Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your teams have held together well enough through the first 7 weeks. I’m not going to spend the intro this week lamenting all of the injuries our teams are dealing with…instead I’m going to give thanks that we’re getting a random mid-season reprieve from bye weeks. All 32 teams will be in action this week, which will give everyone a lot of lineup flexibility, but it also means a lot of our rookies are going to get pushed to the wrong side of the borderline this week, especially at running back.
I was excited to lead this week’s column talking about the huge rookie QB showdown looming in Washington, but it looks like a Jayden Daniels rib injury is going to derail those plans. There’s still a lot to be excited about – Ricky Pearsall and Jalen McMillan moving into more prominent roles in their offenses, Brian Thomas Jr. continuing to ascend to auto-start status, and some unheralded running backs who could post surprising stat lines in garbage time this week. Nearly 40 percent of this week’s matchups have point spreads of 7 or more points, and there are going to be some garbage time producers if those games go according to the script.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 8…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): I list Daniels here with the huge obvious caveat that it only applies if he’s able to play. The Bears have been stingy to opposing QBs, allowing the 2nd-fewest QB points per game this year, but some of that has been due to the QBs they’ve played. Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, and the Panthers’ QBs have all been wildly inefficient this year. Matthew Stafford has struggled against a bunch of teams without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The other QBs the Bears have faced – CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence – didn’t put up huge games, but both were within 2 points of top-12 finishes for the week when facing the Bears. Daniels has been uber-efficient this year, ranking 1st in the league in completion % and 5th in passer rating, and he’s averaged 53 rushing yards per game. The matchup isn’t a good one, but I’d bet on him finding his way to a top-12 finish again if he’s able to get cleared to play, but that’s a big if.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): Nabers didn’t blow the doors off in his return from a concussion on Sunday, but he did go right back to putting up a 30%+ target share and a whopping 56% air yardage share against the Eagles. His final stat line was uninspiring (4-41 on 8 targets), but his usage and skill is elite. He’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. this week whenever he’s on the perimeter, which sounds daunting, but the last 3 WR1s the Steelers have faced (Michael Pittman Jr., CeeDee Lamb, and Garrett Wilson) all posted at least 5-60 against Pittsburgh. Nabers’ floor might be a touch lower than that 5-60 line given what we saw last week, but you know his ceiling is significantly higher. He should be in starting lineups again.
WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Thomas put on a show for the London fans in week 7, putting up 5-89-1 on 5 targets, and threw in a 2-point conversion for good measure. He’s now finished as a top-10 PPR receiver in 3 of the last 4 weeks, and as a result he’s graduated to the auto-start section of the column. The usage continues to be very good for Thomas and he continues to make plays when given the chance. He’ll face a tough individual matchup against Jaire Alexander, but I trust in Thomas to provide a solid WR2 type of performance, and Thomas lines up in the slot enough that he should be able to get away from Jaire for at least some of his routes. The Packers allow the 12th-fewest WR points per game, but have had trouble with some vertical receivers this year like AJ Brown (5-119-1), Alec Pierce (5-56-1), and Jordan Addison (3-72-1).
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 8: vs. KC): One of the easiest starting decisions you’ll have in any league is the choice to plug in Bowers as your starting tight end. Bowers has emerged as the Raiders’ true #1 receiver, putting up 30% or higher target shares in each of his last 3 games without Davante Adams around. Bowers finished each of those 3 weeks (and 5 of 7 weeks of the season) as a top-5 PPR TE, and this week he gets to face a KC defense that allows the most TE points per game. The Chiefs have allowed 3 tight ends to reach 90+ yards against them this year, and I think Bowers has a great chance to be the 4th.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Nix has some sneaky top-10 potential this week against the miserable Panthers. The Panthers rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 6th-most QB points per game, including at least 17 points to the opposing QB in 5 of their 7 games. They also just allowed the Commanders’ QBs to rush for over 80 yards last week, so Nix’s rushing floor (he’s averaging just over 6 points per game of rushing production) should be there again this week. We’ve already seen Nix post finishes this year of QB8, QB9, and QB13, and I think he can be in that range again this week. I’d prefer to start him as my QB2, but he could be a serviceable QB1 if you don’t like your starter’s matchup.
QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 8: @ Was.): Williams has taken his play to another level in the last 3-4 games, and this week gets a plus matchup against a shaky Commanders’ secondary. Caleb over his last 3 games has a completion percentage above 70%, a passer rating of 122.8, and a 7:1 TD-INT ratio. Washington has been better in recent weeks against the pass, allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, but for the season, they still rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA, and all of the passing offenses they limited have struggled throwing the ball this year (Cardinals, Panthers, Browns). I’d treat 200 passing yards and 2 TDs as close to the floor here. Like Bo Nix above, I think Caleb is a rock-solid QB2 and fringe QB1 option this week.
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 8: @ Mia.): It’s been an up-and-down season for Marvin Harrison this year with more downs than ups lately, but Harrison’s usage has remained solid. He was in a route on 90% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks on Monday night and earned a 25% target share and 42% air yardage share, but he ended up with just 3-21 on 6 targets. Looking back at the last 3 games, including the one he left early with a concussion, Harrison has just 5 catches in his last 15 targets. If you’ve seen the clip from Monday’s game of Harrison dropping a ball that hit him in the chest, you might assume that Harrison has been the problem, but according to MB Fantasy Life’s utilization tool, just 7 of those 15 targets have been catchable. Kyler Murray’s play has been a problem for Marv. I still think that the usage is going to lead to better performances as Marv and Kyler get on the same page, and I’d lean towards starting Marv this week, but I would understand if you didn’t feel the same as he faces Jalen Ramsey and the Dolphins. With that said, Brian Thomas Jr. (4-47-1), DK Metcalf (4-104-1) and Michael Pittman Jr. (3-63) have all fared just fine against Ramsey and the Dolphins, though Miami does allow the fewest WR points per game.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. NO): McConkey’s final stat line on Monday night was underwhelming (5 catches for 46 yards) but he logged his highest route participation rate of the season (95%) and still finished the week as the PPR WR32. This week he faces a New Orleans defense that allows the 14th-most WR points per game, and has had some trouble slowing down slot receivers like CeeDee Lamb (4-90-1), Ray-Ray McCloud (6-62), and Chris Godwin (11-125-2). I wouldn’t put McConkey on the same level as Godwin or Lamb, but he’s certainly better than McCloud. McConkey also has fared very well against man coverage this season, earning a 34.2% target share and scoring 0.75 fantasy points per route run against that coverage, per PFF, and the Saints play man-to-man at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL. It all adds up to Ladd being a solid bet to finish as a WR3 again this week.
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 8: @ LV): Worthy saw his best usage of the season in week 7, and also saw his worst fantasy output since week 3 after he turned 8 targets into just 3-19. JuJu Smith-Schuster left the game early after aggravating his hamstring injury, and Worthy finished the day with a 32% target share and 56% air yardage share, but the deep passes didn’t connect. The Chiefs did trade for DeAndre Hopkins this week, so it’s only a matter of time before Hopkins is earning a large target share and cutting into Worthy’s workload, but I don’t expect the impact to be big in week 8. I’d expect Hopkins to play something similar to the 35% snap share Amari Cooper played in his Buffalo debut last weekend. The Chiefs will find packages and plays to get him on the field, but there’s no way he’ll have the whole playbook down in just a few days. That means Worthy should continue to play a big role this week, and the Raiders are a much softer defense than the San Francisco secondary that slowed him last Sunday. Vegas ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA, though they’re the only defense that has yet to allow a 40+ yard completion this season. Will Worthy notch the 1st? He might, but even if he doesn’t, I like his chances of getting into the WR3 ranks this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Maye has been fun to watch in the last two weeks, as his first 2 NFL starts both ended in top-10 fantasy finishes, but I think he’s in for a bit of a rude awakening this weekend. The Jets’ pass defense looked very vulnerable against Russell Wilson and the Steelers last Sunday, but they were missing starting corners DJ Reed and Michael Carter, both of whom are practicing in full as of Thursday and should make their returns. Prior to last week’s contest, the Jets were allowing just 11 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and still have allowed just the 4th-fewest points per game to QBs after getting shredded by Russ. I expect that Jets’ defense to bounce back in a big way, and would treat Maye as a low-end QB2 this week.
QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 8: @ LAC): If Rattler gets to make his 3rd start this week, I’d probably stay away even in 2-QB formats. His 2nd game didn’t go nearly as well as the first, as the Broncos limited the rookie to 172 passing yards and forced 2 fumbles before Rattler was pulled for Jake Haener late in a blowout. The Chargers don’t boast a top-5 pass defense like the Broncos do, but they’re a top-10 unit that has allowed just 1 QB to throw for 250+ yards, and just 1 QB to throw for 2 TDs against them. If Rattler is going to have success, he’s likely going to have to find it on the ground, but I doubt he does enough with his legs to find his way to a solid QB2 performance.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Irving’s final stat line last Monday was fine for fantasy lineups (12 touches, 77 scrimmage yards and a TD), but Todd Bowles promised a 3-headed backfield last week and he delivered. Rachaad White led the way in playing time, but RB3 Sean Tucker played nearly 20% of the snaps and saw 7 opportunities. White and Irving’s split seemed similar to what we saw before White’s injury absence in week 6 – an even split of rushing work with White playing much more on passing downs – but Tucker siphoned off a portion of the workload from each, and I don’t see him disappearing this week. We saw Bucky put up 56 scrimmage yards on 11 touches in the first meeting with Atlanta, and I think we’ll see a similar workload here. For the year, Atlanta has allowed just the 5th-fewest RB points per game. With all 32 teams in action this week, I’d treat Bucky as a mid-range RB3 option this week.
RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): Devin Singletary returned to the lineup last week for the Giants, but he didn’t put as big of a dent into Tracy’s workload as I expected. The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense, however, did put that dent into it. The Eagles jumped ahead on the scoreboard early, forcing the Giants into a pass-heavy approach, and the Eagles had Daniel Jones under fire on every dropback. New York totaled just 119 offensive yards and had 9 drives that ended in punts after 5 or fewer plays (including 5 three-and-outs). It’s impossible for any running back to get going when the offense is that inept, and this week’s matchup with Pittsburgh could be a repeat of the same. I expect the Giants will try to lean on the run game early to protect Jones from TJ Watt and the Steelers’ pass rush, but Pittsburgh won’t make it easy – they rank 3rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th fewest RB points per game. There’s also a chance that Singletary was being eased back in after his injury and could see his snaps increase this week. It all adds up to making Tracy a risky flex option in this one.
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk.8: vs. Ari.): De’Von Achane returned from his concussion last weekend and Wright was limited to just a 9% snap share behind both Achane and Mostert. He made the most of his chances, rushing for 33 yards on 5 carries, and is up to 5.1 yards per carry for the season, but he isn’t going to give you much fantasy value with that workload. The Cardinals allow the 12th-most RB points per game, but most of that damage will be done by Achane & Mostert.
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 8: @ Sea.): With James Cook back in the lineup last weekend, Davis was limited to just a 22% snap share, the exact same share as fellow backup Ty Johnson. Davis did post a respectable week with 47 scrimmage yards and a TD, but that’s pretty much the ceiling here unless the Bills win in a romp. If you start Davis in fantasy lineups this week, you’re banking on a TD to get him to an acceptable final stat line.
WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): McMillan has a great opportunity at a breakout game this week as he could be serving as the Bucs’ de facto WR1 against a Falcons’ defense that allows the 11th-most WR points per game. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will be on the shelf for several weeks (Godwin for the year), and McMillan was operating as the WR3 before those injuries. It’s still unclear though if he’ll be used mostly on the perimeter, as he has been so far, or if he’ll be moved into Chris Godwin’s slot role – he was primarily a slot receiver in college. Atlanta slot corner Dee Alford is the weakest link in their secondary. It all shapes up to a situation where McMillan has a good shot at being a quality start this week, but the WR pecking order in the wake of Monday night’s injuries still has a lot of uncertainty, and McMillan has totaled just 6-74-1 on 123 routes run this season. It’s a big leap of faith to plug him in as a starter given his production so far. I’d treat him as a risky WR4 with big upside this week.
WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Pearsall was on the field a ton in his NFL debut with the 49ers extremely short-handed at WR (he was in a route on 84% of the team dropbacks), but those snaps didn’t add up to big production as he ended up with 3 catches for 21 yards on 5 targets. Brandon Aiyuk is done for the year, and as of Thursday, it looks like Jauan Jennings will be out again this week, but Deebo and George Kittle should be able to play. I expect the 49ers to pummel the Cowboys on the ground – Dallas ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and allows over 140 rushing yards per game – and for them to run the passing game through Deebo and Kittle when they do throw. I think you can probably count on something like 5-6 targets for Pearsall as the team WR2 this week, but that makes him just a WR4 option in fantasy lineups in my opinion.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 8: @ Sea.): Coleman’s final stat line looked great last weekend if he was in your lineup. He caught 4 of 7 targets for 125 yards, easily his best yardage game of the season and the first time he’s caught for at least 60 yards in a game. If you look closer, you’ll notice that half of his production (2 catches and 67 yards) came on the Bills’ final drive with a 3-possession lead in the final 5 minutes. Those points still count the same in fantasy football, but I wouldn’t expect the Bills to be throwing deep in games that are already decided very often going forward. The true worry I have for Coleman is that Amari Cooper played just 35% of the snaps in this game. Cooper’s role and playing time are going to grow quickly, and that’ll leave less work for Coleman, who is already averaging just 4 targets per game. He’s going to be a boom-or-bust option going forward, including this week against a Seattle team that allows 13th-fewest WR points per game. He’s an upside WR4 if you want to roll the dice on him booming again this week.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 8: @ Was.): Through 6 games, Odunze has reached double-digit PPR points just once, and continues to struggle to stand out in this crowded passing attack. This matchup with Washington is one I would’ve circled for Odunze a few weeks ago as a great spot for a big game, but the Commanders have been better against the pass in recent weeks, allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games (albeit against bad passing offenses – ARI, CLE, and CAR). This is still a matchup where good receivers can excel, but the Bears’ coaches just haven’t made Odunze a priority in this offense. I’d expect him to see something like 4-5 targets, and would count it as a win if he hits 10+ PPR points for the 2nd time this season.
WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Franklin isn’t quite playing a full-time role yet (he was in a route on 67% of the team dropbacks last Thursday, but he’s moved into fantasy consideration after posting back-to-back double-digit PPR performances. He tallied 5 catches for 50 yards last week and gets to face a hapless Panthers’ defense this week. My concern for Franklin is that he has been much better against man coverage than zone, and the Panthers play man coverage at the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL. Per PFF, Franklin has been targeted on 42.1% of his routes run vs. man coverage and put up 0.76 fantasy points per route run on those plays. Those numbers are just 18.5% and 0.22 vs. zone. When you’re only playing two-thirds of the snaps, those little nuances could be the difference between a WR50 finish and a WR30 finish for the week. I’d probably look elsewhere rather than count on another 10-point day from Franklin against the zone-heavy Panthers.
WRs Xavier Legette & Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 8: @ Den.): Andy Dalton sprained his thumb this week in a car accident, and now it’ll be Bryce Young under center for the Panthers against a Denver defense that ranks 4th in pass defense DVOA. My advice is to pretty much stay away from all Panthers’ skill players this week aside from Chuba Hubbard. Young has been the worst passer in the NFL this season, with a passer rating below 50, and fewer than 5 yards per pass attempt, and the Broncos are about as bad of a matchup as he could’ve drawn here. If you got more than 5 PPR points out of either of these receivers this week, it would be a win.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 8 : vs. NYJ) : I mentioned in the week 7 Rookie Report that Patriots HC Jerod Mayo called out Polk last week, and Polk responded Sunday by logging zero catches on 3 targets. Pop Douglas battled an illness and barely played, and Polk still was limited to a 52% route participation rate. His playing time has continued to dwindle, with that route rate dropping from 97% to 69% to 52% over the last 3 games while Kendrick Bourne (27% -> 52% -> 62%) and Kayshon Boutte (23% -> 59% -> 76% -> 88%) have seen their playing time grow in recent weeks. I’d expect Douglas to be over his illness by Sunday, and that likely means Polk will be serving as the team’s WR4. The Jets’ secondary is getting healthy this week, and I don’t expect much production from Polk on what should be very limited playing time.
WRs Bub Means & Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 8: @ LAC): With Rashid Shaheed sidelined for the rest of the season, Means and Tipton will continue as the team’s WR2 & 3 going forward, but this isn’t a good week to insert either into fantasy lineups. Spencer Rattler will likely start at QB again this week, and Chris Olave and Taysom Hill should both return to the lineup. I expect Hill’s return means the Saints will lean on the run game and limit Rattler’s chances to turn the ball over, and Olave’s return means he’ll dominate the targets in the passing game. The Chargers play at the slowest pace in the NFL, so matchups against them already have fewer total plays than an average game. Fewer total plays means fewer pass plays, and fewer targets to go around. If Derek Carr returns, you could maybe get away with starting Means if you’re desperate, but with a full slate of games this week, you shouldn’t be at that level of desperation. Tipton will likely lose more snaps to Taysom Hill than Means will.
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 8 : @ Den.): If you missed the blurb above about Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, I’m advising that you stay away from all Carolina skill players except Chuba Hubbard now that we know Bryce Young will be under center. Sanders has been on a nice trajectory in recent weeks with Tommy Tremble sidelined and Andy Dalton starting – he’s set new PPR season-high point totals in 4 straight weeks, including his first top-12 positional finish of the year last weekend. I was already a little wary of Sanders this week due to the possibility of Tommy Tremble returning to the lineup. Tremble has played comfortably ahead of Sanders when healthy, and although Sanders has made a strong case in recent weeks that he should be the starter going forward, NFL coaches are usually slow to make those kinds of changes. Dave Canales will likely notice that the Panthers have been much more competitive on the scoreboard with a healthy Tommy Tremble – their only win and their only loss by 10 or fewer points were in the two games where Tremble played 80% or more of the snaps. Bryce Young under center likely makes the Tremble conversation moot this week anyway. Sanders has just 4 catches for 14 yards on throws from Bryce Young this season. He’s a risky play even as a TE2 this week regardless of Tremble’s status.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 8: @ NE): Allen’s playing time has decreased in 3 straight games now since Todd Downing took over the Jets’ offensive play-calling, bottoming out at just a 9% snap share and 3 touches in week 7. The Jets are favored by a full touchdown this week, and the Patriots are an awful run defense – they rank 28th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game – but playing Allen this week is nothing more than a bet on garbage time touches. It’ll be the Breece Hall show again if it remains close, and with Drake Maye at QB for New England and the Jets’ secondary a little banged up, it might remain close.
RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Jordan Mason played in week 7 despite a questionable tag, and Guerendo played just 9% of the offensive snaps as a result. The 49ers should lean harder on the run game with their WR group in shambles due to injuries and a bout with pneumonia – the Cowboys are one of the worst run defenses in the league - but most of that work will go to Mason. Guerendo likely will play just a handful of snaps unless they run away with the game.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 8: @ LV): Steele made it through a game without fumbling for the first time in a few weeks last Sunday, but he played just a 19% snap share for the third week in a row. His run as a useful fantasy back this season is likely over. KC is favored by 10 points this week, so there’s a chance Steele gets a few carries in garbage time if this game is a blowout, but those carries are just as likely to go to Samaje Perine as they are to go to Steele. He’s a garbage time TD dart throw if you’re desperate this week.
RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 8: @ Den.): Brooks did not make his anticipated return in week 7, so we get to wait and hope he makes his NFL debut in week 8 instead. Chuba Hubbard has been playing more than 80% of the snaps in the last two weeks and has finished in the top-20 fantasy RBs in each of the last 5 games. As I mentioned last week, Brooks will need Chuba to get hurt or falter if he wants to take over the lead back role, and he’ll likely need a ramp-up period before he can even overtake Miles Sanders for the RB2 role.
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 8: @ Mia.): Benson continues to be an afterthought in the Cardinals’ backfield mix. He played just 7% of the snaps on Monday night and didn’t touch the ball even once. The last time he was at a 20% or higher snap share was in week 1, and he’s tallied 5 or fewer touches in 5 out of 7 games this season. There was some hope for Benson last weekend as James Conner was battling an ankle injury, but Conner wound up dominating the backfield work Monday night. This is a week where extra opportunities would be a good thing for Benson. The Dolphins rank 30th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 6th-most RB points per game, but I’m not confident those extra opportunities will come.
RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk.8: vs. Min.): I noted ahead of the Rams’ week 6 bye that Corum had moved ahead of Ronnie Rivers on the depth chart to become the primary backup, but his role remains extremely limited behind Kyren Williams. Corum was on the field for just 10% of the Rams’ offensive snaps last weekend and carried 3 times for 11 yards. That limited role won’t make him a useful fantasy play this week against a Minnesota defense that ranks 1st in run defense DVOA and allows the 9th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 8: @ Jax.): Lloyd is eligible to come off IR at any time for the Packers, but it sounds unlikely that he’ll get cleared to play this week. Even if he is able to play, he’s got work to do to move back ahead of Emmanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks for the backup RB job.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): McCaffrey has been in a route on 40% or more of the Commanders’ dropbacks in 6 of 7 games this season, but he still hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this season. He was targeted zero times in week 7, and this week faces a Chicago defense that allows the 6th-fewest WR points per game. You’d need something miraculous to get value out of McCaffrey in your lineups this week.
WR Jacob Cowing, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): A decimated 49ers WR corps forced Cowing into his first extended action of the season last Sunday, and he posted a solid 2-50 line that included a 41-yard catch. The 49ers entered the game without Jauan Jennings, and then lost Deebo Samuel to pneumonia and Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL, but despite all of those missing receivers, Cowing still ranked just 4th in route participation rate among the rest of the team’s wideouts. Ricky Pearsall (84%), Chris Conley (73%) and Ronnie Bell (38%) all ran routes at much higher rates than Cowing (22%). The big play was nice, but Cowing is no higher than 4th on this depth chart, and he’s lower than that if Deebo or Jennings return this week.
TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): With Malik Nabers back on the field, Johnson went back to running wind sprints. The rookie tight end was in a route on 88% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but he was credited with zero targets after the only pass thrown in his direction resulted in a zero-yard catch that was nullified by an offensive pass interference penalty. Johnson totaled 8 targets in the two games that Nabers missed. He’s totaled 4 in the last 4 games that Nabers played. The Steelers do allow the 11th-most TE points per game, but it’s hard to produce points if the ball doesn’t come your way.
TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): All hit a 50% route participation rate on Sunday, the first time all season that he’s run more routes than Mike Gesicki, but it means nothing if he’s not being targeted. This passing game has been funneled through Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase since Higgins got back up to speed. All has earned just 5 targets on 44 routes run over the last 3 games. The increased playing time is promising, but it likely doesn’t come with increased fantasy value for now.
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Sinnott finally earned his first NFL target last week, and on top of that, his first catch and first TD as well. He finished with 2 catches for 6 yards and a TD on 2 targets. Both targets happened while Washington was up by at least 30 points on the scoreboard. Don’t read anything into it. It’s not a significant change in his usage, and you can continue to ignore him in fantasy lineups this week in what should be a much more competitive contest for the Commanders.
Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:
RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 8 : vs. NO): Vidal has averaged 5 touches and 35 yards per game in the two contests he’s played since Gus Edwards went on IR, and those were both against teams that rank in the top-10 in run defense DVOA. This week he gets to face a faltering Saints team that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and may have to start Spencer Rattler at QB again if Derek Carr can’t get cleared. The Chargers are currently 7-point favorites, but I’d expect that number to grow if Carr is ruled out. There could be ample opportunity for garbage time touches against a team that allows the 5th-most RB points per game. I’d probably keep Vidal parked on the bench if Carr starts, but if it’s Rattler again, I’d treat Vidal as a sneaky upside RB4 option.
RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Estime has played a very limited role since coming back from IR a couple weeks ago. He’s played just 7 snaps in the last 2 weeks, but there’s reason to think this week that could change this week – garbage time. The Broncos are hosting the hapless Panthers, who are forced to go back to Bryce Young at QB this week after Andy Dalton hurt his thumb in a car accident. Denver is favored by 10 points, and the Panthers rank dead last in run defense DVOA and allow more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. The Panthers have lost by 18 or more points in 5 of their 7 games this year (including both games Young has started). If things go according to plan, Estime could easily log double-digit touches in the 2nd half of the game. I’d view this as more of a desperation option than anything since there’s never a guarantee that a game will go according to script, but the upside is there for a top-30 RB finish or better.
WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): I mentioned above that Troy Franklin has been at his best against man coverage this season, but the opposite has been true for Vele, who has done his best work against zone. Vele has been targeted on 23.3% of his routes vs. zone coverage, and has scored 0.45 fantasy points per route run against those coverages. The Panthers play man coverage at the 5th-lowest rate in the league, so Vele should have some added upside this week. I like his chances to compile his way to 10-12 PPR points, which should make him a viable WR3/4 option against a Carolina team that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 8: @ Hou.): Mitchell has been a frustrating player in fantasy this season because the talent is apparent when he’s on the field, but he just isn’t getting on the field enough. When Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce are all active, Mitchell is typically limited to a route participation rate somewhere south of 25%, and while Pittman and Downs didn’t practice Wednesday, they were both back Thursday and I wouldn’t hold my breath that either guy sits this week. The reason I have some interest in Mitchell this week is because this is a matchup where he could make something happen in those limited snaps. Mitchell has been targeted on a third of his routes run this year, he has an aDOT of 15.2 yards downfield, and he faces a Houston secondary that he got behind a few times in week 1 on some tantalizing near-misses. It only takes one of those near misses to turn into a connection for him to suddenly have double-digit fantasy points. Obviously, this is a low percentage bet given the playing time issues, so I probably wouldn’t plug him into lineups, but it might be worth betting a couple dollars on an anytime TD.
WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 8: vs. Ari.): I wouldn’t plug Washington into any lineups this week, but it’s worth mentioning that he was in a route on 50% of the team passing dropbacks last Sunday. It was his highest mark of the season, and he played ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. Things could change for Malik this week with Tua back, and he’ll certainly have a hard time earning more than just a few opportunities per game with all of the firepower Miami has at their disposal, but he could be worth a stash in the deepest of leagues on the off chance that the 50% route participation rate last week wasn’t a fluke.
WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Don’t start Whittington this week, he’s been ruled out for Thursday night’s contest with the Vikings already, but he’s an intriguing buy-low candidate as the Rams actively shop Cooper Kupp around as he returns from IR. Puka Nacua is returning as well, and he definitely isn’t getting traded, but Whittington could still serve as the team WR2 the rest of the way if Kupp is dealt. Whittington has been targeted on a solid 24% of his routes run this season, and finished as the PPR WR33 and WR16 in his last two healthy games played. Whittington’s goose egg last week, absence this week, and Kupp & Puka returns could mean an impatient manager has already dropped the rookie or will take a deeply discounted price for him. He’s worth a speculative stash or cheap trade to acquire in case Kupp gets moved.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.