for Downs was his 3.4-yard aDOT. It would take a lot of targets or a lot of yards after the catch to compile a solid fantasy day on those kinds of short passes. The Texans allowed the 12^th-fewest wide receiver points last season, but they’re likely to be missing both of their starting safeties. I’d still probably avoid Downs this week in anything but deep PPR leagues. 10 PPR points would be a pleasant surprise.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Rice impressed in week 1, tying for a team-high 5 targets and turning it into a 3-29-1 performance on Thursday night. He’s going to earn more opportunities going forward if he keeps making the most of his chances, but his 27% route participation rate in the opener isn’t going to lead to sustainable production, especially with Travis Kelce likely back to hog targets this week. Jacksonville was just a middling WR defense a year ago, but the Chiefs have too many WRs that they’ll try to get involved for you to rely on any of them for fantasy right now. You’d be best served playing the waiting game until we really know what everyone’s role will look like.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 2: @Atl.): The final stat line didn’t look pretty for Reed as he turned 5 targets and a rushing attempt into just 6.6 PPR points, but a deeper look shows more positives than the surface level stats. Reed was targeted on 25% of his routes run and had a team-high 32% air yardage share. You’d prefer to see more than 2 catches on 5 targets, but just 3 of those targets were catchable and Jordan Love constantly looked for Reed on the money downs. 40% of Love’s 3^rd and 4^th down targets were intended for the rookie. The unfortunate thing for Reed is the impending return of Christian Watson. Watson is hoping to return this week, and if it happens, he’ll likely cut into Reed’s opportunities a bit. I do expect the Packers to have to throw more this week in a game that shouldn’t be as lopsided, but Reed will be hard to trust if the Packers’ WR1 is healthy. I’d keep Reed benched this week if Watson plays. If Watson sits again, Reed will have a great chance to at least match the 6 opportunities he got in week 1, so keep an eye on the injury report here.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Mingo was a full-time player in week one, running a route on 93% of the team’s passing dropbacks and earning 5 targets, but he’s going to have to endure some growing pains from teammate Bryce Young who posted the lowest PFF passing grade of any QB in week 1. Those 5 targets for Mingo turned into 2 catches and 17 yards, and the Saints are a better defense than the Falcons. There’s a chance for improved performance from Young and more production for Mingo this week, but I wouldn’t want to rely on it.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Entering the season there was a lingering question about what the snap share would look like between Buffalo’s TE2 Dalton Kincaid and WR3 Deonte Harty, and the week 1 returns overwhelmingly favored Kincaid as he logged a 76% route participation rate compared to just 26% for Harty. Kincaid is close to a full-time player, but a troubling development in week 1 was his lack of downfield usage. Kincaid was targeted 4 times against the Jets, but his average target depth was just a yard and a half downfield. The deeper targets were mostly reserved for Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. That could change as the season goes on, but I’d prefer one of the other rookie starting tight ends over Kincaid this week as both have better matchups. The Raiders did allow the 12^th-most TE points last season, but Kincaid is splitting the TE work with Dawson Knox and Las Vegas allowed the 7^th-fewest yards per catch to the position in 2022. If you can live with a ‘5 catches for 30 yards’ type of stat line from your tight end, Kincaid might be up your alley this week, but I’d aim higher in week 2.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): As I mentioned above, no QB earned a lower passing grade from Pro Football Focus in week 1 than Bryce Young. He’s got a learning curve ahead of him and faces what should be a brutal matchup in week 2. The Saints picked off Ryan Tannehill 3 times, sacked him 3 times, and held him to just a 28.8 passer rating in week 1. Expecting a bounce back from Young this week against that defense is just asking for a single-digit point total from your QB spot.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Tucker took a distant back seat to Rachaad White in the opener, handling just 15% of the snaps, but White looked like the same inefficient back we saw in 2022 as he rushed for just 39 yards on 17 carries. White should continue to get the bulk of the backfield work for now, relegating Tucker to benches in fantasy leagues, but if Rachaad doesn’t start to show signs of improvement, Tucker’s time is coming.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 2: @Det.): Two of my biggest misses of week 1 were expecting the Seahawks to beat the Rams without much difficulty and expecting Seattle to ease Kenneth Walker III back into the lineup after his preseason groin injury. Instead, the Seahawks were rolled by the Rams and KW3 dominated the backfield work, playing 65% of the snaps and handling 71% of the team rushing attempts. Charbonnet didn’t even have the rest of the workload to himself, he shared it with DeeJay Dallas. This matchup might look enticing considering that Seattle has scored 51 and 48 points in their two meetings with the Lions in the last 2 years, but these aren’t the same old Lions and Charbonnet won’t see the field enough to be trusted in fantasy lineups.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 2: @Ten.): Johnston earned more targets than Joshua Palmer in week one, but he ran about half as many routes as his teammate as he operated as the team’s WR4. The Chargers were more run-heavy than we expected in week 1, which limits Johston’s upside even more, but that may change in week 2 with Austin Ekeler banged up and LA facing a much tougher run defense in Tennessee. I’d keep waiting for Johnston’s role to grow before considering him in lineups.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): If you watched Josh Dobbs and the Arizona offense in week 1, you don’t need me to tell you that starting the pass-catchers in that offense isn’t a great idea. There were some promising numbers in Wilson’s debut, including a 91% route participation rate and a 39% air yardage share, but it resulted in just 2 catches for 19 yards. Dobbs is trying to get by with dink & dunk throws (he averaged just 6.3 yards per completion last weekend), and Wilson just isn’t going to produce much if this passing game can’t threaten the intermediate level.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Palmer scored a TD in week 1, but he totaled just 2 catches for 8 yards on 3 targets. The passing targets in this offense are going to be funneled to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Palmer is going to battle for scraps with Cade Otton, Deven Thompkins and the running backs each week. He’s no more than a TD dart throw.

WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Was.): Mims was expected to operate as the Broncos WR2 in the opener with Jerry Jeudy sidelined, and instead he worked as the WR4 behind both Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson. Russell Wilson spread the targets around in week 1 with 8 different players seeing multiple targets, and nobody seeing more than 6, but 2-3 targets for Mims on limited snaps isn’t going to make him fantasy viable.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 2: @Ari.): Hyatt was in a route on 39% of the Giants’ passing dropbacks in week 1, but he saw just 1 target that he didn’t catch. Your hope if you play him is that he catches a deep TD against a bad Arizona defense, but the Cardinals allowed just one completion of 20 or more yards in week 1. Another goose egg is entirely possible here.

TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. Cle.): Pat Freiermuth exited the Steelers’ week 1 game with a chest injury, but don’t let that fool you into thinking that Washington is a sleeper this week. It was Connor Heyward who stepped in and earned 4 second half targets. Washington was in a route on 31% of the team passing dropbacks (compared to just 25% for Heyward), but the ball didn’t come his way at all. Whether Muth plays or not, Washington isn’t much more than a TD dart throw.

Players to sit who are injured or had very limited or non-existent week 1 roles: RB Evan Hull, IND, RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Chris Rodriguez, WAS, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Tre Tucker, LV, TE Michael Mayer, LV

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Spears didn’t put up a big fantasy point number in week 1, but his usage is worth taking note of. Spears actually out-snapped Derrick Henry in week 1. Henry still handled 79% of the rushing workload, but Spears was in a route on 50% of the Titans’ passing drop backs and led all running backs in air yards in week 1. Spears isn’t just the passing-down complement to Derrick Henry. The Titans are making an active effort to get him involved in the offense. This might not be the best spot to get him into the lineup as the Chargers allowed fewer than 4 receptions per game to opposing running backs last year, but Spears shouldn’t be a free agent in 12-team PPR leagues. He’s worth a stash if you can make room for him.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Dell ran a route on just 46% of the Texans’ dropbacks in week 1, but Houston placed starting receiver Noah Brown on IR this week, and John Metchie’s status is still uncertain for week 2. That could mean Dell is in line to play a full complement of snaps, and I already mentioned that this offense may push for 40 pass attempts again this week. Robert Woods and Nico Collins dominated targets last week, but with more playing time we could see Dell reach 6-7 targets, and he has the kind of speed and run-after-catch skills that could turn any reception into a TD. He’s mostly an option for the deepest leagues and DFS lineups this week, but Dell has an intriguing ceiling against the Colts.

WRs Demario Douglas & Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): With DeVante Parker sidelined in week 1, Boutte was second on the team in routes run and Douglas was tied for second on the team in targets (both behind Kendrick Bourne). Both are worth a stash in deep leagues while the Patriots try to work out their receiver pecking order. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the highest paid WR on the team, but he was standing on the sideline during the Pats comeback effort last weekend. Of the two rookies, I’d prioritize Douglas since he was able to earn targets, but both have the chance to earn a substantial role if they make the most of their opportunities. Boutte was viewed as an elite WR prospect once upon a time, but Douglas had the higher day 3 draft capital of the two.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions this week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 2 was a much more fun display than the opening week if you like offensive football. Week 1 featured some putrid passing lines and 9 games where there were fewer than 40 total points scored. In week 2, there were just 2 contests that failed to reach 40 total points, and fantasy points followed. We saw 16 different QBs hit 20 fantasy points last weekend, and also 17 running backs and 32 wide receivers that topped 15 PPR points.

We should see some regression to the mean there this week, so don’t treat last week’s point totals as the new normal moving forward. Most weeks it won’t take 14+ points to climb the ranks of the WR3s. The rookie crop has been performing at a high level already this season, though not all of it has come from the expected sources.

Bijan Robinson, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison have been great, but other highly drafted rookies like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Zach Charbonnet have been slow to make a fantasy impact. The real surprises have come from the less heralded wide receivers in this class – Puka Nacua, Jayden Reed, Tank Dell, Marvin Mims Jr., Dontayvion Wicks, and Jalin Hyatt all piled up 80+ yards and/or a TD in week 2. Which of those guys can we count on going forward?

Stay tuned and I’ll tell you.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dig into week 3…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 3: @Det.): Robinson has posted back-to-back top-10 fantasy finishes to start his career, and this week faces a Detroit defense that gave up two TDs to Kenneth Walker III last weekend. The Lions have held opposing runners to just 3.6 yards per carry through two weeks, but Bijan is a different type of running back. The Falcons will continue to lean on the running game, and Bijan’s role grew in week 2. Robinson should remain locked into your lineups as an RB1 this week.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 3: @Cin.): I warned against setting the expectations for Nacua too high after his incredible debut in Seattle. I did not expect him to have an even bigger game in week 2. At this point it’s clear the rookie will be holding down the Cooper Kupp role in this offense at least until Kupp returns, and he should continue to see a ton of targets each week. He’s joined in on Matt Stafford and Kupp’s daily breakfast film sessions, and the results of that are showing on the field. Nacua is currently the PPR WR2 in fantasy despite not scoring a touchdown yet. The Bengals have allowed the 10^th-fewest WR points per game so far, but Puka hasn’t really given us much reason to temper our expectations. Another 10+ target game and potential top-12 finish is very possible yet again.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Keep an eye on the injury report here and make sure Richardson is good to go before plugging him in. The rookie QB is trying to come back from a concussion suffered last Sunday and isn’t practicing as of Thursday. If he’s able to get cleared, I’d view him as a low-end QB1 even in a tough matchup with Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the 9^th-fewest QB points so far, but the Colts will continue to let Richardson keep running and keep throwing a bunch. The rushing gives him a built-in floor that won’t kill you even if he has a sub-par passing day. This likely won’t be a ceiling day for AR, but he’ll be a passable starter if he’s able to suit up.

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 3: @Jax.): If you have Stroud in superflex leagues, this is probably a good week to fire him up as a starter. Stroud has thrown 44+ pass attempts in each of his first two games, and his production caught up to that volume in week 2 with a QB13 finish in a week with a lot of strong QB play. This week he faces Jacksonville, who has allowed both QBs they’ve faced so far (Mahomes and Anthony Richardson) to tally 20+ fantasy points and 2 touchdowns. Stroud doesn’t have the passing ability of Mahomes or the running ability of Richardson, but he should throw enough to push for another top-15 finish.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Gibbs’ playing time was on the upswing in week 2 even before David Montgomery got hurt, but Montgomery’s injury opens the door for even more opportunity for the Lions’ rookie back. Craig Reynolds (or possibly Bam Knight) will see some playing time to share the workload with Gibbs, but Gibbs out-snapped Reynolds 17-to-10 after Montgomery was injured last Sunday. I’d expect a similar split this week. The Falcons have been pretty strong against opposing running backs, allowing the 6^th-fewest points per game to the position, but largely that’s due to not giving up any touchdowns. Atlanta has allowed 119 rushing yards per game, and Gibbs is going to get enough work and is explosive enough to take advantage of them. I’d view Gibbs as a mid-range RB2 with upside for more this week. If nothing else, this game should be a great showcase for two excellent rookie running backs.  

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. Ind.): Flowers’ usage took an expected step back in week 2 with Mark Andrews back in action, but he still turned 5 targets into a double-digit PPR performance. The Ravens got Flowers the ball further downfield against the Bengals with a 12.6-yard aDOT, and the Colts have been shredded by opposing WRs so far this year. Indy has allowed 5 different receivers to hit double-digit fantasy points, and the two team WR1s they faced put up lines up 8-101-1 (Calvin Ridley) and 7-146-1 (Nico Collins). In fairness, Mark Andrews is probably more the WR1 in this offense than Zay Flowers, but this is still a great spot for Flowers to finish as a top-30 fantasy wide receiver.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. LAC): Addison still worked behind KJ Osborn as the Vikings’ WR3 last weekend in terms of playing time, but his route participation rate ticked up a little bit and the gap is closing. He continues to see a meaningful workload in a high-volume passing attack, earning 6 and 5 targets in the first two games and a 25% or higher air yardage share in both games. He also found the end zone in both games. This week the Vikings face the Chargers, who have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team so far. Much of that damage was done by Tyreek Hill in the opener, but Addison should be in line for a similar workload to what we’ve been seeing in a plus matchup. 60+ yards and another possible TD feels like a realistic expectation.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 3: @Jax.): Noah Brown’s trip to injured reserve opened the door a crack for Tank Dell in week 2, and the rookie bulldozed through it, tallying 7-72-1 on 10 targets against the Colts last Sunday. Dell has cemented himself as a full-time receiver in this offense, and while the Jaguars are a better pass defense than the Colts, Jacksonville is favored in this game by more than a touchdown and the Texans should again have high passing volume. Houston has thrown the ball 91 times in their first 2 games, and another 40+ attempts are highly likely here. Despite his diminutive size, Dell has spent the bulk of his snaps lined up on the perimeter, and the Jaguars have allowed the 6^th-most PPR points to perimeter WRs through the first 2 weeks. Dell is pretty close to the borderline for me in this one, but that expected volume says err on the side of getting him into your lineups if it’s a close call for you.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): LaPorta has finished as the PPR TE8 in each of the first two weeks of the season, and I wouldn’t start fading him now. Sammy Ballgame saw his route participation and target rates both climb slightly in week 2, and this week’s opponent, Atlanta, allowed the 3^rd-most TE points per game last year and the 10^th-most so far this year despite facing just Hunter Henry and Luke Musgrave so far. LaPorta remains a good option this week if you don’t have an elite must-start TE.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Young, like fellow rookie QBs Richardson & Stroud, gets a favorable matchup this weekend, but like Richardson, he’s not practicing as of Thursday and his status for week 3 is up in the air. The Seahawks have allowed over 320 passing yards in each of the last two weeks, and the absence of Tariq Woolen should make this secondary vulnerable to a big passing day again. Bryce has totaled less than 300 passing yards combined in his first two starts, but Seattle’s defense should look inviting after what he dealt with against the Saints last Monday. Obviously, the poor fantasy performances in the first two weeks would probably give you pause here, but I think this sets up well for Bryce to have his best game to-date in a matchup where the Panthers should be chasing points. If he’s able to suit up, he should be in consideration as a low-end QB2.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 3: @KC): Roschon got a lot of hype last week after it became known that D’Onta Foreman would be inactive for the Bears’ week 2 contest with the Bucs, but it was Khalil Herbert who saw an increase in snaps and routes run. There is again a buzz around Johnson this week that he’s going to take over as the lead back sooner than later, but even if it happens this week, I don’t love Johnson as a fantasy starter against Kansas City. The Chiefs have allowed the 10^th-fewest running back points and are 12.5-point favorites against the Bears. Chicago might have to abandon the run game early, and Kansas City has allowed just 5 receptions for 29 yards to opposing backs in the passing game. Neither of KC’s first two opponents was ever down by multiple scores, and Roschon did pile up 6 catches in garbage time in week 1, so there is some hope that he sees some similar passing game work late in this game, but I’d look for safer options if you have them.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Spears posted a top-30 PPR finish in week 2, but his playing time headed in the wrong direction as his snap share dropped from 56% in week 1 down to 35% last weekend. The Browns have allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game, and Derrick Henry will continue to get the bulk of the backfield work. Spears’ best hope for fantasy production would be receiving work if the Titans fall behind, but that’s less likely to happen with Nick Chubb sidelined. The Browns are 3.5-point favorites, so it’s possible, but I would treat Spears like an RB4 option in PPR formats.

RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): Achane has been an afterthought for the Dolphins in the first two weeks, but he enters the conversation for week 3 with Salvon Ahmed battling a groin injury. Assuming Ahmed misses this week, Achane will serve as the backup and change-of-pace back to Raheem Mostert, which likely means about a 25% snap share and a handful of touches. Achane’s 4.3-speed means he could take any one of those touches to the house against a Denver defense that has allowed the 9^th-most running back points, but that limited workload makes him just a desperation play this week.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Reed found the end zone twice last weekend and is clearly an integral part of this passing game, but the Packers get a much stiffer test this week against the Saints, and Christian Watson could return and take targets away from Reed. Reed saw a boost in targets in week 2, but many of the looks were shorter manufactured touches like the touch-pass jet sweep that resulted in Reed’s first TD. Those touches will probably remain a part of his game, especially while Aaron Jones is out, but relying on him finding the end zone on those kinds of plays is a losing proposition in a tough matchup like this one. The Saints are a top-5 pass defense, and the return of Watson would ding Reed enough that I’d keep him benched in this one. He’s a WR4 option if Watson winds up inactive again. Watson practiced on Wednesday, but sat on Thursday.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Smith-Njigba has continued to work as the WR3 in this offense, running a route on about two-thirds of the team dropbacks, but the more concerning number for the first-round pick is his 2.3-yard aDOT. He’s getting nothing but short targets, and this week faces a Carolina defense that has allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR fantasy points. The Panthers did play a game against the passing-averse Falcons, so that helped keep that WR point total low, but JSN still has a hard path to a useful fantasy day if his usage doesn’t change. If you’re considering firing up Smith-Njigba this week, keep an eye on DK Metcalf’s injury status. If DK sits this week, JSN is an upside WR4 option. If Metcalf plays, I’d keep Jaxon parked on the bench.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 3: @Sea.): There are reasons for optimism for Mingo this week, but the Panthers’ passing game has been too big of a mess to rely on him this weekend. Mingo has been a major part of the offense for Carolina, logging a 95% route participation rate and 13 targets in the first two games, but that’s resulted in just 5 catches for 43 yards. This week’s matchup would’ve looked like a brutal one on paper last year. Seattle allowed the 3rd fewest WR points in the league in 2022, but they’ve surrendered the 4^th-most so far in ’23 and will likely be without starting corner ‘Riq Woolen this week. Seattle allowed double-digit points to 5 different receivers in the first two weeks, and Mingo likely would’ve seen a lot of Woolen if he were able to play. There’s risk here, but Mingo has very real double-digit potential this week in a good matchup, even if the QB is Andy Dalton.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Wilson’s playing time took a hit in week 2, with his route participation rate dropping from 91% in week 1 down to 56%, but he fielded the same 4 targets, and continues to be targeted downfield with a 20-yard aDOT. Wilson finished week 2 with 3 catches for 56 yards, but I would expect him to take a step backwards this week against an elite Dallas defense. Garrett Wilson broke loose for a 68-yard TD against Dallas last weekend, but aside from that one play, the Cowboys have allowed totals of 9 catches for 85 yards on 27 targets to wide receivers. I don’t trust any Arizona pass catchers to produce against Dallas this week.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Four different Kansas City receivers saw a higher route participation rate in week 2 than in week 1, and Rice wasn’t one of them. The rookie ran just 6 routes against the Jaguars and earned only 2 targets. This entire WR room feels like it’s going to be an unpredictable mess every week. You can’t rely on Rice in season long leagues.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 3: @Was.): Kincaid’s playing time decreased in week 2, even as his targets and production increased. The Utah product finished with 5-43 on 6 targets last weekend, but he gets a tougher matchup this Sunday. The Commanders allowed the 4^th-fewest TE points last season and have allowed the 7^th-fewest through the first two weeks this year. Washington has given up just 5.2 PPR points to non-in-line tight ends, and Kincaid has spent just 31.4% of his snaps lined up in-line. Dalton is still involved enough that he has upside as a fringe TE1, but the matchup is tougher than I like.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Musgrave has posted an 80% route participation rate or better in each of the first two games, but it’s turned into just 7 total targets so far in what’s been a low-volume passing offense. This week he faces a New Orleans defense that blanked Chig Okonkwo in week 1 and held Hayden Hurst to 3-20 on Monday night. The Saints have allowed the fewest TE points per game in the league through 2 weeks, and Musgrave hasn’t been good enough yet that I’d expect him to overcome that tough matchup.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Charbonnet’s role grew slightly in week 2, but he was out-touched by KW3 by a count of 18-to-6. For now, his best hopes for extended playing time would be garbage time in a blowout win, or an injury to KW3 ahead of him. The Seahawks are 5.5-point favorites this week, but that’s not enough for you to bet on garbage time here.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Phi.): The Sean Tucker RB1 hopes took a hit in week 2 as Rachaad White had a bounce back game against an awful Chicago defense. White piled up 103 yards and a score on 22 touches last weekend while Tucker put up just 7 yards on 8 carries. Chase Edmonds suffered an MCL sprain in the game, so it’ll just be White and Tucker in this backfield for a few weeks, but White secured his role as the clear-cut RB1 for at least another couple of weeks with his performance last Sunday.

RB Eric Gray, NYG (Wk. 3: @SF): Saquon Barkley has been ruled out for this game, but that doesn’t mean Gray will get much of an opportunity. The Giants will roll with a committee that should see Matt Breida as the lead back, and Gary Brightwell involved as well. That means Gray would be lucky to see more than a handful of touches and faces a daunting 49ers defense. There are other options that you should be looking at this week.

RB Chase McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 3: @Mia.): McLaughlin has logged just 1 touch in each of the first two games of the season. He found the end zone on that touch in week 2, but counting on a repeat performance would be foolhardy.

WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Mims had a massive week 2, piling up 113 receiving yards and a touchdown along with 10 rushing yards for good measure, but he was on the field for just 16 offensive snaps and ran just 6 routes all game. Those results are excellent, but there’s just no way it’s sustainable if his playing time doesn’t increase. The Broncos will likely be throwing a lot to keep pace with the Dolphins, but you’re praying for another deep ball or two to connect if you try to start him anywhere.

WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Wicks played a lot more than expected in the first two weeks and put up a line of 2-40-1 last week to finish as the PPR WR40. A repeat performance is unlikely with Christian Watson close to ready to return. The Packers have rotated receivers quite a bit in the first two games, with no one reaching an 80% route participation rate in either game, but Wicks is the WR4 when everyone is healthy. The Saints have allowed just 160 passing yards per game in the first two weeks, and I don’t think there will be enough passing output in this game for Wicks to make an impact as the WR4. If Watson sits again, there is some upside with Wicks as a desperation streamer in deep leagues, but nothing more.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 3: @Min.): Johnston was in a route on just 9 Justin Herbert dropbacks in week 2 and turned them into 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 targets. This would be a great week for Johnston to get going against a barely there Vikings’ defense in a game with shootout potential, but you can’t count on him with his current usage. The only format where I’d consider him is in a DFS showdown contest. There will come a week where his playing time unexpectedly makes a jump the way Justin Jefferson’s did in week 3 of his rookie year, but your guess is as good as mine as to when that jump will happen for Quentin.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 3: @SF): Hyatt had an explosive game in week 2 with 89 yards on just 2 receptions against the Cardinals, but he ran just 12 routes and faces a much tougher matchup this week. Hyatt’s opportunities have come down the field, and the 49ers have allowed just 3 catches of 20+ yards in the first two weeks, and none longer than 31 yards. Hyatt’s catches last week went for 31 and 58 yards. I wouldn’t count on him getting those same deep catches against San Francisco.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Phi.): Palmer returned to reality last weekend after scoring a TD in his pro debut. He logged 1 catch for 20 yards on 2 targets last Sunday with just a 38% route participation rate. The Bucs are going to continue to funnel half of their weekly passing targets to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Anything more than a couple catches out of Palmer this week would be a surprise, even in a game where the Bucs figure to have negative game script and be throwing a lot.

WRs Kayshon Boutte & Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 3: @NYJ): New England’s receiver usage looked drastically different in week 2 with DeVante Parker back in the lineup. Parker was in a route for 100% of the team passing attempts in week 2. Meanwhile, Boutte went from a 74% route participation in week 1 to a healthy scratch in week 2, and Demario Douglas went from 47% down to 9% after fumbling early in the game. You can’t trust either player this week, especially against the Jets’ stingy secondary.

TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Schoonmaker scored his first TD last Sunday, but he’s run a total of just 6 routes in the first 2 games. There’s no reason to consider him this week.

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB Evan Hull, IND, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, TE Michael Mayer, LV, TE Darnell Washington, PIT

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 3: @GB): If you didn’t throw all of your FAAB budget at Jerome Ford this week, Kendre is an interesting pick up that should be quite a bit more reasonable to acquire. I like Miller better for DFS lineups this upcoming week than in season-long lineups, but there is a chance for a breakout week for Miller in his debut. Reports are that Kendre could’ve played last week if needed, but that HC Dennis Allen didn’t want to get him in after limited practice time for the week. I’d expect Miller to be ready to roll in this one, and to play ahead of Tony Jones while Jamaal Williams is out with a hamstring injury and Alvin Kamara remains suspended for another week. The Green Bay Packers have allowed the 2^nd-most RB scrimmage yards per game through 2 weeks, and Miller should operate as the lead back against that defense. There’s risk here that he splits the work with Tony Jones, and that Taysom Hill snipes some goal-line work, but if you need immediate running back help in deeper leagues, Miller could be a great plug-and-play option this week.

RB Elijah Dotson, LAC (Wk. 3: @Min.): Head Coach Brandon Staley told reporters Monday that there is no timetable for Austin Ekeler’s return, leading us to believe that Ekeler will be unavailable for week 3. That puts Dotson in line for the RB2 role in a game that has shootout potential. Dotson played just 9 snaps last week, but still earned more targets than starter Joshua Kelley. The rookie recorded 70 catches at Northern Colorado last year (the same school Austin Ekeler attended), and he could serve as the lead receiving back until Ekeler returns. There is PPR upside here if you’re desperate in deep leagues, though Joshua Kelley will continue to be the lead back.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Bigsby didn’t handle a single touch last weekend after seeing 7 carries and a target in the opener, but his playing time didn’t really change from week 1. Tank was still on the field for around 20% of the Jaguars’ offensive plays in a defensive struggle with the Chiefs. I expect the offense as a whole to be better this weekend, and Bigsby could get some extended garbage time opportunity with the Jaguars favored by 8.5-points. Houston has allowed 4 running back rushing scores in the first two games of the season, and I think Bigsby has a great chance to get into the end zone in this game. The risk with Bigsby is high. He might not see many touches if the game script doesn’t go the way Vegas expects it to, but 8-10 fantasy points are very possible if it’s lopsided as expected.

RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Vaughn tallied 32 yards on 6 touches last Sunday, and he could see an opportunity for extended run this week in another game the Cowboys should win easily. Dallas opens the week as a 12-point favorite, and if they win by multiple scores as Vegas expects, both Vaughn and Rico Dowdle could find their way to ample garbage time touches. Neither guy is one I would be thrilled about in season-long formats, but both have appeal in limited slate DFS contests.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Downs has some sneaky upside this week in a matchup where the Colts are a touchdown underdog and should be throwing a bunch. Anthony Richardson might not clear the concussion protocol in time for this game, and Gardner Minshew under center could mean even more passing volume for the Colts. Minshew averaged over 300 passing yards per game in two starts for Shane Steichen’s Eagles offense last year, both in games where they played from behind a fair amount. If Minshew gets the start, Michael Pittman will remain the alpha WR1, but it’s worth noting that the Ravens have allowed the 9^th-most PPR points to WRs lined up in the slot this season. Downs plays the majority of his snaps from the slot. Downs has a low aDOT, but the Ravens have allowed the 5^th-most yards after catch this season. I like Downs’ chances to compile his way to a nice PPR day for deeper leagues assuming Minshew gets the start.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re just 3 weeks into the season, and already the rookie crop has been making a massive impact on fantasy leagues. Hopefully you weren’t too busy watching Taylor Swift cheer at the Chiefs game to notice it. De’Von Achane posted arguably the greatest rookie single-game performance we’ve ever seen as the Dolphins rolled the Broncos by 50 points, but he was hardly alone in having a standout performance. Sam LaPorta finished the week as the TE1, Tank Dell finished as the WR6, and CJ Stroud and Marvin Mims put up big games as well.

Injuries have been a rampant problem in the early going, which has helped get some of these rookies extended opportunities, and those injuries don’t show many signs of slowing down after Mike Williams suffered a season-ending knee injury last Sunday. Standout rookies Achane, Dell, Puka Nacua, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jayden Reed have all benefitted from injuries ahead of them on the depth chart thus far, and following along with the Rookie Report all year will help you know which rookies can step up when an injury happens.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 4…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Robinson is coming off his worst game of his young career and gets a really tough matchup, but you can’t sit your first-round pick in week 4, especially when he finished as a top-10 RB in two of the first 3 weeks. Robinson is more of a contrarian play in DFS lineups this week as he faces a Jacksonville team that ranks 4^th in Aaron Schatz’s run defense DVOA and has allowed the 10^th-fewest running back points per game. He still needs to be in your lineups in season-long leagues.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 4: @GB): LaPorta through three weeks is making the conventional wisdom that rookie tight ends don’t produce in fantasy look silly. The rookie ranks as the current TE2 in total points behind only TJ Hockenson, and he’s logged PPR finishes of TE8, TE8, and TE1. Has he reached the point where you should be starting him over guys like Mark Andrews, Darren Waller or Evan Engram? I wouldn’t go that far, but that doesn’t mean he can’t outscore them. I just wouldn’t count on LaPorta pulling in another 45-yard TD. The Packers are a middling TE defense, allowing the 16^th-most points per game, but the Lions had one of the narrowest target trees last week that I’ve seen. LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Kalif Raymond combined for 93% of the Lions total targets in week 3. If that continues going forward, LaPorta should be a safe top-10 PPR TE (at least until Jameson Williams returns).

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): Richardson is on track to be back under center this week after returning to a full practice on Wednesday, and he should be treated as a low end QB1 despite a matchup that looks tough at first glance. The Rams have allowed the 5^th-fewest QB points per game so far and held both Geno Smith and Joe Burrow below 10 fantasy points, but the Rams also rank just 20^th in pass defense DVOA. None of the QBs who have faced the Rams offered much in the way of rushing upside, and we know Richardson is a virtual lock to run the ball 8-10 times, giving him a healthy floor. The DVOA ranking tells me that the passing matchup isn’t quite as tough as the points allowed number would indicate. Don’t be afraid to plug Richardson in if he’s been your QB1.

RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 4: @Buf.): I know, I know…there’s probably no world where you’re considering benching Achane this week if you’ve got him after watching him pile up 4 TDs and over FIFTY(!) PPR points against the Broncos last Sunday, but the sledding will be notably tougher this week. Denver’s barely-there run defense allowed nearly 30 PPR points to Brian Robinson Jr. in week 2 before being incinerated by Achane and Raheem Mostert last weekend. Buffalo, on the other hand, has allowed the 9^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA. On the plus side, Achane’s big game last weekend wasn’t fueled by garbage time. He worked in a committee with Mostert early in the game and was actively involved while the game was still competitive and should remain in at least a timeshare with the veteran Mostert this week. Despite the tough matchup, the Dolphins’ run game has been playing at an incredible level, and you’ll be kicking yourself if he has another blow up game from your bench. You should find a way to fit him in your starting lineup this week if you can.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 4: @GB): Gibbs had a strong performance on Sunday against the Falcons, but his fantasy production didn’t really reflect that. The Lions leaned on Gibbs on the ground with David Montgomery sidelined, and he racked up 80 yards on 17 carries and hauled in a 2-yard catch. He helped the Lions control the game but didn’t help you win your fantasy matchup. This week David Montgomery seems to be on the right side of questionable, but I’m on board with going back to the well here with Gibbs. The Packers have been shredded for about 150 running back scrimmage yards per game, 5^th-most in the NFL. They also rank just 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. No team is allowing more RB catches per game, and only the Broncos and Bears are allowing more RB receiving yards per game. Monty’s return should free up Gibbs to be more involved in the passing game, and I like his chances to produce a strong PPR day in a good matchup. I like Gibbs to finish as a high-end RB2 or better on Thursday night.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Den.): One of the more interesting games of week 3 will happen when a stoppable force meets a movable object in Chicago on Sunday. The Bears and Broncos have been huge dumpster fires in the league’s first few weeks, but one of them is bound to pick up their first win in week 4. Chicago may finally play a game with neutral or positive game script. The Bears want to be a run-first team, but scoreboard deficits have limited their running backs to just 15 rush attempts per game. A competitive contest this week would be a good thing for both Roschon and Khalil Herbert. Another good thing for that pair is a matchup with a Denver defense that gave up 182 scrimmage yards to the Commanders’ running backs in week 2, and a whopping 441 to Miami’s backs in week 3. Johnson appears to have closed the playing time gap on Khalil Herbert, and the duo essentially took turns playing full drives in Kansas City. Roschon has been the more effective runner of the two, but both backs have high-end RB3 appeal in this very inviting matchup.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Nacua had the worst game of his season on Monday night against the Bengals. He finished that game with 5 catches for 72 yards on 7 targets, good for a PPR WR36 finish for the week. If that’s the floor, you have to feel pretty good about firing him up against an Indy defense that has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game. Cooper Kupp could be back as soon as week 5, so this could be the last week of Nacua as an auto-start.  

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Pit.): Dell has logged back-to-back 20-point PPR games and may be emerging as the best wide receiver on the Texans. The 5’10”, 165-pound Dell’s usage has been surprising, as he’s played just 28 snaps from the slot. Dell is doing his damage lined up mostly as a perimeter WR. The Texans should continue to lean on CJ Stroud and their passing game this week, and the Steelers have allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game so far. I’m not saying another 20-point day is a sure thing, but I trust Dell to be a serviceable WR3 this week.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 4: @Car.): Addison logged a season-high 80% route participation rate and earned a season-high 8 targets in week 3, but he posted his lowest fantasy output of the season after failing to find the end zone. Addison still hasn’t overtaken KJ Osborn for the WR2 role, but he’s slowly closing the gap and this offense is going to continue to be pass-heavy enough that he’ll keep seeing 6-8 targets in his current role. Carolina is a tough matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but some of that is due to the Panthers frequently playing from behind and their opponents running the ball a ton. Minnesota isn’t likely to run the ball a ton, and the Panthers rank 20^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. Both of Addison’s TDs this year have gone for more than 35 yards. I wouldn’t fault you for sitting Addison this week if you have a WR3 you feel really good about ahead of him, but I’d roll with the Vikings rookie if you don’t.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Musgrave has posted a route participation rate of 80% or better in each of Green Bay’s first three games, and Detroit’s defense has given up 9+ tight end receptions or a tight end score in all 3 of their games. Packer tight ends not named Musgrave have seen two total targets this season. I wouldn’t treat the 8 targets Musgrave earned last week as the new normal. Green Bay threw more than they would like to after falling behind 17-0 last Sunday. If their passing volume gets back to normal this week, something like 5-6 targets feels likely here, and against Detroit’s defense that has struggled to contain the TE position, that’s probably enough to push for a back-end TE1 finish. Musgrave has higher than normal chances of scoring a TD as well in this plus matchup. I’d rather roll out Musgrave this week than guys like Hunter Henry, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Higbee, or Pat Freiermuth.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Pit.): Stroud has been fantastic over the last two weeks, piling up 664 passing yards and 4 TDs with just 1 turnover, but he gets a stiffer defensive test this week. Each of Stroud’s last two opponents have been bad against QBs, coughing up 18+ points to the opposing signal caller in every game they’ve played. The Steelers have allowed 18+ just once, to Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday night when they couldn’t contain Davante Adams. The Steelers rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13^th-fewest QB points per game. There should still be a good amount of passing volume for Stroud, so he’s a great QB2 option in superflex leagues, but I have a hard time ranking him as a top-12 QB option this week.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Spears’ early season usage has been promising for PPR leagues, but the production just isn’t matching that usage. Spears is playing nearly all of the long down & distance snaps, and he’s consistently drawing targets in the passing game, but this offense looks like a shell of what it was in 2022, especially when it comes to running backs in the passing game. Last season there were 89 different NFL running backs who logged 10 or more targets for the season. Only 8 of them averaged 8 or more yards per target. The Titans’ backfield collectively averaged 8.0 yards per target on 85 total targets. Through 3 games, Tyjae Spears has 10 receiving yards on 10 targets, or just 1 yard per target. That must change for Spears to start returning fantasy value, and it’s unlikely to change this week. The Bengals have allowed just 3 catches and 20 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. I’m holding Spears in deeper PPR leagues still, but this offense needs to turn it around or have a very favorable matchup before I’d consider plugging him into lineups.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Miller failed to make the most of his NFL debut, tallying just 34 yards on 10 touches. He faces a middling Bucs’ run defense this week (15^th-fewest RB points allowed and 23^rd in run defense DVOA), but the Saints get Alvin Kamara back this week and he should step immediately into the lead back role. Kendre will split the backup work with Tony Jones, making him a bad option in fantasy lineups.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 4: @Cle.): So far this season the Todd Monken offensive revolution in Baltimore hasn’t quite gone as planned. The Ravens are attempting just 29 passes per game and rank just 14^th in points scored. Zay Flowers has continued to earn a big share of the workload, seeing 20% or more of the team air yards in all 3 games and 10 targets in two of them, but the matchup this week with the Browns is a tough one. Cleveland ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the fewest WR points per game. 54% of Flowers’ yards this season have come after the catch, and Cleveland has allowed the 6^th-fewest yards after catch in the league. There’s a sliver of hope that the Browns focus more on Mark Andrews as they did last year, when they limited him to just 3 catches for 31 yards in 2 meetings, freeing up Flowers to do more damage, but that feels like hopium. Flowers is the Ravens’ WR1, so he’s certainly a viable WR3 option in your lineups this week, but if you’re having a tough time choosing between him and another player this week, I’d lean away from Flowers.

WRs Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): The Packers will get Christian Watson back for week 4’s tilt with the Lions, and that knocks both Reed and Wicks down a spot in the WR pecking order this week. Watson is expected to be on a snap count, but the Packers are already a lower passing volume team (they rank 21^st in pass rate over expectation so far), and they’ve been spreading their receiver snaps around more than you’d like to see. In week 3, only Romeo Doubs was in a route on more than 72% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks, and 5 different receivers earned multiple targets. Watson’s return further muddies things. If I had to guess, I’d say Wicks is the WR hurt most by Watson’s presence. Wicks has been targeted regularly on play action passes (5 of his 12 targets have come on PA passes). Last season, Watson led the team with 31% of his targets coming from play action. Watson likely pushes Wicks to the bench, and Reed probably loses some routes to Wicks. The Lions have allowed the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, and while both Reed and Wicks have flashed with their opportunities thus far, I can’t recommend starting them here with reduced playing time.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): Downs made me look smart last week by doing exactly what I predicted and compiling his way to a top-30 PPR finish on 12 targets with Gardner Minshew at QB. It looks like Anthony Richardson is good to go for this game, and I don’t expect quite as much passing volume for the Colts in this one. The Colts are favored by a point and a half, the Rams rank 29^th in run defense DVOA, and Zack Moss is coming off a breakout performance in week 3. I’d expect the Colts to try and lean on Moss and that run game as long as they can Sunday. They may still throw enough for Downs to earn a healthy number of targets, but he turned 12 targets into a line of just 8 catches for 57 yards last weekend. His low aDOT opportunities mean he needs to pile up a lot of catches or yards after the catch to maximize his output, and the Rams have allowed the 2^nd-fewest yards after the catch so far this season. I’d treat Downs as a low-ceiling PPR WR4 option this week.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. LV): The Chargers got the disappointing news after their game last Sunday that starting wide receiver Mike Williams is done for the year with a torn ACL. The injury will mean good things for Johnston’s playing time, but I’d still wait to plug him into any lineups. Johnston has worked behind Josh Palmer on the depth chart, and that should continue in the short term. As the season wears on, I’d expect Johnston to carve out a bigger role. If you’re looking for reasons to plug in Quentin this week, he does have a higher target-per-route-run rate than Palmer, he’ll be on the field in most 3-WR sets, and the Raiders rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA (28^th on deep passes). Just consider yourself forewarned that the floor is lower than you’d like. He’s a boom-or-bust WR4 this week.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 4: @NYJ): In case you haven’t been paying attention, Rashee Rice has now logged 3 consecutive games with a target-per-route-run rate above 30%, and in week 3 he logged a season-high 51% route participation rate. He finished the game with 5 catches for 59 yards on 7 targets, but it could’ve been a much bigger game as he was tackled at the 1-yard line twice. My biggest concern for Rice is that only 2 of his targets happened before the team was up by more than 20 points. I think the route participation rate may be an outlier caused by garbage time. The matchup this week is dicier against a New York defense that has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. Rice is worth a stash in most deeper leagues and could emerge as the best wide receiver in this offense, but I wouldn’t trust him to have a big game this week.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 4: @SF): Wilson hasn’t earned big target volume in the first 3 weeks, but he’s functioned as Arizona’s WR2 and his targets have come downfield. His 16.8-yard average target depth ranks 9^th in the NFL among qualified pass catchers, and 6 of his 7 catches have resulted in at least 15-yard gains. That sort of usage isn’t going to lead to much production against the 49ers, who do not allow downfield completions. Opposing teams have attempted 8 passes of 20+ air yards against the 49ers this season. The only two of those attempts that were caught were hauled in by 49er defenders. This is a bad matchup for a WR who specializes in deep balls.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): Kincaid gets a favorable matchup against a Miami defense allowing the 7^th-most TE points per game, but he’s logged back-to-back games with a route participation rate below 70% and hasn’t yet topped 10 fantasy points in a game. His average target depth for the season is below 5 yards, and it’s just going to be hard for him to put up big fantasy days until that changes. He’s still on the field a lot in a high-powered offense and facing a favorable matchup, so there’s still upside here, but I’d treat him like a fringe top-15 TE this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 4: @LAC): Jimmy Garoppolo was concussed on Sunday night and is listed as questionable for this week, but it would likely be Brian Hoyer who gets the starting nod if Garoppolo is unable to play. The Chargers have allowed more QB points per game than any other defense so far, but even if O’Connell gets the nod, you’d probably be crazy to start him in his first NFL start. The Raiders would undoubtedly lean on Josh Jacobs in that scenario.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 4: @Chi.): McLaughlin played a season-high 20% of the offensive snaps in week 3 and posted 5 carries for 15 yards, but most of that work came late in an epic 50-point beatdown at the hands of the Dolphins. This week’s game should be more competitive against the only other team in the league that looks like as big of a mess as the Broncos. Any opportunities against the Bears’ awful defense are good opportunities, but I don’t expect McLaughlin to get many of them this week.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): Bigsby has found the end zone in two out of three games this season, but he’s handled just 2 touches on 19 snaps in the last 2 games combined. This is Travis Etienne’s backfield, and while Bigsby will remain a threat to vulture more goal line opportunities, the Falcons are yet to allow a running back score this season and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 4: @NO): Tucker has been largely a disappointment in the first 3 weeks if you’ve stashed him in hopes that he eventually takes more of Rachaad White’s touches. White was back to his inefficient self in week 3, but he played 91% of the offensive snaps in the game and Tucker was even worse with his limited opportunities. Tucker now has 10 carries for 8 yards in the last two weeks. You can still hold him in deeper leagues, but every week that passes with White outplaying him makes it harder for Tucker to be useful without an injury ahead of him.

RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. NE): Vaughn tallied 6 touches in each of the first two games of the year as Dallas had a bunch of garbage time in blowout wins. He then played zero offensive snaps in week 3 in a game the Cowboys never led. Dallas is favored by 7 points against the Pats, so if the game goes as expected there may be a chance for a few garbage time touches for Vaughn, but there’s not a lot of ceiling to chase and the floor is zero points if Dallas doesn’t play from ahead.

WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Ari.): Bell tallied the first two touches of his NFL career last Thursday and turned one of them into a TD with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined. His other catch was hauled in off a deflection on a pass that wasn’t intended for him. Aiyuk appears likely to return this week, but Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings have picked up questionable designations ahead of this game as well. If any of them sit, Bell could be worth a cheap dart throw in showdown DFS contests, but I wouldn’t roll those dice in any other format. Again, with Aiyuk out last week he was truly targeted only once, and the 49ers won’t need to throw much in this game as two-touchdown favorites. If both Deebo and Jennings miss this game, I’d treat Bell as a desperation WR4/5 option.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 4: @NO): Palmer was on the field for a season-high 86% of the Bucs’ team passing dropbacks in week 3, but he earned a season-low 1 target as a result. Through 3 weeks, 53% of the Bucs’ team targets have gone to either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Just 6 targets have gone to Palmer. The 3^rd receiver in this offense will continue to be a lightly targeted ancillary player.

WRs Kayshon Boutte & Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Boutte has been a healthy scratch in back-to-back weeks after running 46 routes in week 1, and Douglas has run just 16 routes in the last two weeks. Neither player is worth consideration against a Dallas defense that ranks 3^rd in pass defense DVOA.

TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. NE): Schoonmaker has run just 10 routes total for the season and earned 2 total targets. If you’re looking for 1 target per week (at least for the time being), he’s your man.

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Zach Evans, LAR, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, TE Michael Mayer, LV, TE Darnell Washington, PIT

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Min.): You’re probably scoffing at the idea of using a QB who in his first two games averaged 150 passing yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, but this is a great opportunity for Young to post a solid fantasy day. A week of watching Andy Dalton throw for 361 yards against a bad pass defense hopefully taught Young some things he can use toward a similar outing against a bad Minnesota secondary. The Vikings have coughed up the 3^rd-most QB points per game and rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA. They’ve given up 8 total QB touchdowns through 3 games as well. Bryce’s results in the first two games mean he should be viewed as just a low-end QB2 this week, but he’s got some extra upside in a favorable matchup. Don’t be surprised if he throws for comfortably over 200 yards with a pair of scores.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 4: @NYG): Charbonnet has quietly been earning more and more playing time in this offense, logging a season-high 44% snap share in week 3. Kenneth Walker is still going to get most of the high-value touches, but we saw Charbonnet produce 46 yards on 9 carries against a bad run defense last weekend, and he’s got another one on the docket this week. The Giants have allowed the 6^th-most RB points per game and rank just 25^th in run defense DVOA. If Charbonnet sees another 10 or so touches this week, he should be a fringe RB3 again like he was last week.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 4: @Chi.): You might not have noticed it amidst the SEVENTY points that Miami put on the Broncos, but Marvin Mims put up another stellar game on limited opportunities in week 3. Mims has run just 17 routes in the last 2 weeks, but he’s earned 7 targets and turned them into 5 catches for 186 yards and a TD, with 4 of those catches going for 30+ yards. He also added a 45-yard punt return and a 99-yard kick return TD in those games for good measure. At some point the Broncos are going to realize they have to get this kid on the field more often (beat writer Cecil Lammey hinted that will happen as soon as this week), but even if that doesn’t happen this week, he’s got another matchup where he could put up big splash plays. The Bears have been a disheveled defense so far, and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. Mims is the definition of a boom-or-bust play, but he’s boomed in back-to-back weeks and has a history of being uber efficient. Per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points: Mims in 2019 put up the most receiving yards in US high school history. In 2020, he posted the 2^nd-best age-adjusted yards per route run that PFF College has ever tracked. And in 2021, he posted the best ever yards per target that PFF College has ever tracked. If your league gives points for return yards, Mims is a great upside play, and he should be rostered in all formats. If you want to live dangerously in more standard formats, roll the dice on Mims making it 3 straight booms weeks.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Min.): Mingo still hasn’t quite cleared the concussion protocol, but he’s trending towards being able to play this week against a bad Minnesota defense. Adam Thielen and DJ Chark seemingly cemented themselves as the go-to receivers in this offense last week, but that was with Andy Dalton under center. Mingo still has the highest target share from Bryce Young of any pass catcher on the team, and no team in the NFL has allowed more PPR points to perimeter wide receivers this season than the Vikings. Mingo spends most of his time lined up outside. Obviously, Mingo is a risky play in what has been a shaky passing game with Young at QB, but if Mingo gets cleared, I’d view him as a fringe WR4 with upside for a better game than expected. He’d make a nice contrarian play in showdown DFS contests to counter players chasing the narrative of a resurgent Adam Thielen in a revenge game. Thielen costs $8,600 for showdown contests on DraftKings. Mingo costs $3,000. I expect Mingo to be the better value of the pair this week at those prices.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 4: @NYG): Obviously a 1^st round NFL draft pick isn’t someone you would think of as a ‘sleeper’, but JSN hasn’t exactly been someone you can use in fantasy lineups so far this year. He’s averaging just 4 yards per target as the Seahawks have used him only on short throws. This week he’s got a matchup where he could put up his best game of the season on those short throws. The Giants rank 30^th in overall pass defense DVOA, 27^th in pass defense DVOA on short throws, and have allowed the 7^th-most yards after catch this season. You still can’t start Smith-Njigba in most formats, but he’s got a little more upside this week than usual in deeper full PPR leagues.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Hyatt was predictably blanked by the 49ers on Thursday night, but he gets a much more favorable matchup in week 4. The Seahawks have coughed up over 300 passing yards in each of their first 3 games and have given up 17 completions of 20+ yards and 5 of 30+ yards. The Giants should get Hyatt a couple of deep targets in this game, and it would only take one deep connection to make him a worthwhile play in showdown DFS contests.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.