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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! After a long, arduous season, we’ve finally arrived at the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve made enough of the right moves to still have something to play for going forward. Week 14 served as a stark reminder of just how volatile this game can be in a one-week sample size. From Bucky Irving departing early with injury, to Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze both scoring 2 TDs out of nowhere, crazy things can happen when you boil this game down to just one week, and that’s what we do in the playoffs.

If you always lean towards consensus with your start/sit decisions, those decisions are going to work out in your favor more often than not in the long run, but these playoff matches are not played in the long run. My recommendations below are going to lean closer to consensus with some small tweaks here or there if there’s a matchup, player, or role I feel strongly about for the week, but you don’t have to adhere to these recommendations. It’s your team, and everything is on the line this week. Don’t be afraid to go against consensus if you’ve got players you feel strongly about starting. There’s nothing sweeter than getting a win because you went against the grain and made a bold lineup decision that worked out. Just be prepared for a little extra trash talk if those bold choices don’t work out. With all of that in mind, let’s get to this week’s rookies.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 15…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 15: @ NO): Daniels had appeared to hit a rookie wall a few weeks ago, but has righted the ship in his last two games finishing as the QB1 and QB2 in weeks 12 & 13. We know he has a huge weekly ceiling, and while the Saints allow just the 10^th-fewest QB points per game, they also give up a ton of yardage. They’ve allowed the 5^th-most passing yards per game (261 ypg), and they’ve given up rushing lines of 4-49 to Justin Herbert, 10-75 to Bo Nix, 3-29 to Baker Mayfield, and 5-59 to Drew Lock just last week. Daniels should have no trouble putting up both rushing and passing yards in this game. If he throws for 1 TD, he’ll probably be a fringe QB1. Any more than that, and he’s going to be a solid top-10 option. The ceiling here is too big to bench for anything but an elite QB.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 15: vs. LAR): Guerendo is battling an injury suffered late in last Sunday’s game against the Bears, but he practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday and has a real chance to play. If he plays, he needs to be in your starting lineup. Guerendo put up 128 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs against the Bears last week, and the Rams are not much better against the run than Chicago. LA ranks 22nd in FTN’s run defense DVOA and has allowed the 14^th-most RB points per game. Isaac has top-10 upside if he’s active.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Bal.): For 6 consecutive weeks, Nabers has finished no higher than the PPR WR22, and no lower than the WR28. Tommy DeVito stepping back in at QB this week doesn’t change much. The Ravens allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game, and Nabers will almost certainly hit a 30%+ target share again in a pass-heavy game script. If his streak of 20-something finishes comes to an end this week, I think it’s more likely to happen because he scores too many points rather than too few.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 15: vs. TB): If McConkey plays this week, he should be playing for you. The rookie has finished as a top-30 PPR receiver in 5 of his last 6 games, including four top-20 finishes, and he’s the WR14 in points per game over that span. Tampa Bay allows the 10^th-most WR points per game, so McConkey should have no problem posting a useful performance Sunday as long as he’s able to return from the injury. He should be treated as a WR2 this week.

TE Brock Bowers. LV (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Bowers posted his lowest target share since week 4 last week at just 15%, and he still finished just 1.3 PPR points short of a top-12 finish. I expect a bounce back this week against a Falcons’ defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Even if Desmond Ridder gets the start this week, I expect the Raiders to make a point to scheme the ball to Bowers more often than it went in his direction last week. He’s a top-6 TE option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Ind.): Nix posted one of his worst games of the year ahead of the bye against an inconsistent Browns’ defense. He threw for just 1 TD in a game where the Broncos scored 41 points. I like his chances at a bounce back against a mediocre Colts’ pass defense this week. Indy ranks just 18^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed 3 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to reach 20+ fantasy points. It’s a little worrisome that Nix’s rushing upside has all but vanished in recent weeks – he’s totaled 5 or fewer rushing yards in 5 of his last 6 games, but he’s also finished as a top-12 QB in 4 of those games. He’s a fringe QB1 for me this week despite the recent lack of rushing production.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 15: @ Min.): I wouldn’t be thrilled to start Caleb in single QB formats, but think he could be a great QB2 option this week. Williams has posted a 95.0 passer rating or better in all 4 games with Thomas Brown calling the plays, and he’s thrown for multiple TDs in each of the last 3 games, all against defenses that haven’t been allowing passing TDs. He threw for 2 scores last week against the 49ers, something only 4 QBs did before him. The week before that, he threw for 3 TDs against a Detroit defense that hasn’t let any other QB this season throw for more than 1. And the week before that, he threw for 340 yards and 2 scores against these Vikings. He threw half of the passing TDs the Vikings have allowed in their past 6 games. The matchup still isn’t a great one – Minnesota is 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 13^th-fewest QB points per game – but I’m not sure I want to bet against Caleb’s recent hot streak. I’d view him as a high-end QB2 this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 15: @ LAC): Bucky aggravated his back injury last week against the Raiders and aggravated his fantasy managers in the process. Hopefully he can return this week, but he’s not practicing as of Wednesday. If Bucky is able to play, I would treat him as a solid RB2 option. He’s finished as a top-20 back in 6 of his last 7 healthy games, and top-10 in each of his last 3. The Chargers are a tough defense – they allow the 6^th-fewest RB points per game – but two of Bucky’s recent top-20 finishes came against top-8 RB defenses (Baltimore and Atlanta). Unfortunately, the injury is a real concern this week, and Bucky doesn’t play until the late afternoon Sunday. If you have comparable options that play earlier, and we don’t have clarity on Irving’s status yet, start them.

RBs Braelon Allen & Isaiah Davis, NYJ (Wk. 15: @ Jax.): This is contingent on Breece Hall being out again, but both Allen and Davis are viable RB3 options this week in a good matchup. With Hall out in week 14, both Allen and Davis were on the field for more than 50% of the snaps and handled at least 13 touches. They split the playing time almost down the middle. The Jaguars allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game, so there should be enough points to be had for both backs. If I had to choose one to start, I’d lean slightly towards Davis, who played the majority of the long down & distance snaps and out-targeted Braelon 6-to-4. He also got 3 opportunities in the red zone compared to two for Allen, but we’re really splitting hairs to pick one. Both are playable if Hall is out again.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 15: vs. NE): If you have Harrison on your roster, you likely have to ride the roller coaster again this week. Harrison has had a lot of ups-and-downs this season, largely due to Trey McBride’s constant presence as the #1 option in the passing game, but Harrison has finished as a WR3 or better in 3 of the last 4 games and gets a favorable matchup this week. New England has allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. He’ll likely face shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, but that hasn’t prevented other WR1s from putting up strong games against the Pats. Per ESPN, New England has allowed the 7^th-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers over the last 8 games. Harrison remains a boom-or-bust WR2/3 option.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr. JAX (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Thomas has been a picture of consistency for much of this season. – he’s been the PPR WR10 since week 4 and finished as a WR2 or better in 6 of 10 games in that span. He should be a solid WR2/3 option this week, but I have a little concern over the matchup and the QB situation. The Jets allow the fewest WR points per game and have a pair of excellent perimeter corners in DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner, and while Thomas has put up strong performances in each of his last 3 games with Mac Jones at QB, there are long stretches where Jones seems to forget Thomas is even on the field. Last Sunday, Thomas finished with 8-86 on 12 targets. Mac Jones threw 31 passes. In the first 21 pass attempts, Thomas had 0 catches on 3 targets. He put all of his production and garnered 9 of his targets in Mac’s final 10 attempts of the game. He didn’t look Thomas’ way until the Jaguars got desperate. If that happens again this week, against this secondary, the production might not live up to what Thomas has been doing in recent weeks. I’d still start him this week, but if you’re torn between Thomas and another option, I might err on the side of the other option.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 15: @ Cle.): Worthy has now finished as a top-36 WR in 4 straight weeks, and while some of those finishes have been aided by bye weeks, he’s pulled in at least 4 catches in each game and has a 75% catch rate in that span (he had just a 46.5% catch rate prior to that stretch). This week he faces the Browns, who play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. Worthy’s target rate vs. man coverage is 10% higher than his target rate vs. zone. The Browns also have allowed the 3^rd-most completions of 20+ yards this season, which plays right into Worthy’s strengths as well. I’d view him as a WR3 with upside to finish even higher if he’s able to catch a deep ball or two.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 15: @ Ari.): I don’t think Maye’s outlook for this week is all that much worse than Caleb Williams or Bo Nix, but unlike that duo, I wouldn’t consider Maye if I were looking for a fringe QB1. We know he’s got a safe floor – he’s finished as a top-20 QB in every full game he’s played this season – but he hasn’t finished higher than the QB12 in any of his last 5 games. In their last 6 games, the Cardinals have allowed just 1 QB to throw for multiple TDs, and just one QB to throw for 250+ yards. The Patriots have a Vegas team total below 20 points this week, so I wouldn’t count on Maye to break through and give you a QB1 performance. I’d treat him as a mid-range QB2.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Bal.): Tracy continues to see the bulk of the Giants’ backfield work, but the offense has somehow regressed since moving on from Daniel Jones. They’ve played 3 games with Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock under center. All 3 were against mediocre or bad run defenses, and Tracy has averaged 15 touches and 73 scrimmage yards per game in those contests.  He salvaged his fantasy days with TDs in the last two weeks, and finding the end zone will be especially important against the Ravens this week. Baltimore ranks 5^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 8^th-fewest RB points per game. I don’t expect Tracy to have the same level of efficiency he’s had in the last 3 games, and with a Vegas team total of just 13 points, counting on any Giant to score a TD this week feels like wishful thinking. Obviously, Tracy is still in the RB3 mix this week due to his workload, but I don’t feel good about his outlook this week.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 15: @ SF): Corum has handled 8 touches in 3 games this season, and 2 of them were in the last 2 weeks. He’s seen his role grow to the point where he has some RB4 appeal on a weekly basis (non-PPR leagues), but it’s not nearly enough to consider him in lineups in most normal 12-team leagues, even against a 49ers’ team that allows the 10^th-most RB points per game.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 15: vs. NE): The Cardinals have played 5 games this season that were decided by 20+ points, and Benson has handled 8 or more touches in 4 of them. In the last two games where he got to 8+ touches, he finished as an RB2. I’m not saying it’s likely that the Cards will win by 20+ this weekend (they’re 6-point favorites), but the Patriots are an opponent where it’s at least possible. Regardless of the margin, a positive game script favors Benson for the RB2 touches over Emari Demercado, and the Patriots allow the 7^th-most RB points per game and rank 28^th in run defense DVOA. It’s a great matchup where Benson should see a little more usage than usual, but it’ll likely take a blowout win for him to get enough work to be at all useful in your lineup.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 15: @ Det.): Davis has handled more than 6 touches just once in the last 7 games, in the snow game against the 49ers. I expect his role to be limited again this week unless the Bills win in a surprising blowout (they’re 2.5-point underdogs in Detroit). This game has the highest projected point total of the week, so there could be some additional TD hope for Davis this week, but the Lions are one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. The matchup seems to favor Ty Johnson for backup work over Davis.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 15: @ Min.): From week 8 through week 13, Odunze earned at least 6 targets every game, but he finished as the PPR WR20 or worse in all 6 of those games. In week 14, he was targeted just 5 times, and he finished as the WR12, scoring his first two TDs since week 3. The volume has been there for Odunze, even if the production hasn’t, and it’ll probably be there again this week. The Bears are 7-point underdogs this week and attempted 48 passes in the first meeting with the Vikings. Unfortunately, that turned into just 5-39-0 for Odunze on 10 targets in that first meeting, even though Minnesota allows the most WR points per game. I’m hopeful he’ll produce more this time around if the volume is similar, but you’re likely going to need a TD for a performance that helps you win this week since he’s averaged just 4 catches and 48 yards per game in his last 7 contests.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 15: @ Det.): Coleman hasn’t played since November 3^rd. He’s practicing this week and looks to be on track to return, but I wouldn’t expect him to jump into a full-time role in his first game back. We know Coleman can provide production via splash plays – 10 of his 22 catches this year have gone for over 20 yards – and the Lions have allowed the 7^th-most completions this season of 20+ yards, so there is upside to chase. Putting him in your lineup means taking a leap of faith that he’ll get enough opportunities to cash in on a couple explosive plays.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Legette has finished outside the top-40 PPR receivers in 3 of the last 4 weeks. Bryce Young’s connection with Adam Thielen and David Moore has been improving in recent weeks, but he and Legette have connected on just 13 of 26 targets over the last month, and pass volume could be a touch lower than usual this week with the Panthers favored to win for the first time in 33 games. The Cowboys allow the 11^th-most WR points per game, but I wouldn’t expect anything beyond the normal 50 or so yards Legette has been putting up in recent weeks. Whether or not he helps your fantasy lineup will depend on if he gets into the end zone. I’d bet against it as the Panthers haven’t thrown for multiple TDs in a game since October.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 15: @ LAC): McMillan’s 4-59-2 performance last week would qualify as at least a mild shock since he hadn’t scored a TD since week 1, and hadn’t topped 40 receiving yards in a game all season. It would take some stones to push in the chips to bet on a repeat performance this week against a Charger defense that ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA. The 7 targets for McMillan last weekend were a promising sign moving forward, but I’m not sure one spike game is enough for me to overlook the other 8 games he played this season and plug him into the lineup with my season at stake. Last week was McMillan’s first finish as a WR3 or better this season.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Sanders returned from his neck injury last week, but as expected he split the workload with Tommy Tremble after Tremble showed out the week prior. Sanders was in a route on 59% of the team dropbacks, but was limited to just 1 target. Dallas allows the 13^th-fewest TE points per game. With a full workload, Sanders is a mid-range TE2, and we don’t know if he’ll have a full workload.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): Rattler has started 3 games this season. He was benched with fewer than 7 fantasy points in two of them. He finished as the QB20 for the week in the other, in a week with 4 teams on byes. It would be optimistic to hope Rattler finishes as a top-24 QB this week.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Ind.): For a fleeting moment in early November, it seemed Estime was taking over the Denver backfield, but that seems like a distant memory now as Audric has handled just 6 of the Broncos’ 48 backfield opportunities in the last 2 games. You never know how Sean Payton will reshuffle the deck in this backfield, especially after a bye week, but I wouldn’t count on any significant changes for Estime this week. The Colts do allow the 5^th-most RB points per game, so there is upside here if Estime had any kind of significant workload.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 15: @ Hou.): Even with Raheem Mostert sidelined last week, Wright was on the field for just 12 snaps and handled 4 touches. That workload against the Texans’ defense, which allows the 5^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA, is not a recipe for fantasy success.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 15: vs. LAR): In the last 4 weeks, Pearsall has 1 catch for 5 yards on 5 targets, despite running 84 routes in that span. He’s running wind sprints, and if any WR on this team will get squeaky wheel treatment this week, it’s Deebo Samuel.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Coker has been sidelined for about a month with a quad injury, and in that time the Panthers have been playing their best football of the season. They seem to have the WR roles pretty well worked out, and there isn’t really a great fit for Coker to step back in seamlessly. If Coker takes on a full-time role, David Moore is the likeliest receiver to go to the bench, but Moore plays on the perimeter, and Coker is better suited to the slot, where WR1 Adam Thielen resides. I wouldn’t feel comfortable plugging Coker into lineups in his first week back, even though this is a decent matchup. I’d rather see how his usage shakes out for a week first. His return could serve as a downgrade for Thielen as well.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Ind.): Franklin has caught more than 2 passes in a game just once all season. There’s no compelling reason to expect that to change this week.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 15: @ Den.): Mitchell is mostly an afterthought whenever the other Colts receivers are healthy, and Josh Downs looks ready to return this week after missing the team’s week 13 contest. If Downs somehow does sit again, Mitchell is nothing more than a WR5 dart throw against a Denver defense that allows the 11^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 15: @ Hou.): Washington has been more involved in recent weeks, totaling 12 targets in the last 5 weeks, but he’s topped 20 scrimmage yards just once all season. The floor is low, and there isn’t much of a ceiling to chase.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 15: @ NO): McCaffrey has totaled just 5 catches in the last 7 games and hasn’t hit 5 PPR points in a game since week 3.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 15: @ Ari.): Polk has earned just 5 total targets in the last 5 games. There’s nothing to see here.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 15 : @ Ten.): Burton has earned zero targets on 8 routes run in the last 2 weeks, and faces a Titans’ defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 15: @ Jax.): Corley went from a 60% route participation rate in week 13 to being a healthy scratch in week 14 as Allen Lazard returned from IR. The Jets might change things up now that they’re officially eliminated from playoff contention, but Corley is off the radar for now.

Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 15 : vs. TB): Vidal’s role grew dramatically in LA’s 2^nd game without JK Dobbins, as he was on the field for 53% of the offensive snaps. He was still out-carried by Gus Edwards 10-to-8, but he ran 5 more receiving routes than Edwards and was on the field significantly more in passing situations. This week’s opponent, Tampa Bay, allows more RB receptions and receiving yards than any other team in the league. The Chargers don’t throw to running backs all that often, but JK Dobbins averaged 3 targets per game this year. If Vidal can earn 3+ targets this week, and be close to a 50-50 split in carries with Edwards again, he has RB3 upside in this matchup.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Ind.): Vele was a disappointment in week 13, putting up just 1-16 on 4 targets after finishing as a WR3 or better in the 3 games prior, but I like his chances at a bounce back performance coming out of the bye. Vele has excelled against zone coverage this season, averaging nearly a half a PPR point per route run against zone, and no team plays zone at a higher rate than the Indianapolis Colts. The Browns are a man-heavy pass defense, so it wasn’t a shock that they were able to slow Vele down a couple weeks ago. The Colts should have a lot more trouble containing him. I expect he’ll score double-digit PPR points this week, and he’s a passable WR4 if you don’t love your other options this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.