Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Week 16 is in the record books and with it most fantasy championships from this season are over, but for those of you with championships that extend through Week 17, we're back with rankings to help with the tough decisions that we're all faced with on a weekly basis in fantasy football. This week, quite a few players will not be in lineups or may see decreased snaps due to their teams already having playoff berths locked up so be especially conscious of which teams your players belong to and their specific situations. Devin Singletary, Anthony Miller, and Jonnu Smith are a few of the players that I like more than the average expert over at FantasyPros. Good luck!

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most folks, the fantasy season ended last week, but I know there are leagues out there that still hold their title games in week 17. Week 17 is a tough one to navigate for fantasy lineups. There are typically only a handful teams with anything to gain by winning. The keys to success are to identify those teams and identify the stud players who play for teams that have nothing to gain. If you can avoid those landmines you’ll have a much better shot of winning. I count 12 teams that potentially could improve their playoff position, and only half of those don’t need any help from other teams to do so. I’ll give you a quick rundown of which rookies have something to play for in case you have a championship this week, but most of the advice this week will have a decidedly DFS slant.  Let’s dive in…

Rookies to Start:

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): The Eagles are expecting Jordan Howard to return this week, but Sanders is likely to continue as the lead back. As the Eagles’ pass catching corps has become the walking wounded, Sanders has seen his receiving usage increase. In the past 4 weeks, he’s had at least 4 catches and 5 targets in each game, and he’s found the end zone through the air in 2 of them. Even if Howard manages to siphon off a decent chunk of Sanders’ rushing attempts, the passing game usage will keep Miles as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. The Giants surprisingly rank 8^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and Sanders is no worse than 3^rd in the Eagles’ current pass game pecking order. You’re banking on the upside if you use him in DFS lineups (I like him better for cash games than tournaments), but he should be fired up in season-long leagues.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 17: @Hou.): Brown’s lack of usage last week was a little alarming, but he still managed to put up 15.3 PPR points despite just one catch and one carry. He absolutely torched the Texans the last time he faced them (8-114-1 on 13 targets), and this week the Texans might not have anything to gain by winning. The Titans have everything to gain. A victory clinches them a spot in the playoffs. Brown should be heavily involved and can’t be left on your bench in season long leagues. The Texans rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be as keen to pay the $7,000 DraftKings price tag, but he should be a fine WR2 this week.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. SF): Metcalf managed to post a goose egg on just 1 target last week despite playing 98% of the offensive snaps in a game where Seattle threw 31 times. Don’t expect a repeat this week. Prior to week 16, DK had managed to post 11+ PPR points in 6 of the previous 7 games, and I like his odds to get back on track this week. Since the start of week 9, the 49ers have allowed 22.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (only the Dolphins and Cardinals have allowed more than that per game on the year), and they’ve given up 15+ points in half PPR scoring to 4 wide receivers in the past 5 weeks (they allowed just 3 to reach 15 before that). Their elite defense has shown cracks, and I think Metcalf exploits them this weekend. He posted 6 catches for 70 yards on 10 targets in the first meeting with San Francisco, and he should be a solid WR3 in the rematch. Metcalf is a sneaky option in DFS showdown slates for the Sunday night game.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): This will be a must win game for the Eagles, but their pass defense has been an issue for much of the year. Philly has coughed up multiple passing scores in 3 of their last 4 games, and Jones flourished in his return to the lineup last Sunday as the overall QB1 for the week. Jones has thrown for multiple TDs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and 4+ in three of his last 6. Jones has been a solid starting option when his weapons are healthy and he has a real chance to be a QB1 again this week, although repeating as the QB1 seems highly unlikely.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders still have a shot at the playoffs with a win and a lot of help this weekend, but the Broncos have some positive momentum of their own and aren’t likely to roll over for Oakland. The Raiders have been abysmal defending the pass, allowing the 4^th-most QB points per game and allowing the 2^nd-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. Lock has played well through 4 starts outside of one poor performance against the Chiefs, and he is in a great spot for a strong game to close his rookie year. Lamar Jackson won’t play this week, and several other fantasy QBs like Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins will be unplayable due to the chance they won’t play for long. Lock will be a high-end QB2 option with the upside for more and is reasonably priced on DraftKings at $5,800.

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Leonard Fournette has been downgraded to doubtful for this week, and Armstead has been his handcuff all year. The Colts rank 21^st in run defense DVOA and Jacksonville is one of the few teams that doesn’t employ a committee. It’s a rare occurrence that you can get a locked-in starting running back for $4,400 on DraftKings. Armstead has shown an ability to catch the ball, so he won’t be limited to just rushing output. The Jaguars have been bad as a team of late, but Armstead has plenty of appeal in DFS lineups at that price tag.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): With the Ravens locked into the AFC’s top seed, they have nothing to gain with a win in week 17. Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram will be sitting out entirely, and I would expect several other starters to not play the full game. The Steelers will be without James Conner again, so Snell will be thrust back into the early down grinder role once more. Baltimore has been stingy against the pass but ranks a middling 17^th in run defense DVOA. Snell’s lack of pass catching prowess hurts his fantasy upside, but he should be viewed as a reasonable RB3/flex play this week. He also costs just $4,500 on DraftKings.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Slayton was targeted just 3 times in week 15 against the Dolphins, then was sidelined by injury last week before recording his first catch in a game where Daniel Jones threw 5 touchdown passes. Slayton is on track to return this week and the Giants don’t really have reason to hold him back as they try to play spoiler to the Eagles. Philly has allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game, and Slayton may be the squeaky wheel that gets the grease this week. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure that he plays and that he won’t be limited by the knee injury, but Slayton remains in play as a WR3 option this week. His price tag of $4,900 on DraftKings is really tempting in both cash games and DFS tournaments.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 17: @Sea.): The 49ers will be pulling out all of the stops to try and win this game. A victory means a week off, and a loss means a trip to Dallas or Philadelphia next weekend. The Seahawks are better attacked on the ground than through the air, ranking 26^th in run defense DVOA and 14^th in pass defense DVOA. Samuel has been productive with 6 games of 12 or more PPR points in his last 7, but his volume has been inconsistent. He’s averaged just 4.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks. He’s managed to be productive with sporadic rushing attempts (7-89-1 in the past 4 weeks), but he’ll have to continue making good on limited opportunities to have a big day this week. He’s in play as a borderline WR3 option.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Johnson has managed to produce despite the game of musical quarterbacks being played between Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, He’s put up at least 60 yards and been targeted 7+ times in each of the last 3 games, and the Ravens are likely to play their starters less than a full complement of snaps. Even JuJu’s return hasn’t slowed Johnson down. He’ll have Hodges throwing him the ball this week, but that shouldn’t keep him from posting a 4-60 type of line in this one, and possibly more.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders allow the 8^th-most TE points per game. Fant’s snap count has dropped quite a bit with Jeff Heuerman back at full strength, but Fant has been the one getting the more useful fantasy targets. He’s still risky for regular lineups, but he’s an interesting in DFS lineups at just $3,600 on DraftKings and in a plus matchup.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 17: @LAR): It’s looking more and more likely that Murray is going to be sidelined this week with a hamstring injury and it will be Brett Hundley getting the nod instead. Even if Murray plays, the first meeting with the Rams was one of his worst games of the season and they rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Only a late rushing TD got him to double-digit fantasy points in that first meeting. Hundley wouldn’t be a great option this week either.

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Minshew has had a number of plus matchups since getting back under center, but he’s failed to produce meaningful fantasy games. In the last 4 weeks he’s averaged 173 yards passing and 15.5 rushing yards per game and totaled just 5 touchdowns. The Jags are basically phoning it in to close out the year, and you can’t bank on them getting out of that funk in the season’s final week. This game is likely to feature a lot of Ryquell Armstead and Marlon Mack.

QB Will Grier, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. NO): Grier’s first NFL start was an unmitigated disaster against a below average pass defense. The offense managed to score just 6 points as Grier threw 3 interceptions and took 5 sacks. More than 50% of his passing yards went to Christian McCaffrey and he’s not going to have DJ Moore on the field this week. The Saints rank 13^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s all shaping up to be another rough week for Grier.

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Don’t get cute with Hodges. In his last 2 appearances he’s thrown 1 touchdown against 6 interceptions. The Ravens’ secondary might not be playing at full strength, but that’s not a reason to get crazy and consider Hodges in any format.

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): It’s likely you weren’t considering Blough in any format, and that is the correct approach. Blough has thrown just 2 touchdowns in the last 3 and a half games, and Green Bay ranks 11^th in pass defense DVOA. There is no reason to consider Blough in week 17. It may wind up as his final career start.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): We’ve seen Monty come up small in big opportunities, and this week he faces a tough matchup. The Vikings rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. Montgomery has just been too consistently mediocre from a fantasy perspective to use him this week unless you’re desperate. Monty’s best hope is that Minnesota goes to their backup defense early on and he gets in the end zone. I’m not willing to count on that even at a price tag of just $5,100 on DraftKings.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): The Bills have absolutely nothing to gain from winning this weekend. They’re locked into the 5^th seed in the AFC playoffs. They have no incentive to put a critical player like Singletary in harm’s way. If he does get the start, I would be stunned if he plays into the second half. Josh Allen is also likely to have a short day if he plays at all. TJ Yeldon is the running back I’d expect to have the best fantasy day for Buffalo. His ability as a pass catcher gives him the edge over Frank Gore, especially with the Jets being stout against the run. New York ranks second in run defense DVOA.

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 17: @NE): The Patriots actually care about winning this game, and they’ve allowed the fewest RB PPR points per game. Laird and Gaskin have played a much more even split of the backfield snaps in the last two weeks, making both untrustworthy for fantasy purposes. If I had to pick one it would be Laird, but both are bad fantasy plays this week.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): With the 6^th seed already etched in stone for Minnesota, I’d expect Mike Boone and CJ Ham to handle most of the running back duties against Chicago. Mattison and Dalvin Cook might both end up inactive again. Even if they don’t, I wouldn’t expect either one to see a carry in the 2^nd half. The Bears will be playing for pride and for a .500 season, and despite their struggles still have one of the better defenses in the league. Boone is the option I’d look at if considering a cheap DFS play in this backfield.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Brown has a questionable tag this week, and I can’t imagine he plays more than a few series even if he is active. The Ravens have nothing to gain by winning, so there shouldn’t be a lot of Brown, Mark Andrews or Willie Snead. There certainly won’t be enough of Brown to trust in fantasy lineups. Keep him sidelined.

WR N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): I’d like Meyers quite a bit this week if the Pats had already clinched a bye in the first round, but they haven’t. The Patriots need to win this week to secure the bye, and it’s been a guessing game in recent weeks as to which receivers will get the playing time. Julian Edelman is the only receiver on the team who has played 60% of the snaps or more 3 times in the last 4 games. Sanu seems to be back to a full-time role, but it always feels like that could change at a moment’s notice. The Dolphins are a great matchup for any offense to face, but there isn’t a lot of evidence pointing to Harry or Meyers being a good option this week.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): I put my faith in JJ last week, and after posting 2-39 on the game’s opening drive he wasn’t targeted again. You’d think at some point the Eagles will have to start utilizing him more as the depth chart thins out, especially in a must-win game like this one. Zach Ertz has been ruled out for this game, so it’ll be Greg Ward, Dallas Goedert and the running backs aside from JJAW. The Giants are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so there is upside in JJ at his meager $3,700 price tag on DraftKings, but I’ve been intrigued by him before and been burned. He’s not a player I’ll be taking a flyer on this week.

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Terry McLaurin may have been ruled out for this week already, but that won’t change the fact that Harmon is mainly a low-upside PPR option who just posted his best career game at 10.8 PPR points. Don’t buy in to upside for Harmon that just isn’t there for him right now. Dallas allows the 6^th-fewest WR PPR points per game. You should probably avoid Harmon this week.

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): Johnson is likely to play a lot this week, but we’ve seen him do that with Thielen out and he only mustered sporadic production. The Bears allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Johnson hasn’t reached 50 yards in any game all season. Don’t think of him as an upside DFS option just because he’s cheap and Diggs & Thielen are unlikely to play much.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Smith bounced back in a big way last weekend with 2 touchdowns against Washington, but he is unlikely to have a strong follow up. The Eagles have allowed just 3 tight ends to reach 9 PPR points all season long, and just one since week 4. Philly has struggled to contain wide receivers but has been one of the best teams in the league at stopping the tight end position. I’d look elsewhere for upside DFS tight ends this week.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Knox could get a boost from any extended Matt Barkley playing time. He caught 2 passes for 37 yards among Barkley’s 16 pass attempts in week 4. He costs just $2,700 on DraftKings, but the Jets allow the 4^th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. There are higher upside options to chase.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): With Mark Ingram sitting out, it’ll be Gus Edwards and Hill handling most of the rushing attempts. This should be the first real extended look we get at Hill all year. Hill posted 51 yards and a touchdown on 6 touches last week and should see his way to double-digit touches in this one. The Steelers boast a solid defense, but Hill’s speed makes him a home run threat at just about any time. He’s an inexpensive $4,600 on DraftKings. I’d only be thinking of him as an upside DFS tournament play.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 17: vs. Was.): Pollard has been a non-factor in most games where the Cowboys are trailing or playing close, but they’re a 12-point favorite this week against a Washington defense that allows the 3^rd-most RB PPR points per game. This is a prime spot for Pollard to have a big game and he costs just $4,000 on DraftKings. There’s a low floor, as evidenced by his negative point performance last week, but he’s a very interesting DFS Tournament play.

WR Steven Sims, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): The matchup isn’t ideal, as I laid out with Kelvin Harmon above, but Sims has been heavily involved with 21 targets and 3 touchdowns in the last 2 weeks, and his DFS price hasn’t caught up with his production yet. With McLaurin out he should see close to double-digit targets again, and he’s a small, speedy receiver who should see a couple deep targets from Case Keenum. He’s not exactly a safe play, but he has a great chance to outproduce his $4,700 price tag on DraftKings.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Like Justice Hill, Boykin should get a chance to shine as the guys ahead of him on the depth chart get a light week to keep them healthy for the playoffs. Boykin has turned 3 of his 13 catches on the year into touchdowns, and he costs just the minimum on DraftKings. He’s a TD dart throw for DFS tournaments with the upside to be more. With the Steelers favored by a couple points, the Ravens may throw a little more than they typically do.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): The majority of the practice snaps this week for Minnesota tight ends have gone to backups Smith and Tyler Conklin. I’d be surprised if Kyle Rudolph doesn’t play a diminished role with nothing at stake for the Vikings, and the Bears allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. Smith costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and may very well lead the Vikings in receiving this week. He’s a worthwhile option in DFS tournaments.

That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Folks, this is what we have been preparing for!

We have reached the last week of the NFL season, and the last week of the Confidence Pool. If you have been following along with my picks, you should be in pretty good shape right now and just need one more solid week to clinch a win in your season-long pool. But hey, might as well throw in a weekly payout on top of that as well, right?

Normally, Week 17 is always a tricky one. With only one week to go, playoff spots and seeds are almost entirely figured out already, which means that star players end up getting a Sunday off. Obviously, this adds a degree of difficulty when making your Confidence Pool picks.

Not this year!

Heading into the final week of the season it seems like only 2 or 3 of the 12 playoff seeds have been determined. No need to worry about whether Tom Brady will be in all game – he will. Will Patrick Mahomes be under center from start to finish in KC? Absolutely!

It has been another great football season! Thank you all for following along all year!

We’ll see you in September!

WEEK 17 – HERE WE GO!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

16 – NEW ENGLAND over Miami – I’m pretty sure the Patriots could play their practice squad and still win this one.

15 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Chargers – This may be the last game with the Chargers as we know them – I see big changes ahead.

14 – MINNESOTA over Chicago – Take a deep breath, Bears fans…its almost over!

13 – DALLAS over Washington – The Cowboys should be able to pull out an easy win to end the year … buuuuut …

12 – Philadelphia over NEW YORK GIANTS – …the Eagles will still win their game and win the NFC East.

11 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – After revamping The Curse of the Super Bowl loser, the Rams appear to be stuck in salary cap hell for the next few years, so this may be the last taste of victory they have for a while!

10 – New Orleans over CAROLINA – It’s a close call with the Bears, but I think the Panthers, with everything they have gone through, may be the most disappointing team this year.

9 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – The division is wrapped up, but the Texans are still playing for the 3 seed.

8 – SEATTLE over San Francisco – The 9ers were one of the last teams to lose a game this year, and now they may not even win their division.

7 – Green Bay over DETROIT – The Packers are still playing for the 1 seed in the NFC, that’s bad news for the Lions.

6 – BUFFALO over New York Jets – The Bills are set at the 5 seed in the AFC, but still should be able to pull one out against the Jets.

5 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – Baltimore is in rest mode, but the allure of knocking the Steelers out of the playoffs is still something for them to play for.

4 – Oakland over DENVER – It’s a crazy scenario, but my BOLD PREDICTION to end the 2019 season is that THE RAIDERS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR.

3 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – One more chance for the Falcons to make me look like an idiot this year.

2 – Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE – It’s funny that both these teams are out of playoff contention, but the outcome still matters to the Raiders playoff hopes!

1 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – Now that they have locked up the first pick in the draft, the Bengals can win a game without sacrificing their future.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! What a wild ride the 2020 season has been. The calendar has turned to 2021, and most fantasy leagues this season are now complete, but there is another week of NFL regular season football to go. While most of us know better than to play in leagues with a week 17 championship game, there are those leagues that exist, so while this week’s Rookie Report will be a little more slanted toward DFS options, I wanted to provide some insight about the rookies for those still playing for a title. Week 17 is all about motivation. What teams still have something to play for? Which teams will be phoning it in for the week? Knowing the answers to those questions will help you identify players who could have big final weeks and those who will disappoint. With that in mind, let’s dive into week 17…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 17: @KC, DrafKings main slate price: $7,100): Typically the Chiefs wouldn’t be a great matchup for a QB, but this is a game that Kansas City will just be trying to survive healthy. They’ve already clinched a playoff bye. Look for the Chargers to let Justin Herbert air it out a bit in his final regular-season game as a rookie with the Chiefs sitting the majority of their starters. Herbert has thrown for over 250 yards in all but 3 starts this season, and I fully expect him to keep that number at 3 this week, even with Keenan Allen sidelined again. Herbert should be a safe top-10 QB again this week.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 17: vs. Jax., DK main slate price: $7,400): The Colts need to win this game AND have at least one other 10-5 AFC team lose in order to make the playoffs, so look for them to ride their best players to ensure they hold up their end. Over the last month, that means Taylor. JT has averaged 117 scrimmage yards and a touchdown and a half per game over the past 4 weeks, and this week he faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most RB rushing yards. The Jaguars have allowed at least 1 back to reach 89 yards on the ground in 5 of their past 6 games, and one over 80 scrimmage yards in all 6. Taylor should have his way in this one for as long as the game is competitive. Triple-digit yards and multiple TDs is the ceiling for Taylor in this one, but he should be a safe bet for 15+ fantasy points in just about all formats this week.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin., DK main slate price: $6,700): The Ravens come into this week with both Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards questionable to suit up. If both sit, Dobbins may get a crack at being a workhorse back against a defense that ranks 20^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Justice Hill would likely get some change of pace work, but it would be Dobbins’ show until the game got out of hand. A more likely scenario is that Ingram is able to play (he logged a full practice on Friday), but even in that scenario, I’d expect Dobbins to make a push for a top-10 week. He’s averaged 67 rushing yards per game during his current 5-game touchdown streak, and he should have no trouble reaching 70+ and a score again in this one. He should be very safe in DFS cash games, even if he lacks the ceiling you typically look for in tournaments. If Edwards and Ingram both sit, that ceiling is there.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 17: @Phi., DK SNF showdown price: $9,000): Gibson returned from his turf toe injury last week and looked sharp, tallying 61 rushing yards on just 10 carries. This week he faces an Eagles team that will be without several defensive starters, including Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett, and Duke Riley, who all start in the front 7. With that same trio sidelined last week (Cox played 7 snaps while the other 2 were out), Zeke Elliott looked like his old self and ran for 105 yards. It was just Elliott’s second 100-yard day of the year. Washington can clinch a division title with a win in this game, so they should be going full tilt while the Eagles just try to get through the game. Gibson is likely in line for a big game here and should be a staple in any showdown lineups for Sunday night, and would be a good choice for captain.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 17: @Det, DK main slate price: $7,600): Jefferson should be able to put on one final show for the season on Sunday. The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook, so they may throw a little more than usual, and the Lions have looked like they’ve thrown in the towel on the season in recent weeks. Detroit ranks dead last in pass-defense, DVOA, and has allowed the most WR points per game. In the past 3 weeks, the Lions have allowed at least one 100-yard wide receiver each week and given up 8 receiving TDs to opposing wideouts in that span. Jefferson and teammate Adam Thielen should both be great plays for DFS in week 17.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF showdown price: $11,400): Hurts has taken the starting job in Philly and run with it in the last few weeks. Turnovers hurt him in a bad loss to the Cowboys a week ago, but in his 3 starts he’s finished as the QB10, QB1, and QB16. This week he faces a Washington defense that has been one of the stingiest against the pass in the league and needs this win to clinch the division title. In their last 13 games, Washington has allowed just 4 QBs to throw for more than 220 yards, so Hurts will be hard-pressed to put up a 3^rd-straight 300-yard passing game, but he should still have a stable rushing floor. The rookie has run for 60+ yards in all 3 of his starts, and Washington has allowed 4 different QBs to run for 50+ this season. With Miles Sanders sidelined, even more of the rushing load should fall on Hurts. He’s a bit pricey for the showdown slate Sunday night but should be treated as a low-end QB1 for any teams that have championships this week.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Min., DK main slate price: $6,300): The Lions appeared to have thrown in the towel on the 2020 season in recent weeks, but if that were truly the case Matt Stafford wouldn’t be playing through injury and starting Sunday. This game still has the potential to get out of hand with how bad the Detroit defense has been, but on paper, it should be a great matchup for Swift. Minnesota ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 6^th-most RB points per game. Swift appears to have his injury issues behind him after he played about two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of the past two weeks and saw a total of 33 touches in those games. I’d expect similar usage in this one, and against this defense, that means a top-10 RB week could be in the offing. There is risk in betting on a Detroit player since it remains to be seen how motivated the Lions will be to win this game, but if you have him in a championship game he should probably be in your lineup.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. Ari., DK main slate price: $6,100): Akers was held out of practice for much of the week with a sprained ankle and is questionable for Sunday’s tilt with the Cardinals, but I’d expect him to be heavily involved if he’s able to play. The Rams will be without Jared Goff and will likely lean on the run more than usual, and Akers has shown himself in recent weeks to be the best option in this backfield. The Cardinals allow the 11^th-most RB points per game, and just last week were shredded by Jeff Wilson, Jr. to the tune of 183 rushing yards. Akers himself tallied 94 scrimmage yards and a score in the first meeting with Arizona. Something in that same ballpark would be a successful day for Akers in this one, but if he’s close to 100% he may be able to do even more. Keep a close eye on the injury updates here.

RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. NO, DK main slate price: $4,000): Smith has been seeing extended playing time in recent weeks, averaging 36 scrimmage yards on 6 touches per game in the last 3 weeks, and Mike Davis is unlikely to play this week. The matchup isn’t a good one, with New Orleans allowing the fewest RB points per game, but in the last 3 weeks, they’ve let 4 different backs top 60 rushing yards and given up 5 running back scores in that span. Smith isn’t in the same class as the backs who have been running well against the Saints (CEH, Dalvin, Lev Bell, and Miles Sanders), but he’ll have plenty of opportunity with the Panthers’ backfield shorthanded. Smith should see 15+ touches, and his role as the default workhorse back isn’t built into his DFS price tag. He should return more than his cost in cash games and is a reasonable option for limited slate tournaments. He is also probably on the waiver wire if you have a championship game and need to replace a sidelined starter like Miles Sanders or Dalvin Cook. With the Saints missing all of their running backs, the Panthers may hang around in this game for a while and keep the ball going to Smith.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. Mia., DK main slate price: $4,600): Moss is an interesting case for this week. The Bills don’t have a reason to aggressively try to win this game. I’d expect Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs to be done after the first series or two of the day, and several other key players may play limited snaps as well. While that could mean limited snaps for Moss and Devin Singletary, I’m not sure how comfortable the Bills will be giving all of the backfield work to 32-year-old Taiwan Jones, and with Allen off the field the quarterback won’t be vulturing goal-line carries from Moss. The Dolphins rank just 23^rd in run defense DVOA, so there is some upside for Moss if he does play close to his normal share of the snaps, but the risk of a shortened day for him is real.  

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. LV, DK main slate price: $4,200): Jeudy has caught a lot of flack from the fantasy world and Broncos’ fans after dropping 6 passes in last week’s loss to the Chargers. The thing that I take away from that game is that he was targeted 15 times. Targets are earned, and Jeudy had to be getting open a lot to see that many passes in his direction. We’ve consistently seen the Steelers go back to Diontae Johnson despite drops because he’s consistently able to get separation. This week Jeudy faces a Raiders defense that ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. The corner he should match up with most often is rookie Damon Arnette, who has allowed an 80% completion percentage and nearly 10 yards per target into his coverage. I expect the Raiders offense to do enough to keep Denver throwing, and for Jeudy to be eager to make last week a distant memory. The rookie has some serious upside in this matchup that I expect him to make good on. It would take some balls to play him after his dropsies last week, but I think those that do so will be rewarded.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 17: @NYG, DK main slate price: $5,200): Dallas is one of the teams that has every reason to play to win in week 17. A victory by the Cowboys and a loss by Washington on Sunday night would give Dallas the division title, so expect them to pull out all the stops. The Dallas offense has been coming together in recent weeks. Their two best yardage games without Dak Prescott at QB were in the last 2 weeks, and Lamb has been more consistent in recent weeks as well. He’s averaged 12.4 PPR points per game in the last 4 weeks, and this week gets a favorable individual matchup against slot corner Darnay Holmes. Amari Cooper will be shadowed by James Bradberry, and that should free up some extra targets for Lamb and Michael Gallup. Lamb went for 8 catches and 124 yards in the first meeting with the G-Men, albeit with Dak at QB. This is a week where Lamb has a solid chance to finish above that 4-40 floor that we’ve seen from him since Prescott went down.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 17: @Ind., DK main slate price: $4,200): The Jaguars have already ruled out DJ Chark, James Robinson, and Collin Johnson for this week, so Shenault should be heavily featured in a matchup where the team should be playing from behind and throwing a lot. Shenault already leads the team in targets from Mike Glennon with 21 and should be a good bet for 6+ targets again this week. The Colts have been a tougher pass defense, ranking 7^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game and given up 5 receiver scores in the past 3 weeks. Shenault is the best bet of the Jaguar receivers to find the end zone this week.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. Mia., DK main slate price: $3,600): The Bills have already clinched the 2^nd or 3^rd seed in the AFC, and it seems likely that they’ll rest their starters for the majority of this game. They haven’t officially announced it, but after clinching the division in week 16 last season the Bills sat most of their starters and played Josh Allen for just 7 snaps in week 17. Davis could serve as the de facto WR1 for much of this game. Even with Matt Barkley at QB for most of the game, it shouldn’t be hard for Davis to outproduce his price tag if the other receivers sit as expected. The Dolphins rank a solid 6^th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 16^th-most WR points per game and given up over 100 receiving yards to Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers in the past 2 weeks. I’d be at least a little surprised if Davis doesn’t lead the Bills in receiving yards this week.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. Bal., DK main slate price: $5,000): Higgins finally posted a big day without Joe Burrow at QB last week, but it came against the pathetic Texans’ secondary. This week’s matchup is much tougher against Baltimore, and Higgins is questionable with a hamstring issue, so keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering him. If he does play, the volume should be there for him again. Higgins has averaged 7 targets per game since Burrow went down with an injury. The most likely outcome for Higgins this week would be another floor game in the ballpark of 50 yards, but the volume gives him some upside. Baltimore has allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 65+ receiving yards to 4 different receivers in the last 4 weeks.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 17: @Cle., DK main slate price: $5,700): Claypool is a bit of a roll of the dice this week with Mason Rudolph under center and the playing time for the rest of the Steelers’ starters still up in the air. Diontae Johnson is the receiver most likely to sit in this one, so Claypool should still be involved. Cleveland has been vulnerable to opposing receivers, allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game, but it remains to be seen if Rudolph will be able to help these receivers take advantage. The Steelers are a 9-point underdog, so they should be throwing. Claypool’s upside is going to come from catching a long ball or getting in the end zone, and for what it’s worth, Rudolph did complete 11 passes of 30+ yards last season in 10 games. I’d probably look elsewhere for most lineups this week, but if you want to try your hand at the showdown slate, Claypool and James Washington are the two Steelers I think are most likely to have a nice game. Washington was a college teammate of Rudolph and is $4,800 cheaper than Claypool in the showdown format.

Upside DFS Sleepers:

RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 17: @Hou., DK main slate price: $4,000): The Titans need to win this week to secure the AFC South title, but this one has the chance to get out of hand. The Texans’ defense made the Bengals look unstoppable last weekend to the tune of 540 offensive yards. Derrick Henry should run through this defense like a hot knife through butter, and that could lead to Evans getting some garbage time run in the 2^nd half. The last time the Titans had garbage time Evans posted 57 scrimmage yards and a TD against the Lions. The Texans allow the most running back points per game, so any extended playing time for Evans could have a nice upside.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. Ari., DK main slate price: $3,000): The Rams lost Cooper Kupp to the COVID list this week, and Jefferson should be the next man up in the slot for them. They need to win this week against Arizona to make sure they make the playoffs. It seems logical that the Rams would use more 2-tight end sets with Tyler Higbee & Gerald Everett, but the game script could force them into more WR-heavy formations. The Rams will be without starting QB Jared Goff, so keeping pace with the Cardinals may be a bit tougher in this one. Jefferson likely gets a lot of practice work with Wolford on the 2^nd team and seems a good bet to see at least a handful of targets in this one. Jefferson costs the minimum on DraftKings and faces a middling defense against WRs.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 17: vs. Pit., DK main slate price: $3,500): Before last week’s trip to the COVID list, DPJ had been on quite a roll with 221 receiving yards in the 3 games prior. He’s topped 50 yards in all 4 games where he’s played at least 50% of the offensive snaps, and it looks like the Steelers will be resting several of their key players in this game. There is a great opportunity here for Peoples-Jones to get loose for another big play or 2. There is a low floor here since DPJ hasn’t had more than 5 targets or 3 catches in a game, so he’s a better option in a DFS tournament than in cash games or in any championship matchups.

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 17: @Car., DK main slate price: $3,200): The shorthanded Saints will be without receivers Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith again this week, but will also be without most of their running backs. They aren’t going to win this game simply by pounding the rock with Ty Montgomery, so there should be a bit more passing volume than we saw last week when they leaned on Alvin Kamara for a half-dozen touchdowns. Juwan Johnson had seen a spike in recent playing time with the injuries ahead of him, but while playing 90 offensive snaps over the past 4 weeks he’s managed just 2 catches for 30 yards on 6 targets. Callaway returned from IR last week and immediately played about twice as many snaps as Johnson (42 to 23) and totaled 3-26 on 4 targets. Callaway is the guy who is going to benefit from the increased passing volume, and he costs $200 less than Johnson on the main slate this week. There isn’t a huge ceiling for Callaway, but if the Saints substitute the short passing game for the run game, there could be 6+ targets there for Marquez this week.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin., DK main slate price: $3,000): Willie Snead is questionable for the Ravens in what will be a must-win game in Cincy, and Duvernay is the best suited of the other receivers to man the slot. If Snead sits, Duvernay should get some chances to showcase his track-star speed against a defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most 20+ yard completions on the year. There is some risk here since Dez Bryant and Miles Boykin have played ahead of Duvernay in recent weeks, so I would prefer Devin as more of a dart throw in the showdown slate for this game, where his price tag is just $1,000, rather than a bigger tournament.

WR Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF showdown price: $1,600): Watkins has shown a penchant for coming up with splash plays in his limited snaps with Jalen Hurts at QB. He took a screen pass for a 32-yard score against the Cardinals and hauled in a 43-yard grab a week ago in Dallas. Watkins is questionable for this week, but several pass catchers have already been ruled out for week 17 – Dallas Goedert, DeSean Jackson and Richard Rodgers. If Watkins plays, there could be some increased opportunity for him, and his price tag is more than reasonable for the showdown slate Sunday night. It would only take one splash TD play to make him worth that cost.

Rookies to Sit (Or avoid in DFS):

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $5,100): Tua has thrown for fewer than 100 yards and been pulled in each of his last two games away from Miami. He likely won’t get pulled again this week as coach Brian Flores won’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick as a fallback option in this game. The bearded backup was placed on the COVID list this week. I’d still expect the Dolphins to lean on the run game unless the game script forces their hand. They’ll need to win this one to ensure they make the playoffs, and Buffalo has been locked in as a pass defense, allowing fewer than 360 total passing yards in the last 3 weeks. I’d steer clear of Tua in this one.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $4,400): With the return of Myles Gaskin last week, Ahmed handled just 6 carries and saw 1 target against the Raiders. With a playoff berth on the line this week, it should be the Gaskin show again unless the game gets out of hand. If Buffalo rests their starters and Miami pulls away, it could be a combination of Ahmed and Breida carrying the ball down the stretch. I don’t see a huge ceiling for Ahmed unless Gaskin gets hurt early.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 17: @Chi., DK main slate price: $4,900): Don’t fall in love with the performance you saw last week. Green Bay gets Jamaal Williams back this week, which will send Dillon back to the bench, and they face a much less generous run defense. The Bears rank 4^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Atl., DK main slate price: $4,400): A Bucs win this week ensures that they’ll face the NFC East’s sub-.500 champ in their first playoff game, so they’ll treat this like a game they want to win. Last week was the first time all year that Vaughn played more than 25% of the offensive snaps, and it came in a lopsided blowout with Ronald Jones out. Jones returns this week, so even a blowout might not result in a ton of snaps for Vaughn in week 17.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 17: @Cle., DK main slate price: $4,000): The Steelers will be resting starters since they’re locked into the 2^nd or 3^rd seed in the AFC, so James Conner may not play this week. In the last 3 games that Conner sat this season, it was Benny Snell who carried the load. McFarland played a total of just 32 offensive snaps in those games, seeing 8 carries and 3 targets. I’d expect more of the same here if Conner sits.

RB Tony Jones, Jr., NO (Wk. 17: @Car., DK showdown price: $200): Jones isn’t even available for the main slate on DraftKings, but he is expected to be called up from the practice squad Sunday with all of the New Orleans running backs sidelined on the COVID list. Don’t fall for his $200 price tag if you’re playing the showdown slate for this game. I’d expect the short-yardage back to be Taysom Hill, and for Ty Montgomery to do his best to fill in for Alvin Kamara. The Saints are still in play for the NFC’s playoff bye, so they won’t just phone this game in. I’d be surprised if Jones gets more than a few carries in this one.

RB Jason Huntley, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF Showdown price: $200): I know, $200 is basically free on the showdown slate, and Huntley should see at least some opportunity with Miles Sanders sidelined, but Huntley hasn’t been active in weeks. He still has Boston Scott, Corey Clement, and Jordan Howard ahead of him on the depth chart. It would be a positive week for Huntley if he just gets on the field for a few touches.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF Showdown price: $6,200): Reagor has essentially served as the Eagles’ WR1 in terms of targets, but Quez Watkins’ 57 yards last week is more than Reagor has put up in any game this season. Reagor costs $4,600 more than Watkins on the showdown slate. Washington allows the 4^th-fewest WR points per game. Don’t pay up for Reagor expecting a big game this week, but I do think he has the talent to take a step forward next season.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. GB, DK main slate price: $4,100): Mooney has found the end zone in two of the last 3 games, but if you roll him out there in a championship game or DFS lineups this week you’re counting on him finding the end zone again. Green Bay has allowed just 1 WR touchdown in their last 4 games combined. Volume has been there for Mooney in several games this year (5 games with 7+ targets), but he’s averaged just 4 catches for 41 yards in those games. He’s topped 50 scrimmage yards just twice all season.

WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 17: vs. Jax., DK main slate price: $4,100): Pittman gets a plus matchup against a miserable Jaguars defense this week, but he’s fallen behind Zach Pascal and now sits at 3^rd in the target pecking order for the Colts. Indy is favored by 14 points this week, so they likely won’t throw much in the second half. That limited volume makes Pittman a bad bet as a dart throw.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 17: @Den., DK main slate price: $3,600): This may look like a good spot for Ruggs to make a couple of splash plays in a matchup against a team that is missing all of its top-3 cornerbacks, but it’s not a wager I’d make. The Broncos have been this shorthanded at CB for 3 games now, and have allowed just 2 completions for 30+ yards in those games, and the corner that Ruggs will match up with most (De’Vante Bausby) runs a 4.35-second 40-yard dash. Ruggs isn’t going to beat you with volume -he has no more than 3 receptions in any game this year – and it doesn’t look like a great bet that he gets a big play this week.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 17: @NE, DK main slate price: $3,000): Mims has played 4 games this year with Sam Darnold at QB and Jamison Crowder on the field. In those games, he’s totaled 17 targets, 9 catches, and 125 yards. The Pats allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. This doesn’t strike me as a good opportunity to bet on a big game from the rookie.

WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $3,500): The Dolphins should be getting healthier this week, as DeVante Parker could return from a hamstring injury, and Bowden has averaged fewer than 50 scrimmage yards per game in the last 4 weeks despite seeing significant usage in that span (nearly 6 targets and 1 rush attempt per game).

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Min., DK main slate price: $3,000): The Lions still will be missing Kenny Golladay yet again this weekend, but that hasn’t resulted in Cephus having an expanded role this year. Quintez hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in any game this year that wasn’t against the Bears. There’s also the risk that Detroit pulls Matt Stafford if he takes a few hits in this one. There is an upside for next season with Golladay and Marvin Jones, Jr. each hitting free agency this offseason, but there isn’t much to get excited about here for week 17.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Atl., DK main slate price: $3,200): The Bucs need to win this game to make sure they don’t face off with the Saints, Packers or Seahawks next weekend, and that means very limited snaps for Johnson, as usual, barring a blowout win.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. GB, DK main slate price: $3,000): Kmet has been a popular name in recent weeks as he’s been playing the vast majority of the Bears’ offensive snaps and been targeted 6+ times in 3 of the last 4 games. He’s also been handily out-produced by teammate Jimmy Graham in that span and faces a defense this week that allows the 4^th-fewest TE points per game. He’s also still questionable to even play in this one. In his best receiving game of the year so far Kmet finished with just 45 yards. I don’t have confidence that he bests that in week 17.

That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully, you’ve gotten some use out of this column throughout the year in figuring out what to do with the rookies on your fantasy teams. Make sure to keep an eye out for any updates throughout the week and up to kickoff. There could be some surprise benchings/inactive players for teams with nothing to play for this week. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I’ll be back next season to help you navigate your way through a new crop of rookies. I look forward to filling you all in on Travis Etienne, Kyle Pitts, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Fields each week. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.