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13 out of 16 games correct last week is a great way to start the final stretch of the confidence pool season. Let’s keep the momentum going!

Week 16! HERE WE GO!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – New England over NEW YORK JETS – In a week where road favorites dominate, none can give you more confidence than the Pats taking care of their lowly rivals.

15 – MIAMI over Minnesota – The Vikings, namely Teddy Bridgewater, are starting to show signs of life. But the Dolphins are still fighting for their playoff lives and won’t let this win get by them.

14 – Green Bay over TAMPA BAY – Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have a lot of frustrations to take out on the Bucs this week if they want to prove they are still the team to beat.

13 – ST. LOUIS over New York Giants – The Rams have shown signs of life, which is a lot more than can be said for the Giants this year.

12 – Philadelphia over WASHINGTON – RGIII is back under center…which makes it easy to put the Eagles on a line this high on the road.

11 – CAROLINA over Cleveland – Carolina has been a disappointment this year. Lucky for them the Browns decided to end all playoff hopes when they decided to go with Johnny Manziel.

10 – PITTSBURGH over Kansas City – The Steelers are quietly becoming a team to keep an eye on in the AFC. If they can contain Jamaal Charles they should cruise in this one.

9 – NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta – A big divisional game against two bad teams. It’s in New Orleans so it’s pretty easy to pick the Saints here.

8 – DALLAS over Indianapolis – Dallas showed that they are still a contender with a big win in Philly last week. That should give them the needed momentum in this big inter-conference game.

7 – JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee – The Jags have proven to be the lesser of two evils here. Playing at home with about 3,600 screaming fans behind them should help.

6 – Detroit over CHICAGO – I immediately bumped this game up a few lines with the Bears’ quarterback change news. Hopefully for them it’s the start of the process of getting Jay Cutler out of Halas Hall. This week's BOLD PREDICTION is that Jay Cutler will NOT be the quarterback of the Chicago Bears week 1 next season.

5 – ARIZONA over Seattle – The Seahawks have started to climb back into the playoff picture the last few weeks. However the Cardinals have been able to maintain their stance on the NFC lead even with injury issues.

4 – Buffalo over OAKLAND – This could be closer than some think, but the Bills should still be able to pull out the road win.

3 – Baltimore over HOUSTON –Houston is still fighting with their slim chances left but the Ravens are just playing too good now.

2 – San Diego over SAN FRANCISCO – The Chargers head up the coast line and should be able to aid in Jim Harbaugh’s eventual relocation to Oakland…or Chicago…or Ann Arbor…or…

1 – CINCINNATI over Denver – I think the Bengals can pull this out, but their inability to perform on the big stage gives me a lot of trepidation.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally here...championship week. Hopefully all of the weeks of waiver wire moves, bold lineup decisions, and Sunday and Monday nail biting have paid off, and you still are left standing with a chance to bring home the title. This week should be all about making the lineup decisions that you can live with even if you happen to lose...does that mean playing it safe and rolling with your stars (even if they haven't necessarily been that this year), or does that mean rolling the dice with a guy you feel good about this week? That's up to you. I'm here to give you a better feel of what to expect from your rookies this week, but it's up to you to pull the trigger and start them. Let's dive in...

Rookies to Start:

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. GB): The matchup isn't ideal, but you aren't sitting him after he dropped 40 points on the Eagles last Sunday (all points listed are in ESPN standard scoring). Johnson has averaged 157 yards from scrimmage and scored 4 TDs in his 3 starts since CJ2K went down, and this week faces a Packers team that ranks 18th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA (measures defensive efficiency). Johnson has RB1 upside again this week (although I doubt he beats the rest of the RB field by 10 points again).

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. SD): The matchup is tough this week, as Cooper is likely to draw Jason Verrett and the Chargers allow the 4th fewest WR points in the league, but if you take away the goose egg Amari put up against Denver, he's put up lines of 7-115, 4-69, and 6-120-2 in the past 4 weeks with at least 8 targets in each game. He'll continue to see lots of volume, and the upside is just too high for you to leave Cooper on the bench despite some shaky weeks this season. He's a rock solid WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jameis gets an interesting matchup this week. The Bucs' offensive game plan is typically run-heavy and limits Jameis's passing volume, but the Bears have allowed some solid passing days on limited attempts this year. They've allowed over 20 QB points on fewer than 25 passing attempts 3 times this season, including 32 to Teddy Bridgewater on 20 attempts last Sunday, and have also allowed at least 21 QB points in each of the past 3 contests. I expect the game script to at least be neutral, and the Bucs pass volume to be limited again, but Jameis has shown a safe QB2 floor, and there is upside for a top-10 QB day.

RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): There is a fear that Karlos will split touches with Mike Gillislee after Gillislee ran so well over the past few weeks, but Williams is the one who is built to be an every down back and I'd expect him to lead the committee. The Cowboys rank 27th in run DVOA, and Karlos averaged about 10 yards per carry in his return from a two-week injury absence. If Karlos is able to take the lead, I like his chances to return RB2 value and get back into the end zone for the first time since week 10.

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 16: @Sea.): The matchup is brutal and we've seen a low floor for Gurley, but his talent and volume give him some flex appeal. The Rams do have some history of being able to run on the Seahawks under Jeff Fisher, getting stat lines of 18-85-1 from Tre Mason and 26-134 out of Zac Stacy against them in the last two seasons, but those games were in St. Louis. This one is in Seattle. I'd lean towards sitting Gurley if you have better options.

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Abdullah is coming off his best game of the year, and the 49ers run defense has been abysmal on the road. San Francisco allows 28.7 points per game to opposing RBs on the road (at least 22 in all 7 road games). They also rank 24th in run DVOA for the year. Abdullah was the overall RB14 in a plus matchup on Monday. He looked explosive, and more importantly, Jim Caldwell went back to him after he lost a fumble in the 2nd half. Betting on the Lions' run game is always a risky proposition, but Abdullah could have week-winning upside if you're willing to trust him with the title on the line.

RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Although Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton are likely to vulture any short TDs, Artis-Payne should lead the backfield in touches yet again. He out-touched Tolbert and Fozzy Whitaker 16-9 a week ago, and this week faces the Falcons who allow the 4th-most RB fantasy points and rank 21st in run DVOA. Artis-Payne's expected volume should make him a low-end RB2 with the upside for more.

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 16: @NO): Yeldon is very iffy for this week, and would likely split touches with Denard Robinson if he's able to give it a go Sunday, but boy does he get a juicy matchup. The Saints have only held 2 teams in their past 10 games under 19 RB points, and they rank 29th in run DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA on throws to running backs. Keep an eye on the injury report and be ready to roll out Yeldon if he seems to be close to 100%.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. StL.): Regardless of matchup, Lockett should remain a borderline WR3 in most formats. He's seen 7 targets in each game since Jimmy Graham went down for the year, and in those games he's been the overall WR28, WR4 and WR21. The Rams have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game for the full season, but have allowed 26.5 per game over the past 4, which would be the-4th most. Don't invent reasons not to play Lockett just becuase it's the title week.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Week 15 was just a taste of what DGB is capable of. He's now put up 14-285-1 over the past 3 games on 22 targets. With Mariota out due to a knee injury, you'd expect Green-Beckham's value to take a minor hit this week, but that might not be the case. Zach Mettenberger did target Dorial 7 times after taking over last Sunday, connecting with him 5 times. Dorial actually has a higher catch rate on throws from Mett than he has on throws from Mariota. His talent and role will keep him firmly on the WR3 radar this week.

WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): If Rishard Matthews is able to come back from his rib injury this week, this is a situation best avoided for fantasy. If Matthews is out again however, Parker remains in play as a WR3 option. He's topped 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 3 of the last 4 games, and the Colts allow the 5th-most WR points in the league. I'd feel more comfortable starting him as a 4th WR in leagues where that's possible, but he has upside once again.

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 16: @Min.): I'm almost inclined to list Tye as a 'Rookie to Start' this week, but I can't advocate starting him over proven studs like Barnidge, Olsen, Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed, etc. Tye has been no lower than the overall TE8 in the past 3 weeks, and he should see an uptick in volume this week with Odell Beckham suspended (I expect the suspension to be upheld). Tye should carry a low TE1 floor this week, regardless of the matchup. Every defense that Tye has started against so far has ranked in the top half of the league in limiting TE fantasy points (4th, 8th, 12th, and 15th). The VIkings rank 12th(tie) vs TEs in terms of points allowed, but also are 26th in pass DVOA on throws to tight ends. Tye should be safe to fire up again.

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. SD): Walford has seen target totals of 5, 7 and 7 over the past 3 games, and the Chargers rank 31st in pass DVOA against tight ends. His point totals haven't been overwhelming (10 total points in those 3 games), so he's more of a desperation streamer, but there is legitimate upside here.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 16: @TB): Despite double-digit carries in games vs. the 24th, 23rd and 20th ranked run defenses in terms of DVOA, Langford has been held to 5 points in each of the past 3 weeks. Meanwhile, Matt Forte has tallied 17, 10 and 15 in those games. This week, they face the Bucs, who rank 4th in run DVOA. Langford is a desperation flex-play at best.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Jones gets a plus matchup this week, but he has proven to be unreliable over and over again. Every time we're convinced he's taken over as the lead back, Alfred Morris rears his ugly head again. This past weekend it was due to a Jones hip injury, and the rookie is day-to-day as a result of it for this week. That should allow Alfred to continue to mix in prominently in week 16. We've seen the big play ability of Jones a few times this year, and he has higher upside than Jeremy Langford this week due to the matchup, but like Langford, Jones is just a desperation flex option.

RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Allen has totaled just 2 fantasy points total in the past two games and was out-carried by Terrance West last week after fumbling for the 2nd straight game. John Harbaugh claims Allen won't be banished to the doghouse this week, but West isn't going to go away and the Steelers allow the 2nd fewest RB fantasy points in the league. Pittsburgh also ranks 7th in run DVOA and 5th in pass DVOA on throws to running backs. Buck isn't worth a starting spot this week.

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 16: @KC): Even with an impressive performance last week in a tough matchup with Seattle, Johnson was still just the overall RB27 for the week. I don't expect him to be even that good this week against a Chiefs defense that is in the top-5 in the league at limiting RB fantasy points and also allows the fewest RB receiving yards.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Funchess managed to cash in for those owners who rolled the dice on him finding a touchdown last weekend, but do you really want to make it double-or-nothing against the #2 defense in the league in terms of wide receiver fantasy points allowed? Funchess is once again a low-volume TD dart throw this week, but not one I'd want to roll out there.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): I'm pretty much listing him for comic relief at this point. Agholor followed a 3-62-1 line in week 14 with a goose egg in week 15. There's no chance you're playing him despite a decent matchup.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Ajayi is a DFS punt option again this week. His role is too undefined to trust him in your fantasy title game. Miami's season is limping to the finish, and Ajayi saw some work with the game last week getting out of hand early. This week things may stay a bit closer, but the Colts have allowed 132.5 RB rushing yards per game in the past 4 weeks, and the Dolphins have consistently under-utilized Lamar Miller. Miller is averaging under 12 carries per game. There is a decent chance that Ajayi gets a bigger share of the load than expected once again this week.

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Most people would probably still shy away from using Diggs despite his 2 TDs last week. The volume just hasn't been there. He's tallied just 11 catches and 120 yards in the past 4 games. With that said, I have a hunch the Minnesota pass volume is a little higher than we're used to this week. The Giants invite shootouts, and with AP nicked up, the Vikings might be inclined to oblige them. New York has faced 35 or more pass attempts in 12 of their 14 games this year, and 40+ in 9 of them. They've also allowed 28.5 WR fantasy points per game over the last 4 weeks, which would be the worst in the league as a season average. No one is questioning Diggs's talent. The increase in volume should make him an upside WR3 option.

WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. NE): Quincy is running as the full time #3 WR for the Jets with Devin Smith on IR, and the Pats' defense focuses on taking out the top options of the opposing pass attack. New England is 5th in pass DVOA against number 1 WRs, 14th in pass DVOA against number 2's, and 27th vs. all other WRs. While I'm hard pressed to mention formats where Enunwa is a viable option, he should be a decent bet to set career bests in catches and yards (currently 5 and 50).

TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Williams put up a 5-31 line against the best fantasy TE defense in the league last week with Crockett Gillmore now done for the year. This week he gets a Pittsburgh defense that has been good against tight ends, but they have given up 75+ yards to the position 6 times in 14 games. Williams is nothing more than a DFS punt play, but 5 catches and 50+ yards wouldn't be surprising.

TE Blake Bell, SF (Wk. 16: @Det.): The Belldozer has 40+ yards in 3 of the past 4 games, and is fresh off receiving 8 targets last week despite Vance McDonald being active. The Lions have allowed 11 TDs to tight ends in 14 games, and rank 30th in pass DVOA against the position. If last week's volume repeats itself, Bell should at least threaten to crack the top-12 tight ends for the week.

That's all I've got this week. Hopefully it helps you to the league title. For those of you with a week 17 championship game or avid DFS players, I will do a quick column for week 17 as well. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always...good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

Happy Holidays!

Last week we had a bit of a Christmas present for you with another pretty solid week. You should be close to if not at the top of your pool by now – you’re welcome! Here is hoping that the picks just keep on giving for you! Have a happy and safe holiday season everyone!

Week 16 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

16 – KANSAS CITY over Cleveland – The Chiefs haven’t lost a game seemingly since VHS was a thing. They host the Browns this week…Merry Christmas Chiefs!

15 – SEATTLE over St Louis – Seattle continues to roll on their way to the post-season. Russell Wilson continues to shine as his backfield continues to crumble.

14 – BUFFALO over Dallas – So many fans will be watching this game just thinking about Super Bowl matchups in the early 90s – Cowboy fans more so since they actually won those games.

13 – TAMPA BAY over Chicago – It’s the Lovie Bowl! New Lovie will have the young Bucs hungry to play their hardest against Old Lovie.

12 – OAKLAND over San Diego – The Raiders were originally on a lower line, but add in the emotions of what will now be Charles Woodson’s last home game and a Raider win is almost a sure thing…helps that they’re playing the Chargers.

11 – MINNESOTA over New York Giants – No O’dell Beckham for the Giants means that they won’t have a way to combat the stingy Viking defense.

10 – Carolina over ATLANTA – The thriller in Jersey last week might just be the last chance of seeing a not round number in the L column for the Panthers this season. If you don’t think Cam is the MVP, you’re doing it wrong.

9 – DETROIT over San Francisco – The Lions offense seems to have returned a bit. Doesn’t matter though, they get to play the 49ers anyway.

8 – Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE – Antonio Brown has been called the Jerry Rice of this era…can you argue against that? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that ANTONIO BROWN WILL HAVE ANOTHER 200 YARD RECEVING GAME.

7 – ARIZONA over Green Bay – Ladies and gentlemen, introducing David Johnson. Packer fans will probably be sick of hearing his name by the end of the night.

6 – DENVER over Cincinnati – This can’t be! Monday Night Football actually has a top matchup of the week? Not two team battling for the top spot…in the draft?? What a concept! The Broncos defense will take advantage of the new Bengals starting QB in this one.

5 – Houston over TENNESSEE – Houston seems to have taken control of the AFC South after a big win in Indy last week. Their reward is a game against the lowly Titans with a backup quarterback.

4 – NEW ORLEANS over Jacksonville – The Saints need to start re-building – a Drew Brees foot injury could very well be the nudge needed to take that step.

3 – NEW YORK JETS over New England – Who knew that this late season matchup of old rivals would actually end up being a good game … with the possibility of the Jets winning?

2 – MIAMI over Indianapolis – Miami has been a big disappointment this year. The only other team that would have the same consideration for disappointment of the year are the Colts. At least the Dolphins get this game at home.

1 – Washington over PHILADELPHIA – The Redskins should pull out a big road win in the race to see who will be the tallest midget in the NFC East.

Well, the end is here. It's championship week, and hopefully you're fighting for a title and not a few scraps for third place. If you listened to us, I suspect you've at least made it rather far in your league. This week, we've got some interesting matchups and a lot of games in weird time slots. Just remember that there's a Thursday game, most of the games are on Saturday, there's 2 Sunday games and a Monday night game as well. That's a lot of football to watch!

This week we really like Cam Newton's matchup against the Falcons - he was a top 5 QB last week and should approach that again. At wideout, we still like Dontrelle Inman, but think you should maybe look elsewhere if you have Larry Fitzgerald, who has struggled mightily these last few weeks. Finally, we really like Cameron Brate, but you were probably starting him anyways. Good luck this week!