Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 opened with a bit of a dud on Thursday, but man was Sunday fun. We didn’t have nearly the same injury carnage that we saw in week 2, and there were several close games and wild comebacks, not to mention some breakout games by rookies Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, and James Robinson. This week could be another wild one for offenses with 8 out of 15 games having projected point totals above 50. Let’s dive in and see what to expect from the rookies…
Rookies to Start:
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 4: vs. NE): CEH has seen his fantasy fortunes dip a bit since his breakout NFL debut a couple of weeks ago, but he’s still finished as the RB26 and RB12 the last two weeks. That’s hardly anything to be too upset about, and he should be in line for a nice game this week. New England isn’t exactly a pushover of a defense, but they’ve allowed the 10th-most RB receptions per game and rank just 19th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Edwards-Helaire to carry the ball. He should be a safe top-15 back who will likely break into the top-10 for the week if he gets into the end zone. The Chiefs have an implied total of 30.75, the 2nd highest of the week.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Taylor has already been showing us that he can basically carry this offense if he has to, and with another receiver going down with an injury for this team (Michael Pittman Jr.) he may have to. The Colts should look to lean on Taylor this week, and the Bears are just a middling run defense, allowing the 15th-most RB points per game and ranking 20th in run defense DVOA. The lack of passing targets for Taylor the last couple weeks has been a little disconcerting, but it’s nothing we didn’t expect coming into the year. I think he’ll get a few more passing targets this week in a game that should be a bit more competitive, and think Taylor will top 15 PPR points Sunday.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Robinson announced his presence as a fantasy starter with authority last Thursday despite the Jaguars suffering a lopsided loss. He still gave way to Chris Thompson more often than you’d like to see, but he’s clearly the back you want in Jacksonville, and he’s done enough to ensure the job stays his when Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo get healthy. This week he gets to face a Cincinnati team that has allowed the 5th-most RB points per game and ranks 21st in run defense DVOA. The Jaguars will look to involve him early and often, and he should be a safe RB2 in this favorable matchup. I probably would look elsewhere for DFS lineups though with Robinson priced in between CEH and Jonathan Taylor on DraftKings this week.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Lamb has quickly proven himself to be a safe WR3 option most weeks, putting up at least 5 catches and 59 yards in each of his 3 games so far. This week he faces a Cleveland defense that has given up the 6th-most WR points per game despite playing the Ravens and Washington, two teams that don’t put up a ton of WR points. This is a great week for Lamb to get into the end zone for the first time in his young career. Don’t be shy about getting him into your lineups.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): I actually think Burrow is a borderline QB1 this week. The Bengals have shown that they’re comfortable with the rookie airing it out, and he gets a very beatable matchup with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick to finish as the QB8 and QB6, respectively in the last two weeks. The Bengals are actually favored to win this game and have an implied point total of 26. The emergence of Tee Higgins to go along with AJ Green and Tyler Boyd makes this an offense that will produce points in plus matchups. Get Burrow in your 2QB lineups, and give him some consideration if you don’t love your starter for this week in a 1-QB league.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 4: @Was.): Dobbins’ usage has been hard to predict on a weekly basis, but I feel pretty confident that he’ll see a decent amount of work this week. The Ravens are an astounding 13-point favorite, and this will be a spot where everyone on their offense can get right. Washington is a middle of the pack run defense, and I’d expect there will be somewhere around 30 carries divvied up between Dobbins, Mark Ingram, and Gus Edwards. I’d be comfortable with Dobbins in my flex spot this week and would be surprised if he ends up with at least 10 touches.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): On the other side of the Ravens – Football Team game, Antonio Gibson could be hard-pressed to put up a solid game. JD McKissic out-snapped Gibson 34-to-26 in a game where Washington played from well behind against Cleveland. The game script should be similar in this game, so we could see more of McKissic again. The Ravens have allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game so far this season and allowed the 6th-fewest in 2019. Volume should keep Gibson on the flex radar this week, but I’d prefer to keep him benched if you can.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 4: @TB): I list Kelley in the borderline section this week, but I’d lean more towards sitting him than playing him this week. Tampa is favored by a touchdown, and with the Bolts playing from behind last week Kelley was out-snapped by Austin Ekeler 56-to-23. Kelley did lose a fumble in that game and it may have played a part in his limited snaps, but it looks like Ekeler will see a bit of a bump in playing time when the Chargers play from behind. Tampa is one of the strongest run defenses in the league, ranking 1st in run defense DVOA in 2019, and 5th so far this year. They have allowed 8 receptions per game to opposing backs this season, but just 50 rushing yards per game. It would likely take a touchdown for Kelley to be helpful to your team this week, and the Chargers have one of the lowest implied point totals of the week at 18.25. I’d try and steer clear of Kelley unless you’re in a bind due to injuries.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 4: @Hou.): What a week for Justin Jefferson last Sunday. His monster 7-175-1 performance came seemingly out of nowhere. His yardage total was 62 yards more than the TOTAL number of passing yards Kirk Cousins threw for in week 2, and Jefferson now has accounted for 60% of the Vikings receiving yards in the last 2 games. You’d be crazy to count on Jefferson to repeat what he did last Sunday, but he gets a pretty decent matchup and should be a solid upside WR3 option this week. The Texans have been worse against the run than the pass, but they’ve been poor against both. It is worth noting that Bisi Johnson unexpectedly played only a few snaps on Sunday, so keep your ear to the ground on that if you plan to start Jefferson. I think it’s safe to say Jefferson has fully moved into the WR2 role after what he did last weekend, but it was still strange to see Johnson barely play after being on the field for more than 60% of the offensive snaps each of the first two weeks.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Higgins had a breakout game in week 3 against the Eagles, finishing with 2 touchdowns and over 20 PPR points. He actually led all Bengals’ receivers in snaps for the game and should continue to play a full-time role after posting such positive results. The Jaguars have struggled to limit opposing passing attacks, ranking dead last in pass-defense DVOA, and Higgins will continue to be heavily involved in the Cincy game plan. 50 yards feels like his floor in this matchup. I would be comfortable firing up Higgins as a flex or WR3 this week.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): Jeudy’s role as the #1 WR in Denver gives him some flex upside, especially in a matchup against a Jets defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA. Unfortunately, he also has a QB making his first career start under center in Brett Rypien. Rypien doesn’t have a big arm, and I wouldn’t expect Denver to air it out too much in this one. Melvin Gordon and Royce Freeman should see a lot of work, and I expect Rypien’s best friend in the passing game to be tight end Noah Fant. I could see Jeudy finishing with 3-4 catches for 50-60 yards, but anything more than that should be considered a bonus.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Shenault was a bit of a let down in week 3, not exactly having the breakout game that many called for on Thursday. It was especially frustrating to see him playing behind Chris Conley, who seemed to fill the DJ Chark role in the offense. If Chark returns this week, it should make the offense more successful as a whole and help open things up for the rest of the team. Cincinnati’s pass defense is off to a good start in 2020, but they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of passing attacks. They’re more beatable than the numbers suggest. I’d look for Shenault to see 6 or so targets in this one and be a decent flex option in 12-team formats or deeper.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 4: @LV): Davis has quickly ascended the Bills’ depth chart and may see an even bigger role this week with John Brown’s status up in the air. Buffalo has surprisingly been pass-happy so far this season, ranking 9th in pass percentage (They ranked 26th in 2019). The Raiders are 18th in pass defense DVOA so far this year but were 31st a year ago. I think Davis has a good chance to repeat his performance from last week and top 10 PPR points once again if Brown sits. For the season, he has caught every target that has come his way. That’s the kind of performance that gets you more targets.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): Aiyuk has a bit of a breakout game in week 3, finishing just ahead of Tee Higgins as the WR13 for the week, but he may crash back to earth a bit this week. The 49ers have had the fun of playing two of the worst secondaries in the league in the Jets and Giants in weeks 2 & 3, but this week Aiyuk will probably be squaring off with Darius Slay, who is still one of the better lockdown corners in the league. With Deebo Samuel still sidelined, Aiyuk is the de facto #1 receiver for the 49ers, so he’ll be the one getting the defensive attention from Slay. I’d expect he’ll still see a handful of targets come his way, but I don’t expect another top-15 finish. I wouldn’t be eager to roll Aiyuk out there outside of deep leagues this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 4: @TB): Most of the press clippings out of Tampa Bay focus on the offensive weapons on the roster, but their defense has been very underrated going back to the start of last season. They ranked a respectable 13th in pass defense DVOA in 2019, and have improved to 3rd so far in 2020. They’ve also allowed the 4th-fewest QB points per game. Herbert has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his first 2 starts, but I’d be surprised if he makes it 3-for-3. Tampa has held 2 of their first 3 opponents under 200 passing yards. As a 7-point underdog, the Chargers should be throwing the ball a bit, but I’d look at Herbert as a desperation QB2 this week.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 4: vs. NO): I like the pass-catching skills Swift brings at RB, but Detroit’s backfield is shaping up to look a lot like the New England backfields we used to see a few years back, where you never knew from week-to-week which back was going to get the bulk of the work. Swift barely played last week, and while this week’s matchup looks like one where Detroit will be throwing plenty, I’d be hesitant to trust Swift in your fantasy lineups until we know his usage is a little more predictable. Swift played just 6 offensive snaps in week 3 and has seen his share decline each week so far.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Akers’ status for week 4 is still in the air with him not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d avoid playing him if he is able to play even in what seems like a plus matchup. The Giants have allowed the 10th-most running back points per game through the first 3 weeks, and the Rams are likely to be playing from ahead as a whopping 12.5-point favorite. Unfortunately for Akers, his time on the sideline has allowed Darrell Henderson to grab the starting job and run with it. Henderson has reached 120 scrimmage yards and a TD in each of the last 2 weeks, and coach McVay has said he’s earned a start in week 4. There’s always a chance in this offense that Akers gets a hot hand and gets some extra run, or gets some garbage-time work, but that’s not something I want to rely on for fantasy production.
RB LaMical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Den.): Frank Gore continues to defy the football gods and play a large offensive role into his late 30s, and Perine can’t even effectively hold off Kalen Ballage for the backup role. Both played a pretty even split of snaps in week 3. The Jets finally get an opponent that is closer to their talent level in week 4, but this game is going to be U-G-L-Y. The Jets rank dead last in the league in both offensive yards and points scored, and Denver has allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game. You do not want to roll the dice on a guy splitting backup work in that offense, in that matchup. Aim higher.
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 4: @Mia.): Chris Carson suffered an injury on Sunday that could keep him sidelined for the next week or two, but that isn’t a good reason for DeeJay Dallas to be on your radar. I’d expect Carlos Hyde to handle the early-down work and Travis Homer to be the 3rd down back while Carson is out, and would only expect Dallas to mix in occasionally. Seattle is likely to steamroll the Dolphins in this game, so there could be some garbage time opportunity for the rookie against a bad run defense, but it’s hard to count on him getting more than a handful of touches.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): Mooney has gotten off to a surprising start this season, already taking over the number 2 receiver role in the offense. I don’t think this is the week to trot him out there in fantasy lineups though. The Colts rank first in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game so far. We also haven’t seen how this offense will function with Nick Foles installed as the starting QB. I’d keep Mooney sidelined for now in all formats.
WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Washington is banged up at wide receiver with Dontrelle Inman and Steven Sims both appearing to be on the wrong side of questionable in this game. That should mean a sizable snap count for Gandy-Golden, but I wouldn’t count on him cashing in on that opportunity against the Ravens. Baltimore’s secondary will be eager to show that their Monday night meltdown against Kansas City was an aberration, and Gandy-Golden doesn’t have Pat Mahomes throwing him the ball. Baltimore’s overall pass defense numbers don’t look great so far this year, but they’re skewed by what happened on Monday night. They ranked 4th in pass defense DVOA in 2019. Terry McLaurin is the only Washington receiver who should be considered this week.
WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): Both Ruggs and Edwards are not practicing as of Thursday, and the Bills boast one of the better secondaries in the league. Buffalo hasn’t been quite as sharp against the pass so far this year as they were a year ago, ranking 15th in pass defense DVOA so far, but Vegas doesn’t funnel the ball to their receivers even when they’re healthy. Steer clear of both rookies here this week.
WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Jefferson’s preseason hype has faded fast in the regular season. Each week this season Jefferson has seen his snap share drop and Josh Reynolds’ share increase. Reynolds played 90% of the offensive snaps in week 3 to just 12% for Jefferson. It’s hard to say how much the game flow had to do with that since the Rams were in a deep hole for much of the game, but I know that after a week like that Jefferson isn’t a guy that I want to target in my fantasy lineups. The Giants are a very burnable pass defense, but you can’t count on Van to have a big opportunity to take advantage.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 4: @LV): Moss looks likely to play this week, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the rookie. The Raiders have allowed more running back points per game than any other defense and were just shredded by plodder Sony Michel a week ago. I’d expect Moss to return to his goal line and short-yardage role this week and think he has a decent chance to turn it into a better than expected game. A top-25 finish wouldn’t be shocking.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): This is more of a hunch than anything, but this game could go sideways on the Falcons. The Packers are favored by a touchdown and have a ridiculous implied total of 32.5 points, and Atlanta could be without Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage. All 3 are questionable for Monday. The extra day may give them a chance to get right, but we’ve seen the Falcons’ defense hasn’t really slowed anyone down. If the offense is hampered at all, this could be a blowout, and I think we could see a decent amount of Dillon in garbage time. The Falcons are a middling run defense at 17th in run defense DVOA on the year, so an extended run for Dillon could result in a nice game. I don’t know what format I’d suggest playing him this week – maybe a single-game DFS tournament, but I do like his chances at a solid game.
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): Hamler has been targeted 12 times in the last 2 games, and despite having untested Brett Rypien at QB, he still gets to play the Jets’ barely there secondary. I don’t expect a ton of passing volume from the Broncos, but given Hamler’s speed and playmaking ability, I think he has a better shot at breaking a long touchdown than teammate Jerry Jeudy. He’s a shoot-the-moon option in DFS tournaments in this one.
WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 4: @SF): Hightower’s outlook for this week took a bit of a hit on Thursday as he missed practice with an injury, but if he’s able to play this week it seems very likely he will be Philly’s number 2 receiver behind Greg Ward. The 49ers are a stingy pass defense but are still without Richard Sherman. If Hightower plays, he’s probably only an option in the deepest of leagues, but he could be enticing as a minimum priced option if you’re playing in a showdown tournament for the Sunday night game. The Eagles will have to throw the ball to somebody, and with so many injuries Hightower might only be behind Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders, and Greg Ward in the target pecking order in a game where they are a 7-point underdog.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 4: vs. LAC): Johnson saw his first significant game action of the season in week 3 getting on the field for 21 offensive snaps, and the Bucs may be without two of Tom Brady’s favorite targets this week in Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller. Johnson would undoubtedly slide into 3-WR sets along with Mike Evans and Justin Watson if both Godwin and Miller are out, and the Chargers allow the 8th-most WR points per game. Johnson wasn’t targeted in last week’s game (outside of one that was negated by a penalty), but Brady threw just 4 pass attempts in the last 20 minutes of game time, when Johnson saw most of his playing time. I’d expect him to record his first few catches of the season this week if Godwin and Miller both sit. He was a wildly productive player in college, so he’s a player to monitor this week for those of you in dynasty leagues.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Bryant has seen his snap % increase every single game, and while he’s only been catching one ball per week, that’s not much less than Austin Hooper is seeing. The Cowboys have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 8th-most points to the position this year and the 3rd most last year. Bryant isn’t a guy you should consider for season-long leagues, but he’s a sneaky TD dart throw if you’re punting on tight end in DFS.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions of the week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any questions for me feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
0 Wins at MetLife Stadium
Well, it’s 2020 and for football fans in the vicinity of New York City, there’s still no victories to speak of. In fact, the last team to win a home game at Metlife stadium is….the New York Guardians of the currently defunct XFL league – though that may return in 2022. If the Giants and Jets can’t get their shit together, it might be the Guardians who manage the next home victory at MetLife Stadium. As predicted, between the Jets and Giants, Frank Gore leads the way in rushing yards with a whopping 174 over 4 games. The only other rushers over 100 yards on the season are both of the team’s starting QBs. Combined, the teams only have 5 passing and 3 rushing TDs. That’s an average of one offensive TD, per team, per game. Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have combined for 9 INTs, so that’s slightly more than one per game. It’s going to be a rough 2020 in NYC.
28+ Points in the First Half
The Cleveland Browns achieved something yesterday in Dallas that they haven’t done since 1991. They scored at least 28 points in the first half. Now, this isn’t a minor achievement to make fun of, but it is fun to point out that only 4 of the Browns who played in the game are 30 or older and were alive to see the last time they reached that milestone. This year’s Browns, however, seem to be a force to be reckoned with. After getting trounced in Week 1 by the Ravens, they have averaged 39 points per game, albeit against some weaker competition. But hey, you can only play the team that is on the opposite sideline. This year, the Browns are getting the job done on the ground. They lead the league in rushing yards and yards per attempt and have the 2nd most rushing attempts in the league. The Browns are averaging over 200 rushing yards per game and are also 2nd in the league with 8 rushing scores. Nick Chubb heading to the IR will hurt them, but in true next man up mentality, D’Ernest Johnson managed 95 yards on only 13 carries Sunday.
1,690 Passing Yards
Dak Prescott, mostly by necessity of his team allowing 146 points through 4 games, has aired the ball out like nobody ever before. His 1,690 passing yards through 4 games is the most in NFL history, and he’s also the first player to throw for 450+ yards in three straight games. Sunday’s performance brings him ahead of Russell Wilson as the #1 fantasy player this season. His 31.3 point per game average and ADP of 48 means that he’s likely on a lot of teams that are doing quite well this season. I will freely admit that I thought he was overhyped going into the season, but I was definitely wrong. He has to throw the ball to someone, and he has gotten 3 of his WRs in the top 30 for fantasy points on the season. If you just go by yardage, those three guys, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are all in the top 18.
183 Receiving Yards
Your Week 4 receiving yards leader through Sunday is not a wide receiver, though he sometimes pretends to be one. George Kittle caught all 15 of his targets for 183 yards, a TD, and even tacked on an 8-yard rush for good measure. The 49ers are stumbling without solid QB play and couldn’t manage very much against the previously winless Philadelphia Eagles. Elsewhere in the strange receiving fantasy stats, 5 players caught 2 TDs each and none of them went over 100 receiving yards. Only Odell Beckham Jr managed to go over 100 yards from scrimmage, courtesy of his third TD, a 50-yard run on a 4th quarter end-around. Meanwhile, only 4 players topped the 100 rushing yard mark, and 3 of them found the end zone twice. Way to let the rest of the group down, Ronald Jones.
18 Fantasy Points
Finally, we have a look at the D/ST spot for the first time this year. This was a bad week for them, as only 2 teams cracked double digits. The Eagles scored a TD and only gave up 20 points on their way to an impressive 18-point performance. Meanwhile, the Browns – currently a turnover machine with 10 on the season, could only manage 5 points from 3 turnovers and 3 sacks against the Cowboys. The early season leaders at the D/ST position are the Colts (52), Ravens (43), and Buccaneers (37). All still have the ability to just be a crapshoot on a weekly basis. The Colts are in their position courtesy of last week’s 26-point performance, the Bucs put up a 0 in week 1 and the Ravens have only 2 INTs and 9 sacks on the season. Coming up they play Cincy and Philly, so that’s a couple of good matchups to ride with until they hit their bye in Week 7.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Three weeks of the NFL season are now in the books, and the fantasy landscape is starting to really take shape. It was a messy week 3 for most members of the rookie crop not named Najee Harris or Ja’Marr Chase, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn from it. Week 3 may have been the worst week we’ve seen from a rookie QB class in all the time I’ve been writing this column. Davis Mills had the most efficient week of any of the rookie starting QBs as he completed 68% of his passes and threw a TD with no turnovers. The four 1st-round QBs who started combined to go 77-for-140 (55% complete) for 717 yards (5.1 yards per attempt), 3 touchdowns, and 9 turnovers. They also were collectively sacked 19 times. The true standouts in futility were Justin Fields (30% complete, 9 sacks taken) and Trevor Lawrence (4 turnovers). Things should get better for those guys going forward, but there is still a learning curve ahead. Week 3 also saw poor fantasy performances from Kyle Pitts, Rondale Moore, and Trey Sermon, but Javonte Williams managed to break through and score his first TD as a pro. With all of that said, I’m not here to live in the past. I’m here to talk about what to expect in week 4.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 4…
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Najee did something in week 3 that has been accomplished by only 1 other running back in the last 3 decades. He was targeted an astonishing NINETEEN times, hauling in 14 of them for 102 receiving yards en route to an RB5 finish for the week. Only Alvin Kamara has been targeted that many times in a game since targets have been tracked (since 1992). There were a couple factors that contributed to the huge total. Diontae Johnson, who usually vacuums up a large number of short targets, was sidelined, and JuJu Smith-Schuster left with injury during the game. They also were behind by multiple scores for most of the game and had to keep throwing. With Diontae practicing in a limited capacity Wednesday, he seems on track to play this week. That should make it tough for Harris to approach that number again, but it’s good to see how much they trust him in the passing game. Najee’s rushing efficiency still leaves something to be desired behind this offensive line, but he’s played 95% of the offensive snaps or more in each game. This week he gets to face the Packers, who rank 25th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed 6 running back receptions per game. Another top-5 finish is far from assured, but you can feel comfortable firing up Harris as an RB1 in all formats.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): With his two touchdown grabs last weekend, Ja’Marr Chase became the first 21-year-old rookie to ever catch for 4 touchdowns in his first 3 games (breaking Randy Moss’s previous record of 3 scores). Chase has now caught at least 1 touchdown in 15 of the last 18 games the pair has played together. His connection with Joe Burrow has clearly picked up right where it left off when they were teammates at LSU. There are some warning signs to beware of with Chase, though. The Bengals are playing at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league in neutral game scripts (3rd-slowest pace overall), and they’re running the ball a LOT. Cincy has gone to the air on just 34.4% of their offensive plays when they’re leading on the scoreboard. Those factors have led to the Bengals averaging just 25 pass attempts per game through the first 3 weeks. They figure to be leading a lot again Thursday as a touchdown favorite against the hapless Jaguars. Chase has shown through the first 3 weeks that he doesn’t need a ton of volume to post a big day. He’s averaging nearly 14 yards per target and a touchdown every 4 targets so far. The Jaguars, who rank 30th in pass defense DVOA, are unlikely to be the team to curtail that efficiency from Chase. With Tee Higgins out again, even a low passing volume game from Burrow should lead to 6 or 7 targets for Ja’Marr, and that should be plenty to be in the WR2/3 range for this week in most formats.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Smith has been largely a letdown if you’ve started him the last couple weeks, but I like this as a spot for him to get right. Through the first 3 weeks, he’s seen 22.3% of the targets and 40.6% of the intended air yards in this passing game. The Chiefs rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points per game to receivers. The targets are going to continue to come DeVonta’s way, and Philly should be forced to throw plenty as a touchdown underdog. Obviously, there is risk here with Smith, but I really like him to have a big day and finish as a WR2 against Kansas City.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): You can’t overreact to one down week for Pitts. His usage levels are still elite. He saw his highest route participation (88%) and snap rate (84%) of the season in week 3. If those things continue, the targets are going to follow. This week he faces a Washington defense that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 16th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while facing a murderer’s row of Jared Cook, Kaden Smith, Kyle Rudolph, and Dawson Knox in the first 3 weeks. If those guys managed to make this look like a middling tight end defense, you shouldn’t be scared to fire up Pitts again. He has a great chance at this being a breakout game, and he could be a bargain in DFS with a price tag of just $5,000 on DraftKings.
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Obviously if you started Fields last week, this isn’t a well you want to dip back into, but it should be a more productive week for Fields this time out if Dalton isn’t cleared to play. Bill Lazor is going to take over the play-calling duties from Matt Nagy this week. Last season, that happened 9 games into the season. In the 9 games Nagy called, the Bears averaged 19.8 points and 302 yards per game. In the 7 that Lazor called, they averaged 27.7 and 349 yards. Fields also gets to face a very bad Detroit defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and has given up the 10th-most QB points per game. The switch to Lazor isn’t going to fix everything that ails the Bears’ offense overnight, but it’s a step in the right direction. If you can stomach starting Justin Fields again this week after what he did last Sunday, he has a great chance at finishing as a top-15 QB against the Lions.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Mitchell is still working through a shoulder injury that kept him out in week 3, and his status is still up in the air for this one. If he’s able to play, the matchup is a juicy one. The 49ers face a Seahawks defense that has been struggling at all levels. Seattle has allowed over 135 rushing yards, over 80 receiving yards, and a whopping 9 receptions to running backs per game. They’ve allowed nearly 4 more points per game to the position than the team allowing the 2nd-most RB points (Miami). To be fair to the Seahawks, Derrick Henry did a big chunk of the damage that’s been done against them, but they’ve struggled to slow down Nyheim Hines and Alexander Mattison as well. We know the 49ers want to run the ball. If Mitchell starts, don’t look for him to hit those stats the Seahawks are allowing on his own, but he’s got obvious top-15 upside in a great matchup.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Hubbard has been THE guy to target on the waiver wire this week after Christian McCaffrey suffered a hamstring strain that will likely keep him out for a couple games. There’s a chance Chuba shares this backfield with Royce Freeman, but if his usage after McCaffrey went out last week is any indication, Chuba is the player you want here. Hubbard played 73% of the offensive snaps after CMC got hurt and ran a route on 72% of the teams dropbacks. The Cowboys’ run defense has been better this season, ranking 12th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 7th-fewest RB points per game, but this is an offense that funnels targets to the running back position. We saw it last season when Mike Davis stepped into a 70-target season in place of McCaffrey last year, and Chuba’s 5 targets in week 3 are evidence that will continue now. If Chuba gets 5+ targets again this week, that receiving production should insulate him against a lackluster rushing output. He should be a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside in Dallas.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Javonte found the end zone for the first time in his young career last weekend, but also lost his first fumble. We saw some flashes of his talent, but ultimately until he pulls away from Melvin Gordon, you’ll have to look for favorable matchups to fire him up rather than plugging him in every week. This week isn’t a great one to fire him up. The Ravens have been somewhat vulnerable to running backs, allowing the 7th-most RB points per game, but a big chunk of that production has been due to rushing touchdowns, which can be a little fluky, and receiving output. Baltimore has given up 5 rushing scores, with 4 of them coming from 2 yards out or closer. The Broncos may not get any chances in that close. Baltimore has also given up 7 receptions and 65 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. Javonte and Gordon have combined for fewer than 5 targets per game so far. The Ravens rank 10th in run defense DVOA on the year, so it won’t be so easy for Javonte to produce if he doesn’t find the end zone or catch a handful of passes. I’d view him as more of a dicey flex this week.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): I warned last week that Waddle was getting shorter targets from Jacoby Brissett, and that it would likely take a lot of them for him to post a solid week 3 performance against the Raiders. He got a lot of them. It took 13 targets for Waddle to finish as the PPR WR19 with a 12-58-0 line. In the two games where it has been mostly Brissett at QB, Waddle has averaged fewer than 3 air yards per target. It’s a great sign that he’s been so heavily targeted by Brissett, and that could continue in week 4, but it’s a similar outlook for the rookie. He’s going to need significant volume to return value unless he manages to find the end zone. The Colts have struggled to defense WRs, allowing the 5th-most points per game to the position, and slot corner Kenny Moore has just a coverage grade of just 42.5 from PFF so far after being one of the better slot corners in the league a year ago. Waddle has WR3 upside in PPR formats this week.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Lawrence has shown some good through the first 3 weeks of the season, and a lot of bad. The top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has turned the ball over 9 times in the first 3 games and has only managed to offset those mistakes with positive production once. After finishing as the QB12 in week 1, he’s been outside the top-25 in each of the last two weeks. This week he gets to face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the 10th-fewest QB points per game and ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA. It’s a good sign that he’s been using his legs more in recent weeks, but this isn’t a spot to roll him out unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB league. The Bengals’ defense is a good week 4 streaming option.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): On paper, it looks like Wilson gets a softer matchup than he’s faced the last two weeks, but those ‘on paper’ numbers can be deceiving. The Titans have allowed the 12th-most QB points per game and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA, but they were shredded by two of the game’s best quarterbacks in the first two weeks (Kyler Murray & Russell Wilson). They were much better defensively in week 3 as they held Carson Wentz to fewer than 8 fantasy points. I’ve painstakingly documented the Jets’ inability to protect Wilson in the pocket in past Rookie Reports, and Tennessee has the 3rd-highest pressure rate in the league. Taking heat from the defense is going to be a way of life for Wilson at least until Mekhi Becton returns. Wilson is also likely to be missing #2 receiver Elijah Moore this week. He should be at least a little better than he was the past two weeks, but Wilson isn’t a good option even in two QB leagues right now.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 4: @Buf.): Mills held up pretty well against a tough Panthers’ defense on Thursday night, throwing for 168 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over, but he faces just as stiff a test this week against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game and rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA through 3 weeks. It feels sort of unfair to have a rookie make his first two starts against the defenses that rank 1st (Carolina) and 2nd (Buffalo) in pass defense DVOA, but Mills will have to make do. Mills’ performance last week landed him a QB27 finish, and you’d be hard-pressed to expect much more from him this week. He shouldn’t be near your lineups.
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): It’s the same story again with Lance this week. If he isn’t starting, the best you could hope for is a couple red zone scores in a game playing in a sub package. He’s got a zero-point floor and a 12-point ceiling unless he’s thrust into more action than we’ve seen. That’s not enough to sniff the QB2 range, even against a shreddable defense like Seattle’s.
RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. LV): Through the first 3 weeks Rountree is averaging about 14 snaps and 5 touches per game, and the Raiders rank 9th in run defense DVOA so far. There’s no reason to consider the rookie in any upcoming weeks unless his role grows, or something happens to Austin Ekeler.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 4: @Min.): I mentioned Felton last week as a guy to monitor in case he managed to steal some slot work from Rashard Higgins with Jarvis Landry out. I just wanted to update that and let you know that he didn’t. Felton played just 11 snaps to 40 for Higgins. He did out-target Higgins 3 to 2, but those targets turned into just 2 catches and 13 yards. There isn’t enough of a role for Felton to be worth rostering right now.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): Evans is slowly getting more involved in the Bengals’ offense in passing situations spelling Joe Mixon, but this is a low-volume offense right now. Evans played just 5 snaps in week 3, but that was good enough for an 11% snap share, and with 2 catches for 26 yards he managed to outscore some committee backs who are rostered in most 12-team leagues (Devin Singletary, Ty Johnson, Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, Ty’Son Williams). Evans should remain on the wire for now, but his usage warrants continued monitoring.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Stevenson has been a healthy scratch in each of the last two games after losing a fumble in week 1, and although you’d have to expect him to suit up this week with James White sidelined for the year, I still wouldn’t expect a big role. Damien Harris will still be the lead rushing back, and it will likely be Brandon Bolden or JJ Taylor picking up the slack that White left behind. Rhamondre might need an injury to Harris to see a real spike in value. Even if he were to get some carries this week, Tampa has allowed the 7th-fewest running back rushing yards and 9th-fewest running back fantasy points thus far. It would be tough sledding to produce against this vaunted front.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 4: @LAR): Moore demonstrated last week just how volatile he is for fantasy given his current usage. He’s playing as the Arizona WR4, and that means there will be some floor weeks. Week 3 was one of them. DeAndre Hopkins was battling a rib injury and worked mostly as a decoy, but the Cardinals used more Maxx Williams instead of letting the Hopkins injury open more playing time for Rondale. This week’s matchup is an interesting one. The Rams have one of the best cover corners in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey but have deployed him in the slot 55% of the time despite the Bucs being the only team they’ve faced with a formidable slot receiver. If that trend continues, look for Nuk Hopkins to be heavily targeted in this one, and Rondale to be competing with AJ Green and Christian Kirk for any leftover targets. Hopkins has just a 17% target share so far, but I expect this to be the week where that number goes back up. I’d be hesitant to start Moore as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4.
WR Terrace Marshall, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): With Christian McCaffrey sidelined this week, there may be a little more passing volume that usually goes to CMC that could be re-distributed to the WRs, but if Marshall doesn’t start to see some targets further downfield, it’s hard to see him being very useful in your fantasy lineup. Marshall has an aDOT of just 6 yards and is playing fewer snaps and running fewer routes than teammate Robby Anderson despite being targeted more often. I’d expect the target pendulum to swing back toward Robby some weeks, and it’ll be hard to rely on Marshall as more than a WR4 option in deeper leagues.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 4: @Atl.): Brown has been a big disappointment so far this season, posting negative scrimmage yards in two of Washington’s first 3 games. He was targeted just twice last week in a game where Washington threw only 24 times despite losing by more than 20 points. This team does not want to let Taylor Heinicke throw the ball unless they must, and he hasn’t been willing to push the ball downfield where Dyami thrives. Heinicke averages just 7.3 intended air yards per attempt. I would’ve had a little bit of hope for Dyami this week if it looked like AJ Terrell was going to be out again, but he’s practicing in full as of Wednesday (though still in the concussion protocol). The two starting corners with him out (TJ Green and Fabian Moreau) have each allowed a passer rating above 130 on throws into the coverage, and the Falcons have allowed 10 completions of 20+ yards in the first 3 weeks. If Terrell is back, that’s who Brown should square off with most often, and Terrell has allowed just 3.3 yards per target and a 43.8 passer rating into his coverage. I’d have some interest in Dyami as a cheap dart throw in DFS tournaments if Terrell doesn’t clear the protocol, but otherwise this is a player I’d be avoiding this week.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 4: @NO): Toney may see a spike in opportunity this week with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton appearing to be on the wrong side of questionable, but it’s a trap. He was on the field for 66% of the offensive snaps in week 3, and managed just 3 targets, 2 catches, and 16 yards. He is the only WR or TE in the league with a negative average target depth so far this season. Those aren’t the kind of targets that are going to return fantasy value even if he sees a few extra this week. The Saints rank 6th in pass defense DVOA and slot corner Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is allowing just 5 yards per target on throws into his coverage.
WR Dee Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 4: @SF): Eskridge is likely to get cleared from the concussion protocol and return this week, but there really aren’t any formats where you can feel comfortable firing him up in fantasy. He ran behind Freddy Swain on the depth chart in week 1, and the Seahawks’ top WRs should be able to have their way against a depleted 49ers secondary that likely will be without Josh Norman this week. If you’re playing the showdown slate for this game, Eskridge does have some appeal with just a $200 price tag on DraftKings. The team did make an effort to get the ball in his hands in week 1, he’s got the wheels to be a home run threat, and Gerald Everett may miss this game and open up some opportunity for the other ancillary players in the offense. The 49ers rank a middling 16th in pass defense DVOA, but have been losing DBs each week to injury.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 4: @Chi.): St. Brown was already seeing very limited production in the first two weeks while he was playing about 60% of the snaps. That snap share dropped to just over 40% in week 3, and his production dropped to 1 catch for 2 yards on 1 target. He has a chance to see a handful of targets when the Lions play from behind, but he isn’t going to be as involved in closer games, and the Lions are just a 3-point underdog this week on the road in Chicago. Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus both appear to be ahead of him in the WR pecking order.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): In case you weren’t aware of it, Moore suffered a concussion against the Broncos last weekend and looks likely to miss this game. There is a chance that he has some sneaky upside if he’s able to get cleared. The Titans allow the 3rd-most WR points per game so far and Moore was targeted 6 times in the first 3 quarters last week before getting hurt. With that said, this Jets’ passing game isn’t one I want to put any faith in when it comes to fantasy outside of maybe Corey Davis.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Freiermuth made good on my claim that he had sneaky upside last week by turning 5 targets into 3 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown, good for a TE12 finish. The downside is that he played his lowest snap share of the season, and it looks like target hog Diontae Johnson has a good chance of returning to the lineup this week. Green Bay looks like a soft matchup for tight ends, allowing the 3rd-most TE points per game so far, but they’ve already faced two of the game’s bests at the position in TJ Hockenson and George Kittle. They did also allow 2 scores to Juwan Johnson in the opener, so there is hope for Freiermuth, but I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance if Diontae returns and the rookie continues to play behind Eric Ebron this week. Diontae and Najee Harris will see most of the shorter targets that could go Freiermuth’s way.
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): The Saints made Jones look bad last week, but he can’t dwell on that performance with Tom Brady and the Bucs coming to town on Sunday night. The Bucs are favored by 6.5 points in this one, and they’ve got one of the stoutest defensive fronts in the NFL. I don’t expect Damien Harris to have much success on the ground, and that means Jones may have to throw a bit more than usual. The Bucs have already allowed 300+ passing yards and multiple scores in each of their first 3 games this season. I don’t think Jones is going to throw for 300, but I like his chances of padding his stats in garbage time and posting his best fantasy game of the season. He has some sneaky upside for 2-QB formats this week.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): If Elijah Mitchell ends up being active for this week, disregard Sermon being listed here and feel free to ignore him this week. If Mitchell is out, however, don’t let last week’s usage and performance scare you off Sermon. Yes, it’s true that Sermon was out-snapped and out-produced by fullback Kyle Juszczyk on Sunday night. It’s also true that Juszczyk was healthy throughout the week of practice while the gameplan was installed for the week, and Sermon was in the concussion protocol. I’d expect Sermon to be much more involved in this game than he was last week if Mitchell can’t go. You can see what kind of matchup this is in the bit I wrote about Mitchell above. If the starting role is Sermon’s, he has RB2 upside for the week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): As we saw last week, Gainwell is going to have a role in the Eagles’ hurry-up offense, which we will likely see more of in the 2nd half this week. The Chiefs are more than a touchdown favorite but have struggled across the board defensively in the first 3 weeks. They’ve allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game so far and rank dead last in run defense DVOA. I think Miles Sanders has a great chance at a strong game as well, but Gainwell has some upside in deep leagues in this matchup.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): The best way the Jets are going to be able to keep pressure off Zach Wilson in this game is going to be to run the ball effectively. Carter handled 75% of the Jets’ running back rush attempts last week, and I’d look for them to make more of an effort to establish the run this week against a defense that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA thus far. Carter also has receiving skills that should pad his numbers a bit, but he has a shot at posting a top-30 week if the Jets can keep from being blown out early.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 4: @Den.): Bateman was activated off injured reserve this week, but he doesn’t get a soft landing in his debut. If Bateman manages to suit up this weekend, he’ll face off with a Denver defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10th-fewest WR points per game. I mention him as a player to stash this week if he hasn’t already been snatched up by someone else in your league. The Ravens have been throwing the ball at a higher rate than they have in the last couple seasons, and that could continue thanks to their makeshift backfield. Marquise Brown has been getting open effectively this year, but a few bad drops last week nearly cost the team the game. There is an opening for Bateman to work his way into the WR1 role in this offense before the season’s end. You can’t start him this week but make room for Bateman on your bench if he’s available.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): The Panthers traded away Dan Arnold this week, opening the door for Tremble to take on a more significant role in the offense. Ian Thomas has been the Panther TE that’s been on the field the most, but it’s Arnold who has seen two-thirds of the team TE targets come his way. That’s amounted to just 10 targets in 3 games, but Tremble should step into that role and have some TD dart throw appeal in DFS tournaments. He’s worth a stash in deeper TE-premium formats.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.